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On July 03 2013 20:35 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 20:29 Lazermonkey wrote:On July 03 2013 18:21 marvellosity wrote:On July 03 2013 10:15 gumshoe wrote:
As fun as it is exchanging insults with Marv, I think today should focus on Fuba(last to claim, who has to essentially claim survivor, miller or unknown, or he has to fight it out with a claimee) and the blues. As I've already mentioned Virax is blue or we dont know anything about this game XD WOS is uber suspicious Lazer is null, and his alignment might really depend on what Marv is(on the one hand he claimed first as blue, which is uber risky, and they're hasn't been a counter, but if they're is no miller and Marv is his buddy then it might have been a safe claim). I'm biased about Gumshoe.
Vivak is virtually guaranteed vet. Please offer your thoughts on me WOS Lazer and Fuba. I think us 4 should be the candidates for todays lynch. Were much better picks than the great big ball of chaotic uncertainty that is Marv
Marv how do you feel about Lynching WOS or Fuba? As I was lying in bed last night feeling pretty stoned and trying not to think about mafia, I decided that WoS has to die. I still feel the same today sober. One reason only: WoS claimed to shoot me last night. Now, shooting me is an exceptionally dull, stupid play. Thus, I am left with the choice: is WoS really really terrible at this game, or is he scum? I don't think (I don't hope) he's terrible.
P.S. for all you people saying Vivax wouldn't fakeclaim/waste a hit - he's twice shot his own team-mate as mafia. Just sayin' like. ##Vote: WaveofShadow You don't seem to be even close to 101% sure that WoS is scum here. So why do you disagree? Sure enough. He's the best lynch for reasons I already explained. Even then, if we wait untill night, we will get much more info from it. If he is lying then scum will have to shoot suboptimally and if he is town, scum will then have to decide to either hold a shot or just accept the fact that he is 100% confirmed town once there is 3 shots. And they can't roleblock him, because then I'll get to check someone. And if they shoot both of us, then congratz, you've just lost both of your most suspicious townies right away!
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 03 2013 20:47 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 20:35 marvellosity wrote:On July 03 2013 20:29 Lazermonkey wrote:On July 03 2013 18:21 marvellosity wrote:On July 03 2013 10:15 gumshoe wrote:
As fun as it is exchanging insults with Marv, I think today should focus on Fuba(last to claim, who has to essentially claim survivor, miller or unknown, or he has to fight it out with a claimee) and the blues. As I've already mentioned Virax is blue or we dont know anything about this game XD WOS is uber suspicious Lazer is null, and his alignment might really depend on what Marv is(on the one hand he claimed first as blue, which is uber risky, and they're hasn't been a counter, but if they're is no miller and Marv is his buddy then it might have been a safe claim). I'm biased about Gumshoe.
Vivak is virtually guaranteed vet. Please offer your thoughts on me WOS Lazer and Fuba. I think us 4 should be the candidates for todays lynch. Were much better picks than the great big ball of chaotic uncertainty that is Marv
Marv how do you feel about Lynching WOS or Fuba? As I was lying in bed last night feeling pretty stoned and trying not to think about mafia, I decided that WoS has to die. I still feel the same today sober. One reason only: WoS claimed to shoot me last night. Now, shooting me is an exceptionally dull, stupid play. Thus, I am left with the choice: is WoS really really terrible at this game, or is he scum? I don't think (I don't hope) he's terrible.
P.S. for all you people saying Vivax wouldn't fakeclaim/waste a hit - he's twice shot his own team-mate as mafia. Just sayin' like. ##Vote: WaveofShadow You don't seem to be even close to 101% sure that WoS is scum here. So why do you disagree? Sure enough. He's the best lynch for reasons I already explained. Even then, if we wait untill night, we will get much more info from it. If he is lying then scum will have to shoot suboptimally and if he is town, scum will then have to decide to either hold a shot or just accept the fact that he is 100% confirmed town once there is 3 shots. And they can't roleblock him, because then I'll get to check someone. And if they shoot both of us, then congratz, you've just lost both of your most suspicious townies right away!
You're basically saying here that we shouldn't lynch into the 2 most suspicious people (? your words) and wait until tomorrow. I don't really buy that line of thinking.
If we're running on the assumption that you're both town, then even with one KP (never mind 2) they could just kill you and 'roleblock' WoS, and we're no further forwards in actually learning anything about him. Like, who else are they going to use their roleblock on? There's no roles left to roleblock.
