EPTI think Tamburini prob would have given more info than odin tbh.
But whatevs.
Golden Sun: The Lost Age Mafia Djinn Edition - Page 134
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
I think Tamburini prob would have given more info than odin tbh. But whatevs. | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Actually yes I will. If you are somehow town I'd advise you to do as much work as you can to ensure that scum shoot you tonight. what do they need more reason than the fact that I'm Isaac? Apparently also Slam has some kind of role that confirms me, so I'm even more likely to be shot In any case, even if I'm not shot I'm like super popular and well-liked by everyone because i'm so good-looking and charismatic, so I'm not too worried | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:55 27ninjabunnies wrote: Hey would you look at that flip. I think Tamburini prob would have given more info than odin tbh. But whatevs. "I think tamb would have flipped scum" is the only real objection you could make, because that's the only thing that matters, but ALSO take a look at all that voting activity in the last 3-4 hours of the day. Tons of info | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
| ||
|
mtamburini
Canada506 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:40 OnceKing wrote: small wagons: valenius (2) - kita, sqrt yell0w (1) - poof bunnies (1) - cephiro hf (1) - wos layabout (1) - ritoky poof (1) - tambo tambo literally had a pointless throwaway vote, i'd be glad to see him die kita wanted a lynch on blueyd but his vote is on valenius (?). didn't say much about odin, explain this? sqrt brushed aside the case on odin saying that he thought odin was vt, didn't say much otherwise. poof, cephiro, wos, ritoky afk (though wave and ritoky said they were gonna sleep so i don't draw much adverse inference from that) pedit: saw sqrt's list of late switchers kush changed before bh's case xatalos thru hf changed after bh's case hapa changed after making this post even though valenius didn't really post anything worthwhile everyone else basically sheeped BH's case (i mean it was good) post flip definitely dislike tambo more as well as one of valenius/hapa (moreso valenius atm) and afk people (poof, cephiro) dont know how i feel about kita or any of the people who sheeped gonna head out for a bit when i get back i'll be rereading Was not sure if there was an option to NL or not so I threw my vote. Read into that as you want. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 23 2014 06:01 mtamburini wrote: Was not sure if there was an option to NL or not so I threw my vote. Read into that as you want. 1. look into wagons, make vote 2. play lol, throw vote hmmmm. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 23 2014 06:01 austinmcc wrote: hapahapa? Not really in the frame of mind, would have to look at hapa's posts etc to try and reference it. It was ages ago now but Duel Mafia (it wasn't called that, can't remember the name) by HiroPro was the last time I remember playing with Hapa mafia, and the summary I made near the end of my filter (i died N0) were the reasons I found him scummy if you want to search it out. It's not that illuminating iirc though, kinda "feels" | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 23 2014 06:04 marvellosity wrote: No, that's fine for now. If you've got something posted there or elsewhere that you know of I can hunt it down.Not really in the frame of mind, would have to look at hapa's posts etc to try and reference it. It was ages ago now but Duel Mafia (it wasn't called that, can't remember the name) by HiroPro was the last time I remember playing with Hapa mafia, and the summary I made near the end of my filter (i died N0) were the reasons I found him scummy if you want to search it out. It's not that illuminating iirc though, kinda "feels" I've played with hapa but have no meta stuff, and just want to peruse. May pester you later about specifics. | ||
|
mtamburini
Canada506 Posts
The limitations for that faction are endless, I was thinking about it while I was at work. What if a win condition was something along the lines of protecting certain players? This could make them look really bad if that person ends up getting lynched and flip scum by assosiation. Another thing I was thinking about is possible 3rd party win conditions. Correctly lynching/shooting someone from each faction. Or something like killing off an entire faction (town or mafia) Just something to think about when doing the analysis as this is not a "normal" game | ||
|
kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:52 Holyflare wrote: i'm not sure that's true looks like irl was calling but as scum he could do nothing and be fine. he even said how easy it would be to be scum this game. So if he's scum, and it's easy to be scum, there would be no reason for him to replace. | ||
|
Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
On May 23 2014 06:07 mtamburini wrote: So when doing voting histroy and analysis you must keep in mind of that there is more than just town and mafia in this game, a common strategy for mafia generally from what Ive heard (correct me if Im wrong) is to spread out their votes if they can so they all do not look scummy for voting together. Having said that think about the win condtions that the non threatening town aligned people could have. The limitations for that faction are endless, I was thinking about it while I was at work. What if a win condition was something along the lines of protecting certain players? This could make them look really bad if that person ends up getting lynched and flip scum by assosiation. Another thing I was thinking about is possible 3rd party win conditions. Correctly lynching/shooting someone from each faction. Or something like killing off an entire faction (town or mafia) Just something to think about when doing the analysis as this is not a "normal" game I actually have something to say on this subject as well. For starters, in order to find scum in the last second vote switches one of the leading candidates has to be scum, so in our case that means Val or Mtam. Now in a game this size, there are usually going to be several scummers who have been lurking along and are going to need to make up bad reasons for why they're not voting for the actual scum. This is where voting analysis usually catches them. However for this game, teams are likely gonna be a lot smaller which means that there will be less scum who are out cold and have to manufacture a reason to vote for the townie. So why do I bring this up? Because it's dangerous to make cases based solely off of voting patterns in this game. While I'm not clearing any of the people who flipped at the end, I'm saying the case against them needs to encompass more than just their vote. Also another reason I'm bringing this up is that a lot of people who are now trying to do analysis had expressed doubts to the scummyness of Val and Mtam so I'd like to remind them that in order to give scum a reason to last second switch, one of those two has to be red. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 23 2014 06:14 kushm4sta wrote: but as scum he could do nothing and be fine. he even said how easy it would be to be scum this game. So if he's scum, and it's easy to be scum, there would be no reason for him to replace. Wave doesn't think like that though. | ||
