[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia

On December 27 2013 10:24 supersoft wrote:
/in as a shadow

On December 27 2013 10:32 supersoft wrote:
lol
/Shadow




you mean creature. I was just editing this

On January 13 2014 16:02 JonnyLaw wrote:
I was scum in LoLmafia. Sandro and Marv called me scum on day 1. Good times.

On January 14 2014 04:06 JonnyLaw wrote:



You died night 1. Doesnt count.

On January 14 2014 06:31 Hopeless1der wrote:

yeah you shouldnt be playing on the vet team. /sarcasm. (your awesome btw)

On January 21 2014 11:41 Hapahauli wrote:
Or rather, it is policy, but certainly not discussion.

On January 21 2014 11:22 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we're talking meta, pressure won't mean anything to sandroba. He'll either play or he won't, and if he's town he'll probably find some scum. People like kita voting for him as a joke will probably not pressure him as much as you seem to think.

On January 21 2014 11:57 Hapahauli wrote:


Yeah I agree. I've been put off by VE's posting so far, mostly because he's been one of the more active people in the thread and hasn't managed to post anything substantive.

It's reminiscent of my last few voice mafia games with him, where he's willing to talk a lot about irrelevant things at length, while ignoring attempts at any meaningful discussion.

My initial vote on him was random, but I like where it's parked right now.



What's your favorite restaurant? I'll make the reservations <3

On January 21 2014 12:02 kitaman27 wrote:


I can't call VE scummy, else he will vote for me.

I KNOW YOUR SECRETS.

I'd rather talk about marv. He suggest that the all vanilla setup makes things difficult to start off rather than attempting to generate conversation.

On January 21 2014 19:25 marvellosity wrote:

You don't think Prome is being typical arch-bullshitter as per usual?

On January 21 2014 22:52 marvellosity wrote:
Prome, tell me you and Hapa aren't the two players in the game most likely to magic crap out of nothing at the start of a game... ^^

gonz why do you want to concentrate on me if I happen to be voting the person you seem to want to lynch? Is every one of your posts so far a sham? D:

On January 21 2014 23:04 kitaman27 wrote:
snip

So one of your strongest reads currently is based off a joke post?

snip

On January 21 2014 23:14 Holyflare wrote:


There is clearly more than 1 scum in this game. If he has found 1 why has he got the intention to not read to find another?

On January 21 2014 23:16 marvellosity wrote:
Maybe Hero mafia gonzaw

I bussed Adam because Palmar caught him red-handed and if I didn't bus him we were both going down

On January 22 2014 01:16 VisceraEyes wrote:
Morning guys. Marv no, I don't think it's the same kind of Prome that I'm used to seeing. What it reminds me of is that game I was the mayor and lynched the piss out of Prome D1. He was a lurky little shit that game, but I caught him on something very similar to what I noticed this game. Like I think it's awful that I have to ask this, but did you read my post on him?

That being said, I at least dig one of his targets. I asked Foolish about his thoughts on this same matter and what I got is "lol you and Hapa townies" which is definitely NOT what I was after. He answered my question as if he'd read the exchange between us, but left me with a feeling that he hadn't actually read anything at all.

If I see one more person say they're going to ignore my posts, I won't be responsible for the outcome. You have been warned.

On January 22 2014 01:50 kitaman27 wrote:
How much time did you spend looking into Foolishness's history gonzaw? Additionally, what is the point of posting a guide on how to read Foolishness? If you point out his scum qualities before he has any actual posts, do you expect him to read your guide and then get caught anyways? Do you think this was an efficient use of your town as a player who hasn't even read the thread?

When I think of a player that gets off to a trolly start as town, Foolishness is one of the first people to come to mind so I disagree with your assessment based on the posts that you have cherry picked.

I'm still content with my vote on him however based on activity.

On January 22 2014 01:55 marvellosity wrote:
you have a lot of funny questions in your filter kita.

On January 22 2014 02:04 VisceraEyes wrote:

Stop responding and start reading. Kita didn't even care, he's still voting for Foolish. Thread. Read.

On January 22 2014 02:21 VisceraEyes wrote:

Making up bullshit justification is totes fine, and not at all out of character for Prome, you're probably right.

On January 22 2014 03:33 austinmcc wrote:
*dancing queen blares through the stadium*

GOOD LORD, THAT'S HIS MUSIC (how could I not find a clip of this or something similar on youtube?)

I'll give you two thoughts and then you can ask me whatever.

