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Titanic Mini Mafia! - Page 101

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 30 2013 19:00 GMT
#2001
On July 31 2013 03:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I also did not understand why did he assume the check is not real unless he knows Malongo is town. But apparently a lot of people fail at reading the OP so tha's kinda null-tell. :E


Touche
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
July 30 2013 19:01 GMT
#2002
What do you mean by that?
table for two on a tv tray
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16318 Posts
July 30 2013 19:02 GMT
#2003
He failed to read the op.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 30 2013 19:03 GMT
#2004
On July 31 2013 04:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:
What do you mean by that?


I failed to read the updated Vig role.
exarezee
Profile Joined July 2013
United States423 Posts
July 30 2013 19:03 GMT
#2005
On July 31 2013 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2013 03:34 exarezee wrote:
@Rayn you forget the possibility that there is no veteran in the game. which makes it a slightly better play. I don't think you can completely clear hzflank based on the claim, but I still do think he is town.

Why can´t you understand that mafia does not know if there is a veteran or not. They would not take the risk HZ took, as there are more risks than benefits in fakeclaiming unnecessarily.


I disagree with your conclusion that there are more risks than benefits and that mafia would never make this move. Hzflank WAS going to get some flak. This increases the chance mafia hzflank would fake claim.

A fakeclaim isn't bad here IMO. Keep in mind that several people have scum reads on kzflank on this point in the game, increasing the chance for mafia to make this play. I don't know what the odds of there being a veteran in the game, but i want to assume something like 50% as i think there are two town power roles. 50% of the time he gets away with the claim, and people like you have completely cleared him. 50% of the time, he gets counterclaimed. 50% of the time we lynch the counter claimant who is actually town, and we are at must lynch scenario. 1-1 trade is not bad at all, since the likeliest setup is now detective + veteran. Every lynch thereafter is must lynch and a mistake is town loss. So this play works roughly 75% of the time or so.
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16318 Posts
July 30 2013 19:05 GMT
#2006
Why do you think there are two power roles and why do you assume scum thinks so?
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
July 30 2013 19:07 GMT
#2007
On July 31 2013 04:03 exarezee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2013 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On July 31 2013 03:34 exarezee wrote:
@Rayn you forget the possibility that there is no veteran in the game. which makes it a slightly better play. I don't think you can completely clear hzflank based on the claim, but I still do think he is town.

Why can´t you understand that mafia does not know if there is a veteran or not. They would not take the risk HZ took, as there are more risks than benefits in fakeclaiming unnecessarily.


I disagree with your conclusion that there are more risks than benefits and that mafia would never make this move. Hzflank WAS going to get some flak. This increases the chance mafia hzflank would fake claim.

A fakeclaim isn't bad here IMO. Keep in mind that several people have scum reads on kzflank on this point in the game, increasing the chance for mafia to make this play. I don't know what the odds of there being a veteran in the game, but i want to assume something like 50% as i think there are two town power roles. 50% of the time he gets away with the claim, and people like you have completely cleared him. 50% of the time, he gets counterclaimed. 50% of the time we lynch the counter claimant who is actually town, and we are at must lynch scenario. 1-1 trade is not bad at all, since the likeliest setup is now detective + veteran. Every lynch thereafter is must lynch and a mistake is town loss. So this play works roughly 75% of the time or so.

I don't really want to argue with you about this unless you seriously think hz is mafia. Because i think you are wrong and i don't want to waste time in explaining same stuff i have done before.

TLDR; If you do not think HZ is mafia, please drop the discussion about this ok?
table for two on a tv tray
exarezee
Profile Joined July 2013
United States423 Posts
July 30 2013 19:08 GMT
#2008
On July 31 2013 04:05 justanothertownie wrote:
Why do you think there are two power roles and why do you assume scum thinks so?


3 power roles is pretty OP. The scum power roles are not nearly as powerful as the town ones. Standard setup in a 13er vanilla game would be 3 mafia 10 town with a detective only.
exarezee
Profile Joined July 2013
United States423 Posts
July 30 2013 19:10 GMT
#2009
On July 31 2013 04:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2013 04:03 exarezee wrote:
On July 31 2013 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On July 31 2013 03:34 exarezee wrote:
@Rayn you forget the possibility that there is no veteran in the game. which makes it a slightly better play. I don't think you can completely clear hzflank based on the claim, but I still do think he is town.

