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TL 'Order' LXVI Mafia
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
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On June 11 2014 05:56 Chairman Ray wrote: I'm gonna vote the first person to post on page 25! ##Vote: roundabout | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
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On June 11 2014 06:03 roundabound wrote: I'm impatient Banksy. Plus, I don't know how to bait shit. You know how I play...I just spout whatever the hell comes to my head at the moment. Plus, I think that baiting is kinda silly in general. It's too tough to do properly, and unless people read the post the same way you do, you end up with a shitton of people just thinking that you're scum defending a scum buddy instead of reading you for making a good play. The self-aware weak player. If you are so knowledgeable that you spout what just comes to your head, why don't you just not do it this game instead of analyzing your own weaknesses? A town player will usually try to not exhibit weaknesses that they are completely aware of, and if they do make a mistake, they will try to justify it post-mistake. This feels like someone trying to create a buffer for their future posts so others will read less into scummy play. On June 11 2014 06:08 roundabound wrote: Banks, I don't like that you haven't cleared me yet. I'm the easiest read of all fucking time. I hear this a lot of mafia players when I play live mafia. One of the main benchmarks of skill in mafia is other players not being able to trust if you are town or mafia. It becomes really obvious whether or not a newer player is town or scum, but not the better players. This is another self-aware weak player card that I feel would rarely be played by a town player. On June 11 2014 06:10 roundabound wrote: The only person pushing me is Banks. I've only seen him lurk as mafia on TL and I've seen him be active as town. If posting volume drops or if logic fails or if he doesn't clear me at some point, he might be mafia, otherwise, he's town. Again, he's putting the onus on others to clear him as town. He also prematurely dropped the read on banks that banks is active as town and not so much as mafia. This is something you keep in your mind and say AFTER bank shows that he's active or lurking. Saying this prematurely is an indication that round never had the intention to read into banks. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 08:53 Tehpoofter wrote: His recent posts backing up your wolf lean on him? How do you feel about Marv/Sandroba/JaT not liking your post at all? You think thats alignment indicative for any of them? Also You're doing a poor job of try harding if you make one post a day. Please don't go Cephiro mode on me. If Koshi is heading out for the night, I'm just gonna chime in now. Koshi's big analysis post reads pretty scummy to me. His mafia reads seem pretty sincere and thought out, but his town reads are very short. Whether or not he believes them himself is not evident, but it doesn't convey much to the reader. My initial thinking is that his townreads serve to 'bulk' up his post. I've seen a lot of mafia in previous games iterate through people and give a quick impression of them without a well thought out read on them. This gives the impression that they are active and their posts are longer without actually having to do a lot of investigation. What strikes me odd was his next post: On June 11 2014 08:16 Koshi wrote: No sorry my towns are town. Koshi posted this in response to the people that were dismissive of his reads. This is a very important distinction because people react differently when they are opposed by analysis and when they are opposed by a one liner. In this case, most people just posted a quick one liner dismissing him. From Koshi's perspective, if he just gave out a few quick impressions without a lot of thought, he wouldn't have any sort of attachment or loyalty to his post. His response to the critics would be something like "Those were just my gut feelings at the moment, they may change by the end of the day". Instead, he dismissed the critics with a one liner post containing no new information by posting "No sorry my towns are town". It may be hard to read into on forum mafia, but to me he sounds a bit frustrated and doesn't feel his critics doesn't deserve any more than a one liner. If this is the case, then Koshi has some genuine belief of his townreads, and regardless of the quality of his reads or how he conveyed them, this seems more town to me. tl;dr I disagree with Koshi's townreads, even though I am among them; I disagree with Sandroba that Koshi is mafia. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 09:26 Tehpoofter wrote: Which of Koshi's reads do you disagree with and why? When I stated in the tl;dr that I disagreed with his townreads, I meant that when I first read his analysis, it gave me the impression that they were filler reads and not genuine reads. After his next post, I started to rethink whether or not his reads were meant to be filler, but at the same time I still can't get much from his townreads. To be more specific, statements such as "Not an awkward entrance." and "Town for being around joyfully" are very general and conceptual. The best reads on people are less binary than that and the way in which someone is being not awkward or being joyful is far more important than the general concept. Koshi is not the only one who's been making a lot of general statements, but it stuck out to me more because he initially claimed to be tryharding, and his read on Chrom was a lot more in depth. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 09:46 Bill Murray wrote: ray, would you consider yourself an analytical player? I haven't really considered how I play. I just play how I feel like at the moment and that has meant a lot of different things. On June 11 2014 09:47 Tehpoofter wrote: To Clarify: You disagree with the reasons he got to people's alignment not necessarily the alignment he got to? That is correct | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 09:52 marvellosity wrote: You realise getting the correct alignments for the wrong reasons is like quintissential mafia play, yes? Yes I understand that, but I don't believe that is the case here. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 10:32 Bill Murray wrote: exo + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2014 10:28 ExO_ wrote: Looks like a lot of baseless finger pointing, counter-finger pointing, and baseless claims to me. People are "reading" far too much into non-informative posts if you ask me. This early into the game I think a lot of people are probably very actively over-analyzing every little detail and then causing small squabbles between each other for the dumbest of reasons. So what do I think of his reads? Not much. The only person I've found really interesting so far is chairmanray, who has made some huge posts. I think he's either a townie who is (over)confident in his own ability to read into things, or a mafia having fun while looking innocent. I would lean towards the latter. It's hard to say he hasn't been serious with his vote. he was the 4th on a wagon with a non serious vote and has kept it on there. oh, hey, what a convenience i have admittedly flip flopped on him in the first couple pages so we'll see where this goes. i like this post, though, as i've liked your earlier postings My vote on round was serious. I didn't actually vote when I joked about voting the first poster on page 25. You will see in the voting thread that the timestamp does not match. I voted round after I looked into him and felt that he was a strong mafia read. I would also disagree that my vote was a mere bandwagon. At the time, the day was just starting and there were barely any votes. I casted my vote without consideration to how many people had already voted on round, because between the start of the day and the end, my views will change, and so will everyone else's. For the same reason, a mafia will have no motivation to bandwagon at the very start. I feel that the whole mafia bandwagon strategy would be employed after most people in the game have already voted. Being one of the first to vote turns attention to me, not away from me. Voting on round was simply to state my position. My first real post in this game was an analysis on why I felt that round was mafia. I put some thought into it and my reasoning was unique at the time. I think it's pretty clear that I didn't simply vote him because it was the popular opinion. The reason why I kept my vote on round is that I have not found another person who I feel has a greater chance of being mafia. I looked into Koshi after he made his first post, and I have posted what I thought about him, and I am continuing to investigate more people. If you still feel that my vote was simply a bandwagon, please give me some feedback on my original analysis of him. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 11:29 batsnacks wrote: Okay I'm caught up here's my notes so far: Sinani - Scum. He treads too lightly and unsuccessfully tries to dodge the spotlight. He tries to direct the spotlight away from himself. Do you have specific posts? I feel you are speaking too metaphorically and I don't actually see what you mean in his filter. Chairman Ray - Too impressive a performance to be town. Leaning heavily toward mafia. I'm not sure how to respond to this. What does "too impressive" mean? tehpoofer - Scum. My notes say "gave a lame apology." Voted roundabout for bad reasons, then unvoted roundabout for equally bad reasons. Voted for Koshi and switched soon after without pressuring Koshi at all. Soft defended sinani early on, then voted him for bad reasons, then unvoted him for bad reasons. Noticing a pattern. Tries to look like he's "helping" by pointing out when the thread started for kush. Tries to look like he's "helping" by explaining what a hydra is. Tries to look like he's "helping" by explaining what OMGUS means. Paraphrases other people's posts for them. tehpoofer made a ton of posts today and you have summarized a few of them. Can you explain why these posts you have selected are alignment indicative, and what you think about all his other posts? vayne - Skipped early game. Skipped more because "migraine." FOS Palmer has skipped the game thus far because of dota. Why is he not on your FOS? sandroba - Gets town cred for calling out Koshi first Why is this town indicative? Why doesn't Bill Murray get town cred from calling out roundabout's sheeping the wrong player? exo - "I'm new guys please take it easy on me." FOS Why is this suspicious behavior? Bill Murray - My notes say "he liked exo's early posts." All of exo's early posts were questions about terminology that he could have easily googled. FOS Exo has made posts that are not just asking for terminology. Why did you discount these posts? TicaTica - Expert troll? Null read. Why did you give TicaTica a null read with no real explanation, and not included any of the other people who have posted in this thread? | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 12:14 Rainbows wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2014 11:52 Chairman Ray wrote: batsnacks, I do not fully understand your post, and was hoping you could clarify a few thing for me: Do you have specific posts? I feel you are speaking too metaphorically and I don't actually see what you mean in his filter. I'm not sure how to respond to this. What does "too impressive" mean? tehpoofer made a ton of posts today and you have summarized a few of them. Can you explain why these posts you have selected are alignment indicative, and what you think about all his other posts? Palmer has skipped the game thus far because of dota. Why is he not on your FOS? Why is this town indicative? Why doesn't Bill Murray get town cred from calling out roundabout's sheeping the wrong player? Why is this suspicious behavior? Exo has made posts that are not just asking for terminology. Why did you discount these posts? Why did you give TicaTica a null read with no real explanation, and not included any of the other people who have posted in this thread? I don't understand what this post is trying to achieve by CR. He claims to "not fully understand" this post, but asks questions about people not even referenced by bat, (IE Why not FoS Palmar? Why not include other people?) even asks why the null read at this stage in the game. What is the goal? I'm having a difficult time understanding Chair's motivations so far. My reply to batsnacks was to further read if he's mafia or not. I have two strong reads on why he's mafia, and I needed to be confirm with him that he just didn't misconvey his reads. 1) Mafia will often generalize or conceptualize and then attack based on that generalization and not the original context. A town will more likely consider a case by its face value. 2) Mafia will often pick certain reads to either seem active or try to push a certain agenda because all he has to do is not get lynched himself or push for a mislynch. They tend to be more inconsistent or random. A town does not know who else is town or mafia and has to look at everything. Now let's break down batsnack's post: Sinani - Scum. He treads too lightly and unsuccessfully tries to dodge the spotlight. He tries to direct the spotlight away from himself. 1. About sinani. There are specific posts but I don't feel like finding them. My notes are just my general feelings about the thread so far. Maybe my feelings are too metaphorical but at least I'm sharing them. This gives no tangible evidence to the rest of us. If he's just sharing his feelings and not even bothering to give specific posts or evidence. This is clearly just to make himself seem more active without being active. Chairman Ray - Too impressive a performance to be town. Leaning heavily toward mafia. 2. About you. Your posts are too intelligent and thorough. Are those better adjectives than "impressive"? I have said quite a bit this game and batsnacks wraps it all up into the word "impressive". He didn't have any feedback on what I have written. He didn't put any thought into why my reads could be accurate, or why they may be wrong. The only thing he seemed to get from it was that it was apparently "intelligent and thorough" and that was all he needed to give me "learning heavily toward mafia" tehpoofer - Scum. My notes say "gave a lame apology." Voted roundabout for bad reasons, then unvoted roundabout for equally bad reasons. Voted for Koshi and switched soon after without pressuring Koshi at all. Soft defended sinani early on, then voted him for bad reasons, then unvoted him for bad reasons. Noticing a pattern. Tries to look like he's "helping" by pointing out when the thread started for kush. Tries to look like he's "helping" by explaining what a hydra is. Tries to look like he's "helping" by explaining what OMGUS means. Paraphrases other people's posts for them. About tehpoofer. I believe everything I mentioned is alignment indicative. His posts have the theme of appearing to help but in ways that don't actually benefit town. Tehpoofer has said a lot this game. Again, batsnacks is just taking everything and wrapping it up in "appearing to help but in ways that don't actually benefit town" and it does seem that way if you are only considering the posts that batsnacks has summarized. If you look into tehpoofer's filter, he's been very active on a lot of things besides just voting people and helping with definitions. I think batsnacks is clearly avoiding evidence for the sake of this read. vayne - Skipped early game. Skipped more because "migraine." FOS 4. About Palmar. Palmar only made one "skip" post. Vayne made two consecutive "skip" posts. That's a big difference. I originally questioned batsnacks on this because "skip" posts warrant his suspicions, but only for the case of Vayne, and not Palmer. I still don't know what's the big difference between one "skip" post and two and he hasn't told me what the big difference is, but my impression was that this read was randomly thrown out there without much consideration. sandroba - Gets town cred for calling out Koshi first. 5. About sandroba. It's town indicative because I would have done the same thing. That thing that you said BillyMurray did either didn't make my notes because I interpreted whatever it was differently or because I missed it. This is the only towncred that batsnacks has awarded, and it's for something as little as being the first one to bash Koshi's post. If this meets the standard of towncred, a lot of other stuff should get towncred as well. So again, I feel this case was just randomly added without much consideration. Bill Murray - My notes say "he liked exo's early posts." All of exo's early posts were questions about terminology that he could have easily googled. FOS 6. About exo. He posts only to benefit himself, not town. If I were newb town and didn't know what hydras or OMGUSing was I would make damn sure I couldn't educate myself before I asked in the thread. I feel that batsnacks didn't really read either Exo's posts or Bill Murray's posts. Exo definitely said more than just asking about terminology. Bill Murray was not just referring to Exo's terminology questions when he said he liked exo's early posts. In fact, Bill Murray's filter has a lot of very interesting things and his opinion on Exo is just one little thing, but it was the one little thing that batsnacks chose to attack. Overall, these are my current suspicions on batsnacks: - batsnacks has done little to convey specific evidence or examples on any of his reads. This tells me that he's trying to seem active without being active. - he generalizes people's entire filters such as BM's, exo's, and mine, and attacks based on that generalization and chooses to disregard the context - every read that he has or doesn't have shows a