Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 20 2013 05:42 Ange777 wrote: I played my first Newbie Game with FirmTofu :D OH HEY! How's it going? I love you <3 Have you been playing regularly? I'm trying mafia again because it's summer now and I have bunches of time. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 04:44 geript wrote: The game will be starting tonight in [unparsable timestamp format] Could you update the op with the updated player list? Thanks! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I have never killed or assisted in killing ANYONE in my entire life. Thus, it would be presumptuous to accuse me of being a murderer or an accomplice to murder. Thank you for reading. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote: hey guys Analysis: Trying to appear friendly with an innocuous greeting. Seems to project an air of insecurity. Preliminary Conclusion: Scum On June 24 2013 11:01 StiMaDDict wrote: so it begins.. Analysis: Neutral statement of fact. Preliminary Conclusion: Need more information. On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone Analysis: Exudes power with strong capitalization techniques along with a greeting. Preliminary Conclusion: A leader with a powerful role. On June 24 2013 11:03 Xzavier wrote: Spicy <3 hello again. Analysis: Trying to establish a connection with a player that he has interacted with prior to this game. A metagaming, manipulative sort of move. Preliminary Conclusion: Scummy On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote: Why so scummy, Spicy? Analysis: First baseless accusation. As the old chinese proverb states, "He who smelt it, dealt it." Preliminary Conclusion: Scum Suggested Lynch: Chromatically | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 11:21 Xzavier wrote: jesus somebody went a long way to post alot of nothing xD Lighten up bud, I was trying to make some conversation and get things started. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 11:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town. Whoa, whoa, slow down there bud, the Nosy Neighbor should NOT be claiming right now. Have a look at the rolecard again. On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote: Alpha 5 -- Nosy Neighbour You visit a random person at night and do nothing, but can be tracked there and watched visiting. You are aware of this behaviour, but are not able to stop it or even control it. See that? The part where it says RANDOM? The dude can't pick who he visits, so there's no point in revealing him. He might be visiting someone who isn't mafia-killed, sure, but he could just as easily be one of the mafia roles that doesn't kill. I appreciate the sentiment, but your plan is ill-advised and short-sighted. You also are under the assumption that we have a tracker and that this tracker is going to reveal on day 2 to confirm the nosy neighbor as town. It's all very presumptuous and ill-conceived. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 12:07 hzflank wrote: But on day one, is that not all we have to go off of? No, Hurricane Sponge kindly provided some objectionable material for us to look over. Take some to go over some of Spicy Dinosaur's posts as well. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 12:10 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Alright, it appears that my plan has oversights that are unacceptable risks at this juncture. Thank you to the veteran players (or just simply better players) who found them so quickly. Personally, I'm more concerned about Chromatic's point (regarding letting mafia call their shot on blues) than the risk of a mafia-tracker claiming NN, but I will not protest if we continue the scum-hunt without regard for my posted plan. To me, everyone who is posting one-liners looks spammy to me, but I think the 'everyone is scum until they convince me otherwise' mentality isn't the worst thing in the world. Spicy and Xzavier are on my radar for the fluff and nonsense at the beginning. Chromatically and FirmTofu seem the most town as they were very quick to point out what were (in their view) flaws in a plan to move forward that may have compromised the town. For the time being, I am willing to forgive you for your plan because I honestly believe it was a newbie mistake. However, I reserve the right to change my opinion! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 12:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote: The Case on Xzavier being spammy: None of this is useable for me. That could just be me sucking at reads (no, really. This is a possibility), but none of this material brings anything new to the table for me or encourages serious scum-hunting discussion. Yeah, he's spammy, sure. Yeah, he hasn't contributed much, sure. Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who haven't contributed and spam is ok at this point because there isn't a whole lot to talk about. I don't this is sufficient evidence to justify a lynch. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote: The Players
We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