(1)
I think your specific point against prom is the...most specific point against anyone. Lotta "doesn't quite feel right" or "is asking vapid questions", but I wholeheartedly agree that these two posts do not lead me to this justification from promWoS's "question" doesn't concern sandroba, or sandroba play, and is a throwaway silly question anyway. I currently have the score 1-0 VE on the issue of whether Promethelax justified his treating your posts and WoS's posts on Sandroba differently.

(2)
I think all this Foolishness stuff is ... foolishness. He's typed 4.3 words. A big discussion of his alignment based on 4.3 words feels very filler-y, and like nobody can build any particularly strong read on the guy or his play this game. So I don't care about foolishness for now.

On January 22 2014 05:00 austinmcc wrote:
Okeedoke. Maybe we're working in two directions here. I'm mostly poking at the VE/Prome interaction, not a WoS/Prome interaction.

VE asks Prome why Prome kinda on VE's case about saying you're not gonna respond to pressure, bla bla, whatever, but is NOT on WoS's case when WoS says you're not gonna respond to pressure, bla bla, whatever.

Prome saysIf you don't think WoS cares about you, and I pretty much agree that he's not racking his brain for magical Sandroba thoughts, then you think Promethelax is manufacturing his distinction, given that WoS isn't actually curious about you or anything? Or you simply don't care about this Prome/VE interaction at all, or don't care about Prome's reasons, or any other "I am Sandroba and I don't really put much stock into this VE/Prome stuff"

I'm not looking at WoS with this, or WoS/Prome, so much as I'm trying to zero in on the singular post by Prome where he says WoS asks this curious question which I cannot find.

On January 22 2014 06:00 Hapahauli wrote:


This is such a strange question.

1) Why are you talking about him spending so much time on foolishness, when you haven't addressed any of his arguments? Especially... you know... the largest post in the thread currently?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=18#359

2) What is relevant about gonzaw's style so far? He's posted the most content in the thread and has done the most scumhunting of anyone. I don't know how you could raise any questions about his style given what he's posted.

3) Your attitude on Foolishness makes no goddamn sense.
In this post, you're deflecting attention from him and puzzled on how gonzaw could spend time on him.

...yet in your posts addressed to me, you repeatedly call foolishness sketchy, scummy, and are generally suspicious of him and his sparse posting.

What gives?

On January 22 2014 07:05 gonzaw wrote:


The thing is, that when it comes down to Foo', his 3-4 posts are indeed alignment indicative.
I also feel, that if Foo is town, unless there is a huge town mob against him they wouldn't really think about going against him. I mean, Town Foo is Town Foo, he'll get those scummers. Would you, as scum, freely go against a Town Foo, for Town Foo later to catch you and crucify you?
If Foo is somehow town, then he did leave himself open for scum to have "good material to post on", but I don't think a scummer would feel so confident on going against him like he'd do any random lurker from any other random game.

Also, at the very worst, follow this maxim: Sheep marv

Anyways....I kind of feel biased towards this whole "scum Foo" thing, maybe with my VE and Holy reads as well (which interestingly are related to the Foolishness thing as well). I would appreciate new takes on those 2 from other people.

On January 22 2014 07:57 marvellosity wrote:
although apparently i'm the only one who has a hardon for gonzaw right now :/

On January 22 2014 09:41 gonzaw wrote:


I hope you have some more time to waste on me, because I'm keeping my vote on you until I'm convinced you are town or that someone else is more likely scum than you. You could try expanding more on Holy for example, maybe with new stuff that makes you think he's scum.

You can also start by answering some of the stuff I asked you about (those which you haven't answered already).


W need Prome and WOS in here...
...and VE. Where the hell did VE go?
I'm not entirely sure where you guys get your town read on him. He's, at best, unreadable to me. Can't really figure out how some of you can get that much of a town read on him.
Hapa, marv, etc, can you back some of your stuff up with posts from his previous games or something perhaps?

For example, this...


...doesn't really convince me.

For instance, ever since this post ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=15#293 ) he hasn't had a single suspicion on anybody, yet had 1 more page in his filter of posts (he backs out of his Prome scum read)

On January 22 2014 10:27 Holyflare wrote:


I don't feel comfortable at all just posting names without elaborating the why's. It was originally you and gonzaw though but that has been dropping down and down based on replies. I honestly am very limited on time in general (all my posts are from my phone since the start) so when i have to defend myself the elaborating drops a lot. Promise to do it in the morning though.

On January 23 2014 00:05 kitaman27 wrote:
Prom, are you going to be posting a lot within the next hour? If so, I'll move on to Holy and come back to you.

On January 22 2014 07:19 Foolishness wrote:
Here's what I think is going on this game.

There are quite a few questionable people in this game, but by eliminating some obvious town players things start to make more sense.

