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Lol....Rayn.
If you actually pulled this move and you are town I gotta give you some credit. That's some sneaky shit and I have a great deal of respect for this if you're making a play. Most people prefer to play straight and I haven't seen a fake play like this since my first game on the site.
Some of your conclusions are pretty solid. I'd vote Maju and I want to take a good look an Austin now especially since he was the main proponent of the ON lych which everyone seems to for some reason) agree was completely town-motivated. Since I believe DI to be scum I don't think that's the case.
I'm not sure about jampi because he's a newbie, and it's possible he simply may not have thought about silent nuke not firing when you say it out loud. That being said I remember noticing him talking about that and thinking wtf. I will keep my eye on him.
Biggest problem I find is Ace. A lot of the points he has brought up regarding you strike true with me. I am certainly not convinced he is scum and I believe it is more likely that you are scum than he is, though I also believe it is very possible you are both town. I'd like to see what he makes of your 'big play' and his reaction to it.
I won't be doing any major posting till my usual time later, probably after lynch but I will try to get a list of my reads before deadline just in case I'm shot (doubt it).
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On July 10 2013 03:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
To all you idiots who didn't want to lynch dandel yesterday.
Look at what he's done since and justify your decision.
This.
Anyone who knows DI at all and how he plays, INCLUDING THE SHIT FROM THE SCUM QT I LINKED, should have absolutely ZERO reason to think DI is town at this point.
ZERO.
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On July 10 2013 03:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
To all you idiots who didn't want to lynch dandel yesterday.
Look at what he's done since and justify your decision.
I have a feeling you see where the colonel was coming from...
Yeah, he does matter. Sorry about the Russian, folks.
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Ace's points against me are total bullshit and it all hangs on that i actually launched the nuke. There is no way i would have claimed that nuke if i was scum, regardless of if i launched it or not. There is no benefit and Ace is not even wanting to look the matter from that point-.
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I also agree with Meapak that Dandel might be scum. Definitely up for D2 lynch.
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Just so I understand this.
Scum, the people who want town to lose and want townies to die, were supposed to do the following:
(1) Shoot a nuke at MZ
(2) See you claim their nuke in thread
(3) Be confused/afraid
On July 10 2013 03:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:
This is my plan:
I claim that i nuked Meapak to throw mafia off their game. Seriously, think about it. You are mafia and some townie claims a nuke you have launched. Would it throw you off? You need to comment on the matter somehow, as by reading my filter there is an obvious lie, just that you know EXACTLY where the lie is (in "i nuked MZ"). Mafia gets confused.
...
What i was looking was behaviour that does not fall into any category i described before. Think about this from mafia pov. You don't know what i am up to. I have obviously fakeclaimed to shot a nuke. I am asking you questions. What am i after? I obviously have some sort of a plan, what do you need to answer? Another behaviour is to straight up say "lol you can't possibly have launched that nuke".
That was the plan? The plan is to lie to thread, to either lie about nuking someone or lie about not having nukes, and then to expect mafia, who are again, by the way, the people who want townies dead, to get confused or afraid?
I think that if this was actually your plan then...I dunno, respect. It's delightfully ridiculous. But mafia, as noted above, really likes killing townies. And townies really like lynching liars/people who make no sense. Therefore mafia really likes it when townies lie, because that means they can get mislynches. A mafia team that doesn't love making townies really want to lynch townies is...not a winning mafia team.
So no, I didn't chime in with how this didn't make any sense, wondering why you'd want chez nuked and nuke MZ. Other people did. I didn't chime in with why would you lie, because other people did. I didn't chime in with why claim the nuke if you're lying mafia, therefore, aren't you some kind of lying town, because other people did.
Moreover, I actually find suspicious the people that came out of the woodwork JUST to talk about you and the nuke. Ace has been more or less townie to me, but spending pages and pages arguing with people for little reason actually gives me the impression that he's happy to post and muck up the thread. Jampidampi looks odd for me because he gets involved in very, very little on D1, and now half of his filter is posts about you and your claim. Your claim is easy pickings for mafia to get active, to fill filter either accusing someone of being mafia for lying (ezpz townie thing to do) or fill filter about why your lying doesn't make sense (ezpz thing to do).
