EPTDetention Mafia - Page 14
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
| ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
| ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@Fuba: On mderg with gobble & M_Z I actually liked this point. I can’t put too much stock in it (if mderg is scum, Palmar is town and he was also pushing for M_Z around the same time) but it was something on mderg I hadn’t looked at. On mderg vote timing I think your point isn’t bad, but I do think scum could believe that sqrt would change his vote. At least, when talk started up about vote changing I wasn’t particularly surprised to see sqrt move his vote given how he had reacted to the votes the prior day. Can you explain what you mean by this a little more? On June 07 2014 02:57 fuba wrote: Huh, palmar's kinda in the same boat as mderg in this situation, except he doesn't switch. My instinct tells me this is evidence of palmar being more likely town than mderg. Dunno though, would have to give that a bit more thought than I have time for atm. | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
| ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
But why are you alone, shouldn't there be other people there? | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Palmar questions the possibility that if Slam was getting townread for the roleblock, it may make mderg more likely to fake the claim. Alakaslam claimed here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=35#685) I don’t see any real discussion of Slam or the roleblock in a positive way. Actually, I think the little discussion we had of Slam was a null read from sqrt (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=36#710). Nobody really seemed to consider the roleblock. So, I still tend to think mafia was more likely to roleblock mderg than not use the block. @Palmar: I still think the best reasons to suspect fuba being scum is that he makes a case on gobble, basically drops it, then makes a case on sqrt, and again basically drops it. It's hard to say that's scummier than you, though, when I don't feel like you really explored other options. I still feel pretty good about lynching both you and fuba, and I still I think the best way to effect that is lynching you first. Still reading though :3 | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
| ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
 | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
That's pretty much what I think as well. I don't mind heading to obs a little ahead of you guys. | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
| ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
| ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 30 2014 11:58 fuba wrote: I've gotta assume your question about sqrt is when you said that I needed to respond to his case. That is something that I've already done multiple times. I contributed my lynch target, I contributed my reasoning on my lynch target, and I hoped that he would flip scum so that I wouldn't have to deal with nonsense like this after D1. That is pretty much all I ever do D1, give or take random small comments if I have the time. If we disagree about what "contributing" means, we're going to keep doing so. I see no reason to form a read on every single person in the game on D1 when there is very little to go on, a lot of those reads will change because of the flip, and the majority of those reads are going to be really null for me, because I obsess and see possible explanations for situations that most people don't (An example is what I said about jabber's scumteam from last game knowing if he was lying. Amiko said only himself and scum should think about that, and yet I did.) I ignored no questions, as you haven't asked me a question. you made a demand that I do something that I've already done repeatedly. You've actually ignored my questions. Repeatedly. I've also not twisted your words. I've looked at your words in context, and explained what they meant even if you didn't explicitly say it, as I saw them at the time. That is my means of scumhunting, a thing that only townies do. I'd like an answer to my questions now. Hey Fuba- I have other things to bring up, but here's one thing I considered - If you agree with me (that the line of thought I suggested is one that should only come from me or scum) isn't it fairly suspicious that you had that line of thought? | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 08 2014 04:21 HaruRH wrote: See. for the whole night, no responses. Time to post fanfics Could you post questions/concerns you have for mderg or fuba instead? I feel like if you recognize that there isn't much action, the best way is to bring up points. (I don't mind if you write some fanfics too) | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I raised some suspicion of Haru on D1 and again later http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=25#499 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=34#666 We now know that Haru is confirmed town. Between mderg and Fuba, do you see either of these players indicating they may want to raise Haru as a mislynch later on in the game? Fuba seems to townread Haru somewhat and doesn't comment on my points on Haru much other than that- + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2014 02:32 fuba wrote: Oh, and I keep bouncing around regarding sqrt. I don't see scum|sqrt preparing to scumread Amiko after the SlOosh lynch, because he would KNOW Amiko is town and KNOW SlOosh is scum. It would be a really weird chain of reasoning to then say that he thought Amiko