On July 18 2013 01:38 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2013 20:02 Onegu wrote:On July 13 2013 08:54 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Umasi, stop defending me. Don't defend people in general. It's more valuable to hear them defend themselves by tenfold. (Also, I don't want you handcuffing yourself to my ankle then flipping scum and having Town waste a bunch of time re-vetting me.) On July 13 2013 08:48 jrkirby wrote:On July 13 2013 08:47 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 08:46 jrkirby wrote:On July 13 2013 08:42 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 08:33 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 08:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
The following was written on the contingency I got Town in my PM. I generally don't like early Day 1 town conversations because it's 100% fluff and teasing and clouds the filters. Necessary evil? Perhaps. But let's try to kick this game into overdrive early, shall we?
Why did you include this? Are you saying you wouldn't have posted this if you were scum? Correct. I would not have posted this particular post as scum. But you might have posted another post starting with the same line. Or maybe you did post that as scum. But you certainly would never have said: The following was written on the contingency I got Scum in my role PM. Hahaha! Very right you are, I hadn't thought of that. So then show us the post that you would have posted if you rolled scum, eh? This is a very reasonable request, but unfortunately I will not be posting it at this time for a couple reasons. First, it's not as impressive as the one I posted. Second, I intend to stay active in this community and will probably end up using a version of it at some point when (if?) I ever get that 'You Are Scum' PM. Why write this if you filp town, and we play in another game together and you post something similar but not as good I will tunnel you, and bring up this post. I never said my scum write-up was similar. And you're tunneling me now. And at the endgame, you'll see it was a bad move. I'm not worried about future games, I'm playing this one. Don't try to threaten me with action in future games to get some kind of result in this one. It's very bad manner. On July 13 2013 15:39 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Just caught up on the thread for entertainment purposes: First thoughts: This fits StiM's playbook to a letter. The self-vote and martyring happened in XLII. Unfortunately, this happened while he was Town, so this doesn't really tell us anything. I like that there are other reasons for the votes (haven't done proper analysis yet), but I strongly encourage people to not interpret StiM on tilt as a scumtell. Going back now to read the entire train of thought in context now: Early on, StiM breaks down why he thought the kirby jokepost wasn't credible. (This elicits a big eyeroll, but is pretty benign albeit unnecessary). + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 09:25 StiMaDDict wrote:@RainbowAlso my read on jrkirby is null. This is a response to a request for elaboration from Rainbow. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 07:41 jrkirby wrote:Ok. I've been studying this long and hard, and I think I have enough evidence to make a clear case. hzflank is scumShow nested quote +On July 09 2013 04:04 hzflank wrote:On July 09 2013 03:22 WaveofShadow wrote:On July 09 2013 03:20 hzflank wrote:On July 09 2013 02:13 Stutters695 wrote:Obligatory USE YOUR COACHESWe're great guys and here to help  With WoS as the scum coach, I do not think that town will need your assistance. Uh, ouch? Need I remind you that you won a game with Ace as the scum coach too? I meant it as a compliment. Sometimes the greatest players are the worst coaches because you just cannot teach pure brilliance. Clearly, hzflank is lying about this compliment. Liars are always scum. And look who he's talking to: the scum coach. Obviously he's in league with them. He goes on, still talking to the scum: Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 04:22 hzflank wrote:On July 09 2013 04:09 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
If you vote for an hzflank lynch based on pregame meta, I will fall instantly in love with you. Then scum should night kill the first person to vote for me, because as their lover you will also die. This is an obvious admission that he wants town to die. Anyone who wants town to die is scum, end of story. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 04:19 hzflank wrote:On July 13 2013 04:09 Chromatically wrote:
I won't be here for two hours after start. Then who will call my first post scummy?  I will. Right here, right now. Pregame posts when people didn't even get their role pm are evidence to his case. Do I need to say more? Show nested quote +Clearly, hzflank is lying about this compliment. Liars are always scum. And look who he's talking to: the scum coach. Obviously he's in league with them.
He goes on, still talking to the scum: Not sure where he is going with this one.. Show nested quote +This is an obvious admission that he wants town to die. Anyone who wants town to die is scum, end of story. He hasn't even fucking got his role pm and he's joking around pregame. ok.. + Show Spoiler +And for his first post: Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 07:11 hzflank wrote:
So we are using a majority vote system. As we all know there is much more chance of a No Lynch with this system than with plurality voting.
I think it is in our best interest to try to lynch someone every day. This may seem a bit odd at first, because a mis-lynch is obviously better for scum than for town. However, the only way that town will win is by lynching scum, and we will never be sure if we are lynching town or scum unless the lynch actually goes through. If we narrowly fail to lynch then we end up spending the next day discussing it and do not move forward as much.
Also, scum already know who they are. When someone is lynched the alignment information from their flip benefits town, but not scum.
Therefore, I suggest we work together as much as possible to actually get lynches through, if they are in doubt. He's trying to get us to sheep together and follow a Bandwagon instead of looking for evidence and finding scum. Finally: Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 07:31 hzflank wrote:On July 13 2013 07:26 Koshi wrote:
Are there experienced players here? People that played a decent amount of games. Everyone here has played 3 or less games. On July 13 2013 07:24 Koshi wrote:
Hi all. I played 1 newbie game in the TL+ forums and I am atm also playing in the nuclear mafia game.
I am with Rainbows on the lynching of lurkers. The tl+ game got RUINED because nobody posted. So if you are town, I want you to make around 10 posts a day. Try to make posts that are aggressive and confront people with your thought. Don't be afraid to be wrong. If you are town, please consider doing this to help town and force scum to make posts.
I think it is a bit early to be thinking about policy lynches on lurkers. Policy lynching can stifle discussion and we need discussion today. Once we get 24-36 hours in then we can consider it. Also, sometimes RL just happens for a day or two. Also, I think that there will be enough activity here. There are several players who I know will post a lot and we (the active players) cannot all die really early. Trying to defend one of the scum who is planning to lurk. You can't ignore all this evidence guys. hzflank is scum. ##Vote: hzflankShow nested quote +And for his first post:
He's trying to get us to sheep together and follow a Bandwagon instead of looking for evidence and finding scum. I am not trying to defend hzflank in any shape or form however I do not agree with jrkirby's "read" on hzflank's post and I do not think it was alignment indicative. Again I do not think this post point hzflank as a scum. Then comes the massive over-reaction: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 09:25 StiMaDDict wrote:Another thing that is annoying the fuck out of me is that how Rainbow "interpreted" my post. This is what I wrote. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 08:07 StiMaDDict wrote:
I can only look at jrkirby's post as a pressure vote at this point. He didn't seem to be the type to joke around from the pre game though.
Explanation: I find a pressure vote to be a strategy for some people. It works sometimes but not all the times. jrkirby's "case" really is not something of content to be honest. I assumed that it was pressure vote to get some discussions going. So that is what I said. As for the second sentence, his "case" is really fucking bullshit, so there are two possibilities. Either he is joking around or he suck at scumhunting. Now let's look at how Rainbow made me sound like. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 08:20 Rainbows wrote:On July 13 2013 08:07 StiMaDDict wrote:
I can only look at jrkirby's post as a pressure vote at this point. He didn't seem to be the type to joke around from the pre game though.
This post is scummy. Gives a reason for jkirbys post and then casts doubt on it. U scum? Scummy? Yes, I did give jkirby's post a reason but I didn't doubt it. If I had said it was a joke vote and he didn't seem to be a joker, your statement makes sense. I said pressure vote and nothing more. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 08:28 Rainbows wrote:
Yes. What is odd about his vote? Why ia this joking around suspicious? I didn't fucking say it was odd. Jesus, give me a break. I NEVER FUCKING SAID IT WAS SUSPICIOUS. Note to all: + Show Spoiler +btw, I'm really trying to stay active. Sometimes I write really slow and I might be answering something that is couple of pages back. Sometimes I write one liners. My bad. + Show Spoiler +If you don't like it, well fuck you I've read that post ten times, and can't really glean anything meaningful other than that StiM is in full-on turtle-up Defend Self At All Costs mode. Not necessarily a scumtell in a newbie game, I guess. I mean, who wants to die? Still, odd. Chromatically notes that one of these posts sits very oddly with him (I'd guess it's the second one), but StiM's next post is one defending me / going after Kirby: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 09:30 StiMaDDict wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 09:22 jrkirby wrote:On July 13 2013 09:14 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 09:10 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 08:57 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 08:54 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 08:42 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 08:33 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 08:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
The following was written on the contingency I got Town in my role PM. I generally don't like early Day 1 town conversations because it's 100% fluff and teasing and clouds the filters. Necessary evil? Perhaps. But let's try to kick this game into overdrive early, shall we?
Why did you include this? Are you saying you wouldn't have posted this if you were scum? Correct. I would not have posted this particular post as scum. On July 13 2013 08:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 08:43 Rainbows wrote:On July 13 2013 08:41 Umasi wrote:On July 13 2013 08:33 Chromatically wrote:
[quote]
Why did you include this? Are you saying you wouldn't have posted this if you were scum?
