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Actually, I change my mind again...shit.
So Meat wasn't going to get lynched today. It's between Drav and dfs, either of which I have no problems lynching.
But I do think that Yellow's suspicion of Eden is the only reason that he doesn't want to vote drav, because he thinks Eden is scum pushing town in wrong direction. I've been hesitant about Eden all game, but I don't think there's enough to prove he's scum. Yellow seems fixated for sure that Eden's scum, just as Meat sees me as scum. It doesn't seem like a good enough reason for me not to vote drav, and I think Yellow is probably deflecting, especially when drav hadn't done anything this game to stand out.
I was hesitant about voting dfs anyways mainly because Meat suggested it, but they both seemed like scum to me anyways.
I'm gonna side with Eden here and vote drav instead. I think he makes a stronger case, and I don't think Yellow makes a good enough case against Eden to make it seem like Eden's pushing the wrong person.
##UNVOTE
##VOTE dravernor
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Ok, I've decided on my vote for now, and I don't see myself changing it. I'll have to see the results later tonight.
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On May 08 2014 10:32 mtamburini wrote:
Can i just shoot you for telling me what to do
I would not suggest doing that.
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On May 08 2014 10:45 mtamburini wrote:
I think shooting tonight to give us a ML tomorrow if I hit correctly might be the best idea. I would like everyone to build a case on why I shouldnt shoot them and 2 people I should shoot.
You're giving us HOMEWORK!?!
I'm doing a lot of digging here to figure out the game. My reads haven't always been the best, but I've retracted them whenever I admitted fault. I hope that's a good enough reason not to shoot me.
Here are my thoughts on the current situation though.
Eden really wants Yellow dead. I've looked up the interactions that Yellow and Drav have had so far and, from what I can tell, they don't look too well like mafia partners. I urge you to look through their filters too and come to your own conclusion. Yellow and Drav both have each other as suspicious, and Yellow also votes for Drav before switching his vote to Eden.
I think Yellow made a weak case to not vote for Drav just because he didn't like Eden, and it's being interpreted as him deflecting from his mafia partner. The only reason he didn't vote for Drav is because Eden voted for Drav and Yellow thinks that Eden is scum.
I don't think Yellow's suspicion on Eden is particularly warranted, but that's the reason he voted for dfs as I see it.
Apart from Yellow, there's Ahs, who I think is a better target.
I looked through the filter between Drav and Ahs and came up with some thoughts.
Ahs doesn't talk all that much about Drav in his filter. Every mention of Drav is either asking why Meat voted for her (Drav's a girl I guess?), and this:
On May 08 2014 01:44 ahswtini wrote:
Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online...
This is the only conversation that ahswtini attempts to initiate with Drav. I would think a mafia mistake is not having enough conversation with your partners, right? Since you know what your team is thinking, you don't really need to converse with each other to figure out their thought process. I think that's what happened here, is that ahswtini was attempting to talk a bit to Drav to add to the conversation between the two to make them seem less mafia-like.
Now, if you look at Drav's filter, and search through all the instances she mentions ahswtini, you can see that she's been kind of questioning his actions throughout the game, but still giving him a townread, except for one time where she lists him as scum in her reads for some reason idk.
It'd be a pain to go through and quote everything because Drav's posts are very long, so I'm just going to paste everything I can find about ahswtini that Drav mentions (in chronological order):
+ Show Spoiler +What does everyone think of ahswtini at the moment? I think he made some good points, but I also think he shouldn't have voted Meat because he wasn't around to defend himself or contribute. Sure he hasn't been a great contributer so far, but we need to give him a chance. Why was ahswtini so desperate to have him lynched day 1? I don't see him having anything to hide by voting Meat, that wouldn't make sense, right? -------------- I'm not sure what to think of tamb; ofc this is mostly because of what other people have already suspected of him - this hasn't changed, nor have my views on Epishade. ahswtini and MM1 have been laying it low this game, but I am not entirely convinced they're mafia. They may look suspicious but they haven't done enough to arouse my interest as possible mafia just yet. I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me. -------------- Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini -------------- I actually agree. I think Meat is town. I think dfs is town. I think bunnies might be town. I think tamb is town. I think Epishade is scum. I think Eden might be scum. I think ahs might be scum. I think Yell0w might be scum. -------------- ahswtini if you knew how long it took me to write my blogs you would know why it has taken me so long to post after getting home i don't really see what is so mafia about ahs (and myself either infact) - he hasn't been interacting a lot, sure, and he hasn't been putting pressure on anyone, but maybe he is busy too? I dunno, I only suspected him in the first place because a lot of you seemed to be making short cases against him, reading into them. But I'm still not entirely sure. 50:50. -------------- On May 08 2014 05:16 dravernor wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2014 05:11 ahswtini wrote:Ok I'm unvoting for now. On May 08 2014 05:02 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
i explained already ahs, on why i switched my vote to drav....