Towniest of towns
Hapa
VE
Kitaman

Hapa is by far the most town person in this game? Why, put simply if you read his filter he is here, he is active and he is pushing pro-town agendas. This is seen because he is generating conversation, trying to organize the town and get everyone on the same page, and questioning suspicious players where appropriate. This is not a matter of debate if you have read the thread.

Kitaman is similar in matter and this has already been brought to light by a few players. Actually when I started reading the game yesterday his posting reminded me a lot of myself. Slight trolly attitude to try to get things moving, but when push came to shove he was there to call people out on their shit. Now, if you want to read into that and say, "But Foolishness, Kitaman is usually a strong analyzer, posting paragraphs of information and analysis about a person's behavior and actions" I got nothing to say back about that yet. Though I'm sure time will confirm what I think here.

The thing with VE is that yes, on his own some of his posts are suspicious. This one in particular made me raise an eyebrow:
+ Show Spoiler +
where the first two paragraphs seem really out of place and forced, though the last two sentences of the post read very town.

However I think if you just read through his filter and analyze it as a whole there's nothing to be afraid of. Is he pushing any sort of mafia agenda? No. Does it feel like he doesn't have the town's best interest in mind? No. Does it feel like he's actually trying to figure things out? Yes.

Now I can see why some people have shed some suspicion on him (unlike anyone calling Hapa or Kita mafia), but he just does not feel mafia, and he's definitely interested in the game.

Questionable players
Austin
sandroba

marvellosity
Holyflare
Gonzaw

This is roughly in order of most to least town. Austin and sandroba might as well be afk until 3 pages ago, but since coming to the thread both have had strong appearances. I'm okay with them right now because they have brought things to the thread, and it is also obvious that if they continue their activity then they are town. If they keep going afk for long periods of time then start to worry. But I don't feel like that will happen.

The following 3 people are all in the ? category. Marvellosity and Holyflare in particular because for all that they have said I don't feel they have really contributed much. Even as I'm writing this I'm thinking back, "what has marvellosity or holyflare done this game", and I cannot remember a single post they have made. That's a bad sign. Anything mafia indicative off the bat? No so much, but then seem to be here without actually being here.

Gonzaw is only questionable and not mafia because of his recent vote on me. As kitaman properly pointed out, gonzaw brought up a lot of new information about the case on me. That's good and productive. But as he also pointed out, gonzaw just kinda did nothing with it. "Oh here you go I did some research, now don't mind me anymore let me go be trolly and lurk some more" is that kinda vibe I got from that.

mafia
Promethelax
WaveOfShadow

I will go into a little more detail here.

What about this post is good? He says generic things that anybody can say. Also the "Let's do something" seems incredibly forced. What does he hope to accomplish by saying that? I don't know (most likely he's mafia) and it feels like he's trying very hard to sound like he's vested in the game (when all he would have to do is just post whatever his thoughts are).

And then there's this post as well.

Which fails to do nothing but ask more questions of which he never followed through on (neither of them really followed through on to be honest), when he could do have done something like actively push Promethelax to say something of substance.

The thing about Promethelax is that his first post is a big pile of words and nobody said anything about it besides WoS which was just a passing remark. Here's the post again:
+ Show Spoiler +
Promethelax even admits that his post is awful and that we should call him out on it. Sounds great to me! This kinda bait is definitely a mafia trait and if he thinks he's posting bad then we should definitely lynch him for it. The reason being, if he knows his post his bad why is he making it in the first place? His initial post accomplishes nothing and says nothing and only adds fluff to the thread. I am also bothered by his most recent thread post:


Because all his reads feel very convenient. There is nothing in his filter that gives us new information or his original thoughts.

I'm leaving my vote where it is for now, honestly Promethelax is the best lynch right now because the case on him is the strongest, but I need to hear opinions on WaveOfShadow while we have the time.

---

Who we are lynching today: Promethelax, WaveOfShadow.

If they died probably not a huge loss: marvellosity, HolyFlare, Gonzaw

Everyone else deserves to live another day at the least.

On January 23 2014 06:03 Foolishness wrote:

No, but Marvellosity is known for getting things done on day 1.

On January 23 2014 06:51 gonzaw wrote:
Is there ANYBODY who believes Holy might be a good D1 lynch? Even if you don't believe he might be a good lynch (because of replacement stuff), did that last post of his convince you he's town? Did it have an impact on your read of him? If so why?

marvy, you said you would be thinking about Holy after you come back.....so? You are just focusing on Foo now.

On January 23 2014 07:04 austinmcc wrote:
How do we know sandro is replacing out? Did i miss something?

On January 23 2014 07:26 marvellosity wrote:
So Fool and sand are both on Prome

i don't like that lynch very much.

