EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LI
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
I don't mind if he plays | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
##vote Balla24 | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
Sorry to miss the bulk of the conversation so far, the Australian timezone kind of skews the timeframes a little for me. Okay I've read through the thread, and mistakenly thought chinstrap seemed scummy until i re-read that he is confirmed innocent child! As someone coming late to the thread it gives me an external perspective so bear with me on my reads so far. Im leaning towards Balla and TheChyz being townie. However I may be completely off on this one. Balla seems townie, he is stirring up the most conversation out of everyone. I'm more skeptical of TheChyz, his loose play followed by claiming it to be "some trolly remark" is either a 180 freak out after he got voted OR its a great play drawing out the scum bandwagon. On January 06 2014 09:55 theDragoon wrote: Guys, this is very difficult compared to mafia IRL. But if I'm to go with my experience playing with friends, the most vocal people at the start who try to take control of the game tend to be mafia. Random accusations seem suspicious as well, so based on what's been posted so far, my eye is on Balla24, sidesprang and TheChyz. The dragoon has an early point that seems to me to stifle conversation rather than nourish it then jumps on the aforementioned bandwagon. At this stage theDragoon has my suspicion. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
On January 06 2014 15:30 JonnyLaw wrote: Dragoon and Chyz read more as if they're trying but misguided. Why would you say that theDragoon is misguided? | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
First and foremost - this was my debut post, i thought the idea was to be as transparent as possible as Town. So, for more transparency let me elaborate on my perspective now: just because i'm suspicious doesn't mean i'm 100% sold theDragoon is scum. I admit that I don't have an ironclad filter however if you look at theDragoon's filter i feel like he is dodging a lot of questioning without actually adding anything to the debate: ie. dynarri and Derrida since they've posted nothing so far. /notserious With so many votes on TheChyz we really need to start determining whether he is scum or not, I know the probability of a mislynching is higher at the start of the game but i'd rather not lynch someone who is contributing a decent amount. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
i hope we hear from dynarri and derrida | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
Asuna has mainly posted against you. Personally I find Asuna's analysis of you confusing however I do agree with his point regarding your attitude toward TheChyz. You label TheChyz innocent very early on little basis quite dismissively. Asuna's perspective here is understandable, and I feel that his direct and almost accusatory play strengthens a townie read on him. This is because a good Townie doesn't fear being lynched as long as his death brings solid information. So far a Townie read on Asuna. Day_Walker is a different story, he comes across as a narrator rather than a contributor. I read his filter out of context of the overall thread and it becomes apparent that his posts are very cautious. He posts a long list of inconsequential attitudes towards other players and follows up with some posts that seem to have very little content. As secondary evidence, i find theDragoons trust in him to be slightly incriminating... Also, on Day_Walker he seems to have good intentions.Calling out TheChyz as the only possible scum on the list seems like a bandwagon hop to me but TheChyz has been suspicious so it's something I agree with. His read on me I find is a bit unnecessary and does not really prove that I am a townie. I'm sure everyone playing this game is not afraid to disagree and standing up for yourself is something everyone does. He might just be including me on the list because I've posted a bit but his reasoning behind me as a townie really has no foundation. I already have my doubts about theDragoon as expressed earlier, however in this reply he off-handedly indicates his trust towards Day_Walker and jumps on the initial theChyz bandwagon. I am wary of sly indicators of trust before a paragraph of 'fluff' or 'waffle' (read the quote, it makes little sense) as it is easy as a reader to think "That sounded solid, I trust that guy" without a second thought. Asuna seems to have good intentions. Day_Walker and theDragoon seem scummy. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
As for your second question about "solid information" I speaking more in general terms about the style of play, its good for Town to 'stir up the pot' in day one. While initially it may seem anti-town for Asuna to stick to his convictions, should he get lynched it may help later on down the track for the rest of us living townies to see who their posturing may have scared. Comparing dialogue between people is crucial for flushing out the mafia in later analysis. Does that make sense? I hope i'm not rambling, tis late! I'm looking to hear from Balla, Suki and see what Jonny makes of my explanations before I finalise my vote in the morning. However my suspicions are still clear in the above posts and I'll probably stick with them rather than jump on a bandwagon. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