The way lynch system works is that both drav and I are tied at 3 votes, drav is going to come online vote for me in order to save herself, even though she thinks im town. Then if i switch my vote to drav, i'll still be the one getting lynched. Also ahs, if you believe that both dfs and i are devo scum as you posted earlier, then switch your vote to dfs... Its pretty clear that i'm not going to get lynched. Sorry I didn't notice you'd voted for drav, I just saw you place two town on that list. Again, Mafia were certain that mtamburini was going to shoot yellow tonight. They let it go through because it would have lost us the game immediately if it had actually gone through. If yellow was Mafia, I don't see why his buddies would just let him die. If, as Mafia I wanted to keep scum yellow alive, I would have blocked and killed mtamburini last night. That actually makes a lot of sense. Hmm.
Drav has that reply to Ahs at the end there (second to last post in the spoiler) based on what he was asking her from the above quote. This is their only interaction with each other and in it, Drav reaffirms his townieness.
I think Ahs is a better shot than Yellow.
Then, idk Meat I guess?
Try not to shoot Eden though.
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On May 09 2014 04:30 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
You also havent been very active and i think my reads are much stronger than yours
Your reads all revolve around me being scum. They're not good because I'm not scum. Take a look through drav's filter and see if I look like a viable mafia teammate. She scumreads me the whole game. Eden too.
In fact, she townreads you the whole game, even slightly pushing ahs when he casts suspicion on you. I'm starting to wonder if I made the right decision pushing ahs over you.
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Lol holy shit I just got home after moving out of my dorm and tamburini wasn't vigi rofl. My computer's not set up right now and I'm on phone but I did not see tamburini flipping regular townie. Then he asks us who he should shoot and make a case for them lol. That's actually hilarious that he claimed vigi without being one.
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Tamburini claims vigi at April 30, 21:53 (Day 1)
Amiko was shot dead on night one at May 02, 22:04 (Night 1)
Tamburini claims being roleblocked at May 02, 22:22 (Day 2) - Probably true
Bunny claims being roleblocked at May 04, 05:09 (Day 2) - Most likely true from Ritoky
Ritoky was shot dead on night two at May 05, 22:11 (Night 2) - we lose a town roleblocker
Meat claims being roleblocked at May 05, 23:35 (Day 3) - nobody else claims to be roleblocked.
Bunny claims being roleblocked once again at May 06, 01:06 (Day 3)
Tamburini says he didn't shoot voluntarily, likely as a way to not get Meat instalynched because he sees Meat as town. If Tamburini had claimed roleblock as vigi, Meat would have gotten lynched and then Tamburini next if Meat flipped town, losing us the game - May 06, 02:42 (Day 3)
Tamburini was shot dead on night three at May 08, 22:00 (Night 3)
Meat claims being roleblocked once again at May 09, 01:52 (Day 4)
So to sum up:
Day 2, we get 2 roleblock claims from Bunny and Tamburini.
Night 2, Ritoky dies and we lose a roleblocker.
Day 3, we get 2 roleblock claims from Bunny and Meat. Tamburini admits he wasn't roleblocked, and just chose not to shoot.
Day 4, we get another roleblock claim from Meat.
Am I doing something wrong here, or are we not supposed to have 2 roleblock claims on Day 3? Someone double check me here in case I got my times mixed up or something. If not, and I'm correct, then one of Meat or Bunny is scum I think.
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Oh wait, I think I didn't take into accoun. Ritoky's jailer still going through even if he dies. Then the two claims on day 3 do still make sense.
I guess you guys can scratch all that out. I can't deduce anything from the role block claims over the past few days.
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On May 10 2014 04:15 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
even though ritoky was killed his action still goes through. I was blocked by mafia, and bunnies was jailed by town.
Yea that's where I messed up.
