EPT/replacement
Hogwarts Mafia
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
/replacement | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
##vote: no lynch glhf! | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Ye ur right. I'll put some time before the deadline and try to make some contributions. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
If I see someone who I think has a good chance of being mafia, I'll change my vote onto them. Otherwise I'll still stick to a no-vote. I think it's perfectly acceptable for me to be lynched today given that town is pretty far ahead. I just joined in so nobody knows much about me, and I don't know much about anyone else. I definitely have less value than any other townie, or blue roles. So I'm just going to assume that I'm getting lynched, and try to contribute as much as I can for the one hour that I'm playing. Anyways, onto filters. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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I will be reading into Hufflepuff filters next. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On October 22 2013 04:16 Sn0_Man wrote: Dear Chairman Ray: Vote somebody. Stutters would make the most sense. Dear Town: Stutters kill over CR? I'm down for the swap but we need to be fairly unanimous since Cephiro still has 4 votes for bad reasons. I just read through his filter. This strikes me the most: On October 22 2013 02:04 Stutters695 wrote: Well after catching up on Ceph and his role, I'm with Mocsta and still think he should be number 1 lynch today. This dude is simply not town. Gonna go catch up with the other candidates, but I'm still for a Ceph lynch currently. Two reasons: 1. From of browse of Cephiro's filter, I think Cephiro is null at best. He's not giving me a strong scumread. I doubt that with Stutters' activity, he could have really gotten the strong read that he claimed. I think he's just piggybacking on Mocsta. 2. He still hasn't caught up with the other candidates, despite saying he will If we're going to be lynching a lurker today, I think he's the best target IMO. I would be willing to vote stutters, but not Cephiro. ##unvote ##vote: stutters695 | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
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On October 22 2013 04:37 Stutters695 wrote: Again, something I've already said, and yes I did read the new stuff and it hasn't changed my opinion. Just like in Noir he's doing exactly what he has to in order to avoid his lynch and not a single extra word to the benefit of town. CR: Read my summary of his actions in the Griff qt and it will make more sense. The summary is quite brief, so I cannot really gauge anything from it. Are the rest of your house members in agreement that Cephiro's qt posts are scummy? | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 22 2013 04:43 Stutters695 wrote: Since we are not lynching, I'm following syllo and my vote is on Ray. Two question, Not lynching means voting me? Is there something in the game that I'm missing? Secondly, mind explaining your case for voting me? | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 22 2013 04:49 Stutters695 wrote: No, but I value trusting a confirmed towns judgement over getting mislynched when I haven't had time to catch up on everyone yet. Since I'm at work and I might not get another post in before the deadline: If I get lynched, sorry my play was bad. Ceph is anti-town and should die. If BH isn't shot/makes a confirmed save/gets a confirmed save on him, murder the shit out of him. Town BH wouldn't RNG a save over picking someone with a proven town record imo and if memory serves, a trolling BH is a scum BH. Do you mind explaining your vote on me? There's only 10 minutes left for you to do so. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Stutters somewhat scummy. Would be a good lynch tomorrow if we're not lynching Hufflepuff Among Hufflepuff, Mattchew reads the most town to me, followed by hope, then holy. Grack seems the most scum to me. No time to explain. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On October 22 2013 04:58 StorrZerg wrote: Would you say your last coins went out to town? Also where does C.Ray say he can only play for 1 hour a day? I said it in the replacement thread. I dunno if me replacing in is better than no replacement at all though. I'm just trying my best for the one hour I'm in this game though ^^ | ||
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Chairman Ray
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PS. Why is my name Chairman Yang now? | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