Right? It's an easy topic of discussion that isn't really scumhunting, isn't really moving things forward. You just give your thoughts, recycle them, argue about them, but the whole thing is meaningless and it's just a great opportunity to LOOK active.
Besides the whole lie as town to get somewhere thing, which I think should be used very, very sparingly if at all, I think your conclusions are ... wrong. I disagree that mafia gets confused by this. I think it presents a strong opportunity for scum to get active in the thread.
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Lying is not necessarily bad. I lie more as town than i do as mafia.
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On July 10 2013 04:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Lying is not necessarily bad. I lie more as town than i do as mafia.
Sure. Lying is not necessarily bad. But it's god awful to be caught in a lie. I really wish there had been some nukes launched at multiple people this night.
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On July 09 2013 22:11 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 21:55 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 21:43 Xatalos wrote:On July 09 2013 21:29 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 21:25 Xatalos wrote:On July 09 2013 21:19 Ace wrote:
How is it wrong? Be objective here.
There was a concerted effort to turn around the DI lynch. austincc posts a case on ON. Immediately a band wagon forms. DI defends himself and disappears from the thread. ON defends himself, role claims, and still gets lynched. There are no votes moving off of ON at this time. He flips Town.
MZ figures that rayne must be lying after rayne claims to have nuked him. This is where the doubt on rayne comes from.
I show up and I'm already looking at how the lynch played out. I already note how its going down. I get to MZ's post about rayne, who was instrumental to turning around the DI lynch.
Why would I call out anyone else but rayne? Logically, think about this. I think you seriously are lost because if you can't tell what my opinion on rayne is right now this is pointless. So you believe rayn is lying about his "big play"? Do you mean he's scum and launched the nuke after all? If you believe him on that point (which seems a pretty obvious thing to do IMO), you have no other decent reason to continue. He was just one of many who helped changing the lynch around, and unless DI flips red, it doesn't even prove anything at all. Yes. I believe rayne is scum not only for nuking MZ, but the DI lynch. I'm taking them both together. When geript asked me earlier about why I didn't include him as a suspect this was the same reasoning. Don't think I'm ignoring the entire wagon, I'm just only speaking on rayne right now because it makes no sense to put suspicion on everyone. It won't accomplish anything right now. Explain why: 1) scum rayn would stealth nuke Meapak (instead of his eternal enemy Chezinu), base his townread on Meapak (at least partly) on his own lie, then be happy to redirect the nuke to NG 2) reveal all this quite a bit later with absolutely zero reason to do that and put himself under pressure 3) gather reactions without caring for his own safety and then reveal this plan No matter how I look at it, I see no reason for scum rayn to do all this. 1.) why wouldn't he stealth nuke someone that is probably Town? durr? If he and Chezinu are scum buddies together then doesn't it make sense for him not to nuke him? If rayne's nukes can only be activated by stealth then this is moot as he would never even do so. If you honestly believe rayne has the capability to nuke another player and is Town - then why not nuke Chezinu? 2.) I don't think he actually thought it through well enough or he really believed he could get away with it. Again, MZ was the one who called him out on this. Unless you have a problem with MZ's post, then I don't see why you are over thinking this. Notice that even after he claimed he wasn't under any pressure. So he could very well have been correct in thinking he was safe on it. 3.) I don't understand where this is going. If you are assuming that only Town players will act bold you are acting under a false premise. Here's my thing: Why is the DI/ON lynch not a major deal to you? That was a last minute wagon flip that resulted in a townie lynch. The guy who was going to be lynched got away with a scant post in his defense and disappeared. ON put up a defense and votes weren't moved off of him. You don't see a problem here? I agree with geript's reasoning that the DI wagon went too smoothly without disagreement (only geript opposed it until austinmcc finally made his case, and DI had like 10+ votes at that point?). That means DI is probably town. If that is true, then there's literally zero reason for scum rayn to change the lynch from town to town. Even if DI were scum, you have zero reason to pursue rayn until 1) DI has flipped red and 2) you explain why rayn is more scummy for that than me or austin who were more strongly pursuing ON. It's just senseless all around. 1) I do not believe rayn has the capacity to launch a nuke. In that case, he would have surely launched it at Chezinu regardless of his alignnment (even as scum it would be stupid to launch at someone else and then claim a bit later). 2) Scum do not act rashly or carelessly, they are careful and serious. This is everything but careful and very risky for little if any gain (as scum). See the point? 3) See above.
