EPT[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 4
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
| ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Call it a sheep of gonzaw or thread sentiment if you want, if not you can use my current line of questions/suspicion including my earlier problems with his first case on me. This may be one of the most difficult games I've played in, and it's a good kind of difficult. ##Vote: Foolishness Be back a little bit after deadline. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 08:34 austinmcc wrote: It's part paranoia, but I don't think we can quite read the entire game off of today's lynch. People here are hopefully decent enough not to ALL make scummy votes, or do super scummy stuff, and I know in recent games I've been bitten by assuming scum didn't want scum lynched or blah blah blah. It wasn't D1 and D1 seems super different cuz you don't want to lose scumbuddies, but...there are enough crafty fellas in this game that I worry about shifting 7-8 reads based on the votes/lynch. Not because I don't agree, but because 1-2 of those shifts are probably scumbuddies and we'll be wrong later. I find it to be almost universally true that on D1 lynches scum will just vote with the rest of town like good little sheep. On TL it's way more common to bus than to try and save a teammate. In others news, fuck yeah! I knew I had good reason to be thankful I didn't roll scum in this game.  Sorry I wasn't around to help with last-second vote shenannies, though I did call the afkers coming back to mess with shit in the last moments of the day. Not that it matters much, but I can't say I would have been opposed to switching onto sandro were I here; I don't think I would have switched off of Foolishness to Prome though, especially considering I really didn't like sandro's post. I RAN that PYP game and I know exactly how Prome stormed into that thread and posted; the circumstances were completely different and incomparable. I don't know what any of that means for Prome though, likely we just ignore Sandro's late posting entirely and move on. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
| ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:04 Foolishness wrote: I don't think that's actually possible. Look at the order of events. Starting at this point where there are 6 votes on me and 3 on Promethelax (keep in mind this is 12 minutes before the deadline): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=41#820 The six votes on me are (in order of when they occurred): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, marvellosity, Hapahauli. Now there is definitely some analysis to be done on how these votes accumulated on me but I will save that for later. At this point gonzaw started the switch on sandroba. Austin immediately joined in. Now only gonzaw was voting on me so I'm still winning by a landslide. It's possible that they did this thinking there is no way a bandwagon on sandroba would start, but I highly doubt they would have that attitude. That is, entertain the thought for a second that gonzaw/Austin are actually mafia. They could just hammer the vote on me to ensure a town lynch (incredibly easy for gonzaw to do, Austin could just toss his vote on Promethelax or somewhere else). But that didn't happen. Then marvellosity switches his vote as well. At this point I have 4 votes and Promethelax and sandroba both have 3. Hapa and Promethelax also follow shortly after. It's definitely clear that the switch to sandroba was started and enforced by towns. This was not mafia bussing each other. The big question to answer here is: what reason would mafia have for switching off of me onto sandroba? If I'm town, there's definitely no reason to. I'm hovering around 50% of votes (HolyFlare's vote isn't going to count), it'd be so easy to just ensure that I got voted. The only scenario where the mafia would have reason to switch is if I'm also mafia (which isn't true). But that scenario, however absurd, would be reasonable, thinking that I'm more valuable to the mafia than sandroba is at this point. Thus I am in the belief that the votes on sandroba were mostly, if not 100%, town. Including my top suspect Promethelax. This seems to make a lot more sense given how that went down. What does this all mean? Mafia could have ensured I was lynched if they were on the vote switch, so why bother vote switching in the first place? No, mafia did not vote switch. What's more likely is that the mafia were voting for me but not on the switch (VE, WoS) or the mafia were all voting for Promethelax (me, sandroba, kitaman). Note that kitaman was going against sandroba during day 1. Remember that assuming Promethelax is town, mafia were in a great position at the end of the day. Town Foolishness has 6 votes and the runner up at 3 votes is also town. This is great for them cause they get to decide who's getting lynched. If I'm mafia why is there not more votes on Promethelax and where is my team to defend me? Sure I got kitaman pushing for Promethelax but I was in a desperate situation there. Things wouldn't have unfolded the way they did if that was the case. So instead this means that mafia were likely already voting for me. But they wouldn't want to go with the vote switch since that was on a mafia. VE is the only person that fits this bill since he was strangely absent during lynch time (and he posted 15 minutes after the lynch). WoS would be gone but I did feel his vote on me was questionable (will look into that later don't worry). Mafia were voting for me and were sitting comfortably, and when a vote switch happened they weren't around for it. Problem here is the fact that there is nothing that precludes scum (assuming they were around) from realizing where things were going and jumping aboard. Scum on TL bus. All the damn time. It's what they do, and I wouldn't put it past them to do it here too. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:13 Hapahauli wrote: But Wave, rather than speculate on whether a bus could have occurred, which votes do you think are possible bus votes? Surely we have the time to look into this now. Of course. I'm not in anyway stating that is for sure what happened, but I'm not crossing it off my list or considering it unlikely. I've seen way too much retarded bussing, and just because of the supposed calibre of player in this game I refuse to discount it. Now considering the lynch happened with only 5 people and gonzaw is all but confirmed town that only leaves the other 4. The 'hammer' happened too quickly for me to put much thought into it. The scenario I could see here is an indignant scumteam member looking at sandro's 'contributions' this game, realizing where it was going once the push began and jumping on for supercred (supercred, considering how most people it seems will be viewing this lynch, ie all 5 voters being likely town considering circumstances), especially since snadro didn't seem to do much to change things after he popped in, spewed some crap and left. The other scenario is sandro giving 'permission' to bus once he himself realized where it was going once gonzaw started up. In terms of likelihood I can't honestly be certain if one scenario seems more likely than another here, as there are many people in this game I have never seen play scum and so marv's saying 'only bad TL scum do this' doesn't mean much. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:14 austinmcc wrote: I have not seen as many D1 busses as you, apparently, WoS. But yeah, the way the switches were working, I don't think ANYONE could see thread sentiment. I would happily have lynched someone else with 5 minutes to go, don't think I even voted until right towards deadline. I think the push was sudden enough that mafia either hops on or not, but only out of gut reaction, not because they could really see where things were headed. I mean, it was fast enough that, apart from foolishness, there wasn't really any push BACK that I saw. Because pushing back is DANGEROUS when shenannies are involved, and scum are often really concerned about how a strong push away from someone will look later on in a game. That's what causes ridiculous bussing much of the time. Again I want to make this clear, I am not assuming that the last 2 scum are among austin/marv/prome/hapa, but I would not be surprised if that list contained one. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:16 gonzaw wrote: I started this conspiracy theory in a joking manner, but lol it does have lots of points in favor of it. Although, I think getting VE lynched comes before that. I just don't see VE as town here. He did absolutely nothing since his Prome "read". Just pressured Foo' a little bit, then did absolutely nothing. He randomly says "Holy/sandro/Foo are interesting guys", and then doesn't give a shit and flings his vote at any of those (not at sandro though coincidentally) without any reasoning whatsoever, and doesn't give a fuck about justifying himself even when I try to get it out of his tongue. Then he shows up at deadline, is there, but wastes his time posting some questions to Prome and doing shit all. Had his vote parked on Foolishness, did shit all with that. He even asked Prome about sandro being suspicious or something, yet he had vote on Foo'. Doesn't do any more shit until sandro flips, then comes here and posts ONLY to defend himself. Yeah...he dies tomorrow. I guess I can put some pretty colors and quotes later on. It'd be funny if the scum team is sandro - VE - Prome and they have been setting up this whole show lol I mean, Prome found VE scum initially with "shitty" reasons and the like, right? (when he ignored WoS, etc). Then VE found Prome suspicious initially right? They were the only 2 "going against each other" initially. Yet nothing came from that. VE then promptly forgets about Prome, yet somehow says he still has a scumread on him. Prome ignores VE as well. When deadline comes, VE ONLY talks to Prome about sandro. It's like he's setting stuff up, he even asks Prome: And look! Prome responds! Prome's vote is on Foo. VE's vote is on Foo. sandro has a very weak vote on Prome and disappeared off the face of the earth. Foo and Prome had the same amount of votes there (although Foo was leading). Prome then promptly tried to explain himself to Hapa so Hapa would unvote him and Foo would gain the most amount of votes! And well Foo later gained 6 votes to Prome's 3 votes Doesn't seem too good to be true!? Whenever sandro flips, Prome and VE look good for life! If Prome flips, VE and sandro look good too (VE for the initial "suspicions" on Prome, sandro for the vote) If VE flips, Prome looks good (for that initial push) I FOUND OUT YOUR SECRETS SCUM!!!! lol this is incredibly fun OH jesus it's PTP: Dr Who all over again | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:22 Hapahauli wrote: No no, this is still all speculation. We need to talk about votes. Which specific votes in particular look like possible bus votes? Which look like town votes? You can talk all you want about the scumteam, but it's pointless unless you determine which votes are the ones in question. Alright. Gonzaw is clean, likely austin as well because there isn't even any time in between those votes to discuss anything if austin were scum, and it really would be a horrible thing to do to your team if he were considering where the therad was at that time. Right around then, (page 42) Foolishness can be seen to be basically