EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 4
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sidesprang and dnyarri's reasons to jump on OWB were basically a paraphrase of my argument with nothing added. Asuna used the 'compare to his previous games' argument as well as well as a simple criticism of his read on Derrida. To be honest I'm frustrated that so many people bandwagoned on my case, said 'yup sounds good' and left it at that. It makes it very hard to analyze their motives. Especially Asuna, who I thought was a better player than this and who I think is town (from my own impression and from the undisputed roleblock claim).. I expected more. Day_Walker provided his own reasoning and shows he put some thought into his decisions. I think even though everyone has been reading Day_Walker as scum, I still have to disagree. I think his posts show he's put a lot of thought into his decisions and he hasn't been afraid to go against the flow of the town based on his own reads, even if they mean he stands out. BigDad votes dnyarri, without much reason behind it. In Day 2 he postures a lot but doesn't add anything and eventually goes AWOL, completely missing the critical portion of the day when everyone is discussing OWB. His reason to vote dnyarri is also hardly explained. He's definitely on my scum list for Day 3. | ||
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Sorry about being away for the night, I have a busy Saturday day and evening and I'm just popping in to let everyone know that the first thing I'm going to do when I wake up tomorrow is spend a good hour or two on mafia. Heading out for now. | ||
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The NightKill I think this is a simply motivated attack on a strong townie who is also pretty much confirmed due to his roleclaim. As the game is nearing its end scum has to target confirmed towns such as chinstrap and Balla or they'll be in a very bad position in the final days. I agree with theChyz's reasoning before the NK that if Balla somehow avoided being NK'd for the next night he would start to look very suspicious, however that didn't happen. TheChyz I had a townie read on him since Day 1, but have not been giving him any attention since then as he hasn't stuck out to me up to now. I like his responses to Balla's insane pressure. I liked his attack on the people who switched their vote just after Day 1 and still think it's very townie. And then there's this post followed by his accusations on Asuna: If they all belong to scum that means their powerroles are only 1 goon, 1 GF, and 1 SK. That means there is NO ROLEBLOCKER. This is really bad reasoning. Why would you think there is still a SK when he hasn’t shot in either N1 or N2 (In N1, Balla claimed one KP out of two, in N2 there is only 1 KP). Also, why would you assume that town has no other blue roles? Scenario 1: TheChyz is mafia and they have a roleblocker. That means his attack on Asuna is completely untrue from his perspective, and he knows that his proposed 1 goon 1GF 1SK setup is not the only setup. Therefore, his attack is weak but very easily taken apart. I really don't think mafia would screw up like this so late in the game and put themselves under heavy scrutiny. IE. This reasoning is so bad that it makes him look townie for it. Scenario 2: TheChyz is mafia and they have 1 goon and 1 GF (and therefore he is the GF). That means he's already confirmed that the set up has to be TTTTT V M. Plausible, but this also means Asuna is the serial killer and has claimed roleblock two nights in a row undisputed... Also, by this argument he would basically be divulging that he knows the setup, which again I think is a mistake that mafia is unlikely to make. Also... + Show Spoiler + If anyone is thinking "yeahhh well the SK could have been faking being role blocked twice in a row" or "she could be SK and a town roleblocker could have blocked her twice in a row" ... Just no. In short, Scenario 2 just makes no sense. Scenario 3: TheChyz is town and just made a wrong assumption, but stated it strongly because he really believed he solved the game and was pushing for a win. In short I think TheChyz is town because it would be a really really bad scum play. Asuna I had a town read on her before. Figured she was town when she claimed she was roleblocked on N1. Now she's claimed 1-shot cop which means the setup is: M V C TTTT . Two goons, one mafia roleblocker, which fits with her story of being roleblocked. Unless someone claims a different role, I am going to assume she is confirmed town. dnyarri Since D2 mislynch of OWB, dnyarri has stepped up his game and has been providing analysis. I think this alone makes him more townie because I think a scum dnyarri would just keep on trying to get by on lurking since it worked for him on Day 1 and 2. I like this post a lot. I think he brings up some good points, shows critical thinking, and get an overall town feel from it (although I don't agree Day_Walker is scum). dnyarri reads town to me. Day_Walker I've defended Day_Walker a lot and been the only one defending him I think. Balla's dying words listed him as super scummy... I still don't think he is scum, but if I'm wrong about who I think is the scum team then I will have to rethink my read. He hasn't been active in N2, but I hope he will be more active during Day 3. My read on the scum team is BigDad and sidesprang, which I will go through in my next post. | ||
