EPT[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia - Page 6
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/jW8VAJI.png) possible error: Vayne may be switched with SnB. Somewhat less likely because SnB is voting austin atm and it seems unlikely that there's been *that* much bussing this game, but hey it seems to have been working so far so who knows? I feel pretty confident in these reads though. Best lynching order: Maju->Austin->Stutters->Vayne/SnB Reasons: I won't lie, heavily influenced by Xatalos' post, but beyond that... Austin's "defense" to xatalos isn't really a defense at all...It's reads like him saying "yup, that's absolutely correct, but I'm still not scum". He didn't really...have a defense? It really really didn't seem like it to me. His "advanced knowledge", as ace pointed out, is still disconcerting to me. Also, everything on Xatalos' post. Day 2 lynch was exactly like Day 1 lynch. Just that makes me feel like MajuGarzett is definitely scum. Since starting to be the popular vote to kill, he has done nothing. It's like he knows hes going to die as scum and doesn't want to give town any more information. He could be pretty busy as a townie...but I think thats very very unlikely at this point. Stutters: He's faking his role PM, pretty obviously to me. The PM he said he received says nothing about which types of nukes there are to fake (only that there are different types of nukes...), there's no indication of how to submit an action or when, etc. Additionally, Toy Store doesn't fit the theme of this game. It feels ridiculously fabricated, or he's leaving something out. Unless he shares his actual role PM and has a damned good reason on why he faked his role pm...twice... I can't see him being a townie. OH I just had a thought. Ace admitted to having a KP but wasn't killed at night, which makes 0 sense unless scum knows that the nuke was faked so it's possible that Stutters is a "Toy Store" or something along those lines, but isn't town aligned and didn't post a bunch of his role PM. VA & SnB: I'm a LOT less confident about these. I believe SnB may be a scum aligned Immune One. Sort of gut read. I don't like how he's been playing and it feels pretty scummy to me but I can't really put my finger on anything. VA: Basically what xata said, not much else to offer, but I don't like how he's pursuing Chezinu so much right now, and just assuming he's scum. I don't see how he could even have a gut read on chezinu, I can't read him at all...he's chezinu. This is also a gut read...not very confident. I think ONE of these is probably scum, but not both. | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
On July 14 2013 12:02 geript wrote: @Whoops, ace wasn't killed because he's either scum or they knew the nuke was fake. I'm leaning the latter which makes Stutters scum. Plus, as town "Toy factory" during D1 after the radiation nuke reveal stuff (after Xat's claim) he would be at 0 cost to claim and confirm. Instead he's convinced DI was scum for no reasoning and continues to be more worthless than a pine cone after you take a shit. yup that's exactly what I'm saying (the first part). and good point on the rest. + Show Spoiler + and yes sentinel...it is a shitty mspaint pic... I thought people might enjoy it  | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
On July 14 2013 13:42 VayneAuthority wrote: You are a Toy Store! You don't actually make real nukes but you're pretty good at making them look real. Once per cycle, you may choose a nuke type and a player. That player will be told he received a nuke of that kind. you guys are forgetting stutters claim. This completely contradicts that claim. One of Ace or Stutters is scum or both. Yup, this. Definitely Stutters, like I've been saying. It was such an obvious fake PM -.- I forgot for a second but yes this basically confirms Stutters is scum for me. Whether or not the nuke lands, the fact that it was launched contradicts Stutters claim. So, I say we lynch Stutters actually, and if the nuke lands, great, if not, we do it tomorrow. | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
On July 13 2013 00:08 Ace wrote: ##nuke MajuGarzett no you didn't? | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
Also, is "once per cycle" every day or every night or what? | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
So as far as I can see there's the following possibilities: + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + A: We lynch outside the situation, hit townie. Nuke on MG doesn't hit. On day 4, it's 11 townies to 4 scum at BEST. B: We lynch outside the situation, hit townie. Nuke on MG hits. He's scum. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST C: We lynch outside the situation, hit townie. Nuke on MG hits. He's townie. On day 4, it's 10 townies to 4 scum at BEST D: We lynch outside the situation, hit scum. Nuke on MG doesn't hit. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 3 scum, at BEST E: We lynch outside the situation, hit scum. Nuke on MG hits. He's scum. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 2 scum at BEST F: We lynch outside the situation, hit scum. Nuke on MG hits. He's townie. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST + Show Spoiler + G. We lynch MG. He's scum. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 3 scum at BEST H. We lynch MG. He's townie. On day 4, it's 11 townies to 4 scum at BEST + Show Spoiler + I: We lynch Stutters. He's town. Nuke doesn't land. On day 4, it's 11 townies to 4 scum at BEST J: We lynch Stutters. He's town. Nuke lands. MG is town. On day 4, it's 10 townies to 4 scum at BEST K: We lynch Stutters. He's town. Nuke lands. MG is scum. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST L: We lynch Stutters. He's scum. Nuke doesn't land. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 3 scum at BEST M: We lynch Stutters. He's scum. Nuke lands. MG is scum. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 2 scum at BEST N: We lynch stutters. He's scum. Nuke lands. MG is town. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST (assuming if we hit scum today we get rid of 1 KP, there is 5 total scum, and the rest are townie, and if we lynch MG we don't know whether or not the nuke would hit) Averaging the outcomes (if outcomes are equal---which they are obviously not, but just something to consider) Lynching outside the situation or lynching stutters: 11.833333 townies on day 4 with 3.16666 scum Lynching MG: 12 townies on day 4, 3.5 scum Lynching outside the situation therefore has more townies/scum on average, and is probably a better pick than lynching MG. Although I included lynching stutters as an option I don't think it's a good idea at all because it lends itself to REALLY bad situations imo. However I haven't taken into account that if the nuke doesn't hit then Stutters is probably town and if it does hit he's probably scum. Intuition tells me that lynching outside of the situation lends to better results if you take that into account. But back to the dilemma. Best possible scenario: Lynch outside of the situation, hit scum, nuke lands, MG flips scum. Worst possible scenario: Lynch outside of the situation, hit town, nuke lands, MG flips town. Most likely scenario IMO (sorry town but after 2 mislynches I have less faith): We lynch outside of the situation, hit town, nuke may or may not land. The problem I have is that if the nuke doesn't land we lose 3 townies for nothing in this situation, when we could have lynched a (relatively) confirmed scum. On the other hand, if we do decide to lynch MG, we get no information on Stutters from this at all. So I'm really torn. What does everyone else think? | ||
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