was scum for pushing the mislynch so hard. Makes me think both Haru and sqrt are town, because I dunno, it's weird that they both agreed on that and came to the conclusion independently when they can't possibly both be scum. At the same time, saying that I seem townie to him (sqrt) for my thought process in a post entirely devoted to calling him scum makes me doubt my assessment of the sloosh situation. Then there's the fact that SlOosh spent the entire game looking for contradictions in peoples' play, and called out MZ, myself, and alakaslam for things he thought were contradictory, but ignored the contradictory statements in sqrt's filter, instead calling him townie for them. However, I'm placing more weight on the former than the latter because I don't want to give slOosh's last post too much sway. K, srsly now. Responding to haru XD On June 05 2014 02:57 fuba wrote: Response to the points brought up by Haru: I don't see any reason to take much of what SlOosh said in that last post seriously anymore. He's confirmed scum, so whatever he said at that point was meant to drag us into wifom. So we shouldn't let it, and ignore most of it, as I'm trying to do with his comments about sqrt. Analysis >>> scum wifom. As for me sheeping the MZ lynch, I should clarify I guess. MZ had been a prime lynch target for the better part of 2 days at that point. There was no way anyone I could suggest was being lynched over MZ even if I thought there was a better lynch. So I saw no point in analyzing anything that might prove pointless, rather than working on my two final projects that are due next week. Technically I wasn't even being lazy, I was just prioritizing my time. I just checked out the votes from the SlOosh lynch again, and I feel like there's a really strong chance that all scum were on the MZ wagon D2, or the last one could have switched over and gotten a mislynch. Amiko was right in that since I was wrong, I was giving scum the chance to switch over to MZ easily. The fact that they didn't makes me feel that one of Palmar/sqrt/Haru is scum. I've already explained why I don't think sqrt and Haru are scum, so that leaves me with Palmar for tomorrow's lynch. mderg does show a little more attention to my points- + Show Spoiler + On May 29 2014 05:29 mderg wrote: Regarding HaruRH: I agree with Amiko that Haru´s play has been strange. The part about the odds is not something I would take seriously. To me it seemed like some kind of joke post. The second point Amiko raises about Haru is definitely strange play. It kinda seemed like throwing a fake lifeline to jabber in order to have some point against him regardless of how jabber continues to play. The third point is something that could go either way. It´s difficult to get a clear read out of setup discussion. So it´s definitely worth it to keep a closer eye on HaruRH. On June 01 2014 18:52 mderg wrote: In general I think scum is either MZ or likely to be found on the MZ wagon. I´m rather confident that it´s one between MZ, Palmar, sqrt, HaruRH. I don´t think it´s fuba, he started that and put himself in the spotlight in a way you probably wouldn´t want to as scum. The voteswitch at the end was strange because I don´t think it was going too easily. I mean the case was solid and based on sloosh´s whole game, and there were still like 3 people voting MZ. On June 04 2014 22:18 mderg wrote: HaruRH was quite active the last few days and seems to be trying to solve the game. His plan of lynching sloosh´s scumlist is based is strange, though. It has solid reasoning behind it but it hugely based on assumptions about sloosh´s intentions. Coincidentally I don´t think HaruRH was on that list. I´m still leaning town on him but this is definitely in the back of my mind. Looking at these two, it's tough to make a good call. On the one hand, mderg picks up on my points a little more, which initially would suggest to me that he might be looking at Haru as a potential mislynch. However, fuba basically ignores the points, so it's hard to say that's really towny. I think looking at the rest of the game, I like mderg's posts on Haru. He does seem to keep his eye on Haru through the game, and eventually seems to lean town on Haru despite the fact that I haven't really relented at that time. In other words, I feel that after M_Z dies, Haru should have been seen as a good mislynch candiate, but that's about when mderg is giving him a townread. So, although he gave the case more attention, it doesn't strike me as the way scum would approach Haru. Thoughts anyone? | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 07 2014 08:51 Palmar wrote: I was talking about fuba backtracking on me being mafia. Also since I didn't answer this yesterday, I didn't make much of this point because I thought mderg was also backtracking somewhat on Palmar. + Show Spoiler + On June 07 2014 03:50 mderg wrote: This makes me unsure about Palmar being scum. The advice seems like genuine advice from a townie. I definitely have to think about that. Like a lot of things this game (inactivity/refusal to discuss the game, weird vote movements, etc.) it's something I would usually find suspicious but cannot attribute to scum because I know town players have done this as well. | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
| ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 01 2014 09:10 Amiko wrote: Okay here's another good point @sqrt: Yesterday fuba was content to go with a bandwagon on jabber. He kept his vote on jabber. Today he is afraid of a bandwagon that is going too easily. Yesterday's wagon went more easily. Today he is concerned. WAT On June 01 2014 09:11 fuba wrote: This isn't a "too easy" argument from me. It's the argument that between two players that are relatively identical according to the reads of most players in the thread, this is the wagon that at least two scum are on. This lynch feels more uncertain than yesterday's, and more dangerous. Hm, I guess it almost is a "too easy" argument, but I think the point still stands. And yes, I read people as town based on single posts all the time. If the rest of their filter is pretty "meh" to me, Seeing what I feel is a clear town mindset pretty much makes them town unless I have to completely reevaluate my reads and start from the beginning. I think there's a secondary point worth looking at regarding Fuba's play d2. Look at the beginning of his case on sqrt: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote: I'm glad you mentioned sqrt, because he's someone who's stuck out to me. His reason for unvoting jabber and voting palmar was that lynches like that end up being wrong. It turns out that he was right, but isn't that a really, really strange reason to unvote someone when you have legitimate reasons to believe he's scum in front of you? Then he swaps back to jabber in order to get more information, even though he thinks palmar is scummier. He then unvotes jabber because of his defense. Not the content of his defense, because that was scummy. He basically unvoted because jabber gave A reason. It wasn't a "too scummy to be scum" argument, it was just - he gave a reason, I think he's town. Then while interacting with Chrom, he says that he doesn't think jabber is town (except he actually did explicitly say "I think he's town now."), but he thinks there's a possibility that jabber is town. This is a really strange thing to say as town because unless someone is somehow modconfirmed scum, there is always the possibility that they're town. That's a given, it's understood by everyone. But he reiterates the fact that he thinks jabber is scummy, but might be town, but might also be scum, about 3-4 times. (cut) Fuba is pointing to sqrt's willingness to vote and unvote on jabber D1 as scummy. He points out that this is suspicious partly because sqrt is still willing to say that jabber may be mafia. But, consider fuba's play d2, specifically when he is moving from sqrt to M_Z: + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2014 08:06 fuba wrote: ##Unvote Something that's bugging me about this lynch is that if slOosh and MZ are generally considered to be scummy in similar ways, then scum could vote for either of them for generally the same reasons. So if they're not both scum, then it's far more likely that today will be a mislynch. SlOosh's last post made me feel like he's town, because he gave his reads instead of just ditching the thread when he's pretty definitely getting lynched. It could be a scum ploy, but his comments about Amiko make me really uneasy about lynching him. He appears to be looking at his own lynch from a townie's eyes. He sees that there are two similar wagons and the driving force behind one being stronger than the other is Amiko. He warns us against trusting anything Amiko says about non-MZ lynches D3 because if SlOosh is town then he knows Amiko's actions have brought scum within one mislynch of winning. That last post from SlOosh is possibly one of the towniest things in the thread, imo, because I find that mentality to be something that's pretty difficult to fake. He doesn't just say "don't trust Amiko", as I believe scum would do, but he took it a step farther and said not to trust him if he tries to push anything other than MZ D3. That is what I find so townie about this post. If I have to vote for one or the other, at the moment, I'd ##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh It bugs me that Palmar hasn't returned to the thread before this lynch, since he's on the MZ wagon but said he's be up for a SlOosh lynch. Dunno if I find him scummy for it, but given my current view of this as a scum-controlled lynch, his absence is allowing what I believe is going to be a mislynch to happen over his top scumread. Here, I think fuba is doing something along the lines of what he has accused sqrt of doing - fuba is basically using the idea that the majority vote would lead to a mislynch. There are some differences, to be fair. Fuba says he is townreading slOosh (and Haru and sqrt seem to feel the same way), so it's different from D1 sqrt who still suspected jabber. I think fuba's reasons are still a little different, too - he is saying that the two are scummy for the same reasons. From my point of view, the scummiest things on both players were the same, except applied more to slOosh. If you went with Palmar's argument (M_Z is scum because he called Palmar town after Palmar called M_Z scum), then the scummiest things on the players were different. I still would like you to explain this a little more fuba. | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I'd like your thoughts on this, even though it is speculative - if you are town, why did scum kill Alakaslam instead of you? | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon. I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town. If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more. ...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game. As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. | ||
|
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I didn't look at the meta stuff, I have to step out for a bit but will try to give it a look before tonight. Kind of busy day today :3 | ||
| ||
