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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On July 31 2013 03:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: I also did not understand why did he assume the check is not real unless he knows Malongo is town. But apparently a lot of people fail at reading the OP so tha's kinda null-tell. :E Touche | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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justanothertownie
16322 Posts
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On July 31 2013 04:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: What do you mean by that? I failed to read the updated Vig role. | ||
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exarezee
United States423 Posts
On July 31 2013 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why can´t you understand that mafia does not know if there is a veteran or not. They would not take the risk HZ took, as there are more risks than benefits in fakeclaiming unnecessarily. I disagree with your conclusion that there are more risks than benefits and that mafia would never make this move. Hzflank WAS going to get some flak. This increases the chance mafia hzflank would fake claim. A fakeclaim isn't bad here IMO. Keep in mind that several people have scum reads on kzflank on this point in the game, increasing the chance for mafia to make this play. I don't know what the odds of there being a veteran in the game, but i want to assume something like 50% as i think there are two town power roles. 50% of the time he gets away with the claim, and people like you have completely cleared him. 50% of the time, he gets counterclaimed. 50% of the time we lynch the counter claimant who is actually town, and we are at must lynch scenario. 1-1 trade is not bad at all, since the likeliest setup is now detective + veteran. Every lynch thereafter is must lynch and a mistake is town loss. So this play works roughly 75% of the time or so. | ||
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justanothertownie
16322 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On July 31 2013 04:03 exarezee wrote: I disagree with your conclusion that there are more risks than benefits and that mafia would never make this move. Hzflank WAS going to get some flak. This increases the chance mafia hzflank would fake claim. A fakeclaim isn't bad here IMO. Keep in mind that several people have scum reads on kzflank on this point in the game, increasing the chance for mafia to make this play. I don't know what the odds of there being a veteran in the game, but i want to assume something like 50% as i think there are two town power roles. 50% of the time he gets away with the claim, and people like you have completely cleared him. 50% of the time, he gets counterclaimed. 50% of the time we lynch the counter claimant who is actually town, and we are at must lynch scenario. 1-1 trade is not bad at all, since the likeliest setup is now detective + veteran. Every lynch thereafter is must lynch and a mistake is town loss. So this play works roughly 75% of the time or so. I don't really want to argue with you about this unless you seriously think hz is mafia. Because i think you are wrong and i don't want to waste time in explaining same stuff i have done before. TLDR; If you do not think HZ is mafia, please drop the discussion about this ok? | ||
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exarezee
United States423 Posts
On July 31 2013 04:05 justanothertownie wrote: Why do you think there are two power roles and why do you assume scum thinks so? 3 power roles is pretty OP. The scum power roles are not nearly as powerful as the town ones. Standard setup in a 13er vanilla game would be 3 mafia 10 town with a detective only. | ||
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exarezee
United States423 Posts
On July 31 2013 04:07 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't really want to argue with you about this unless you seriously think hz is mafia. Because i think you are wrong and i don't want to waste time in explaining same stuff i have done before. TLDR; If you do not think HZ is mafia, please drop the discussion about this ok? The reason I am discussing this with you is because you make these concrete statements as facts. "hzflank is town because of his claim." "clarity is town because of his claim". These posts are terrible for people that might not want to think themselves. I think you are town. Others think you are town. But following these ridiculous assumptions that people "won't do this as scum" is simply not true. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On July 31 2013 04:05 justanothertownie wrote: Why do you think there are two power roles and why do you assume scum thinks so? Game balance. with a 10/4 start a single Vet is not enough to balance the game. | ||
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justanothertownie
16322 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On July 31 2013 04:10 exarezee wrote: The reason I am discussing this with you is because you make these concrete statements as facts. "hzflank is town because of his claim." "clarity is town because of his claim". These posts are terrible for people that might not want to think themselves. I think you are town. Others think you are town. But following these ridiculous assumptions that people "won't do this as scum" is simply not true. Nobody cc'd HZ. You think there is a veteran + cop. Why do you even continue this discussion as you seem to agree with me? | ||
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exarezee
United States423 Posts
On July 31 2013 03:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: There is no way hz would have claimed vet if he was mafia at the start of D2. He is town. don't post shit like this then. tell me you think he's town for something else. not because of this claim crap. On July 31 2013 03:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: There is no way hz would have claimed vet if he was mafia at the start of D2. He is town. or this On July 31 2013 03:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: Read Clarity´s post about the roleblock. It does not make sense that he is mafia. Look into Cora instead. He has been really bad on D2. or this | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On July 31 2013 04:10 justanothertownie wrote: Doesn't that depend on the scum roles too? Even if the scum have zero PRs, 10/4 with a single Vet is still unbalanced. That's 2 mislynches to LYLO if they dont hit the Vet, and with no other protective or investigative roles then scum is more likely to win than town. | ||
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justanothertownie
16322 Posts
Anyways we should drop this discussion I guess. I don't see it leading somewhere, sorry. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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exarezee
United States423 Posts
Yea, I'm done on this topic. Basically you guys just need to think for yourselves. I'm lessening my town read on rayn right now. | ||
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exarezee
United States423 Posts
On July 31 2013 04:15 raynpelikoneet wrote: I'm a bit puzzled now XRZ. Why are you arguing with me and HZ about stuff that is regarding us as you think both of us are town? You are wasting time if you are town.. I'm suspicious when you try to tell me HZ is town because of his claim. Clarity is town because of his claim. Vayne is town because of his claim. I should have claimed something logical so you would have cleared me too. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
I don't always say everything i think about stuff. That's why i make posts like you quoted. I am encouraging people to think and read by themselves, and if they find something that is not in line with what i say they question me about it. You did that. Now i am however a bit lost because you seem to think i am town yet you are still wanting to argue with me about HZ, who we both think are town. Why is that? If we all think we all are town what's the point of arguing with each other instead of arguing with people we think are scum? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On July 31 2013 04:21 exarezee wrote: I'm suspicious when you try to tell me HZ is town because of his claim. Clarity is town because of his claim. Vayne is town because of his claim. I should have claimed something logical so you would have cleared me too. Yes i am telling you that. I have given my reasons why i think so, and i am 99% sure i am right on everyone of them. | ||
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