EPTOn October 26 2013 08:35 Holyflare wrote:
Not confirmed, but pretty much. Why?
Not confirmed, but pretty much. Why?
So neither rayn nor hopeless are confirmed? So the potion man could be a scum role as well?
Hogwarts Mafia - Page 219
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
So neither rayn nor hopeless are confirmed? So the potion man could be a scum role as well? | ||
|
Grackaroni
United States9855 Posts
| ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
| ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
| ||
|
Grackaroni
United States9855 Posts
| ||
|
justanothertownie
16321 Posts
On October 26 2013 08:47 Grackaroni wrote: People have no idea how much it bugs that I accuse Skanjab of having weak justification for a vote change off of his scum read and contradictions and I get ignored. But then Mocsta writes that Skanjab1s case on Sn0 Man was weak. (It was actually quite reasonable; Switching from a scumread on to a policy lynch proposed by your previous scum read is scummy) and then cherry picks some one-liners and says Skanjab doesn't care about the lynch and that constitutes a good case. I could find quotes exactly like that in every single town game Palmar has ever played in or even from my own filter this game. I remember not ignoring that. Weird. | ||
|
Grackaroni
United States9855 Posts
On October 26 2013 08:56 justanothertownie wrote: I remember not ignoring that. Weird. yeah you're right.  | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On October 26 2013 08:47 Grackaroni wrote: keep RB him lol. Final member is extremely likely to be HF/BH. Sigh just read that Cr was RB too. OK.. well ##Vote: Chairman_Ray Im out for prob 24hrs, sory. | ||
|
Grackaroni
United States9855 Posts
And BH yelled that it's all irrelevant because the players are unflipped. (that doesn't mean you just ignore people with poor reasoning for a vote switch, especially in such a contested lynch) Syllo said nothing. | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
So assuming that roleblock negates kp, and with 3 scum, that is 1.5kp right? Last night BH and I were rbed. Since I'm town, even if BH was mafia and he got rbed, then there would still be 1 mafia kp. That has to mean the the medic save worked, and BH is the only one who claimed medic. Sn0 the vengeant medic would have killed scum if his action worked. So that confirms BH as town, does it not? Well at least from my perspective, I have to flip for you guys to know it too. Anyways, Ima try to see how the game plays out: Using Sn0's role list, this is the setup for today On October 26 2013 03:35 Sn0_Man wrote: no list buuuuut. Sn0_Man - Vengeant Medic, confirmed Grackaroni - VT unconfirmed raynpelikonoshi - Candyman, at least partially confirmed Onegu - No claim syllogism - IC, also some sort of JAT. IC part confirmed Skanjab1s - No claim Blazinghand - Medic. Unconfirmed. Mocsta - Miller/JAT. Unconfirmed except for roleblock claim on BH justanothertownie - "random" roles, un-countered Vig claim. Hopeless1der - Potion man. Confirmed Holyflare - Extra vote. Unconfirmed. Chairman Ray - VT. Unconfirmed. So it's 9 town 3 mafia. The best thing for us to do today is to lynch me off, which will confirm Onegu as scum and BH as town. So post lynch, this will be the setup On October 26 2013 03:35 Sn0_Man wrote: no list buuuuut. Sn0_Man - Vengeant Medic, confirmed Grackaroni - VT unconfirmed raynpelikonoshi - Candyman, at least partially confirmed Onegu No claim syllogism - IC, also some sort of JAT. IC part confirmed Skanjab1s - No claim Blazinghand - Medic. Unconfirmed. Mocsta - Miller/JAT. Unconfirmed except for roleblock claim on BH justanothertownie - "random" roles, un-countered Vig claim. Hopeless1der - Potion man. Confirmed Holyflare - Extra vote. Unconfirmed. Kay, so during the nightphase, it will be 8 vs 3. Let's say mafia gets a kill. 7 vs 3. Next day we lynch Onegu. 7 vs 2. Mafia kills one. 6 vs 2. There are 5 unconfirmed in the bunch with 2 mafia in them. We know that there is one mafia within hufflepuff. So conversely that means there is one mafia outside of hufflepuff. That has to be either skan or rayn. So worst case scenario, we take 2 more days to lynch off the scum. Next lynch 5 vs 2. Night 4 vs 2. Lynch 4 vs 1. Night 3 vs 1. We have two medics alive (BH and Sn0), and as long as they keep healing each other, then out of the 4 people left, 2 are confirmed town who are medics. So worst case scenario from there it takes 2 days to kill the last guy. Lynch results in 2 vs 1. Mafia can't do shit against two medics, so the next day town wins. So in short, this is what we can do to guarantee a victory: 1. Lynch me today, I flip town, confirming Onegu as mafia and BH as town 2. During night, BH and Sn0 use their medic abilities on each other 3. Lynch Onegu tomorrow 4. Lynch every unconfirmed town one by one, who cares about reads, the math is in our favor 5. As long as neither BH and Sn0 die to lynches, town wins I think | ||