In the part of Prome's filter where he attacked Fool and then voted kita which didn't make very much sense to me given he was apparently suspicious of Fool earlier, but now he's back voting Fool which makes more sense. Kinda confusing actually

On January 23 2014 07:32 Hapahauli wrote:


How is this comment at all alignment indicative? Missing something in the thread is far from a scumtell.

On January 23 2014 07:38 VisceraEyes wrote:
Oh man and he comes in in the eleventh hour too. Unreal.

Prome is sandroba scum for that meta thing? Is anyone scum to you?

On January 23 2014 07:39 austinmcc wrote:
So would that move me off your list of peeps to lynch? Or I'm still there but don't move up?

On January 23 2014 07:41 VisceraEyes wrote:
What ranks him higher than sandroba who is A) a lurker and B) trying to get you lynched? Is it just the fact that he's set to be lynched?

On January 23 2014 07:45 Hapahauli wrote:
Ya know what, I'm retarded.

##Unvote

##Vote Foolishness

On January 23 2014 08:04 Foolishness wrote:



Uh oh

On January 23 2014 08:09 kitaman27 wrote:
I think the biggest thing to consider is whether or not sandroba was the sacrificial lamb in an attempt to save Prom/Foolishness.

On January 23 2014 09:04 Foolishness wrote:

I don't think that's actually possible. Look at the order of events.

Starting at this point where there are 6 votes on me and 3 on Promethelax (keep in mind this is 12 minutes before the deadline):
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=41#820

The six votes on me are (in order of when they occurred): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, marvellosity, Hapahauli.

Now there is definitely some analysis to be done on how these votes accumulated on me but I will save that for later.

At this point gonzaw started the switch on sandroba. Austin immediately joined in. Now only gonzaw was voting on me so I'm still winning by a landslide. It's possible that they did this thinking there is no way a bandwagon on sandroba would start, but I highly doubt they would have that attitude. That is, entertain the thought for a second that gonzaw/Austin are actually mafia. They could just hammer the vote on me to ensure a town lynch (incredibly easy for gonzaw to do, Austin could just toss his vote on Promethelax or somewhere else). But that didn't happen.

Then marvellosity switches his vote as well. At this point I have 4 votes and Promethelax and sandroba both have 3.

Hapa and Promethelax also follow shortly after.

It's definitely clear that the switch to sandroba was started and enforced by towns. This was not mafia bussing each other. The big question to answer here is: what reason would mafia have for switching off of me onto sandroba? If I'm town, there's definitely no reason to. I'm hovering around 50% of votes (HolyFlare's vote isn't going to count), it'd be so easy to just ensure that I got voted. The only scenario where the mafia would have reason to switch is if I'm also mafia (which isn't true). But that scenario, however absurd, would be reasonable, thinking that I'm more valuable to the mafia than sandroba is at this point.

Thus I am in the belief that the votes on sandroba were mostly, if not 100%, town. Including my top suspect Promethelax. This seems to make a lot more sense given how that went down.

What does this all mean? Mafia could have ensured I was lynched if they were on the vote switch, so why bother vote switching in the first place? No, mafia did not vote switch. What's more likely is that the mafia were voting for me but not on the switch (VE, WoS) or the mafia were all voting for Promethelax (me, sandroba, kitaman). Note that kitaman was going against sandroba during day 1.

Remember that assuming Promethelax is town, mafia were in a great position at the end of the day. Town Foolishness has 6 votes and the runner up at 3 votes is also town. This is great for them cause they get to decide who's getting lynched. If I'm mafia why is there not more votes on Promethelax and where is my team to defend me? Sure I got kitaman pushing for Promethelax but I was in a desperate situation there. Things wouldn't have unfolded the way they did if that was the case.

So instead this means that mafia were likely already voting for me. But they wouldn't want to go with the vote switch since that was on a mafia. VE is the only person that fits this bill since he was strangely absent during lynch time (and he posted 15 minutes after the lynch). WoS would be gone but I did feel his vote on me was questionable (will look into that later don't worry). Mafia were voting for me and were sitting comfortably, and when a vote switch happened they weren't around for it.

On January 23 2014 08:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Please stop posting.
Final Vote Count - Deadline at Wednesday, Jan 22 10:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

Sandroba (5): gonzaw, austinmcc, marvellosity, Hapahauli, Promethelax, marvellosity, kitaman27, kitaman27
Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, Sandroba, Hapahauli, VisceraEyes
Foolishness (2): VisceraEyes, WaveofShadow, Hapahauli, Promethelax gonzaw, marvellosity, marvellosity, kitaman27, gonzaw
gonzaw (1): HolyFlare
Kitaman27 (0): Promethelax, WaveofShadow
WaveOfShadow (0): Foolishness
HolyFlare (0): marvellosity, kitaman27, gonzaw VisceraEyes
Hapahauli (0): VisceraEyes
VisceraEyes (0): Hapahauli, kitaman27

Not voted (0)

If you notice a mistake, please let us know!

