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Alright, here's my promised vote/flip analysis:
On June 23 2014 13:02 Alakaslam wrote:Final Vote Count – Day 1 scott31337 (1): Lord Tolkein, The_Templar, scott31337 Lord Tolkien (0): HaruRHTheKingOfTheCats (0): NydusHerMain, MysteryMeat1meatpudding (4): Teemursu, scott31337, HaruRH, The_Templar, jabberwockzerg, Epishade, GlowingBear, MysteryMeat1, The_TemplarHaruRH (0): meatpuddingjabberwockzerg (0): HobbitusMysteryMeat1 (8): TheKingOfTheCats, Lord Tolkien, Epishade, Hobbitus, The_Templar, jabberwockzerg, NydusHerMain, The_Templar, meatpudding Not voting (2): Solar424, BlondeMocha
MysteryMeat1 is lynched with 8 votes.
Day 1 has ended.
Notes:
On MM's wagon:
TheKingOfTheCats, Lord Tolkien, Epishade, Hobbitus, The_Templar, jabberwockzerg, NydusHerMain, The_Templar, meatpudding
Number of vote switches
4
The_Templar (scott -> meatpudding -> MM -> Meatpudding p> MM)
1
Lord Tolkien ( scott -> MM)
Epishade ( meatpudding -> MM)
Hobbitus (jabber -> MM)
jabber (meatpudding -> MM)
Nydus (Kotc -> MM)
meatpudding (haru -> MM)
0
TheKingOfTheCats
Immediate notes:
Templar is the outlier with 4 vote switches. Anomaly in calculations.
Kotc started the wagon and did not switch.
4 are from previous wagons (Lord Tolkien, Epishade, jabber, Nydus)
My Observations & Reads
-Following the collapse of the Scott-wagon, Tolkien immediately jumped to the MM wagon. This is not really much of a tell, but Tolkien's reasoning for hopping to the MM-wagon could be used to hop back to the meatpudding wagon. Try it by yourself, you'll be shocked how close the case of both meats are.
-Epishade jumped to the MM-Wagon next from a meatpudding wagon. This too have not much of a tell, but he managed to hop to the MM-wagon despite giving questionable reasons.
Though meatpudding hasn't really done much to convince me, Meat's inactivity and illogical/inconsistent posting has made me question my vote on meatpudding in favor of a better lynch.
Sorry Meat. You might be town, but you've made questionable choices for me to not vote you.
-Hobbitus's reason for hopping wagon is equally weird.
It won't give us much info besides confirming me and Tolkien as town. If pudding gets lynched and flips scum well off the top of my head Teemu started pushing for his lynch first and Haru was pushing it the most so they'd be pretty much conf town. As for anyone else i can't really say atm. I'll have to re-read D1 if meatpudding gets lynched regardless of his alignment.
This was the quote he agreed with and changed to MM-wagon. His reasoning for switching wagon should be to discredit Tolkien&Kotc as town.
- I don't like jabber's voting pattern at all. He read pudding as a townlean, and voted for pudding less than 4 posts later.
His hop to MM-wagon was met with little resistance - he was able to completely avoid providing anything like an analysis switching votes to MM.
Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 11:56 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
im not going to share my thought process on one person. deal with it... You might not like how I'm gonna deal with it
Seriously? This could be used as a reason to switch to MM?
-nothing much for Nydus since he provides better reason than any of the people here for switching.
-Meatpudding is the most horrible of them all. He voted for Haru (me) just as an OMGUS vote, then switched to MM so that he could survive this day 1.
-Kotc cannot run from this either. His reasoning for a vote on MM can be used on metapudding as well - try it out again.
Overall, we should look out for Tolkien, Epishade, hobbitus, jabber, meatpudding and Kotc tomorrow. If their voting pattern persists, it will be more than enough evidence to scumread them.
In terms of how their scum-rating (by me) is affected,
scum %:
Jabber - 30%
meatpudding - 30%
Tolkien - 30%
Epishade - 20%
Kotc - 20%
hobbitus - 20%
Templar - 10% (weird votes...)