|
Steveling
Greece10806 Posts
| ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
mtam, how does that stuff affect vote analysis for you? You sort of say that the non-normal nature of the game MIGHT change things, say what a normal mafia team might do, but...it feels like there should then be some kind of conclusion. Is there a particular way you think voting would change in any of those possible settings? | ||
|
Steveling
Greece10806 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:09 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Last minute changes: kushm4sta, Xatalos, Koshi, OnceKing, marvellosity, Hapahauli, thrawn2112, bkqyrldp, Cavalinho, Valenius, Holyflare In that order. I'll bump this here so I can use this at will. | ||
|
27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:56 Blazinghand wrote: "I think tamb would have flipped scum" is the only real objection you could make, because that's the only thing that matters, but ALSO take a look at all that voting activity in the last 3-4 hours of the day. Tons of info Yeah I suppose. | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 06:15 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I actually have something to say on this subject as well. For starters, in order to find scum in the last second vote switches one of the leading candidates has to be scum, so in our case that means Val or Mtam. Now in a game this size, there are usually going to be several scummers who have been lurking along and are going to need to make up bad reasons for why they're not voting for the actual scum. This is where voting analysis usually catches them. However for this game, teams are likely gonna be a lot smaller which means that there will be less scum who are out cold and have to manufacture a reason to vote for the townie. So why do I bring this up? Because it's dangerous to make cases based solely off of voting patterns in this game. While I'm not clearing any of the people who flipped at the end, I'm saying the case against them needs to encompass more than just their vote. Also another reason I'm bringing this up is that a lot of people who are now trying to do analysis had expressed doubts to the scummyness of Val and Mtam so I'd like to remind them that in order to give scum a reason to last second switch, one of those two has to be red. You're absolutely right in terms of looking for first-layer scum motivation. With Val and Mtam on the block, we could expect someone swapping from one of them to Odin to be scum if and only if one of them was scum, if the goal of the swap is to protect a scumbuddy. Typically we'd distinguish this kind of swap by looking to see if it's consistent with what that person thinks or how they think, but ultimately this is the kind of associative tell we could only make after lynching val or mtam (and mtam looks like he is going to be a solid lynch choice tomorrow). So what can we do now, if we don't want to draw associative tells between unflipped players? After all, it's a cardinal sin of mafia to draw associative tells between unflipped players since any time you say "If mtamb is scum, X is scum" you are never more sure X is scum than you are that mtamb is scum-- by definition, associative reads between unflipped players are faulty. So what we do is, we look for what this tells us regardless of the alignment of mtamb and/or val. There are other things to look for. Imagine, for example, there were two lynch candidates, mtamb and Odin. Now, if Odin was town and mtamb was scum, we could look at swaps and understand if there were scum protecting buddies. But what if mtamb is town? Can those swaps mean something to us? Yes, they can. If mtamb is town and Odin is town, and you're scum and you want to maximize mislynches, let's say your'e on mtamb. Now, Odin isn't a realistic possibility. BH has been pushing some kind of wacky RNG lynch all day and it has very little traction outside of a few devout followers. Then, a few hours out from the lynch, BH writes a real case. People start flocking to it. Suddenly, Odin, who didn't seem like a realistic lynch candidate before, seems like a possibility. You start to think: Will Odin even be lynchable tomorrow? Might this be our only chance to lynch Odin? Mtamb can always be lynched later. Then Mtamb comes back into the thread and is saying weird things and peopel hate him for it. Scum thinks to himself, "yes, mtamb as town would always be lynchable. This is my only chance to lynch odin" and he swaps. So, regardless of mtamb's alignment, I think we can find scum in the swaps from mtamb to odin, if and only if the underlying reasoning leading up to the swap was bad or inconsistent with how the player was playing and thinking before. If Mtamb is scum or town, scum has a reason to lynch Odin first. Mtamb as scum wants to be saved; mtamb as town is a safe mislynch and Odin might only be mislynchable once. So, we do what we always do. We look for bad reasoning that doesn't reflect a town mindset, and we lynch those people. | ||
|
Steveling
Greece10806 Posts
OdinOfPergo (13): Blazinghand, a)At first glance I notice that slam who worships bh changed votes. b)If you check the boting thread you will see that BH's train was steadily building. After slam's short switch noone else changed their vote. I wanna see at what point of the game that happened. People not changing their minds about this. c)I kinda predict it happened during the shit case BH built, people's reactions about it will reveal things. Off to diving now. | ||
| ||