Sandroba is set to be lynched.

On January 23 2014 07:15 sandroba wrote:
Sup. I'm 95% convinced prom is scum. I could go on and explain my absence etc, but I won't. Let's talk about important things instead.
Getting past the openning post that has already been discussed, his come back post with the kita vote does not make sense for town prom:


This is clearly a total misconception of what kita is trying to acomplish in his post which was question gonzaw in his motives when making an useless post about foolishness early meta and move the thread off an issue he deemed unimportant at the time. Not only that, the reason he he votes for him is because it "reminds him of a game in which he did something simillar" and was scum. Not only this already smells of total bullshit, this already makes sense from the backward logic scum normally has of first deciding who to vote for and later trying to justify it, twisting it to suit their needs. If you are not convinced take a look at how prom presents his vote in the recent pyp game as town:

You could go on and compare both filters from these games and notice how different his tone and assertiviness are a lot different this game in a mafia oriented way. In this game his play is totally reactive and comes from a defensive position, where in the game he was town, even replacing in a slot that had a fair bit of suspicion on it he promoted discussion and basically took over the game.
The man is scum.
##vote: promthelax

On January 23 2014 16:28 VisceraEyes wrote:
I was making dinner. I was interested, I just was frying fucking porkchops and that's labor intensive. Like, I don't know what else to say. I even asked you why you preferred Foolish over sandroba, you can't say I wasn't interested in the lynch. I just had other shit going on.

On January 24 2014 01:02 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm starting to look back now, but one question you can answer while I do so prom:
If I was your leading lynch candidate up until page 30, and the only thing I've really done since then is push a lynch on yourself, rather than swapping to the flipped scum player sandroba, what makes me drop from number one on your list to four?

On January 23 2014 06:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm willing to vote him - I'm just hesitant. And Foolish looks like he's trying to manipulate me and it hurts my soul.

On January 23 2014 07:41 VisceraEyes wrote:
What ranks him higher than sandroba who is A) a lurker and B) trying to get you lynched? Is it just the fact that he's set to be lynched?

On January 23 2014 07:38 VisceraEyes wrote:
Oh man and he comes in in the eleventh hour too. Unreal.

Prome is sandroba scum for that meta thing? Is anyone scum to you?

On January 24 2014 01:51 gonzaw wrote:



You just called him town there. Not scum = town.
Or are you going with that weird "if he is scum, then the reason for him being scum is not his vote on me" reasoning there?
If it's the latter it was worded badly

On January 24 2014 02:43 gonzaw wrote:
lol ninja'd

On January 24 2014 02:55 gonzaw wrote:


I think he said that about Hapa, not you Prome

On January 24 2014 02:56 gonzaw wrote:
I think the most convincing argument you can do about scum VE is he hasn't done shit. The only thing worth remembering him for is that Prome read he had like 3 hours into D1. But he did fuck all with that one later as we all know.

On January 24 2014 05:19 VisceraEyes wrote:

I'm not walking into anything, I'm literally trying to have a conversation. You're being an asshole for no reason. I'm saying please stop. Now please stop.

On January 24 2014 05:30 Foolishness wrote:
Kita is not off the table, but I don't think he's our lynch tomorrow.

On January 24 2014 05:44 VisceraEyes wrote:

It's not complex, it's actually really really simple.

Foolishness, semi-lurker, is paired with sandroba, hard lurker and Promethelax, hard lurker. Foolish decides to try and get a wagon going on Promethelax, knowing that towns typically don't go for lurker lynches and crazy VE is voting for him too so meh. Town, unsurprisingly, votes for another lurker. Generally not a problem, but in this case it's the OTHER scum. So Promethelax has to come out of hard lurk and vote with town.

On January 24 2014 06:01 kitaman27 wrote:


This is probably the best place to start with the voting analysis. With 50 minutes to go, the Foolishness vs Prom lynch is wide open. At this point, mafia has their choice of either player to flip.

In a town vs town scenario, mafia generally prefer to vote the player that is not going to flip. That gives them an excuse to push the same player the next cycle, rather than finding a new target to go after.

In town vs mafia, it can usually go two ways. A strong scum player will give their support to their scum buddy by voting the town candidate. From my experience, it is pretty rare to see a mafia player vote their own scum buddy in a close lynch early. A weaker scum player will generally wait until more town votes come in and there is a clearer picture of where the lynch is heading. They may decide to vote for their scum buddy later on if they think that is where the lynch is heading. If they can put their vote on an buddy that isn't going to flip, that's usually the preferred scenario.