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On May 10 2014 04:29 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Epishade, out of the three of us eden, you, me
only one of us is mafia.
dfs is guarenteed
ahs is pretty confirmed mafia
my biggest gut feeling, and i want to side with you more than i want to side with eden now... ugggg im soooo torn
I'm pretty sure Eden isn't mafia. Look through Drav's filter again and see if they look like scumbuddies. I've looked through a bunch when I posted about Ahs, and, though I wasn't looking particularly hard for eden, I believe she scum read him the whole game along with me. I'll take another look though but I'm pretty sure we're both town. I'll also take another look at interactions between Drav and Yellow. I believe Yellow is probable town as well because Drav also scumreads Yellow from what I remember.
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Ok, so I had another quick read through of Drav's filter and there are some more things that I'm noticing.
Not only is she townreading Meat the whole game, but also Dfs, despite both of them not really proving themselves as town. She defends Meat a little from Ahswtini's small push.
I looked through Dfs' filter and he has pretty much nothing to say about Drav. He mentions her a total of three times, and all times gives a pretty much null read.
At this point, I think Eden is town and Meat is possible town as well. I also believe Yellow could be town, but that's more of a gut feeling than anything. Yellow could still be scum, and Eden could be correct on him, but I'm not ready to vote Yellow now either.
Ahs I'm not entirely sure about now. I thought he was scum to begin with, mainly because of his lack of posting early game. He thinks Dfs and Meat are scum, but particularly Dfs.
I think Dfs is the best lynch at this point. I don't think Meat was attempting to bus him, either. If you look through Dfs' filter and ctrl+f for Meat, Yell0w, and Ahs, you can see he's been scumreading them all game.
His conflicting interactions with Yellow make me think they can't be scumpartners. He doesn't say much about Ahs, but still scumreads him on the basis that he hasn't been talking much. And same feelings towards Meat.
Nobody else do I really consider to be mafia right now other than him. I think Dfs is mafia at this point. Then, if Dfs flips scum, that clears Ahs for me, as well as Yellow and probably Meat too, as those guys have been his biggest scumreads all game so far. He's been in my potential mafia list the whole game too, and nothing has convinced me he's not so far.
##Vote: dfs
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Ok Meat, question.
If you fake claimed being roleblocked on day 4, why were there no other claims on people being roleblocked? I can't see any incentive for dfs not to roleblock someone, even anybody at random. Had he done so, you wouldn't have been able to claim being roleblocked.
What incentive would dfs have had not to roleblock someone, unless he were holding it back so you could claim being roleblocked, which I don't understand why he would do that unless you two were partners and this was a serious bussing attempt through you using your "analytical skills" to lynch dfs as a confirmed roleblocker when, in actuality, you knew he was roleblocker all along.
But then now you claim that you weren't actually being roleblocked and that you made the claim up, which means we're still missing a roleblock then from dfs. I have a hard time thinking you slipped as mafia when posting this fake roleblock claim as a way to figure out dfs was mafia, and forgot to take into account the missing roleblock.
Wtf.
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Argh, shit why do I always think of this shit right after I post. They could have roleblocked Tamburini, and that's why you're fake claim through them off.
Ok I get it now. Forget my above post.
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Holy shit, I used the wrong 'your' and 'threw'. I need to go back to school.
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On May 11 2014 14:16 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Epishade im soooo vanilla town it hurts
Same here, but you don't have to tell me.
Ok, so I'm going through Tamburini's filter quickly and figuring this out then.
Night 1, he said he was going to shoot Yellow. He was likely roleblocked here so that town would organize a mislynch against Yellow.
Night 2, he implies that he'll shoot Yellow. Meat and Bunny get roleblocked, but Tamburini doesn't.
Night 3, Tamburini asks who he should shoot.
I say we should shoot Ahs as the best shot. Then meat after that probably.
Eden says to shoot Yellow, but Ahs is also a reasonable shot.
Bunny suggests between Ahs, dfs, and Eden.
Ahs says to shoot dfs.
Yellow suggests Ahs and dfs.
Every single person had mentioned Ahs (except for himself obviously). dfs comes second, but Ahs has more against him than dfs at that point. I made a big case against him and Yellow made a smaller case against dfs, but I think Ahs was more likely than anyone to possibly get shot by Tamburini. Tamburini gets roleblocked, and I don't see why they would do that unless it were to protect Ahs.