[quote]
I'd be very interested in hearing your explanation as to why you honestly think this is scummy. I certainly wouldn't post that if I were scum, it is nothing but a good thing for town. Why WOULD he want to post that as scum? to look town. Scum love to spew general pro town thingsvto get ez town cred.. This is correct. In general, these sorts of posts should result in a null read in a veteran game. But Early Day 1, when it's generally assumed nothing interesting is happening, seemed like a good time to get PSA's out of the way for a newbie crowd. The info is valuable, but it should not get me town cred. It's more important to me that there's a town consensus on the actual content of the post, not my alignment. (Plenty of time for that later.) You obviously think that your post was pro town, right? That's why you shouldn't have posted it as scum. But then you say that you shouldn't get town cred from it, indicating that you don't think it's pro town. ? Pro town in a newbie game, yes. Probably wouldn't have posted it in a Veteran game unless I really felt the Day 1 conversation stagnating early. I think all my posts are pro-town. Otherwise, why would I post them? (That should apply to everyone but those with a severe inferiority complex.) That doesn't answer the point. The point is that your logic is inconsistant. You say that you wouldn't have posted this as scum. Why? You think that the post is valuable enough to town that scum wouldn't want to post it. You think that only a townie would post it. However, you say that you shouldn't get a town read for it, even though you think that only town would post it. I'm not in the business of telling people I'm town. I'm going to scumhunt and try to win this game, and a byproduct of that should be that people will view me as town. Put another way: I don't believe posting specifically with the goal of acquiring towncred is particularly helpful in anything but circumstances where I could be mislynched. I'm prioritizing getting the Town ducks in a row here in the early going so we can move on to the scumhunt, not establishing my Townie-ness. Interestingly, people (Chrom and jrkirby) have seemed more interested in analyzing why I posted rather than what I posted. Can I infer by this that we largely agree with what I have said? Pretty much what you said was: meta is bad, this is the meta that I might accidentally do. That's fine, neither particularly good nor bad imo. But you claimed that you would only post it on the condition that you were town. You admit to having a post that you would post on the condition that you're scum (which I think is foolish), but you won't show it to us, and that's just a tiny bit suspicious. Seriously man.. this is the best you can do? If he has scum post, big deal. For all we know THIS could be his scum post. Who knows. Is this your first game jrkirby? So early in the game, I have felt pressure from Kirby and Chrom, while receiving unsolicited White Knighting from Umasi and StiM. (Side note: If there's some crazy mafia play floating around out there to chum up to me to make me look scummy after you guys flip Red, that's a losing strategy, boys.) Important post from hz regarding StiM flipping out while everyone else interpreted the jokepost as a joke: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 09:58 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 09:44 Rainbows wrote:
What do you think about Stims reaction, HZ? He kinda derailed to some soft pressure :/ The first thing to note is that Stim was unsure of whether Jrkirby's post was a joke or not. Stim reacted very different than everyone else did, but this could be because he viewed it as semi-serious while everyone else viewed it as a joke. After that Stim tries to defend himself. Again Stim's reaction seems odd at first, but normal if you consider that Stim thinks the original case was serious. Stim is posting in an aggressive manner but that is more of a personality tell than an alignment tell. I cannot help but be wish-washy here and conclude: I am eager to see more from Stim because I have absolutely no read on his alignment at this point. Bolding because this is the first real revelation I've had on this case. If someone can provide a logical answer to the above, I'd appreciate it. Re: If StiM was Scum, would scum have really let him react this poorly and dig his own grave for this long? Moving on: Rainbow seems to be sheeping Chromatically's pressure on StiM a bit. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 10:01 Rainbows wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 09:58 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 09:25 StiMaDDict wrote:Another thing that is annoying the fuck out of me is that how Rainbow "interpreted" my post. This is what I wrote. On July 13 2013 08:07 StiMaDDict wrote:
I can only look at jrkirby's post as a pressure vote at this point. He didn't seem to be the type to joke around from the pre game though.
Explanation: I find a pressure vote to be a strategy for some people. It works sometimes but not all the times. jrkirby's "case" really is not something of content to be honest. I assumed that it was pressure vote to get some discussions going. So that is what I said. As for the second sentence, his "case" is really fucking bullshit, so there are two possibilities. Either he is joking around or he suck at scumhunting.
So you posted it because you wanted to point out that he's either a townie joking or a bad townie? Why would you post the second sentence at all? And then someone else words it better than I can. Bravo. On July 13 2013 10:03 Rainbows wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 10:01 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 09:52 Rainbows wrote:On July 13 2013 09:47 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 09:26 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 09:21 Rainbows wrote:On July 13 2013 09:12 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 08:41 Rainbows wrote:On July 13 2013 08:33 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 08:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
The following was written on the contingency I got Town in my role PM. I generally don't like early Day 1 town conversations because it's 100% fluff and teasing and clouds the filters. Necessary evil? Perhaps. But let's try to kick this game into overdrive early, shall we?
Why did you include this? Are you saying you wouldn't have posted this if you were scum? On July 13 2013 08:20 Rainbows wrote:
[quote]
This post is scummy. Gives a reason for jkirbys post and then casts doubt on it. U scum? I'd be very interested in hearing your explanation as to why you honestly think this is scummy. It's scummy because it's renouncing jkirbys jokepost while he gave a reason for it. He never explains why this joking around is suspicious just passively finger points. I want to hear elaboration. "It's a pressure vote, but his joking is wierd because he doesn't seem like a joker." Where's the inconsistency? The point is he is finger pointing without actually doing anything like asking a question.I want to hear his response It sounded like you had two points. 1) "It's scummy because it's renouncing jkirbys jokepost while he gave a reason for it." (inconsistency) 2) "He never explains why this joking around is suspicious just passively finger points." (finger pointing) Maybe I wasn't explicit enough. Is this untrue? I assume pressure vote = town move and then he says jkirby is joking which is unlike him = scummy? two separate feels imo. Are you asking me..? Or is that a reason why you thought it was scummy? The reason I thought it scummy. It's hard to say how I thought about it, but then again I post rather sporadically with random thoughts. Finally getting to the part where StiM starts posting about whether or not he was mad. Chromatically seems to be leading this attack. StiM gets tripped up trying to explain whether he was mad or pretending to be mad. None of this comes of making StiM look good. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 12:59 StiMaDDict wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 12:49 Chromatically wrote:This Stim thing doesn't make sense at all. Look at the chain of events: 1) Rainbow pressures Stim 2) Stim posts an angry response 3) Stim claims that his anger was due to formatting 4) Stim claims that he wasn't actually angry, and that he acted like it to get a reaction. 3 and 4 are incompatible. Stim is claiming that he was angry from the formatting, and then lied about his reasoning for doing it later. This doesn't make sense from a town perspective. On July 13 2013 11:55 StiMaDDict wrote:
I did respond quite aggressively and in an angry manner, even though I was not really angry at all. There were 2 purposes: 1) To see if Rainbow would 'flinch' 2) To establish myself to others as capable of defending myself. Conclusion: He didn't flinch and I did clear my name somewhat. I could have counter pressured to get some sort of read from Rainbow, however I didn't, because it IS early in the game and without proving myself as an active town, it would have a less of impact and leave a bad impression of me.
Town wouldn't say "There were 2 purposes" for their anger if they had just made up those purposes now. Town most certainly wouldn't say "I wasn't actually angry" if they were, like Stim is claiming he was now. ##Vote: StimI'd be interested in hearing others' thoughts. Edit: If this is what you came up with, then gg wp. Not really motivating to play anymore really. .... and then he takes his ball and goes home. Color me baffled. Could be town (like I said, he has proven he's willing to vote himself and go on tilt really easily), but definitely could be scum panicking. Moreso, I'm offended by his implication that the onus is on US to keep HIM entertained and willing to play this game. Then Umasi joins the bandwagon: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 13:06 Umasi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
I may be biased but I put Chromatically as the most capable scumhunter. In last game, he pretty much had the whole scum team Day1. It goes without saying that I do not Chromatically's alignment as of right now.
@Chromatically Your current scum reads? Looking at it as stim is scum, it feels like he's trying to buddy him up as he has him read as a threat. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 10:50 StiMaDDict wrote:
Edit: *It goes without saying that I do not know Chromatically's alignment as of right now This reads to me as trying to assuage a concern someone would have with it before someone talked about it. And seriously, why would you even bother doing that? Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 12:59 StiMaDDict wrote:On July 13 2013 12:49 Chromatically wrote:This Stim thing doesn't make sense at all. Look at the chain of events: 1) Rainbow pressures Stim 2) Stim posts an angry response 3) Stim claims that his anger was due to formatting 4) Stim claims that he wasn't actually angry, and that he acted like it to get a reaction. 3 and 4 are incompatible. Stim is claiming that he was angry from the formatting, and then lied about his reasoning for doing it later. This doesn't make sense from a town perspective. On July 13 2013 11:55 StiMaDDict wrote:
I did respond quite aggressively and in an angry manner, even though I was not really angry at all. There were 2 purposes: 1) To see if Rainbow would 'flinch' 2) To establish myself to others as capable of defending myself. Conclusion: He didn't flinch and I did clear my name somewhat. I could have counter pressured to get some sort of read from Rainbow, however I didn't, because it IS early in the game and without proving myself as an active town, it would have a less of impact and leave a bad impression of me.