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Basically read my cases on him up to this point. Other players have brought up cases against him. I don't feel like reiterating everything. One thing to note is he hasn't been around since basically the beginning of Day 2. sidesprang Before Night 2 I wasn't suspicious of sidesprang as I had my attention on other people. I also assumed he was more likely to be town because Derrida labeled sidesprang as 'Red' in his opening post. If we actually lynched dnyarri and he came up town, they kinda stuck their neck out for nothing. The way they changed vote without any explanation and kinda out of the blue would have been hard to explain. Especially with a green lynch on their vote swap. I don't think scum would have taken that risk. Looking at this again, this line on why he thinks theDragoon and OWB are green if dnyarri is green is suspicious. If he's scum, this line of thought also applies to him and he's basically explaining why he didn't vote switch. It would also be a perfect explanation because he would know that dnyarri is town (this is also another reason to think dnyarri is town). On the other hand, seeing how it went down. I can't fault others for not following, especially since I can only now read theDragoons post while knowing he is town. Its a bit hard for me to judge how much towny he looked before the vote. I don't like the bolded part. Why would it be hard to judge how townie he looked before the vote? His previous post posted his line of thought before the lynch and he felt that theDragoon was most likely to flip scum. So he obviously had a read. Saying he can't judge how townie he looked before the vote is inconsistent with his statement that theDragoon was scum. sidesprang also piggy-backed on my analysis of OWB. He made a big post and provided links but basically added nothing new. I'm not convinced the chance of OWB being scum is higher than dnyerri atm. I'll try to look into BigDad. sidesprang said this but hasn't posted anything on BigDad. BigDad also hasn't said anything about sidesprang. Makes sense if they're a scum team. I think BigDad/sidesprang scum team makes sense more than any other pairing. I think a BigDad lynch today and a sidesprang lynch tomorrow would win it for us. ##vote BigDad | ||
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As for bigdad he is the towniest of all 3. There are a few things that might seem scummy but overall I feel he has been contributing ok and that he is creating some useful conversation. Most importantly is that he sticks with dnyarri as his scum choice and doesn't join the owb bandwagon and adds more useful thought into his reasoning to lynch dnyarri. I think BigDad's reasoning to lynch dnyarri that he posted on Day 2 was weak and tunnel-y. Sticking with dnyarri as his scum choice and not following the flow of the thread is more townie than scum, but he was also away during the end of Day 2 so we don't really know if he would have stuck with dnyarri or changed to OWB. I feel that his Day 1 play had several scum tells in it (that other people have brushed off). Compared to the other players still in the game he looks the most scummy to me. | ||
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I'll have another look at TheChyz after I come back home tonight. Giving him the pass for 'obviously bad play' is sounding less and less like a valid idea. | ||
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I had a reread through TheChyz's filter and I think he's been slipping hard since Day 2 ended. Here is TheChyz's conversation with Balla during Night 2, bolded parts for emphasis: + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2014 03:52 TheChyz wrote: Anyways I still want to reread some peoples filters to make sure I didn't confuse things between people and I'll have my explanation before night ends, but can you post yours aswell Balla : "Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later." On January 12 2014 03:57 Balla24 wrote: Also: there's 3 hours left, if I were going to post it I would have plenty of time to post it. I lost faith in the theory anyways. On January 12 2014 04:03 TheChyz wrote: And Balla, thats a bullshit reason not to make your post. You said "Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later" and since you keep pestering others to explain their thoughts, I expect you to do the same. On January 12 2014 04:06 Balla24 wrote: NO fuck that that's so scummy. It's pretty obvious what I had to say was due to night actions. You're pretty silly if you can't see that. So why would I post it 3 