[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 73

On January 25 2014 03:37 gonzaw wrote:


lol Wave's play this game has been anything but unmotivated.

Anyways, could lynch Toad today I guess.
But VE isn't doing shit.

On January 25 2014 03:31 gonzaw wrote:
Here Wave, I'll make your Foo+Holy/Toad case for you:



Holy is like 100% scum for him initially.



However Foo doesn't talk or do anything regarding Holy for like 24 more hours, where he backs out ONLY based on the sub thing, and nothing else (i.e forgets the previous case)

+ Show Spoiler +

But now he wants him lynched as well? Second to Prome in a wishy washy manner of course.



In the italics, he calls him "good lynch", yet in the bolded he backs out again in a wishy-washy manner?
How can you say "I could also just be reading too much into this" if you just called him "good lynch" and are saying "He's a very good lynch I wouldn't mind him dead" and the like all the time?



This is his last thoughts on the matter at the end of the day basically. Prome and Holy NEED to die. Yet his vote is on Prome, never even considers changing it to Holy (only saying "Yeah! If it comes down to it I will surely vote Holy of course!" when pressured and the like), and even backed out of Holy before so is he still wanting to lynch him or not?
Anyways, before sandro died, he wanted Prome and Holy dead.

What about after sandro died?
Here is his 3rd page of his filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&user=Foolishness&currentpage=2
Check from this post basically: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=44#872

Now CTRL+F Holy and Toad.

Here are the results:
Holy:





Toad:

That's it. Those are the ONLY mentions of his 2nd scumread. Sorry, LEAD scumread (after backing out of Prome), all of N1 and D2.

How so? Well, remember this post? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=46#914

In this post Foolishness proves Promethelax is town. Therefore, Foo stops chasing Promethelax. Makes sense.
That post, and posterior posts of his though, make little mention of the non-sandro voters though.

So, check this again:

Foo's 2 SUPER HEAVY scumreads are Prome and Holy. Sandro dies, he "exonerates" Prome...
...so what about Holy?
Nothing. He even says stuff like

Foo, shouldn't YOU be advocating Holy is mafia....since you know...HE SHOULD BE YOUR LEAD MAFIA CANDIDATE NOW?

No mentions of Toad either, just in passing.

Woudln't a Foolishness+sandro+Holy scumteam make sense?
Think about it: Holy has IRL issues and can't be active. Holy was AFK for most of the day (just was posting early D1 nothing else). Most likely, in scumland, he was AFK as well.
sandro was AFK too. So, the ONLY active scum is Foolishness.
That does seem to make sense right? Foo is alone to fight town. Therefore, all the votes piling on him without "resistance" isn't really a problem, since only town is active in the thread (sandro and Holy are afk, thus can't do shit) and only town is voting in the thread.
When sandro does come back though, he tries to save Foo somewhat by going against Prome who had 2 votes at the time.

Holy voted me (and not Prome for instance). Here is his vote:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=41#807
The votecount at that time was 5-Foolishness and 4-Prome. You could say scum Holy would vote Prome to save Foo right? But then again, that'd basically make him out himself. Holy didn't do anything, had no scum reads. Why the hell would he randomly vote Prome? It would make no sense and out him as scum. This he takes the safe route out and wastes his vote. Foo had the most votes at that time, and even if Holy voted Prome it'd be 5v5, with Foo still getting lynched (because he had 5 votes first).

It could also make more sense of his actions "confirming" the townies and acting pro-town. He says so himself, the only suspects left would be Wave, VE, kita and Toad. But, he, and we as well, are focusing on VE, Wave and kita. Those could be 3 misslynches, before we get to Holy. Scum wins with 3 mislynches, so it's a viable strategy for scum Foo to act "pro-town", make sense, confirm those townies, etc. That way he makes us all believe he is town (so we don't lynch him), and he uses his influence to avoid getting Toad lynched. Hell, maybe after this he backs out of his "these guys are confirmed town" read and goes after marv or Prome again (when town starts to panic and get paranoid)

..........did I just convince myself of this?
Fuck if I know
Fuck this game, I'm going to watch cats on youtube.

On January 23 2014 09:54 WaveofShadow wrote:

Ehhhhh....I see what you mean but then he also sets up his replacement to look like absolute shit in the opposite case. I imagine if he was scum a host would still tell him to vote, and I know I certainly wouldn't lie as either alignment.

On January 25 2014 03:16 Toadesstern wrote:
He wasn't around at deadline either, no posting. There's a certain mafia agenda to be found there.

• Mafia does not want to start a Sandroba wagon
  
• Mafia does not want to hop on a Sandroba wagon assuming that at least one of Foolish or Prom is town
  
• Mafia does not want to defend Sandroba either

Seems l pretty convenient to not be around at deadline if you're mafia.

The above however and the fact that hapa died is more than enough to prioritize WoS over VE today.