Next, sandroba comes in with his vote on Prom. This actually makes me reconsider my red Prom read. If it's town vs town here, sandroba doesn't really care and Prom is town. If it's town Prom vs mafia Foolishness, then the vote makes sense. A mafia prom vs a town foolishness doesn't make much sense. It would be incredibly risky to tie the vote up at 3v3 and his little reward. Sure, Foolishness could flip and sandroba might look better, but at the expense of endangering his scum buddy when he could make it 4v2? If the bus is going on, then it must have been a last minute decision because there is little interaction between the two in the thread. Not much reward there either.

At this point, I also don't think the mafia team was thinking about a sandroba lynch. With 1/8 votes actually on Sandro, he knows he is going to get in trouble for showing up at the last minute, but I don't think mafia is in "lets bus sandroba" mode.



Prom returns to the thread and moves his vote over to Foolishness. I had an issue with this at the time, but on second thought I think it's fine as town or mafia. He has already shared suspicion of Foolishness earlier in the thread and his vote is going no where on myself. He doesn't seem to consider sandroba, but it's possible that he doesn't see that as an option yet.



Hapa joins Prom, Marv joins Foolishness. Not much to say here. Vote could still go either way.



I think this vote from Holy eliminates a Fool-Holy and Prom-Holy mafia team. As a player without any value for the mafia team due to replacement, unless a mafia Holy is 100% cut off from all communication with his scum team, I think he would vote to save a buddy, rather than abstain, even if he wasn't totally caught up.



At this point, it seems pretty likely that Foolishness is getting lynched with only 10 minutes left in the day.

The vote swap to sandroba comes in the following order: gonzaw, austin, marv, Hapa, Prom

I don't see this as a swap that was mafia driven. It's likely that they were caught off guard here. I have a strong town read on gonza/Hapa, and I'm thinking town Prom due to the reasoning above. marv I was suspicious of most of yesterday before the lynch, but he plays a strong role here and makes some good points throughout the later part of the cycle. Unless it's marv + foolishness (which seems unlikely), I'm leaning town on him as well.

I don't feel that I have a good grasp on austin. He does play a role in the lynch by getting on sandroba 2nd in the swap, but he seemed mostly willing to go with where the town lead him. If Hapa/marv went to Prom instead, it seems like he would have joined them. If there is a mafia in this group of 5, it seems like it would be him, but I need to think more about that.

Finally, we have Foolishness. Based on the way the votes went down, I'm struggling to see who the third scum buddy would be if he is mafia. I don't think he would be with Holy due to the reasons I mentioned earlier. Does VE or WoS really leave Foolishness out to dry by leaving the thread when he is in trouble? marv has too many interactions with him, unless they are trying to put on a show. Prom seems unlikely. gonzaw and Hapa look town, unless there is something I'm really overlooking. That really only lives Foolishness/sandroba/austin. I suppose that could be a possibility with austin being on the "anyone but Foolishness" side of things. It might also explain why austin was reluctant to vote prom when he seemed to be one of his preferred targets a bit before the swap since it would mean all three scum players would be on the same player, which could get ugly late game. I'm somewhat concerned with the fact that he doesn't seem to consider that I could be mafia at any point in the game. From my experience, I usually get called town by the mafia players, while town players are a bit more paranoid. sandroba and austin are also guilty of that this game. I'm probably still leaning town on him, though less so than others.

It seems to be that the individuals who were absent are the ones most likely to be mafia (VE, WoS, Holy), which seems to be where the town is leaning as well. I'm going to reread all three when I have the time.

On January 24 2014 07:52 gonzaw wrote:


He was somewhat angry right after sandro died.

Also, dunno about you, but I see this as being somewhat depressed:

On January 24 2014 07:54 austinmcc wrote:
I waited like a month to have this game start. Scum better not just get "depressed" and play poorly

Foolishness has two big posts since the lynch. They're entirely concerned with the timing of votes and whatnot. I still see this as a good place for mafia to hide and just get activity out of speculation. HOWEVER, Foolishness's posts are some of the least speculative of that bunch, he does go into WoS's filter and pull some things out, do a little analysis. But overall, he's very quick to just say that all sandro voters are town, give a list of 4-5 people that need looking out (which is, btw, basically everyone who didn't vote sandro). To me, the actually reads and posts from yesterday are more important than a bunch of speculation on votes and timing, ESPECIALLY when ALL the speculation comes from "you guys have to assume I'm town."