HOURS before the night is over and let mafia plan around that. MOST IMPORTANTLY THOUGH: Why are you pushing me so hard for it? I'm clearly active. This is SO fricking scummy from you Chyz. Do you need it to make a decision on what to do with your scum buddy? On January 12 2014 04:22 TheChyz wrote: @Balla What is so scummy about it, your doing the exact same thing from everybody else and forcing them to explain things, what makes you such a special case that whenever you say something we should just let you pass cause your active? Jonny (i think) said that you are active both scum and town so I find no reason why you felt that posting that you will post your thoughts later and then now not wanting to is scummy from me. Seems like your being very defensive. And you don't have to post now, just before night ends (even if its 1 sec before) On January 12 2014 05:00 TheChyz wrote: I didn't skip it, it will be done before the night ends. still got time. First off, I feel that TheChyz's pressure on Balla is really off. He pressures Balla for not providing his reads, and Balla replies there's still three hours before the night is over. TheChyz calls bullshit on Balla's reasoning. Following that, Balla asks TheChyz for analysis, and TheChyz simply replies there's still time. This inconsistency stands out to me, and I think there's a very good reason for it if you assume TheChyz is mafia - He wants to know what Balla's reads are before he posts his own analysis. There is no reason to assume Balla is not 1-shot vig as he claimed, and yet TheChyz seems to be getting ready to throw suspicion at Balla. Perhaps if Balla had his reads completely wrong and had posted them early enough, scum may have kept Balla alive. TheChyz posts his analysis at 2:58, 2 minutes before the deadline. Balla posts his at 2:59. The day post is posted at 3:02. Asuna has also made a strong case against TheChyz, the most striking of which is: Would be pretty funny if that inconsistent choice of tense in your most recent statement was actually a slipup lol. "when I am scum the easiest thing for me to do was to lurk" Looking at his 'setup analysis' where he wrongly concludes that there is a SK, it may just have been a ploy to root out the remaining blue role, which he was successful at doing now that Asuna has role claimed. TheChyz tries to reason his way out by saying it was intentional or that it was due to his english, however I think there's enough evidence to strongly say that he screwed up in Night 2 and Day 3 and revealed himself through his actions and words. ##unvote ##vote TheChyz | ||
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At the beginning of the game BigDad stated a soft defense of TheChyz ("I'm leaning toward Balla and TheChyz being townie"), when TheChyz was under pressure for his antics, but ever since that post BigDad has put mild pressure against TheChyz until his full on bus today. The fact that BigDad has never closely analyzed TheChyz I think makes sense if both of them are scum. I think we've solved the game guys :D I'm getting jitters anticipating the flip. Unfortunately I have a dinner with my family so I'll miss the deadline but I'll pop back on as soon as I can. | ||
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I guess now we're in MYLO. The good thing is that I think there's no way we can miss scum in Day 4. The remaining players are: chinstrap, Asuna, dnyarri, BigDad, Day_Walker, sidesprang, suki. From my point of view, chinstrap, Asuna and I are confirmed town. dnyarri is also town to me for his recent contributions to town and his self-analysis post which I find sincere. That means, out of BigDad, Day_Walker and sidesprang two of them are scum. I think there's a good chance that I'll be killed tonight so I'll post my analysis for everyone to consider. I'd like to do the trick Balla did and post reads right before the deadline but I won't have the opportunity to, so this post will have to do. BigDad + Show Spoiler + I've been pushing BigDad for pretty much the whole game. At first I was convinced he slipped because of his wishy-washiness on Day 1. In this post here I pressed him for wishy-washiness, at first I didn't care for his response, but looking at it now I feel I may have been tunneling him too hard. BigDad also pushes the tD/DW scumbuddy theory, which was super flimsy and which I thought was a scummy move. The three people who pushed this theory (according to theDragoon) were BigDad, OWB and dnyarri. OWB has flipped town, dnyarri is town as well I believe (and in my analysis I showed he didn't really subscribe to that theory anyways). So basically this theory is non-indicative of alignment. BigDad became less suspicious of Day_Walker near the end of Day 1, subscribing to Day_Walker's idea of dnyarri scum and voting dnyarri. From there on BigDad's primary target has been dnyarri. Even up to Day 3, BigDad was still tunneling dnyarri, making a big post attacking dnyarri with weak points. dnyarri deflects the attack, but again, a lot of the arguments were