very different standard of what constitutes as suspicious - the few reads that he has chosen are seemlingly random and I don't know why he decided on those instead of all else that has happened in the thread | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 12:51 Rainbows wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2014 09:20 Chairman Ray wrote: If Koshi is heading out for the night, I'm just gonna chime in now. Koshi's big analysis post reads pretty scummy to me. His mafia reads seem pretty sincere and thought out, but his town reads are very short. Whether or not he believes them himself is not evident, but it doesn't convey much to the reader. My initial thinking is that his townreads serve to 'bulk' up his post. I've seen a lot of mafia in previous games iterate through people and give a quick impression of them without a well thought out read on them. This gives the impression that they are active and their posts are longer without actually having to do a lot of investigation. What strikes me odd was his next post: Koshi posted this in response to the people that were dismissive of his reads. This is a very important distinction because people react differently when they are opposed by analysis and when they are opposed by a one liner. In this case, most people just posted a quick one liner dismissing him. From Koshi's perspective, if he just gave out a few quick impressions without a lot of thought, he wouldn't have any sort of attachment or loyalty to his post. His response to the critics would be something like "Those were just my gut feelings at the moment, they may change by the end of the day". Instead, he dismissed the critics with a one liner post containing no new information by posting "No sorry my towns are town". It may be hard to read into on forum mafia, but to me he sounds a bit frustrated and doesn't feel his critics doesn't deserve any more than a one liner. If this is the case, then Koshi has some genuine belief of his townreads, and regardless of the quality of his reads or how he conveyed them, this seems more town to me. tl;dr I disagree with Koshi's townreads, even though I am among them; I disagree with Sandroba that Koshi is mafia. I don't get CR's goal with his postings. he comes to no conclusion, just that some post made koshi scummy but his next post made him more town. So is he mafia or town for CR at this point? I care not that CR is posting intelligently (this is a good thing!!!), but there's a bunch of text with seemingly no bite involved atm Not every post has to strictly give a conclusion whether or not I think someone is mafia or town. I posted that analysis on Koshi because a few other people thought Koshi was mafia based on Koshi's reads. I wanted to to convey that while I agree some of Koshi's reads were problematic, these problems are not ones that mafia would do, but rather town would do. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 13:23 batsnacks wrote: Chairman, without reading the above post, I really wish both your posts about me weren't perfectly sequential dissections of literally everything I said. Sorry, I'll try to keep it brief from now on. You can just read the "Overall" statement at the end | ||
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On June 11 2014 14:06 batsnacks wrote: As soon as I stop getting this error message I will be happy to oblige. Until then, yeah, I like what Chairman Ray said because I appreciate good mafia play AND I still think he's scum. Are you claiming that town players will always play off-the-cuff? | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 14:15 batsnacks wrote: ALWAYS is a bad word to use in mafia. Your posts in general are guilty of generalizing how mafia is played. Add that to the problems I have with what you've contributed. Firstly, you have not given any response to my criticisms of you. All you did was try to redirection suspicions onto me. Secondly, you did the exact same thing with the question I just asked you. Thirdly, you took the word 'always' completely out of context in order to make it look like I made a blanket statement. It is very clear this isn't the case. I made a one line question so there wasn't much for you to read. I don't believe for a second that you made a reading error. This mistake was done intentionally. If you are wondering why I asked you that question, it was because you base your entire read off of me because you saw ONE person do something similar. A sample size of ONE. In order for you to make this read, you would have to have seen ZERO town play similarly. This is why I asked you believe that a town will always play off-the-cuff. I'm gonna stop right here because you like me to keep things short. But it's pretty clear you are playing this way intentionally. You are intentionally avoiding any criticism or question I have of you. You are willingly taking people's posts out of context and selecting those that are convenient to your scumreads while ignoring everything else. You have very arbitrary standards as to what you find towny and what you find scummy. Putting myself in your shoes, I can't picture the things you have said to be from someone trying to find out who's town and who's mafia. You clearly have the motivations of someone who's trying to look active, and trying to get a mislynch happening. I have a fairly strong read that you are mafia. ##Unvote ##Vote: batsnacks | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 11 2014 16:06 batsnacks wrote: First, I gave you a response, if you didn't like my response fine, but that's not the same as me not giving one. Secondly, I scum read you first. That isn't "redirecting" suspicion. It was already there. Third, I didn't take 'always' out of context. In that question you were asking me to say that town ALWAYS acts a certain way. That is the definition of a blanket statement. You are asking me to commit a blanket statement about how town behaves every game. I'm not going to do that. Fourth, I didn't base my entire read off of you because I saw "ONE" person do something similar. I brought up that specific example when I was talking to obiwan because me and obiwan were both in that game and I thought it would be relevant to him. Fifth, it's about time you voted me. When I gave my mafia read on you and when I asked you the follow up question, your response was simply to restate your scumread on me instead of talking about any of the points that I have raised. I do not consider this as a proper response but if you would like to consider it as not liking the response, I'm also okay with that. We both know exactly was said and naming it one way or another changes nothing. I still believe that you are taking 'always' out of context. You initially accused me of generalizing because I used the word 'always' in a blanket statement when in fact I was accusing you of doing this. These are two very different things and there's no mistaking one for the other. It was evident that you were generalizing when your entire defense was that you saw someone in a previous game with some similarities. You had no analysis on why being 'careful' or 'thorough' was scummy. How am I supposed to interpret this? How is anyone else supposed to interpret this? Given that this was just an example and you do have some reasoning in your mind, I'm willing to drop this, but I would still be delighted to know your reasoning. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On June 11 2014 16:49 batsnacks wrote: I responded to every point you made as best I could. Yes I restated the point I made about you with different adjectives, but if you read some of my other posts in that time frame you will notice I mentioned that you, at the time, were my weakest read. This is when I point out that you have made a bigger deal out of that than anything anyone has done in this game so far. About the second part, sorry I thought you were trying to trap me into making a blanket statement. Which, read it again from my perspective please: I don't think it was unreasonable for me to think that. Do I think that town players will usually play off-the-cuff as compared to mafia? Yes. "Usually" and "always" are hugely different though. I like this response a lot more. Clears up a lot. Thanks ##Unvote | ||