If you want, myself or someone else can type up an identical big post in the world where sandroba AND foolishness are town. We can fully explain what votes moved, why, etc. etc. And it'll be based just as much on someone who is unflipped being a particular alignment. Except our post would be bolstered by Foolishness's D1 play.


One question, and I'm still lazy so it's not like I can say I've done this, but do you find Foolishness going from terrible posts to good posts to be a town Foolishness trait? Or is that something that mafia Foolishness actually does when under pressure? I don't remember him becoming entirely absent when under suspicion, I'm pretty sure he USUALLY posts some semi-reasonable looking lists of reads, or at least reads reasonable enough that a lot of the thread goes "hey, that looks pretty good." Off the top of my head, he has a decently well-reasoned list post and some followup in Bureaucracy (he was scum), a less-well-reasoned list post and I think some other jazz in Parallel Worlds, and I don't like remembering that Champions Game because it was kinda painful to read.

On January 24 2014 08:03 Promethelax wrote:
huh? Okay.

##Vote: VE

On January 25 2014 21:57 Promethelax wrote:
Which of be and toad do you prefer to lynch Marv? Like I get those are the most lynchable, I don't disagree with you but which one and why?

And I'd point out I just posted that ve is still me top lynch suspect. VE is leading votes right now. What more do you want? He hasn't slipped under the radar so much as Gonzaw is pressuring elsewhere be causing Gonzaw has pants full of ants and Kita/WoS are after fool.

On January 25 2014 22:05 marvellosity wrote:

I don't really get the point of desperately trying to exonerate one player. Just lynch the two mafia. It's not that complicated.

On January 28 2014 08:21 WaveofShadow wrote:

Read the thread first.
Also did you include Holy in your page count re: Toad? He joined late so it's not exactly fair. (I also worry about using thread-count metrics to look into people. While it does have merit in most games even though some people argue it doesn't, in this game it seems to already have created some controversy around me. I'd prefer if that doesn't become the focus for when people inevitably critique your reads.)

On January 28 2014 08:45 Toadesstern wrote:




?

But I'm watching WcW for the next hour so I'll leave it at that

On January 28 2014 09:10 marvellosity wrote:

you literally provide evidence of how it is possible for a mafia player not to have read his predecessor's posts, and then say it screams town. Can you see that?

On January 28 2014 10:14 Foolishness wrote:
Oh, I'm also pretty certain I have the last mafia in the bag as well.

On January 28 2014 19:21 marvellosity wrote:

You were going to filter Foolish when you got home...?

On January 22 2014 03:55 austinmcc wrote:
I want HolyFlare and hapahauli to chat with each other some more. Holy's filter has a hapa phase and then a Gonzaw/foolishness-y phase, but hapa hasn't been back to discuss Holy's big hapa post or anything else. I think we should put them both in a closet and listen closely at the door to see what they say.

Wave's filter, apart from needing that correction made to his posts, is mostly mush. I do like his post calling giving specific reads on VE, hapa, though. He spoke with them a bit earlier in the day, and the talking --> reads for reasons looks townie to me at this point in the game.


Marv opened with ahoyhoy which means he's ancient. As far as the rest of his filterInitial plan was to play similarly to the last numbered game I was in. I actually felt really good about my D1 just poking at people, trying to get reads, trying to get activity, and I think I do a decent job as activity/friendliness cop. However, that style doesn't translate to a game without a mayor, a smaller game, and a game where people are most likely all going to be active. So my plan to how I would approach D1 is unlikely to be how I actually approach it.

marv, gimme some particular questions of kita's that you find wonky. I think I really like his filter, and perhaps there's fruitful discussion there

On January 28 2014 23:27 marvellosity wrote:
I never told you... but... I have to be intoxicated to really get into it

On January 28 2014 23:30 marvellosity wrote:

Because he said that being a thread cop wasn't appropriate and then went ahead and did it anyway you mean? Why does that = mafia?

On January 22 2014 08:41 austinmcc wrote:
Anything in particular that sandro posted within the last little bit to have you move him up this way? A lot of your other reads are spelled out, sandro and I are lumped together.

On January 28 2014 23:39 marvellosity wrote:

Holy may be a smaller fish, but he's still in this game. What were the *results* of Holyflare talking about sandroba? Where's the vote? Who's convinced?

On January 28 2014 23:42 marvellosity wrote:
Lol. O.o Are you actually cancelling your whole case on that small bit of wifom?

On January 28 2014 23:45 marvellosity wrote:
your reasoning is atrocious though

On January 28 2014 23:52 austinmcc wrote:
prome, what was the conspiracy theory you wanted to chat about?

