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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
He's just decided to be flippant and unhelpful because he knows he's in no danger of being lynched today. He gave us his checks, so we can ignore him. I agree that the only really likely outcome for a true claim from Snickers is that he's the sane cop. I anticipate 1 incorrect check, from either a gf or a framer. | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
Lm I'm free in about an hour. Got some time around then? ##unvote ##vote lazermonkey | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
So, We have a few hours left and I think our best bet here is lynching LM. I say this because I think it's fairly unlikely that Chezinu or Snickers is fakeclaiming. Chez made it obvious he was the cop earlier, and a scum player wouldn't fakeclaim with three green checks on living players. If we remove Chezinu, YKZ, Snickers, LM, and Sloosh from the equation, that leaves us with Koshi and Release as "not checked by a cop" unless I'm misunderstanding chezinu. I'd really like to know exactly who he checked besides Artanis. That would really help, chezinu. With 2 cops we can reasonably assume 1 cop-fooling role, be it Godfather or Framer. Since LM returned "Goon" on night 1 or 3 (on night 2 chez checked artanis), and "Green" on night 2, it means either he was framed N2 and is scum, or he was framed N1 or N3 (whenever chez checked him) and is town. It's not possible he's the godfather, since the godfather would return a role that matches his alignment (ie, green and VT). The other possibility is that Snickers is the insane cop, in which case his green checks are red checks, and the reason there are 3 is that his target was framed 1+ times. This is actually not as unlikely as it sounds; scum could have easily framed me for alignment N1 and the remaining 2 scum couild be LM and Sloosh (assuming one of them wasn't framed as well). However, what this means is that no matter what, the scum role has to be Framer, not godfather. The Framer can change someone's appearance in terms of alignment as they see fit, and I assume this means both role and alignment, which means we can't REALLY capital-T Trust any of the checks. However, if we take a look at possibitiles, we see: 1. LM is a VT and he was framed N1 or N3 to look like a Goon. 2. LM is a VT and he was framed both N2 and N3 to look like a Goon, and Snickers is Insane 3. LM is scum and he was framed N2 to look green 4. LM is scum and Snickers is insane If he flips VT, I think 1 is most likely. scum wouldnt' frame the same guy over and over again, especially if he was town. This would make me and Sloosh more likely to be town imo since it means snickers is sane. However, if he flips scum, I think it's more likely thbat Snicjkers is insane. Again, outside of some specific moves (like if someone is an obvious "We need to check this guy" sort of guy) I expect scum would frame themselves rather than townies. A cop getting a green check is not catastrophic. green checks can be shot. A cop getting a red check, however, is very bad. Based on my assumption of "scum frames townies not as often as they frame themselves" we can guess snick sanity based on LM alignment. Lazermo, I'm here and we have 2 hours to keep things rolling. What do you think of this grouping of people? Do not lynch: Chez, YKZ, Snickers Let's look more at: Sloosh, Release Lynch: Koshi | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 06:50 Release wrote: What about the fact that others told him that he was wrong and he still insisted that he was right? And I *was* right. Yes, *this time* my heuristic failed, but FACT: it is right 90% of the time. I stand behidn the 27nb lynch. I am willing to use kenpachi rule and kenpachi rule extended, and yes, SOMETIMES, i lycnh town. I'll own that. Just because 27nb happened to flip town doesn't mean I'm wrong. The people who defended 27nb happened to be correct, but they were not right. In fact, I should take a look at who defended her for reasons that didn't make sense. Maybe scum looking to collect easy towncred, right? When it comes down to it, I get it, you aren't as experienced and knowledgeable as me, which means you don't get Kenpachi Rule or the fact that happening to be incorrect. Day 1, I caught scum 90% of the time. If I buy for $5 a bet that 90% of the time I get 10 dollars, and 10% of the time I lose 10 dollars. During that 10% of the time I'll look silly, but on average I will make money. And when I lose my money, you can laugh all you want but I made the right choice. I insist that I am right because I am right. | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 07:02 Chezinu wrote: Beginning of game, everyone said I was town. Then Art confirmed me town before he died. So, to be clear, you are not the rolecop, and therefore do not have a check on LM? | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 07:07 Release wrote: YKZ explain this to me: If you claim vt at the start of the day, and someone votes for you for some uncontiguous reason, does it still count as an appropriate application of the kenpachi rule? If you make your first post claiming VT, and the person votes you for some other thing in that post, and their entire case is based off of the first post you made in the game (even if it never references your VT claim), it falls under kenpachi rule extended. | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 07:07 Chezinu wrote: Yup! Couldn't resist the troll... but unlike Caller I will tell you before lynch goes through. If that's the case, I no longer see a reason to lynch LM. His lynch is no longer inevitable, so we must evit it. ##unvote ##vote Koshi Let's get Koshi. My case still stands: On June 25 2014 20:15 YouKnowZhou wrote: As has been mentioned, Koshi posts thhis: Then he votes LM, which makes sense When he starts mentioning VE again, he asks for reasons that VE is not mafia