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On October 22 2013 05:45 raynpelikonoshi wrote: Did you already role claim CR? Would you like to do it? We would like it. I think I said I was vanilla townie already. Name is Anthony Goldstein, from Ravenclaw. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
I don't think this discussion regarding Skan and myself being mafia team is quite productive IMO, but that's because I know that I'm town. Given the circumstances, I think it's obvious that I'm gonna flip in the morning from vig. My flip would be the most advantageous for town given that I'm gonna be a semi-lurker, and also it gives good information regarding Skan. Since I'm town, what Skan did was just move his vote from one town to another, drawing suspicion. I don't think this is a mafia thing to do really. Personally if I was mafia, I would not vote switch on two town last minute, unless the winning votes was low like 3-3. With low vote numbers, it may be advantageous for mafia to not be responsible for a mislynch. This is not the case since there were plenty of voters on both stutters and myself. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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hi | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Question, do we have someone who's confirmed to be a vig? I read some mentions of a delayed vig. Does that mean the target dies the next night, and also, did they use it on me yet? That would be useful info. Anyways, I would probably be a good vig target just to get out of the way tbh. Voting me wouldn't be all that productive since I'm town, and I've only caught up with like 100 pages of this thread, and haven't gotten very far in the house qt yet. So it's not like the pressure is gonna force me to post some incredibly good reads. But with whatever time I have here, I'll try to contribute what I can. I think today, I personally would like to lynch into Hufflepuff. Yeah Mattchew and storrzerg are gonna flip and there's a chance he's the mafia in there, but my current read on Mattchew is town, and StorrZerg is null, not really scummy. Reason is because Mattchew has done the most inhouse scumhunting among the Hufflepuff group. Storrzerg hasn't set off any bells for me yet. So with two Hufflepuff modkills and a lynch kill today, I think we have a really good chance of getting the hufflescum today. Regardless if there's a framer or not, lynching into huffle is still a good choice. I think that there has to be at least one scum in each house. It makes sense from a game design perspective. If the hosts divided it as 2-2-2-0, then one house is missing out of a really interesting part of the game, and scum don't have any reads from that house's qt. So assuming that there is a hufflescum, we flip Mattchew, StorrZerg and another tonight, and then choose one more to lynch. Moving on from here, do we still have cop checks? I think it would be really useful to confirm if we have a 3-1-1-1 setup or a 2-2-1-1 setup, that is by my assumption that there is mafia in each house. In short: Vig me Lynch huffle | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 24 2013 10:40 Mocsta wrote: Cr. U said u r not caught up. Why do u know about the modkills? I'm not caught up yet with the earlier posts or ravenclaw qt, but I have read through all the posts after I joined, and skimmed through a couple filters. I figure that if I can't read through everything, then the most recent stuff is probably the most useful. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On October 24 2013 10:41 Mocsta wrote: I'm swapping to cr anyways The timing is just too coincidental There's no vig left.. so his martyr is meaningless And he knows about things he shoukdnt if he hasn't caught up I didn't miss the modkill, but I missed the timing thing. What timing is coincidental exactly? | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On October 24 2013 10:47 Mocsta wrote: Chairman... If u r up to date from joining to now What is your position on cephiro Reading through his filter, he doesn't seem all that scummy to me tbh. That's why I didn't vote him yesterday. But what really strikes me is that there has to be a scum among Ceph, raynko, and JAT. IMO, ceph is probably a bit more scummy than the other two. Do we have enough town alive to plow through both huffle and griff? From reading rayn's filter, he's very adamant on lynching within griff to get the scum. He doesn't seem to have a strong preference on which person to lynch first. If he's town, he might just not have a solid read on one over the other and to him, 50% mafia lynch chance in the first lynch, and 100% on the second one is an attractive option. However if he's mafia, the check basically makes his days numbered. Once JAT and ceph flip town, then rayn is confirmed scum. So in this instance, he either has two options, and they are to avoid griff kills as a whole, or convince people to kill within griff so he dies last. So if raynko is scum, he's doing the latter. Overall, this doesn't tell us anything about raynko's alignment, but if we're plowing through griff looking for the one scum, I would want it to be in the order of ceph -> rayn -> jat, or jat -> rayn -> ceph. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Hmm Well my vote doesn't make a difference, but I'll join in the Cephiro bandwagon just so that I can feel stupid too if he flips what he claimed ##vote: Cephiro | ||