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On June 12 2014 04:58 gumshoe wrote: Hey, just caught up in a blitz. Here are my notes / : + Show Spoiler + Chanman = town for brave gallows houmer Palmer= neutral claim, fits? Maybs kill? Him bieng grey would explain his ambivilance, but if he was actually third party would he be so cavalier about it? Chrom= Town for yolo push onto Koshi, posts do seem well thought out too. Tehpoofter= redish for wanting spam? Round= talking alot, not sure scum can play so fluid. Robik is known to be pretty emotional so the whole peronsal defence thing is in character. bats= Aggresive. Dont like how everything reafirms his own bias, but his activity is helpful to town as a whole so townie? Jat= Dont like how he tries t interject in the bat round fight. Will read more into him Sinani- Unspoken tryst with round? Attacks other not quite as active players? Scumish? Ritoky = town for brazen freedom mongering Marv= null, biding his time one way or another. Dont like the whole “your bad and you should feel bad.” attitude he has regarding accusations. Tica Tica= not sure why hes calling back to plam? Feels townie cause hes clearing names and picking out odd targets. Doesnt feel like he has an agenda? Tefpoof= odd koshi attack? Dont like how he wanted to catch Marv for the sake of catching marv, feels like seeding? Meapak= Null? Wierdness obscures actual motives? Reads Marv as scum, will need to see more of him Vayne= Skips a bunch of pages? Not sure scum would feel safe enough to do that? Belies a sense of isolation or potentially scummy laziness. Hard to say. Kush= null Chairman= Dont like how he basically says he doesnt like a whole post, then proceeds to break it apart bit by bit. Yet doesnt make an accusation out of it? Feels like hes trying to get other townies to jump, as if “take your pick folks! I cant eat another bite / :” scummy, will elaborate on him. Exo= Scared to rush out opinions? Scumish Bill murray= Insane Yamato is fearless= town Rainbows= Like his whole “these guys are on the same page as me, and have the same process, I'm town ergo so are they!” Not necessarily right but reads as a townie mentality. Dont like this post by Chairman What I get from it is that he basically didnt like Bats whole post, but doesn't immediately jump on him for it? The way he so cleanly spread out his greivances, it feels like hes trying to offer everyone something to pounce on, but doesnt peronally leap on any of it himself. When the opposite happens, and people jump on him for the shoddy post, he comes out swinging, but drops the read after just a couple hours when no one really agrees with him / : Notably Bat was an enemy of Rounds, as was Chair man. Did he bilieve they were scum together? Cause he never took back his read on round. Honestly it seems as if the heat on Round died down a bit and he came after Bat because thats the conflict he was most familiar with ( when your maf you tend to focus more on the events that directly concern you and as a result your accusations lean that way because those are the matters your best versed in.) Yeah not a fan of the Chair....Man I did not immediately jump on batsnacks for his first post because there was not enough to indicate his alignment. He threw a lot of conclusions with very little reasoning behind them. It was important to know if these conclusions are just thrown out randomly and if these conclusions have any indication of alignment. That's why I asked follow-up questions to every one of his reads. I don't quite understand your second bit, but I'll try to give the best answer I can. Yesterday I focused on three key interactions - the one regarding round, the one regarding koshi, and the one regarding bat. Round and Koshi's matters did not involve me at all. Bat's matter stuck out to me because he had me as a scumread for a very questionable reason. When someone gives you a scumread, you will prioritize it regardless if you are town or mafia. On June 12 2014 05:29 HaruRH wrote: I can agree with gumshoe on CR. Like I mentioned, CR's initial attack on koshi seemed to be gathering towncred in later stages of the game by referencing to it. I don't see a need for town to do it. All the votes on koshi were... weird. Rainbows and ticatica just sat on the koshiwagon and drove off together. Not a good sign tbh. My vote on koshi is a placeholder. Now that he deviates off his HUGE ASS POST PLAYMAKER style, he seemed to be more obnoxious than ever. Its hard to find obnoxious scum who might succumb to a policy lynch. ##Vote:Chairman Ray Just to clear things up, I did not attack Koshi; I defended him. If you are still interested, do you want to reread the part, or should I give you a quick summary? On June 12 2014 07:32 ExO_ wrote: Chairman has gone quiet after having some of the longest analysis I've seen. I find the silence odd, and as I said earlier I found him to be either very overconfident in his own analyses or have knowledge the rest of us don't by which to make them. So I'm going to vote Chairman for the time being. ##Vote Chairman I was away for only 14 hours, because I need to sleep and go to work in the morning. Is this an actual scumread on me, or did you just want to put my name back on the table for your other read? In terms of me being overconfident, can you point out where this is evident? I understand that if someone seems to know other people's alignments, they are likely to be mafia, but the only person that I've really had a read on was round, and I think he's mafia. I'm leaning town on Koshi, and I need to reevaluate bat, but I'm leaning mafia. | ||
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Roundabound - He was super active yesterday when the heat was on him. He has one of the longest filters out of everyone. Today these are all the posts he has made: On June 12 2014 09:28 roundabound wrote: Hi, BM went from ugly duckling into beautiful swan. ##Unvote Robik is flying & im playing video mafia. Defaulting to Ketomai who hasnt provided any of his promised analysis. ##Vote: Ketomai ~moc On June 12 2014 09:34 roundabound wrote: Where are you up to in the thread, pls ~moc On June 12 2014 09:39 roundabound wrote: Do what you want. My suggestion is to read the thread. Theres still 24hrs. Selective reading, produces selective context, and meaningless reads. ~moc On June 12 2014 10:04 roundabound wrote: I try to be as accommodating to all types of filth. Thank you for the kind words. ~moc First he dropped a vote on Ketomai. Ketomai promised many times that he was going to give some reads today. I also hold Ketomai to his promise, but when this vote was made, the day was still early. Round didn't even wait to see if Ketomai would deliver or not. This seems to me like a very forced reason to vote. All the other posts in this day have been interacting with Erandor, who just arrived at the thread. Round is obviously active at this time, but this is the only activity that he could provide. It seems to me like he wants to seem active but doesn't want to participate in any real discourse at hand. Now let's look at strong's posts: On June 11 2014 23:41 strongandbig wrote: Finished reading through page 48 on phone Have to go to work Some notes to calm thy tits, thread: Townish: - chromatically Scummish: - palmar not trying on day 1 - koshi for pretty random townreads and listpost - rainbows bad reasoning for scum read on koshi. Tries to make something shitty up, indicates he's not comfortable just agreeing with good reasoning already posted - indicates selfconscious mafia. Good args: - chromatically on why sinani is scum - mz on why round is scum - koshi on why tica is scum - (sort of good) round on why ketomi is scum On June 12 2014 04:17 strongandbig wrote: This is stupid. There's nothing wrong with an in-depth post by post analysis and the fact that newer players don't know this is just a sign of how spammy and annoying the meta has gotten . On June 12 2014 04:55 strongandbig wrote: Blergh caught up with the thread and lunch is over [complain about spam, maybe if I do it more it's likely to work] Anyway, I would kill koshi right now. Don't have anything new to add, I like chromatic ally's case Also would still kill rainbows 1st and 4th post are just random summaries. The 2nd and 3rd posts are very indicative of scum. Strongandbig is active at this time, and the only thing he posts about is something non-alignment indicative and happened like 15 pages ago. This is clearly an attempt to seem like he's engaged in the conversation when he's actually avoiding it altogether. | ||
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On June 12 2014 11:44 ObiWanShinobi wrote: chairman, why is roundabound scum? you say its because he voted ketomai because its early in the day, even though its not really early and ketomai clearly made a promise to deliver and didnt. i fail to see the issue with either of these players and that "analysis" really bothers me. On June 12 2014 11:48 ObiWanShinobi wrote: actually, since youre posting so much analysis on other players, lets see some on ketomai. after all, hes a hot topic for you and you kind of overlook his broken promise and the fact that moc has a natural progression of reads... Regarding ketomai, he was active yesterday between 7 and 8 PST. He said he was going to post his read the next day. I was waiting until after his active period until I call him out on his promises. It's unfair to give someone a scumread for not delivering before they come on. Given that ketomai has posted some reads, this issue is no longer relevant. Just to elaborate on my issue with those two players, I find it scummy when players are active, but their posts are not very productive. From a town perspective, a town will have the incentive to participate in the discussion at hand, and if there is not enough discussion, promote more discussion. A mafia already knows who everyone is, so discussion doesn't really benefit them directly and they're not likely to put in all the time and effort doing so. What mafia wants is to blend in and look like they are being active. The easiest way to do this is to make posts that don't require you to really read the thread or cause a lot of people to reply to you. This is evident in round's posts when he chose to interact with a new player coming in. This doesn't require him to read any of the discussion that's going on, and there's nothing to reply to those posts. Since round gave an excuse on both their absences today, I'll re-evaluate on this point. In strongandbig's posts, he picked on some weaker posts that were made like 15 pages ago. Those posts were not even relevant to the discussion at hand and had already been dealt with ages ago. | ||
