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On June 03 2014 06:55 sqrtofneg1 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2014 05:46 Amiko wrote:
I mean it's possible but I don't see why it's compelling either way.
- Maybe he's attacking the people because he wants them to appear towny.
- Maybe he's attacking the people because he thinks it will make him seem more towny.
- Maybe he put one mafia in his list, maybe two.
There's no reliable way to figure out his intentions, so I don't really feel that it's useful to pry that deeply into them.
If you really want to focus on players' last words, why aren't you looking at town players instead?
> What do you think of Chrom's pre-death reads?
> What about bunnies' pre-death reads?
Compared to slOosh, at least you know these players were probably giving their honest reads. I personally can't obtain anything from dead townie's reads. I am literally incapable of doing so. They're reads. They're not posts with the answer in them. However, scum's reads have a higher chance of having the answers in them, because scum already knows the answer to this problem. Which is why I focus on them, rather than town reads. I just take them as their final thoughts.
You can definitely take something from the reads scum give but this is about the last reads. A townie will give honest reads but a scum that´s almost dead might do everything.
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On June 03 2014 07:01 sqrtofneg1 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2014 06:58 mderg wrote:On June 03 2014 06:55 sqrtofneg1 wrote:On June 03 2014 05:46 Amiko wrote:
I mean it's possible but I don't see why it's compelling either way.
- Maybe he's attacking the people because he wants them to appear towny.
- Maybe he's attacking the people because he thinks it will make him seem more towny.
- Maybe he put one mafia in his list, maybe two.
There's no reliable way to figure out his intentions, so I don't really feel that it's useful to pry that deeply into them.
If you really want to focus on players' last words, why aren't you looking at town players instead?
> What do you think of Chrom's pre-death reads?
> What about bunnies' pre-death reads?
Compared to slOosh, at least you know these players were probably giving their honest reads. I personally can't obtain anything from dead townie's reads. I am literally incapable of doing so. They're reads. They're not posts with the answer in them. However, scum's reads have a higher chance of having the answers in them, because scum already knows the answer to this problem. Which is why I focus on them, rather than town reads. I just take them as their final thoughts. You can definitely take something from the reads scum give but this is about the last reads. A townie will give honest reads but a scum that´s almost dead might do everything. Town's last reads are honest, yes. But like I said, they're just reads. They're just guesses. Scum knows the answer. Even if his reads are lies, they make up those lies with the knowledge of the truth. imo scum last reads are much more substantial than town ones.
I disagree with you then.
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This honestly feels like scum who´s given up.
##vote: Meapak_Ziphh
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On June 04 2014 06:03 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
I was thinking about letting myself be modkilled so that the town would essentially get a double lynch but then I realized I wanted to play in the next game so I don't want to be banned.
There's not much I have to say, I promised a case but it's evident that even when I flip town people have already said they're not gonna care. I don't really have the effort to defend myself. Palmar is my best bet for scum since that would balance things out with me being town. Sorry for playing so poorly, I got lynched in the other game and let it get to me.
Naturally, you guys are going to see this as a scumclaim now, but after I flip please refer to this post as a polite goodbye and apology for poor play.
I'll be here for a little while so if anyone wants to banter about reads I'm all for it.
If you´re town, you should give some last reads. Even if some people won´t care about your reads, others will.
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I don´t think discussing the setup will really bring us further. It should be clear that blues should claim before lylo because that confirms them since scum can´t counterclaim.
I had fuba as town after day 2 but after that he kinda chose to disappear. This is strange, especially because he was against lynching sloosh. I think that you should put in more work than just voting on the main bandwagon after you vehemently opposed lynching scum.
I get a townie feeling from sqrt, I don´t really agree with everything he says but it definitely feels like he is trying to figure out the game. He´s active and questioning things, so i´d say he´s probably town.
I´m not really sure about Palmar, he´s been playing pretty lazy but not to an extreme. He´s definitely capable of doing that as town but it felt like he was not even trying to look beyond the MZ lynch which was odd.
HaruRH was quite active the last few days and seems to be trying to solve the game. His plan of lynching sloosh´s scumlist is based is strange, though. It has solid reasoning behind it but it hugely based on assumptions about sloosh´s intentions. Coincidentally I don´t think HaruRH was on that list. I´m still leaning town on him but this is definitely in the back of my mind.
Slam is a mystery to me. His posts make sense but I feel like he is not pushing his reads at all. He´s null for me.