Town wouldn't say "There were 2 purposes" for their anger if they had just made up those purposes now. Town most certainly wouldn't say "I wasn't actually angry" if they were, like Stim is claiming he was now. ##Vote: StimI'd be interested in hearing others' thoughts. Edit: If this is what you came up with, then gg wp. Not really motivating to play anymore really. It's not motivating to play because you don't have perma town cred? Expect people to think you're scum, or not guaranteed town. Like, why is it gg? If I remember you said Chrom was a solid scumhunter. It's actually up there in this post Don't omgus out of the fucking game, because that is not pro town, not defensible, and a surefire way to be lynched. And if you're town, that's obviously bad, because you're directly hurting town, wasting our time and not scumhunting. If you're scum, that's ALSO an awful idea, because you're just saccing yourself. Basically, rethink this and ignore what chrom has said about you and go contribute as much as you can in a protown way to turn opinions around, not just complain "I don't like people thinking I'm scum" You are now a priority to figure out over Superfluous, although I still am looking at Superfluous. ##UNVOTE##VOTE StiMadDDict The first two 'reasons' reek of confirmation bias, and don't hold any weight for me. It could be construed as a scum Umasi hopping on a surefire bandwagon, but I have no confidence based on his earlier play that this poor play is inconsistent with a Town Umasi. Other valuable thoughts to avoid Quadposting: - I disagree with Superfluous' opinion on policy about No Lynch Day 1's, but the similarities to the Aqua - NN Claim issue is so striking I actually laughed aloud. My gut read was 'he's scum, day 1 lynch is the best play', but now I realize how the people pushing for Aqua's lynch Day 1 felt! - Umasi really rushed to my defense early and often which leaves me with a weird scummy feeling for some reason. Kirby and Chrom were pressuring me, but they weren't firing fastballs. I feel like I explained myself well, but Umasi's intrusion made the whole exchange way more combative than I felt it deserved. Right now, my nightmare is that Umasi flips scum, and people link him to me via these early exchanges, leading to my own mislynch. - Combining these two thoughts, Umasi then votes Superfluous for his 'scummy as crap' Day 1 No Lynch post (which I have explained in bullet point #1 I think is wrong, but not scummy). - People are being too hard on lurkers (especially people who posted at the game start and then disappeared). It's talk that doesn't move the game forward because it's a freaking Friday Night. Umasi's supporting 'evidence' (i.e. he's lurking) on Superfluous is what inspired this bulletpoint, pointed out nicely by hz: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 09:42 hzflank wrote:I think Jrkirby's and Sponge's opening posts had the same motivation: to get discussion moving. Both have done this and we have multiple discussions taking place. Since then, Sponge did a little coaching. Sponge has come under pressure from multiple people (for his opening post), and has dealt with it while being reasonably open. The only time that he has not been open is by refusing to post the other version of his opening post. Sponge did a little coaching again as he tried to stop Umasi from defending him. So far my read on Sponge has moved very slightly towards town. Since his opening, Jrkirby has attacked Sponge for his opening post, and done nothing else. That's fine because it is early and Jrkirby is pushing to get a reaction from someone. This is not scummy to me, null read. Umasi has defended Hurricane, which cannot be viewed as scummy at this point. Umasi has attacked Superfluous. I would say that this attack could be scummy as it is based on nothing, but it could just be to get Super to post more (he only has one post). Umasi then repeats that he thinks Super's post is scummy and votes for him. The problem I have with this is that Umasi claims Super's only post was scummy, when I do not think that it was. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 08:33 Superfluous wrote:
While I agree that we should lynch someone if they are super scummy, I'd like to point out that voting for no lynch is an option. Assuming I'm interpreting the rules/setup right, mafia only has 1 kp so there's no immediate motive for lynching such as reducing kp. It may be a stronger play to not lynch and hope that cop(if there is one) gets a turn to check before lynch. It is a risk though because I believe we are not guaranteed to have a cop. Just an idea I wanted to throw out and get your guys' thoughts on. If Umasi was looking for a reaction then I do not understand why he posted: Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 08:59 Umasi wrote:
Where the hell are you. You popped in, gave a single post, that I think is scummy as crap, still haven't show back up. Pretty confusing, because the post you gave was irrelevant. How was Super's post scummy as crap? I do not think that Umasi is looking for scum, and if he is not just fishing for Super to respond then I think that Umasi is just looking for a neutral place to put his early vote. Unlike Jrkirby's, Umasi's vote is not a troll vote. I have a slight scum read on Umasi. On July 13 2013 10:56 Umasi wrote:
He came in, emphasized his newness to the game, and it felt like he was giving excuses for not posting, not reasons.
(I realize that they're extremely similar, but I think it's a matter of tone)
the timing he came in at (right when we brought up lurkers) to be like "I'm trying not to lurk"
is just
kind of......weird?
I think it's out of place and scummy. Unlike hz, however, I think these are just bad reads and bad play. Could be scum, of course, but it could equally likely be town. Still some good content, on my radar, and I'm glad hz pointed it out. Chromatically chimes in later with a post on Superfluous saying he has tried to not 'rock the boat' (which is exactly what he did with the No Lynch position he took): + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
I may be biased but I put Chromatically as the most capable scumhunter. In last game, he pretty much had the whole scum team Day1. It goes without saying that I do not Chromatically's alignment as of right now.
@Chromatically Your current scum reads? Superfluous looks really bad, he's been apologetic in his posts (not trying to rock the boat) and has only said what others have already said. It looks like he's trying hard to find anything to post about because he wants to look active. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 10:05 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 09:55 Umasi wrote:
Superfluous, do you have any current scum reads? At the moment no, as I said I was gone for a couple hours then came back and just skimmed through the thread . I mean to go through it again in more detail once I'm finished defending myself or w/e. Two things are on my mind though. One is that I think you are town (not just to suck up to you b/c you are pressuring me). Reasons being that in my personal experience those who are most aggressive are generally town, and also that this is a semi-noob game so I'm unsure if a mafia would have the confidence to go out and control the game/ put pressure on early on. Another thing is that I dont think I've seen much (if anything) from Cloud 9. He may be in same situation as me and I'll give him Benefit of the doubt though. It's extremely odd that he specifically points out Cloud-9 as opposed to any of the other players who haven't posted. This shows pretty clearly that he's not trying at all to find scum, he doesn't even know who hasn't posted. Also looking at Kirby. Lurkers be lurking. Yet more Superfluous pressure from Umasi.... the tunnel is on?: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 11:02 Umasi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 10:58 jrkirby wrote:On July 13 2013 10:56 Umasi wrote:
He came in, emphasized his newness to the game, and it felt like he was giving excuses for not posting, not reasons.
(I realize that they're extremely similar, but I think it's a matter of tone)
the timing he came in at (right when we brought up lurkers) to be like "I'm trying not to lurk"
is just
kind of......weird?
I think it's out of place and scummy. He said he couldn't be in here at the beginning before the game started, right? No real reason to have suspicion on the lurkers yet, just note that they're lurking. The difference here, is that he's ...... like hard to articulate. He is lurking, and pops in to post a comment at such a WEIRD time like, immediately when the conversation mentions lurkers compared to otherwise contributing thoughts. I think Super is the best choice atm, but I'm by no means positive. Just hit this post by Superfluous that set off real scumbells for me: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 12:24 Superfluous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
I may be biased but I put Chromatically as the most capable scumhunter. In last game, he pretty much had the whole scum team Day1. It goes without saying that I do not Chromatically's alignment as of right now.
