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Unfortunately I seem to be the only one who wanted tambo out early :^)
So I guess that's out. The other thought is that sqrt's and Epishade's partner(s) is/are lying low in a relatively inactive town and not really pushing on anyone. That's going to be people who aren't really putting out any visible effort to figure out the game state much. Here I'm looking at:
- dravernor
- ahswtini
- mysterymeat1
- dfs
- Yell0w
Yell0w can be written off immediately given the push Epishade made to deflect from sqrt (see previous post about why Yell0w is town). ahswtini is also unlikely because I don't really think sqrt would bother pushing his teammate ahswtini. I could definitely see dravernor since Epishade went to so much trouble to point out his good and bad stuff and then settled on a lazy "null" read, looks to me like he's just trying to make sure he has ostensibly-meaningful interaction with his partner. dfs is kinda in the background some and mysterymeat made a point of telling us he'd post a lot more, then hasn't.
Right now I'd say scumteam is sqrt, Epishade, dravernor.
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On May 04 2014 15:05 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2014 14:51 mtamburini wrote:On May 04 2014 14:44 Eden1892 wrote:
Yeah, bunnies was obviously covered by the jailer imo. If she was townread by a lot of people then of course the jailer would target her to keep her from getting nightkilled. That's what I would have done as the jailer, either her or Amiko. I dont get it please explain I'm assuming the jailkeeper's roleblocking function is the same as a roleblocker's roleblocking function (that is, the target is notified regardless of her status as a power role or not). Let's look at all of the possible roleblocking functions. - mafia roleblocker (MRB) - town roleblocker (TRB) - town jailkeeper (TJK) There are therefore six possible role combinations: MRB/MRB MRB/TRB MRB/TJK TRB/TRB TRB/TJK TJK/TJK And nine possible explanations of what happened last night: #1: MRB/MRB targeted mtamburini/27ninjabunnies #2: MRB targeted tambo, TRB targeted bunnies #3: TRB targeted tambo, MRB targeted bunnies #4: MRB targeted tambo, TJK targeted bunnies #5: TJK targeted tambo, MRB targeted bunnies #6: TRB/TRB targeted tambo/bunnies #7: TRB targeted tambo, TJK targeted bunnies #8: TJK targeted tambo, TRB targeted bunnies #9: TJK/TJK targeted tambo/bunnies Anything involving the town roleblocker targeting bunnies is folly to me, as well as anything involving duplicate pairs. Just an intuitive guess on this one but I don't think there are duplicates of any of those roles. So that leaves #3, #4, #5, and #7. From there, I don't believe that a town-aligned role would roleblock mtamburini, because we were counting on mtamburini shooting Yell0w to confirm his killing-role claim. Therefore we're in scenario #2 and bunnies was jailed. Consequently this proves mtamburini was roleblocked by the mafia, which implies one of two things: 1) Yell0w is mafia and the mafia were protecting him from getting killed 2) Yell0w is town and the mafia were denying information about mtamburini while casting suspicion on Yell0w Next step is to look and see who was throwing suspicion on tambo and Yell0w today. We know sqrt and Epishade were throwing suspicion on Yell0w, I suspect any other mafia members would have been pressing on tambo.