BigDad, answer me this: Aside from Dragoon 'trusting' Daywalker, what else about DayWalker makes him look scummy to you? Here's my analysis of Day_Walkers game so far which makes me mistrustful. He opens with a list of character reads (a common theme in this thread) which appears to contain a lot of content however if you strip out all the quoting he has done and put it in the context of his following posts it shows Day_Walker as a player who is appearing to contribute without saying too much. To back my doubt in Day_walker have a look here.. [B]Day_Walker..."I'm probably going to be guilty of this, making big posts like the one above and then leaving. If you ask me direction questions like you've been asking other people, that may help me sprinkle in some smaller posts when I have time to sit in the thread and discuss things." ..maybe im being an overly suspicious townie but I hate when people create an alibi for their style of play early in the game; it may be an attempt to misdirect any doubt on him. Also, scum tend to spend alot of time apologising for their actions and not trying to get anyones bad side. Suki, can you have a look at Day_Walkers feed and tell me if you can see where I am coming from? [B]##Vote Day_Walker I'd also like to hear JonnyLaws opinion on Day_Walker after the recent activity. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
##Vote Day_Walker | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
As far as I understand the best two ways to generate discussion early game are: a) Ask people their opinions so we can cross reference them throughout the game. b) Do what TheChyz did and bluff people onto bandwagons I don't have a solid read on Suki yet, i need to have another look at her feed. I was responding to her questioning and subsequent vote. I simply asked JonnyLaw for his opinion because my post was actually in response to something he asked earlier. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723&user=TheChyz | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
I've already outlined several times that I think theDragoon is an easy scum pick. Look at his posts (and my previous posts on him). I'll state it again he tends to dodge questions and post fluff that we cannot use to hunt scum. His self-vote is confusing; it's either a desperate, last-ditch attempt by a scum player to make us doubt our actions. Or it's a newbie town that can't deal with the pressure on himself and he needs to post more content to get the bandwagon off him. My position at the moment is that even a valiant fight on his behalf wont stop this bandwagon, this means that whatever he flips tomorrow we may be able to see his relationships with other players - unfortunately he seems to have given up the ghost and stopped posting. This means that should he flip Town he isn't helping us a whole bunch. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
Again with the wishy-washiness. He can't seem to decide if theDragoon is 'an easy scum slip' or 'a newbie town that can't deal with the pressure on himself'. I still don't get a really townie vibe from BigDad like some other people in the thread. He's just too much on the fence about things that he shouldn't be. I'm just going to re-iterate that I've already outlined several times that I think theDragoon is an easy scum pick. I'm not sure why you're still arguing that I'm sitting on the fence. Just because my vote lies with Day_Walker does not diminish my suspicion of theDragoon. In my opinion, Townies pressuring people they find suspicious isn't suspicious. There's a whole day to go and just because we think we definitely found a scum doesn't mean we have to stop analyzing and probing other players. (Sorry i bolded that i'm just tired of stating this same position so many times!!) my analysis for Balla24 is exactly that, analysis, I've stated my opinion - then stated some Obiter Dictum to try to nail his exact position. I'm not inclined to go through this again, but i'm happy to if you guys need it. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
My reads for suspicious player currently stand against Dnyarri and theDragoon with less doubt on Day_Walker for his pro-town stance on lynching those who aren't contributing. ##Unvote: Day_Walker (Explanation above; also, I don't want to waste a vote on him if we decide to kill of the Anti-Town lurkers or that theDragoon is scummy.) | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
My initial thoughts on this long awaited post is that still reads like a Knee-Jerk post. Of course in a defence post he is going to sound defensive however he almost goes on the offence against some people.. who exactly? He targets some of the most recent people to vote for him, plus myself who initially doubted him and the person i thought he was sympathizing with. I need to mull on this post for a while. I can't decide if its in our best interest to follow the potential bandwagon or go for the lurkers. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
On January 07 2014 18:41 Balla24 wrote: @bigdad Mafia also benefits from lurkers in the fact that it gives them a super easy target to push to a mislynch, don't forget that... I did it in my first game as scum in fact. Yeah, its bad if we mislynch a town lurker that doesn't post - but it could potentially be worse if we mislynch an active town. Eugh, im so confused. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
I may not be awake when the lynch occurs, but if in the next few hours you guys decide to choose a lurker over theDragoon i'll place my vote on dnyarri so that it may be easier to secure a majority. Im happy for either of them to go as one looks scummy and the other isn't adding much at all. [b]##Vote: dnyrarri | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
##Vote:dnyarri | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
Those last minute vote swaps have me curious. Overall I'm with chinstrap, shoot off dnyarri - he is the epitome of lurker and has atleast half of our votes anyway. No point wasting another day on him if we can help it. question - do we lynch another scum during night phase? | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