Amiko is most likely town. I don´t see any way he can be scum.
Also I think the MZ lynch was very detrimental for us. There was a lack of good discussion and it´s difficult to get good reads based on that lynch.
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On June 04 2014 22:28 Palmar wrote:
The MZ lynch needed to happen though. He wasn't even defending himself.
To me, Amiko is off the table for now unless this is some massive busplay. However he has been right for the right reasons a lot this game sooo yeah.
mderg made that most townie sounding post I've seen back on day 1. so for tomorrow I think he's off the table as far as I'm concerned.
I'm looking into the others.
I agree that the MZ lynch needed to happen but in the end it didn´t bring us any further.
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On June 04 2014 22:37 HaruRH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2014 22:33 mderg wrote:On June 04 2014 22:28 Palmar wrote:
The MZ lynch needed to happen though. He wasn't even defending himself.
To me, Amiko is off the table for now unless this is some massive busplay. However he has been right for the right reasons a lot this game sooo yeah.
mderg made that most townie sounding post I've seen back on day 1. so for tomorrow I think he's off the table as far as I'm concerned.
I'm looking into the others. I agree that the MZ lynch needed to happen but in the end it didn´t bring us any further. IMO the lynch did show us that fuba is either playing 'lazy' or trying to avoid attention. Awfully quiet from him these few days (d2&3)
Ok, we got something out of it. But it´s not much.
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That could make things a bit more difficult.
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I´m VT.
Since there are no counterclaims there´s no reason to doubt your claims. With 3 confirmed town and me also being town it only leaves Palmar and fuba.
##vote: Palmar
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On June 05 2014 19:04 HaruRH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2014 18:34 Palmar wrote:On June 05 2014 10:13 fuba wrote:
##Vote: Palmar
I can agree with the first half of the lynch list XD You too. Case please. I doubt we need a case now to choose who is mafia. Given that amiko and sqrt are not lying (no counterclaims by anyone, thus they both shouldn't be lying) and given that amiko proves I am VT, this creates a bubble of town around us 3 and anyone else have the remote chance of being mafia. There is no way that either of us 4 (other than sqrt and amiko) will die this night since unless they kill off both of them, tomorrow will be their funeral. mderg have the chance of being mafia, but we can discuss this tomorrow when we choose between fuba and mderg. So far, even though I recognise that fuba is a better lynch target, we still need to lynch you as more people suspect you as mafia over others.
You think fuba would be the best lynch target? If so, you should probably try to push that lynch. It´s not like you have to be in favor of lynching Palmar just because the majority wants to lynch him.
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Some thoughts on Palmar:
I didn´t really like Palmar´s play at the start, he voted bunnies for questionable reasons, it seemed like he was trolling but he said that he wasn´t. The reasons he later gave for that were kinda meh.
He was strongly in favor of lynching jwz and MZ and was wrong on every lynch so far. While that in itself is not a big tell, I got the feeling that he didn´t look beyond these two scumreads and just wanted to secure these misslynches.
What speaks in his favor is this:
On May 30 2014 16:23 Palmar wrote:
I think I could throw my weight behind a sloosh vote.
I have a feeling the mafia team is sloosh, MZ, Gobbley
He didn´t really push sloosh and gobble, though. Especially going against the sloosh lynch was strange. Amiko´s case on sloosh looked better than Palmar´s case on MZ but Palmar stayed on MZ because his case was "more slam dunk".
The MZ lynch itself isn´t really alignment indicative because about everyone wanted to lynch him and he certainly did look like mafia.
This is actually not as much as I thought it would be. I could see scum motivation behind almost everything but calling out sloosh and gobble so early in the game would be really ballsy.
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On June 05 2014 19:21 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2014 19:16 mderg wrote:On June 05 2014 19:04 HaruRH wrote:On June 05 2014 18:34 Palmar wrote:On June 05 2014 10:13 fuba wrote:
##Vote: Palmar
I can agree with the first half of the lynch list XD You too. Case please. I doubt we need a case now to choose who is mafia. Given that amiko and sqrt are not lying (no counterclaims by anyone, thus they both shouldn't be lying) and given that amiko proves I am VT, this creates a bubble of town around us 3 and anyone else have the remote chance of being mafia. There is no way that either of us 4 (other than sqrt and amiko) will die this night since unless they kill off both of them, tomorrow will be their funeral. mderg have the chance of being mafia, but we can discuss this tomorrow when we choose between fuba and mderg. So far, even though I recognise that fuba is a better lynch target, we still need to lynch you as more people suspect you as mafia over others. You think fuba would be the best lynch target? If so, you should probably try to push that lynch. It´s not like you have to be in favor of lynching Palmar just because the majority wants to lynch him. From your POV, no matter your actual alignment, you are town. Which way are you leaning?