@Chromatically Your current scum reads? Superfluous looks really bad, he's been apologetic in his posts (not trying to rock the boat) and has only said what others have already said. It looks like he's trying hard to find anything to post about because he wants to look active. On July 13 2013 10:05 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 09:55 Umasi wrote:
Superfluous, do you have any current scum reads? At the moment no, as I said I was gone for a couple hours then came back and just skimmed through the thread . I mean to go through it again in more detail once I'm finished defending myself or w/e. Two things are on my mind though. One is that I think you are town (not just to suck up to you b/c you are pressuring me). Reasons being that in my personal experience those who are most aggressive are generally town, and also that this is a semi-noob game so I'm unsure if a mafia would have the confidence to go out and control the game/ put pressure on early on. Another thing is that I dont think I've seen much (if anything) from Cloud 9. He may be in same situation as me and I'll give him Benefit of the doubt though. It's extremely odd that he specifically points out Cloud-9 as opposed to any of the other players who haven't posted. This shows pretty clearly that he's not trying at all to find scum, he doesn't even know who hasn't posted. Also looking at Kirby. Lurkers be lurking. As I said I just skimmed over after returning. Cloud 9 was a name I didn't see when comparing the posts I saw to the player list, so I pointed it out. And I have been trying to get something to talk about other than what seem to be mini discussions between certain people. I also don't get why you're attacking me saying "I'm not trying to find scum". In my own post I said that I was going to look it over again and get reads, obviously meaning that I hadn't looked that hard for scum yet. Right now my biggest scum read is HZflank, because I still think Umasi is doing mostly pro town moves yet hz says its scummy. If it pushes to me actually being lynched I think that I'd still feel this way. He also had an early post or two that distracted somewhat from the discussion, which I'm always suspicious of. I'll give nightcat benefit of the doubt. It's a bit weird he showed up once his name came up but eh. I realize thats not really a great reason but seems like we're in semi-similar situations. Xzavier I'm more suspicious of, he didnt have many posts then in his first one he shows up saying he'll consider lynching me. It's really scummy play to lurk then show up ready to lynch imo. I completely disagree with many significant points on this post (thinking Xzavier's post is scummy, finding one lurker scummier than the other, deciding Umasi is town because he's tunneling someone). It almost seems like he's OMGUS'ing hz because of the pressure on Umasi? Seems like a viable scumbuddy tactic: Call out in the QT for someone to defend you so you don't have to get into a shitfight yourself. @Chrom: Can you explain what this post means? On July 13 2013 13:23 Chromatically wrote:
If everyone who just randomly popped out to soft call me sum could actually give their opinions on the situation, that'd be great. I also have a nitpick with this post: On July 13 2013 14:04 Chromatically wrote:
Yes, we'll technically never be able to totally disprove the possibility that Stim is town. It's just far less likely. Look at what Stim has done.
Lie about his anger
Town motivation: none
Scum motivation: screwed up the explanation because the anger was faked in the first place
Martyr
Town motivation: none, far more likely that he just explains
Scum motivation: knows he can't explain, so he acts emotional to get people to switch I feel like the anger was definitely real, and StiM was trying play play Mr. Cool Cat by claiming that he was really in control the whole time, and just pretended to be angry. Still not clear what that motivation could have been, but the above 2x2 leaves out some key points and I feel you're making a bit more assumptions that you usually do... Ok this is a long one and hurricane makes a few incorrect leaps in logic. First in NMM XLII yes stim self voted, but day 3 under zero pressure. He was under alot of pressure here when he self voted. He was under pressure. He was on tilt. He had just devoted his whole game to tunneling LoneMeow who flipped Town. Then your bolded first real revelation, unless you are in scum qt you dont know who or what is said in scum qt so trying to saythey wouldnt let him do something is just wrong, first scum game for me we had a modkill lurker and a regular lurker so there wasnt anyone to discuss things with. I'm not going to assume the scum are sitting quietly in the library at the start of a game. Maybe you can because you have that experience, but I always try to assume I'm facing a competent opponent. Also why defend stim? Why not let him defend himself like you advocate? Once I had a town read on him, I thought he was dangerously close to just ragequitting the game which would leave town one man down. But that isn't the reason I defended him. In fact, I was actually still pretty mad at him. But leaving my feelings aside, I thought he was town. And town doesn't want to lynch town, no matter how bad they are (despite what Gotard says).On July 13 2013 16:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 16:02 Umasi wrote:
Alright, here, hurricane. Who do you think is worth voting at this time?
From your post, I got the gist that it'd be Superfluous or me. Is that correct? I'm still a bit mad at StiM for his post implying that it was our job to keep him entertained. I'm going to give myself some time to cool off on that, because I don't appreciate people quitting on my team (if he is in fact town). This is a time investment for everybody, and it's damn selfish of him to pack up his ball and go home after really light pressure. Townville: Kirby pressured me appropriately after my opener. I like that. He also seems to have the same attitude as me regarding the quick StiMwagon: On July 13 2013 13:31 jrkirby wrote:
2 votes land on a guy is quick succession, I'd be stupid if I weren't at least a BIT suspicious. As far as I can tell, stim is just acting like a bit of an idiot, is flustered, and frustrated. Doesn't seem like scumtell to me. You're free to have your vote, and I don't have a solid scumread on either of you, but I will be looking a bit more closely at your filters. hz is aggressively posting reads and seems to emulate my thoughts on the early Superfluous post: On July 13 2013 09:42 hzflank wrote:I think Jrkirby's and Sponge's opening posts had the same motivation: to get discussion moving. Both have done this and we have multiple discussions taking place. Since then, Sponge did a little coaching. Sponge has come under pressure from multiple people (for his opening post), and has dealt with it while being reasonably open. The only time that he has not been open is by refusing to post the other version of his opening post. Sponge did a little coaching again as he tried to stop Umasi from defending him. So far my read on Sponge has moved very slightly towards town. Since his opening, Jrkirby has attacked Sponge for his opening post, and done nothing else. That's fine because it is early and Jrkirby is pushing to get a reaction from someone. This is not scummy to me, null read. Umasi has defended Hurricane, which cannot be viewed as scummy at this point. Umasi has attacked Superfluous. I would say that this attack could be scummy as it is based on nothing, but it could just be to get Super to post more (he only has one post). Umasi then repeats that he thinks Super's post is scummy and votes for him. The problem I have with this is that Umasi claims Super's only post was scummy, when I do not think that it was. On July 13 2013 08:33 Superfluous wrote:
While I agree that we should lynch someone if they are super scummy, I'd like to point out that voting for no lynch is an option. Assuming I'm interpreting the rules/setup right, mafia only has 1 kp so there's no immediate motive for lynching such as reducing kp. It may be a stronger play to not lynch and hope that cop(if there is one) gets a turn to check before lynch. It is a risk though because I believe we are not guaranteed to have a cop. Just an idea I wanted to throw out and get your guys' thoughts on. If Umasi was looking for a reaction then I do not understand why he posted: On July 13 2013 08:59 Umasi wrote:
Where the hell are you. You popped in, gave a single post, that I think is scummy as crap, still haven't show back up. Pretty confusing, because the post you gave was irrelevant. How was Super's post scummy as crap? I do not think that Umasi is looking for scum, and if he is not just fishing for Super to respond then I think that Umasi is just looking for a neutral place to put his early vote. Unlike Jrkirby's, Umasi's vote is not a troll vote. I have a slight scum read on Umasi. Xzavier posted some decent thoughts (although he really didn't go out on any limbs): On July 13 2013 11:19 Xzavier wrote:On July 13 2013 08:33 Superfluous wrote:
While I agree that we should lynch someone if they are super scummy, I'd like to point out that voting for no lynch is an option. Assuming I'm interpreting the rules/setup right, mafia only has 1 kp so there's no immediate motive for lynching such as reducing kp. It may be a stronger play to not lynch and hope that cop(if there is one) gets a turn to check before lynch. It is a risk though because I believe we are not guaranteed to have a cop. Just an idea I wanted to throw out and get your guys' thoughts on. i know usami has touched on this, but i see voting for No-lynch is like sacrificing a townie or playing russian roullet for zero prize money. its just basically saying "i want to start this game a townie down" it seems silly to me, if somebody comes and gives me an ungodly reason for no-lynching ill hear it. but i see it as silly. Also from playing with usami before, hes a super fucking hyper aggressive person who needs like a single post to tunnel somebody for a full day, that can be bad. we need to keep our eyes open and looking at multiple people. As i learned my first game, a tunnel vision day1 can lead to a mislynch, or in this gametype, a no-lynch. Its far better to lynch scum, and thats what we should try to do. Even day1 we lynch either a lurker or our top scumread, if nobody has any strong scumreads, lynching the scummiest lurker is the best townplay day1. (it yields the highest chance of killing scum while creating the best pro-town enviroment) with that im also shocked of how active stim-addict is being. its nice to see a usual lurker picking it up leaving less for the scum to hide behind :D again, even Superfluous is at the top of my scumdar, he isnt high enough to deserve a vote yet. I want to lynch a lurker or superfluous depending on how he reacts to our posts and the events of the day. if the rest of it goes uneventful/no major scumslips i want to fuck up a lurker as i believe that to be the best pro-town action. Rainbows is active and is claiming credit for the StiM wagon. If StiM is town, as I suspect, I don't think scum would be claiming lead on an eventual green flip: On July 13 2013 15:43 Rainbows wrote:
Sponge, I started the whole Stim thing. Chrom just questioned both of us then pooped all over him with it :p Planet Neutral:I've found confusing material on Chrom that some may deem scummy (misrepresenting facts, leaping to conclusions, overblowing alignment-neutral mistakes). However, he also did his usual early game Poke'n'Prod, getting people to clarify their random claims that might otherwise have gone unchecked (very town). Umasi is incredibly active, and hunting. The logic leaps, confirmation bias, and clumsy attacks aren't really helping the town, however (other than to just provide really obvious pressure). If there was a shade between Green and Black, I'd use it because I think the three options for Umasi are 'Bad Town' 'Good Scum' and 'Good Town That I Just Have Trouble Reading For Whatever Reason'. Scum Central:Superfluous has a lot of ground to make up. I don't like people attacking him for his bad policy, but at the end of the day, that's not the only thing going against him. I really disagree with his reads, and that has to account for something: On July 13 2013 12:24 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
I may be biased but I put Chromatically as the most capable scumhunter. In last game, he pretty much had the whole scum team Day1. It goes without saying that I do not Chromatically's alignment as of right now.