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Chairman Ray
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##unvote Vote: Chairman Ray | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On October 25 2013 03:13 Cephiro wrote: You can't vote for yourself afaik. I can do that however. I'll leave my vote on CR unless someone wants it elsewhere. ##Vote Chairman Ray In TL Noir, I recall that LM managed to vote himself. I'll put the vote back on u if hosts say that I can't do this. Hopefully with yours and my vote, this will be enough if there needs to be a switch | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 25 2013 03:16 raynpelikonoshi wrote: K, now you better be scum and surrender. I'm not actually scum. I just think that if it gets down to lylo, then I'll be a liability since I'm basically a blank puzzle piece at endgame. I can't really do a lot of scumhunting, and there's little information everyone else knows about me. So it's better I flip early than later. If someone still has alignment checking powers, that would also be useful just to get me confirmed as town. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 25 2013 03:18 Skanjab1s wrote: It says in the OP that you can't vote yourself. Kay ##unvote ##vote: mocsta | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 25 2013 03:22 raynpelikonoshi wrote: So you play anti-town so that we lynch you and waste 72 hours? You could also just not lynch me and win before it gets to lylo. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
![[image loading]](http://images4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120312040904/rhfever/images/3/3f/Flipper_flop.png) | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 25 2013 03:34 raynpelikonoshi wrote: then help us instead of martyr.......... I'll try to help out once we see the flips today | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
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On October 25 2013 03:52 Skanjab1s wrote: Theres 3 scum still alive Chairman, dafuq! FIIINE ##unvote ##vote: skanjab1s | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 25 2013 04:02 Skanjab1s wrote: Make a case on the peeps you think are scummy, dont just switch votes buddy. It is rather scummy to just remove your vote as soon as you get questioned on it. We're right before the deadline and the vote is almost unanimously on Cephiro. My vote doesn't do anything at this point, and it's pretty clear that I'm not even voting seriously. I started off voting myself, and then swapping to a confirmed town, and then swapping to you, all without any explanation. You're putting way too much emphasis on my trollvoting and I'm starting to think that you are mafia trying to ensure my lynch on the next day. So if Cephiro flips scum, I'm not gonna martyr myself anymore, because I think we're bound to get at least one scum if we lynch you, and then holy (who also didn't like my trollvoting). | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
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On October 25 2013 05:45 Sn0_Man wrote: your self-preservation plays are pretty see through lol Well yes, I'm trying to preserve myself now that three blues just flipped. I honestly expected to get at least one scum. Now it looks like if we don't hit scum reliable, it will get to lylo in 3 days. If we want to do something like plow through huffle, it might take all three days. Getting myself lynched will just waste a very important day for town now. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 25 2013 05:54 Sn0_Man wrote: Whereas you don't wish to lynch into gryffindor because? Like, iunno rayn's role could be scum. This is so annoying. I think the interesting development is that both rayn and jat are suggesting that neither of them are scum. How do they both have this sort of confidence if one is scum and one is town? We should look into the possibility that they are both actually town, or both scum. If we lynch both of them, and then we plow through hufflepuff and hit the scum on the last guy, we lose a lot of time. Perhaps we should just lynch rayn alone, and whatever he flips, go through hufflepuff? I think that if there's only one scum in griff, it's rayn. If both are scum, we hit rayn anyways and can talk about jat later. If both are town, then we lose one day. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Just got a pm. I got roleblocked. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