I need to reread fuba´s filter but right now I think you are more likely to be scum.
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On June 05 2014 19:33 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2014 19:22 mderg wrote:He was strongly in favor of lynching jwz and MZ and was wrong on every lynch so far. While that in itself is not a big tell, I got the feeling that he didn´t look beyond these two scumreads and just wanted to secure these misslynches. What speaks in his favor is this: On May 30 2014 16:23 Palmar wrote:
I think I could throw my weight behind a sloosh vote.
I have a feeling the mafia team is sloosh, MZ, Gobbley He didn´t really push sloosh and gobble, though. Especially going against the sloosh lynch was strange. Amiko´s case on sloosh looked better than Palmar´s case on MZ but Palmar stayed on MZ because his case was "more slam dunk". Yes. To understand this you have to understand few things 1) When meapak wrote the thing about me trying to back out of a read when I was explaining it, I became 100% sure he was mafia. I do not remember any other instance of MZ just saying blatantly wrong things due to lack of actually reading. Clearly I was wrong, but I was quite convinced. 2) Sloosh got lynched anyway. Why on earth did I not try to at least milk some credit for it by switching back or someting, If you think I'm mafia I already brought up that sloosh was scummy and I might throw my weight behind the case. It makes no sense for me to let him be lynched and leave myself in a worse position before. 3) I was honestly skeptical of how easily the case on Sloosh was building traction. It was a strong case, I initially agreed with it, as is apparent by my posting, hell I always agreed with it. I just felt something was off and I also believed strongly MZ was mafia. Show nested quote +On June 05 2014 19:22 mderg wrote:
The MZ lynch itself isn´t really alignment indicative because about everyone wanted to lynch him and he certainly did look like mafia.
This is actually not as much as I thought it would be. I could see scum motivation behind almost everything but calling out sloosh and gobble so early in the game would be really ballsy. It's just pointless. It's almost sort of insulting that you guys think I'm mafia because in order to believe that I'm mafia you also have to believe I'm incapable of forming a winning strategy, there is literally no path to victory for me even if gobble hadn't gotten killed. But then again, maybe the reason people think I'm mafia despite it being logically impossible for me to be is because reading is hard.
1) I agree that MZ looked scummy but I still think Amiko´s case on sloosh was stronger than your case on MZ. This may be because you have played much more games with MZ but for me the sloosh case was stronger.
2) That reasoning kinda applies to all 3 possible lynch candidates. I could have changed my vote from sloosh to MZ on day 2 and fuba pressured gobble pretty hard at some point. So that doesn´t work stronger in your favor than for anyone else.
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I feel like Palmar´s defense is completely based on 1 point, that he wouldn´t play like this as mafia. His actions would make sense as town but they would also make sense as scum.
His vote on bunnies doesn´t make him town. Slightly pushing a townie for weak reasons doesn´t instantly make one suspicious. It seems like a low risk low reward move to make as scum.
Semi-busing sloosh and gobble was without any follow up, so that didn´t actually put them under huge pressure, so it wasn´t very dangerous and could be used to distance himself from these two resulting in him being less suspicious when they flip or the other way around. It would be pretty ballsy but I think Palmar is capable of that.
Staying on MZ on day 2 also makes sense from a scum perspective because one more vote would have changed things. Especially with the third mafia not voting this could have ended in a mislynch and put a scumteam of sloosh, gobble, palmar in a good position.
So it all kinda comes down to this:
On June 06 2014 00:17 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 00:16 Amiko wrote:
You ignore the point of the votes.
You don't have to have your votes split d2 because there are still plenty of wagons you can unite behind.
You can try to attack the people who swapped for a mislynch (Haru, sqrt, fuba)
And, you can bus slOosh the next day if you need to.
It doesn't matter if all three of you vote M_Z. Who cares. I'm telling you. I would not do what I did as mafia. I think it's a terrible strategy.
The thing about this is that it´s simply a matter of believing him or not believing him. And I don´t believe him.