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On July 03 2013 20:52 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 20:47 Lazermonkey wrote:On July 03 2013 20:35 marvellosity wrote:On July 03 2013 20:29 Lazermonkey wrote:On July 03 2013 18:21 marvellosity wrote:On July 03 2013 10:15 gumshoe wrote:
As fun as it is exchanging insults with Marv, I think today should focus on Fuba(last to claim, who has to essentially claim survivor, miller or unknown, or he has to fight it out with a claimee) and the blues. As I've already mentioned Virax is blue or we dont know anything about this game XD WOS is uber suspicious Lazer is null, and his alignment might really depend on what Marv is(on the one hand he claimed first as blue, which is uber risky, and they're hasn't been a counter, but if they're is no miller and Marv is his buddy then it might have been a safe claim). I'm biased about Gumshoe.
Vivak is virtually guaranteed vet. Please offer your thoughts on me WOS Lazer and Fuba. I think us 4 should be the candidates for todays lynch. Were much better picks than the great big ball of chaotic uncertainty that is Marv
Marv how do you feel about Lynching WOS or Fuba? As I was lying in bed last night feeling pretty stoned and trying not to think about mafia, I decided that WoS has to die. I still feel the same today sober. One reason only: WoS claimed to shoot me last night. Now, shooting me is an exceptionally dull, stupid play. Thus, I am left with the choice: is WoS really really terrible at this game, or is he scum? I don't think (I don't hope) he's terrible.
P.S. for all you people saying Vivax wouldn't fakeclaim/waste a hit - he's twice shot his own team-mate as mafia. Just sayin' like. ##Vote: WaveofShadow You don't seem to be even close to 101% sure that WoS is scum here. So why do you disagree? Sure enough. He's the best lynch for reasons I already explained. Even then, if we wait untill night, we will get much more info from it. If he is lying then scum will have to shoot suboptimally and if he is town, scum will then have to decide to either hold a shot or just accept the fact that he is 100% confirmed town once there is 3 shots. And they can't roleblock him, because then I'll get to check someone. And if they shoot both of us, then congratz, you've just lost both of your most suspicious townies right away! You're basically saying here that we shouldn't lynch into the 2 most suspicious people (? your words) and wait until tomorrow. I don't really buy that line of thinking. If we're running on the assumption that you're both town, then even with one KP (never mind 2) they could just kill you and 'roleblock' WoS, and we're no further forwards in actually learning anything about him. Like, who else are they going to use their roleblock on? There's no roles left to roleblock. Yep, that's what I am saying. Obviously, who is most suspicious is up to everyone and maybe I'm not the second most susupicious person according to everyone but you get what I am saying.
Well, sure it will not help your read on WoS but if they kill me that's clearly a suboptimal shot, don't you think? I'm nowhere the strongest player left in the game. And at that point you'll have even more evidence to decide what WoS alignment really is.
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None of that is an argument for not lynching the scummiest player today.
Whatever, can't really be bothered to argue about it.
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You know what, I'm just stupid. Didn't realize that killing scum today would very likely increase the amount of misslycnhes we have by 1. So you are correct. Though the sweetest thing would be to kill a scum that isn't WoS because if we are wrong about WoS he will be able to prove that with night actions whereas others cannot.
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Lazer, can you tell me what you find scummy about those people outside or fuba or point me to previous arguments you still find strong?
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Well, you have at it with fuba if you like.
I've semi-checked out of this game already because there's a bunch of townies (with presumably a mafia or 2 sprinkled in) who seem to genuinely believe I'd fakeclaim miller in this setup, despite how outright retarded it is as a play. If that's the level of logic people are (not) using, then there's already zero hope.
It's beating a dead horse but with 8/9 townies and 12 townie roles, claiming miller is just insanity. And apart from that, the fact that there IS actually a miller with how the setup is presented is very high indeed. Lo and behold, it is me. For there not to be a miller, iGrok would have handpicked the roles to exclude the miller, or if it's RNG then the % chance there ISN'T a town miller is monumentally low (8 or 9 RNG attempts to get miller which is TWO of the 12 spots).
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Similarly for you marv, who do you think are the other two scum?
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Why would I guess at an entire scumteam when not one of them has flipped yet??
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On July 03 2013 21:20 Vivax wrote:
Lazer, can you tell me what you find scummy about those people outside or fuba or point me to previous arguments you still find strong? Well, Oats and stutters I haven't really looked much into yet. It's more that their claim doesn't really prove them to be town in any shape or form IMO. Solstice has been very lurky and didn't care for shit about the lynch D1 makes me suspicious of him. My initial impression from stutters was that he didn't really have any thoughts of his own but just sheeped whatever was going on at the moment but actually, reading through again, stutters is probably not scum if WoS is because WoS has been up his ass literally all game. And WoS is more likely scum than him I'd say.
