[I] TLLOLOTGDTM - Page 101

After Day 2, when you said scum only had one play possible, I immediatly thought "Roleblock Soniv, kill Alzadar".
But then I thought about "Roleblock Alzadar, kill Soniv", and I wondered why they wouldn't do that instead. Actually, I wondered which one of the two you were talking about since it meant 2 different plays open to them (I asked you what you were thinking about but didn't insist because I didn't want to give scum ideas, then I asked again more directly at the start of Day 3 + Show Spoiler +), and whether I missed one element that made one of them impossible.

Something that I remembered was the discussion about roleblocking Cixah, and how you were surprised that it was possible (and people insisted that if the Innocent Child wasn't revealed Cixah was on the choping block). Also how ComaDose pretty much killed himself by how tightly he tied himself to Ghandi (more specifically Ghandi flipping red).
With some people doubting Soniv's and Alzadar's claims, it would be easy to put them both in the same "if you don't die tonight then you're scum" situation.

Reasoning was that scum don't need to kill Alzadar, they just need him to die. I thought that for you the only scum play possible was to kill the medic, and that if it didn't happen you'd suspect Alzadar. It actually looked like a very good scum play to me, because it was reliable, and it would made us lynch our medic ourselves.

From the way you've posted if looks like either you didn't consider it at all (hence why maybe I'm mindfucking myself and looking too deep for manipulations), or you dismissed it because it wouldn't be believable and thus not be a good scum play.

At this point it doesn't matter because they won't be able to kill Alzadar next night (he protected Soniv last time, so he can protect himself), and the following one he won't be protected for sure. So they just have to kill anyone else (or their next biggest target) N3, then Alzadar N4.
While if they killed Alzadar instead, they'd have to kill Soniv N3 (since they don't have a roleblocker anymore), which made them somewhat more predictable.

Another reason they could have went for the parity cop over the medic, and I assume the one you're thinking of yourself, is that while both have to die, both are pretty much technically VT at this point (no meaningful use, or use at all of their powers) and Soniv is much more dangerous as a "townie thinker" than Alzadar (don't take it badly Alzadar, I think it's pretty obvious to everyone that Soniv was one of the biggest contributers).
And considering today's activity I don't think scum's success on that part needs further explaining...

Their absolute best lynches next night are Cixah, Alzadar and mordek, since they're pretty much confirmed, killing them leaves more "targets". In that case I'd be out of ideas for Day 4, so it's the worst case for me.
Assuming they wanted us to lynch Alzadar/make him seem suspicious (contrary to mordek who in his claim said he was out of vials, so he's VT like Cixah), that leaves Cixah and Mordek as candidates.
They could also go for the contributers again (let's be honest, Alzadar/Cixah/Mordek don't post much). In that case it's either you or me. If it's me, then best scum guess was mordek because I questioned his claim. If you, then split between mordek and Requizen.
If Requizen died, if could have pointed to you (or trying to frame you, what with killing the only guy to doubt you).
If Ghandi died... I'd probably look at Requizen then.

Obviously now that I've laid that out there for anyone to see it doesn't matter anymore.
So I won't take into account whoever gets shot because it's a whole WIFOM avenue.

I believe he's scum. There, I'm a nice guy, I put the TL;DR at the top this time.

I noticed a pattern in his accusations, they more or less go this way:
- he has a scum read on Soniv day 1, also Ghandi (once several people called him out on it).
Actually starts a bandwagon on Cixah which had crap reasoning (basically thought 55%/45% and 51%/49% is a weird way of expressing reads and trying not to commit; Ghandi straight-up said "I'm aboard the train choo-choo!", Alzadar said "He's been parroting Wave so far").
Tries to start a bandwagon on Tolkien (who we thought was weird, but I can see scum afraid of him, since he's only ambiguous to us), while defending Wave (like owb).
Night 1, Tolkien, who he accused but survived, gets killed.

- Day 2 he's still reading Ghandi most but actually votes Soniv. Wave was pushing Soniv hard at that point, also note for later: why vote (and push a bit himself) Soniv if he poisoned him? He later says he's willing to change his vote... for Ghandi. I give him a pass there because most of us were accusing both Ghandi and Soniv (I know I was, although I put Soniv above Ghandi), and although he said he valued consistency he did mention Ghandi and Soniv as early as D1 (he always said Ghandi was is #1 but ended up voting Soniv first though).
His list (mid-D2) gives as top town the IC and 2 people widely seen as town by then (Wave and myself), and as scum the 2 people everyone was suspecting (Ghandi and Soniv), rest can pretty much be summed up as "lurkers, no real read". I don't know Wave's impression as a vet but re-reading it in the current situation (stumbled upon it while re-reading ComaDose's filter) it's like the perfect "blend in" post, parroting the popular opinions without committing anything (all reads are one-liners too). Note how he later makes up a justification for it without being prompted.
He only made a more in-depth post when Wave quizzed him... about himself. To his credit he didn't panic nor try to deflect, which would have looked scummy. When Ghandi questions him (and after the "tiebreaker" shenanigan by owb) he switched his vote to him (eg. Ghandi), though.

His play Day 2 can actually be very well summed up by himself there:

Nope, you're hiding in the crowd instead.

Then once Soniv claims, he follows Soniv on Alzadar, then Wave on Coma.
Night 2, Soniv, who he accused but survived, gets killed. He also notices how Alzadar and Soniv were saved because their play was consistent with their claims, and he starts putting "hints" ('cause you know... subtle) to prepare his own claim.

- Day 3, he doesn't post much. He tries accusing me though, and when confronted with his own play springs his plan and claims. I aleady addressed it so I'll direct you to the relevant post + Show Spoiler [trimmed] +. TL;DR: how convenient.
I was actually almost certain he was scum at that point. I held back on purpose because I wanted to see his reaction but not show that I'd read through it. Now the cat's out of the bag I guess.
Also notice the red lines. That's the pattern I noticed first, that started my investigation. And when I saw him accuse me and Asmo, I could already fill in the blank for Night 3: Alaric, who he accused but survived, gets killed.
That's part of why I told you that I didn't want to voice my opinions so early, Wave, because I don't feel like dying. My initial plan was to get a condensed version of my conclusions in a "right-before-night-deadline" post like Soniv did before dying, just in case (with the "if X dies, look at Y" part from my previous post), and if I wasn't killed go through my guess' filter and do a post like this (although as you can see I expected it to be mordek, eg. Wave or me dying because we both expressed doubt toward him, although I took care not to do so too obviously).


The last things I can pick up from his filter are that his "Asmo/Req relationship" post which usefulness was questioned by you, was followed by that one. It isn't incriminating, but I guess you can point out that he won't care about owb's filter since they barely had any exchange.

I'll try not to take it into account. Keeping my vote on Asmodeus for now, and whatever happens tonight...
With what we said, eg. you confirming that you doubt mordek's claim, and my huge post, the reasonable outcome would be "You or I get killed tonight", 'cept obviously with my whole chart laid out for them scum won't do what I expect them to anymore.
Anyway, with Alzadar protecting himself the next best kill is Cixah.

And yes, this means I write "townie" under Requizen (don't hold it against me too much Wave, till the end ) and Ghandi (be careful not to hit the roof by jumping too high, Jeff).
So... whatever happens Night 3, really. I'm still mildly annoyed to have put all this out now instead of later, but ah well. Half of it is obsolete now anyway.

actually poisoner can too with the antidote. But really nobody else yo.