defending sandro. Again question becomes, is this scum blatantly defending a buddy here, or town pushing his own idea of what's good? Impossible to tell. Moving on, marv and hapa votes. There was enough time in between where gonzaw did his thing and the 3rd/4th votes popped on that either of my earlier scenarios could have taken place, especially if 2/3rds of the scumteam are around. Pure voting analysis with my 'speculation' in mind does not eliminate either of those two, however it does likely preclude them BOTH being scum because the only way that happens is if sandroba told them both to bus him immediately. Plausible, not likely (since it eliminates the lone 'indignant scum member' case). If that did in fact happen, we may very well be in trouble, but given the thread's (and my) townread on Hapa I don't think it's the case. Prome obviously cannot be eliminated either, and may in fact be most likely considering all that went down, and his considerable decline in posting quality right around the deadline. Conclusions: I believe one scum to be on the sandroba wagon---either marv/hapa OR Prome, and one more on Foolishness (or is Toad). | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:32 austinmcc wrote: I like hapa's chutzpah here, but am too content and lazy to engage in answering I do too, and that's why I'm answering.  | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
| ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:38 Hapahauli wrote: @ Wave OK so we've identified 3 possible bus votes. Marv, myself, and Prome. You apparently don't believe that I'm scum, so what about the other two? What are your reads on Marv and Prome? Is there anything about their voting that's sketchy, or are they just possible bus candidates? Secondly... Why can the scum not be on Prome's wagon? Why is it more likely that there's 1 scum on the sandroba wagon than 0? I have to go back and look at more on marv/Prome in detail when I get a chance. Scum (aside from sandroba) can be on Prome's wagon, I corrected the post. As for why it is more likely to be 1 scum on sandroba than 0...call it an educated guess. Scum are pretty damn paranoid about where their votes end up and what better place for a vote to be? | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:48 gonzaw wrote: Hey kita, I think your Mafia Combinatorics thing might be useful here. For example, VE and Foo just can't be scum together. I believe Prome and kita can't be scum together either (BOTH kita and sandro being on him and kita doing nothing, specially not jumping on the sandro wagon (when he already has a vote on another scumbuddy) doesn't make sense). We could cross other possible scumteams out, and maybe get somewhere. I could get in on this. Why can't VE/Foolishness be scum? Purely interaction-based? | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:49 Hapahauli wrote: Do that. mmmkay. Do you think scum have the time to be paranoid in a 5 minute vote swing? If they're around, yes. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:51 gonzaw wrote: We also have to consider the possibility of Holy/Toad being scum. If that's the case, then there would only be 1 more scum at deadline besides sandro, and that changes things (for instance, that scum alone can't do anything and he can't plan anything, etc). I'm kind of gearing towards H/T being town. Specially with Holy's last vote. It seemed genuine (that a host would tell him to vote). Even more, it would be a good opportunity to vote Prome, or Foo, or some other guy right? But he obviously wasted it on me. If he's scum, seems like a waste opportunity. Ehhhhh....I see what you mean but then he also sets up his replacement to look like absolute shit in the opposite case. I imagine if he was scum a host would still tell him to vote, and I know I certainly wouldn't lie as either alignment. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Just popping in to say that I have been following the thread on my phone, and I wish I could have been posting during this point because I have a great deal to say---it'll have to wait until later tonight though (even though nobody will be around). I do plan on being extremely active tomorrow, so hopefully you guys will be around and don't drop off. I have maybe 5 min. Anything anyone wants that doesn't required anything in depth atm? | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 24 2014 06:41 kitaman27 wrote: Wave knows he's still going to be alive tomorrow. Only mafia know they won't get shot. ZOMG ZOMG! Troof. I slipped cuz I am most obvious D1 lynch. More slipping below: Gonzaw, I won't get a chance to talk to you it seems before you die, but GG. I may have to fight the posthumous incoming tunnel on VE that inevitably comes tomorrow, so don't yell at me too much from obs QT, k? | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 24 2014 06:44 WaveofShadow wrote: Troof. I slipped cuz I am most obvious D1 lynch. More slipping below: Gonzaw, I won't get a chance to talk to you it seems before you die, but GG. I may have to fight the posthumous incoming tunnel on VE that inevitably comes tomorrow, so don't yell at me too much from obs QT, k? LOL and I actually slipped 'cause I meant N1 kill. haha that's gonna look AMAZING | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 24 2014 06:47 gonzaw wrote: Wouldn't it be funny, if scum wanted to create WIFOM by letting me live, even after I've been saying so much that I'll die tonight? Wouldn't that be funny? Very very funny *wink* *wink* I WAS GOING TO TYPE THAT MYSELF AND THEN DECIDED AGAINST IT | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
I can't say there won't be more of it from me, but at the very least it'll be interspersed with 'better' stuff. | ||
| ||