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Thinking the same thing regarding Haru. I was gonna post a case on him tomorrow when I have a good chunk of free time, but looks like you've done most of the work for me ^^. Just a couple things I would like to add though. Firstly his case against me. I was sort of bothered by how he thought I was attacking Koshi. My case was defending Koshi, but with some comments earlier about some things in Koshi's post that read scummy to me. This seems to me like he didn't really read it fully. It would make sense is Haru already knew that he's going to give a scumread on me, and then looked through my filter to find something, started reading up until the point where I say Koshi is sorta scummy, and then assumed the rest was gonna be the same. After that, everything he did at the end of the day was really fishy. Firstly when SnB became the leading vote, Haru posted his case on him. There were many cases posted on why SnB may be scum, so if Haru read them and agreed with them, as town he would just say he agrees and put in a vote. If Haru didn't read the cases on SnB, then by some coincidence, out of everyone he investigated, he came up with same conclusion as the current wagon at the same time as well. But if this were the case, his read on SnB would be a lot more detailed and actually explain some evidence of SnB's alignment. Since it's neither, what would make the most sense is that Haru saw that the wagon was on SnB, and wanted to vote SnB looking like he investigated it himself. Next thing, I find it odd as well how he completely avoided the whole discussion on KotC, but then Chrom put in a read on ritoky, in which Haru jumped on the vote right away. | ||
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Gonna drop a quick vote before I head to bed on someone who's more afk than I am ##Vote: Erandorr | ||
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Sup Who's excited for USA vs Ghana!!! WOOOOO U S A U S A U S A! | ||
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On June 17 2014 03:50 27ninjabunnies wrote: Me-ish? More of the fact, my mom got interviewed for Jimmy Kimmel Live abut the USA/Ghana game, and I want to see if she gets put on TV  Your mom is awesome! Post clip if it happens | ||
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On June 17 2014 03:55 27ninjabunnies wrote: Also, many people think you are mafia.... Including me, for that vote on Errandor/Me. Why did you place that vote, when it was a high possibility Errandor could have been modkilled and replaced? Plus I'm sure you had a case somewhere on someone else! It's super odd- and quite scummy. Oh yeah, reading votes and flips now. Looks like there was some sorta train on me. I burned my vote because I was afk the whole day. It's true that I had a case against round and haru, but I didn't feel comfortable dropping my vote on either of them because I didn't read any of their defenses, any new cases that popped up, or any of their more recent filters. So if I voted them and they got lynched, it wouldn't be because of anything they did, but because I didn't read. Doesn't seem too fair, does it? Anyways, gonna read some cases people have posted. Probly playing sheep mode while world cup happening. USA USA USA USA | ||
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Also, I'm dying to know if the vote switch from SnB to KotC on d1 was from town to mafia or from mafia to mafia. It's really weird that there was so little effort from anyone to divert the vote from KotC. | ||
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On June 18 2014 09:30 27ninjabunnies wrote: Take CR and batsnack off your list. Or tell me why they shouldnt be lynched. I like batsnacks, don't wanna lynch him... or myself | ||
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Doesn't really make a difference, but ##Unvote ##Vote: MattIisfoolish | ||
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This looks strikingly similar to day 1. In day 1, there was very little resistance to save KotC. This could mean that mafia didn't want to use their vote power until more towns were in favor of switching, or that SnB was mafia, and it was inevitable that a mafia was gonna be lynched that day. 1. In the first case, there wasn't a lot of sway to try to get people off KotC and back on SnB. However near the end, there was a useless bandwagon started on ritoky. It was pretty clear that the vote was either gonna be on SnB or KotC. I have a suspicion that Chrom might be mafia and tried to start this bandwagon as a last ditch effort. No other mafia tried to promote this wagon or vote on it, so they could be waiting for more town approval before doing so in order to avoid suspicion. 2. In the second case, if both SnB and KotC were mafia, it would also explain the ritoky votes. Regardless, if two mafia were up for lynch and there was little way to divert it, then it would make sense for there to be little resistance. Now looking back on today's vote, things look quite similar. When gumshoe and mif were about even, mif took off without much resistance. Then a couple useless votes came on me when it's obvious that it was either gonna be gumshoe of mif. I think it's very possible that mif is mafia, and tica is doing the same thing chrom was doing on day 1, or that both gumshoe and mif are mafia. I still would like to vote SnB, but mif is also a pretty good bet. | ||
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I know, kinda useless today, but can we consider lynching SnB tomorrow? | ||
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Also kind of fishy when you're the only one who's trying to figure the game out at the start of the night phase. You don't think that maybe the mafia might try to kill you for it? | ||
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 Rainbows is my only friend | ||
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On June 20 2014 08:10 27ninjabunnies wrote: The yam kill made absolutely no sense. Do we have noob mafia players? And the JAT kill, eh, still weird over people like HF, Marv, and you imo. Look at who got shot the night before, tehpoofter, koshi, and kush. Mafia don't have an interest in taking out the high profile players. Yesterday the town focused all discussion on three people who turned out to be town. I don't know why we still have our attention on the less active players here. | ||
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On June 20 2014 09:09 marvellosity wrote: well i just gave the scenario where it made sense, but ok. you best tell us who you think these active mafia players are and why I'm not personally familiar with your play, Holyflare's, or Rounds, and you all play at a high enough caliber that I'm not latch onto anything particularly scummy. The outcomes of all you guys' actions make sense from both a town or a mafia perspective. The only thing I wouldn't see making sense is if SnB is town, and you or Obiwan is mafia, but I'm pretty sure SnB is mafia, so there goes that read. | ||
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On top of all the other cases I have posted on SnB, his overall activity really shows mafia. I know that a lot of the people who flipped town and also myself have dwindled in activity. The difference between all the inactives that flipped VT and SnB is that the VTs have really tried at some point in the game. SnB had a medium level of posts at the start, to very little at the moment, but what stayed constant was his level of trying. If you look through his filter, he has never tried to give any in depth cases or try to scumhunt. His most recent case was a unnecessarily long post that just said "Holy or Round are scum because they are pushing less active people". He spent the time tabulating everyone's filter lengths, and then his entire evidence and case by saying "Actually wait fuck none of the three of them have discernible scum reads on people who aren't sinani and below, at least not that are mentioned in their last several pages. This is another reason I hate the spammy reactive style, makes it impossible to figure anything out". This shows that he just wrote that entire post on the fly without having the reads or evidence beforehand. Seems like a mafia thing to do to show activity. I did some more filter diving, and if SnB flips mafia, then I'm thinking a very likely scumteam may be strongandbig, Chromatically, Ketomai, kushm4sta, Holyflare, and TheKingoftheCats. I'll push on these people after flip. ##Vote: strongandbig | ||
