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GoT Mafia: Lords and Liars - Page 25

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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 17 2013 22:28 GMT
#4198
Although I feel like the Lord KP will be used inefficiently... At least this should most likely reduce scum KP.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 17 2013 22:34 GMT
#4199
On August 18 2013 06:30 Clarity_nl wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 18 2013 06:01 Risen wrote:
I couldn't be a useful Lord this cycle and had to choose whether I should have no Lord or rayn Lord. Rayn Lord with a shot seemed a good compromise


Just came back to say this is the dumbest thing I've ever fucking heard.


You should have seen Risen in the previous GoT Mafia. If possible, it might have been even dumber. This sums it up well:

[image loading]

On second thought, that latest comment by Risen might be just a little bit dumber. It's not easy to say with the amount of stupid that he creates.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 09:38 GMT
#4207
On August 18 2013 16:59 Clarity_nl wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 18 2013 10:58 Risen wrote:
So Sharrant appears scummy and is relatively useless (in a what has this person contributed kind of way, not insulting), but gets a red check and since that guys posting is scummy we lynch him. Sharrant is still scummy but gives us another red check on someone who has somewhere around zero percent chance of being framed. That person flips green prior to our lynch today and we're not lynching him because an increasingly useless (not insulting, just mean to say DI was good according to the thread and has dropped off) DI says they used house check....

What has DI done to instill such trust? Has anyone looked at what potentially happens when a town mocsta gets lynched? Who's left alive in that house? A lone Onegu.

Regardless, you guys sit on that. Just went into johnny's filter trying to find house member list and found...


If town shot sharrant they should claim it. If they don't, and sharrant flips green, DI is confirmed scum. Scum don't shoot themselves.

It's kind of like we lynched mocsta and we flipped green and then we lynched sharrant, except for the fact that sharrant is apparently town. So yes, mocsta modkilling himself like a tool is beneficial for us and that makes me sad.

Everyone is aware onegu is left alone in that house. What do you want us to do about it? It's not like scum mocsta, he killed himself. Do you think it was scum's plan for mocsta to modkill himself?

I've been doubtful of DI all game, but everytime he has come to some kind of conclusion, even if he doesn't share his reasoning which is dumb from a town perspective, I tend to agree with the conclusion.

Show nested quote +
On August 18 2013 07:00 Grackaroni wrote:
Shits going down. I'm content to lynch Johnnywup since we won't even get him in lord shots tonight and he has the best chance of anyone to flip scum.

I did use my pm's, I talked a whole bunch with Mocsta to try to get a better read on him because I wasn't confident he would flip scum when everybody else was throwing him to the wolves. I also talked a bit to Rayn and he seemed to be genuinely convinced Mocsta was scum so I don't think he is the best lynch for today,

##Vote: Johnnywup


I'd like to point out that this is fucking sketchy.
Has anyone that's been in pms with grack had a townie feeling off of him?

Grack why are you not in the thread doing shit. Or johnny, or sharrant.
Like fuck.


I think town and scum are somewhat even right now and it's basically a race towards the "average". We kill the most scummy/useless players one by one (some flip scum, some town), scum apparently prefer to kill several townies in one go every other night. At MYLO/LYLO we will have no clearly scummy/useless OR clearly town players left. So in the end, the game will be decided between the worst townies and the best players of the scumteam. I kind of agree with Ace's signature text. At first glance, scum seem to have the advantage in that situation... But on the other hand, by then there's SO much information available, that even the worst townies should have an easier time.

Now into how that applies to this game... The only remaining *clearly* scummy/useless player is johnnywup. I don't think he's done a single pro-town action so far. Then it's pretty logical to lynch him today. After that, several townies will be killed (most likely Sharrant and Clarity, since they apparently already have low HP, and probably me as well). If Sharrant lives through tonight, we can start doubting DI's word, but for now I certainly see no reason for doubt (his scum meta is so different from this playstyle).

The most logical situation tomorrow, though, is that johnnywup+Sharrant+Clarity+me (0-1 scum, 3-4 town) are dead. After that I only really trust s0Lstice and DI (especially if Sharrant dies, DI = 100% town). They should be Lords tomorrow for sure. Maybe Onegu and Koshi... But not 100% confident in them at the moment.

That leaves snb, rayn, Acro, Chromatically, Risen, Grackaroni. The remaining scum (2-4) are among these 6 with 90+% certainty. Of course the real question is: which of them are innocent and which are not?