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The above was @ marv
On July 03 2013 21:33 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 21:20 Vivax wrote:
Lazer, can you tell me what you find scummy about those people outside or fuba or point me to previous arguments you still find strong? Well, Oats and stutters I haven't really looked much into yet. It's more that their claim doesn't really prove them to be town in any shape or form IMO. Solstice has been very lurky and didn't care for shit about the lynch D1 makes me suspicious of him. My initial impression from stutters was that he didn't really have any thoughts of his own but just sheeped whatever was going on at the moment but actually, reading through again, stutters is probably not scum if WoS is because WoS has been up his ass literally all game. And WoS is more likely scum than him I'd say.
What makes you think that WoS is scum?
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Definitely scum for playing the game in a fashion that isn't retarded? Sorry Vivax, that still don't fly.
Just gonna quote this at people calling me scum and failing to use even rudimentary logic.
On July 03 2013 21:22 marvellosity wrote:
I've semi-checked out of this game already because there's a bunch of townies (with presumably a mafia or 2 sprinkled in) who seem to genuinely believe I'd fakeclaim miller in this setup, despite how outright retarded it is as a play. If that's the level of logic people are (not) using, then there's already zero hope.
It's beating a dead horse but with 8/9 townies and 12 townie roles, claiming miller is just insanity. And apart from that, the fact that there IS actually a miller with how the setup is presented is very high indeed. Lo and behold, it is me. For there not to be a miller, iGrok would have handpicked the roles to exclude the miller, or if it's RNG then the % chance there ISN'T a town miller is monumentally low (8 or 9 RNG attempts to get miller which is TWO of the 12 spots).
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On July 03 2013 21:36 Vivax wrote:The above was @ marv Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 21:33 Lazermonkey wrote:On July 03 2013 21:20 Vivax wrote:
Lazer, can you tell me what you find scummy about those people outside or fuba or point me to previous arguments you still find strong? Well, Oats and stutters I haven't really looked much into yet. It's more that their claim doesn't really prove them to be town in any shape or form IMO. Solstice has been very lurky and didn't care for shit about the lynch D1 makes me suspicious of him. My initial impression from stutters was that he didn't really have any thoughts of his own but just sheeped whatever was going on at the moment but actually, reading through again, stutters is probably not scum if WoS is because WoS has been up his ass literally all game. And WoS is more likely scum than him I'd say. What makes you think that WoS is scum? His reads are quite bad I'd say and he didn't really care at all about the D1 lynch for shit, thogh I guess you could argue he was busy with this Canada day shizzle. It's mostly based on the fact that the claim timing is really wierd (wierd=scummy for the record). And I don't think there are 4 blue roles in this game.
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Not totally caught up but I see fuba claimed 3rd party. Few things first:
- Doesn't that pretty much mean he's extremely unlikely to win? If I'm 3rd party I think I'd just counter the scummiest looking dude and take my chances.
- Why not jail someone? Especially gumshoe who claimed blue and could potentially vig kill him? Saying that he figured vig would shoot lazr or marv seems like a poor reason to not use ur ability.
- I find it way too coincidental that he's the last claim and he happens to have the only non-red role left in the game. That means for him to be telling the truth, every scummy got lucky and picked a role not already in the game.
Gonna reread stuff but I doubt I'll see anything that would make me want to vote anywhere else.
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Say hi to the list with the order of claims
• Lt. Aldo Raine - American Veteran Vivax 7
• Hans Landa - German Survivor Jailkeeper Fuba 12
• Sgt. Donny Donowitz - American Vigi WoS 11
• Sgt. Hugo Stiglitz - German Miller Marv 1
• Cpl. Wilhelm Wicki - American Parity C Lazer 3
• Pfc. Smithson Utivich - American Townie Rayn Dead- 6
• Pfc. Omar Ulmer - American Townie Stutters 9
• Pierre LaPadite - French Townie S0lstice 8
• Pfc. Hirschberg - American Townie Vayne Dead - 4
• Pfc. Andy Kagan - American Townie Oats 10
• Pfc. Michael Zimmerman - American Tow JJ 2
• Shoshanna - French Vengeful Townie Gumshoe 5
As we see, WoS HAD to claim Vigi, there was literally no other role he could have taken, and given that the order of this mass claim was shit cause we didn't let fuba and WoS claim first, it gave him an out.
This is how I currently think the game looks like:
Scum has 3 goons.
No cop
No miller
No vigi.
Just me, the veteran, and a vengeful townie.
Knowing that scum has no Hitler, marv decided that a cop was unlikely, and as I pointed out multiple times, miller claim isn't as risky as he's trying to put it. He fakeclaimed in a game facing odds of 40 % to be counterclaimed, hence we know he doesn't mind risks as scum like he tries to tell us in this game.
Lazer claimed cop 4 minutes before the presumed deadline. He was afraid of getting counterclaimed and hence did it only when there was little time left, so any counterclaim couldn't have the time to processed properly. Scum would also have known at this point that there was no miller, hence some more odds in their favour.