On January 25 2014 03:42 gonzaw wrote:
But then your case doesn't hold any water.
In fact, if he's been motivated this whole game, and he said "I'm relieved to be town, if I was scum I'd be terrified", then who gives a shit if his 1st post is unmotivated, if the other 500 are?
If he said that, but he played like VE (not doing much, then ragequitting, etc), it'd be a GREAT contradiction, where he said that stuff to gain town cred but contradicted it and outted himself as scum.
Yet it is consistent with his play

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=72#1434

This entire case of yours sucks Toad.
Nitpicking little shit (seriously you think he's scum because of the "no reason to vote sandro yet" thing?), bla bla

##Unvote
##Vote: Toad

VE, your turn. I'm not voting you anymore, what are you going to do?

On January 25 2014 03:45 Toadesstern wrote:

you didn't even read it. IT had nothing to do with him being unmotivated but with him faking.

He SOUNDED unmotivated in that one specific post, his entrance post when he should not have. He should have sounded delighted to be town, like he said. What he said and how he said it didn't add up.

I'm not making a case on him being unmotivated, I'm making a case about how he's not making sense in the way he's talking and constantly has posts that read like a farce, like the two big posts about VE, like the opening posts. What he posts and how he reacts are completly off in those posts.

On January 25 2014 03:47 gonzaw wrote:
Sorry, don't see how saying "Welp" says anything about his psychological state at the time. That post is not unmotivated either.

Welp, gonna go with my usual opener.

On January 25 2014 03:50 WaveofShadow wrote:

Just ignore the rest of my filter though, k?
So ridiculous.
There is nothing in your case against me that brings up anything legitimate in any way.

On January 25 2014 03:50 Toadesstern wrote:

how is
not unmotivated. That's the most whatever-post I've ever read. If he actually is happy to have rolled town he would have posted something different, probably even something stupid just to express that, instead he just goes with his "usual" opening without anything at all.

He's either lying about being happy to have rolled town, which I don't see a reason for either alignment to lie about.
Or this post doesn't add up with what he's saying.

On January 23 2014 09:04 Foolishness wrote:

I don't think that's actually possible. Look at the order of events.

Starting at this point where there are 6 votes on me and 3 on Promethelax (keep in mind this is 12 minutes before the deadline):
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=41#820

The six votes on me are (in order of when they occurred): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, marvellosity, Hapahauli.

Now there is definitely some analysis to be done on how these votes accumulated on me but I will save that for later.

At this point gonzaw started the switch on sandroba. Austin immediately joined in. Now only gonzaw was voting on me so I'm still winning by a landslide. It's possible that they did this thinking there is no way a bandwagon on sandroba would start, but I highly doubt they would have that attitude. That is, entertain the thought for a second that gonzaw/Austin are actually mafia. They could just hammer the vote on me to ensure a town lynch (incredibly easy for gonzaw to do, Austin could just toss his vote on Promethelax or somewhere else). But that didn't happen.

Then marvellosity switches his vote as well. At this point I have 4 votes and Promethelax and sandroba both have 3.

Hapa and Promethelax also follow shortly after.

It's definitely clear that the switch to sandroba was started and enforced by towns. This was not mafia bussing each other. The big question to answer here is: what reason would mafia have for switching off of me onto sandroba? If I'm town, there's definitely no reason to. I'm hovering around 50% of votes (HolyFlare's vote isn't going to count), it'd be so easy to just ensure that I got voted. The only scenario where the mafia would have reason to switch is if I'm also mafia (which isn't true). But that scenario, however absurd, would be reasonable, thinking that I'm more valuable to the mafia than sandroba is at this point.

Thus I am in the belief that the votes on sandroba were mostly, if not 100%, town. Including my top suspect Promethelax. This seems to make a lot more sense given how that went down.

What does this all mean? Mafia could have ensured I was lynched if they were on the vote switch, so why bother vote switching in the first place? No, mafia did not vote switch. What's more likely is that the mafia were voting for me but not on the switch (VE, WoS) or the mafia were all voting for Promethelax (me, sandroba, kitaman). Note that kitaman was going against sandroba during day 1.

Remember that assuming Promethelax is town, mafia were in a great position at the end of the day. Town Foolishness has 6 votes and the runner up at 3 votes is also town. This is great for them cause they get to decide who's getting lynched. If I'm mafia why is there not more votes on Promethelax and where is my team to defend me? Sure I got kitaman pushing for Promethelax but I was in a desperate situation there. Things wouldn't have unfolded the way they did if that was the case.

So instead this means that mafia were likely already voting for me. But they wouldn't want to go with the vote switch since that was on a mafia. VE is the only person that fits this bill since he was strangely absent during lynch time (and he posted 15 minutes after the lynch). WoS would be gone but I did feel his vote on me was questionable (will look into that later don't worry). Mafia were voting for me and were sitting comfortably, and when a vote switch happened they weren't around for it.