@Chromatically Your current scum reads? Superfluous looks really bad, he's been apologetic in his posts (not trying to rock the boat) and has only said what others have already said. It looks like he's trying hard to find anything to post about because he wants to look active. On July 13 2013 10:05 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 09:55 Umasi wrote:
Superfluous, do you have any current scum reads? At the moment no, as I said I was gone for a couple hours then came back and just skimmed through the thread . I mean to go through it again in more detail once I'm finished defending myself or w/e. Two things are on my mind though. One is that I think you are town (not just to suck up to you b/c you are pressuring me). Reasons being that in my personal experience those who are most aggressive are generally town, and also that this is a semi-noob game so I'm unsure if a mafia would have the confidence to go out and control the game/ put pressure on early on. Another thing is that I dont think I've seen much (if anything) from Cloud 9. He may be in same situation as me and I'll give him Benefit of the doubt though. It's extremely odd that he specifically points out Cloud-9 as opposed to any of the other players who haven't posted. This shows pretty clearly that he's not trying at all to find scum, he doesn't even know who hasn't posted. Also looking at Kirby. Lurkers be lurking. As I said I just skimmed over after returning. Cloud 9 was a name I didn't see when comparing the posts I saw to the player list, so I pointed it out. And I have been trying to get something to talk about other than what seem to be mini discussions between certain people. I also don't get why you're attacking me saying "I'm not trying to find scum". In my own post I said that I was going to look it over again and get reads, obviously meaning that I hadn't looked that hard for scum yet. Right now my biggest scum read is HZflank, because I still think Umasi is doing mostly pro town moves yet hz says its scummy. If it pushes to me actually being lynched I think that I'd still feel this way. He also had an early post or two that distracted somewhat from the discussion, which I'm always suspicious of. I'll give nightcat benefit of the doubt. It's a bit weird he showed up once his name came up but eh. I realize thats not really a great reason but seems like we're in semi-similar situations. Xzavier I'm more suspicious of, he didnt have many posts then in his first one he shows up saying he'll consider lynching me. It's really scummy play to lurk then show up ready to lynch imo. So the only reason you have super as scum is because you really dont like his reads? Check the timestamp. It was very early in the game. When I have vastly disparate reads than someone else that early, it sets of warning bells for me. I thought this was worth noting, yes. On July 15 2013 07:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
@ Umasi
@ Rainbows
We three control this lynch. I think everyone else is entrenched (via either conviction or inactivity). If you agree, we need to establish some things between the three of us.
First, do we all agree that both of the current wagons are acceptable lynch candidates? The start, also notice "current wagons" recruiting town to control these 2 wagons. At this point, we were closing in on the deadline. (The admin later moved the deadline back a couple hours which gave us more time than we thought.) The town had agreed we needed to ensure a lynch, and no one had a majority yet. I reached out to both sides of the aisle, and pulled my towniest mobile read from the Super wagon, and the towniest mobile read from the Kirby wagon. If the goal is to ensure the lynch with time winding down, it doesn't make sense to try to gather votes for a third party so close to the deadline. That's not to say I didn't like both wagons; I thought both were scum. On July 15 2013 07:42 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
To the rest of y'all, is there anyone else that is okay with lynching either target tonight? I know you may lean one way or another, but to avoid mafia deadline shenanigans that may lead to a No Lynch (or mislynch) day, this would work better with one more person. More recruiting but you have to be ok with these 2 wagons. On July 15 2013 08:31 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
DOUBLE SECRET TRIBUNAL MEETING
Attn: If you are not part of the Incredible Tribunal For Make Great Benefit Lynching Daily, you must stop reading this post now and cover your eyes.
Alright, now that all the legit folks are in here, I think we've gotten some useful information. We've confirmed that we control 4 mobile votes today (this may change in the future). Sponge, Umasi, Rainbows, Nightcat.
In addition, we have two semi-mobile votes in Chromatically (probably) and hzflank (maybe probably), both unconfirmed however. We could go after the scummiest Other. The more I think about Rainbow's 'town-town' claim, the more it seems like a possibility. I'm still leaning Super as scummiest, but we can talk about that after I get thoughts on the following play:
We could totally drop Gotard or Koshi tonight if we wanted.
Koshi is in the 'too scum to be scum' category for me right now. Gonna dive his filter. Gotard is gotard. For right now, I want tribunal thoughts on this play. So this is where you say you are ok with gotard, but you offer no case at all. After this you say ok we will keep the wagons the same, and just read other peoples cases without makeing your own. It was close to the deadline. There wasn't a lot of time to post cases. I floated the idea to see if other people thought Gotard was scummy enough to ninja-lynch, and the response I got seemed to be 'yes, he's scummy, but no let's stick with the wagons'. So I dropped it. On July 16 2013 01:53 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 15 2013 23:46 Nightcat99 wrote:
I just woke up but i have a question i been thinking about.
Regardless that there is a mislynch, do you think the scum will kill one of the tribunal tonight to ensure that theres less voting power tonight, and if none of them die tonight does that make a the tribunal suspicious? For the record, the Tribunal is not a persistent entity. It was formed based on the flexible votes for the Day. Tomorrow, if it is necessary, it will be composed of an entirely new set of people (which may or may not include me). The group is valuable because it has vote mobility. It was necessary because Town needed to ensure a lynch. It wont be necessary, it wasnt necessary. The only time we need to be afraid of vote switches for a no lynch is if there are a majority on one person who is scum and a second scum is on the same wagon, and the second scum jumps off for a mislynch, well guess what we now have 2 almost confirmed scum to lynch at that point. Only time this is really dangerous is if we are at yolo. Scum arent going to make a mislynch on someone not scum, and town better not be stupid enough to let a mislynch through. What you did was recruit people who you made sure were ok with only the current wagons and made sure no one got off. What you did was incredibly scummy here and I dont know why I am the only one who really sees what happened. I explained why I thought the Tribunal was a good play: It ensured a lynch (and took the lynch power out of mafia hands). It also gave us some valuable reads on the members and Nightcat for the Town to analyze. This accusation reeks of Captain Hindsight, and no one echoed your opinion in the heat of the moment. On July 16 2013 07:12 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 16 2013 07:03 Xzavier wrote:i remember asking people to check the Tribunal after it was just the three of them, what i mostly wanted to know was who tried to join them, nobody came out and directly said as such, but when the list of votes they controlled came out somebody knew was on the list: Nightcat, a hardcore lurker at the time. now he was not invited to join this team, i dont recall him asking to either, i just remember him following the wishes of it.(However indirectly as it may be) This blinks scummy on my scumdar. On July 15 2013 08:19 Nightcat99 wrote:can you make a case defending why you would not vote for JrKirby at this time?
Can you tell me why you think Superfluous is the better lynch target? no i cannot make a case to not vote for jrkirby because i stated that i want to make sure to have 1 person lynch, when i came back it seem super was the more likely target but since you guys disagree. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE JRKIRBY being given the option of switching his vote for a simple reason of "since you guys disagree" and not making a case or updating any reads is bad, because its a super easy for scum to hide without drawing any attention to himself. his entire reason for voting is "the person whos more likely to be lynched" thats a roundabout way of describing a scums voting pattern. they want to blend in and not stick out. So throwing his vote early and the person more likely to be lynched is a great way to lurk successfully.
My scumdar says Scum on nightcat right now______ now im happy with how hurricane reacted to me saying keep your circle small and that further solidifies my stupidly massive town read on him(sponge) (scum would want to try to control as many votes as possible, they would already control the "holes" in there town circle) so the people saying that one of the three is scum, its not him: The points brought up against rainbow has totally shattered the confidence of my town read on him, his actions are nonsensical. I think that Usami is town still as he has played a far more pro-town game and has cut out almost all of his spam (from games iv previously played with him) while i know meta is bad to use for a case in newbie games, but i feel like a scum wouldnt try so hard to improve his town play as they would replicate it. This is another reason for my Umasi read after all of that. if we are assuming scum tried to get one player onto the "tribunal" they were either succesful and got Rainbows on it, or used it as an excuse for nightcat to sheep his vote. Good analysis, but I don't think Scum tried to get one of their own onto the Tribunal. That would only make sense if it were a Scum-Town lynch. I'm leaning toward thinking Super was Town, which makes yesterday a Town-Town lynch. Why would scum care how we shuffled our votes on the titanic? They're just happy a lynch is happening. To me, apathy yesterday would be a much stronger correlation with scumminess (a point that can be taken in tandem with your analysis). So now you are saying it was town town lynch? What changed your mind on super? The ease of which we could throw votes around was a big part of it. If it were town-scum, I would have expected more backlash from someone (scumbuddy) when we piled votes onto one of the candidates with time running down. Also, if you think Nightcat is scum, that supports the town-town lynch theory. There are other reasons, but I went over them already in my post analyzing the consequences of the Super wagon if he were scum. On July 17 2013 02:17 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Running with that, if Super is scum, the next logical avenue to chase down is the Kirby lynch. If Superfluous is scum, then either he was bussed, or there were scum entrenched on the Kirby wagon. StiM/Onegu, Chromatically, and Gotard were the three entrenched votes. I don't think Onegu/StiM or Chromatically are scum (and Chrom offered that his vote was semi-mobile). But it's hard to believe that only one scum (Gotard, in this case) was on a wagon to save their team. So I guess a Day 1 bus is possible.