Why can´t you understand that mafia does not know if there is a veteran or not. They would not take the risk HZ took, as there are more risks than benefits in fakeclaiming unnecessarily.


I disagree with your conclusion that there are more risks than benefits and that mafia would never make this move. Hzflank WAS going to get some flak. This increases the chance mafia hzflank would fake claim.

A fakeclaim isn't bad here IMO. Keep in mind that several people have scum reads on kzflank on this point in the game, increasing the chance for mafia to make this play. I don't know what the odds of there being a veteran in the game, but i want to assume something like 50% as i think there are two town power roles. 50% of the time he gets away with the claim, and people like you have completely cleared him. 50% of the time, he gets counterclaimed. 50% of the time we lynch the counter claimant who is actually town, and we are at must lynch scenario. 1-1 trade is not bad at all, since the likeliest setup is now detective + veteran. Every lynch thereafter is must lynch and a mistake is town loss. So this play works roughly 75% of the time or so.

I don't really want to argue with you about this unless you seriously think hz is mafia. Because i think you are wrong and i don't want to waste time in explaining same stuff i have done before.

TLDR; If you do not think HZ is mafia, please drop the discussion about this ok?


The reason I am discussing this with you is because you make these concrete statements as facts. "hzflank is town because of his claim." "clarity is town because of his claim". These posts are terrible for people that might not want to think themselves. I think you are town. Others think you are town. But following these ridiculous assumptions that people "won't do this as scum" is simply not true.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 30 2013 19:10 GMT
#2010
On July 31 2013 04:05 justanothertownie wrote:
Why do you think there are two power roles and why do you assume scum thinks so?


Game balance. with a 10/4 start a single Vet is not enough to balance the game.
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16318 Posts
July 30 2013 19:10 GMT
#2011
Doesn't that depend on the scum roles too?
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
July 30 2013 19:11 GMT
#2012
On July 31 2013 04:10 exarezee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2013 04:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On July 31 2013 04:03 exarezee wrote:
On July 31 2013 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On July 31 2013 03:34 exarezee wrote:
@Rayn you forget the possibility that there is no veteran in the game. which makes it a slightly better play. I don't think you can completely clear hzflank based on the claim, but I still do think he is town.

Why can´t you understand that mafia does not know if there is a veteran or not. They would not take the risk HZ took, as there are more risks than benefits in fakeclaiming unnecessarily.


I disagree with your conclusion that there are more risks than benefits and that mafia would never make this move. Hzflank WAS going to get some flak. This increases the chance mafia hzflank would fake claim.

A fakeclaim isn't bad here IMO. Keep in mind that several people have scum reads on kzflank on this point in the game, increasing the chance for mafia to make this play. I don't know what the odds of there being a veteran in the game, but i want to assume something like 50% as i think there are two town power roles. 50% of the time he gets away with the claim, and people like you have completely cleared him. 50% of the time, he gets counterclaimed. 50% of the time we lynch the counter claimant who is actually town, and we are at must lynch scenario. 1-1 trade is not bad at all, since the likeliest setup is now detective + veteran. Every lynch thereafter is must lynch and a mistake is town loss. So this play works roughly 75% of the time or so.

I don't really want to argue with you about this unless you seriously think hz is mafia. Because i think you are wrong and i don't want to waste time in explaining same stuff i have done before.

TLDR; If you do not think HZ is mafia, please drop the discussion about this ok?


The reason I am discussing this with you is because you make these concrete statements as facts. "hzflank is town because of his claim." "clarity is town because of his claim". These posts are terrible for people that might not want to think themselves. I think you are town. Others think you are town. But following these ridiculous assumptions that people "won't do this as scum" is simply not true.

Nobody cc'd HZ. You think there is a veteran + cop. Why do you even continue this discussion as you seem to agree with me?
table for two on a tv tray
exarezee
Profile Joined July 2013
United States423 Posts
July 30 2013 19:12 GMT
#2013
On July 31 2013 03:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2013 03:06 justanothertownie wrote:
First there is Tofu who I still don't like (still think he is scum) but to be fair I have to look into what happened last night again before I am 100% content saying he is scum. The same goes for hzflank (in his case there is even more new information to consider).
Besides there is this clarity thing. Depends totally on my idea to be correct though.
I also have to look into vayne again but currently I have no opinion on him.