[quote]But, for me, if someone was to do this, it would be Balla who has been consistently spearheading discussion, pressuring people, and doing in-depth analysis. It just seems that he is the most experienced and/or better player here, which means that such a move would may only be expected of him if he was scum, now he is guaranteed townie in everyones eyes. [/q] This is obvious an attempt at eroding Town confidence in Balla who has since role claimed so i'm pretty sure we can add Balla with chinstrap in our confirmed town. So apart from confirming that Balla24 is a town, what else can we learn from Derrida's death? He hasn't really posted alot about other players. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
But, for me, if someone was to do this, it would be Balla who has been consistently spearheading discussion, pressuring people, and doing in-depth analysis. It just seems that he is the most experienced and/or better player here, which means that such a move would may only be expected of him if he was scum, now he is guaranteed townie in everyones eyes. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
##Vote: Dynarri | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
a. scum. b. town lurker (sadface) c. serial killer. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
He facilitated discussion through his aggressive play. Day one for JonnyLaw was pretty full on, check it out. He went after TheChyz, theDragoon, BigDad, Asuna and OWB. He definitely stirs up the pot in a manner that people respond to. Potentially scum weren't happy with that, which leads my to the second potential reason: His reads were strong? Maybe he got close to the truth and they didn't want him pushing one of his recent reads? @Balla24, what do you think? | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
@Day_Walker that posts makes sense to me, but where do we stand on Asuna if dnyarri flips green? | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
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BigDad
67 Posts
Tbh Personally I haven't had an in depth look at Asunas feed in a while, mainly been looking at Derrida, dnyarri and jonny. | ||
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BigDad
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BigDad
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BigDad
67 Posts
Dynarri Evidently this guy has dodged a lynch two days in a row my questions is why? Is it because of a pro-town play style or is it because there have been 'better options' on each day. Funnily enough its the second one - and each time we choose someone else they have flipped town. This is curious, why on earth do we keep finding him to be the less scummy option? Lets have a look at his filter to determine whether he is actually contributing to the team. Check this bandwagoning he is doing: Day 1: dynarri jumps on theChyz bandwagon here Day 1: dynarri jumps onto theDragoon bandwagon and subsequent lynch here Day 2: dynarri spots possible opportunity of simultaneously bandwagoning onlywonderboy while posturing and preparing bandwagon onto me here Day 2: dynarri jumps onto the onlywonderboy bandwagono and subsequent lynch here Personally, looking at his filter I can't help but find him to be utterly scummy. Please take the time to look at that those links for me. Now that we can see his train of thought, lets go back to my initial question: "Why do we find him the less scummy option?" I DONT find him the less scummy option. He is consistently 'blowing in the wind' whichever way balla24 or popular demand takes his votes and it's working. Not only that, he has spent a lot of time out of the thread (which we realised when we initially decided to lynch him from lurking) but he is bandwagoning like no tomorrow. Where is the solid reasoning in his votes? Here, look at this reasoning for the OWB's mislynch: here which convieniently looks as if he has made some powerful reasoning when he links - but if you follow the link in that post... huh? where is the reasoning? he said it himself, he voted for OWB because OWB voted for him. That's a very irresponsible way to spend a vote. So now I ask "Why has he dodged a lynch two days in a row?" I'll post my analysis of theChyz shortly. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
My case on theChyz (sorry i didn't get this into the nightpost, i had an action packed weekend) I'll start with Asuna's analysis of theChyz then move onto what I had previously: On January 12 2014 13:49 Asuna wrote: There's been so SK kill, and you're assuming that there's not a single non vanilla townie left? You said assuming no vigi or mason, but now you're assuming no cop, doc, or town RB as well. And assuming all that, therefore TTTTT is the setup and therefore there's no mafia RB which means I'm mafia? And that's why you're pushing with an instant lynch vote on me? Wtf logic is this. Like, you're literally assuming every remaining townie is a vanilla towning (if I'm reading http://wiki.mafiascum.net/?title=C9++ correctly). You looked scummy on day 1 and this rush to lynch with the dumbest logic ever just puts you back in the lynch seat for me. ##Vote: TheChyz coupled with On January 12 2014 13:56 Asuna wrote: Also, my read right now is that TheChyz is the mafia roleblocker. My reason for that read is that because no cops have come forward, and no doc saving has occurred on the two most obvious townies (Balla and JonnyLaw), he's assuming that I'm a town power role, either cop or doc (because I've been roleblocked every night). Assuming that, that makes 3 townie power roles, which makes it relatively unlikely that there is another one. I say that because it explains what he says about So he's expecting that I will be the only town power role to claim. Thus making me alone. You can combine what I just typed with what I typed above and have spoilered here: + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2014 13:49 Asuna wrote: There's been so SK kill, and you're assuming that there's not a single non vanilla townie left? You said assuming no vigi or mason, but now you're assuming no cop, doc, or town RB as well. And assuming all that, therefore TTTTT is the setup and therefore there's no mafia RB which means I'm mafia? And that's why you're pushing with an instant lynch vote on me? Wtf logic is this. Like, you're literally