Chasing down the Bus Super avenue, that'd tag HZ as the only likely scum on that wagon (as the guy who started the wagon). Now, hz is a phenomenal mafia player, but that's a hell of a play. He was ready to paint his face and go to war to get Super lynched. Everyone has to make that call on their own. I don't think scum would bus like that, and most of the thread thinks hz is town.
Neither of these scenarios seem as likely as a town/town wagon with an arbitrary distribution of scumvotes to me. : On July 16 2013 09:55 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Onegu, I'm repeating this now so it will hopefully sink in by the time the lynch comes around.
I believe it is currently the Mafia's plan to take your case and parlay it into a mislynch. Once I refute your case, please don't be overwhelmed by confirmation bias of random people coming out of the woodwork agreeing with you. They are likely scum. Already said it but this post is incredibly scummy. PEOPLE OF THE THREAD WHEN ONEGUS CASE IS SOLID AND PEOPLE START TO AGREE THEY ARE SCUM VOTE THEM NOT ME! If you think that this is a scummy play, that's your opinion. It's not, and you'll find that out in endgame, I guess. Hint: Your case isn't solid. (And I'm not the only one who thinks so.) It's confirmation bias at its most dangerous.On July 16 2013 10:10 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 16 2013 09:58 hzflank wrote:
So you suddenly think I am scum because I caught your slip? If you think that's a slip, I guess that's your right. I thought you were a better player, so the more reasonable explanation to me at this point is that you're the SK (omg you slipped because you knew it was SK and not vig after the kill) or scum than town. Although it looks like Onegu is going to be in full tunnel mode despite the obvious flaws in his train-of-thought during the downtime. On July 15 2013 10:13 Onegu wrote:Sorry hope you guus dont mind if I post as I go, some of it may have been addressed already but I want to give my take like it just happend. I would have been all over the stim lynch. I really want to lynch all liars. Then hurricane says Immediately, the first thing I thought of was that there is no way in hell the scum QT would let him continue ranting and raving like this. They would have told him immediately to chill out and claim he was joking too, or something. Bolding because this is the first real revelation I've had on this case. There is no way you can know this my first game sometimes I would ask a question and not get a reponse for hours, so there is no way you should ever make this assumption. It was unique analysis that I was bringing to the table. I would assume scum would be very active in the early stages of the game, laying plans and setting out to plot our demise. I don't think it's unreasonable to speculate in this manner, especially considering Onegu can confirm that I was right in my read (StiM / Onegu is not scum). At the least it's independent analysis and a null read. I'm actually pretty proud of that point. On July 15 2013 11:04 Onegu wrote:On July 14 2013 03:21 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 17:01 Umasi wrote:
why is me thinking he's slightly towny a big deal though? I wouldn't say it's a big deal. I just wanted to see what evidence you had gathered to make your read, because it's useful for the town if you can help us identify Chrom as town. @Chrom: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 19:17 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +@Chrom: Can you explain what this post means? On July 13 2013 13:23 Chromatically wrote:
If everyone who just randomly popped out to soft call me sum could actually give their opinions on the situation, that'd be great. I also have a nitpick with this post: On July 13 2013 14:04 Chromatically wrote:
Yes, we'll technically never be able to totally disprove the possibility that Stim is town. It's just far less likely. Look at what Stim has done.
Lie about his anger
Town motivation: none
Scum motivation: screwed up the explanation because the anger was faked in the first place
Martyr
Town motivation: none, far more likely that he just explains
Scum motivation: knows he can't explain, so he acts emotional to get people to switch I feel like the anger was definitely real, and StiM was trying play play Mr. Cool Cat by claiming that he was really in control the whole time, and just pretended to be angry. Still not clear what that motivation could have been, but the above 2x2 leaves out some key points and I feel you're making a bit more assumptions that you usually do... Several people suddenly posted to tell Stim that I could be scum, and then didn't actually give an opinion on Stim. It was really wierd. You've brought up this same idea a few times about Stim trying to "act cool", but I don't see any particular reason to believe it. Why do you? As I've said before, there will always be a possibility of a town explanation, it's just less likely. If Stim is town, he'll return with a clear explanation. If you want to bring up meta, town should have lynched Stim in XLII. He could have easily been scum, and I said as much in the obs. A more convincing point is that Stim never reacted this way to pressure in XLIII, even though several votes were thrown on him over the course (if I remember). Hypothetical: If Stim doesn't return, what will you do? If Stim hadn't have returned, I'd probably drop the issue entirely and focus my efforts elsewhere, anticipating a /replacement or mod action. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 19:28 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 16:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 16:02 Umasi wrote:
Alright, here, hurricane. Who do you think is worth voting at this time?
From your post, I got the gist that it'd be Superfluous or me. Is that correct? I'm still a bit mad at StiM for his post implying that it was our job to keep him entertained. I'm going to give myself some time to cool off on that, because I don't appreciate people quitting on my team (if he is in fact town). This is a time investment for everybody, and it's damn selfish of him to pack up his ball and go home after really light pressure. Townville: Kirby pressured me appropriately after my opener. I like that. He also seems to have the same attitude as me regarding the quick StiMwagon: On July 13 2013 13:31 jrkirby wrote:
2 votes land on a guy is quick succession, I'd be stupid if I weren't at least a BIT suspicious. As far as I can tell, stim is just acting like a bit of an idiot, is flustered, and frustrated. Doesn't seem like scumtell to me. You're free to have your vote, and I don't have a solid scumread on either of you, but I will be looking a bit more closely at your filters. hz is aggressively posting reads and seems to emulate my thoughts on the early Superfluous post: On July 13 2013 09:42 hzflank wrote:I think Jrkirby's and Sponge's opening posts had the same motivation: to get discussion moving. Both have done this and we have multiple discussions taking place. Since then, Sponge did a little coaching. Sponge has come under pressure from multiple people (for his opening post), and has dealt with it while being reasonably open. The only time that he has not been open is by refusing to post the other version of his opening post. Sponge did a little coaching again as he tried to stop Umasi from defending him. So far my read on Sponge has moved very slightly towards town. Since his opening, Jrkirby has attacked Sponge for his opening post, and done nothing else. That's fine because it is early and Jrkirby is pushing to get a reaction from someone. This is not scummy to me, null read. Umasi has defended Hurricane, which cannot be viewed as scummy at this point. Umasi has attacked Superfluous. I would say that this attack could be scummy as it is based on nothing, but it could just be to get Super to post more (he only has one post). Umasi then repeats that he thinks Super's post is scummy and votes for him. The problem I have with this is that Umasi claims Super's only post was scummy, when I do not think that it was. On July 13 2013 08:33 Superfluous wrote:
While I agree that we should lynch someone if they are super scummy, I'd like to point out that voting for no lynch is an option. Assuming I'm interpreting the rules/setup right, mafia only has 1 kp so there's no immediate motive for lynching such as reducing kp. It may be a stronger play to not lynch and hope that cop(if there is one) gets a turn to check before lynch. It is a risk though because I believe we are not guaranteed to have a cop. Just an idea I wanted to throw out and get your guys' thoughts on. If Umasi was looking for a reaction then I do not understand why he posted: On July 13 2013 08:59 Umasi wrote:
Where the hell are you. You popped in, gave a single post, that I think is scummy as crap, still haven't show back up. Pretty confusing, because the post you gave was irrelevant. How was Super's post scummy as crap? I do not think that Umasi is looking for scum, and if he is not just fishing for Super to respond then I think that Umasi is just looking for a neutral place to put his early vote. Unlike Jrkirby's, Umasi's vote is not a troll vote. I have a slight scum read on Umasi. Xzavier posted some decent thoughts (although he really didn't go out on any limbs): On July 13 2013 11:19 Xzavier wrote:On July 13 2013 08:33 Superfluous wrote:
While I agree that we should lynch someone if they are super scummy, I'd like to point out that voting for no lynch is an option. Assuming I'm interpreting the rules/setup right, mafia only has 1 kp so there's no immediate motive for lynching such as reducing kp. It may be a stronger play to not lynch and hope that cop(if there is one) gets a turn to check before lynch. It is a risk though because I believe we are not guaranteed to have a cop. Just an idea I wanted to throw out and get your guys' thoughts on. i know usami has touched on this, but i see voting for No-lynch is like sacrificing a townie or playing russian roullet for zero prize money. its just basically saying "i want to start this game a townie down" it seems silly to me, if somebody comes and gives me an ungodly reason for no-lynching ill hear it. but i see it as silly. Also from playing with usami before, hes a super fucking hyper aggressive person who needs like a single post to tunnel somebody for a full day, that can be bad. we need to keep our eyes open and looking at multiple people. As i learned my first game, a tunnel vision day1 can lead to a mislynch, or in this gametype, a no-lynch. Its far better to lynch scum, and thats what we should try to do. Even day1 we lynch either a lurker or our top scumread, if nobody has any strong scumreads, lynching the scummiest lurker is the best townplay day1. (it yields the highest chance of killing scum while creating the best pro-town enviroment) with that im also shocked of how active stim-addict is being. its nice to see a usual lurker picking it up leaving less for the scum to hide behind :D again, even Superfluous is at the top of my scumdar, he isnt high enough to deserve a vote yet. I want to lynch a lurker or superfluous depending on how he reacts to our posts and the events of the day. if the rest of it goes uneventful/no major scumslips i want to fuck up a lurker as i believe that to be the best pro-town action. Rainbows is active and is claiming credit for the StiM wagon. If StiM is town, as I suspect, I don't think scum would be claiming lead on an eventual green flip: On July 13 2013 15:43 Rainbows wrote:
Sponge, I started the whole Stim thing. Chrom just questioned both of us then pooped all over him with it :p Planet Neutral:I've found confusing material on Chrom that some may deem scummy (misrepresenting facts, leaping to conclusions, overblowing alignment-neutral mistakes). However, he also did his usual early game Poke'n'Prod, getting people to clarify their random claims that might otherwise have gone unchecked (very town). Umasi is incredibly active, and hunting. The logic leaps, confirmation bias, and clumsy attacks aren't really helping the town, however (other than to just provide really obvious pressure). If there was a shade between Green and Black, I'd use it because I think the three options for Umasi are 'Bad Town' 'Good Scum' and 'Good Town That I Just Have Trouble Reading For Whatever Reason'. Scum Central:Superfluous has a lot of ground to make up. I don't like people attacking him for his bad policy, but at the end of the day, that's not the only thing going against him. I really disagree with his reads, and that has to account for something: On July 13 2013 12:24 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
I may be biased but I put Chromatically as the most capable scumhunter. In last game, he pretty much had the whole scum team Day1. It goes without saying that I do not Chromatically's alignment as of right now.