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On June 21 2014 04:38 strongandbig wrote: How am I supposed to find them you have like 23 pages There is none of that in like the last threeish pages of your filter. If you are going to scumread holy for not pushing on certain people, you gotta base it on more than his last 3 pages. Go to his filter, hit All to bring up everything, and ctrl+f people's names and you'll find everyone he's talked about. | ||
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On June 21 2014 04:45 marvellosity wrote: honestly i don't hate all of these posts from s&b like everyone else seems to. Maybe my scum-ometer is just off this game (barring a nice d1 catch). I wonder if CR's "filter diving" was anything like KotC's filter diving... :> Do you think the scumteam I have in mind is plausible? | ||
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##unvote ##vote: ritoky | ||
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##unvote | ||
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A big red flag for me right now is why the heck did ritoky fakeclaim to get a response from 27nb, when 27nb isn't even here? Ritoky directed everything at Chrom. Ritoky made sure Chrom was here by doing a little preamble with him. If Ritoky had any intention of trying to trap 27nb, he would have did the same with 27nb. Between Chrom and 27nb, it doesn't make sense to try to get a reaction from Chrom when he was green checked. Now, a few other people here besides me are trying to argue that ritoky is making a town mistake. I think ritoky is mafia, Chrom is mafia, and at least one of the people defending ritoky is mafia. It was all planned out and the intention was to give ritoky towncred and more importantly, have Chrom be confirmed as town. | ||
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##vote: ritoky | ||
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On June 21 2014 10:38 ritoky wrote: and so people can stop trying to interpret my thought process, i will tell you it: step 1) let's read mafia thread step 2) nothing really interesting is going on here...it's the same people pushing the same exact reads on the same lurkers; and they refuse to doubt eachother step 3) i am bored, maybe i should liven this game up step 4) well i am pretty sure bunnies is mafia, maybe i should fake claim a red on her step 5) hey look chrom is here, maybe i should use my going hard on him as an excuse to keep a green check alive step 6) come out as cop too hard before getting reactions step 7) cascade into flames step 8) rescind claim step 9) probably get lynched for bad play I was just going to ask about this. Thanks for posting it ahead to time. Question, what did you mean in step 5? Also, if you decided to fake claim a red on 27nb before you went in, why didn't you wait for 27nb to be on? From how you came out, it sounds a lot more like you decided redcheck 27nb after coming out as cop. | ||
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On June 21 2014 10:53 ritoky wrote: 27nb posted like an hour or 2 before I made the claim the she was around and babysitting (might have had times wrong) so I thought she was here. Re step 5: people were going to push for checks either before or after the reaction, it is not uncommon (at least where I come from) to half-heartedly tunnel on your n1 green check as a cop. plus chrom was in the thread so he could give response to the situation. I still don't understand your step 5 though. You are not the cop, so what does Chrom's green check have to do with anything? | ||
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On June 21 2014 11:09 ritoky wrote: If you claim cop, people will ask for checks. They always do, even if you fake claim and rescind; they always ask for every check. So you need to have checks thought up. So I thought up a basic reason for a green check on chrom, mostly because he was here and I wanted to interact with him (since I had him as scum and every1 i town read had him as town). If you're looking for a good answer, you're not in luck. It was bad play. I'm trying to see this from a perspective where the play wasn't planned well. So you needed to have some fake green check, I understand that. But to put your #1 scum as the greencheck isn't the something I can see you doing 'on-the-whim'. If I was cornered and needed to produce a fake greencheck right away, I would say marv. I'll give this some more thought, but things just aren't lining up atm. | ||
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On June 21 2014 11:23 ritoky wrote: why would any1 night 1 check marv after he led the lynch on a mafia, even more a mafia that reduced kp? you wouldn't have been believed lol. You're right, but if I'm going to be looking at this from a perspective of a bad play, I can't rule out poor decisions. | ||
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On June 21 2014 11:39 Rainbows wrote: everytime i get close to lynching CR someone takes it away from me. this game is ass. how would you feel if i told you that you were town? | ||
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On June 21 2014 11:48 batsnacks wrote: Why not vote marv with me? At least consider it as an alternative to your plan. I feel that if you are going to vote marv, SnB needs to flip first. The vote on day 1 was between SnB and a mafia. Would be extremely weird for marv to take the lynch off a town and onto his mafia buddy, costing them 1 kp. I can see him doing it if SnB was mafia though. | ||
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On June 21 2014 11:58 batsnacks wrote: I'm not saying you're wrong but lets be real. No one is going to switch off of ritoky because it's the easy answer and people want the easy answer. Ritoky made a mistake and now everyone gets to punish him for it. That's what people like doing. I don't think the easy answer is the correct one this time so screw the majority I'm voting marv for now. I'm glad we are keeping this case open though. There is so much information here that if we look enough, we can determine a very high likelihood if ritoky is town or if ritoky is mafia. Every lynch after this will be more of a coinflip because nobody will pull another ritoky. If we only get two mislynches, I sincerely hope this isn't one of them. | ||
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On June 21 2014 12:36 ritoky wrote: question for anyone and everyone who wants to answer: when i flip VT, who do you think looked the worst amidst all of this? why? if you don't believe i am VT, then replace "when i flip" with "in the world that i flip" If you have an idea on this, you can post it. If you flip VT, we'll take your reads into account, otherwise we'll just ignore it. The most likely case is that there's not enough people active to swing the votes in any other way. | ||
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On June 21 2014 14:03 ritoky wrote: i sincerely hope obiwan is mafia because that is a piss poor attitude for a town to have. can understand bunnies though, i have fake red checked her in 2 of the 4 games we have played together  have either of them worked? | ||
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On June 21 2014 14:21 27ninjabunnies wrote: Must have been, cause i never got a message. But anyway, it doesnt matter if I was recuited or not. You fake claimed red on me when i was town. Both times. And this time. Your read on me is awful. Was he town those times? Was it just as bad as this one? | ||
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On June 21 2014 14:24 ritoky wrote: i've never not rolled town on TL forums. not a signle time. and she's not giving credit to my read on her, it was dead on in 2/3 games. to be determined after this game if it's 75% or 50%. If you've had this much practice redclaiming 27nb when you're town, I would expect a lot better this time. | ||
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On June 21 2014 14:24 batsnacks wrote: Look at this: Before ritoky fake claimed: After ritoky fake claimed: After the thread realized ritoky fake claimed: vayne and Tica have been on ritoky the whole time rainbows, holyflare, and marv switched votes from bunnies to ritoky when the fake claim was discovered snb and exo switched from bunnies to ritoky when the fake claim was discovered What's the conclusion from this? | ||
