EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LVII - Page 3
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
| ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
| ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On August 01 2014 12:16 GlowingBear wrote: If meatpudding is mafia, then we probably have a mafia on him also. You see, if I were mafia and if I had two partners as the main bus with no probability of shifting focus, I'd vote for the most probable to die. It would confirm me as town, somehow. Have in mind I switched around 3 hours before the lynch, not giving enough time for mafia to react. So probably mafia chose to lynch meatpudding and, if this is right, Teemu or cya still could be mafia. But that's only if you believe that mafia had short time to react. You may consider that the remaining mafia was on 666, clearing Teemu and cya, narrowing the people you should push. BASED solely on that, we have two good starts at day2: (1)start pushing meatpudding and, if nothing happens,lynch him to at least get his alignment. It would help a lot to solve the game. Or (2), pushing meatpudding remaining voters to see what they can give to us to confirm this theory or not. My preferred method would be (1). This is...deeply flawed analysis. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
Or town loses with an incorrect vigi shot N1. It would be probably the shittiest setup evar. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
If meatpudding is mafia, then we probably have a mafia on him also. You see, if I were mafia and if I had two partners as the main bus with no probability of shifting focus, I'd vote for the most probable to die. It would confirm me as town, somehow. Have in mind I switched around 3 hours before the lynch, not giving enough time for mafia to react. So probably mafia chose to lynch meatpudding and, if this is right, Teemu or cya still could be mafia. Again, assumes 3 mafia. To that I say, | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On August 01 2014 13:56 Teemursu wrote: And in a two mafia setup, is it likely that we have a cop and a GF? Oh, this? Maybe, idk. It would be hilarious to essentially have a dead role. Balancewise that SOUNDS plausible. But it's complete and utter speculation so it's useless to town. I said it before, DO NOT SPECULATE ABOUT ROLES (mafia included here). It's kinda useless and misleading unless we get a claim. It's like the whole stupid vigi speculation you saw last game D2 after I was shot. Completely and totally irrelevant and does nothing but sidetrack town from actual scumhunting | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On August 01 2014 14:01 GlowingBear wrote: Assuming we have three mafia, is it still flawed? I assumed we have three mafia because of the slider up from last newbie game Yes. Because mafia could very well have bussed DC comics AS YOU NOTE. I'll explain later in my big post before night ends. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On August 01 2014 14:18 GlowingBear wrote: I'm not saying that what I've brought is 100% right. I'm saying that it has hot a higher probability of happening and that it would be a good push to start day 2 Assumes 3 mafia. Touching upon this before night ends, but I...cordially disagree. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On August 01 2014 15:09 Teemursu wrote: I had my vote on you EOD. Also GB basically hammered the mafia. wat | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On August 01 2014 15:14 Teemursu wrote: Didn't he? Wasn't it 4-4 with meat going to get lynched, and then GB changed his vote to 666? No, it was 4-3 on meat, then I swapped to DC, then DC voted meat. Glowing made a last minute change in voting that didn't affect the outcome. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On July 31 2014 13:15 HaruRH wrote: Vote Count – Day 1 Teemursu (2): Tehpoofter (0): meatpudding (4): Glowingbear, seeyalater, seeyalater (0): lilwade (0): DCLXVI (3): Tehpoofter, lilwade, JennyHell Not voting (0): none Currently, Meatpudding is set to be lynched with 4 votes. Please contact the mods if the vote count is incorrect. Thank you! Day 1 will end in (14:00 GMT (+00:00)). I apologise if the votecount comes late, it is nearly impossible to do votecount on mobile. Then, On July 31 2014 13:57 Lord Tolkien wrote: And nevermind, meat has been talking. Hmm. Alright, for now, #vote DCLXVI then, On July 31 2014 14:10 DCLXVI wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote MeatPudding then, your vote. DC was already set to be lynched before you swapped. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
I'm fairly certain DC was bussed. Given he had literally no defense of himself, either he gave up when the jig was up, so to speak, or was deliberately dying to advance mafia interests. Or perhaps abit of both, idk. But literally posting nothing but a vote change is about as white flag and suspicious as all hell, and leads me to conclude he was bussed. Two possibilities: Either it's to deflect from meatpudding, who was a mafia power role and thus preferential to keep alive if both are up for lynch (but that assumes we lucked out on two mafia bandwagons D1: something I feel isn't very likely, and that mafia has a power role, which isnt confirmed and is thus speculation), or to cover for someone who is now currently on the DC train. I'm scrutinizing GB, but there seems little incentive to swap so late after the silence from DC was seriously deafening, or to be the "decisive vote" (how he was painted that I have no idea). Assuming he was bussed then, either this was a pre-meditated part of mafia strategy (and mafia could've even started the wagon) since as a D1 mafia kill, this was too "easy", or spur of the moment. It significantly impacts who's under the microscope on the vote list, I think. Or perhaps its super WIFOM and the mafia stayed on meat, but given how there was no defense of DC, it makes little/no sense. I'm actually looking at TehPoofter again given the possibility of bussing here. But given a votelist analysis under the assumption of bussing, without ANY prior reads I'd say the following. People who should be a D2 wagon: Meatpudding (unless things change drastically, step it up) People who are suspicious as all hell: GB Me (even tho confirmed town) People who should be reviewed carefully: Banks Jenny lilwade People who are most likely stupid town (like srs, DC put up no defense whatsoever): Teemu Seeya If you're mafia, fuck you. Everything's locked in. :D | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
whelp, im clearly mafia gaiz, pls lynch In all seriousness tho: As meat's new list actually makes some cognizant sense, and GB is still inconsistent (and my vote analysis leaves him and me as most suspicious after the flop considering DC's non-defense [and I know I'm town]), I'm leaving a tentative vote on him right now as I review some filters, later today. For pressure, atm since I really want to see him post more and clear himself if he's town; again I doubt we stumbled across TWO mafia D1. Good news is I can start posting more actively starting tomorrow gaiz! inc town hero :D #vote: meatpudding The case against you GB is largely that you were fairly non-contributive to town's success D1 in finding and lynching mafia, and some of your cases and shit was fucking insane. As I noted, your last minute vote swap was significantly weaker than . Now as I noted, I still think it's unlikely that you're mafia and would draw attention to yourself so flagrantly near the end of the game (I would think mafia would've realized that DC was the lynch candidate at the time, and wouldn't be acting like they were the hammer vote), but I do need to re-read your filter again. You weren't heavy town lean in my eyes, and you definitely still aren't. @seeya: if there's one thing I've learned from forum mafia, while understanding the position, it's by no means solid. I'll be looking at meatpudding's viability as town based on his merits, not on what i see dead people say. He's appearing more townie to me, but I would still push him as a D2 bandwagon unless someone puts together a BETTER case. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
| ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
I need to stop using "as I noted". I'll be onlline intermittently for any questions directed at me, but I cant post heavily until tomorrow. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
| ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On August 02 2014 05:31 Tehpoofter wrote: This is a good tactic if you are mafia to deflect off something before mafia calls you out on it. Don't do that. I have you in my bangs and With my wife dead I'm looking to take the life insurance claim and remarry. I just found it funny that I somehow predicted it. You guys were telling me to lighten up so I'm lightening up. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
Meant GB. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On August 02 2014 05:55 Tehpoofter wrote: I'm going to make a case on everyone in this game. I need to figure out who I can trust. I want to hear mine plox. | ||
|
Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
TSM rekt | ||
| ||
