EPT[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 108
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 24 2014 06:26 Toadesstern wrote: From the people that seem to be worth looking into I really don't see foolishness being mafia. On January 24 2014 07:18 Toadesstern wrote: I agree with foolish's big post and think it's even more unlikely for him to be mafia now. On January 24 2014 08:22 Toadesstern wrote: I don't really see a conundrum on Foolishness to be honest. I'd rather lynch into one of you five guys than Foolish atm. I really do not think he'd behave the way he did before deadline if he knew Sandro was mafia so either he played withough knowing his alignment or he's just town. On January 24 2014 08:45 Toadesstern wrote: do you see a reason for Foolish to post the way he did when he should have known that Sand is mafia, assuming Foolish is mafia as well? Because I don't see one. Why should he defend Sand despite having him as mafia read earlier like when talking to marv over here: On January 24 2014 09:44 Toadesstern wrote: all I wanted to get across is that I don't see a foolishness-riddle or however gonzaw called it and there's no way I'm going to consider him with other people around right now and that he shouldn't be in the same category as WoS / VE / Kita right now. On January 25 2014 01:14 Toadesstern wrote: I'd actually like to take that back. No idea what I was thinking yesterday... Had the whole voteswitch happening over a longer time period in my head and after rereading some of the posts Foolish did I just don't think they're that alignment indicative as it seemed on first look. Like when he mentioned that if he's mafia he has no plan to win because he's limiting the lynch candidates. Same thing can be said about Kita and myself and VE certainly doesn't look like he's having any kind of longterm plan whatsoever either. The exception here's WoS as he still holds firmly on this prom lynch he wants to get, only ever so slightly hinting at maybe being willing to lynch Foolishness a little more but not actually doing so. checking out his filter atm, you'll get something from me in a while. On January 25 2014 04:24 Toadesstern wrote: I did ignore it in general as I was seeing the same thing from foolishness about Sandro and it was so extreme that I just thought it has to be an exaggeration until austin pointed out that is indeed weird. He has been on Sandro for a while, called him mafia and suddendly started calling the lynch bad and wasn't willing to vote him. On January 25 2014 04:36 Toadesstern wrote: the thing is, if foolishness is mafia that explains why he didn't vote Sandro despite being a very shady explanation. If Sandro and Foolish are mafia together Foolish has nothing to lose, it's either him or Sandro to get lynched, might as well just do nothing and hope that in the confusion of voteswitches Prome (assuming he's town) gets into a more favoreable position to be lynched. On January 25 2014 07:45 Toadesstern wrote: I think it makes him look bad to just drop it out of nowhere, without any kind of explanation and to do an almost 180. Just like I said when I answered it from the Sandroba point of view and if what you pointed out in your bigger post is true it's literally the same thing. Want me to repeat it? That's the reason I'm in his filter right now. He did mention BOTH Holy (aka me) and Sandro early, really early and he has been going on about it + Show Spoiler [example] + On January 23 2014 06:59 Foolishness wrote: Yes Yes As I said, my posts always accomplish something (besides the one I posted before this cause you guys frustrate me to no end). You want to run wild theories that's fine by me, but I'm pretty sure you find less mafia than I do. Yes, HolyFlare lynch is good. I find that post to be the prime example of this to be honest. So he thinks Sandro is mafia and very clearly states so, but doesn't vote him, he thinks marv is mafia, he thinks Holy is mafia and I guess he was on prome around that time already? That just doesn't make sense to me and yeah like you said he completly and utterly dropped both Holy and Sandro later on like nothing happened. On January 26 2014 01:34 Toadesstern wrote: there's literally no way for what foolish just said there to be possible. I'm bussing WoS / WoS is bussing me and whoever skates through lylo himself? You've got to be kidding me. And Gonzaw before you even start rambling, no this isn't LI all over again. Like I said to top it off the entire post + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2014 09:35 Foolishness wrote: This is from a while ago, but his posts I saw when I made that post were: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=20#381 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=21#408 And I thought these were fine at the time. A lot of you seem to think that I'm doing things 12 hours after they happened when in reality it's been a lot closer. I saw sandroba and austin both come to the thread and start posting, and I didn't post long after that (a few hours at most). As I said, my mindset was, "well they've been kinda afk so far, but as long as they keep posting I don't have an overwhelming reason to suspect them". Look at my list where I put austin and sandroba in the same category; this is exactly why. Gonzaw kinda brought this up here but let's go through these scenarios cause it's important. Scenario 1 Foolishness is mafia Promethelax is mafia Yes, after seeing that my case on WoS during day 1 didn't have as much merit as I thought at the time, I immediately decided to bus my own teammate. Not only that but I was also under scrutiny in the thread, why would I bring attention to another mafia member when I can push a case on someone else (HolyFlare? Marv maybe?). Better for me to just keep pushing on WoS or pick a new target, no sense is putting two mafia members under scrutiny on day 1. Speaking of HolyFlare, this is off topic from my current explanation but when I went back later on and reread his posts I thought he might be town. I don't even remember why but that's what I thought. I don't like reading into people getting replaced out so I focused my attention elsewhere. If HolyFlare is town I expect Toad to be able to prove it to us sooner and not later. And by sooner I mean end of night 2 at the absolute latest. Secnario 2 Foolishness is Mafia Promethelax is town This is the only scenario out of the three that the town should be worried about as I didn't want to switch to sandroba and even said so straight up (the reason I didn't want to was because I saw Marv move his vote and I was really sketchy about him at the time. I didn't like what I was seeing last minute and I got super scared it was just town derp switching onto another town). But as I pointed out in my earlier posts what is the mafia doing the entirety of day 1 when I'm accumulating votes? As gonzaw pointed out this would only make sense if the entire mafia team (but myself) is afk (so like, HolyFlare also mafia). Furthermore, if I'm mafia and Promethelax is town, then wtf is up with sandroba's vote 30 minutes before the deadline? His post wasn't a mafia post trying to save his buddy, that was a mafia pushing what he perceived to be a safe lynch to make his team look pretty for the future days after I flip town or Promethelax flips town. I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1. Scenario 3 Foolishness is Town Promethelax is mafia Why the hell did sandroba push onto Promethelax when he could have easily just been like, "yo guys I've caught Foolishness as mafia in three separate games on day 1/2, this is a free town lynch"? Doesn't make sense. Secnario 4 Foolishness is Town Promethelax is Town I brought this up before, but go back and read sandroba's case on Promethelax. After sandroba's vote both Promethelax and I had 3 votes apiece (if I'm not mistaken here). Mafia were very very very happy with the votes at this time. Town Foolishness is under scrutiny and about to get lynched, and second in line is another town who Foolishness (apparently well-known scumhunter) is 100% convinced is mafia. Wow find me a happier mafia team on day 1 in a normal or all-vanilla game. Sandroba was not throwing his vote down to save someone or push for any lynch. Mafia were happy with who was getting lynched that day and there was no need to do anything about it. THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS VERY IMPORTANT Look at this from sandroba's point of view in this scenario. The only people with votes are two townies. He drops his vote on Promethelax with the following mindset. "Let's say Foolishness gets lynched. Sweet, I just push on Promethelax the following day and tell the town, 'yeah guys you fucked that up, Foolishness is best scum-hunter NA we gotta lynch Promethelax now'. Let's say Promethelax gets lynched. Sweet, I just admit my mistake and push Foolishness the following day and tell the town, 'yeah damn sorry about that read, this guy Foolishness is definitely mafia and 100% misled the town into a bad lynch. Many people said that lynch was bad from the beginning we should never have listened to Foolishness'". No matter who got lynched sandroba was in a great position, that is until he himself got lynched instead. Sandroba's vote was not a push to get the town to do something. No, it was lazily cast knowing that both suspects were town and he could ride it through the next day. THIS SHOWS THAT PROMETHELAX IS TOWN Look at all four above scenarios. Scenario 3 makes the least amount of sense cause then sandroba's vote is an awful mistake. Scenario 1 doesn't make sense cause that means I bussed my own teammate (when I could have easily gone after WoS from the start or anyone else) and oh btw also means Promethelax bussed sandroba last minute (keep in mind him and Hapa voted 1 minute apart so in essence they both hammered that vote). The remaining two scenarios both have Promethelax as town. Because he is. Regardless of what you think of me as well, though the above and my earlier posts should prove my innocence as well. If you guys wanna spend 9 hours going down the conspiracy theory hole then cool story bro. Or you can just look at the facts and deduce the following: Town wins if WaveOfShadow, VisceraEyes, Kitaman, and Toad all die. Also my time is very limited today and tomorrow but I will try to be here when I can. What the fuck is that. On January 26 2014 01:48 Toadesstern wrote: ##unvote ##vote Foolishness In general, I find that mafia players prefer to stick to a single target, push the lynch on them until they flip, and then move onto the next target. It's possible for them to change their opinion on a player, but usually it's sudden or out of the blue. If you read through the posts I've pulled regarding Toad's views on Foolishness, he starts off with a strong town read on him, seems to admit that he has had flaws in his analysis, slowly brings Fool into consideration, and then finally comes around to a mafia read. It seems like a natural flow of events, rather than something carefully planned out. However, if Toad actually is town, then I fear we're in trouble because there is someone that I'm overlooking. What do you guys think. Does this seem like a town mindframe or do you think he is shifting his views to fit his agenda? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