strained and weak and I see plenty of scum motivation to do so. I think his continued tunneling of dnyarri is scummy, and I think his wishy-washiness earlier was scummy. However I was so sure that theChyz was going to flip scum and BigDad would be his scumbuddy and with TheChyz's reveal I'm not so sure anymore. Points in BigDad's favour: I liked BigDad's original analysis of Day_Walker where he states Day_Walker's play is cautious, but didn't agree with the verdict because at the time I was reading Day_Walker as cautious townie. This quote, Sweet! Good shot whoever the cop/vig is. Someone else commented that this makes BigDad look more townie.. And yeah.. In mafia QT they'd be talking about vig shots, and cop checks.. To make a simple mistake and think that both cops and vig's can shoot seems more like a townie blunder. Kind of a weak point on its own but something that caught my eye as a possible 'newbie town' slip. He is the last non-confirmed person that Jonny pressured in Day 1. Everyone else is now confirmed town (except dnyarri who I am assuming is town and Derrida who flipped scum Night 1). I like BigDad's 'voting pattern' argument against theChyz. It felt like he was contributing. TheChyz defended BigDad and saw him as least scummy of the three. BigDad has been less active recently, which makes it harder to read him than other players. I'm not confident in my scum read on him anymore. Day_Walker + Show Spoiler + I read Day_Walker as town in Day 1. I saw his posts as cautious, but nothing really scummy stood out to me. Since then, Balla, OWB and TheChyz have all placed Day_Walker on their scum list right before they were lynched. I always thought other people looked more scummy and reading Day_Walker's filter nothing ever stood out to me but now I'm looking deeper. Day 1, his opening post is a list post where his only scum choice is TheChyz.. Everyone saw this as scummy. I admitted it but thought his later play made up for it and dismissed it. Day_Walker avoids a vote on theDragoon and defends him because of his 'gut feeling'. He's inconsistent in one post where he explains that theDragoon's case was bandwagoned by mafia, not led by them, but at the end of the post thinks dnyarri looks scum because he led the votes on theDragoon. He also pushes this idea of lynching 'scummy lurkers', which he then sort of explained his way out of, but lynching lurkers does have scum motives. Day_Walker commented on OWB's case, saying TheChyz made a great case against OWB and that he would be fine with switching, but keeps his vote on dnyarri. In his next post he says he might be tunnel-visioning dnyarri and switches his vote to OWB without further explanation. Someone else pointed this out previously, but Day_Walker put Asuna as #2 scum, even though he admitted his reasoning on why he thought she was scum was incorrect and that he would be unhappy with an Asuna lynch. He jumps on BigDad after my case on BigDad without any explanation and hasn't contributed since. Day_Walker shows inconsistency in his reads and inconsistency in what he says and how he acts. He doesn't provide strong cases when he does act, either. I've read him as 'cautious', but because he didn't show any obvious scum slips he didn't stand out to me. I think the case against him is the strongest. My vote for him is at the end of this post. sidesprang + Show Spoiler + sidesprang hopped onto theDragoon after theDragoon self-destructed. So it would be an easy bandwagon. He pressures theDragoon a bit. He states that it's possible for Day_Walker to be scum, but that 'its way more likely for him to be scum if theDragoon is scum'. The rest of his analysis of Day_Walker is non-conclusive. After theDragoon's lynch, he says 'I think we should spend some more energy on looking at the votes. I'll try to see if I can find something.' He never ends up looking into the votes. sidesprang was eighth to vote for theDragoon. He soft-defended Day_Walker, and was fourth to vote against dnyarri. After TheChyz, chinstrap and I vote against OWB, he posted his analysis on OWB and switched to OWB. Sidesprang was fifth to vote for TheChyz on the pretense that he didn't see how theChyz's trapping plays could be explained from a townie perspective. Sidesprang has bandwagoned on every lynch this game. He provides a bit of analysis before he votes, but doesn't really explore any other options in the meantime. He spends a lot of time defending. I think he is second most likely to be scum. One thing I realized is that all the people that Jonny pressured in Day 1 before he got shot are now confirmed town, except BigDad. OWB, TheChyz, Asuna, theDragoon, dnyarri. BigDad was probably #1 on Jonny's list to shoot at the end of Day 1. In Night 1 Jonny called out Derrida and probably would have pushed a Derrida lynch and then both of them were shot. Also notice that Jonny did not mention sidesprang at all, and only mentioned Day_Walker once saying he wanted to see more from Day_Walker. Killing Jonny could have been a way to get rid of a strong player while also pointing town against everyone he pressured. Derrida was under heavy fire from me, Balla and Jonny so killing any of us would have worked, but they chose Jonny. In summary, as I stated in my analysis of Day_Walker: Day_Walker shows inconsistency in his reads and inconsistency in what he says and how he acts. He doesn't provide strong cases when he does act, either. I've read him as 'cautious', but because he didn't show any obvious scum slips he didn't stand out to me. I think the case against him is the strongest. ##vote Day_Walker sidesprang is my second choice for scum, with BigDad being third. I guess it's not just a coincidence that I'm coming up with the same read as TheChyz. | ||