Grackaroni: I have a gutfeeling that he is town. He's appeared sincere and thoughtful in our PM conversations. The worrying part is that he's been quite inactive in the thread and hasn't even really pushed his opinions. Apparently he's also been pretty inactive in PM land, which makes me sad. There's a reasonable chance of scum, but I don't think he's an optimal Lord KP or lynch for now. Verdict: give more time

Risen: Somehow I feel like he's a real coinflip. 50/50 town/scum. For some reason I just can't read him properly - I would have absolutely thought he was scum in the previous GoT game if I had been town (I was scum, he was town). One moment I think he's scum, the next moment I think he's town. I think ALL(?) of his push targets so far have been town (rayn is a question mark though). Combined with his extremely weak reasoning, it could well be just justifying his scumreads on players he knew were town. But on the other hand, he really might just be that stupid (like in the previous GoT Mafia). I basically just want to kill him to get rid of the annoyance of his anti-town play and the impossibility of reading him accurately. Verdict: Lord KP

Chromatically: There's a PM reason that increases his chance of being town, but otherwise he hasn't really left an impression on me. Probably not scum with Risen for trying to convince me that Risen's thinking was purely scum motivated. He should be kept under surveillance, but not KP'd or lynched in the near future. Verdict: give more time

Acro: Started the game weakly and wishy-washily (partly explained by the roleplaying, I guess). Slightly resisted the Vivax lynch. My gut says scum, my head says: he can't be scum with rayn, can he? So if rayn is scummy, doesn't that mean that he's more likely town? Verdict: no idea at the moment

rayn: Has chosen to focus on bluehunting, spamming, scumhunting with weak reasoning and intentionally lurking through important phases of the game. My gut says scum, my head says scum. Verdict: lynch

snb: Has done almost nothing outside of being forced to post. Even then, only after going into a turtle defense mode for countless pages. And then there's the host WIFOM thing with him not being modkilled yet despite several breaches of the rules (posting during night, not voting etc.). Verdict: lynch

Somehow I still think that it might be better to finish off johnnywup with KP and lynch snb/rayn/Risen. johnnywup already has (slight) damage and every Lord at least should be able to agree with focusing on him. I'm not sure if everyone would agree about Risen or especially about rayn/snb. But I'm okay with something like lynching johnnywup and KP'ing Risen, I guess.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 09:52 GMT
#4209
Damn, I wish I just had a multi-shot daygun. I'd shoot johnnywup, snb, rayn and Risen immediately. I'm pretty sure we'd just win right there and then.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 09:55 GMT
#4210
On August 18 2013 18:51 Clarity_nl wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 18 2013 18:15 Risen wrote:
"Everyone is aware onegu is left alone in that house. What do you want us to do about it? It's not like scum mocsta, he killed himself. Do you think it was scum's plan for mocsta to modkill himself?"

I'm implying that one of two things is happening.

1) Mafia is setting up the lynch on Mocsta today with a red check from shar and used KP on onegu last night and will be finishing him off tonight.
2) Onegu is scumlord and the red check is to prevent mocsta from screwing with the vote so scum could control a house.


This relies on onegu sharrant and DI all being on the scumteam.
...which actually doesn't sound that farfetched.

I wish I could bring myself to put some more effort in this game at this point, however.
I'm just kinda posting and going off memory, I really can't bring myself to re-read stuff right now.... I will do so tonight, though.


Hmm. Does anyone else have an HP check left to confirm that Sharrant has low HP? Otherwise we should see the truth tomorrow (unless scum want to risk the pretty big risk of Sharrant actually doing regular alignment checks every day and just lying about the HP check thing for when he was roleblocked).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 10:03 GMT
#4212
On August 18 2013 18:57 Clarity_nl wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 18 2013 18:55 Xatalos wrote:
On August 18 2013 18:51 Clarity_nl wrote:
On August 18 2013 18:15 Risen wrote:
"Everyone is aware onegu is left alone in that house. What do you want us to do about it? It's not like scum mocsta, he killed himself. Do you think it was scum's plan for mocsta to modkill himself?"

I'm implying that one of two things is happening.

1) Mafia is setting up the lynch on Mocsta today with a red check from shar and used KP on onegu last night and will be finishing him off tonight.
2) Onegu is scumlord and the red check is to prevent mocsta from screwing with the vote so scum could control a house.


This relies on onegu sharrant and DI all being on the scumteam.
...which actually doesn't sound that farfetched.

I wish I could bring myself to put some more effort in this game at this point, however.
I'm just kinda posting and going off memory, I really can't bring myself to re-read stuff right now.... I will do so tonight, though.


Hmm. Does anyone else have an HP check left to confirm that Sharrant has low HP? Otherwise we should see the truth tomorrow (unless scum want to risk the pretty big risk of Sharrant actually doing regular alignment checks every day and just lying about the HP check thing for when he was roleblocked).


I do..... wait...


Lol
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 10:05 GMT
#4213
Although somehow I doubt DI, as scum, would sacrifice himself to give Sharrant a bit more time. So it just doesn't seem likely in any case.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 10:17 GMT
#4215
Grackaroni did PM me before Mocsta gave up though. He said something like "I've been PM'ing with Mocsta and I'm not convinced he's scum. Acro has been acting strangely and Sharrant+Acro scumteam could be the case. Trying to PM with Acro before making conclusions."

Was there ever a Grackaroni-Acro PM conversation? How did it go?

Can anyone confirm that Grackaroni has been PMing with them? What impression did he give?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 10:20 GMT
#4216
I must say I'm disappointed in the current Lord of House Lannister in any case. He has just posted a couple of posts so far without really making any difference in the game. It seems like he hasn't really used his PM ability either.....
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 10:23 GMT
#4217
Let's just say that Grackaroni has went from slightly town during N3 to null, or even slightly scummy during today. Maybe it was good to give him this chance after all. It was so hard to determine his real intentions just from nightly PMs.