@Chromatically Your current scum reads? Superfluous looks really bad, he's been apologetic in his posts (not trying to rock the boat) and has only said what others have already said. It looks like he's trying hard to find anything to post about because he wants to look active. On July 13 2013 10:05 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 09:55 Umasi wrote:
Superfluous, do you have any current scum reads? At the moment no, as I said I was gone for a couple hours then came back and just skimmed through the thread . I mean to go through it again in more detail once I'm finished defending myself or w/e. Two things are on my mind though. One is that I think you are town (not just to suck up to you b/c you are pressuring me). Reasons being that in my personal experience those who are most aggressive are generally town, and also that this is a semi-noob game so I'm unsure if a mafia would have the confidence to go out and control the game/ put pressure on early on. Another thing is that I dont think I've seen much (if anything) from Cloud 9. He may be in same situation as me and I'll give him Benefit of the doubt though. It's extremely odd that he specifically points out Cloud-9 as opposed to any of the other players who haven't posted. This shows pretty clearly that he's not trying at all to find scum, he doesn't even know who hasn't posted. Also looking at Kirby. Lurkers be lurking. As I said I just skimmed over after returning. Cloud 9 was a name I didn't see when comparing the posts I saw to the player list, so I pointed it out. And I have been trying to get something to talk about other than what seem to be mini discussions between certain people. I also don't get why you're attacking me saying "I'm not trying to find scum". In my own post I said that I was going to look it over again and get reads, obviously meaning that I hadn't looked that hard for scum yet. Right now my biggest scum read is HZflank, because I still think Umasi is doing mostly pro town moves yet hz says its scummy. If it pushes to me actually being lynched I think that I'd still feel this way. He also had an early post or two that distracted somewhat from the discussion, which I'm always suspicious of. I'll give nightcat benefit of the doubt. It's a bit weird he showed up once his name came up but eh. I realize thats not really a great reason but seems like we're in semi-similar situations. Xzavier I'm more suspicious of, he didnt have many posts then in his first one he shows up saying he'll consider lynching me. It's really scummy play to lurk then show up ready to lynch imo. These are some wierd-ass wierd reads (formatted in a list, might I add...). You give town reads to a large number of people based on almost nothing? You say that me and Umasi are actively scumhunting, and then say we're null? All followed by a sheep on Super while waiting to commit to Stim. It all feels really odd. Why is xzavier more townie then Umasi/me? Why did you post town reads in the first place? I'm surprised you do not agree with my reads. I shall re-evaluate them. You are Neutral to me for the reasons I mentioned: while you and Umasi are scumhunting (+), I believe you're doing it in an anti-town manner (-). That is: making logical leaps, confirmation bias, poor analysis. Scum can scumhunt too, and that's exactly how I imagine they'd do it. I also don't feel like I'm sheeping Superfluous. I raised some independent analysis regarding him in my earlier post (centering on the fact that our reads are very different, signifying a disconnect from my own POV that is significant enough to be Town-Scum). Are there any other glaring mistakes in particular you'd like to hear my thoughts on? On July 13 2013 19:37 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 15:53 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 15:43 Rainbows wrote:
Sponge, I started the whole Stim thing. Chrom just questioned both of us then pooped all over him with it :p Chrom has made a couple missteps that I would consider 'uncharacteristic'. At the very least, they are poor play I did not expect from him. 1. His enthusiasm to lynch StiM after the blow-up (surely we can all see that it was more likely immature and pissy play from StiM and alignment-independent) contained logical leaks and overblows the importance of whether StiM lied about being mad or not. 2. Saying Superfluous was trying to not 'make waves' when he was the lone voice speaking up for an unpopular policy (Day 1 No Lynch) More importantly, when viewed as a whole, the bolded section above is a big stop sign on my vote to lynch StiM: Why would scum not alert StiM that everyone and their mother knew the jokepost was a joke and let him carry on in this manner? He'd have to be willfully disobeying his team, or (more likely) flying solo. If someone can give me a satisfactory answer to that, I'd feel much better about a StiM lynch. 1) You seem confident that Stim's blowup was alignment independent, can you address my earlier posts about why it's more likely from scum? I think it's pretty hard to overblow the importance of someone lying about their motivation without being able to explain it. You disagree? 2) The apologetic tone is the entire reason why Super looks bad. He's trying not to draw attention to himself and not to incite anyone (scummy). The Nolynch thing is totally non alignment indicative, which you should know. Explain your scumread on Super more. On July 13 2013 12:24 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
I may be biased but I put Chromatically as the most capable scumhunter. In last game, he pretty much had the whole scum team Day1. It goes without saying that I do not Chromatically's alignment as of right now.