There is no way hz would have claimed vet if he was mafia at the start of D2. He is town.


don't post shit like this then. tell me you think he's town for something else. not because of this claim crap.

On July 31 2013 03:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2013 03:06 justanothertownie wrote:
First there is Tofu who I still don't like (still think he is scum) but to be fair I have to look into what happened last night again before I am 100% content saying he is scum. The same goes for hzflank (in his case there is even more new information to consider).
Besides there is this clarity thing. Depends totally on my idea to be correct though.
I also have to look into vayne again but currently I have no opinion on him.

There is no way hz would have claimed vet if he was mafia at the start of D2. He is town.


or this

On July 31 2013 03:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2013 03:06 exarezee wrote:
i have a pretty good feel for the scumteam if two of the scum are koshi and malongo. I think its clarity/malongo/koshi/JATorTofu

I'll post my reasoning for this if we lynch koshi and he flips scum. No need to post something that might not occur...and since we can post in night phase =)

Read Clarity´s post about the roleblock. It does not make sense that he is mafia.

Look into Cora instead. He has been really bad on D2.


or this
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 30 2013 19:13 GMT
#2014
On July 31 2013 04:10 justanothertownie wrote:
Doesn't that depend on the scum roles too?


Even if the scum have zero PRs, 10/4 with a single Vet is still unbalanced. That's 2 mislynches to LYLO if they dont hit the Vet, and with no other protective or investigative roles then scum is more likely to win than town.
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16318 Posts
July 30 2013 19:15 GMT
#2015
I know but how can you say that there are exactly two roles and not maybe three?
Anyways we should drop this discussion I guess. I don't see it leading somewhere, sorry.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
July 30 2013 19:15 GMT
#2016
I'm a bit puzzled now XRZ. Why are you arguing with me and HZ about stuff that is regarding us as you think both of us are town? You are wasting time if you are town..
table for two on a tv tray
exarezee
Profile Joined July 2013
United States423 Posts
July 30 2013 19:19 GMT
#2017
The discussion is not leading anywhere. But I'm find stumped why town rayn would be like "look he can't claim here as mafia. he is town." It's basically directing us to base our beliefs on that one play, where we should be looking at the big picture (the whole freaking game). Look, we find slips, incongruities, etc from mafia all the time. Who's to say the mafia won't even make a bad play once in a while.

Yea, I'm done on this topic. Basically you guys just need to think for yourselves. I'm lessening my town read on rayn right now.
exarezee
Profile Joined July 2013
United States423 Posts
July 30 2013 19:21 GMT
#2018
On July 31 2013 04:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I'm a bit puzzled now XRZ. Why are you arguing with me and HZ about stuff that is regarding us as you think both of us are town? You are wasting time if you are town..


I'm suspicious when you try to tell me HZ is town because of his claim. Clarity is town because of his claim. Vayne is town because of his claim. I should have claimed something logical so you would have cleared me too.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
July 30 2013 19:21 GMT
#2019
XRZ, you don't know how i play. I'll tell you:

I don't always say everything i think about stuff. That's why i make posts like you quoted. I am encouraging people to think and read by themselves, and if they find something that is not in line with what i say they question me about it. You did that. Now i am however a bit lost because you seem to think i am town yet you are still wanting to argue with me about HZ, who we both think are town. Why is that? If we all think we all are town what's the point of arguing with each other instead of arguing with people we think are scum?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
July 30 2013 19:22 GMT
#2020
On July 31 2013 04:21 exarezee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2013 04:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I'm a bit puzzled now XRZ. Why are you arguing with me and HZ about stuff that is regarding us as you think both of us are town? You are wasting time if you are town..


I'm suspicious when you try to tell me HZ is town because of his claim. Clarity is town because of his claim. Vayne is town because of his claim. I should have claimed something logical so you would have cleared me too.

Yes i am telling you that. I have given my reasons why i think so, and i am 99% sure i am right on everyone of them.
table for two on a tv tray
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