Thanks for the summary, now what do you think happened is most likely
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On May 04 2014 15:21 mtamburini wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2014 15:05 Eden1892 wrote:On May 04 2014 14:51 mtamburini wrote:On May 04 2014 14:44 Eden1892 wrote:
Yeah, bunnies was obviously covered by the jailer imo. If she was townread by a lot of people then of course the jailer would target her to keep her from getting nightkilled. That's what I would have done as the jailer, either her or Amiko. I dont get it please explain I'm assuming the jailkeeper's roleblocking function is the same as a roleblocker's roleblocking function (that is, the target is notified regardless of her status as a power role or not). Let's look at all of the possible roleblocking functions. - mafia roleblocker (MRB) - town roleblocker (TRB) - town jailkeeper (TJK) There are therefore six possible role combinations: MRB/MRB MRB/TRB MRB/TJK TRB/TRB TRB/TJK TJK/TJK And nine possible explanations of what happened last night: #1: MRB/MRB targeted mtamburini/27ninjabunnies #2: MRB targeted tambo, TRB targeted bunnies #3: TRB targeted tambo, MRB targeted bunnies #4: MRB targeted tambo, TJK targeted bunnies #5: TJK targeted tambo, MRB targeted bunnies #6: TRB/TRB targeted tambo/bunnies #7: TRB targeted tambo, TJK targeted bunnies #8: TJK targeted tambo, TRB targeted bunnies #9: TJK/TJK targeted tambo/bunnies Anything involving the town roleblocker targeting bunnies is folly to me, as well as anything involving duplicate pairs. Just an intuitive guess on this one but I don't think there are duplicates of any of those roles. So that leaves #3, #4, #5, and #7. From there, I don't believe that a town-aligned role would roleblock mtamburini, because we were counting on mtamburini shooting Yell0w to confirm his killing-role claim. Therefore we're in scenario #2 and bunnies was jailed. Consequently this proves mtamburini was roleblocked by the mafia, which implies one of two things: 1) Yell0w is mafia and the mafia were protecting him from getting killed 2) Yell0w is town and the mafia were denying information about mtamburini while casting suspicion on Yell0w Next step is to look and see who was throwing suspicion on tambo and Yell0w today. We know sqrt and Epishade were throwing suspicion on Yell0w, I suspect any other mafia members would have been pressing on tambo. Thanks for the summary, now what do you think happened is most likely
His post says "Therefore we're in scenario #2 and bunnies was jailed."
But I think it meant to say scenario #4 if he meant jailed? Cuz isn't #2 roleblocked?
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Derp I skimmed the shit out of that post lol. You dont need to answer.
If you think mafia roleblocked me why not lynch yellow today and see what he flips?
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Like I said, we're in scenario #2. The mafia roleblocked you to set up Yell0w for an easy mislynch, which Epishade has all too eagerly pushed. sqrt is running more general misdirection, prodding random people for inactivity while not developing any strong cases to show why people are actually mafia and not just inactive, and dravernor is lurking while he can get away with it.
I'm feeling good enough about you to say that you're vigilante instead of serial killer. Now validate my read and tell me what your theory of what's happening is. You look like you're trying to figure it out, I want to know what you're thinking.
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Lol dammit, you're right ritoky I meant #4 not #2
As for why not Yell0w, because we're blatantly being set up to lynch him today. If there are 4 mafia (which isn't unreasonable with 13 people) then one more mislynch puts us at LYLO. I'm not wasting our possible only mislynch on information. We need to get scum.
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On May 04 2014 15:26 Eden1892 wrote:
Like I said, we're in scenario #2. The mafia roleblocked you to set up Yell0w for an easy mislynch, which Epishade has all too eagerly pushed. sqrt is running more general misdirection, prodding random people for inactivity while not developing any strong cases to show why people are actually mafia and not just inactive, and dravernor is lurking while he can get away with it.
I'm feeling good enough about you to say that you're vigilante instead of serial killer. Now validate my read and tell me what your theory of what's happening is. You look like you're trying to figure it out, I want to know what you're thinking.
I've got this really paranoid read that if we do not kill Yell0w today we should kill bunnies.
Here is why.
1) She pressured Yell0w in beginning and there was mixed emotions on it with a lot of people defending him and she retracted her vote on him. She said something like well whatever then I wont vote on him. She can easily take her vote off and seem towny for it, but also she can be mafia with yell0w and then pressure him a bit with some reasoning that I liked but a lot of people didnt. Im a little confused I think there is at least one between them.
Either bunnies is town and mafia defended Yell0w who is also mafia
OR
Trying to soft bus on Yell0w and see reactions from others and one of her partners steps in and defends Yell0w to gain some cred and distance themselves from bunnies.
