TL Mafia LXVIII: Fanfic Crossover Edition - Page 102

On September 17 2014 05:47 Palmar wrote:

Who says I don't?

On September 17 2014 05:48 Hopeless1der wrote:

basically what marv is arguing with palmar about. In palmar's world view, millers ALWAYS 100% get the lynch.

On September 17 2014 05:49 justanothertownie wrote:

I know that?!

On September 17 2014 05:48 justanothertownie wrote:

Do you want me to pull some quotes from hogwarts?

On September 17 2014 05:50 IAmRobik wrote:
I don't think I'm willing to lynch someone who rayn wants to lynch today. Even if it is scum!plaamammar. If town!rayn wanted us to lynch someone, he wouldn't scream about it like a whiney little girl and he would explain it instead of just screaming wahhhhhh lynch palmmmmmmar wahhhhhhh

On September 17 2014 05:50 marvellosity wrote:
we're going to lynch kush and cross our fingers.

time to stop worrying

On September 17 2014 05:50 Hopeless1der wrote:

and THIS game...Palmar just doesnt care to lynch the miller claim? ergo people are up in arms about it.

On October 18 2013 20:47 Palmar wrote:
Reposting for format.



No, I would never say anything dumb like that.

Here is why claiming SAM is incredibly mafia favored.

A single cop checking randomly has a 1/22 (24 - himself - lynchee) chance of checking you on night 1, that's 4.5% chance. The chance slowly goes up throughout the game, but only in the absolute far late game does there exist a significant chance a SAM exists.

We don't know if there is a SAM in this game. If the setup was open there'd be an argument for claiming, in fact in a completely open game a SAM is a power role. However in a closed setup, there is no point in claiming it. Optimal play would be to simply play well enough so cops wouldn't even think about checking you. The fact that you claimed means for some reason you yourself believe that you will be unable to keep yourself out of the red-ish zone for this game. I'm not sure if this is lack of confidence in your own play, or if this is because you're scum. But I see no reason to play sub-optimally as town.

As mafia, the benefits of claiming SAM are amazing, it basically neutralizes the cop against one of your team. You're taking a weapon away from the town. You'll still be analyzed as before, but you can never be attacked as scum through a check. This also means the chance of hitting mafia goes down from 6/22 (27,2%) on the first night to 5/21 (23,8%) for a cop.

This benefit becomes even more important if the mafia has a godfather (5/22 to 4/21).

So the question remains, why are you afraid of a cop check? There's an entire team of mafia players whose goal is to play towny enough to not get checked, and they have to do it with the burden of knowledge and the inherent scummyness that leads to mafia lynches all the time anyway, a miller would be completely free of those things, and yet doesn't have the balls to avoid a cop check with good play?

##Vote Mocsta

On September 17 2014 05:51 Palmar wrote:

Tbh, in rayn's defense, I'm giving him nothing to work with.

On September 17 2014 05:50 marvellosity wrote:
we're going to lynch kush and cross our fingers.

time to stop worrying

On September 17 2014 05:51 IAmRobik wrote:
If we no-lynch today because of indecisive little girls, I'm going to have the mads