I know I thought I had cleared Ahs before when we lynched dfs, but I think I gotta take that back. I'm thinking Ahs is the next lynch for us.
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I think you misunderstood me. Tamburini was asking everyone for who they'd advocate to shoot. That was when I posted about Ahs as being the best shot. Then I thought you would be the second best shot after Ahs.
"Night 3, Tamburini asks who he should shoot.
I say we should shoot Ahs as the best shot. Then meat after that probably."
- That's just me giving a breakdown of what I said about who Tamburini should shoot. Then I listed other people's thoughts on who to shoot after that. I'm not advocating you anymore though.
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##Vote: Ahs
Sorry if you're town Ahs. It's hard to pick any of the others at this point, they just feel more townie to me than you do.
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I've looked through Drav's and dfs' filters and just about every time Eden is mentioned, I see that they are either questioning his actions, or placing him in their scumlists. Eden's filter also has him putting Drav and dfs in his scumread pile just about every time he makes a read. Either he's a really independent mafia (I've never heard of mafia that don't directly work with their partners - like free-for-all lol), or he's probably town.
I've made a case on Ahs a couple pages back that I'll repost. Basically Drav townreads him for most of the game, with one post that for some reason she places him in his scumpile (maybe she realizes that she's been townreading him all game long and that might look bad for him if she were to get lynched, idk?)
I've since looked through dfs' filter since he got lynched. He doesn't say all that much about Ahs, but he kind of has the same writing stance that he takes with Ahs that he does with Drav - not much to say.
Here are all the times that dfs mentions Drav.
+ Show Spoiler +
ritoky, dravernor, ashwtini - can't say anything still. Too much other stuff to follow and they didn't really cought my attention yet.
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dravernor - finally explained his thoughs. Some stuff of what he says makes sense to me, but some stuff look weird. The fact that there is not my of anything else from him to look into doesn't help. Again, there are better targets right now.
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Yellow doesn't want to "waste" his vote on Eden (and the only suspicion he has on him is his "gut feeling") so he votes a dravernor who has the least interaction to anyone throughout the whole game, which makes him the easiest bw target right now (which is exactly what is happening as i see it). Then after Eden's post he immediately switches his vote back to Eden, because he calls you suspicios again. Suddenly not a waste of a vote anymore.
Still, the mafia who's hiding in plain sight is more dangerous, so:
##Vote: MysteryMeat1
Here are all the times that dfs mentions Ahs.
+ Show Spoiler +
I want to look at Epishade and ashwtini, but for now highest on my list are:
Yell0w, sqrt and Meat (mafia or sk) in no particular order.
I'll explain my thoughts on sqrt, Epishade and ashwtini later.
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ahswtini - not much to look at with his posts. The only people he talked about were Yell0w ("on the fence", he said he didn't like him being not serious and that's all he said), mtamburini (agreed with Epishade on his 3 mafia theory and pointed mtamburini specificly, but, like most people, changed the read to town after the vigi claim) and Meat (i shared the same concerns with ahswtini here). That's it. Almost nothing. Although his suspicious for Meat D1 i understand, but he voted even though Meat was banned and there were other, better suspects, in my opinion. The lack of reads on anyone else and an "outer" vote looks really bad for him.
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So, based on that, my list of highest suspects in descending order is:
Yell0w, sqrt, ahswtini, Meat and Epishade.