then votes VE based on my case, with almost no explanation Even at this point I consider Koshi to be chill. I don't mind this vote in a vacuum. The 180 on VE is surprising, but I've put in work. The problem here is that the explanation is lacking. Well, don't worry, Koshi shows up shortly thereafter with some mad explanation:(link). In his large post about 6 hours later, Koshi is writing about how LM is town and how he wants to lynch LM, rather than about VE. People call him out and he defends himself but never pushes VE futher. The lack of followup isn't a main poitn, actually. Really it's just the "vote VE, big case on LM". I don't like it. Koshi is imo a higher prio target than LM, whose latevote on D2 only really makes sense from a town perspective. ##vote Koshi and honestly, LM has a GREEN CHECK on him and nothing against that, and he made that latevote D2 that still makes NO SENSE unless he was town. Let's not lynch him, really. | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
Sloosh, your vote was on Koshi yesterday. Today, LM has a Green check on him, and now you're voting him over Koshi. Can you please explain why (before the flip)? | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 07:15 slOosh wrote: Ha! Like we were only voting Lazermonkey because of a red check. Priceless. Okay, but I want to be clear here: yesterday, your vote was on Koshi. You did switch back and forth between the two of them a bit, but in the end, your vote was on Koshi. Was it just for consolidation reasons, or did you actually think he was a better lynch than LM? What changed your mind today? Are you ignoring the green check (which is reasonable, but if you are, please own it)? | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 07:28 Snickers wrote: Woops I meant very sure Lazer is scum because of his erratic play as of late. Anyway time for me to post all of my current reads. Chezinu-town. YKZ-Very suspicious Lazer-scum Release-town Koshi-town Sloosh-town Also if I die tonight instead of chezinu, be very suspicious. Given that chezinu has in fact unclaimed, why be suspicious? You're the real cop, why wouldn't scum shoot you, especially with the medic dead? Or are you also fakeclaiming ._. On June 27 2014 07:21 slOosh wrote: I voted Koshi because I wanted to keep VE. I even said to Koshi that I thought he was town. Lazermonkey was always a better lynch. I'm dismissing the green check for now because of the possibility of framer / godfather. Fair enough. Besides you and me everyone else who ever voted Koshi is either dead or LM. And I also agree that we can reasonably dismiss insanity (of course you think this, as the other guy who got checked). However, the casual dismissal of the possibility of insanity means you think that I'm town, or you think I was framed/GF as well. I'm not accusing you of drawing associative tells between unflipped players, but until LM flips you personally should not be able to casually rule out the fact that snickers could be insane. After all, maybe LM and I are scum (you seem to think we're both scum) and you just got framed N3. That would actually explain things JUST as easily as LM being scum and being framed/gf, and it would explain things WAY easier than LM and I being scum and both of us being frame/gf in time with snickers' checks. The fact that you reject the simplest explanation that aligns with your scumreads on me and LM (snickers is insane, you got framed) makes me more suspect of your thought process. LM, I want you to look into Sloosh and see if what he has said has really made sense. D1 he voted VE, then near the end moved to 27nb. D2 he voted me, and parked there all day. D3 he voted me for a while then flopped between Kosh and LM. Today he has been reliably on you, LM. What do you think of him? You said you expected Release/Koshi to be scum over him (link) but also that he hard defended mderg without a clear good reason (link) which in my book would be a premium tier scumtell. Please elaborate, LM. | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
Right now we are 7 alive, with 2 scum. If we mislynch today we go into 3-2 lylo. If you have 3 scumreads and worried you might be wrong, and that 2 of them are town and 1 scum, the order you lynch them in matters a lot. So why are you eager to lynch me over Koshi today, but would reconsider if and only if LM flips town? I don't understand your thought process here. Please respond before the flip. | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 07:55 Lazermonkey wrote: And everyone is gone... Well, if it's just you and me, LM, do you have any questions or directions for me? You've seen my read list and you know what I'm thinking about, and I promise to 100% not ignore your input if you flip town. | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 08:01 Release wrote: At this point, since Koshi has not returned since the Korea Belgium game, and he is probably asleep (earlier than he has been in past days), his lack of input is more harmful as compared to you who is always around the deadline. I'd probably lynch Koshi first (but of course I would have to consider his next day input). Since the end of day 2, LM's play seems to be characteristic of try to get someone lynched (particularly SloOsh whom I thought was unreasonably thrown into his scumlist when Koshi questioned him, and when LM made his bigger post. You have been on my scumlist since Day 1. I thought that was awful play, and I still think it is awful play to ignore everyone and just hide behind "Kenpachi rule is God" So when you were talking about Koshi as a third consideration over an LM/YKZ lynch if one of the two of us flips town, what you really meant was that you wanted to lynch LM first, then decide between me and koshi? Or am I misunderstanding your priorities here? | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 08:08 Release wrote: Lynch whichever of you I thought was scummier. If the lynch revealed