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On June 24 2014 02:15 GlowingBear wrote:
I think Haru is dangerous because he leads our reads. He ask questions to be answered and, therefore, changes the route of our reasoning. If he is scum, he has got us on his hands.
But I never saw any scum sign in his posts. I think he ask good questions that may help town. So, I think he is townie.
 please don't think of me this way
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On June 24 2014 03:33 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 03:32 The_Templar wrote:On June 24 2014 03:28 GlowingBear wrote:Hahaha I thought that just right after I posted. I hate not being able do edit now Did you ever edit before? Nope, I'm talking about the "no editing" policy 
I wanted to live past tonight. Don't increase my already high chance of getting mafia'ed tonight.
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On June 24 2014 03:48 Epishade wrote:@Haruhi You don't mention that any scum could have voted elsewhere, and you seem to be focusing primarily on those that voted for Meat while leaving out the others that voted for meatpudding (which includes yourself). Meat warranted my vote for his displaced logic, which I mentioned too in my justification. Honestly, I wasn't satisfied with a bunch of his responses to everybody afterwards either. I wouldn't put it past people to vote for him just because of how erratic his replies were. Meat wasn't helping his case very much when he started posting just a few hours before deadline. Honestly, I think the scum votes were likely split between meatpudding and Meat. I don't think scum would all vote on the same person the same day as that establishes a clear link between them (though you could argue wifom here). I'm surprised you don't bring up anything else regarding people that didn't vote for Meat. Even so, without knowing meatpudding's alignment either, a lot of this is baseless, especially considering how many people voted for Meat to begin with. Also, you seem to have left out Nydus on your list for having a good reasoning to vote Meat. You also listed him as from a previous wagon, but I wouldn't consider 2 votes on Cats, 1 even by Meat - who was starting to get trashed to be a wagon. Of course he had to get off there, as Cats had no reason to be voted (at least, from what I could tell) in the first place. That was why Meat got so much flak. There's no way Nydus was going to stick there. He wasn't abandoning any wagon there. Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 12:23 NydusHerMain wrote:
I don't think that TheKingOfCats is as scummy as I originally thought he was. I feel like MysteryMeat1 just sheeped my read on him and is actually scummier than I thought. I was pretty tired when I made those reads initially.
##Vote: MysteryMeat1 You don't think it's a little bit convenient that when everybody started voting for Meat he rescinded his read on Cats so he could vote for Meat as well? Maybe he actually did change his mind about Cats. Idk. I'm not saying it's bad logic that Nydus voted for Meat for sheeping, but I don't think it's any better than what anybody else voted for Meat for. That's not enough for me to discount him from being scum just yet.
It would be more probable that they split 2-1 or 2-2 or even 3-2/4-1 in favour of MM. There were more reason to jump to a MM wagon given how aggressive Tolkien was in pulling people to the MM wagon, while the meatpudding wagon had less draw. It would be better to jump to the MM wagon at all circumstances.
Yes, nydus is definitely not discounted from being scum. It is just that his voting pattern wasn't enough to lock him in as scum for now. his read on cats was based on
"I find it weird that TheKingOfCats' first reaction is to question Teemu on a supposed "null read" when I feel like MeatPudding saying that TheKingOfCats is trying to lynch him (pretty much saying that TheKingOfCats has a scum read on him) is a much scummier thing."
His vote on Kotc was quite reactionary IMO to how Kotc replied to Teemu. This could obviously change anytime he wants.
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EBWOP
Analysing MM wagon will lead to a higher chance to find scun over analysing meatpudding's - teemu did not change, I of course have no need to analyse myself and MM's votes is desperation vote. This only leaves GlowingBear in the 'questionable' list.
