Why does everyone think there's a cop in this setup? People just started talking about cops and now all of a sudden we have one.

Besides, even if we did, town would have: Vig/RB/Cop.

Seems imba, no?

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 03:36 GMT

#2637

So are you still going to shoot Lian?

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 03:36 GMT

#2638

I really won't complain a whole lot if you do tbh, I just want the three people voting me to die horrifically.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 03:39 GMT

#2641

Eh, I feel like lian's responses are all pretty reasonable.

Idk. Idk. Do what you gotta do grack. I'll lynch through the people on my wagon eventually.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 03:43 GMT

#2643

On the flip side, you can take solace in the fact that he'll probably get lynched if the other three don't flip scum.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 03:45 GMT

#2645

And now he's martyring.

Ugh.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 04:03 GMT

#2650

Bah. I knew I didn't want to kill lian. =/

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 04:06 GMT

#2653

Yeah, it pretty much does.

So we're down to only a few lynch targets, and you can get another shot off on someone suspicious. This works.

You're probably just going to end up shooting either Slam or KSC, depending on who we don't lynch though.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 04:08 GMT

#2656

You shot twice in one night?

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 04:11 GMT

#2658

Yeah, I don't trust what dead mafia tells me about other players that I think are town.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 04:28 GMT

#2659

So if a mafia shot was missing, who's the first person mafia targets with a shot?

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 04:36 GMT

#2661

With the knowledge that we now know that a mafia shot is missing, it's incredibly likely that there's a mafia inside of the high profile players who all normally take shots early.

Let's take a look at the player list of people left and why they would be shot night 1:

Obi - Flattering, but nobody is going to shoot me night one.
Damdred - Not a night one shot.
Grack - Confirmed vigi, isn't dead. Obviously wasn't shot.
Holyflare - Possibly shot, condemned by mafia on their death bed.
Palmar - Another possible shot.
KSC - Not a night one shot.
Slam - Slam never dies. Ever. Not a night one shot.
Storr - Maybe. I'd probably need someone to talk it over with me.

So in the end, we're left with the most likely night 1 kills: Holyflare, Palmar, and Storr.

After yesterday, there's no chance Holyflare is scum. He already knows the benefit of CFDing onto another target with such controversy surrounding players the way that lynch went down. And there's no reason to believe that he wouldn't have been able to pull that off.

So we're left with Storr and Palmar.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 04:37 GMT

#2662

On October 12 2014 13:30 Grackaroni wrote:
Blazinghand/HF were the only realistic shots for mafia to make

I think you might be letting confirmation bias affect you. I just don't see the scum motivation in HF's posting at all.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 04:42 GMT

#2665

On October 12 2014 13:41 Grackaroni wrote:

Show nested quote +

I'm saying those are the people who could have realistically been shot by mafia night one.
Palmar was a non-presence and Storr did nothing but tunnel Lian and Lian wasn't mafia

You are grossly underestimating the number of times I've seen Palmar get shot night one, even when he wasn't doing anything.

Especially when he wasn't doing anything.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 04:47 GMT

#2667

On October 12 2014 13:46 StorrZerg wrote:
liam shot was good will help town focus. lets be honest he was probably going to be the lynch today if he wasn't shot

Not really. I explained why this wouldn't be the case. =/

Regardless, if Storr was wrong this whole time and got fixated on Lian, especially knowing that he isn't mafia, mafia probably wouldn't shoot him for being that wrong.

So, really, the only kills left are Holyflare and Palmar. And I don't think Holyflare is scum.

Palmar is the most likely poisoner lynch.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 04:56 GMT

#2670

There has to be a poisoner. There were three kills.

One kill from mafia, one kill from you. Where did the third come from?

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 05:00 GMT

#2672

So the setup we're talking about is:

Medic/Vig/RB

This is the most likely setup if there isn't a cop. The issue is that would this be the setup we would be dealing with while dealing with 4 scum. Would we be given the weakest roles possible, with the exception of Vigilante?

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

October 12 2014 05:05 GMT

#2674

Theoretically. I know the WIFOM and stuff involved but I still think that we should lynch Palmar if we find the last mafia.

I can get behind a KSC lynch regardless of the poisoner.