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Sn0 is confirmed town I believe? Syllogism RBed me last night instead of any of the confirmed blues. Since I claimed vanilla town, from his perspective if he's town, then I would either be vanilla town or scum to him. If he's mafia, then I would be vanilla town to him. So roleblocking me was definitely a town thing to do, so I'm inclined to believe he's town. That leaves myself and Onegu. I'm town, so if jat's check is reliable, then Onegu must be the scum. I would lynch Onegu today, because he will flip scum and we don't have to waste a day lynching me. But knowing you guys, you guys will probably want to lynch me first, and that's also okay, as long as you guys get Onegu tomorrow. But I know that I'm town, so I would prefer Onegu lynch first. ##vote: Onegu | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
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On October 26 2013 08:35 Holyflare wrote: Not confirmed, but pretty much. Why? So neither rayn nor hopeless are confirmed? So the potion man could be a scum role as well? | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
So assuming that roleblock negates kp, and with 3 scum, that is 1.5kp right? Last night BH and I were rbed. Since I'm town, even if BH was mafia and he got rbed, then there would still be 1 mafia kp. That has to mean the the medic save worked, and BH is the only one who claimed medic. Sn0 the vengeant medic would have killed scum if his action worked. So that confirms BH as town, does it not? Well at least from my perspective, I have to flip for you guys to know it too. Anyways, Ima try to see how the game plays out: Using Sn0's role list, this is the setup for today On October 26 2013 03:35 Sn0_Man wrote: no list buuuuut. Sn0_Man - Vengeant Medic, confirmed Grackaroni - VT unconfirmed raynpelikonoshi - Candyman, at least partially confirmed Onegu - No claim syllogism - IC, also some sort of JAT. IC part confirmed Skanjab1s - No claim Blazinghand - Medic. Unconfirmed. Mocsta - Miller/JAT. Unconfirmed except for roleblock claim on BH justanothertownie - "random" roles, un-countered Vig claim. Hopeless1der - Potion man. Confirmed Holyflare - Extra vote. Unconfirmed. Chairman Ray - VT. Unconfirmed. So it's 9 town 3 mafia. The best thing for us to do today is to lynch me off, which will confirm Onegu as scum and BH as town. So post lynch, this will be the setup On October 26 2013 03:35 Sn0_Man wrote: no list buuuuut. Sn0_Man - Vengeant Medic, confirmed Grackaroni - VT unconfirmed raynpelikonoshi - Candyman, at least partially confirmed Onegu No claim syllogism - IC, also some sort of JAT. IC part confirmed Skanjab1s - No claim Blazinghand - Medic. Unconfirmed. Mocsta - Miller/JAT. Unconfirmed except for roleblock claim on BH justanothertownie - "random" roles, un-countered Vig claim. Hopeless1der - Potion man. Confirmed Holyflare - Extra vote. Unconfirmed. Kay, so during the nightphase, it will be 8 vs 3. Let's say mafia gets a kill. 7 vs 3. Next day we lynch Onegu. 7 vs 2. Mafia kills one. 6 vs 2. There are 5 unconfirmed in the bunch with 2 mafia in them. We know that there is one mafia within hufflepuff. So conversely that means there is one mafia outside of hufflepuff. That has to be either skan or rayn. So worst case scenario, we take 2 more days to lynch off the scum. Next lynch 5 vs 2. Night 4 vs 2. Lynch 4 vs 1. Night 3 vs 1. We have two medics alive (BH and Sn0), and as long as they keep healing each other, then out of the 4 people left, 2 are confirmed town who are medics. So worst case scenario from there it takes 2 days to kill the last guy. Lynch results in 2 vs 1. Mafia can't do shit against two medics, so the next day town wins. So in short, this is what we can do to guarantee a victory: 1. Lynch me today, I flip town, confirming Onegu as mafia and BH as town 2. During night, BH and Sn0 use their medic abilities on each other 3. Lynch Onegu tomorrow 4. Lynch every unconfirmed town one by one, who cares about reads, the math is in our favor 5. As long as neither BH and Sn0 die to lynches, town wins I think | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 26 2013 09:04 Chairman Ray wrote: + Show Spoiler + Firstly, I am definitely the best lynch for today. Lynch me, don't need to debate it. Next thing, you can feel free to ignore the rest of this post until I flip. Doesn't do a lot of good right now. So assuming that roleblock negates kp, and with 3 scum, that is 1.5kp right? Last night BH and I were rbed. Since I'm town, even if BH was mafia and he got rbed, then there would still be 1 mafia kp. That has to mean the the medic save worked, and BH is the only one