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On June 24 2014 04:13 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 04:12 GlowingBear wrote:On June 24 2014 03:34 HaruRH wrote:On June 24 2014 03:33 GlowingBear wrote:On June 24 2014 03:32 The_Templar wrote:On June 24 2014 03:28 GlowingBear wrote:Hahaha I thought that just right after I posted. I hate not being able do edit now Did you ever edit before? Nope, I'm talking about the "no editing" policy I wanted to live past tonight. Don't increase my already high chance of getting mafia'ed tonight. Hahaha I wouldn't worry if I were you. You have too many spotlights to be the first kill. Mafia will be roleblocked if they try to kill you. They will follow someone else. Umm… what? Doesn't roleblocking the mafia require targeting the right person? How would their choice influence whether they were roleblocked?
He probably meant jail on me tonight.
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Right, I'm off to sleep. Post any questions you have for me, including questions about my analysis. I'll try to be here by the deadline.
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I got roleblocked last night. Probably because of this.
On June 24 2014 03:19 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 03:04 HaruRH wrote:On June 24 2014 02:15 GlowingBear wrote:
I think Haru is dangerous because he leads our reads. He ask questions to be answered and, therefore, changes the route of our reasoning. If he is scum, he has got us on his hands.
But I never saw any scum sign in his posts. I think he ask good questions that may help town. So, I think he is townie. please don't think of me this way Haha don't worry, I have good feelings towards you. You sound greeny, even blueish to me. I just like to cover all possibilities. I'd be too naive if I didn't.
And no, haru is no woman. Haruhi is a girl in the anime, haruhi suzumiya. Thus epishade is going she she she.
I'll reply to all questions as soon as possible.
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On June 24 2014 23:08 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +First of all you're assuming that scum shot Tolkien, it's possible that scum got jailed/roleblocked and the vig shot Tolkien.
Tolkien being shot because be suspected the right people makes little sense but lets analyze it a bit. If me or meatpudding are scum it would be pointless to shoot him for suspecting us because half the game does, if either of us were to shoot him it wouldn't change anything for us and it would actually be detrimental for us to do that as scum because Tolkien was looking scummy to a lot of people too and he would've been one of the easier people to push for a mislynch. seeing as him, me and meatpudding were the main lynch candidates today we wouldn't kill one of our most valid chances to escape a lynch. Teemu, well this one's simple. If he was going to shoot someone for being "on" to him it would've been meatpudding because meatpudding's been on him more. Why would he shoot Tolkien over meatpudding? Why would he shoot either of them for that matter? They were both suspicious to a lot of people and he wasn't. As for Jabber...i dunno. He seems to be on a few peoples radars if i remember correctly, it would make more sense to shoot one of them for being "on" to him as opposed to one of the lynch candidates. It really doesn't make sense for scum to shoot him especially for the reason you posted. Personally i think the less likely situation of scum's NK being blocked and a Vig targeting Tolkien is more likely. Can you explain this to me? I'm already writing thoughts on Tokien's death, but I think even after reading guides I'm not understanding roles quite well. How does the Nightkiller gets blocked and Vig (what is a Vig?) still manage to have the kill?
In my opinion, there are 3 scenarios as to why Tolkien got shot.
1) Tolkien got shot by scum, as explained by glowingbear.
2) Tolkien got shot by vigilante. Vigilante is probably someone who thought Tolkien felt scummy and decided to shoot him. The mafia who decided to do the shoot action probably got jailed/roleblocked and couldn't shoot.
3) Tolkien got shot by vigilante. Mafia shot someone who they decided was too town to lynch (at this point, it should be templar or nydus since we don't know if they were affected by night actions yet) but got jailed, so they got protected from the shot.
in my opinion, its either option 1) or 3). But this could change depending on who got jailed on n1. If either templar or nydus got jailed, I'm pretty sure its 3). If neither got jailed, 1) is the most probable.
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EBWOP
Option 3) is when the the mafia target got jailed, and jailed players cannot be killed.
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EBWOP
1) is explained by kotc.
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Btw, it is best to announce if any night actions occured. Since scum knew them anyway (roleblock actions could be from them), and knowing jailed targets (if jailer exists) can help us consider more scum role options.