Here's my case on Ahs from before when Tamburini asked us who to shoot, after Drav had been lynched.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 08 2014 10:45 mtamburini wrote:
I think shooting tonight to give us a ML tomorrow if I hit correctly might be the best idea. I would like everyone to build a case on why I shouldnt shoot them and 2 people I should shoot. You're giving us HOMEWORK!?! I'm doing a lot of digging here to figure out the game. My reads haven't always been the best, but I've retracted them whenever I admitted fault. I hope that's a good enough reason not to shoot me. Here are my thoughts on the current situation though. Eden really wants Yellow dead. I've looked up the interactions that Yellow and Drav have had so far and, from what I can tell, they don't look too well like mafia partners. I urge you to look through their filters too and come to your own conclusion. Yellow and Drav both have each other as suspicious, and Yellow also votes for Drav before switching his vote to Eden. I think Yellow made a weak case to not vote for Drav just because he didn't like Eden, and it's being interpreted as him deflecting from his mafia partner. The only reason he didn't vote for Drav is because Eden voted for Drav and Yellow thinks that Eden is scum. I don't think Yellow's suspicion on Eden is particularly warranted, but that's the reason he voted for dfs as I see it. Apart from Yellow, there's Ahs, who I think is a better target. I looked through the filter between Drav and Ahs and came up with some thoughts. Ahs doesn't talk all that much about Drav in his filter. Every mention of Drav is either asking why Meat voted for her (Drav's a girl I guess?), and this: On May 08 2014 01:44 ahswtini wrote:
Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online... This is the only conversation that ahswtini attempts to initiate with Drav. I would think a mafia mistake is not having enough conversation with your partners, right? Since you know what your team is thinking, you don't really need to converse with each other to figure out their thought process. I think that's what happened here, is that ahswtini was attempting to talk a bit to Drav to add to the conversation between the two to make them seem less mafia-like. Now, if you look at Drav's filter, and search through all the instances she mentions ahswtini, you can see that she's been kind of questioning his actions throughout the game, but still giving him a townread, except for one time where she lists him as scum in her reads for some reason idk. It'd be a pain to go through and quote everything because Drav's posts are very long, so I'm just going to paste everything I can find about ahswtini that Drav mentions (in chronological order): + Show Spoiler +What does everyone think of ahswtini at the moment? I think he made some good points, but I also think he shouldn't have voted Meat because he wasn't around to defend himself or contribute. Sure he hasn't been a great contributer so far, but we need to give him a chance. Why was ahswtini so desperate to have him lynched day 1? I don't see him having anything to hide by voting Meat, that wouldn't make sense, right? -------------- I'm not sure what to think of tamb; ofc this is mostly because of what other people have already suspected of him - this hasn't changed, nor have my views on Epishade. ahswtini and MM1 have been laying it low this game, but I am not entirely convinced they're mafia. They may look suspicious but they haven't done enough to arouse my interest as possible mafia just yet. I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me. -------------- Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini -------------- I actually agree. I think Meat is town. I think dfs is town. I think bunnies might be town. I think tamb is town. I think Epishade is scum. I think Eden might be scum. I think ahs might be scum. I think Yell0w might be scum. -------------- ahswtini if you knew how long it took me to write my blogs you would know why it has taken me so long to post after getting home i don't really see what is so mafia about ahs (and myself either infact) - he hasn't been interacting a lot, sure, and he hasn't been putting pressure on anyone, but maybe he is busy too? I dunno, I only suspected him in the first place because a lot of you seemed to be making short cases against him, reading into them. But I'm still not entirely sure. 50:50. -------------- On May 08 2014 05:16 dravernor wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2014 05:11 ahswtini wrote:Ok I'm unvoting for now. On May 08 2014 05:02 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
i explained already ahs, on why i switched my vote to drav....
The way lynch system works is that both drav and I are tied at 3 votes, drav is going to come online vote for me in order to save herself, even though she thinks im town. Then if i switch my vote to drav, i'll still be the one getting lynched. Also ahs, if you believe that both dfs and i are devo scum as you posted earlier, then switch your vote to dfs... Its pretty clear that i'm not going to get lynched. Sorry I didn't notice you'd voted for drav, I just saw you place two town on that list. Again, Mafia were certain that mtamburini was going to shoot yellow tonight. They let it go through because it would have lost us the game immediately if it had actually gone through. If yellow was Mafia, I don't see why his buddies would just let him die. If, as Mafia I wanted to keep scum yellow alive, I would have blocked and killed mtamburini last night. That actually makes a lot of sense. Hmm. Drav has that reply to Ahs at the end there (second to last post in the spoiler) based on what he was asking her from the above quote. This is their only interaction with each other and in it, Drav reaffirms his townieness. I think Ahs is a better shot than Yellow. Then, idk Meat I guess? Try not to shoot Eden though.
Many of the lists that dfs and Drav place Ahs in are the same lists that they place each other in.
And, honestly, any one of you guys could be town to me. I feel that I'm making the best guess I can at this point. Out of anybody in here though, really. It was either Ahs, or you Bunny, as you've been consistently townread the entire game and are still alive, and that raises some concerns for me. You have your paranoias about me and Eden, I have mine about you. But I still think Ahs is a better pick over you right now, so he's getting my vote then.
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EPT