I think the sum of it is, we need to kill Fool today, so let's do it. He's easily the most suspicious. ##Vote: Foolishness | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On January 28 2014 10:10 kitaman27 wrote: Mafia generally don't plan to be afk, they kinda just get lazy and stop posting. valid. And pretty sure austin has said in the past he can be like that (he'll probably verify himself). But meeeeh. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Promethelax Town in ## Mafia here Town in PYP: LoL here Town in British Empire IIhere Mafia in TL Mafia LX here Serial Killer in Carnival Cruise here "Wait, isn't this the guy you've been vouching is town for the past two cycles?" It is, but as it turns out my analysis of the day 1 votes was probably a bit hasty. After this post and the next two there is the full description of my thought process on what is happening this game. What can we say about Promethelax? Is he here playing in this game? Yes...from an administrative standpoint. But is he actually "playing" in this game? I'm not really sure anymore. He hasn't posted at all today (at the time I'm writing this which is ~15 hours into the day) and where was he yesterday? Here...but not really here. Ignore everything else in the game and tell me who does Promethelax want to lynch? Sure he wanted to kill VE yesterday, and you might vaguely remember he kinda wanted to kill myself and sandroba day 1 (we will go more indepth to that later on in this post) but who else? I had just finished reading his filter and I still didn't know, and I had to search really hard to find his list of four: "VE, fool/toad, WoS". That's not good. Why? It shows that he's not thinking about lynching mafia, even if he's thinking about the lynches himself. That comes from a mafia mindset. For us townies it's just about lynching scum scum scum and who the heck cares about anything else. If I name some of the other players in the game you can probably immediately remember who they want to kill. For example, I wanted to kill WoS then one of Kita/Toad. WoS wants to kill me and Promethelax. Toad wanted to kill WoS but now wants to kill me. Kita has wanted to kill me since the start of day 2 and wants to kill Toad. (I'm not sure if any of this information has changed since the time of writing). The difference here is that you remember who these players want to kill because they are advocating killing them in the thread, in pretty obvious ways. Is Promethelax doing that as well? Nope. Here is the post where he says who he wants to kill. This is a few hours before VE gets lynched I believe. On January 25 2014 21:14 Promethelax wrote: Okay I'm back (I was at work Gonzaw, don't you remember my awful weekend availability? It's been like this for almost as Long as I've played mafia.) since I caught up on my tablet I'm quotes but bare with me. Conclusions: WoS' activity makes him Unlynchable for me. Today. He had an awful post about him and VE both being scum that sounded like it came from a scum with VE perspective but the rest of his stuff has been decent and simply involved. If he is scum he isn't the one we will lynch today. Townier than he was at the beginning of the day though his terrible attitude towards me/sand d1 and towards VE d2 are worrisome he is near the bottom of my lynch list. Kita looks much townier today than he has in a while. The specific thing that pokes out to me is his VCA which was excellent combined with his dismissal of VCA as a reasonable reason to town read someone. He discounted the town points from his towniest post and I like that. Like WoS he is at the bottom of my potential lynch list. VE looks bad. Really bad. His rage quit didn't seem VE-y to me, it was too soft. VE is a guy I like a lot because he is full of feelings like me and lets them cloud his judgement like I do. I think VE likes me too. So if I'm right his rage quit at me/gon was really weird while I was being super nice to him and trying to draw him out of his shell. The fact that he came back with the pants-on-headiest conspiracy theory about me still being scum was weirder still. Near the top of my lynch list, not near, is the top.And yes, VE does rage quit as scum. Toad is being odd in my mind but not totally scummy. I looked at holy again and that 'too bad to be scum' post jumped out at me again. The way toad is playing reminds me of some times where I have replaced and been sorta lost so I just dicked around trying to fit in and maybe catch low hanging scum. I don't love this slot but it has some townie points. Austin looks really good from today, I really wasn't sure about his day one play but his thread policing has been solid and subtle. Last time I played with (scum) Austin he worked really hard to be noticed policing the thread and did nothing himself. This game he has done good police work and hasn't drawn undue attention to it. Fool is a pendulum of uncertainty, I had him as solid scum for a while d1 and solid town for a while n1. In some way it comes down to teams. Fool can only be scum in my head if holy/toad is. Basically the total lack of push onto me d1 was really pathetic if fool was scum and had to be because he had two lurking teammates. His posts have been okay but I a little heavy handed when it comes to saying fool is town. My lynch list, like fool's is four men long. In some semblance of order it is VE, fool/toad, WoS My first read of this post in the thread didn't raise any alarm bells, but after going through it slowly the bells started ringing. This is a very non-committal post, and it's only saving grace is the last line where he gives his lynch order. The VE explanation is good but still strangely worded. "VE looks bad. Really bad." and "And yes, VE does rage quit as scum." It only feels like he's implying that he thinks VE is mafia. He brings up the arguments (which on their own are good) but doesn't give us the bottom line. Why is this important? He doesn't want to take a hard stance and wants us to fill in the blanks for him that way he won't be held accountable in the future. And the rest of his explanations aren't great either. He says that "Toad is being odd in my mind but not totally scummy." and that "Fool is a pendulum of uncertainty" and yet Toad and myself are next in line to get lynched. That's not a townie way of playing; if someone is acting odd you suspect them and look through their filter's and find the evidence, you don't just say "they are acting odd so I want to kill them" (with some exception on day 1 of course). And his explanations for his town reads have the same issues. This shows a mafia mindset because he doesn't want to be held accountable for his reads later on. For example if I were to flip mafia he could point and say "yup, I knew he was suspicious here's the proof I said so", but if I were to flip town he could point and say, "yeah he was suspicious but I still wasn't 100% here's why". What's also disturbing is that marvellosity is strangely absent from this post. Think about list posts that townies write, usually they contain their thoughts on every player in the game, or they just contain their scum-team list. Why does he bother to write out his thoughts about all the players in the game and just not include one player? At first I thought it was because he had already told the thread he thought marvellosity was town. But that's not true if you look through his filter. He says in this post here that "Marv is less town than others for the lynch as well" but that's hardly taking a stance. The only stance he's taken on Marv is that he echoed my vote analysis on night 1 and said that the people I called town are town as well. But he never took an affirmative stance on Marv (or any other individual player as well). This is the only time he mentions what he thinks about Marv's alignment (even though he's had discussions with him) and it's not a town point of view. "But Foolishness, you've hardly taken a stance on Kita/Toad, and have even flip-flopped your reads on them, how is this any different?" The difference is in the mindset and the intent. The reason I did not take a stance was because I was sure the mafia were in the group of 4 and that WoS was mafia and after he flips I could figure out his partner. My mindset here is that "well I'm pretty sure these other players are confirmed town so I'll just sort through the rest" which is a town way of analyzing the game. Promethelax's mindset is that he doesn't want to take a stance so he won't be held accountable in the future as he watches the town run in circles trying to find mafia. These posts that he's making this game are in direct contrast to his normal town play. I'm mainly using British Empire II for comparison since that's a normal game. Look at two of his posts from that game On March 07 2013 08:24 Promethelax wrote: so with this flip we know the set up is either two named VTs or one doc+one parity cop as soon as the day post comes up I am going to ask for a full claim. We are at 7-1 and will be at 6-1 after the day post. If there is only one more blue claim and it is HoP we have two confirmed town and a pool of five to look into for