"DI is town because no one opposed his lynch until people started opposing it"
Durr no
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On July 10 2013 04:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Lying is not necessarily bad. I lie more as town than i do as mafia. That's why at no point did I say it's bad. I even believe it's useful as town, but only very, very sparingly, and the more people that lie, the more often they lie, the less useful it is.
I don't care about the whole lying thing.
What I care about is the conclusions you draw. You think that mafia should be confused/afraid of your claim, when I believe that mafia would love the opportunity to jump on someone who has lied in thread, call them out, call for their lynch. You think that mafia would avoid discussing your claim, when I think that it's fertile grounds for mafia to get active about something.
"Why did rayn lie/is rayn lying/is rayn scum/what is going on" is just another topic to talk about that isn't QUITE scumhunting. It's slightly closer to scumhunting than setup talk, balance talk, and that jazz, but it's still fluff discussion that doesn't really get towards finding a scumteam. You had some motivation to do what you did, you had some post you were waiting to reveal, until that point it's all kind of useless chatter that just serves to make people APPEAR useful.
Again, the reaction that I would find scummy is not the people who do nothing with your claim, but people who fill their filter with nothing except talk about your claim (jampidampi) or people who jump on you as scummy despite doing little other scumhunting (haven't gone back to look at this) or ... Ace, because he knows better and generally stays out of threads.
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On July 09 2013 22:18 VayneAuthority wrote:
We should probably give this rayn thing a rest for a bit as its killing discussion before the night post. People that have a chance to die should really throw out some reads/cases before they are gone.
I really need people's opinions on these three men, as I think they are all scum.
gumshoe, ghost, onegu
They don't have time to post anything meaningful in the thread but are able to show up last second and ninjavote for ON? Especially gumshoe who I know is much more capable than this.
VA jumping in the middle of a meaningful interesting discussion to tell everyone to stop it and spout some nonsense about random lurkers. He scum yo
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I cant believe how long this rayn thing has gone on. If I didn't know better its just scum talking to each other and completely shutting down all discussion but that is not the correct answer.
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In scientific terms, and I think snb will back me up:
You discombobulated the thread.
Scum love discombobulated threads, and prolonging discombobulation.
Therefore, people who didn't discombobulate aren't more likely to be scum than before (IMO), and people who reveled in the discombobulation are.
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On July 10 2013 04:14 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 22:18 VayneAuthority wrote:
We should probably give this rayn thing a rest for a bit as its killing discussion before the night post. People that have a chance to die should really throw out some reads/cases before they are gone.
I really need people's opinions on these three men, as I think they are all scum.
gumshoe, ghost, onegu
They don't have time to post anything meaningful in the thread but are able to show up last second and ninjavote for ON? Especially gumshoe who I know is much more capable than this. VA jumping in the middle of a meaningful interesting discussion to tell everyone to stop it and spout some nonsense about random lurkers. He scum yo
it isn't meaningful or interesting. They aren't random lurkers, they are ones that shifted their vote ON last second without talking in the thread or anything.
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On July 09 2013 22:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.
Here's my new thought process.
Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.
stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?
Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.
rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.
If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum? You can't possibly be this stupid. If the nuke was from a townie they would have CC'd me. That was another reason fopr fakeclaiming the nuke. It's sure from scum now.
This is actually stupid as fuck.
Not sure about the rest of the plan but what was your goal? To make the town secret dayvig counterclaim you so you could get one or both of you lynched?
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TO THOSE WHO ARE UNINVOLVED/HAVING TROUBLE KEEPING UP, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DO THE FOLLOWING:- Choose 3-5 pages of the thread.
- Read those pages
- Pick out the towniest or scummiest post on that page
- Specify WHY you think it's townier or scummier than all the rest
- Type that into a post and post it
- If possible, rinse and repeat (or get otherwise involved)
This thread is large. There are lots of posts. But assuming we don't blow goats, this game will come down to your ability to read people in the thread and the thread's ability to read you (you = anyone who isn't super duper involved). Active townies will get NKed. Active scum will hopefully slip up. Some other scum/town will become apparent because of voting/roles/whatever.