Currently, I believe we have a vigi and a scum roleblocker (I got roleblocked and I dont see why town would want to roleblock me).
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On June 25 2014 00:08 The_Templar wrote:I was jailed last night. Epishade's post seems to be coming under fire for ignoring some other possibilities that would require a very deceptive mafia. Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 23:24 GlowingBear wrote:On June 24 2014 14:35 Epishade wrote:
Ermm, I was really not expecting Token to get shot, of all people. I expected either myself, Haruhi, or Templar to die tbh, as we've all been townread for the majority of the game by most people. Token could have been a potential case if someone were to call him out, so I have a hard time rationalizing why mafia would shoot Token over someone more townie.
The only way I can see Token's shot being justified is if mafia thought he was on the right track and shot him to get rid of him, because objectively, that looked like a bad shot to me. You usually shoot people that have little chance of getting lynched for reading townie, but there seemed to be enough suspicion on Token (or at least, more than the three people I listed above) for me to think that that wasn't the reason he was shot.
There are a few people that Token scumreads over day 1, and I think that probably played a part in his death.
His scumreads:
JabberZerg (initially, then changed his mind to a townread at 4:00, which wouldn't have given mafia time to change their shot if JabberZerg wanted to keep Token alive for townreading him, assuming that Jabber is mafia)
meatpudding
Teemursu
Cats
His townreads:
Haruhi
Templar
me
Hobbit (only in his post at 4:00)
Fence reads:
Nydus
Dunno reads:
GlowBear
Other peoples
So I think the cases should probably be focused on people in his scum list at this point. I mean, he did say for people to look at me, GlowBear, and Nydus day 2 in his 4:02 post, but I'm not considering these specifically right now because they came too late to be able to influence mafia, and I'm only looking at the reasoning for shooting Token here over someone else.
He also asked me to post my reads on him, Cats, and meatpudding at this point, too, but I woke up too early today and am dead tired. I'll post my reads on everybody I have reads for sometime tomorrow after I wake up.
Night all. Your post strike me as odd. It's because the scenario you've brought isn't the only one possible. Possible scenarios are: 1) Tolkien was on the right track and asking the right questions, so it was better for Mafia to make him shut up. This is too simplistic, it would easily lead townies to lynch the right people. I don't think Mafia would do this. 2) Tolkien wasn't on the right track but being shot would lead town to misread other townies. This one seems more plausible to me. 3) My stupid mistake made them change their top townies change targets to someone who had more scumreads 4) Top townies are actually very good scums and they killed at random (I think this is too much) As I think (2) is more plausible, your post striked me as odd because you seem to push (1) as the only possible interpretation, leading townies to misreads and, therefore, to mislynchs. I'll keep an eye on you. I was going to reply something similar to this in response to Epishade's post. We can't assume that the mafia is trying to cover their tracks, as that doesn't cover half the possibilities. 1) If it's too simple, do you think 2 or 3 of JabberZerg, meatpudding, Teemursu, Cats are mafia? And where would you begin with that list? 2) This is, indeed, more likely, but again that doesn't lead us anywhere, except we can assume only one of those four, at most, are mafia. So if we lynch meatpudding and he flips red then it will be likely those other 3 are town. 3) I don't understand this one, can you clarify further? 4) Very unlikely, considering this is a newbie game. It's also possible that I was targeted by the mafia and Tolkien was killed by a vigilante. But that's somewhat unlikely as well.Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 21:49 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 24 2014 14:35 Epishade wrote:
Ermm, I was really not expecting Token to get shot, of all people. I expected either myself, Haruhi, or Templar to die tbh, as we've all been townread for the majority of the game by most people. Token could have been a potential case if someone were to call him out, so I have a hard time rationalizing why mafia would shoot Token over someone more townie.
The only way I can see Token's shot being justified is if mafia thought he was on the right track and shot him to get rid of him, because objectively, that looked like a bad shot to me. You usually shoot people that have little chance of getting lynched for reading townie, but there seemed to be enough suspicion on Token (or at least, more than the three people I listed above) for me to think that that wasn't the reason he was shot.