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On June 21 2014 14:24 ObiWanShinobi wrote: yeah, im gonna vote nb. if town still cares at this point youll follow me. killing someone whos making a stupid move and essentially killing himself is probably not the way to go. its highly unlikely this guy is mafia. in fact, if you go back and look at YOSO he reminds me so much of caller that i cant help but see the parallels. im not voting him today and i dont care if that makes me look bad or not. Is there a case on nb being mafia? | ||
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On June 21 2014 14:33 ritoky wrote: btw you still haven't responded to my question. who, outside of me, do you think looks most scummy from this entire interaction? why? I think your alignment will give us important info, but this entire interaction is null. If you flip VT, it was perfectly reasonable for mafia to push on you, passively vote you, or defend you for town cred. It's also perfectly reasonable for town to do all these things. I'm not gonna speculate too deeply into this now because you haven't flipped yet. | ||
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On June 21 2014 14:59 ObiWanShinobi wrote: CR is actually doing the exact same thing so he needs to die as well. I don't understand what you are referring to but okay | ||
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On June 21 2014 15:20 ObiWanShinobi wrote: day 2. and also your "lynching for information" post in regards to ritoky was so unbelievably bad that you should die for that alone. I'm not lynching ritoky for information. My vote is currently on ritoky because the way in which he came out as cop does not line up at all with a town fakeclaiming cop to pressure someone. | ||
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On June 21 2014 15:24 ritoky wrote: to be fair though, the way i fake claimed cop is so bad that it doesn't really line up with anything. That's why I'm still here talking about this | ||
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On June 21 2014 15:28 ObiWanShinobi wrote: you are CR. you are doing exactly that. you should die for this post alone. also, the white knighting thing doesnt apply. i thought it did but i dont have the word to describe what you did in regards to yesterday's lynch. someone else hit a nail on the head when you pretended to care about the 3 townies getting lynched after doing nothing, though. Looks like we have a bit of a misunderstanding here. Ritoky asked me that if he hypothetically flipped town, what information can I gain from it. My answer was that his flip gave us some information, which is pretty much a given since everyone's flip gives us information. That was the best answer I could give because he asked me this on the spot and I haven't really considered this too much. Let me make it clear that I did not suggest at all that I want to lynch ritoky for information | ||
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On June 21 2014 15:41 ObiWanShinobi wrote: i dont believe a word coming out of your mouth. die pls. Ok seriously? Go through my filter and look through all my interaction with the ritoky case. I have no idea how you come up with the conclusion that I just want to lynch him for information. | ||
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On June 21 2014 15:45 batsnacks wrote: It DOES matter because he told us he had a red check on her. Usually when you say you have a red check on someone you vote them? I think it makes sense. Both a mafia or a town fakeclaiming cop may forget to place the vote, especially ritoky. | ||
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On June 21 2014 16:10 ExO_ wrote: Been at a party, and I'm catching up. Skimming through it looks like ritoky is saying he's going to flip VT. That's vanilla town right? Am I missing something or does that make absolutely no sense, why the fake claim? Also has anybody stepped up and claimed to have the role that Ritoky was fake claiming? Chrom is the miller, which proved ritoky's claim false. Ritoky rescinded and claimed VT. Nobody has claimed cop yet, and unless he knows ritoky is town or someone else is mafia, there isn't a good reason to come out. | ||
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Ritoky is not mafia. 27nb is. If you want to read through the filter yourself, go ahead, if not, I'll give you the relevant key points. In Golden Sun, Ritoky faked a claim against 27nb. He did it when 27nb wasn't around, and opened it off by discussing his claim with other people. In this game, Ritoky redclaimed against 27nb when 27nb wasn't on yet, and opened it off by discussing with Chrom. In Golden Sun, Ritoky did not really put much consideration into the option that he might get counterclaimed. In this game, Ritoky got screwed over when Chrom turned out to be miller. In Golden Sun, 27nb was not one of Ritoky's scumreads, but then he chose 27nb out of everyone to do the fakeclaim on. He didn't do the fakeclaim on someone he had as scum. In this game, 27nb was not one of Ritoky's scumreads, but then he just decided to fakeclaim on 27nb out of everyone. Ritoky basically just did the exact same sequence for the claim. This is exactly what he does as town on the exact same person, for the third time. He approached it the exact same way, and the only difference really is that he got counterclaimed this time. Does this mean that Ritoky is town? Not 100%, but it's likely, due to him performing his town strategy. He could also be faking it, but if that were the case, he would have probably said at some point that he's done this kind of thing before. He didn't say anything about doing this twice in previous games until I asked him specifically. Now let's look at 27nb. I would like to start off with this quote from Golden Sun, and a quote from this game On May 27 2014 05:54 27ninjabunnies wrote: Well you were freaking wrong... Like seriously... I would also like to reiterate that ritoky has fakeclaimed against 27nb in previous games as town twice. From reading 27nb's filter, it reads as if this is the first time 27nb has ever been fakeclaimed against. 27nb is fully aware that ritoky does this kind of thing as town and is used to it by now, so why is she responding this way? If 27nb thinks ritoky is town, she will allude to previous games and mention that ritoky fakeclaims as town and is terrible at it. If 27nb thinks ritoky is mafia, she might look for subtle differences between this game and what she's used to. But instead, we get responses like this: On June 21 2014 14:54 27ninjabunnies wrote: No, we are voting ritoky cause he fake claimed a red on a town, greened someone who claimed miller, and then when he realized it was going to shit, he rescinded and claimed VT. He will be a question mark from here on out unless a cop checked him, but even then he could be GF, so i think it's in town's best interest to get rid of him. 27nb is going strongly on Ritoky, but her reasonings are not that great. A lot of other people who voted Ritoky pointed to things that separate a town fakeclaiming to a mafia fakeclaiming. Tica's case is a good example. Even after everything, she concludes that Ritoky is just a question mark. Why does 27nb want to lynch Ritoky for being a question mark read, and even if cop checks him clean? That doesn't make any sense. I think I understand what OWS was talking about when he mentioned white-knighting. This seems to me like town is starting to think Ritoky might not be mafia, so the response from 27nb is to keep the lynch on Ritoky, regardless of his role or cop check. This is a really mafia thing to do, especially this close to mylo. I'm gonna have to consider this a bit more in the morning, but I can't imagine 27nb's response to ritoky's fakeclaim being like this if she's well aware that ritoky does this kind of thing. She's being quite defensive and is pushing really hard for this lynch despite not having any reads on Ritoky's alignment. What really changed between this game and the previous ones? It makes sense if 27nb is mafia this time around. | ||
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##vote: 27ninjabunnies Going to bed now. Hopefully I'll be here tomorrow before the deadline. Please reconsider the case on ritoky. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On June 23 2014 18:09 ObiWanShinobi wrote: basically meaning youre trying to look for the jailkeeper, because youre mafia. Fair enough, makes sense for jk targets to not claim since we're not claiming jk. I was thinking more of verifiying claims when they come. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