But then we will hit lategame and will have a few people that town couldn't read well enough to really lynch, and scum didn't find threatening enough to NK. The more you can contribute to the thread, even in weird sideways ways, the better people can read you as we approach that point and the better lategame townies will be able to read lategame folks.
Please don't want until endgame to get involved or try and read the thread. You simply won't be able to. Please find some odd way to get involved now.
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Okay so here's my take on the gambit.
I'm inclined to believe rayne is telling the truth and got lucky as fuck that no townie counterclaimed him. Given his previous posts there was no way he claims the nuke and does not get lynched.
I'm not sure about Ryan's attempts to draw townreads on some of the people he does though, because questioning "dude wtf" or "you are a liar and/or retard" are both easy for either alignment to do.
I agree that Austin's reaction looks pretty bad though, regarding the "not talking about the claim" thing. Iirc his argument last page was something like "other people were talking about it already so why would I need to to" but that's not how mafia works bro you have to talk about the talk so people can read what you say.
Also Austin regarding your stuff this page about how scum would want to jump on a liar for lying and get a townie lynched, the thing is that the scum can't attack the lying townie for lying because the only way they would know he was lying is because they are scum, that argument absolutely doesn't work.
However, I disagree with Ryan that axe is scum. First, his filter from day 1 gives me a townie feeling and god knows I never get that from ace. More specifically, he doesn't seem to be pushing a specific scum agenda like I know he does as scum. Regarding the recent stuff that Ryan is basing his attack on, I think if ace was scum he would just pull his classic "fuck off you can't get me lunched" defense rather than actually engage here. It is weird that he still says rayne launched the nuke despite the evidence jampidampi collected but I think that might be more of a case of ace not liking to be wrong。
Other stuff: I think va is scum, most of my few posts have mentioned it and well see where that goes tomorrow.
Dandelion I also think is scum. He just obviously doesn't give a shit; he could post now even if he was following his fake "not posting at day" policy, plus reading the on switch made me feel like if di was town then a last minute switch with so many people wouldn't have gotten anywhere.
Also I still wonder About oatsmaster and the nuke deflection, that makes me suspicious of him so ill look into his filter more tmo possibly. Especially if if looks like we aren't gonna lynch vane or di.
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+ Show Spoiler +On July 10 2013 04:30 austinmcc wrote:TO THOSE WHO ARE UNINVOLVED/HAVING TROUBLE KEEPING UP, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DO THE FOLLOWING:- Choose 3-5 pages of the thread.
- Read those pages
- Pick out the towniest or scummiest post on that page
- Specify WHY you think it's townier or scummier than all the rest
- Type that into a post and post it
- If possible, rinse and repeat (or get otherwise involved)
This thread is large. There are lots of posts. But assuming we don't blow goats, this game will come down to your ability to read people in the thread and the thread's ability to read you (you = anyone who isn't super duper involved). Active townies will get NKed. Active scum will hopefully slip up. Some other scum/town will become apparent because of voting/roles/whatever. But then we will hit lategame and will have a few people that town couldn't read well enough to really lynch, and scum didn't find threatening enough to NK. The more you can contribute to the thread, even in weird sideways ways, the better people can read you as we approach that point and the better lategame townies will be able to read lategame folks. Please don't want until endgame to get involved or try and read the thread. You simply won't be able to. Please find some odd way to get involved now.
You are talking to lurkers or everyone? I can follow the thread from my phone. But yes it's a big one!
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Austin what do you think about vayne, if you're town I want to know your read and of you're scum I want to be able to do connection analysis
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On July 10 2013 04:40 strongandbig wrote:
Also Austin regarding your stuff this page about how scum would want to jump on a liar for lying and get a townie lynched, the thing is that the scum can't attack the lying townie for lying because the only way they would know he was lying is because they are scum, that argument absolutely doesn't work.
No. He said "I have no nukes, someone nuke Chez" and then "I nuked MZ."
The lie isn't that he says he nuked MZ when he probably didn't, the lie is connecting his statements about wanting chez nuked towards the start of D1 for nuking xatalos with his later claiming a nuke and using it on MZ.
It's a lie that everyone could see, because the posts in the thread were entirely incompatible.
One sec on VA.
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EPT