scum. If there are two blue claims either doc/cop or HoP/HoP we lynch into the blues and auto win. Because of DrH's early game claim scum knows we have no useful power roles so having them out in the open doesn't hurt us. This post by Vivax feels like a bus to me, he is taking credit for a lynch which he had not voted until the hammer when it was clear we were going to hammer jay anyway and he is calling me scum bussing my buddy when anyone who knows my meta (which Vivax does) knows I am obvious town here. At this point I'd call Hapa, Artanis, DrH, Thrawn and myself confirmed town. In order of most likely the last scum is Vivax>CC=Dan unless of course the claims come out funny. So things to do today 1) all blues claim 2) lynch Vivax barring something weird in the claims Scum needs three mislynches to win, those three have to be the two town out of cc/vivax/dan and one of the obvious townies in me/thrawn/hapa/drh/artanis to get that lynch the scum needs to push the me/thrawn lynch hard today to get out of having us be even more obvious townies later in the game. He'll have to put himself out in the open to do this and will therefore die a horrible death. We need to lynch into Vivax/dan/cc in whatever order (my preference being Vivax first) and we will win. So, I ask either for scum to concede or for our slow push to victory to being with a vivax lynch. On March 06 2013 12:19 Promethelax wrote: oh, Hapa, I thought I had answered your question. But I only did it in my head. Vivax is scum because 1) meta before I explained what about his meta I found scummy. He is someone I think is good enough to change his meta when he knows what he needs to change it to. 2) He says I'm lying about him and his play but despite that clearly did not want to lynch me for it until i brought it up in the thread when suddenly Artanis/Jay/Me were all the same level of scum. I have a very hard time reconciling a townie player believing someone is lying about them to make a case not think ing that person is the scummiest person ever. 3) see 1 and 2 Vivax has done a good job adhering to his town meta later into this day though and i rather like that. AS much as I think he is good enough to do that as scum I know how hard it is. His responses to my tunnel/pressure are enough to give him some townie points. I'm now lowering him to the lynchable level of thrawn and jay. Of those three I think i prefer the lynch on jay due to his overall lurk and sheep as well as the inconsistencies in his stated day one confidence. But I'm certainly not going to hammer him yet. Note how he pushes his read on Vivax and how direct he is about it. "Vivax is scum becuase 1)... and 2)..." and his reasoning is clear and concise "because of meta play and because he's doing X which is not something a town would do". Similar in his first post where he says "things to do today: lynch Vivax and get blue claims". This kind of language is apparent through his entire town play. And that makes sense cause in his head he needs to get stuff done in order to win the game. He's thinking about the lynches in a town mindset "he's mafia because Y and Z and this is what the town is going to do to win the game". That attitude is absent from this game because he's not in that same mindset, he just needs to make sure he's in the proper town standing to survive the next two lynches so he can win the game. That means putting himself in a position so he won't be blamed or held accountable when the town mislynches. When he's mafia (in the one game I could find) he lacks that definitive voice on who he thinks should be lynched. Here's one post in particular that caught my eye: On February 26 2013 22:00 Promethelax wrote: Hey all, catching a jetplane outta here in a few minutes but I'm here right now. I'm still uncomfortable with Wade though knowing it is bh makes him less likely to be scum in my eyes. His weird d1 behaviour is weird in a blazing way, which I usually find scummy. Things I still find scummy in him: his omgus attack already mentioned, attacking me for having a changed read after I reread the thread (I get that everyone wants to get on my wagon now, its the in thing to do but assuming you do lynch me when I flip look for shoddy reasoning like Wade's), his obsession with the vet/newbie dichotomy (he is focusing on it to the exclusion of actual scum hunting) Things I find townie: his confidence and casual tone ("for all you know I'm warbaby" and "so no real opinions then") conclusion: keep an eye on, not a good day one lynch JJ on the other hand is looking scummier (again this only works for me but once I flip go back and look at my reads k thx) I am under a lot of pressure now and most/all of the vets and smurfs (i.e. probable vets want to lynch me) and yet JJ comes in and says I am town for no reason. He has a reason. He just won't share it. It looks to me like a scummer trying to gain a little cred on a mislynch while also not actually derail the lynch. This is his whole interaction with me/comment on me before his sudden defense conclusion: probably scum, would lynch. I'm heading out of town and will have limited internet access. I will post when I can. Good luck town! Even the language almost looks the same to some of his posts this game. Notice how different he is compared to his town game where he's pushing on Vivax. Against Vivax he was very direct "he's mafia cause X and Y" and here he's just pointing out things he thinks are scummy without incriminating him. Exactly what a mafia wants to do. I quoted the game where he's Serial Killer because I noticed the same kind of non-committal posts as well: On May 14 2013 01:23 Promethelax wrote: I've been trying to decide what I think about that claim SnB. The way I figure it though we'll be able to tell what happens because if Oats posts his own vote (which he has done) the vote stealing isn't active. If Oats' vote moves without him posting about it his vote has either been stolen or he has a way to vote through PM. I think I mentioned this already but Oats' calling the DP shot a vig shot seems like a likely town slip to me. It depends on how many KP scum actually has obviously but it seems very likely that scum have two (or more, this is an Ace game after all) kp in this set up. Since Chaoser is the only RB claim I'm assuming that Kita JK'd him last night. Interestingly that means that either scum don't have a RB or that RB was stacked on Chaoser. All players who have been roleblocked need to claim obviously but with only one claimed RB I'll assume that was Kita. On May 15 2013 00:30 Promethelax wrote: Yeah WoS was made out of town in that game. I think though that the dissonance we're seeing comes from no longer being a newbie. When you think of yourself as bad and offer yourself up to die its one thing but WoS has been around long enough to get an ego about mafia. We all do eventually. That ego explains a lot... I don't see WoS being scum based on that. Actually its a point more towards the town side of things as I can understand his play if I assume he has gained the ego of bh in the last few months. If WoS is being an egotistical maniac his angry play makes a lot of sense. Look at recent Yamato rage or something similar. This is starting to read as the reaction of someone who thinks they are better than those accusing them simply because those people are accusing them. Which makes sense as Serial Killer because he has his own agenda and getting lynched is usually the thing you're most afraid of as 3rd party. Again the language is eerily similar to his mafia play and his play this game, "I think this guy is town..." whereas when he's town he just tells everyone straight up, "we're lynching Vivax" and "all blues are claiming now cause town will win". By looking through his town filters you will see on the whole that he's more aggressive, direct, and vulgar when he's town. This makes sense when looking at the posts I quoted above; he wants to get shit done and lynch mafia and ain't nothin' gonna stand in his way! But as mafia he's much more mild-mannered because that motivation is all gone. He has no need to be aggressive, push his reads (whatever they are) or do what's best for the town. Instead he wants to make sure he can just survive enough lynches until he wins the game, by being non-committal and ensuring the spotlight is not on him. The most damning piece of evidence proving Promethelax is mafia occurs when he's voting on day 1. First off, he is the last person to vote for me on day 1 and his reasoning for doing so is quite questionable: On January 23 2014 07:22 Promethelax wrote: I keep wanting to think you are town but you come up with bullshit like this that isn't even remotely true. I cannot believe that town foolishness actually believes these things as they are not remotely true. ##unvote ##vote: foolishness I simply cannot connect the idea of foolishness being a good town player and him being town while saying things so blatantly false about so many players in this game. Note that he votes me because I said something about marvellosity (which is true to my knowledge from the game him and I have played) that he claims is not true. Why just say I'm wrong instead of showing or telling me I'm wrong? His vote is a "you're wrong, therefore you are mafia" argument, which we all know is a bogus reason to vote for someone. Keep in mind that 7 hours earlier in the day in his post here he claims that "I do find Foolish townier from this post since his reads are generally good". And now he decides that I'm worth voting for even though he had a town read on me? This doesn't line up. Even moreso because he votes me because I said something that was apparently not true about marvellosity (even though he has never proved me wrong on my statement). No, he voted for me on purpose because he was next in line to get lynched and he wanted to ensure that I got the noose instead, even if it contradicted his earlier reason. And then shortly thereafter in this post here he says that his lynch order is: holy, fool, Kita, sand, Austin. I'm bothered by this because I'm second and sandroba is fourth. Where's the push on HolyFlare if he's his top scum candidate? Now the big blow comes when he posts the following: On January 23 2014 07:44 