In all of his posts, he is extremely defensive. At the slightest mention of someone accusing him of anything, he flares up in his own defense. This could be due to his personality or it could be that he is extremely afraid of getting lynched. If it is indeed the latter, he is likely to be a powerful role, town or mafia. This is my preliminary assessment. (It's funny that this real analysis is in agreement with my fluff analysis at the beginning of the game) | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 12:39 Spicydinosaur wrote: I do this in all my games, check out Les Mafiafor a good example. Though i don't see how that is alignment indicative as no one wants to get lynched. I won't bother looking at your past games, because I believe you should only be judged on your actions in this game. As I mentioned before, you could very well have a defensive personality, so I am not saying you are definitely scum or anything like that. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Quoted Player List for reference: [QUOTE]On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote: The Players
[/QUOTE] Lurkers: fyfy, Aquanium, LoneMeow, StiMaDDict, Alakaslam (Sorry, I know you said you were eating, but for all intents and purposes, you haven't posted at all.) Let's keep a close watch on these guys before we start voting. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 13:22 hzflank wrote: At the moment I am looking at FirmTofu. His chain of attack and defense looks like: Attack Chromatically Attack Xzavier Attack Hurricane Attack Spicy Defend Hurricane Defend Xzavier Attack Spicy For some reason the defenses seem a little out of place to me, especially the defense on Xzavier. On the other hand I believe Hurricane to be town as if he were scum then he is very brave to make the first post that he did. I am also very aware that I made an slightly extended attack on Spicy, who now seems to be FirmTofu's main target. I am wondering if he thinks Spicy is a good lynch target because he can count on my vote.(1) He has also said twice that we should only use information from this game and not previous games. I think town should have access to as much information as possible in order to lynch scum. Therefore to me, FirmTofu is currently the scummiest player.(2) You are taking an extremely simplified approach to analyze my actions. I am not "attacking" or "defending" anyone. I am stating my opinions on how various people are behaving. If you can't distinguish between the two, we have a serious problem here. You can't say that my "defenses" are out of place without even looking at the context of the situation. Read my quote, see if it makes sense to you, and form an opinion based on that. Furthermore, this post is as scummy as scummy gets. You state that you can side with me as I pursue a lynch on Spicy(see 1), but you also consider me to be the scummiest player(see 2). How are these two chain of thoughts compatible? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DON'T QUOTE MESSED UP BBCODE. I have the bbcode fixed below, so if you want to quote the list, use this. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote: @FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically? Give me a sec, I'm reading up the thread again. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize. Event: NN roleclaims Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing. Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets. Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation. If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote: First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. Your condescending tone is strangely alluring. You are right that an NN claim is unlikely to be mafia, just because it is a quite a risky gambit. I knew that, but omitted it from my previous statement to strengthen my argument. I will agree to disagree about whether the fact that the gain in information to scum is significant, but overall, you make a solid case for an NN claim. I concede on the grounds that I am unfamiliar with how this sort of role interacts with others, and your argument seems sound. As for Chromatically... Your case is extremely weak. On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: Regarding scum Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Addressing your point 1), you are going off a bad feeling. Feelings don't cut it for me. I need evidence to make a move. Addressing point 2), it seems quite town to me because it's forcing lurkers to talk. Talking is good for town, so I see this move as something a townie would do. There are a few other things that make me think Chromatically is town. He was the first person to point out the foolish aspects of Hurricane's poorly thought-out claim. What incentive would mafia have to steer town in the right direction? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 02:53 hzflank wrote: I've been waiting for particular posts from Aquanim and Chromatically, which they have now made. That's a pretty flimsy case that Chrom has made against me. There is no reason to think that I would make a casual opening post when by the time I joined the game there were already five other casual opening posts. I think the game strategy stuff (regarding NN) was as good a discussion as any as it is actually important to the game. Up until this point I have in no way cared as to whether or not I look scummy, and since I got my scum read from Aquanim's first post it made sense for me to wait until there was a case made against someone before I posted this. It's about time that the scum try to get a wagon rolling and I am happy enough for that wagon to be on me, so I will even help scum Chromatically by ensuring that scum Aquanim also votes for me. Here is my take on the important parts of day 1 so far: Hurricane is the first to discuss the NN claiming. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 11:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Ugh, let's avoid the 'should we lynch lurkers talk' shall we? I'm gonna go ahead and post the play I had written earlier this week analyzing this game from a pro-town perspective. If any of my analysis is off-base, please jump in and steer me back on track. Pre-written segment starts now: Alright, chums. First let me state that in NO WAY is the following message a call for a mass claim. If you are the Parity Cop (assuming you even exist), DO NOT SAY SO. In fact, if you're our town's parity cop, it's probably better if you appear to ignore what I'm about to say completely. Same goes for Trackers and Watchers. DO NOT CLAIM. But read carefully, because you are a big part of whether we succeed or fail (whether we follow my plan or not). Now everyone, pay attention: Looking over the roles, the extremely juicy pro-town potential jumped right off the page at me, as I hope it did to many of you. Trackers can tell us if a person visits someone. Pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Watcher, who can pick a person and sees all who visit them. Obviously, this means we can try to guess the guy who's going to be mafia-killed, and we have a couple shots at seeing if he either gets visited, or manage to Track the mafia member who happens to be tagged to do the deed. Not great odds on either, but still better than nothing. My plan utilizes each role to their maximum potential. Because we are not guaranteed to have a Tracker, Watcher, or even a Parity Cop, it's important that for the roles we DO get, we use them efficiently. The Watcher needs to guess the target they think will be mafia-killed tonight. This is up to your judgement, but I'll make a recommendation later today. The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town. I can elaborate further, but I feel like you can all piece together whatever holes are out there without me holding your hand even further. This is an extremely pro-town set-up (assuming there aren't a bunch of red herrings in which case, Hi I'm sponge, and I just gave you all the book on me.) and I'd like to move fast before mafia can organize their thoughts in their private little forum. If we move fast, and force independent action, they lose one of their many advantages. I wont go into my game theory here but can do in another post if people request, however I absolutely believe that the NN declaring is something that the scum would want. There were several people that disagreed with NN claiming, but importantly no one declared Hurricane to be especially scummy for making the post. Aquanim then makes a first post that is clever scum. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: You wound me. Regarding claims I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scum Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Aquanim hopes that he can get a few town to agree that the NN should out themselves. Then his scumbuddies can also agree and the NN might claim, giving an advantage to the scum team. Since Hurricane did not get a hard time, Aquanim does not think that he will be lynched for being the first to make the suggestion. Aquanim is fairly sure that when the time comes he can rely on Hurricanes vote for NN to claim, so he really only needs two more town votes, which makes it worth a try. Aqua's scumbuddy, Chromatically, has already said that the NN claiming is a bad idea. Aqua sees a chance to make a good play here and throws a weak vote on Chromatically. It is still early in the day and there is little chance of a wagon forming. Aqua never intends to leave his vote on Chromatically, but is just creating some distance from him so that it wont look suspicious if Chromatically should change his mind about the NN claim. Ofcourse there is the added bonus that if Chromatically should later flip scum then Aqua can refer to his very first post and claim to be confirmed town. Next, FirmTofu defends my weak read on him. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 13:34 FirmTofu wrote: You are taking an extremely simplified approach to analyze my actions. I am not "attacking" or "defending" anyone. I am stating my opinions on how various people are behaving. If you can't distinguish between the two, we have a serious problem here. You can't say that my "defenses" are out of place without even looking at the context of the situation. Read my quote, see if it makes sense to you, and form an opinion based on that. Furthermore, this post is as scummy as scummy gets. You state that you can side with me as I pursue a lynch on Spicy(see 1), but you also consider me to be the scummiest player(see 2). How are these two chain of thoughts compatible? By this point I suspect that either Aqua or Chromatically might put their vote on me, but I cannot say so prematurely, especially since Aqua still has his vote on Chrom. After a little consideration I decide to lurk for a while, as I wanted Chrom to make a post of some sort before I made this claim. Next we have: So right after Aqua realised my above mistake with Firm, he asks Firm for his read on Chrom (who aqua still has his vote on). He is either looking for Firm to give him a good reason to think Chrom is town, or he is looking for Firm to give a scum read on me, or both. Either way, Firm is the most likely town to get onto my wagon at this point, so it is good setup. Here we have Aqua ask Firm again for their opinion on his case on Chromatically. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote: First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. Remember that this was the case that Aqua put forth in his very first post of the game. It was not a strong case and he knew it would never stand, so it was a good way to both give people a town read on his scumbuddy and also create some distance within the scum team. Firm responds that he thinks Chrom is town, which is exactly what Aqua wanted and why he asked him twice. Aqua has now gotten Firm (the person he thinks he can get to vote for me) to say that the scumbuddy that Aqua has his vote on (Chrom) is town. Well played Aqua. Shorlty after, Aqua posts this + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote: I suppose that's a fair enough position to hold. I've personally found that my reads based on 'feelings' are often more accurate than those where I carefully assemble 'evidence'. This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII. Asking questions is a town-y kind of thing to do, I agree. However, in my mind it is only significantly town-y when there is an actual plan behind those questions. By comparison, Chromatic was asking pretty generic questions without any real point or follow-up. Asking other people for their reads while having shared none of his own does not sit well with me. Pointing out that some plan or another is stupid before anyone else does is a really cheap way of accumulating town-cred without committing to anything. Someone was going to shoot that plan down either way, so a scum player would have nothing to gain from not shooting it down. All this being said, I think that what he's done so far could plausibly be explained by a town mentality as well as a scum one. If he comes back tomorrow and starts playing a good town-game I'll be looking to lynch somebody else. For the meantime, though, my vote and intention stays. There he gets in that his read on Chrom is based on feelings rather than evidence. He is telling us that there is no good reason to suspect Chrom while he still has his vote on Chrom. He closed by saying that if Chrom starts to play a good town game then he will move his vote to someone else, which in this case will be the person that Chrom votes for because they are scumbuddies. Here Aqua mocks Firm for voting due to inactivity because part of their plan was that Firm would vote for me, and he wants to make sure that Firm will move his vote. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 19:35 Aquanim wrote: You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious. I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours. Chromatically gets back online and makes this post: + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote: Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells. Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it. If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them? Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason? You also said: Oh, this feels more like the scum Chromatic from XXXI? I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and Nns. I take that as: 'Okay Aqua, time to unvote me now because I am going to try to start a wagon on someone else and it would not look as good for you to move your vote directly from me to them'. Surprise surprise, in the very next post Aqua unvotes Chrom, which we all knew would happen after reading Aqua's very first post in this game (where he voted for Chrom). The most important line in this post by Aqua is: 'Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you', because that is him paving the way for Chrom to begin the mis-lynch attempt. And then finally Chrom makes a case against me and votes. Now, it would be easier for me to vote if I had an individual scum read, but since I am fairly confident that both Aqua and Chrom are scum, I am going to vote for Chrom because I think doing so will force Aqua to take a very strong stance one way or the other. Chrom already has his vote on me, so if I vote Aqua then Chrom does not need to make a decision and can just leave his vote where it is. ##Vote: Chromatically I almost agree with everything you said. The problem arises when you realize that the case you've made for aqua is a hell of a lot stronger than the case you've made for Chromatically. Is this something you have overlooked? Or are you deliberately weaving a story to pit town against one another? For the time being, it's hard to tell one way or the other, but I did enjoy reading. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote: @Aquanim I dont like your case against chrom. Our exchange in the beginning was just to get the ball rolling which worked and started generating some content. Its still early D1 but right now im feeling chrom as town. Looking at FirmTofu as possible scum target. His first post is pure spam that does nothing to generate discussion It wasn't pure spam, and I certainly hoped it would generate discussion. I knew I could not really say anything of substance at that point, so I decided to do something fun that would get people talking. I see absolutely nothing wrong with that. When you look at this post and contrast it to some first few posts, you can clearly see that singling me out as a target is rather silly. On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote: I'm also not a huge fan of his stance on meta use. He claims that he doesn't want to use meta which would be fine on its own, but here he is using the argument to ignore evidence. He claims I'm scummy because i am defensive when accused of being scum. I'm not sure this qualifies for an argument against me. My belief that the game should stay in the game is merely a philosophical one and has absolutely nothing to do