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Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
August 02 2013 20:51 GMT
#3661
1) RB on rayn
2) XRZ gives red check on me
3) Kill Vayne
= I get lynched 100% certain?


That and the fact that XRZ should never buss his own teammate if he is going to give up being cop so easily. arfffffffff
I had a good night of sleep.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
August 02 2013 20:53 GMT
#3662
On August 03 2013 05:46 Stutters695 wrote:
Rayn quick question for you now that everything is out there. Haven't you claimed a PR before as VT? If so what was your mindset in doing it and why isn't it something XRZ would consider. I'm a little concerned that he would fess up to fake claiming after just getting a scum lynch if he was scum since he's almost confirmed cop if he plays it out, spoon feeds town reads through checks knowingwho is town.

If it wasn't you who fake claimed disregard that part but can you reason with me on why this is a good play for scum XRZ to make?


If Exar is town then it was not a good scum move, it was a desperate scum move. We need to figure out why before we can say that Exar is town.

Malongo was a goon and the least active player. He would be worth trading for another scum but not necessarily worth the risk of trading him when it also puts Exar at risk. Therefore I see two scenarios of why scum-Exar would do it.

Either:

Cora is GF. Exar sacced Mal to save Cora, thinking that if Cora flipped GF then town might deduce that their is no roleblocker and therefore Clarity would end up lynched (so this one assumes that Clarity is scum).

Or:

FT is Roleblocker. Exar sacced Mal to save FT knowing that if FT flipped RBer then Clarity would be confirmed town and that would leave scum in a situation where we had 1 confirmed town, 1 confirmed cop and 1 confirmed Vet.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
August 02 2013 20:54 GMT
#3663
atm it is 9 vs 3

If they lynch town
8 vs 3
night kill
7 vs 3
xrz lynch
7 vs 2
night kills
6 vs 2 with a lot of confirmed townies? hmm. Ok that isn't good for scum.
I had a good night of sleep.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
August 02 2013 20:55 GMT
#3664
On August 03 2013 05:51 Koshi wrote:
1) RB on rayn
2) XRZ gives red check on me
3) Kill Vayne
= I get lynched 100% certain?


That and the fact that XRZ should never buss his own teammate if he is going to give up being cop so easily. arfffffffff


And after you flip green Exar gets lynched and then we have associations between both Exar and Mal to look at.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
August 02 2013 20:57 GMT
#3665
On August 03 2013 05:53 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 03 2013 05:46 Stutters695 wrote:
Rayn quick question for you now that everything is out there. Haven't you claimed a PR before as VT? If so what was your mindset in doing it and why isn't it something XRZ would consider. I'm a little concerned that he would fess up to fake claiming after just getting a scum lynch if he was scum since he's almost confirmed cop if he plays it out, spoon feeds town reads through checks knowingwho is town.

If it wasn't you who fake claimed disregard that part but can you reason with me on why this is a good play for scum XRZ to make?


If Exar is town then it was not a good scum move, it was a desperate scum move. We need to figure out why before we can say that Exar is town.

Malongo was a goon and the least active player. He would be worth trading for another scum but not necessarily worth the risk of trading him when it also puts Exar at risk. Therefore I see two scenarios of why scum-Exar would do it.

Either:

Cora is GF. Exar sacced Mal to save Cora, thinking that if Cora flipped GF then town might deduce that their is no roleblocker and therefore Clarity would end up lynched (so this one assumes that Clarity is scum).

Or:

FT is Roleblocker. Exar sacced Mal to save FT knowing that if FT flipped RBer then Clarity would be confirmed town and that would leave scum in a situation where we had 1 confirmed town, 1 confirmed cop and 1 confirmed Vet.


Ok this is probably the truth. As in almost 100% certain.
I had a good night of sleep.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
August 02 2013 20:58 GMT
#3666
EBWOP on that big post: If Exar is scum*
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
August 02 2013 21:13 GMT
#3667
Hz: why does XRZ give up on the charade? He can ride that for town for days at the expense of sacrificing their RB to keep him "perma-blocked". The only way that plan falls flat is if Clarity flips scum and gives away that they don't have an RB. Saying he faked the check puts himself into major shit and if he flips scum it practically guarantees he bussed Mal to save Cora or FT(probably Cora) and scum is losing three members in four days. It doesn't make sense.
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
August 02 2013 21:15 GMT
#3668
I'm just trying to wrap my head around it.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
August 02 2013 21:17 GMT
#3669
hzflank I think that in your example Cora is the scum. His behavior during the FT lynch is not normal, so maybe he knew that FT was green and was already setting himself up for a rayn lynch after in lylo. XRZ also said he played a lot of speedgames so he is capable to make fast decisions.

So my scumteam would be XRZ, Cora, Clarity/JAT

JAT could also be a scum. There is a lot of defense coming from JAT towards XRZ. JAT also said he could phone XRZ if I am not mistaken? XRZ defended JAT before (he once said we should lynch Malongo before JAT, really early in day 2, and without a cop check)

Is it really impossible that scum has RB/godfather as their 2 powerroles? It looks like they don't have a janitor. How many roles do scum normally have in these games?
I had a good night of sleep.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
August 02 2013 21:19 GMT
#3670
On August 03 2013 06:13 Stutters695 wrote:
Hz: why does XRZ give up on the charade? He can ride that for town for days at the expense of sacrificing their RB to keep him "perma-blocked". The only way that plan falls flat is if Clarity flips scum and gives away that they don't have an RB. Saying he faked the check puts himself into major shit and if he flips scum it practically guarantees he bussed Mal to save Cora or FT(probably Cora) and scum is losing three members in four days. It doesn't make sense.

Yeah... This is true as well.

