EPT[S] Shadowed Mini Mafia: The Reboot - Page 6
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 09 2014 05:45 suki wrote: I dont oppose this lynch, I just provided this because Balla asked for it. I tried to be unbiased in my conclusions, looking at Jonny's actions from both a scum and town viewpoint. I think a short-on-time scum Jonny can play a game exactly like this. But I also think a short-on-time town Jonny can also play a game like this. and I don't oppose a straight up oppose a jayB lynch. We're arguing over nothing really, it's not like either of us see our targets as town. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 09 2014 06:17 Koshi wrote: I feel it can come from town knowing he was under a shitton of pressure last game and it wasn't looking better this game. As scum it is pretty ballsy. I'm on suki's side here. I think his claim was scummy. Like I said before, no reason to do it, looked like he wanted to take credit for "claiming" it earlier when he might have actually got lynched. That's the only reasonable scenario I see for it. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 08 2014 11:22 jaybrundage wrote: Guys I don't wanna go thru this again we shouldn't be trying to lynch me. I'm a true-blue townie. I'm sorry but it was pretty clearly intended to be a claim. He ignored when I asked about it and then says this. On February 08 2014 13:13 jaybrundage wrote: Suki I'll make this clear I'm not getting lyncyhed. So move on. If that's not saying: I'm going to claim if I even get close to being lynched. Then I don't know what it is. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Coagagaslam, Oatsmaster, Hopeless1der. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Recall: On February 08 2014 09:39 jaybrundage wrote: Well doesn't look like your on the menu. Sooooooooooooo perhaps start up the barbie and roast some alakaslam tonite This was before that post. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 09 2014 06:51 jaybrundage wrote: Balla what do you think of Coag's entrance to the thread. I think he could be scum. From what I understand about this badge people were talking about. Its some tell that he posts to show that hes town. His hesitation to do so is interesting. Also the fact that if this third sub out turns out too be scum that would be pretty lulz. I find it interesting that scum have more of an obligation to there teammates so they feel more inclined to sub out if they aren't posting to a certain standard. Also its interesting Alakaslam said he probably wouldn't be subbing out and then did. I am on the fence on Suki. This post talking about me and jonny was really bad. However the post where she goes in-depth on jonny was pretty good. She put alot of work into it and looks like she actually try to reason it out. I won't go talk about her read on me because shes not being logical in that respect. Did you not read what I said? I will not use the badge to read coag at ALL. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
In this game, every player has a 72% chance to roll town and a 28% chance to roll mafia. To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 3 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(town% game3) *P(mafia) = P(of a TTTM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 2 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia) = P(of a TTMM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 1 times out of 3: P(town%game1) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia% game2) * P(mafia) = P(of a TMMM situation) And so on and so forth. If you have rolled mafia at ALL then the chances of any situation goes down significantly. Note: that these are all independent events and in reality your chances of rolling mafia are completely independent of your previous games, therefore this is all bullshit anyways, but its fun! Also, fuck you jonny!!! Just saying. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 09 2014 06:28 Toadesstern wrote: Votecount: JonnyLaw ( 8 ) : suki ( 1 ) : Koshi ( 1 ) : jaybrundage ( 1 ) : Balla24 ( 0 ) : Aquanim ( 0 ) : Coagulation ( 0 ) : Sidesprang ( 0 ) : Everyone has voted, noone to be modkilled as of now, good kids! With 8 votes JonnyLaw is set to be lynched Deadline on Saturday, Feb 08 9:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00). You have left to vote! if you happen to find any mistakes in the above, please inform us/me about it immediatly, thanks. With 8 votes, it's highly likely that there is at least one scum on that bandwagon, because the other 2 people off the vote are suki and jaybrundage and I find it very unlikely that they are both scum. There was plenty of opportunity to bus, and it should have happened when they realized Jonny was not going to be able to get back in the game. From here, we should look at the reasoning that people had to be where they are. There are some people in that list of votes on Jonnylaw who do did not provide good reasoning for being there, that would be the following: Oatsmaster, Hopeless1der, Coagulation. They just tagged along for the ride. I consider this sketchy. @Coagulation, I asked you to provide reasoning for your vote on Jonnylaw and you just said placeholder. What did your read through