Promethelax wrote: I find fool likelier scum than sand. Sand pulls this shit as town while fool hasn't done so in my experience. I wouldn't be unhappy with a sand list, it isn't my preference but I wouldn't hate it. On January 23 2014 07:55 Promethelax wrote: Also I'm an easy mislynch target in this group. Me and holyflare are probably the weakest 'name brand' players here. Guys who don't have a reputation which people refuse to lynch on. I would like to think that at least one scum is on my lynch right now, since I know I'm town and I haven't come out of the gate terribly strongly. Gonzaw: if you want me to lynch sand over fool I'll do it. I trust you right now and if you feel terribly strongly about that lynch over the case you've been pushing all day I can follow you on it. On January 23 2014 08:00 Promethelax wrote: Yes. I find sand likelier town than fool but I'm not confident and Gonzaw who has been convincing in his foolish case says he sees sand as scum. Hold on a second! What the heck is he doing with his vote? First he votes me for questionable reasons, then when it comes to vote switch time he contradicts himself. He says that I'm a better lynch than sandroba, has me on his scum list much higher than sandroba (sandroba just looks like a passing thought on his list "yeah he's suspicious but whatever...") and then says that Gonzaw's case on me is convincing. Even ignoring his vote on me, what townie says that I'm mafia, says the case on me is convincing, has the opportunity to probably get me lynched and then tosses his vote elsewhere? That's not right at all. His voting pattern makes zero sense as a town perspective, and his reasoning for why it happened is even more question, "yep the case on Foolishness is great but I'm voting elsewhere cause some guy said so". That vote switch was hella shady from my perspective (which is why I said it was bad) especially cause last minute vote switches usually result in a random townie getting lynched (and I say this full well knowing that I was going to be lynched instead). No, there is something else going on here. His vote was not moving around because he was a town going after his targets, his vote was moving around with a specific purpose. He knew exactly what he was doing when his vote moved to his mafia buddy sandroba, that is clear. Summary Promethelax is not pushing his reads or being very direct in the thread. He's not taking a stance and not trying to get people lynched. Rather he has a very mild-mannered attitude, which is reminiscent in his mafia and 3rd party play and not in his town play. His voting on day 1 shows that he is not voting for the benefit of the town but rather has a specific agenda in mind. ##Vote: Promethelax | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Mr. Kita Town in TL Mafia LV here Town in Roulette Mini here Town in Aperture 2 here Mafia in TL Mafia LXII: Noir here Mafia in The Game here Mafia in here Let's outline the differences between Kita's town and mafia play on a broad scale. When Kita is mafia, he is sly and manipulative and tries to be very convincing. He pushes the bad lynches and will throw down analysis on them to make him look like the good guy. When he's town, he's more fresh and upbeat, with a light hearted attitude and he's not afraid to speak his mind and do some good analysis on his reads. There is a clear distinction between posting patterns as well. Put simply, if Kita is mafia expect more paragraphs and if he is town expect lots of one-liners in between all the analysis. I think his mafia play in The Game is a really good example of how he goes about things. If you scroll through it while skimming you will notice that all his posts are paragraphs and paragraphs long. There is the occasional one-liner tossed in (as of course everyone posts one-liners) but his average post length must be a good 5 or 6 paragraphs. That's a lot of writing for each individual post. The other two games as mafia I linked above have more one-liners, but you still see that on average his posts are paragraphs long. More importantly, this is always true on day 1. On later days the one-liners will come out by on day 1 you get the paragraphs. Now, compare this to his town play. In Roulette Mini on day 1 he had two posts that were paragraphs long and ~40 one-liners. In Aperture 2 it doesn't even look like he made a long post at all on day 1. Mafia LV he has the long posts but there's a clear distinction because there are much more one-liners in between them all. I'm bringing up the fact that this is especially true on day 1 because he's so consistent about it. Even still, on the average it holds true for him across the whole game. If you look at his town games you see that there are an abundance of one-liners in between all his long posts. When he's mafia these one-liners just don't appear very often. Though I have not specifically counted numbers, I would wager that his post count per day is lower when he is mafia than when he is town. Of course if you look at the current game you will see immediately that he has the one-liners in between his big paragraph posts. This holds true on day 1 as well where he goes twenty four hours before making his first big post accusing sandroba. Why does this all matter? The reason that he has this difference in his posting behavior between his town and mafia games is a direct cause of how he plays the game. As I stated in the first paragraph, when he's mafia he's very convincing at pushing lynches and pushing a mafia agenda. But when he's town he has a more upbeat attitude and has no fear of the town. This correlates directly with the posting behavior outlined above. As mafia, he's pushing an agenda and making the town run in circles. He doesn't need to (nor does he probably want to) post one-liners to the town. Instead he's giving you paragraphs of very convincing arguments why person X should be lynched. However, as a town Kita has no fear of what the town thinks of him, so he will just post what's on his mind when it happens. This comes out in his one-liners as town. Yes, Kita's town play is known to have solid analysis and of course we expect that in his posts. But in between those posts where he's gathering information and doing research he will post to the thread. And what I've just stated above comes through in his one-liner posting. This is where Kita's true intentions come to light. To start, I've gone ahead and pulled some of Kita's short posts from the current game. We'll compare them to his posts from his mafia games and town games. On January 21 2014 09:31 kitaman27 wrote: Not much of a plan if you're going to warn people about what you're looking for. ##Vote Sandroba (Did you catch me?) On January 21 2014 11:00 kitaman27 wrote: He tried to warn people to be careful with how they enter the thread. You should have listened! On January 22 2014 00:56 kitaman27 wrote: Seven pages over the first 17 hours is pretty weak. -_- Since I don't believe we've crossed paths before HolyFlare, lets chat. I'll let you choose the topic. On January 23 2014 05:49 kitaman27 wrote: I think marv, sandroba, Prom is my personal top three right now. If foolishness is mafia with someone like VE/Holy, he is doing a great job at appealing to my interests XD On January 26 2014 10:39 kitaman27 wrote: Uhh oh gonzaw, I think he might have just put a hit on you  I wish we had a blue role or two. All vanilla setups are so harsh. What can we say about these types of posts? His attitude certainly isn't serious, he's poking fun at a lot of different people while speaking whatever silly thing is on his mind. Now you might say, "well wait aren't these kinda posts scummy? He's not really accomplishing anything or giving us anything concrete." That is a reasonable thing to think (and sure on their own that is probably true), but it's about the intent and mindset that Kita has when making these posts that's important as that is what shows if someone is mafia. I'm going to pull some of his one-liner posts from his mafia games: On February 14 2013 09:49 kitaman27 wrote: lol again you show up only when I reference you -_- What exactly don't you understand? Is there anyone that you are suspicious of yet? On February 15 2013 08:59 kitaman27 wrote: A few extra votes will help to ensure the lynch. I'm always paranoid about a majority lynch setup where mafia might have vote altering mechanics. On March 26 2013 09:19 kitaman27 wrote: It seems like a lot of players are around, yet unwilling to comment on the situation. We aren't going to solve things with just me and cosmic yelling at each other. On October 04 2013 04:32 kitaman27 wrote: Actually, now that I think about it. All seven town need to be voting together or we lose. A single misplaced vote allows the mafia to decide the lynch, assuming they can manipulate the tiebreaker. Notice that all his one-liners are related to in-game happenings or directly asking someone a relevant question about their reads and thoughts. Does he have some trolly one-liners as well? Sure, but no where close to the same in number as when he's town. Keep in mind I'm pulling these quotes by going to a random place in his filter and just looking at the first one-liner I see. Compare these to some of his town one-liners: On June 01 2012 08:07 kitaman27 wrote: Dang it VE, you distracted me from pushing my true target, Zealos! On June 09 2013 03:01 kitaman27 wrote: That would be the best scenario. Guaranteed 10v2 with all this blues? I'd take it in a heartbeat. On September 04 2013 00:23 kitaman27 wrote: I've always thought that's a silly rule. If you come to a conclusion based on knowledge that is available to you, you shouldn't be forced to keep it secret -_- The difference in behavior is immediately clear. What's more important is that this fits his mentality I laid out above. When he's town he's more upbeat and speaks his mind, even if it's a troll post. As mafia all his posts have a distinct purpose as he is pushing his agenda. It's definitely the case that this game is Kitaman's town game. He fits his town mindset, not his mafia one. Do you see him this game posting with a specific agenda? Is he trying to manipulate the lynches? Do you see him posting paragraph after paragraph after paragraph? No. Is Kita actively trying to figure things out? Yes. Is he speaking his mind and writing silly things? Yes. That is why Kita is town. In summary: Kitaman is Town, because he is trying to figure things out and posting his thoughts instead of writing paragraphs of convincing arguments to push an agenda. This is seen in his overall posting behavior as well as specifically in the one-liners that he writes. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
