Newbie Mini Mafia XLIV

On July 13 2013 08:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Sponge posting his Early Day 1 Conversation Starter?

Sponge posting his Early Day 1 Conversation Starter.

The following was written on the contingency I got Town in my role PM. I generally don't like early Day 1 town conversations because it's 100% fluff and teasing and clouds the filters. Necessary evil? Perhaps. But let's try to kick this game into overdrive early, shall we?

Pre-written segment starts now:

3 points to raise, in order of importance from highest priority to lowest.

1.) This game is Majority lynch: There will be 2(+) wagons per day. By the end of the day, you need to pick scummiest one and join it (no lynch = bad). Don't tunnel your read at the cost of town kp (e.g. the lynch). If you don't think either wagon is more scummier than the other, analyze the people on each wagon. You'll find you trust one of the groups of voters more than the other, even if your feelings on the lynch candidates are a wash.

CAVEAT: Feel free to hold out as long as you feel is necessary during the day to make your point. Ideally, you'll join a wagon a couple hours before the deadline. If there's 12 hours left, scumhunt the hell out of the guy no one is looking at. Hell, you might be able to get a serious wagon going on him. But if that clock is counting down, and your vote is flying solo, I don't want to hear "Oh, I was going to switch at the last second, but my internet went out" if it cost us a lynch for that day.

2.) Pet peeve: There is a separate voting thread for this game. No ninja votes. Disclose all votes and unvotes redundantly in this thread. Ninja votes may not be a scum tell, but I would consider it a personal favor.

3.) One of the big pieces of advice I keep hearing from the veterans is to not use meta in these newbie games. I took this advice one step further: I submit that unless you make a concentrated effort, you will subconsciously naturally use what little meta you have on your fellow players when making crucial decisions. In short. "Don't Use Meta" is not a call for inaction, but rather a call to actively eliminate meta arguments and bias from your decision-making process.

Upon realizing the importance of identifying my own biases, I am hereby disclosing everything I think I know now. If you catch me treating you based on any of the following, ask me to support it with analysis from this game if you feel I'm being unfair or displaying bias: (quicklist)

Xzavier: strong townie reads, poor scumhunter (susceptible to OMGUS). contributes to discussion when questioned directly. syntax and post construction can sometimes be an issue. inconsistent activity level (can be a high volume poster or post in blocks in the same game). Been Mislynched in last two games- implies poor ability to defend pressure as town. unknown scum game.

hz: strong approach to the game. methodical analysis that leads to accurate reads as town. as town: willing to post elaborate conspiracy theories for public scrutiny to vet all possible venues of analysis ('no stone unturned'-type player). "This guy is Town that thinks like Scum but posts with pro-town logic. Very dangerous." - Ace Himself (NMMXLIII Scum QT) (powerful ally as town, dangerous foe as scum). can scumhunt solo or lead town as town. if you reach endgame or near-endgame with him and think he's been too good a player to be scum, re-evaluate. he is that good.

Umasi: volume poster as town. (11 pages of filter in the 84-page NMMXLII) posts can be emotional but often contain strong arguments / positions or other useful content. Analysis skills may be suspect (poor voting history in NMMXLII), and may tilt from pressure as town. Has shown willingness to tunnel as town.

Chromatically: strong analyzer of both town and scum. has the ability to drive town discussion in positive directions as town. sheepable in this format (majority lynch) if townieness is confirmed / likely.

Gotard: low activity level. (In 84 pages of Newbie Mini Mafia XLII, amassed only a 3-page filter despite being the primary wagon on day 1) unknown analysis ability. tends to follow wagons as town. post content generally short-and-sweet (1-liners that get to the point when not making cases)- very little fluff.

Sponge: volume poster- high activity level. (15 pages of filter in 99-page NMMXLIII) content-based poster. weak town reads (slow to trust; defaults to town consensus). mediocre scum reads (more data needed). weakness to pre-flip relationships, NK analysis, and trying to 'solve' Power Roles as town.

StiMaDDict: notorious lurker as town. general contribution is one post per day: a massive case on someone right before the lynch deadline. willing to target popular and unpopular targets with his vote as town. weird self-voting meltdown in NMMXLII implies a certain level of Crazy in this player. Posting is generally content / analysis-driven (low fluff). More data needed.

The above are all characterized as Player Tendencies. When looking over the list, I noticed the wide range of behaviors and how none of them are actually Scum (and only a couple are Town) tells. I feel this is useful (to myself, but maybe also to you) because it provides a baseline to check if the scum evidence being used could actually just fit into a sub-optimal townster profile."

If anyone else feels it would be productive to disclose their player tendencies, now's as good a time as any.

On July 13 2013 07:41 jrkirby wrote:
Ok. I've been studying this long and hard, and I think I have enough evidence to make a clear case.

hzflank is scum



Clearly, hzflank is lying about this compliment. Liars are always scum. And look who he's talking to: the scum coach. Obviously he's in league with them.

He goes on, still talking to the scum:



This is an obvious admission that he wants town to die. Anyone who wants town to die is scum, end of story.



I will. Right here, right now.

And for his first post:



He's trying to get us to sheep together and follow a Bandwagon instead of looking for evidence and finding scum.