who claimed medic. Sn0 the vengeant medic would have killed scum if his action worked. So that confirms BH as town, does it not? Well at least from my perspective, I have to flip for you guys to know it too. Anyways, Ima try to see how the game plays out: Using Sn0's role list, this is the setup for today On October 26 2013 03:35 Sn0_Man wrote: no list buuuuut. Sn0_Man - Vengeant Medic, confirmed Grackaroni - VT unconfirmed raynpelikonoshi - Candyman, at least partially confirmed Onegu - No claim syllogism - IC, also some sort of JAT. IC part confirmed Skanjab1s - No claim Blazinghand - Medic. Unconfirmed. Mocsta - Miller/JAT. Unconfirmed except for roleblock claim on BH justanothertownie - "random" roles, un-countered Vig claim. Hopeless1der - Potion man. Confirmed Holyflare - Extra vote. Unconfirmed. Chairman Ray - VT. Unconfirmed. So it's 9 town 3 mafia. The best thing for us to do today is to lynch me off, which will confirm Onegu as scum and BH as town. So post lynch, this will be the setup On October 26 2013 03:35 Sn0_Man wrote: no list buuuuut. Sn0_Man - Vengeant Medic, confirmed Grackaroni - VT unconfirmed raynpelikonoshi - Candyman, at least partially confirmed Onegu No claim syllogism - IC, also some sort of JAT. IC part confirmed Skanjab1s - No claim Blazinghand - Medic. Unconfirmed. Mocsta - Miller/JAT. Unconfirmed except for roleblock claim on BH justanothertownie - "random" roles, un-countered Vig claim. Hopeless1der - Potion man. Confirmed Holyflare - Extra vote. Unconfirmed. Kay, so during the nightphase, it will be 8 vs 3. Let's say mafia gets a kill. 7 vs 3. Next day we lynch Onegu. 7 vs 2. Mafia kills one. 6 vs 2. There are 5 unconfirmed in the bunch with 2 mafia in them. We know that there is one mafia within hufflepuff. So conversely that means there is one mafia outside of hufflepuff. That has to be either skan or rayn. So worst case scenario, we take 2 more days to lynch off the scum. Next lynch 5 vs 2. Night 4 vs 2. Lynch 4 vs 1. Night 3 vs 1. We have two medics alive (BH and Sn0), and as long as they keep healing each other, then out of the 4 people left, 2 are confirmed town who are medics. So worst case scenario from there it takes 2 days to kill the last guy. Lynch results in 2 vs 1. Mafia can't do shit against two medics, so the next day town wins. So in short, this is what we can do to guarantee a victory: 1. Lynch me today, I flip town, confirming Onegu as mafia and BH as town 2. During night, BH and Sn0 use their medic abilities on each other 3. Lynch Onegu tomorrow 4. Lynch every unconfirmed town one by one, who cares about reads, the math is in our favor 5. As long as neither BH and Sn0 die to lynches, town wins I think EDIT: Wait, I made a mistake. If BH was roleblocked last night, then he couldn't have use a medic save on anybody. Without that medic save, I don't know how nobody died last night. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 26 2013 09:29 Grackaroni wrote: CR, it's interesting how you are taking the red check on Ravenclaw as a 100% factual and not the red check on Gryffindor. Yeah I guess you're right. My flip doesn't guarantee Onegu... Hmm, I might have to reconsider | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
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So anyways, sorry I wasn't able to be very active this game. I told the hosts that I was only able to play an hour a day, and I guess we thought it was better than nothing. I was going to spend that hour a day catching up on the thread, but the day I replaced in, I was somehow already getting lynched. Even though I was leading in votes, the secret vote saved me last second. Afterwards people were calling for a vig on me. I was under the impression that I was either going to die during the night or get lynched the day after, so if I only have an hour a day, I'm not gonna be able to read the entire thread before I die, so I would rather just use that hour to find some way to save myself. My plan was basically to play really shitty town. Do things like not interact with people and martyr over and over again. Since there were only strong players left and being mafia meant that I would have two mafia teammates, there were no two people here that would let me play like this. After being a bit useless, or martyring once, the two other mafia would give me a verbal spanking and get me to play better. Nobody would allow me to martyr again and again. I was hoping this would be picked up and people would let me slip by as shitty town rather than scum. I guess I didn't play it very well and it didn't work out. Oh well. Fun game overall though, and I loved the challenges. I'll definitely be back after a couple months when my schedule clears up a bit since mafia is quite fun. GG! | ||
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