Jeezus what a game...
I had a good night of sleep.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
August 02 2013 21:19 GMT
#3671
On August 03 2013 05:46 Stutters695 wrote:
Rayn quick question for you now that everything is out there. Haven't you claimed a PR before as VT? If so what was your mindset in doing it and why isn't it something XRZ would consider. I'm a little concerned that he would fess up to fake claiming after just getting a scum lynch if he was scum since he's almost confirmed cop if he plays it out, spoon feeds town reads through checks knowingwho is town.

If it wasn't you who fake claimed disregard that part but can you reason with me on why this is a good play for scum XRZ to make?

I don´t remember claiming PR as VT, other than NWM. But that situation was entirely different and over phase fakeclaims as town are fucking stupid!
table for two on a tv tray
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
August 02 2013 21:20 GMT
#3672
On August 03 2013 06:13 Stutters695 wrote:
Hz: why does XRZ give up on the charade? He can ride that for town for days at the expense of sacrificing their RB to keep him "perma-blocked". The only way that plan falls flat is if Clarity flips scum and gives away that they don't have an RB. Saying he faked the check puts himself into major shit and if he flips scum it practically guarantees he bussed Mal to save Cora or FT(probably Cora) and scum is losing three members in four days. It doesn't make sense.


I agree that it does not fully make sense. Also, why did Exar claim cop instead of Cora or FT? Exar completely kept himself out of it.

The best I can come up with is a massive series of assumptions.

FT is RBer. FT had already claimed VT so could not claim cop. Scum thought that Vayne was doctor. Scum thought that Vayne would doc Rayn so Rayn would get his check off. If FT flipped roleblocker then we have a bunch of confirmed town and Rayn can get a check off while they killed doctor-Vayne. With so many confirmed town then Rayn would have a decent chance of hitting scum.

Even if FT avoided the lynch there was a good chance that Rayn would cop check FT (scum wanted to shoot doctor-Vayne), since Rayn was pushing FT hard on D2. By Exar claiming cop he could potentially discredit Rayn as well as temporarily saving FT.

Even then it would make more sense for scum to RB Rayn instead of Exar and for Exar to give us a green check on someone. The best I have is that they panicked when Vayne flipped VT instead of Doctor.

There are still gaping holes in all of this.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
August 02 2013 21:24 GMT
#3673
On August 03 2013 06:13 Stutters695 wrote:
Hz: why does XRZ give up on the charade? He can ride that for town for days at the expense of sacrificing their RB to keep him "perma-blocked". The only way that plan falls flat is if Clarity flips scum and gives away that they don't have an RB. Saying he faked the check puts himself into major shit and if he flips scum it practically guarantees he bussed Mal to save Cora or FT(probably Cora) and scum is losing three members in four days. It doesn't make sense.

No he can´t because when i die he can´t possibly justify himself being alive because he had a red check and got scum lynched.
table for two on a tv tray
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
August 02 2013 21:25 GMT
#3674
But Rayn, you must agree that they should of roleblocked you while Exar gave us a green check (say, on someone like Stutters).
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
August 02 2013 21:27 GMT
#3675
Heck, Exar could of given us a geen check on Rayn ("I wanted to confirm that there were actually 2 cops in this game, guys").

Why did Exar roleblock himself?
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
August 02 2013 21:28 GMT
#3676
On August 03 2013 06:27 hzflank wrote:
Heck, Exar could of given us a geen check on Rayn ("I wanted to confirm that there were actually 2 cops in this game, guys").

Why did Exar roleblock himself?

What+s the point of hard-confirming me when you can just claim roleblocked?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
August 02 2013 21:29 GMT
#3677
How do you justify a check on me when you have already said you think i am most likely town?
table for two on a tv tray
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
August 02 2013 21:32 GMT
#3678
On August 03 2013 06:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:
How do you justify a check on me when you have already said you think i am most likely town?


Okay, but he could of checked Oats or whetever. It's all just weird. If he was going to roleblock himself then he should not of un-claimed yet. He might of well of left it until he was caught out and lynched.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
August 02 2013 21:37 GMT
#3679
On August 02 2013 08:55 IMCaptainJackSparrow wrote:
Alright, it's close enough to the deadline. I'll post some reads:

First of all, Rayn is scum because he resisted a Malongo lynch for so so so so long until it was obvious that his lynch target was not going to die. His cop claim is really sketch, especially with a Vayne check. Why would a cop check Vayne, and why would he claim cop just to get Vayne to vote for him? (He still hasn't answered this, he called out Vayne for bad town play yet he did not need to claim just to get Vayne to vote for FT. It doesn't make sense). He's just shitting up the thread with random-ass nonsense about how Oats is scum based solely on meta and how I'm scum by association with Oats. The logic is simply not there and it's obvious to me that he is just making cases to look like he is scumhunting.

Secondly, I want to look into Stutters some more. I'm still not convinced that he is town. His play until D2 was really fishy, and he dodged the setup speculation question that I gave him. He still worries me.

In the category of town reads, I'm only pretty secure on giving town reads to Oats (because he's not caring about the lynch or anything at all, what's new?), Clarity (because he has played a very focused game and is actively trying to solve it), and XRC (for being cop and getting Malongo lynched). The rest I'm still feeling null on, and if I don't die, I will work on splitting them up into town and scum.


Cora's last post before the day post.

Rayn is fake-cop scum. Clarity is town (scum have roleblocker). XRZ is cop. hzflank is null (make fake claim vet?).

I don't even need to tell you what I think about this.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
August 02 2013 21:39 GMT
#3680
But I will anyway: looks like Cora is expecting there to be another blue role in the game (if I am fake-claiming).
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