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##unvote Day_Walker Oops, I guess I can't vote until the day actually starts. Regardless, that's where I'll be putting it if I'm still alive. | ||
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Anyways, as discussed in my night post: ##vote Day_Walker I'll have a look at BigDad's analysis when he's posted all of it and anyone else's, when I wake up in the morning. | ||
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I want to hear BigDad's reads on dnyarri (??), and also on sidesprang. As for everyone else, what the hell? Did everyone just decide to lay over and die? Post some analysis and place your vote so we can discuss and make the best informed decision before the day is over. I don't know if everyone has just given up but I haven't and I still want to win =[ | ||
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Sidesprang posted: Only way that post makes sense if Day_Walker is mafia is if thedragoon is mafia. With 9 votes on a player, why would you try to change the vote in any way if you were mafia, unless the person with the 9 votes were your mafia buddy. Atleast that is what pops to my head first when trying to see it from a mafia perspective. This can be seen as a soft defense of Day_Walker, knowing that sidesprang knows theDragoon is not mafia. Sidesprang posted: Day_Walker When I read his filter I see a possibility for him being scum, however I think its way more likely for him to be scum if theDragoon is scum I feel he gave him a weak townread in the start with his list. And when BigDad says he find Day_Walker and theDragon both became overly defensive about it. And also as chinstrap pointed out making a scumcase for the lurkers and a towncase for theDragoon, is something that very well can be done as scum regardless of theDragoon's allignment. And the more I think about it, I think it's more likely to be done if he is scum. If he makes a case for theDragoon is town then if he flips town he gets cred. If he flips scum then he tried to save his buddy. I do however feel this is very circumstantial and I would not feel comfortable lynching him, but this is what I read when I tried to view him as scum. Sidesprang flips back and forth on whether he thinks Day_Walker is scum, or not. His final verdict is he would not be comfortable lynching Day_Walker. Another defense. Aside from these two early non-scum reads on Day_Walker, sidesprang has not commented on Day_Walker. I think this supports the Day_Walker/sidesprang scum team theory, because Day_Walker has been in the spotlight for the last few days and sidesprang hasn't commented on him once. In Day_Walker's first post, he lists sidesprang as town (along with everyone else). Shortly after sidesprang bandwagoned onto theDragoon, Day_Walker posts his anti-lurker post where he votes dnyarri for being a scummy lurker. Sidesprang is in that list as well. Balla had already commented that sidesprang's vote looked like a bus, so it's a good move to include sidesprang in the list of lynch targets. Day_Walker doesn't actually say that sidesprang looks scummy though. In one of Day_Walker's more recent posts he proposes dnyarri+Asuna+Derrida scum team. He later backs down but doesn't propose a new team. There's a total absence of comment on sidesprang from Day_Walker. In addition, Day_Walker and sidesprang avoided voting on the same people in all three lynches so far. There's ample reason for Mafia to not vote together, especially when town is so confused. I feel that Day_Walker and sidesprang can be explained by their weak reads and lack of posts against each other, as well as their voting patterns. | ||
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No matter what case I bring up, scum can always explain away the points (minus obvious scum slips, and I don't really see anything like that). So prove your towniness by making a case, and if there's flaws in it then you'll slip as scum anyways. | ||
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My reads are all plainly laid out in my night post.. Nothing's happened at all since then so there's nothing for me to add... -_- | ||
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Also, can we get the link to the obs QT? I'm dying to read it. | ||
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