TheKingoftheCats kushm4sta strongandbig 27ninjabunnies Holyflare VayneAuthority strongandbig - This is on top of the other cases on SnB that I have made. Today SnB made his first real case, and it was on Chrom: On June 23 2014 23:45 strongandbig wrote: Ok suppose chrom is town tracker and sinani is scum - the only way sinani guesses correctly who chrom visited is by random chance. He knows chrom was tracker so he would visit someone, but there was a very small chance he guesses correctly given that there's more than ten players still left. I'm comfortable saying sinani is actually tracker. Then for chrom to have visited rainbows, he either would have to be actual tracker, or sergeant using his KP or roleblock. The thing is, if chrome's scum why would be claim miller to the ritocky check? He would know that ritocky is fakeclaiming but why give up the green check? Answer: he would do this if ninja bunnies was also scum. He would have to do it, otherwise we lynch bunnies, get a red result, then ritocky reveals the fakeclaim and chrom doesn't even get the green check. This makes way more sense as a justification for a fakeclaim than what slam did btw. In a game with a known number of blue roles, there's literally no reason for slam to fakeclaim when he did. So we have a 50-50 chance of hitting mafia between slam and chrom, and I think there was way more scum motivation for chrom's fakeclaim than for slam's. ##vote: chromatically The voting does not make sense with this read. SnB believes that Chrom is mafia because he fakeclaimed to save 27nb. By this logic, SnB should vote on 27nb instead, because Chrom being mafia is dependent on 27nb being mafia, and 27nb can be mafia without Chrom being mafia. Even if both 27nb and Chrom are mafia, 27nb would be what a town would naturally vote, since there's already a wagon on her and nothing on Chrom. I think this is a soft bus on a teammate. SnB is essentially giving a mafia associative read on two people, and choosing to start a brand new wagon on the one that makes less sense. 27ninjabunnies - My last case on 27nb still stands. Just to reiterate it, I think 27nb is mafia because of the way she reacted to the ritoky fakeclaim. If ritoky fakeclaimed on me twice in previous games as VT, and he did it again this game, then I would use those past experiences as a basis for my reads on ritoky. However if I was mafia and I want to get ritoky lynched, then I would only reveal past experiences if it were convenient. This seems like the case here. I also find it fishy how she gave Holyflare a towncard without giving a case. She just said: Holyflare has been trying to figure this out and not solely complaining on how this game has gone to shit. I think that town can also give someone a townread from just an impression, but this case it is different. In this game, it is clear that mafia's main strategy is to get inactive people mislynched. Look at every lynch that's happened so far. Mafia are probably still in the mindset that pushing on inactives is the thing to do. At this stage of the game, it's probably mylo, and 27nb is already trying to figure out possible teams of 5. I find it very suspicious that she's completely disregarding holyflare in her mafia arrangements or individual reads: On June 24 2014 05:33 27ninjabunnies wrote: Oh I am definitely interested in scum. And if you are town, you need to try and convince me and the other town why the other five are scum and which deserves a better lynch. VA, Batsnacks, OWS, CR, and SNB would be the mafia outside of you if you believe all the claims, and then me and HF as town. But if you have a better team of 5, please tell me Holyflare - We've already discussed and we know that there is at least one super active player among the mafia team. Otherwise, why would mafia be shooting less active people during the night, and voting on inactive players during the day? That would be suicide. Marv flipped town, and round is pretty sure to be town now. That's why I'm investigating Holyflare. Firstly, Holyflare could be mafia because of the association with 27nb. I don't think that when it's mylo, mafia will try to pocket unconfirmed town. Secondly, mafia have been very good at making sure town lynches between inactive towns every day. Holyflare has had a great hand directing this, except for the first day. Makes sense because Holyflare wasn't here the first day because he had to study for exams. Looking at the activity of the other 5 people on my mafia list, it makes perfect sense why mafia was not able to save themselves on the first day. Lastly, it also explains kushm4sta, and I have to credit marv for this read: On June 16 2014 04:59 marvellosity wrote: holy you are so fucking scummy with your tedious fucking tunnel. On June 16 2014 06:16 marvellosity wrote: then if kush flips scum we lynch holy because he always busses On June 17 2014 04:59 Koshi wrote: I shot Kush. Not many people scumreading him though. Dnu. I went Kush --> Gumshoe --> Kush life sucks. On June 17 2014 05:18 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Koshi the Whie Malreaux (Vigilante) has been slain! kushm4sta the ?????? has been slain! VayneAuthority - This read I'm not too sure on because there's so little to work off of. I checked everyone else and they are unlikely to be mafia associated with this team, but VA might be. The thing that sticks out with VA is that he finally became active today, but all his posts so far have been about numbers and mechanics, finally ending with a post to lynch me because I'm less active. It might be mylo right now, and suddenly everyone who was inactive before has become active. VA is still trying to push for lynching inactives, even though that's the exact strategy that mafia has pushed all game. Both events make perfect sense. In the group that is left, mafia can no longer sit back because there are no more ketomai's to lynch, so they have to be active. VA is suggesting to lynch me, showing that mafia still have the mindset to lynching inactives. tl;dr This mafia team explains why: - Mafia couldn't get a mislynch on day 1 - Mafia have been great at mislynching into inactive towns every other day - Why kushm4sta was janitored - Why everyone is so active now that it is mylo - Associations between all these players ##Vote: 27ninjabunnies | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
This game is pretty thrown | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Sinani Unconfirmed roles (1 mafia here) Alakaslam Chromatically Unconfirmed town (3 mafia here) 27ninjabunnies roundabound Chairman Ray strongandbig Holyflare VayneAuthority | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
If he's a real tracker, then his claim is simple, and everything checks out. This would have to mean that Alakaslam is mafia. However if Chrom mafia, then we have to look at why he fakeclaimed. We can split this into two scenarios where 27nb is mafia and where 27nb is town. If 27nb is mafia and Chrom is godfather, then at that moment they would probably think that Ritoky is the real cop. Chrom fakeclaimed as a way to save 27nb and try to get a mislynch on the cop. Ritoky's claim was pretty stupid anyways, so mafia could easily win the argument. However if Chrom is either vanilla mafia or knows that 27nb is town, then he would already know that Ritoky is fakeclaiming. There is absolutely no need for Chrom to fakeclaim against Ritoky, because there already exists a cop that will counterclaim, producing the exact same result. Chrom fakeclaiming in this situation would just be meaningless suicide. So we can split possible mafia scenarios into two buckets: #1 Chromatically - Mafia godfather 27ninjabunnies - Mafia Alakaslam - Town vet #2 Alakaslam - Mafia Chromatically - Town tracker | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
If Chrom is mafia vig/janitor, it doesn't make sense for him to fakeclaim. He knows that ritoky is fake cop if ritoky gave him a green check. If 27nb is mafia, then the optimal play would be to wait for the real cop to counterclaim, lynch ritoky that day, kill the cop, resulting in a ML and cop kill at no expense. If 27nb is town, then the optimal play would be to take the free green check, either let town mislynch 27nb if cop doesn't come out, or let town mislynch ritoky if cop does come out. Ritoky fakeclaiming was the greatest gift to mafia, and Chrom just threw it away. Doesn't make any sense to me. ##Vote: Alakaslam | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 26 2014 12:03 strongandbig wrote: like, your reasoning only makes sense if you assume the real cop will counterclaim but there's no reason to assume that It's not a guaranteed assumption that cop will claim, however there is a likelihood that another cop, rolecop, tracker, or jailkeeper may reveal information to counterclaim ritoky. If any of them has any information that points to ritoky being fake, they will reveal right away because saving 27nb and getting a mafia lynched is very worth uncovering a role. Chrom didn't wait to see if anybody would claim. He counterclaimed right away. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On June 26 2014 16:18 27ninjabunnies wrote: CR, SNB, HF, and VA are mafia. Lets go. Vote SNB Do you think both slam and chrom are town then? | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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