The Holy-Toad Empire It is clear that The Holy-Toad Empire is making a lot of people (including myself) nervous in this thread. After all, Empire's are evil. I'm going to establish a connection between the two. For those of you that want the tl;dr, Toad is town as indicated by the title color. Since Holy was only around for a day there's not much to go through with him, but the results are very convincing. There are four games worth comparing his behavior toward: Town In Newbie Mini Mafia XLVI here Town In II Titanic Mini here Mafia In TL Mafia LXIII here Mafia In Back To The Basics Mini Mafia here ----- The first thing to take into account with him is post length. This game he has written paragraphs (when he wrote something). Think back to HolyFlare on day 1, do you remember him posting a one-liner? I sure as heck don't. Do you remember him having only like 10 posts which were all paragraphs long? Yup. In the filters above you'll notice this is very consistent with his town play. The best comparison is in Back to the Basics Mini (where he's mafia) where his filter looks like a Marvellosity or Coagulation filter. His only long posts come once every page or so and the rest are one-liners. In Titanic (town) his first twenty posts are mostly paragraphs long. Sure, this in itself is nice but only makes him lean slightly town right? Take a look through the contents of his posts this game. Think back to what he was posting on day 1. You'll probably remember that all his posts are super serious. He's not joking or dicking around, he's not laughing, he's telling us things straight up. This is actually in line with his town play, and comes through most effectively when you look at the one-liners that he does post. For example, in our current game, what are the few one-liners that he posts? Here's a few: On January 21 2014 17:49 Holyflare wrote: Why did you feel the need to justify your new read on VE (based on meta) with a quote from foolish saying you are both town? Only to then ask him to only elaborate on wave and not the reasons he thinks you are both town? Free town cred is nice but not if the person it's coming from is questionable. On January 21 2014 23:07 Holyflare wrote: Why Foolishness over sandroba? They have both posted nothing. Your goal is clearly to lynch a lurker today so why are you going to ignore the rest of what has happened on day 1 when your intentions are already set in stone? On January 22 2014 06:16 Holyflare wrote: Maybe if you saw my previous posts to gonzaw you'd understand my contempt at him directing his attention to foolishness and ignoring the rest of the game. To then see that post on my return, what do you think my initial reaction would be? It is most definitely, "wtf is this guy wasting his time for if he's town". There is a whole game to discuss here. On January 21 2014 23:14 Holyflare wrote: There is clearly more than 1 scum in this game. If he has found 1 why has he got the intention to not read to find another? What can we say about these posts? Asking a lot of questions about what's going on in the game yes (and I think some people pointed this out and were suspicious of him for it). But do note this is indicative of his town play because he's focusing on the game and gathering information. Maybe he's not asking the right questions, and I can see how someone might be after him for asking questions instead of giving answers, but when you put it in context of his mindset it makes perfect sense that he's town. He's getting information and poking people. By comparison, I pulled some one-liners from his two mafia games. Where applicable I pulled quotes that are from the beginning of his entrance of the game. On November 23 2013 11:47 Holyflare wrote: I'm kidding of course i knew it isnt +1 you tit On November 23 2013 11:50 Holyflare wrote: How about you use some logic before you insult my claim On November 24 2013 10:20 Holyflare wrote: Hey look it's jarjar, the guy people think is scum asking me to claim so he can now kill me, yay? On November 15 2013 12:07 Holyflare wrote: Also slam has been 10000000000% different to any other game I have played with him/seen him in. On November 15 2013 12:07 Holyflare wrote: aaaaandddd yeh it's like 5 fucking pages later of course -.- On November 15 2013 12:50 Holyflare wrote: Yamato is a smelly fart head. I want him to make a square with us though :O! The difference is monumental. When he's mafia he's more or a troll and more abrasive. He's just posting thoughts that come to his mind without a care in the world. But that's the problem because there's no motivation behind them. When he posts when he's town there's a clear plan in his head: he's gathering information and making connections. He's asking people questions to see where they stand and what their motivations are. When he's mafia there is none of that going on. He's posting cause he has to post something. Another thing to note is that he's most abrasive when he's mafia. That serious tone is absent and he's not afraid to call people idiots. This is apparent when he calls someone a tit and Yamato a "smelly fart head" (tee hee sorry Yamato I love you ). But his attitude is different when he's town. He doesn't care about calling people idiots because he has mafia to find, and he knows that calling someone a "smelly fart head" won't help you determine if they are mafia but asking someone a question about what their reads are will. This distinction in his mindset makes perfect sense: if he's town he's got to figure things out, so he asks questions and is seriously playing the game. If he's mafia there's nothing to figure out, so he doesn't need to take the game seriously and is more emotional in his posting.The last crucial piece of concluding evidence is what he's looking at in his big posts. I quoted two posts from our current game here: + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2014 22:05 Holyflare wrote: You used a post from a player that has had 0 contribution to the game as a platform for you to further your paradigm of VE. Not only is that strange but you do not question HOW he could have those reads (something you absolutely should because how else do you learn about another player's mindset?) The only thing you question is his read on wave. You should absolutely not be happy when someone calls you or someone else town for no reasoning and should be questioning it as you have been questioning mostly everything for the entirety of the game. As for the rest of the thread: I don't understand why this conversation was ended around here. We absolutely should be pushing everyone and not letting them ignore posts and accusations directed at them. It's a team game where we have to demonstrate our townieness to each other. Why should we let a player not participate in the game just because he gets better later when in fact we have the potential to learn more about his alignment today? This sentiment was echoed by hapa BUT THEN TOTALLY CONTRADICTED AS WELL. I don't understand the mindset behind this. You suggest we find his alignment by way of pressure but then give into the sentiment of other players of which you do not know the alignment of and say that we should not pressure him because he won't respond instead of taking the initiative of your confirmed alignment to yourself and pressuring sandroba yourself. This isn't something a townie mindset does at all. I'm interested to hear your reasoning before I put my vote down on you though because there's no reason being hasty. That being said the thing that stuck out to me the most was VE's posts and vote on Prome. I actually agree with much of what he has said and I do not get the motive behind happa's line of questioning. Hapa mentioned: Why do you assume that it is retroactive justification instead of new evidence coming to light after a troll vote? What he was saying made sense and prome's opening post seemed like it was pre-written before he even read any of the game. I'll get into this later when I have the time and get back but for now I'll leave you to talk about what i've said above. + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2014 03:58 Holyflare wrote: it's quite simple, i don't need to make excuses. If you read my previous games like I told you to and you quite clearly haven't you'd know the length I'd go to as either alignment to make cases and read filters. I'm subbing out because I don't have the time to play with my current situation and I can't effectively play in the time constraints I have. You make the argument that I just spent my time defending but I justified why I tried to do that, if I have no time to read filters it should be quite clear why my mindset hasn't evolved. This is your biggest problem this game. You have rationalised me as scum and so your mindset is that everything I do is with the intent of a scummer. However, you don't try and rationalise it as a townie that is under attack and just has no time to play. Don't take my being present as reason for "should be able to contribute", defending takes 0 time at all because I can just tell you my mindset. Either way, if I was scum I wouldn't ask to be subbed because who cares, I die in a game full of good players and get on with my life? I am not allowed to sub till the end of the day and so it is my intention that a player with more time can take my spot and portray my alignment to you far better than me in my current situation. What I noticed in these two posts and the rest of his filter this game is that he talks a lot about "mindsets". He mentions his own mindset "this is what I am thinking and why". He mentions other's mindset, e.g. in that last post I quoted he says, "You have rationalised me as scum and so your mindset is that everything I do is with the intent of a scummer." And