with my alignment. You can use it against me to form your weak case for lynching me, but it isn't going to convince anyone. On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote: He acknowledges that it could just be my personality, yet when I link past games to show exactly that, he ignores it. At this point he just backs off his scum claim. I wasn't ignoring it, I was reiterating my aforementioned stance on using prior games to influence future ones. You are also just listing my actions and not commenting on how they seem scummy to you. I'm not sure what is scummy here. On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote: Next up is the lurker list post which doesnt tell us anything new and just clutters up the thread. We all know who has/hasnt been posting as the filter button is a click away. Yes, the bbcode got messed up. However, I had quoted numerous things prior to that quote that didn't have the bbcode messed up. To read into an honest mistake like that as a deliberate ploy is rather silly. I wanted to draw attention to the players who had not yet spoken, that was all. I didn't ask anyone to quote my bad bbcode, did I? They could have just as easily fixed it themselves, instead of placing the blame on me. This is such a silly argument that holds no substance. On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote: Lastly his vote on fyfy has been bugging me. It is clearly a pressure vote to get him active but why target fyfy over stim? Stim actually posted at the beginning of the day right after the day post, then dissipated. He was there reading the thread but not actively posting. This seems scummier than fyfy at the moment. Just because Stim seems scummier than fyfy doesn't mean fyfy shouldn't be voted. I wanted fyfy to talk and I wanted to draw attention to him. That was the reason for my vote. Nothing more, nothing less. We can address Stim now that I am awake. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 03:44 hzflank wrote: I realize that my post focused mostly on Aqua, but my case was that they were working as a team. Any case I have against Aqua alone would be so weak that even I would not vote based on it. If Aqua is scum and Chrom is town then Aqua is much more skilled at this that I am, as it would mean he made it look like he was working with Chrom without Chrom becoming aware of it, and that Chrom played right into his hands. I do not believe that, it makes my connections less likely, and going down that route is more likely to split the vote. Regardless, I see your story as a plausible conspiracy theory, at best. Acting upon it without further evidence is dangerous. Most of your post relies on speculation about the player's true motives. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 03:41 Chromatically wrote: What's really bizarre is how quickly Tofu agreed with this case. You'd better explain yourself too. I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
1) It draws attention to himself. 2) You flip town, everyone automatically blames him The only possible explanations are either that you are both town, or that Chromatically is scum and hzflank is town. In my opinion, hzflank would be taking an extremely risky move as scum that is far too risky to take. For that reason, he remains innocent in my eyes. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 04:10 Chromatically wrote: Why do you think that he is town? Did you read my case? Where's the town motivation in making up a story purely to hurt my credibility? Your case was good. However, in light of recent developments, I consider hzflank to be solidly town. Read my previous post for an explanation. A townie's motivation to hurt your credibility is to draw attention off of himself and onto his accuser. If he knows he is town, and some idiot is tunneling him, he is likely to see the idiot unfavorably, no? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
My Case Against SpicyDinosaur Play-by-play: Spicy starts off with an innocuous "Hey everyone", but is met with an immediate (harmless) accusation by Chromatically. On June 24 2013 11:09 Spicydinosaur wrote: Please point out and explain exactly what you think is scummy. Here we can see him blowing it out of proportion. With this, we can deduce that he is probably a blue role, alignment unclear OR that he has a overly defensive personality. I have stated this sentiment earlier in the thread. On June 24 2013 11:17 Spicydinosaur wrote: Not taking it super seriously, just busting you back. I posted in the thread then went back to reddit. Checked the thread again after a few minutes. I'll be around tonight and early tomorrow morning. And hey Xzavier. Here we see Chromatically respond to Spicy's defensive post. Spicy downplays his actions as mere friendly banter and continues on his way. This is consistent with his previous post and is mostly harmless. After a few hours, Hurricane shows up and posts his "Case for Spicy" On June 24 2013 12:28 Hurricane Sponge wrote: The Case for Spicy: He later comes in with some actual(if not elegant) points on the game, but they're both just him defending his play in previous games: Not my favorite play in the world, but at least it's content. Honestly, this isn't much of a case. What is interesting however, is Spicy's disproportionate response to it. On June 24 2013 12:30 Spicydinosaur wrote: An intro post saying hi and then answering questions is now fluff? If you want to talk about fluff then look to your first post. Nothing useful. All you say is dont claim or dont listen to you. Just