that the lynch target flipped town, then decide between Koshi and the other. If the lynch revealed that the lynch target flipped mafia, then lynch the other. it just so happens to be that "scummier" is LM today, and "the other" is by default, you (YKZ) Ok, I see what you're saying. I'm just confused because 2 hours ago you said this: On June 27 2014 05:42 Release wrote: Koshi is the mafia candidate outside you and YKZ that would become a lynch candidate if you or YKZ flip town. His play this game has not been particularly good (and at times absolutely useless). However, I still think that his play has been more meaningful than your's. But this makes sense. In your mind, you are thinking "I expect YKZ and LM to be scum together. A large amount of my scumread on them is an associative tell between unflipped players. If one of them flips town, my scumread on the other becomes weaker, more on par with my scumread on Koshi-- so I'll need to re-evaluate." Is that accurate? | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 08:06 Snickers wrote: So did I post my reads too soon? Owell hopefully we got another medic to protect me. Anyway this game would be alot easier if town played well. And seriously when are you guys going to read the rules. There could be two medics. If there are two medics in a game where scum has 1 kp I will figuratively eat my hat. | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 08:12 Snickers wrote: OK everyone that is in this thread at this moment. Anwser this for me please. What is the likliness that all of scum voted together day one. If Lazer flips town, that is why I think release is scum. Also if release we then lynch release sloosh is probably scum for his ding ding ding comment. Sloosh did seem suspicious to me becasue of his votes. Already answered this question for you: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/458796-normal-mini-mafia-lvi?page=51#1007 On June 24 2014 03:57 YouKnowZhou wrote: Here's my VCA for the end of D1. I've highlighed our 3 flips that we'd have, which is 27nb and gk for town, and mderg for scum. D1 final votecount 27ninjabunnies (7): YouKnowZhou, Artanis[Xp], mderg, Chezinu, Koshi, slOosh, goodkarma YouKnowZhou (1): Release mderg (4): Snickers, VisceraEyes, 27ninjabunnies, Lazermonkey Two big wagons. One on a town, one on a scum. The wagons are 3 votes apart, so with 2 or 3 scum we can expect they have the option to split their votes rather than all vote 27nb to protect mderg. It's worth noting that the gk shot is suggestive that scum wasn't too worried about mderg during N1. If the scumteam was all on 27nb (say there are 3 scum) then they would imo be worried about mderg and be less likely shoot a big mderg defender, gk. This would be because they'd see that mderg has basically half of the town's votes on him and only scum voting could save him. if they had 1 or 2 votes on the mderg wagon, they see it as scum-driven and are not worried about mderg getting lynched d2 so they shoot gk n1. All this, however, is only in probabilities, not absolutes. I do not typically consider VCA to be a major component of my cases, and it's certainly not the kind of thing to convince me VE is scuml; my case against VE is here: (link). However, if this is the kind of thing you like (VCA and nk speculation), you can infer from the gk kill that scum is probably not concerned too much with shooting people killing mderg, which means there probably were not 4 townies voting mderg, which means VE is more likely to be scum. But seriously though, read my case (link) tl;dr it is unlikely that scum were all on the 27nb wagon | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
Don't give up. Keep talking. Keep giving reads. We need to play on after you're dead. If you're town, don't be mad. be vigilant. Tell me something I acn use tomorrow; anything. On June 27 2014 08:21 Release wrote: Not quite. It's not that my scumread on the other becomes weaker. It's the fact that there are 2 mafia left. It is stupid for me not to consider who the other mafia might be, therefore I must decide between the two remaining mafia. I think you might be reading too much into "I would probably lynch Koshi tomorrow." That is contingent upon his contributing nothing at the end of today and not doing anything tomorrow. Like I said: "(but of course I would have to consider his next day input)." Fair enough. Take a moment, if you would, to look at how Koshi and how LM have played today. Has LM tried to get basically anyone who's not him lynched? Yeah, but I can't blame him. But at least Koshi is giving reads. He wants town to go onw hen he dies. And Koshji? Koshi has done literally nothing but complain about possibly being lynched, defending himself, voting LM,a nd as asoon as it's clear his life is no longer in imminent danger, Koshi is GONE. He doesn't care about what happens. Yeah, he's probably REALLY actually watching soccer games and stuff, but look. The guy only defends himself and gets pissy about potentially getting lynched. Who here has been the better townie? The answer is LM. We should lynch Koshi today. | ||
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YouKnowZhou
United States262 Posts
On June 27 2014 08:21 Release wrote: Not quite. It's not that my scumread on the other becomes weaker. It's the fact that there are 2 mafia left. It is stupid for me not to consider who the other mafia might be, therefore I must decide between the two remaining mafia. I think you might be reading too much into "I would probably lynch Koshi tomorrow." That is contingent upon his contributing nothing at the end of today and not doing anything tomorrow. Like I said: "(but of course I would have to consider his next day input)." Ok, I understand. You're saying "I want to lynch one of YKZ/LM, but if we hit LYLO we need to reconsider everything and not fuck up". That makes total sense to me. | ||
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