he will also mention mindsets in general, "this is not a mindset a townie has". Why is this important? Because it's congruent with a town's way of thinking. In analyzing why a player might be mafia he wants to consider what motivation they have and what's going through their brain. I like his play in Titanic Mini and you'll find that he makes posts like these: On December 10 2013 12:45 Holyflare wrote: I want to understand more about artanis. Why do you think it is confirmation biased compared to the alternative assumption of being correct? What mindset could someone have to discuss one person based on meta but then ignore another person based on meta without discussion? where he's discussing a player's mindset and figuring out what they are trying to accomplish. In fact if you want quick proof, just ctrl+f the word mindset in each of the games I linked above. With the exception of the Newbie Game you'll see that he uses this word a lot when he's town and very little when he's mafia. That's because when he's mafia he has zero reason to figure out someone's mindset or behavior. He knows what everyone's mindset is already if he's mafia cause he knows who the mafia is. There's no reason to figure out what's going through a person's head, he just needs to project town so he doesn't get lynched. When he's town he has every reason to be questioning people So yes, HolyFlare is definitely playing his town game, and we were all wrong to suspect him. What about Toad? After all the case is not complete unless we know he's playing his town game as well. One post that Toad has made so far really stood out to me: On January 25 2014 06:58 Toadesstern wrote: you do realize that I replaced in for Holyflare? I know his / my alignment, why would I care to read his filter. I don't intent to carry over his reads either so no need to know that, if that happened as WoS pointed out it's a mere coincidence and people thinking alike because I have literally not read a single post from him except for stuff quoted by other people. So why would I want to spent some hours to read that as well instead of getting through the thread as fast as possible or reading up on other things that are actually interesting, like the voteswitch period or people I consider to be scummy. Now you might think, "well this could come from a town or a mafia...it makes sense for a replacement to not read their earlier posts". And that is true. However if you look at the intention between why he did that you will see that he has a town perspective. Toad says "I don't intent to carry over his reads" and that the "voteswitch period" is interesting. This is a townie frame of mind. He doesn't care about HolyFlare's post cause he has to figure out who is mafia and what the hell happened during the vote switch. HolyFlare's opinions on who is mafia is irrelevant when he needs to figure things out for the town. This would be contrasted to a mafia replacing in in the following way. If Toad was mafia and didn't read his filter, his reasonings would probably encompass some persuasion to us about why he didn't. I would think he would say something to the effect of, "don't read his posts I have no idea what he was doing or why" or, "don't take his posts seriously cause he had to get replaced out, just listen to me". The mindset is different because he doesn't want us figuring out that HolyFlare is mafia. Instead he wants to save himself and make us focus on his current posting. But this game he doesn't care about that, he's got a job to do and that's to figure out mafia. I was having difficulty finding history on Toad, if there is a game where he is mafia that is more recent I want it. Town In "SMB" Mini here Mafia in Pick Your Poison here The immediate point to make is that his mafia game featured very generic looking posts such as this one: On June 01 2012 01:10 Toadesstern wrote: Well the game only now started and I probably look like I don't care right now as well as I'm not posting at all. The thing is that we're lacking activity right now, we haven't even got an update from everyone what they've voted and we need that. What's the point in talking about those things when people aren't even in here telling us what they voted? I'm a bit happy this game is slow so that I don't have so much to read because I'm also in another game which is quite a lot to read but come on, we really need some updates here. Frankly so far the discussion was very light. We talked about stuff that is very easy to have different opionions about. As mentioned I said I consider the RB less dangerous than a framer. Other people said they think otherwise and as mentioned, that's stuff you can easily talk about as mafia. We need to get something real to talk about and the votes would be a nice start. So basicly while I've got some things I like about different people I have to take everything with a grain of salt because everything that was said so far could perfectly be the truth for everyone, no matter of alignment. Maybe mafia lied to try and influence people into giving them what they think is more dangerous but it could just be that mafia told the truth as well making it really hard to judge people based on what happened d0. Long story short: Get in here. I want those votes. This post would serve to define what constitutes a fluff post. What is even saying in this post? It seems like he's just reporting on things that have happened so far, while also apologizing for looking bad. It is forced in the sense that he needed to post and say something but didn't know what. Normally we expect Toad to just give us what's in his head straight up, even if it is a crazy theory. You expect something like this post from his town game: On January 17 2014 03:43 Toadesstern wrote: okay I'm back and now at my parents place. Sorry for the screw up earlier. I had some time to read on the train until my phone told me I crossed my mobile-data limit but I now got the time to explain a little more in detail what I was getting at. Yes I agree with rayn that the majority of the skanjab "case" wasn't anything and I wouldn't even call anything like that a case but I picked out the very last point because I thought and still think it's legit. The one thing that comes out of my towngames is that I've got a bunch of reads, the townreads are usually always right, the mafia reads are all over the place except for the ones that are based on phrasing, wording and attitude. Last game I played as town: I told people to lynch Xatalos 3 hours into the game and that I'd shoot him if I was a dayvig so certain was I about him being mafia because he wrote in that special fashion. Obviously flipped mafia and I got modkilled. The game before that: Marv got mayor, I got 2nd in place, we had 3 people whe thought were scummy and were in conversation with bugs in mason chat. Basicly marv said guy A is the best lynch, bugs and me said guy B is the best lynch, another guy said Guy C is the best lynch and my reasoning, again was on the guy talking/writing the way he did. End of story, all 3 flipped mafia and we fought about nothing. Last game, the one I was mafia but had reads before knowing my alignment: The only teammade I gave mafiapoints to was Xatalos, again for his phrasing and wording early on. The rest of my teammades hadn't posted up to that point btw. So as you can see, the vast majority of the my right reads are "weak" reads that are based on phrasing/attitude, I'm only really wrong on that when talking about VE because that dude is all over the place. I still think that one point of Skanjab1s "case" is legit and I do think the phrasing is way off and it makes him a good target right now. I've got someone who probably outright claimed mafia in one of his earlier posts of the game, but rayn will hate me for that because he missunderstood the situation and therefore has a townread on said guy, so I'll wait a little to be more certain about it  This is a long Toad post that explains where his head is at and what his reads are. No fluff or filer at all. What compliments this is a sense of urgency in his post writing. When you read his filter this game you notice that he's really trying hard to get things straight. This behavior probably half comes from replacing in and half because he has to figure things out so he can lynch mafia. I call it a sense of urgency, but you may also read it as aggressive posting and you may also notice how direct his posting is. I think this post is a prime example of his town play: On January 26 2014 01:34 Toadesstern wrote: there's literally no way for what foolish just said there to be possible. I'm bussing WoS / WoS is bussing me and whoever skates through lylo himself? You've got to be kidding me. And Gonzaw before you even start rambling, no this isn't LI all over again. Like I said to top it off the entire post + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2014 09:35 Foolishness wrote: This is from a while ago, but his posts I saw when I made that post were: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=20#381 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=21#408 And I thought these were fine at the time. A lot of you seem to think that I'm doing things 12 hours after they happened when in reality it's been a lot closer. I saw sandroba and austin both come to the thread and start posting, and I didn't post long after that (a few hours at most). As I said, my mindset was, "well they've been kinda afk so far, but as long as they keep posting I don't have an overwhelming reason to suspect them". Look at my list where I put austin and sandroba in the same category; this is exactly why. Gonzaw kinda brought this up here but let's go through these scenarios cause it's important. Scenario 1 Foolishness is mafia Promethelax is mafia Yes, after seeing that my case on WoS during day 1 didn't have as much merit as I thought at the time, I immediately decided to bus my own teammate. Not only that but I was also under scrutiny in the thread, why would I bring attention to another mafia member when I can push a case on someone else (HolyFlare? Marv maybe?). Better for me to just keep pushing on WoS or pick a new target, no sense is putting two mafia members under scrutiny on day 1. Speaking