of the thread lead to? Out of suki and jaybrundage, the 2 non-JL voters, Suki provided good reasoning for following through with her jaybrundage lynch. Whereas jaybrundage did not provide good reasoning whatsoever. @Jaybrundage, why did you leave your vote on suki? This looks really bad considering you never had a real good case on her AND you asked me about coagagulaslam before the end as if you thought that he was scummy but never voted on them. Your vote was useless this cycle. You didn't push anything. Please explain. There's not much else to say about this vote from what I can tell unfortunately. People who provided reasoning for being on the Jonnylaw lynch obviously look better, Koshi, Aquanim, Sidesprang, Lonemeow. We have a resolution period. There should be no talk of the night kills until then or night actions until then. Just talk about your reads. Night action talk gets way too wifomy. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 09 2014 08:56 Koshi wrote: It doesn't hurt anybody. And I think jayB is doc and he will get RB so who cares really. And here is exactly what I wanted to avoid. Just cause you're town doesn't mean you shouldn't think about what you are doing. Jesus dude. No more. PLEASE. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Here is his case on Koshi on his return to the thread: + Show Spoiler + On February 08 2014 17:46 JonnyLaw wrote: koshi is our scum #1 in this game. Sheeping Balla off the start. I pointed out that Jay did this last game and it bought Jay a lot of town points in balla's mind. Excuses. Excuses. Fucking Excuses. Why can no one call him scum and where is the posting like a madman? I hate this entire series of posts. Anyone who's not joking around is scum? Get the fuck outta here. Uhh where's the scum hunting? And another post threatening the power of town koshi. Unleash it already. This reminds Koshi of his "off feelings' about town jayb last game? I don't understand. Seriously this is getting worse and worse for me. I'll do the rest tomorrow. ##vote Koshi I'm around for a few minutes to chat. At this point in the game, there are a few lynch candidates. Alakaslam, Jonny, JayB and possibly Koshi. Out of these 3 for jonny, I believe that Alakaslam would have been the easiest to push. Koshi was reading town or just null to a bunch of people. So why does he decide to push for Koshi instead of for Alakaslam, or maybe even JayB who both already had a case or two on them and there was plenty of material to pick at. I see 3 options: 1) Alakaslam and/or Jayb are his scummates and thus he does not want to push them, so he pushes another target. 2) He did not want to push either of those two because he would have been criticized for easy pickings and an easy lynch. 3) Koshi is his scummate, jonny knows he's going to get lynched so he tries to make Koshi look as best as possible before that happens. Let's examine them: 1) holds credence mostly for Slam because Jonny never mentions Slam one bit except for this post, where he calls him scum, but doesn't push him. On February 08 2014 17:49 JonnyLaw wrote: Uhh I called you scum? that's about it. No but I'm still not convinced. I don't have any clear town votes yet. koshi, slam and lm for scum. koshi for content and lm slam for lurking. rest neutral. i'm bad at finding town. i can find scum though. If he thinks he's scum, then wouldn't Slam be a MUCH better target to try to deflect off of? On the other end of things. Alakaslam never got to mention jonny a single time before he replaced out, and his replacement Coag did not do much better. Although he did mention something that I think Jonny did, but he said Jay for some reason, can't really verify that though. For Jaybrundage, there's some connection in the early game, where Jonny says he thinks what he's done is scummy, but then doesn't really thinks he's scum. But they reacted much in the same way as each other during that early game, which I don't think two scummates would do that. And they talked about each other a LOT early on, which again, scummates tend to try to avoid on day1 if they can help it. 2) could be a possibility, but there were a variety of cases on alakaslam at that point (mine included), so I think it would have been worth it to try to push it and try to people to wagon onto alakaslam instead of him. Honestly I think that would have been one of his few chances to survive. 3) This is another good possibility with how fake some of the jonny-> koshi interactions look. However, if this were to be the case. I believe Jonny would have had less of a motivation to post more, and it would have made more sense if he just straight up disappeared completely but he actually looked like he had the intention to try to get koshi lynched. On the other side of this, we have Koshi calling him scum from literally the getgo of this game. I'm pretty sure Koshi put his vote on Jonny within like 2 hours of the game starting and left it there the entire day. That's pretty crazy for scummates, so I think this option is completely out the window for the most part. All these options are things I will be considering though, and I highly believe that #1 is the situation that occured. | ||
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