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On June 06 2014 06:44 Palmar wrote:
Oh look it's mderg not reading the thread
Where do you take that shit from?
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On June 06 2014 07:02 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 06:48 mderg wrote:On June 06 2014 06:44 Palmar wrote:
Oh look it's mderg not reading the thread Where do you take that shit from? From your post about me that blatantly displays you have at best skimmed the discussion between Amiko and I today and clearly shows you have no idea what the case against me is.
let´s just say I disagree.
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On June 06 2014 07:08 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 07:04 mderg wrote:On June 06 2014 07:02 Palmar wrote:On June 06 2014 06:48 mderg wrote:On June 06 2014 06:44 Palmar wrote:
Oh look it's mderg not reading the thread Where do you take that shit from? From your post about me that blatantly displays you have at best skimmed the discussion between Amiko and I today and clearly shows you have no idea what the case against me is. let´s just say I disagree. I wasn't giving you my opinion. You not following the game is a fact, it's right there in the post above.
let´s just say I disagree.
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On June 06 2014 07:11 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
I feel like Palmar´s defense is completely based on 1 point, that he wouldn´t play like this as mafia. His actions would make sense as town but they would also make sense as scum. No it isn't, you're not reading the thread. Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
His vote on bunnies doesn´t make him town. Slightly pushing a townie for weak reasons doesn´t instantly make one suspicious. It seems like a low risk low reward move to make as scum. Or alternatively, it's a simple "let's poke it and see what happens" move for town. You're clearly working in a mindset where you first have decided I'm mafia and then you apply reasons for my actions based on your foregone conclusion. Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
Semi-busing sloosh and gobble was without any follow up, so that didn´t actually put them under huge pressure, so it wasn´t very dangerous and could be used to distance himself from these two resulting in him being less suspicious when they flip or the other way around. It would be pretty ballsy but I think Palmar is capable of that. I am easily capable of busing people as mafia, I just don't leave myself without options. Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
Staying on MZ on day 2 also makes sense from a scum perspective because one more vote would have changed things. Especially with the third mafia not voting this could have ended in a mislynch and put a scumteam of sloosh, gobble, palmar in a good position. Again, you're thinking "Palmar is mafia and here's why" Instead if "This is what Palmar did and it makes him X". There is a perfectly good town explanation for me staying on MZ, I explained it at the time. I've been consistent throughout with my read on him. I quite openly explained why I was doing what I was doing. Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:So it all kinda comes down to this: On June 06 2014 00:17 Palmar wrote:On June 06 2014 00:16 Amiko wrote:
You ignore the point of the votes.
You don't have to have your votes split d2 because there are still plenty of wagons you can unite behind.
You can try to attack the people who swapped for a mislynch (Haru, sqrt, fuba)
And, you can bus slOosh the next day if you need to.
It doesn't matter if all three of you vote M_Z. Who cares. I'm telling you. I would not do what I did as mafia. I think it's a terrible strategy. The thing about this is that it´s simply a matter of believing him or not believing him. And I don´t believe him. No it doesn't come down to that, that's the tiniest bit of the puzzle.
I even said that your play also makes sense as town. I didn´t feel the need to explain the possible town mindset for every point because you already did that shit.
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On June 06 2014 07:23 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 07:14 mderg wrote:On June 06 2014 07:11 Palmar wrote:On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
I feel like Palmar´s defense is completely based on 1 point, that he wouldn´t play like this as mafia. His actions would make sense as town but they would also make sense as scum. No it isn't, you're not reading the thread. On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
His vote on bunnies doesn´t make him town. Slightly pushing a townie for weak reasons doesn´t instantly make one suspicious. It seems like a low risk low reward move to make as scum. Or alternatively, it's a simple "let's poke it and see what happens" move for town. You're clearly working in a mindset where you first have decided I'm mafia and then you apply reasons for my actions based on your foregone conclusion. On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
Semi-busing sloosh and gobble was without any follow up, so that didn´t actually put them under huge pressure, so it wasn´t very dangerous and could be used to distance himself from these two resulting in him being less suspicious when they flip or the other way around. It would be pretty ballsy but I think Palmar is capable of that. I am easily capable of busing people as mafia, I just don't leave myself without options. On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
Staying on MZ on day 2 also makes sense from a scum perspective because one more vote would have changed things. Especially with the third mafia not voting this could have ended in a mislynch and put a scumteam of sloosh, gobble, palmar in a good position. Again, you're thinking "Palmar is mafia and here's why" Instead if "This is what Palmar did and it makes him X". There is a perfectly good town explanation for me staying on MZ, I explained it at the time. I've been consistent throughout with my read on him. I quite openly explained why I was doing what I was doing. On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:So it all kinda comes down to this: On June 06 2014 00:17 Palmar wrote:On June 06 2014 00:16 Amiko wrote:
You ignore the point of the votes.