On January 28 2014 23:57 austinmcc wrote:
Not a good one. I've been reading, but not posting.

On January 29 2014 00:01 austinmcc wrote:
If fool and sand are scum together and you're me and you throw out Toad as possible mafia, then the likeliest scum candidate is kita. Which you know, because you just read my filter.

In that scenario, I don't think he has to work to make himself look good. He's got to look BETTER than other lynch alternatives, but it's LIKELY that in a sand/fool/+1 team, the +1 is the guy you're setting up for endgame. Foolishness almost got lynched on D1, has had relatively consistent pressure/votes/suspicion on him throughout the game, so I think all the +1 has to do is look better than the non-foolishness lynch candidates.

I don't think he tries and distances or buddies Foolishness, because he doesn't really need to. He just has to not sink to the bottom of the questionable group, can lynch Foolishness if need be, and hope to ride things out til late-ish.

On January 29 2014 00:25 austinmcc wrote:
To the extent you're looking for non-kita there, I'd disagree.

I thought your conspiracy was headed somewhere else when you first asked it.

On January 28 2014 08:10 Promethelax wrote:
Filter page count
Toad: 5
Fool: 5
Marv: 13
Austin: 9
Kita: 10
Me: 5
WoS: 14

Based on this I'd say at least one of Fool/Toad is scum. It is a rough measuring stick but since I have reason to town read the four players with double the post count of myself and the above players it isn't a bad reason to start there. I know that some scum make sure to have at least as many posts as the bottom tier townie and since there are three of us with 5 posts everyone can see that at least one townie has that post count. Since I have my own role pm I can eliminate me from the proceedings.

This chart shall dictate the order I read filters in
1. Toad
2. Fool
3. Kita
4. + Show Spoiler [WoS] +

On January 29 2014 00:50 austinmcc wrote:
Towards marv being a sneaky snake, and a possible marv/foolishness team. I thought I was being asked cuz I've been making paranoid comments about marv, not in my capacity as a generic conspiracy theory aficionado.

On January 29 2014 00:55 austinmcc wrote:
Okay. But in reading my filter to make a case on me/unmake a case on me, you should have noticed this series of posts.

+ Show Spoiler +

On January 29 2014 02:09 Toadesstern wrote:

change things up as in, you got in here and you're actively trying to do something about the situation of you guys looking worse right now...

On January 29 2014 02:49 austinmcc wrote:
Above post may answer some of that.

I'm PROBABLY going to not think about anything else. Fully happy with toadread. Can peek more at WoS and kita, but if reads don't change on either of them, then I'm left with 3 people and one scenario (you/foolish) that looks unlikely, and prome being mafia in ALL SCENARIOS.

On January 29 2014 02:57 kitaman27 wrote:


YES!

On January 29 2014 20:48 WaveofShadow wrote:

Hmm.
I seem to be very short of convinced.
I also don't see what made his switch to sandroba scummy when nobody considered it as such days ago.

On January 23 2014 15:12 Promethelax wrote:


So from this I'd say at least one scum is not on sandro and if a scum is on sand he isn't around at deadline. Since all votes on sand were at deadline only Austin/Marv could be scum voters since they'd be the ones believing scumdroba wouldn't be lynched and getting credit from it (assuming fool is town, not a great assumption though) think Marv is better at reading thread sentiment and would know that the switch was going to happen moe than Austin.

Gonzaw, me, Hapa are town from lynch. Gon/hap town already anyways so I don't learn anything here.

Marv and Kita look bad for unvoting scum. Kita more than Marv. I think. Not sure.

I would not be shocked if last two scum are in WoS, VE, holy, fool Kita. I need to looking to possible pairs.
I think VE is best .ynch of those. Going to reread sand now.

On January 29 2014 21:06 marvellosity wrote:
I don't want you to be scum, still. boo.

On January 29 2014 21:07 marvellosity wrote:

Comments like this aren't helping.

On February 01 2014 01:30 Toadesstern wrote:
I am. I think you're better of trying to convince WoS and trying to get Marv to abort his bus on you.

On February 01 2014 01:43 Toadesstern wrote:
I really don't think I'm going to switch to someone else. Sorry I know that's going to be furstrating (no matter of alignment), I went through that in the failgame as well but yeah I really don't see me changing my vote today

On February 01 2014 05:49 austinmcc wrote:
Do you want to vote marv today?

On February 01 2014 05:53 WaveofShadow wrote:

Oh horseshit.
What if I really was playing just this good of a scumgame?
It's honestly not that hard if you simply abandon 'mafia agenda' and just pretend to be town and absorb all the risks that come with it.

On February 01 2014 06:41 austinmcc wrote:
Basically that ^

#montpeliervermont