There are a few people that Token scumreads over day 1, and I think that probably played a part in his death.
His scumreads:
JabberZerg (initially, then changed his mind to a townread at 4:00, which wouldn't have given mafia time to change their shot if JabberZerg wanted to keep Token alive for townreading him, assuming that Jabber is mafia)
meatpudding
Teemursu
Cats
His townreads:
Haruhi
Templar
me
Hobbit (only in his post at 4:00)
Fence reads:
Nydus
Dunno reads:
GlowBear
Other peoples
So I think the cases should probably be focused on people in his scum list at this point. I mean, he did say for people to look at me, GlowBear, and Nydus day 2 in his 4:02 post, but I'm not considering these specifically right now because they came too late to be able to influence mafia, and I'm only looking at the reasoning for shooting Token here over someone else.
He also asked me to post my reads on him, Cats, and meatpudding at this point, too, but I woke up too early today and am dead tired. I'll post my reads on everybody I have reads for sometime tomorrow after I wake up.
Night all. First of all you're assuming that scum shot Tolkien, it's possible that scum got jailed/roleblocked and the vig shot Tolkien. Tolkien being shot because be suspected the right people makes little sense but lets analyze it a bit. If me or meatpudding are scum it would be pointless to shoot him for suspecting us because half the game does, if either of us were to shoot him it wouldn't change anything for us and it would actually be detrimental for us to do that as scum because Tolkien was looking scummy to a lot of people too and he would've been one of the easier people to push for a mislynch. seeing as him, me and meatpudding were the main lynch candidates today we wouldn't kill one of our most valid chances to escape a lynch. Teemu, well this one's simple. If he was going to shoot someone for being "on" to him it would've been meatpudding because meatpudding's been on him more. Why would he shoot Tolkien over meatpudding? Why would he shoot either of them for that matter? They were both suspicious to a lot of people and he wasn't. As for Jabber...i dunno. He seems to be on a few peoples radars if i remember correctly, it would make more sense to shoot one of them for being "on" to him as opposed to one of the lynch candidates. It really doesn't make sense for scum to shoot him especially for the reason you posted. Personally i think the less likely situation of scum's NK being blocked and a Vig targeting Tolkien is more likely. The bolded part is extremely good. A lot of people on that scum list were scummy to a lot of people, and would want to keep tolkien around to make sure he would get attention from his somewhat aggressive MM lynch (I thought this made him more townish to me at the end), which was scummy to a lot of people. So they have no reason to bother killing him. Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 22:12 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 24 2014 22:04 Teemursu wrote:
From an hour to three hours, generally. Day is from 15 to 30 minutes and night is maybe 5 minutes?
Could you instead post and reference my analysis on day 1?
I'll probably start reading and answering in about three hours. Thank you. That means you townreading Templar so quickly isn't scummy. I'll be looking through your and everyone else's filters a bit later (i started looking through your filter yesterday and that's what made me ask meatpudding all those questions). I just came in to check the thread after waking up, effort will be applied in...lets say 3-4 hours. I thought I said at the beginning that video mafia went pretty quickly and making reads this early was normal there. I'm still tired and will be reading more into these things later, but I am applying for a job this afternoon and won't have a ton of time like I usually do.
Now that we know you were jailed, it is more probable that tolkien got shot by a vigilante and you were the supposed scum target.
The lack of need for scum to shoot tolkien (shooting tolkien had no real use for scumteam) led me to believe a vigilante had to have shot tolkien.
As mentioned by epi, it is surprising that tolkien died instead of me/epi/nydus/templar, who were really townread on d1 and would be hard to mislynch on d2. Thus it is more probable that scum tried to kill templar but failed as he was jailed.