of HolyFlare, this is off topic from my current explanation but when I went back later on and reread his posts I thought he might be town. I don't even remember why but that's what I thought. I don't like reading into people getting replaced out so I focused my attention elsewhere. If HolyFlare is town I expect Toad to be able to prove it to us sooner and not later. And by sooner I mean end of night 2 at the absolute latest. Secnario 2 Foolishness is Mafia Promethelax is town This is the only scenario out of the three that the town should be worried about as I didn't want to switch to sandroba and even said so straight up (the reason I didn't want to was because I saw Marv move his vote and I was really sketchy about him at the time. I didn't like what I was seeing last minute and I got super scared it was just town derp switching onto another town). But as I pointed out in my earlier posts what is the mafia doing the entirety of day 1 when I'm accumulating votes? As gonzaw pointed out this would only make sense if the entire mafia team (but myself) is afk (so like, HolyFlare also mafia). Furthermore, if I'm mafia and Promethelax is town, then wtf is up with sandroba's vote 30 minutes before the deadline? His post wasn't a mafia post trying to save his buddy, that was a mafia pushing what he perceived to be a safe lynch to make his team look pretty for the future days after I flip town or Promethelax flips town. I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1. Scenario 3 Foolishness is Town Promethelax is mafia Why the hell did sandroba push onto Promethelax when he could have easily just been like, "yo guys I've caught Foolishness as mafia in three separate games on day 1/2, this is a free town lynch"? Doesn't make sense. Secnario 4 Foolishness is Town Promethelax is Town I brought this up before, but go back and read sandroba's case on Promethelax. After sandroba's vote both Promethelax and I had 3 votes apiece (if I'm not mistaken here). Mafia were very very very happy with the votes at this time. Town Foolishness is under scrutiny and about to get lynched, and second in line is another town who Foolishness (apparently well-known scumhunter) is 100% convinced is mafia. Wow find me a happier mafia team on day 1 in a normal or all-vanilla game. Sandroba was not throwing his vote down to save someone or push for any lynch. Mafia were happy with who was getting lynched that day and there was no need to do anything about it. THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS VERY IMPORTANT Look at this from sandroba's point of view in this scenario. The only people with votes are two townies. He drops his vote on Promethelax with the following mindset. "Let's say Foolishness gets lynched. Sweet, I just push on Promethelax the following day and tell the town, 'yeah guys you fucked that up, Foolishness is best scum-hunter NA we gotta lynch Promethelax now'. Let's say Promethelax gets lynched. Sweet, I just admit my mistake and push Foolishness the following day and tell the town, 'yeah damn sorry about that read, this guy Foolishness is definitely mafia and 100% misled the town into a bad lynch. Many people said that lynch was bad from the beginning we should never have listened to Foolishness'". No matter who got lynched sandroba was in a great position, that is until he himself got lynched instead. Sandroba's vote was not a push to get the town to do something. No, it was lazily cast knowing that both suspects were town and he could ride it through the next day. THIS SHOWS THAT PROMETHELAX IS TOWN Look at all four above scenarios. Scenario 3 makes the least amount of sense cause then sandroba's vote is an awful mistake. Scenario 1 doesn't make sense cause that means I bussed my own teammate (when I could have easily gone after WoS from the start or anyone else) and oh btw also means Promethelax bussed sandroba last minute (keep in mind him and Hapa voted 1 minute apart so in essence they both hammered that vote). The remaining two scenarios both have Promethelax as town. Because he is. Regardless of what you think of me as well, though the above and my earlier posts should prove my innocence as well. If you guys wanna spend 9 hours going down the conspiracy theory hole then cool story bro. Or you can just look at the facts and deduce the following: Town wins if WaveOfShadow, VisceraEyes, Kitaman, and Toad all die. Also my time is very limited today and tomorrow but I will try to be here when I can. What the fuck is that. Why? Because this kind of urgent, aggressive style is completely absent when he's mafia. Yes he will push reads and try to get lynches done as mafia, but the style is completely different. He made this post when he was mafia: + Show Spoiler + On June 03 2012 10:59 Toadesstern wrote: We lynch Prplhz today Here's why: I consider that mafia agenda. "It is very important for town that we know what role we give to eliminate confusion"? Yeah we eliminate mafia confusion by telling them what they'll get so they can counter pick, That's a lot of people he's willing to lynch without saying a thing about them except for wbg. The "case" on wbg was "WBG hasn't posted, therefore he has to be mafia because he doesn't care about the game" while at least half the players in this game had very few posts at that time. The rest is a bunch of mentions without actually saying why and I already said what I think about stuff like that: Looks like people testing watertemperature with their toes to check out what can get momentum without doing something themselves. Furthermore Navilus apparently was on his radar for not posting a lot, just like risk yet later on he says Nav not posting is a sign for townieness? Will come to that next but that's really odd. Navilus defense #1 The reasoning here basicly is: "He never played mafia before. I think he would know better than to hide like that with only 2 posts." I'd consider that a contradiction. Everyone knows people who play mafia for the first time and what's the most frequent mistake those people make? They're not posting because they're scared and trying to hide to hard. At least that's how I have seen most people play their first time game as mafia. This defense makes no sense from a townie point of view no matter who nav was talking about in his two posts. Navilus defense #2 Again. He says that first time scums mosty try not to stick out, as in they usually want to hide, yet he says "he absolutely knows how to do this better than this". How in the world do you know he can do better than this if he never played mafia before? How do you know he's not scared to post like most mafias are in their first game? Again, this defense makes so sense from a town point of view. Remember his posts from earlier? Sure wbg is not backing up a thing but he's giving his basic thoughts. Now look back a bit and check out the posts prplhz did when he wanted to hear oppinions / accused people. He said nothing, he simply mentioned the names except for the WBG "case". That's as hypocritical as it can get. Probably the weakest explanation for a vote I've ever seen. "sup guys. THAT GUY IS TOWN SHUT UP.... Oh, I guess he hasn't said he's sorry for being afk so long. Probably means he's mafia" Fancy conclusion:
Lynch Prplhz please, thanks. Now you might say, "wait this post doesn't look half bad in itself". And that is true, but you have to consider who it is coming from. This is the "all hail king Toad" we are talking about, who is not afraid to speak his mind and tell others that he's right. This analysis on prplhz may be great, but that's not something that Toad writes. That post almost looks like something I would write, with colors and a summary and trying to explain where the mafia agenda is (which he does semi-poorly). That's not Toad, and that's not how Toad finds and lynches mafia, and it's definitely not how Toad convinces the town that he's right. This game is a good example of town Toad. Posting his thoughts, even though he's changing them (remember he comes into the thread saying that I'm town and then is tying my noose at lynch time). You can see his thought process the whole way forward, and you never are left wondering where he stands on an issue. That is the town Toad. In summary: HolyFlare was playing his town game. Seen because he was super serious and questing people and figuring out players' mindsets, instead of being abrasive and semi-trolling. Toad is playing his town game. Seen because he's actively trying to figure things out and push his lynches, instead of giving generic advice. ALL HAIL THE HOLY-TOAD EMPIRE | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
It is as it appears, Promethelax is mafia and Toad and Kita are both town for the reasons stated in each of their posts. When I saw your name appear in the thread, I was expecting a Nobel-Prize winning essay on why WaveOfShadow is mafia...but I don't see his name, what gives? Put simply, I don't think he's mafia and I don't want to lynch him. If I'm going to be brutally honest, I still have this nagging doubt in my mind that he's mafia but the evidence shows that that's not who the town should be lynching. He doesn't fit the bill. So then why are these three players in your analysis and not *insert other player here*? Let me explain the order of events. I removed myself from the thread because I wasn't getting anywhere defending myself against gonzaw and others and my mind was not in the proper place to scumhunt. After clearing my head I came back and reread the thread and tried to reaffirm my suspicions on WoS and the general course of the game. Since VE flipped town if my theories about the four being mafia were true I should be able to deduce which of the remainder (between Kita and Toad) is mafia. Since WoS was still hovering over my head I decided to start by analyzing Toad, thinking I could prove a connection between him and WoS while showing that Toad is exhibiting his mafia behavior. After determining that Toad and HolyFlare are both town (see analysis above) my thought process was immediately, "okay, WoS and Kitaman are mafia together. It fits the day 1 votes, it fits my theories (which are getting stranger admittedly) we are good". Knowing that I'd need that essay about why WoS is