@Chromatically Your current scum reads? Superfluous looks really bad, he's been apologetic in his posts (not trying to rock the boat) and has only said what others have already said. It looks like he's trying hard to find anything to post about because he wants to look active. On July 13 2013 10:05 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 09:55 Umasi wrote:
Superfluous, do you have any current scum reads? At the moment no, as I said I was gone for a couple hours then came back and just skimmed through the thread . I mean to go through it again in more detail once I'm finished defending myself or w/e. Two things are on my mind though. One is that I think you are town (not just to suck up to you b/c you are pressuring me). Reasons being that in my personal experience those who are most aggressive are generally town, and also that this is a semi-noob game so I'm unsure if a mafia would have the confidence to go out and control the game/ put pressure on early on. Another thing is that I dont think I've seen much (if anything) from Cloud 9. He may be in same situation as me and I'll give him Benefit of the doubt though. It's extremely odd that he specifically points out Cloud-9 as opposed to any of the other players who haven't posted. This shows pretty clearly that he's not trying at all to find scum, he doesn't even know who hasn't posted. Also looking at Kirby. Lurkers be lurking. As I said I just skimmed over after returning. Cloud 9 was a name I didn't see when comparing the posts I saw to the player list, so I pointed it out. And I have been trying to get something to talk about other than what seem to be mini discussions between certain people. I also don't get why you're attacking me saying "I'm not trying to find scum". In my own post I said that I was going to look it over again and get reads, obviously meaning that I hadn't looked that hard for scum yet. Right now my biggest scum read is HZflank, because I still think Umasi is doing mostly pro town moves yet hz says its scummy. If it pushes to me actually being lynched I think that I'd still feel this way. He also had an early post or two that distracted somewhat from the discussion, which I'm always suspicious of. I'll give nightcat benefit of the doubt. It's a bit weird he showed up once his name came up but eh. I realize thats not really a great reason but seems like we're in semi-similar situations. Xzavier I'm more suspicious of, he didnt have many posts then in his first one he shows up saying he'll consider lynching me. It's really scummy play to lurk then show up ready to lynch imo. I really don't like that last part where he gives one lurker the FoS, but a second one a free pass in the same post. I don't like that his reads seem diametrically opposed to mine, which implies a significant difference in frame-of-reference. I don't like his case on HZ (which is a case in name only). I don't like that he's suspicious of townies who enter the thread willing to lynch. On July 13 2013 21:48 Chromatically wrote:
Sponge, could you also elaborate on you Umasi read? As I told Umasi late last night when we were the only two in the thread, I love his scumhunting, but I cringe at his methods. He's got a big problem with confirmation bias and attacking his target when he should just be poking, bringing the level of discourse down into the mud too soon. Like I said in the earlier post, I think he's Green-Black: Bad Town, Good Scum, or Good Town That I Just Can't Read. The early game aggression is much preferred to the alternative (lurking), but if he keeps some of these traits up into the late game, I'm worried for town. Moving on: On July 13 2013 21:54 Koshi wrote:I am from Belgium guys, This game started at 12PM and I was tired after a working week. I read the thread once now and my initial (this is without using filters, just reading all the posts) is that H.Sponge build enough town kred to not get lynched day 1 no matter what. I loved his opening post, and I loved his defense on that post. Even if he is scum, he has been very helpful to town, and every town should go and read that opening post. Scum reads are on Umasi and Chroma. Umasi because his entire early posts were just sucking up to H.Sponge, which is just not useful at all, H. Sponge clearly doesn't need to be defended like this. Another thing I dont like about Umasi is him trying to redirect the thread twice for a Superfluous train on a rather useless moment. Superfluous entered the thread with a bad post, but went afk after, which is not a clear scumread. Not enough the get a train going, and make the rest of the day useless. Chroma is currently tunneling so heavily on StiMaDDict. The guy is afk, treat him as an afk bad town till he comes back. It is a good thing to spark some conversation around StiMaDDict, but at this point I feel that Chroma is derailing more than necessarily. It's just tunneling into oblivion. I start filtering now: Reading Chroma his filter I get a serious scum vibe. Post like this: On July 13 2013 11:39 Chromatically wrote:
Also just noticed that Sponge hasn't given a single opinion on anyone all game after saying that he wanted people to judge him on his scumhunting, interesting. This is just being a jack-ass, at least it would be if you say things like this in real life. In mafia it is trying to put suspicion onto somebody without saying anything. I haven't crosschecked this message with the referring Sponge message but it feels dirty. What was your intention while typing this down Chromo? @ Chromo, Do you agree that this is a very suspicious post? And explain to me why it is "interesting" that Sponge likes to have interaction on his scumreads while playing this game? Reading Umasi his filter after the Chroma filter makes me want to lynch one of these 2 guys. Umasi and Chroma are either bromancing it up on the stimaddict lynch, or they are both scum. Here is Umasi his game till now: --> Defend Sponge while pushing lynch on Superfluous. --> Argue with Sponge about Chroma while pusing a lynch on StiMaDDict. I hate Umasi and Chrom as lynch targets for Day 1. Town does not want to lynch guys this active and scumhunting this hard. Regardless of the fact that I think Superfluous is scummier at this point, I'd push for a Lurker lynch over one of either of Umasi or Chrom. ---------------- Current Events: I think StiM's case on Kirby is weak. Lots of fallacies in there. Everything quoted is interpreted single-mindedly as scum, and even the stuff that's pro town is justified as 'this is clearly scum trying to look town'. Please re read this post. He doesnt like someone because they have a different POV. Italso seems like he wants people to be with his scumhunting methods. Early in the game, someone having vastly disparate reads from you is noticeable. I think that's reasonable suspicion. The second part of your concern doesn't really make sense. Maybe you can elaborate. On July 15 2013 14:47 Onegu wrote:On July 15 2013 07:30 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 15 2013 07:26 Rainbows wrote:
Acceptable yes. Im really unsure of who to vote but super seems best imo.
Both might be town. You mentioned that, and that's why this is sort of an unholy alliance. Even though the odds are staggeringly in your favor, I would actually be more inclined to believe they were both scum rather than both town. I feel like I have a decent eye for town-on-town crime, although to be fair, kirby and super haven't been sniping at each other NEARLY enough for my taste. Regardless, this is good news. Now we just need Umasi to confirm he finds both players scummy, and we can decide this lynch. This just seems like you are setting your self up that no matter the flip you dont get heat. I honestly don't know what Onegu is reading. So I'm not allowed to update my reads as people post more content? Onegu is in full confirmation bias mode now. On July 15 2013 14:49 Onegu wrote:On July 15 2013 07:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
@ Umasi
@ Rainbows
We three control this lynch. I think everyone else is entrenched (via either conviction or inactivity). If you agree, we need to establish some things between the three of us.
First, do we all agree that both of the current wagons are acceptable lynch candidates? Here you make sure 100% that the wagons stay exacty the same there will be one of these 2 town lynched. Here, you look silly because I tried to orchestrate an off-man lurker lynch late in day 1, proving this point completely false. On July 15 2013 15:57 Onegu wrote:
Scumteam
Hurricane
Koshi
Rainbow/gotard
I am really confidant in my hurricane read btw, he made sure he led the council and could make sure we never got off a town/town bandwagon. Alot of his posts just seem like he wants town cred, unlike last game. I didn't know it was a town/town bandwagon, and at the end actually tried to get a Gotard lynch with the votes we'd accumulated. Read the thread. Also, I've openly refused town cred for posts that I don't think deserved it (first one). On July 15 2013 19:16 Onegu wrote:On July 15 2013 18:50 Gotard wrote:Hi Onegu. Nice to see ya! Chromatically - For me he looks more like a town that mafia. He tends to put himself in a headlights by creating wagons and defending them really strongly with no fear (but sometimes he's tunneling himself like when he was pressuring Stim). In 'The Super Case' he brought good points and made some more room for discussion. Would he make such a strong defense to save his scum buddy? I don't thing so because after Super flipping scum he would be in a big trouble. Pushing lynch isn't scummy if you have good points and your target barely shows and signs of life innocence. On July 15 2013 15:57 Onegu wrote:
Scumteam
Hurricane
Koshi
Rainbow/gotard
I am really confidant in my hurricane read btw, he made sure he led the council and could make sure we never got off a town/town bandwagon. Alot of his posts just seem like he wants town cred, unlike last game. Hurricane ensured lynch that day. Everyone agreed that both of them are super scummy. I think leadership like that is useful when you need majority to lynch. His posts are super pro town in general and leading town like that even in wrong direction isn't scummy to me. Koshi - reading comprehension... I will address him later after reading his filter. I will say this it is hard for me to be objective since I already knew there was a mislynch, but I tried my best, but you are right he made sure there was a lynch, but he made sure to focus on those two and didnt let it drift away, if he is scum he knows it is a town town bandwagon it doesnt matter he ensures a lynch as long as he ensures it on one of them, which is what he did. Again, Onegu hammering the point that I was holding the town hostage on a town/town lynch when in reality, I tried to get a 3rd party lynch going once we had the votes for it. Umasi and StiM actually put the axe to my idea of moving off the two candidates. And as we know... StiM is actually Gotard... First point. It is unreasonable as there is no way you can know or guess what is going on im scum qt unless you are scum. And really you are looking at me to confirm I am town? It's unreasonable to speculate how my enemies are acting? Isn't that the point of the game? Second point. No no its not, if someone has different reads then you when the information is still limited isnt in any way scummy or reason for suspicion. Also I was wrong on the second part, you post a little bit on the "right way to scumhunt" which is null not scummy We disagree about that. I'm pretty confident in my ability to read town, and if someone thinks my top town reads are scum, that gets my attention. Third Point. You might be correct I could be biased here. Fourth Point. No you didnt, you say one time very close to deadline where it would be to dangerous to get 7 vote switchs and risk a mislynch. And you didnt even offer a case on him. Fifth Point. Again you never make a case, and earlier you make sure when you recruit to get people who are currently ok with the 2 wagons so why would they switch. You're just repeating yourself here, but I won't do the same. Answers in green.
You dont say simalar sorry, but you do say it will be not as impressive. It just seem like you posts feel like you only wrote one opener that you would post no matter you rolled scum or town.
2. He wasnt under pressure at the time the wagons were set on me and umasi, stim randomly pops in votes him self makeing umasi jump on him ending in a xzavier mislynch.
3. You are willing to assume scum are competent, but town are not.
4. Depends sometimes town are unhealthy to town.
5. No matter how early if someone thinks different it isnt a scum tell.
6. So you admit you didnt try to get a 3rd wagon lynch you just floated a idea close to the deadline that would never go through.
7. We have talked about enough, not hindsight because you floated the idea to have on D2. Dont know why people didnt speak up D1.
8. Specualate what they are doing sure, speculateing on whats going on in scum qt no.
9. Sigh. So you think I am scum because I dont agree with you?
10. Ok
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EPT