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On June 25 2014 00:53 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2014 00:49 The_Templar wrote:On June 25 2014 00:42 GlowingBear wrote:
I'll answer you soon, Templar. Before that:
are there any clues on mod posts? I highly doubt it, considering it was never mentioned. Saying Tolkien was devoided of salt instead that he has been shot sounded like a clue of what happened this night...
That's host WIFOM at this stage lol.
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On June 25 2014 01:38 GlowingBear wrote:Ok, I'm too anxious to wait for a response LOL. Show nested quote +On June 25 2014 00:08 The_Templar wrote:I was jailed last night. Epishade's post seems to be coming under fire for ignoring some other possibilities that would require a very deceptive mafia. On June 24 2014 23:24 GlowingBear wrote:On June 24 2014 14:35 Epishade wrote:
Ermm, I was really not expecting Token to get shot, of all people. I expected either myself, Haruhi, or Templar to die tbh, as we've all been townread for the majority of the game by most people. Token could have been a potential case if someone were to call him out, so I have a hard time rationalizing why mafia would shoot Token over someone more townie.
The only way I can see Token's shot being justified is if mafia thought he was on the right track and shot him to get rid of him, because objectively, that looked like a bad shot to me. You usually shoot people that have little chance of getting lynched for reading townie, but there seemed to be enough suspicion on Token (or at least, more than the three people I listed above) for me to think that that wasn't the reason he was shot.
There are a few people that Token scumreads over day 1, and I think that probably played a part in his death.
His scumreads:
JabberZerg (initially, then changed his mind to a townread at 4:00, which wouldn't have given mafia time to change their shot if JabberZerg wanted to keep Token alive for townreading him, assuming that Jabber is mafia)
meatpudding
Teemursu
Cats
His townreads:
Haruhi
Templar
me
Hobbit (only in his post at 4:00)
Fence reads:
Nydus
Dunno reads:
GlowBear
Other peoples
So I think the cases should probably be focused on people in his scum list at this point. I mean, he did say for people to look at me, GlowBear, and Nydus day 2 in his 4:02 post, but I'm not considering these specifically right now because they came too late to be able to influence mafia, and I'm only looking at the reasoning for shooting Token here over someone else.
He also asked me to post my reads on him, Cats, and meatpudding at this point, too, but I woke up too early today and am dead tired. I'll post my reads on everybody I have reads for sometime tomorrow after I wake up.
Night all. Your post strike me as odd. It's because the scenario you've brought isn't the only one possible. Possible scenarios are: 1) Tolkien was on the right track and asking the right questions, so it was better for Mafia to make him shut up. This is too simplistic, it would easily lead townies to lynch the right people. I don't think Mafia would do this. 2) Tolkien wasn't on the right track but being shot would lead town to misread other townies. This one seems more plausible to me. 3) My stupid mistake made them change their top townies change targets to someone who had more scumreads 4) Top townies are actually very good scums and they killed at random (I think this is too much) As I think (2) is more plausible, your post striked me as odd because you seem to push (1) as the only possible interpretation, leading townies to misreads and, therefore, to mislynchs. I'll keep an eye on you. I was going to reply something similar to this in response to Epishade's post. We can't assume that the mafia is trying to cover their tracks, as that doesn't cover half the possibilities. 1) If it's too simple, do you think 2 or 3 of JabberZerg, meatpudding, Teemursu, Cats are mafia? And where would you begin with that list? 2) This is, indeed, more likely, but again that doesn't lead us anywhere, except we can assume only one of those four, at most, are mafia. So if we lynch meatpudding and he flips red then it will be likely those other 3 are town. 3) I don't understand this one, can you clarify further? 4) Very unlikely, considering this is a newbie game. It's also possible that I was targeted by the mafia and Tolkien was killed by a vigilante. But that's somewhat unlikely as well. On June 24 2014 21:49 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 24 2014 14:35 Epishade wrote:
Ermm, I was really not expecting Token to get shot, of all people. I expected either myself, Haruhi, or Templar to die tbh, as we've all been townread for the majority of the game by most people. Token could have been a potential case if someone were to call him out, so I have a hard time rationalizing why mafia would shoot Token over someone more townie.