You don't have to have your votes split d2 because there are still plenty of wagons you can unite behind.
You can try to attack the people who swapped for a mislynch (Haru, sqrt, fuba)
And, you can bus slOosh the next day if you need to.
It doesn't matter if all three of you vote M_Z. Who cares. I'm telling you. I would not do what I did as mafia. I think it's a terrible strategy. The thing about this is that it´s simply a matter of believing him or not believing him. And I don´t believe him. No it doesn't come down to that, that's the tiniest bit of the puzzle. I even said that your play also makes sense as town. I didn´t feel the need to explain the possible town mindset for every point because you already did that shit. If my play makes sense as town, AND the only point against me is that you don't believe I wouldn't play like this as mafia, why are you voting me?
I think your play would make sense as both alignments. It´s explainable in either way but I think that play is more likely to come from mafia.
You made that huge post explaining why you can´t be scum but I don´t think any of the points you brought up make it impossible for you to be scum.
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On June 06 2014 07:44 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 07:42 mderg wrote:On June 06 2014 07:23 Palmar wrote:On June 06 2014 07:14 mderg wrote:On June 06 2014 07:11 Palmar wrote:On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
I feel like Palmar´s defense is completely based on 1 point, that he wouldn´t play like this as mafia. His actions would make sense as town but they would also make sense as scum. No it isn't, you're not reading the thread. On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
His vote on bunnies doesn´t make him town. Slightly pushing a townie for weak reasons doesn´t instantly make one suspicious. It seems like a low risk low reward move to make as scum. Or alternatively, it's a simple "let's poke it and see what happens" move for town. You're clearly working in a mindset where you first have decided I'm mafia and then you apply reasons for my actions based on your foregone conclusion. On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
Semi-busing sloosh and gobble was without any follow up, so that didn´t actually put them under huge pressure, so it wasn´t very dangerous and could be used to distance himself from these two resulting in him being less suspicious when they flip or the other way around. It would be pretty ballsy but I think Palmar is capable of that. I am easily capable of busing people as mafia, I just don't leave myself without options. On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:
Staying on MZ on day 2 also makes sense from a scum perspective because one more vote would have changed things. Especially with the third mafia not voting this could have ended in a mislynch and put a scumteam of sloosh, gobble, palmar in a good position. Again, you're thinking "Palmar is mafia and here's why" Instead if "This is what Palmar did and it makes him X". There is a perfectly good town explanation for me staying on MZ, I explained it at the time. I've been consistent throughout with my read on him. I quite openly explained why I was doing what I was doing. On June 06 2014 06:17 mderg wrote:So it all kinda comes down to this: On June 06 2014 00:17 Palmar wrote:On June 06 2014 00:16 Amiko wrote:
You ignore the point of the votes.
You don't have to have your votes split d2 because there are still plenty of wagons you can unite behind.
You can try to attack the people who swapped for a mislynch (Haru, sqrt, fuba)
And, you can bus slOosh the next day if you need to.
It doesn't matter if all three of you vote M_Z. Who cares. I'm telling you. I would not do what I did as mafia. I think it's a terrible strategy. The thing about this is that it´s simply a matter of believing him or not believing him. And I don´t believe him. No it doesn't come down to that, that's the tiniest bit of the puzzle. I even said that your play also makes sense as town. I didn´t feel the need to explain the possible town mindset for every point because you already did that shit. If my play makes sense as town, AND the only point against me is that you don't believe I wouldn't play like this as mafia, why are you voting me? I think your play would make sense as both alignments. It´s explainable in either way but I think that play is more likely to come from mafia. You made that huge post explaining why you can´t be scum but I don´t think any of the points you brought up make it impossible for you to be scum. Okay, but does anything make it impossible for me to be town? Why do you think I'm more likely to be mafia. You're being extremely vague.
No.
The semi bus on sloosh and gobble without any follow up and your day 2 vote on MZ. Both would have strong scum reasons behind them.
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EPT