WoS claimed the only thing left, leaving us with all blues in the game, which is highly improbable. I feel gumshoe's claim was legit cause of timing (he didn't fear getting cc'd) and cause I didn't feel he was mostly townie in general, except I found him odd at one point for proposing a scum team theory I didn't share and found unlikely.
This is obviously something that looks almost paranoid, 3 scum with 3 fakeclaims. But I'm confident that lynching marv ALL of their play will fall apart, cause I'm confident that he won't flip miller, making Lazer's cop claim quite more suspicious, and WoS claim is suspicious in itself. The guy claims to have shot marv, I have yet to see him reflecting that intention during N1.
There is absolutely NOTHING in his filter that points towards him wanting to shoot marv.
Just follow me, lynch marv, and win the game. I already delayed scum victory by being so supertownie that scum shot me. You owe me this much.
These guys aren't afraid of bussing each other, they know the massclaim puts them into a bad spot, and only looking at their pla
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On July 03 2013 21:59 Vivax wrote:
Say hi to the list with the order of claims
• Lt. Aldo Raine - American Veteran Vivax 7
• Hans Landa - German Survivor Jailkeeper Fuba 12
• Sgt. Donny Donowitz - American Vigi WoS 11
• Sgt. Hugo Stiglitz - German Miller Marv 1
• Cpl. Wilhelm Wicki - American Parity C Lazer 3
• Pfc. Smithson Utivich - American Townie Rayn Dead- 6
• Pfc. Omar Ulmer - American Townie Stutters 9
• Pierre LaPadite - French Townie S0lstice 8
• Pfc. Hirschberg - American Townie Vayne Dead - 4
• Pfc. Andy Kagan - American Townie Oats 10
• Pfc. Michael Zimmerman - American Tow JJ 2
• Shoshanna - French Vengeful Townie Gumshoe 5
As we see, WoS HAD to claim Vigi, there was literally no other role he could have taken, and given that the order of this mass claim was shit cause we didn't let fuba and WoS claim first, it gave him an out.
This is how I currently think the game looks like:
Scum has 3 goons.
No cop
No miller
No vigi.
Just me, the veteran, and a vengeful townie.
Knowing that scum has no Hitler, marv decided that a cop was unlikely, and as I pointed out multiple times, miller claim isn't as risky as he's trying to put it. He fakeclaimed in a game facing odds of 40 % to be counterclaimed, hence we know he doesn't mind risks as scum like he tries to tell us in this game.
Lazer claimed cop 4 minutes before the presumed deadline. He was afraid of getting counterclaimed and hence did it only when there was little time left, so any counterclaim couldn't have the time to processed properly. Scum would also have known at this point that there was no miller, hence some more odds in their favour.
WoS claimed the only thing left, leaving us with all blues in the game, which is highly improbable. I feel gumshoe's claim was legit cause of timing (he didn't fear getting cc'd) and cause I didn't feel he was mostly townie in general, except I found him odd at one point for proposing a scum team theory I didn't share and found unlikely.
This is obviously something that looks almost paranoid, 3 scum with 3 fakeclaims. But I'm confident that lynching marv ALL of their play will fall apart, cause I'm confident that he won't flip miller, making Lazer's cop claim quite more suspicious, and WoS claim is suspicious in itself. The guy claims to have shot marv, I have yet to see him reflecting that intention during N1.
There is absolutely NOTHING in his filter that points towards him wanting to shoot marv.
Just follow me, lynch marv, and win the game. I already delayed scum victory by being so supertownie that scum shot me. You owe me this much.
These guys aren't afraid of bussing each other, they know the massclaim puts them into a bad spot, and only looking at their pla
On July 03 2013 21:22 marvellosity wrote:
I've semi-checked out of this game already because there's a bunch of townies (with presumably a mafia or 2 sprinkled in) who seem to genuinely believe I'd fakeclaim miller in this setup, despite how outright retarded it is as a play. If that's the level of logic people are (not) using, then there's already zero hope.
It's beating a dead horse but with 8/9 townies and 12 townie roles, claiming miller is just insanity. And apart from that, the fact that there IS actually a miller with how the setup is presented is very high indeed. Lo and behold, it is me. For there not to be a miller, iGrok would have handpicked the roles to exclude the miller, or if it's RNG then the % chance there ISN'T a town miller is monumentally low (8 or 9 RNG attempts to get miller which is TWO of the 12 spots).
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and cause I didn't feel he was mostly townie in general
Cause I didn't feel he was scummy in general. A reformulation gone bad ^^
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Check out marv.
You care more than you try to make it look like if you keep trying to disrupt me.
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oh god Vivax.
why so much speculation that links 3 players.
ill post more when I get home.
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EPT
