EPTOn January 22 2014 08:59 Cephiro wrote:
Mig is scum.
Koshi is town.
Hope is town.
Vayne is town.
2 remaining scum are in Oats/rayn/skan/Sn0
Rayn is the least likely of those, I believe him to be more likely town.
Mig is scum.
Koshi is town.
Hope is town.
Vayne is town.
2 remaining scum are in Oats/rayn/skan/Sn0
Rayn is the least likely of those, I believe him to be more likely town.
makes a post that he is the SK 10 minutes before deadline
On January 22 2014 11:17 Cephiro wrote:
As for my claim.. these are the 1% situations (Scum believes SK still exists, which was a possibility if SK had hit medic protection or vet, or become roleblocked):
1) They take my claim seriously
--> 1a) [We now know Mig is town] -> They shoot anyone but Me, Mig, or their own team and win. Optimal play.
--> 1b) [If Mig had been scum] -> Roleblock Cephiro -> Avoids their team member being shot, causes a 3-1-3 mafia win if their shot goes through on a townie. This scenario no shot on Hope (vet claim).
If Vayne was a real rb, would have been the most likely target. Optimal play.
2) They do not believe my claim -> I have to be a fakeclaiming town.
--> Optimal play to shoot Cephiro. SK would not shoot someone fakeclaiming to be them in this situation.
---> Guaranteed to hit another target than the SK = Instant win if SK does not hit scum.
As you can see, in the different scenarios if the SK had existed, after my claim most of the optimal plays for scum consist of wasting an action on me.
I am a VT, and a wasted action on me would have been a good thing for town. (Real SK would have lived, possible remaining town powerroles would have lived.)
Then there are the 99% situations where scum goes with Occam's Razor, no SK in game.
1) They know my claim is fake
With information that we NOW have:
Scum has a vigilante.
There is no reason why town vigilante should not have claimed their action before N2 resolution period at latest.
Since there is no SK, this is the only possibility.
This means that scum also knew there is no SK.
The only exception for this would have been if the SK had shot a veteran, or a player under medic protection.
It is very reasonable for scum to assume no SK after N1 results.
--> This means scum knew my claim to be fake. They also know me to be town.
There is absolutely no reason to shoot a player people are already uncertain of.
How does an fake SK claim make from a town perspective?
Logical conclusion: It doesn't.
--> Absolutely no reason to NK Cephiro as town, if anything he looks like a likely mislynch after this.
Spicing it up: Whom of the remaining targets could they shoot to cause a most likely mislynch on D3?
Let's go through all assumptions as town. I tried to look at these from an unknown scumteam perspective.
Note that if any of these players is scum, they obviously would shoot their own, so it's not a possibility worth analysing.
Mig [Town]: Makes Cephiro look even worse. *Good shot*
Hope [Town]: Veteran claim, no reason to risk it and take a shot. *Bad shot*
Vayne [Town]: Roleblocking the same person again is a bad play, it would essentially confirm as town.
Unless try to force a mislynch with the scum rb's their own WIFOM. *Good shot*
Skan/Sno [Town]: Easy mislynch targets, both not very active and have been pressured before. *Bad shots*
Koshi/rayn [Town]: Both players that are considered fairly town. Would require a lot of effort to push for mislynch. *Good shots*
Mig ended up shot. A good play.
Why Mig over other good shots? There are a few conditions that raise the Mig shot value.
1) Other good shots are actually scum players.
2) Other good shots are not on track of real scum.
3) Maximize one target for mislynch.
We know for sure that 3) is true.
Now let's think about it.. why was Koshi/Rayn/Vayne not shot?
Remember that there are also no roleblock claims for D3 yet, which means the mafia probably withheld it for maximum wifom.
Vayne: Looks definitely worst, a previously claimed roleblock, and is still alive.
Koshi/Rayn: Koshi has not been very active, and rayn has been on wrong tracks fairly well so far.
If the choices for good shots were all town, scumteam would be Skan/Sno/Hope.
This is very unlikely however, and it is more likely at least one of the good shots did not get done because there is scum in there.
Vayne is the person I am most surprised of. Given the earlier roleblock, it would have made sense to shoot him if he was town.
Since they shot Mig, it is clear that I am their mislynch target of the day. They hardly could push a mislynch on a roleblocked townie,
counting on the wifom. Thus in my opinion it is very likely that Vayne is mafia.
1) Why would I fakeclaim SK as scum, knowing the situation I am about to claim is impossible.
2) Why would I do this without telling my teammates what I am about to do?
3) Why would they let me carry on with a horrible fakeclaim when I was in no danger of being lynched?
Any remaining town players will know I am town after reading this post. This is a free +1 confirmed townie for you remaining townies out there.
Now you have an easier time of deciding today's lynch when I am outruled as an option.
I also give you an extremely likely mafia in Vayne.