OR
Yell0w is town Bunnies tried to get an easy ML on yell0w but no one was willing to go on it (but me afterwards) and her mafia partners distance away form her again.
2) It may be a stupid reason but she posted before she was drunk/tipsy then comes out the next day and says she got roleblocked. Why not say it in her first post? I mean OGI maybe but you do get notified when roleblocked so I dont think she does not check her inbox to see what message she got.
a) Shes mafia and didnt really care if she got roleblocked
b) Shes mafia and is faking she got roleblocked after reading whats happened.
Shes already said shes not a role so she is probably gonna skate by today because of that but its something that is stuck in the back of my head and it gives me nightmares
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Im going crazy right now I need to sleep on this.
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On May 04 2014 14:09 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Okay, I can talk finally! I'll read through the last few pages and give yall something to go off of.
So here's what we are looking at at the moment.
If tamburini got roleblocked, there are two roleblockers in this game, possibly town and mafia. I doubt they would put two mafia rbs or two town rbs.
Now, I say this for this reason, I got roleblocked last night. I am neither confirming or denying I am an actual role, I'll leave that up for mafia to decide.
However, if town roleblocker roleblocked me, you are an idiot.
If mafia roleblocked me, prepared to get wrecked.
Also, if town roleblocker blocked mtamburini, you still are an idiot.
If mafia roleblocked him, well, still prepare to get wrecked.
Now talk over this while I read over the last few pages.
@tamburini: To me the bolded part reads: "I am a role, but I don't want to say what", how do you read that as she is saying she is a role?
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I appreciate that you're trying and I buy that you're town at this point but I think you're just being paranoid about bunnies. Occam's Razor ==> she's town and was jailed. I can't see why a roleblocker would target her, she wasn't doing anything to indicate power role from what I saw. And she was nearly universally townread at the end of D1 I think so it makes more sense that the jailer would try to save her.
What do you think about killing sqrt, Epishade or dravernor? Especially sqrt.
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On May 04 2014 15:59 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2014 14:09 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Okay, I can talk finally! I'll read through the last few pages and give yall something to go off of.
So here's what we are looking at at the moment.
If tamburini got roleblocked, there are two roleblockers in this game, possibly town and mafia. I doubt they would put two mafia rbs or two town rbs.
Now, I say this for this reason, I got roleblocked last night. I am neither confirming or denying I am an actual role, I'll leave that up for mafia to decide.
However, if town roleblocker roleblocked me, you are an idiot.
If mafia roleblocked me, prepared to get wrecked.
Also, if town roleblocker blocked mtamburini, you still are an idiot.
If mafia roleblocked him, well, still prepare to get wrecked.
Now talk over this while I read over the last few pages. @tamburini: To me the bolded part reads: "I am a role, but I don't want to say what", how do you read that as she is saying she is a role?
Im tired and am skimming through posts and reading what my paranoia is telling me is real, i thought she said she was not a role so I was on the train of thought that she would be a safe lynch in my eyes based on what I think of her and Yell0w
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On May 04 2014 16:00 Eden1892 wrote:
I appreciate that you're trying and I buy that you're town at this point but I think you're just being paranoid about bunnies. Occam's Razor ==> she's town and was jailed. I can't see why a roleblocker would target her, she wasn't doing anything to indicate power role from what I saw. And she was nearly universally townread at the end of D1 I think so it makes more sense that the jailer would try to save her.
What do you think about killing sqrt, Epishade or dravernor? Especially sqrt.
Im so tunneled on getting information for my self that I dont care about anyone else tbh. When Yell0ws alignment is flipped I think we will have the best chance of winning
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On May 04 2014 16:33 mtamburini wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2014 16:00 Eden1892 wrote:
I appreciate that you're trying and I buy that you're town at this point but I think you're just being paranoid about bunnies. Occam's Razor ==> she's town and was jailed. I can't see why a roleblocker would target her, she wasn't doing anything to indicate power role from what I saw. And she was nearly universally townread at the end of D1 I think so it makes more sense that the jailer would try to save her.