|
Grackaroni
United States9855 Posts
| ||
|
Grackaroni
United States9855 Posts
| ||
|
Skanjab1s
748 Posts
Surprise Surprise ##24 hour day | ||
|
Skanjab1s
748 Posts
On October 26 2013 08:21 Holyflare wrote:I have looked into other people and I noticed skanjabs having lots of inconsistencies and also being very dismissive of other peoples poimts raised not only against him but against some other people (scum) . (1) Obviously I am dismissive of points raised against me. This isn't a reason for being scum, its a reason for being logical. (2) Please quote examples of where I have dismissed points against scum. | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 26 2013 09:04 Chairman Ray wrote: + Show Spoiler + Firstly, I am definitely the best lynch for today. Lynch me, don't need to debate it. Next thing, you can feel free to ignore the rest of this post until I flip. Doesn't do a lot of good right now. So assuming that roleblock negates kp, and with 3 scum, that is 1.5kp right? Last night BH and I were rbed. Since I'm town, even if BH was mafia and he got rbed, then there would still be 1 mafia kp. That has to mean the the medic save worked, and BH is the only one who claimed medic. Sn0 the vengeant medic would have killed scum if his action worked. So that confirms BH as town, does it not? Well at least from my perspective, I have to flip for you guys to know it too. Anyways, Ima try to see how the game plays out: Using Sn0's role list, this is the setup for today On October 26 2013 03:35 Sn0_Man wrote: no list buuuuut. Sn0_Man - Vengeant Medic, confirmed Grackaroni - VT unconfirmed raynpelikonoshi - Candyman, at least partially confirmed Onegu - No claim syllogism - IC, also some sort of JAT. IC part confirmed Skanjab1s - No claim Blazinghand - Medic. Unconfirmed. Mocsta - Miller/JAT. Unconfirmed except for roleblock claim on BH justanothertownie - "random" roles, un-countered Vig claim. Hopeless1der - Potion man. Confirmed Holyflare - Extra vote. Unconfirmed. Chairman Ray - VT. Unconfirmed. So it's 9 town 3 mafia. The best thing for us to do today is to lynch me off, which will confirm Onegu as scum and BH as town. So post lynch, this will be the setup On October 26 2013 03:35 Sn0_Man wrote: no list buuuuut. Sn0_Man - Vengeant Medic, confirmed Grackaroni - VT unconfirmed raynpelikonoshi - Candyman, at least partially confirmed Onegu No claim syllogism - IC, also some sort of JAT. IC part confirmed Skanjab1s - No claim Blazinghand - Medic. Unconfirmed. Mocsta - Miller/JAT. Unconfirmed except for roleblock claim on BH justanothertownie - "random" roles, un-countered Vig claim. Hopeless1der - Potion man. Confirmed Holyflare - Extra vote. Unconfirmed. Kay, so during the nightphase, it will be 8 vs 3. Let's say mafia gets a kill. 7 vs 3. Next day we lynch Onegu. 7 vs 2. Mafia kills one. 6 vs 2. There are 5 unconfirmed in the bunch with 2 mafia in them. We know that there is one mafia within hufflepuff. So conversely that means there is one mafia outside of hufflepuff. That has to be either skan or rayn. So worst case scenario, we take 2 more days to lynch off the scum. Next lynch 5 vs 2. Night 4 vs 2. Lynch 4 vs 1. Night 3 vs 1. We have two medics alive (BH and Sn0), and as long as they keep healing each other, then out of the 4 people left, 2 are confirmed town who are medics. So worst case scenario from there it takes 2 days to kill the last guy. Lynch results in 2 vs 1. Mafia can't do shit against two medics, so the next day town wins. So in short, this is what we can do to guarantee a victory: 1. Lynch me today, I flip town, confirming Onegu as mafia and BH as town 2. During night, BH and Sn0 use their medic abilities on each other 3. Lynch Onegu tomorrow 4. Lynch every unconfirmed town one by one, who cares about reads, the math is in our favor 5. As long as neither BH and Sn0 die to lynches, town wins I think EDIT: Wait, I made a mistake. If BH was roleblocked last night, then he couldn't have use a medic save on anybody. Without that medic save, I don't know how nobody died last night. | ||
|
Grackaroni
United States9855 Posts
| ||
|
Skanjab1s
748 Posts
On October 26 2013 09:50 Grackaroni wrote: Can you throw out a guess for the scum team Skan? CR and Holyflare, then the last dude I just don't know. Occam's razor suggests its a dude from gryffindor, and I don't think that anyone in my house is scum, but rayn doesn't seem like scum to me at all, and JAT has his lonemeow shot. Yeah I have no idea who the last one could be :/. | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 26 2013 09:29 Grackaroni wrote: CR, it's interesting how you are taking the red check on Ravenclaw as a 100% factual and not the red check on Gryffindor. Yeah I guess you're right. My flip doesn't guarantee Onegu... Hmm, I might have to reconsider | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
| ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
| ||
| ||