There is absolutely no townie that should be pushing for me after reading this post, which means you can consider anyone wanting to lynch me after this post to be scum.
As for my claim.. these are the 1% situations (Scum believes SK still exists, which was a possibility if SK had hit medic protection or vet, or become roleblocked):
1) They take my claim seriously
--> 1a) [We now know Mig is town] -> They shoot anyone but Me, Mig, or their own team and win. Optimal play.
--> 1b) [If Mig had been scum] -> Roleblock Cephiro -> Avoids their team member being shot, causes a 3-1-3 mafia win if their shot goes through on a townie. This scenario no shot on Hope (vet claim).
If Vayne was a real rb, would have been the most likely target. Optimal play.
2) They do not believe my claim -> I have to be a fakeclaiming town.
--> Optimal play to shoot Cephiro. SK would not shoot someone fakeclaiming to be them in this situation.
---> Guaranteed to hit another target than the SK = Instant win if SK does not hit scum.
As you can see, in the different scenarios if the SK had existed, after my claim most of the optimal plays for scum consist of wasting an action on me.
I am a VT, and a wasted action on me would have been a good thing for town. (Real SK would have lived, possible remaining town powerroles would have lived.)
Then there are the 99% situations where scum goes with Occam's Razor, no SK in game.
1) They know my claim is fake
With information that we NOW have:
Scum has a vigilante.
There is no reason why town vigilante should not have claimed their action before N2 resolution period at latest.
Since there is no SK, this is the only possibility.
This means that scum also knew there is no SK.
The only exception for this would have been if the SK had shot a veteran, or a player under medic protection.
It is very reasonable for scum to assume no SK after N1 results.
--> This means scum knew my claim to be fake. They also know me to be town.
There is absolutely no reason to shoot a player people are already uncertain of.
How does an fake SK claim make from a town perspective?
Logical conclusion: It doesn't.
--> Absolutely no reason to NK Cephiro as town, if anything he looks like a likely mislynch after this.
Spicing it up: Whom of the remaining targets could they shoot to cause a most likely mislynch on D3?
Let's go through all assumptions as town. I tried to look at these from an unknown scumteam perspective.
Note that if any of these players is scum, they obviously would shoot their own, so it's not a possibility worth analysing.
Mig [Town]: Makes Cephiro look even worse. *Good shot*
Hope [Town]: Veteran claim, no reason to risk it and take a shot. *Bad shot*
Vayne [Town]: Roleblocking the same person again is a bad play, it would essentially confirm as town.
Unless try to force a mislynch with the scum rb's their own WIFOM. *Good shot*
Skan/Sno [Town]: Easy mislynch targets, both not very active and have been pressured before. *Bad shots*
Koshi/rayn [Town]: Both players that are considered fairly town. Would require a lot of effort to push for mislynch. *Good shots*
Mig ended up shot. A good play.
Why Mig over other good shots? There are a few conditions that raise the Mig shot value.
1) Other good shots are actually scum players.
2) Other good shots are not on track of real scum.
3) Maximize one target for mislynch.
We know for sure that 3) is true.
Now let's think about it.. why was Koshi/Rayn/Vayne not shot?
Remember that there are also no roleblock claims for D3 yet, which means the mafia probably withheld it for maximum wifom.
Vayne: Looks definitely worst, a previously claimed roleblock, and is still alive.
Koshi/Rayn: Koshi has not been very active, and rayn has been on wrong tracks fairly well so far.
If the choices for good shots were all town, scumteam would be Skan/Sno/Hope.
This is very unlikely however, and it is more likely at least one of the good shots did not get done because there is scum in there.
Vayne is the person I am most surprised of. Given the earlier roleblock, it would have made sense to shoot him if he was town.
Since they shot Mig, it is clear that I am their mislynch target of the day. They hardly could push a mislynch on a roleblocked townie,
counting on the wifom. Thus in my opinion it is very likely that Vayne is mafia.
1) Why would I fakeclaim SK as scum, knowing the situation I am about to claim is impossible.
2) Why would I do this without telling my teammates what I am about to do?
3) Why would they let me carry on with a horrible fakeclaim when I was in no danger of being lynched?
Any remaining town players will know I am town after reading this post. This is a free +1 confirmed townie for you remaining townies out there.
Now you have an easier time of deciding today's lynch when I am outruled as an option.
I also give you an extremely likely mafia in Vayne.
There is absolutely no townie that should be pushing for me after reading this post, which means you can consider anyone wanting to lynch me after this post to be scum.
somehow arrives at this based on pure speculation of night actions. He is just making this up as he goes along and rayn has play to his town meta and call him a retard because it is retarded. Then they talk in scum qt and realize if rayn just comes in and backs up the argument that they can easily just win right here. That is why he says it is fucking stupid to begin with then comes back into the thread thinking it makes perfect sense.