What do you think about killing sqrt, Epishade or dravernor? Especially sqrt. Im so tunneled on getting information for my self that I dont care about anyone else tbh. When Yell0ws alignment is flipped I think we will have the best chance of winning
I will take a look into it in maybe 12 hours or so but its been crickets all day compared to yesterday. Did Akimo do a shit tonne of posts I havent looking at his filter.
Something I remember from sqrt is that he said he wanted to kill Yell0w but never voted on him in the early parts of the game where I was paying attention
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Alright, are you seriously getting paranoid on me now?!
Come on, get real.
So I do admit, I haven't been posting as much today due to just leaving my campus, and I'm headed home tomorrow So I'll definitely be able to post more.
And lynching me because I went on yell0w, got pretty GREAT reads, enough too possibly get roleblocked by mafia.
COME ON TAMBURINI!
GET REAL.
Anyway, my point is, I didn't think to check my pms because I thought I'd either die in the night, or someone would come out the next day and push on me to make meseem scummy...
If I was mafia, I'd do a WAY better play than this, and I wouldn't have been defending you tamburini, if you are actual vigi. You can read me pretty well, and I'd try to get you out of the game asap.
I came out with the roleblock claim as soon as I realized I was blocked. And I did it for the reason that tamburini had also claimed he was roleblocked. THIS IS INFORMATION TOWN NEEDS. Because I didn't realize the actual role of the jailer, I didn't know it could be a possible jailer scenerio on me, and for that I am sorry. But if there are 2 roleblockers, 1 for mafia, 1 for town, this is information we could use to our advantage.
So, from just my claim we already know one thing, that is if tamburini is truly vig, and was roleblocked.
One scenerio is that if tamburini IS vigi, and he was roleblocked, and I was roleblocked, too,(which I was) that means I cannot be a roleblocker. So you have that information, now run wild with it.
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bunnies: What is your opinion on my case on sqrt and Epishade?
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If there's no CC on what bunnies just claimed to be in the next 12 hrs, I am just going to assume it's 100% true.
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On May 04 2014 17:07 Eden1892 wrote:
bunnies: What is your opinion on my case on sqrt and Epishade?
Ummmm, let me read up on that and get back to you.
I'm at a friends' house, so I'm just checking in.
Hopefully I'll have one big post for all of you tomorrow.
Also, someone CC me, I dare you.
Watch me wreck you into the ground.
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Vote (slave) count:
mtamburini (0): Eden1892
Yell0w (2): Epishade, mtamburini
sqrtofneg1 (2): ritoky, Eden1892
ahswtini (1): sqrtofneg1
Not voting (6): Yell0w, dfs, MysteryMeat1, 27ninjabunnies, dravernor, ahswtini
Currently, sqrtofneg1 is set to be lynched.
Deadline is Sunday, May 04 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ).
Voting is mandatory!
+ Show Spoiler [Vote counter log] +VOTE: Eden1892 voted mtamburini ( post) VOTE: sqrtofneg1 voted ahswtini ( post) VOTE: ritoky voted sqrtofneg1 ( post) VOTE: Eden1892 unvoted mtamburini ( post) VOTE: Eden1892 voted sqrtofneg1 ( post) VOTE: Epishade voted Yell0w ( post) VOTE: mtamburini voted Yell0w ( post)
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On May 04 2014 17:11 27ninjabunnies wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2014 17:07 Eden1892 wrote:
bunnies: What is your opinion on my case on sqrt and Epishade? Ummmm, let me read up on that and get back to you. I'm at a friends' house, so I'm just checking in. Hopefully I'll have one big post for all of you tomorrow. Also, someone CC me, I dare you. Watch me wreck you into the ground.
should probably read mine too 
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On May 04 2014 17:08 ritoky wrote:
If there's no CC on what bunnies just claimed to be in the next 12 hrs, I am just going to assume it's 100% true.
what the hell does that mean what can u possibly cc
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EPT