Grackaroni, get back here!!!
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 10:26 GMT
#4218
[image loading]
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 10:30 GMT
#4219
On August 17 2013 23:31 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2013 23:08 Xatalos wrote:
rayn, who do you propose outside of snb/Mocsta/johnnywup? Mocsta and johnnywup are half-dead so no point in lynching them.



Really you have to ask him? You not been following? Also I shared info I had how come I dont get to bee a seal?

Second risen was pushing a sharrant lynch hard in thread and thats who he wanted dead in PMs also.


LOL. Now that I think about it, Onegu had a pretty similar "townslip" in NWM. Basically someone posted that there had been big topics of discussion for that day and listed a couple of players. Onegu replied with "Me too". Then someone said "I had some doubts about Onegu, but this post forces me to believe he's town." I get the same feeling from that seal comment for some reason :D
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 10:34 GMT
#4221
On August 18 2013 07:00 Grackaroni wrote:
Shits going down. I'm content to lynch Johnnywup since we won't even get him in lord shots tonight and he has the best chance of anyone to flip scum.

I did use my pm's, I talked a whole bunch with Mocsta to try to get a better read on him because I wasn't confident he would flip scum when everybody else was throwing him to the wolves. I also talked a bit to Rayn and he seemed to be genuinely convinced Mocsta was scum so I don't think he is the best lynch for today,

##Vote: Johnnywup


At first look... This really does look like a cheap stab at the players who pushed Mocsta / a cheap grab for town credibility. But the fact that Grackaroni did PM me about it earlier makes me less sure.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 10:37 GMT
#4222
On August 18 2013 19:32 Dandel Ion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 18 2013 19:30 Xatalos wrote:
On August 17 2013 23:31 Onegu wrote:
On August 17 2013 23:08 Xatalos wrote:
rayn, who do you propose outside of snb/Mocsta/johnnywup? Mocsta and johnnywup are half-dead so no point in lynching them.



Really you have to ask him? You not been following? Also I shared info I had how come I dont get to bee a seal?

Second risen was pushing a sharrant lynch hard in thread and thats who he wanted dead in PMs also.


LOL. Now that I think about it, Onegu had a pretty similar "townslip" in NWM. Basically someone posted that there had been big topics of discussion for that day and listed a couple of players. Onegu replied with "Me too". Then someone said "I had some doubts about Onegu, but this post forces me to believe he's town." I get the same feeling from that seal comment for some reason :D

i dont get it


Basically... A spontaneous/genuine feeling comment that shows a townie mindset (not afraid of the spotlight, actually even WANTING to get more into the spotlight in both cases, NWM and this game). It's not that hard to fake a single sentence, but I think it's more likely a completely unplanned thing. I've played like 50/50 of my games town or scum and I know for a fact it's so much harder to fake "emotions" as scum.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 10:47 GMT
#4223
Okay, so now you can count Clarity, s0Lstice, DI and Onegu into the town circlejerk. Koshi is currently under review for inclusion or removal.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 13:48 GMT
#4224
Somehow... This game has succumbed to a lurkfest. I was surprised to see no posts when I came to check after several hours. Or maybe it's true what DrParnassus said about slow weekends....

Any comments about my last big post?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 14:33 GMT
#4226
On August 18 2013 23:03 Clarity_nl wrote:
I'm going with dandel on this one I don't really get why onegu trying to be part of the towncircle makes him town.


Not for certain, but it just feels like more of a townie mindset to draw attention to himself in the thread. Also there's the similar sincere tone that was in his PMs. It's more of a gut feeling though, nothing conclusive or objective.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 21:14 GMT
#4336
What's the votecount?

Looks like a lot has happened... But I agree that if Sharrant needs to be killed, and he's most likely at very low HP, there's just no reason to lynch him. KP should be used at most. Although I think it's extremely unlikely that Sharrant could be scum without DI being scum, and DI being scum seems pretty unlikely as well.

Onegu is also a really bad lynch. He's pretty likely town, much more likely than half of the players who are left.

I think johnnywup is the best choice. It helps that my scumreads (rayn, Risen) are trying their best to get the lynch off of him.

Grackaroni, don't use your vote on Sharrant... If anything, he should be finished with KP. Although even that seems more like doing scum's work for them. And you would also have to declare DI as (extremely likely) scum by voting for Sharrant. Does that really seem likely?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 21:26 GMT
#4337
Usually I'd be all for shooting Sharrant... But I just don't think DI is lying and sacrificing himself to (uncertainly) give Sharrant more time. I just don't see it happening.

johnnywup gogogo
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 18 2013 21:31 GMT
#4338
Actually this recent back-and-forth makes me feel better about johnnywup flipping scum. It would have been more worrying if it went through without disturbances.

Clarity, do you really think Onegu is scum from our PMs with him? Why did he just casually reveal information and say all kinds of stuff that he didn't need to as scum at all...?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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