Finally:



Trying to defend one of the scum who is planning to lurk.

You can't ignore all this evidence guys. hzflank is scum.

##Vote: hzflank

On July 13 2013 12:19 StiMaDDict wrote:
This. Pretty much repeating what Xzavier did in the last game, calling everyone retard, was from me being genuinely mad.



Overall attitude in my posts and impolite words in them were for the purpose I have stated.


Do note: I'm not a good actor and I am not sure whether there was a clear boundary between me being mad because of quotes and spoilers and pretending to be mad at Rainbow. I was not bothered by Rainbow's pressure to put it simply and it is not in my best interest to lie about this.

On July 13 2013 12:24 StiMaDDict wrote:
My previous post looks confusing.
1) I was mad at messing up posts but not at Rainbow
2) My anger reflected on my posts
3) Later when I realized that my posts were angry sounding I gave them purposes and maintain similar style.

I hope this explains it better. Not sure if this is a relevant topic though.

On July 13 2013 07:41 jrkirby wrote:
Ok. I've been studying this long and hard, and I think I have enough evidence to make a clear case.

hzflank is scum



Clearly, hzflank is lying about this compliment. Liars are always scum. And look who he's talking to: the scum coach. Obviously he's in league with them.

He goes on, still talking to the scum:



This is an obvious admission that he wants town to die. Anyone who wants town to die is scum, end of story.



I will. Right here, right now.

And for his first post:



He's trying to get us to sheep together and follow a Bandwagon instead of looking for evidence and finding scum.

Finally:



Trying to defend one of the scum who is planning to lurk.

You can't ignore all this evidence guys. hzflank is scum.

##Vote: hzflank

On July 13 2013 09:35 jrkirby wrote:


"For all we know, THIS could be his scum post." That's exactly what I was trying to get information on. Here was my reasoning: if this is his scum post, then he won't HAVE a real scum post. But it's been long enough that he could've written another one by now, so no point in pushing it anymore.

No, this is my second game, kinda.

On July 13 2013 09:46 jrkirby wrote:


Me - "It's been long enough that he could've written another one by now." If he had posted one immediately after I had asked it means something different than if he posts one an hour or two after I asked.

Superfluous's post & lurk is bad, but give him a bit, he might show back up.

On July 13 2013 09:58 jrkirby wrote:


I think it's foolish to PLAN to not lynch day one. But if I have a choice of lynching someone that I townread, and lynching no one, I will try to lynch no one. I hope other people would follow suit.

On July 13 2013 10:13 jrkirby wrote:
Koshi
Xzavier
Nightcat99
Gotard
cloud-9

These players haven't posted anything/enough in my opinion. It's only been a couple hours, so you might be asleep/ at work. But just a PSA, these are currently "lurkers".

On July 13 2013 10:22 jrkirby wrote:


Well, this game is majority lynch, so voting for the "scummiest" person could be what causes a lynch not to happen.

I'm pretty sure scum wouldn't mind lynching town either.

On July 13 2013 10:32 jrkirby wrote:


Honestly? I have real trouble seeing scum until I see voting patterns. I'm slightly more suspicious of Sponge, Umasi, and Rainbows than the rest. Sponge I've stated my reasons for. I don't really trust my read on Rainbows because [meta here] I thought he was scum last time I played with him and he wasn't. Umasi just reads a bit ornery, so that could be the reason for my weak read.

My vote on hzflank was kinda a combo of joke/pressure as you guys pointed out. It got a bit of discussion, but didn't get much of a rise out of hzflank, who I currently have null read on.

I guess I should unvote him now, since the pressure obviously didn't do too much.

##unvote: hzflank

On July 13 2013 11:03 Chromatically wrote:

Why are you suspicious of Rainbows? What do you think about Super?

On July 13 2013 11:56 StiMaDDict wrote:
Waiting on jkirby's response to Chromatically's question.

On July 13 2013 10:47 jrkirby wrote:


Anyone think this could be a scumslip? He seems the kind that might want to subtly brag about it if he were scum.

On July 13 2013 10:58 jrkirby wrote:


He said he couldn't be in here at the beginning before the game started, right? No real reason to have suspicion on the lurkers yet, just note that they're lurking.

On July 13 2013 13:21 jrkirby wrote:


Cool it dude. For all you know, the people voting for you could be scum trying to get you riled up. Just calm down, post reads, question things, and have a good game. You won't play your best when you're tilting. You're in no way doomed right now.

On July 13 2013 13:31 jrkirby wrote:
2 votes land on a guy is quick succession, I'd be stupid if I weren't at least a BIT suspicious. As far as I can tell, stim is just acting like a bit of an idiot, is flustered, and frustrated. Doesn't seem like scumtell to me. You're free to have your vote, and I don't have a solid scumread on either of you, but I will be looking a bit more closely at your filters.

On July 13 2013 13:38 jrkirby wrote:
I don't think he's town. I think he's stupid, and have a nullread.

On July 13 2013 13:42 jrkirby wrote:
I don't think he's thinking through what he's saying. His actions don't seem town because they're foolish from every way you look at them. But that doesn't make him clearly scum.