mafia I did another hard analysis of him. That meant, reading his filter, reading his filter again, and reading all of his past games as town and mafia (the one game that there is). At the end, I couldn't find anything conclusive about why he would be mafia this game. Sure, I have small arguments here and there: "here's a bad post WoS made, here's some posts that don't correlate with his town play, here's some logic that could come from a mafia mindset", but it lacked consistency and meat. I started writing a nice analysis of why he's mafia but didn't get very far. Since I couldn't get anything concrete I decided to look at Kitaman. In a sense I was approaching the WoS-mafia train from different angles since looking at him directly wasn't getting me very far. Proving a mafia Kitaman would go a long way into showing that I'm on the right track and that most of my ideas so far this game have been correct. Obviously from the post above you can see that I found the opposite result. At this point in time I had to seriously reconsider what's going on this game. Kita and Toad are both looking strongly town, and the evidence on WoS is lacking substance. Thus it was looking possible that a lot of what I was thinking this game was wrong. And not just wrong but not even in the same ballpark. What the hell is going on here? With my original theory about the day 1 votes going out the window, it was beginning to look like the mafia bussed sandroba. On it's own that seems unlikely. However going back and forth in my head over whether or not it could happen was not productive and not leading me anywhere (it was leading me in the wrong direction). I decided to approach the game from a new angle where I just ignored everything that happened with the day 1 votes. Thus I revisited one of my old suspect's from day 1 and took a read through his filter. I wasn't impressed so I did the research, looked further into the things he was saying and realized that my initial read on him was right (instead of wrong). And then it was my read on WoS that has been wrong this whole time. What do you have to say about *insert player here*'s reads this game (either on you or *insert player here*)? I think the evidence I've brought forth should explain a lot about who is reading who this game and why. I've been called out for giving shitty reasons on why Kita and/or Toad is mafia (with WoS thrown in there as well) rightfully so. Looking back on it, I kept going back and forth on Kita and Toad cause I was never really sure in my head which one was the remaining mafia, and that came out in my posts where I seem to flip-flop on them a lot. Scrapping these ideas totally have made everything make a lot more sense. Furthermore this same sort of idea can apply to the other players as well. Through this game I never felt that Kita's reads were perfect or that he was on the mark. I never liked WoS's reads (though his are actually looking to be the most true right now) and Toad's also been going back and forth. This was bothering me and leading me to think one or more of you had questionable reads because they were mafia and pushing an agenda. Now I realize that I was drawing the wrong conclusions. Kita's and Toad's reads have only been so-so not because they are mafia but because they were simply wrong. They were putting me in their mafia group but things weren't adding up. I think this is seen because all three of you have had posts like these: + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2014 12:55 kitaman27 wrote: Nope, mostly sharing where I'm at internally. I'm still thinking he is mafia, but I'm probably down to 70/30, where as I was like 90/10 previously, though I suppose I just completely made up those numbers. I want to make sure he is the best lynch before committing to him. I really wish I had thought to look at how he handles high pressure situations to draw the comparison to day one. bah. Maybe I'll take a look again with this in mind, but it's tough to warrant using the time that way if I'm not getting much return. I don't want to get to the point where I'm spending so much time that this game isn't fun anymore. Database shows 0/19 for town lynches. What I noticed here (and in other posts from you guys as well) is that there is a certain kind of doubt in your heads about lynching me. Like you have what looks like a good case but at the end of the day something isn't adding up right (I think for a lot of you that may be who my remaining mafia partner could be if I'm mafia). And now I see that's exactly how I felt whenever I was asked to comment on WoS or Kita or Toad. It made perfect sense in my mind why you guys would be the mafia based on the day 1 votes but still something didn't quite sit right (the pairing up wasn't always making sense). Same for you guys, it makes perfect sense in your head that I'm mafia and I'm pushing bad lynches without concrete analysis but at the end something isn't adding up. Thus I suggest thinking about why you have those feelings of doubt, and then analyzing the town situation from the perspective you least expect. Because after looking at Promethelax there is no doubt in my mind that he is mafia. All the pieces fit together perfectly now. You've completely done a 180 on us and changed up everything you've been thinking this game! I think you look like a desperate mafia pulling a last ditch attempt to survive a lynch! Yes, this is a reasonable concern (though in my opinion I could just convince you all to lynch WoS if that was the case, but that's a meaningless argument). This is why I urge you all to check out my analysis above on the three players and clearing your mind when trying to figure out this game. I was definitely looking in all the wrong places the past two days and the pieces weren't fitting together. I think that if you look at what I've given you above and how I was able to deduce these things everything should start clicking. What if Promethelax is town? I read your analysis but I'm not convinced cause *insert silly reason here*! That likely means I'm wrong on WoS. Going through the possibilities I felt confident that one of WoS or Promethelax is mafia (and figuring out which one would be the key to figuring out the game). The case on him is incredibly strong though. As I said above, the case on WoS lacks substance even if I can find some things that are bad. With Promethelax there is no doubt and all the proof is right there. What if you're mafia bussing your own teammate!?! VE said that sandroba, you and Promethelax were the 3 mafia! If I don't hand you the remaining mafia on a silver platter then it should be clear. I don't think us 3 as a mafia team fit with how the day 1 votes went down. Also why should I bus my own teammate when he's sitting a lot prettier than I am? Again, look at all the cases and see what clicks and what fits together. Sure, you can still have doubts about me, just as I still have nagging doubts about WoS, but those ideas don't fit with what's going on this game. Promethelax as mafia and WoS town makes a lot more sense, just as I'm sure Foolishness as town makes a lot more sense in your heads with the analysis I've provided. So what's the plan for the town to win the game? Lynch Promethelax, and figure out who is his partner from the remaining unconfirmed (myself included). + Show Spoiler + holy crap I will try to be around to answer questions but I'm so behind on work from all of this please be understanding if it takes me some time to respond. I should be here tomorrow before the lynch at the very least. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On January 28 2014 10:07 marvellosity wrote: the only thing that made me at all paranoid about austin was when he said "i only bust my ass when my mafiateam is losing" sort of thing. Seems a weird sort of thing to say if you're planning on afking for quite a while though If he's scum then he is a primary reason his mafia team is losing. (Not that I really think they're losing at this point considering how much trouble we're having) Kita thanks for outlining that. I guess the only issue I might have is the abruptness of the flip onto the idea of Foolishness scum, which is interspersed with the fail case on me---I guess it makes more sense outlined in front of me though I still don't see how he went into this entertaining the idea of me and Foolish scumteam. Could be bias speaking but it looks like he regrets giving Foolish a townread when he didn't quite deserve it and is covering his bases with that first post, not thinking whether having me/Foolish made sense? I guess if people don't have as much a problem with Toad then, it looks like we may be defaulting to FOolish today, which I can't say I have a problem with---I guess it's more the combination of the earlier thread silence + the idea that scumteam probably knows Foolish is being lynched today.... /paranoia | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Foolishness for the love of crap, will you please stick around so that people can talk to you? | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On January 28 2014 09:10 marvellosity wrote: you literally provide evidence of how it is possible for a mafia player not to have read his predecessor's posts, and then say it screams town. Can you see that? Do you not read bro? A scum needs an excuse to be aware of what their past self has said because they are aware of it. Therefore someone without an excuse to be aware of their past as scum is running too high a risk for zero gain. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On January 28 2014 10:14 Foolishness wrote: Oh, I'm also pretty certain I have the last mafia in the bag as well. Well since you don't have me in the bag I would suggest you re think this one as well. But you know, don't take my word on it I'm scum. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On January 28 2014 10:28 WaveofShadow wrote: Foolishness, are you going to tell us that the second scum is marv? yes, he is, and I want to know pretty sharpish why he's not putting me on the table given he clearly hints at that in numerous places. If it weren't for sheer effort alone this looks like scumclaiming. | ||
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