The only way I can see Token's shot being justified is if mafia thought he was on the right track and shot him to get rid of him, because objectively, that looked like a bad shot to me. You usually shoot people that have little chance of getting lynched for reading townie, but there seemed to be enough suspicion on Token (or at least, more than the three people I listed above) for me to think that that wasn't the reason he was shot.
There are a few people that Token scumreads over day 1, and I think that probably played a part in his death.
His scumreads:
JabberZerg (initially, then changed his mind to a townread at 4:00, which wouldn't have given mafia time to change their shot if JabberZerg wanted to keep Token alive for townreading him, assuming that Jabber is mafia)
meatpudding
Teemursu
Cats
His townreads:
Haruhi
Templar
me
Hobbit (only in his post at 4:00)
Fence reads:
Nydus
Dunno reads:
GlowBear
Other peoples
So I think the cases should probably be focused on people in his scum list at this point. I mean, he did say for people to look at me, GlowBear, and Nydus day 2 in his 4:02 post, but I'm not considering these specifically right now because they came too late to be able to influence mafia, and I'm only looking at the reasoning for shooting Token here over someone else.
He also asked me to post my reads on him, Cats, and meatpudding at this point, too, but I woke up too early today and am dead tired. I'll post my reads on everybody I have reads for sometime tomorrow after I wake up.
Night all. First of all you're assuming that scum shot Tolkien, it's possible that scum got jailed/roleblocked and the vig shot Tolkien. Tolkien being shot because be suspected the right people makes little sense but lets analyze it a bit. If me or meatpudding are scum it would be pointless to shoot him for suspecting us because half the game does, if either of us were to shoot him it wouldn't change anything for us and it would actually be detrimental for us to do that as scum because Tolkien was looking scummy to a lot of people too and he would've been one of the easier people to push for a mislynch. seeing as him, me and meatpudding were the main lynch candidates today we wouldn't kill one of our most valid chances to escape a lynch. Teemu, well this one's simple. If he was going to shoot someone for being "on" to him it would've been meatpudding because meatpudding's been on him more. Why would he shoot Tolkien over meatpudding? Why would he shoot either of them for that matter? They were both suspicious to a lot of people and he wasn't. As for Jabber...i dunno. He seems to be on a few peoples radars if i remember correctly, it would make more sense to shoot one of them for being "on" to him as opposed to one of the lynch candidates. It really doesn't make sense for scum to shoot him especially for the reason you posted. Personally i think the less likely situation of scum's NK being blocked and a Vig targeting Tolkien is more likely. The bolded part is extremely good. A lot of people on that scum list were scummy to a lot of people, and would want to keep tolkien around to make sure he would get attention from his somewhat aggressive MM lynch (I thought this made him more townish to me at the end), which was scummy to a lot of people. So they have no reason to bother killing him. On June 24 2014 22:12 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 24 2014 22:04 Teemursu wrote:
From an hour to three hours, generally. Day is from 15 to 30 minutes and night is maybe 5 minutes?
Could you instead post and reference my analysis on day 1?
I'll probably start reading and answering in about three hours. Thank you. That means you townreading Templar so quickly isn't scummy. I'll be looking through your and everyone else's filters a bit later (i started looking through your filter yesterday and that's what made me ask meatpudding all those questions). I just came in to check the thread after waking up, effort will be applied in...lets say 3-4 hours. I thought I said at the beginning that video mafia went pretty quickly and making reads this early was normal there. I'm still tired and will be reading more into these things later, but I am applying for a job this afternoon and won't have a ton of time like I usually do. Templar: 1) If it was really that simple, I'd say that Teemu and Jabber are Mafia because meatpudding and Kotc were considered scummy much more than those other two. If Mafia killed Lord Tolkien because he was getting closer to a right path than everybody it's because he scumread people that weren't scumread a lot by others. 2) I don't believe it's as simple as (1) and I think you have good logic here. My stronget read was in meatpudding since from the beginning. I'm just afraid he is contradicting himslef out of newbieness lol. 3) My logic isn't strong behind this scenario. I'd say that they were focusing the nightkill on one of the top townies (because they might be blue in Mafia's head) but when I reavealed my thoughts on Haru they changed their target to an unlikely person to avoid wasting a nightkill on someone who could probably be protected. Is it clearer now? I'm having a hard time explaining my thoughts XD 4) Well... I'm like Vizzini from Princess Bride haha The Vigilante scenario is possible but... god, it's so hard for it to happen, don't you think? Mafia got roleblocked and Vigilante shot the wrong person? Why not shooting meatpudding or kotc or other people that bandwagoned(?) MM1?