assuming every remaining townie is a vanilla towning (if I'm reading http://wiki.mafiascum.net/?title=C9++ correctly). You looked scummy on day 1 and this rush to lynch with the dumbest logic ever just puts you back in the lynch seat for me. ##Vote: TheChyz So Chyz is so mafia. Voting pattern: theChyz's playstyle focuses on submitting votes against players in rapid fire succession. This has proved to be a volatile gamestyle in the early stages of the game; he has since stood by this play style as a method of stirring discussion link. However if you take a deeper look at the way this play is 'facilitating' discussion you can see another pattern in his votes: Day 1: votes for Day_Walker link Day 1: votes for dnyarri link Day 1: votes for Day_Walker link Day 1: votes for theDragoon link Jumps onto theDragoon bandwagon. Not highly suspicious as a lot of people made this mistake. Day 2: votes for dnyarri link Day 2: votes for OWB link Day 2: votes for Asuna link Day 2: votes for OWB link Bounces between the major bandwagon of the day OWB and other players before switching right before the final tally. Coupled with the other analysis made in the thread this is scummy play. He gets to join the bandwagon while hiding behind his other votes on Asuna. Day 3: votes for Asuna link Asuna has claimed being roleblocked two days in a row; provided scum could have a roleblocker, which is highly likely given the structure of the game. I think this is a pretty good indicator of his innocence. theChyz is trying to get a mislynch onto Asuna so that he doesn't have to use another nightkill on someone he is roleblocking and suspects to be a power role. Inexplicable play by theChyz He currently has his vote on Asuna yet say this: Currently I think asuna, dnyarri, chinstrap, myself are town. With a 6v2 right now that makes it only having to pick out a pair out of the remaining 4. Those being DW, suki, bigdad, and sidesprang. I'm not sure if theChyz isn't following the conversations that have been going on, has not been reading the thread or his analysis is purely circumstantial and changes extremly quickly. However to me, it just summarizes his 'bouncy' play style is incriminating. Personally I think theChyz is scum. ##Vote: theChyz | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
theChyz and dnyarri. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
67 Posts
@Sidestrang and Chinstrap, please come out of hibernation for today. We need to determine what is happening at lynch time. Please see Asuna's, Suki, Dnyarri and my own reasoning for why TheChyz is the scummiest pick at the moment. | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
On January 14 2014 05:14 sidesprang wrote: I did vote BigDad, and I also asked him a direct question for what I felt he needed to so I could understand his play. He refused to do so, so I just assume he dont have an explanation for it and that he is scum at this point. Sorry, I must have missed it. I'll go through your feed, give me a few moments. | ||
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BigDad
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BigDad
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BigDad
67 Posts
Day_Walker Began super active, then became defensive when probed for analysis. Has re-visited thread intermittently to submit deflective comments and more recently join the bandwagon against myself. It is difficult to get a very strong town read on Day_Walker due to his inactivity, a solid half of his posts were made during the first day period. After which he follows popular trends and posts innocuous sentence length posts (see the next 6 posts after this one.) While short posts are not inherently scummy, i think the nature of these give a good indication if you look at what he is responding too. Additionally Mafia tend to get quite defensive. Again, this is not a 100% scum tell, but it certainly adds to the overall feel of Day_Walker's scum read. A non-exhaustive list below: Heated discussion with chinstrap: here. I realized that I was saying a lot of "not too much here, probably town", so I stopped and just posted what I had. In retrospect the post would have been stronger if I had just focused on my read of the interaction between you and Chyz. Speaking to Balla24 before his untimely death: It's weird that when I share my thoughts about someone, I include both sides I see, even the side that I ultimately disfavor? And finally he soft-defends me in his second post post then votes for me 48 hours later without. This by far is an interesting scum-tell; what is his reasoning? Day_Walker asks more questions than he answers. He secures my vote for Day 4. ##Vote: Day_Walker --------- --------- ---------- As for dnyarri Ran out of time on my break, essentially all the reasons I've covered previously. I'll write another post consolidating and elaborating on dynarri today. Strapped for time at work currently. I feel that Day_Walker is currently our biggest concern. @Town, was anyone roleblocked last night? | ||
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
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BigDad
67 Posts
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BigDad
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BigDad
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BigDad
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BigDad
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BigDad
67 Posts
On January 17 2014 07:37 Umasi wrote: Balla24 had well over a fourth of the game in his filter, town should have at least tried to match his effort as much as possible, and seeing him not die night one really confused me that said, I didn't read the game carefully, I just helped lonemeow if he said he needed a votecount, so /shrug suki seemed to play the game really well though I seriously considered lynching him asap, but even though he was contributing a bunch he couldn't get heaps of traction with town. | ||
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