And there is a possibility that we may not even have a Vigilante on this game, right?And about Kotc, I'm getting better reads on him. He is sounding more like a townie to me, mostly because of his most recent posts. So, my scum radar is getting signals from two people now: meatpudding and epishade.
I'm still thinking about this, but I really think that mafia shot Templar, but Templar was defended by jail.
I probably got roleblocked since you said those stuff about me being blue.
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On June 25 2014 01:58 GlowingBear wrote:
Ok, let's stop talking about blues and moreover, what happened this night. If you start saying what happened night after night it will narrow alignments for Mafia.
It is important to at least know what happened this night so that we can choose the correct people to lynch. Here's an example:
If Tolkien got vigi'ed, one person who scumread him probably shot him.
If Tolkien got scum'ed, one person in his scumread probably did it. Or many other factors.
I don't like lynching people who could be blues. I need the definite answer to this shot.
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On June 25 2014 03:29 Epishade wrote:
I had a feeling I might get some flak for my post earlier, albeit, not in the way I expected.
People are saying that my post is a little scummy for leaving out other scenarios. I did make it before Templar said he was jailed, and also before Haruhi said she was roleblocked. I honestly just didn't even consider that mafia would miss a shot and instead the shot might be from vigi. I also didn't really expect mafia to shoot someone at random, as I don't really think they would shoot someone without putting any thought into it just to screw with us.
I did consider (but didn't include) mafia using wifom in their shot decision in my post, such that we'd think they shot Token for being on the right track, when instead they shot Token because he was on the wrong track and they wanted us to think he was right. But I really didn't think that was the case either. I don't really see that happening in a newbie game, where they might expect that some people might not have even theorized that Token was shot because he was on the right track.
You guys realize too, that if mafia did, in fact, miss their target and vigi shot Token, that either Templar or Haruhi would be scum then, right?
Explain. I don't see in any way, how would me or Templar be scum?
If scum misshot, it would obviously be on Templar.
So scum roleblocked me, another scum?
???
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EBWOP
Sorry if I sound defensive, but this is quite complicated and I'm quite confused. Everyone have their own version of how this night turned out and I cant really understand most.
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On June 25 2014 04:59 GlowingBear wrote:
Haru, what's your read on Epishade and meatpudding ATM?
Still the same. I still scumread meatpudding for his inconsistency and contradictions. I still read epishade as leaning town since he seems to be trying to solve the game.
However, if I take into the account the flips, meatpudding would fare better since it doesn't make sense for him to try for either tolkien or templar. Both aren't hot on his heels like me or teemu (it could be possible that I was meant to be shot but bear 'accidentally' called me out) and it will not help him in any case for d2, where either me or teemu might wagon on him.
Epishade would fare worse since killing templar could help him eliminate all the fringe voters, who aren't willing to commit and sheep his pushes
This is just wifom but definitely food for thought
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On June 25 2014 05:17 Teemursu wrote:
Why are we talking about WIFOMy scenarios on Tolkien's death and not looking at who and how MM1 was pressured/voted by?
Yes. I want to ask you about
1)what do you feel about MM's wagon and who are your suspects?
2) who do you scumread the most now?
3) how has your reads changed due to the d1 flips and n1 flips?
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EPT