restating whats in the OP. spam Horrible idea for someone to claim at all this early. More fluff with nothing of substance. Scum Radar: BEEP BEEP BEEP BEEP Holy bananas, did Spicy go full ad hominem today! Resorting to cheap personal attacks to discredit Hurricane's arguments(or lack thereof), further reinforces the fact that Spicy is extremely afraid of dying. A blue town member would try to dissect the argument and point out its flaws.Spicy makes no attempt to contribute to the discussion at all. After posting a bit further and defending himself from some of my accusations, he takes an 8 hour hiatus; I would assume he slept. He returns with his case against me. (Not going to quote it because it messes up my bbcode) As I have already refuted all his points, I will not do so again. The important point to note is that he seems to be fishing for scum in me where there is none. This makes it seem as though he wants to discredit me so that others will stop listening to what I have to say. Most of the issues he has with me are shared between various other people as well. It is truly odd that he chooses me as a target instead of the others. Am I dangerous to him in some way? If so, how? Another issue that may be useful later is his subtle defense of fyfy that worked wonders to nail me as an idiot for having voted him. Everyone fell for it, but for the time being, I have linked Spicy and fyfy as possible teammates. On June 25 2013 02:12 Spicydinosaur wrote: The bolded part what bothers me. Trying not to make waves is a perfect way to go unnoticed in a game. Too much activity and everyones looking at you, too little and your a lurker who gets a big spotlight on you. This is the nail in the coffin. Chromatically sums up succinctly why the town aspects of me outweigh the scum aspects, but Spicy deliberately highlights the scum aspects and emphasizes them to justify his reasoning. His silence on the town aspects of me indicates that he cannot refute those points, but he still refuses to take his vote off of me. Whether it be arrogance or a scum-tell, Spicy is definitely a suspicious individual that needs to be looked into. ##Vote: SpicyDinosaur | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
2) You aren't deconstructing his argument paragraph by paragraph, you are just stating that he is full of shit without giving any explanation as to why. Where is the substance? Please point me to the post where you discredited his theory, because I think you might be making things up here. 3) You defended fyfy while accusing me of not voting for Stim instead of fyfy. There was no reason to say that when both were perfectly good lurker targets that were largely interchangeable. 4) Fair enough 5) Sometimes someone needs to point out the obvious when no one is actually discussing it. If anything, this is a town move, not a scum move. 6) My mistake. I mistakenly assumed you had voted me, so that point of mine is void. However, I will address some of your counter-arguments. 7) Okay sure, but this is still standard procedure for scum. Scum wouldn't want to be the driving force behind a lynch that they know to be town because they would have to deal with the consequences of the flip the following day. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 06:42 Chromatically wrote: I'll look at it when I get back, as well as finish another reread. I think that we're looking in the wrong place, I'm looking more towards the Xzav/Alaka/Stim/Meow semi-/lurker area. They are potential scum, sure, but it's always harder to convince people that semi-lurkers are scum because they don't post enough to allow us to get a good read off of them. Have a look at Spicy, let me know your thoughts on some other people, and we can agree to vote on someone. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 06:58 Spicydinosaur wrote: I failed quoted it in my post i dont see how you missed it. Additionally whats there to discuss when he was simply restating what the roles were and what they did. I stated exactly why there was a reason. because stim posted right at the start of d1 then lurked. I felt the lurkers were not equal at the time (before fyfy started posting) so it was a curious choice. In the games ive played its always seen as a scum move even if done by a townie. If i thought you were scum i would have no hesitation to vote you first. Like i said before i found your play scummyish and this vote felt very retaliatory which isn't a scum move. 2) That quote was referring to Aquanim's suggestion to get the NN to roleclaim, not Hurricanes'. Are you trying to deliberately mislead us? 3) My point is your reason is stupid. What difference does one line of posting make? Seriously? Accusing me of being scum based on one line that someone else wrote? 5) What...? Just...what? WHO CARES HOW IT'S ALWAYS SEEN!?!!? If a townie is known to do something like it, why in the world would you see it as a scum move??? If anything, you should see it as a neutral move because both scum and town are known to do it. 7) You aren't even responding to what I said. The fact that you didn't vote me is indicative of the fact that you are scum! To clarify, I'm not voting you because you accused me and didn't vote me. I'm voting you because of the reasons I have stated throughout this thread that suggest that you are scum. Whether you vote me or not is largely irrelevant, so trying to justify your actions isn't helping you at all. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 07:28 Spicydinosaur wrote: 1) Now you are going with personal insults that you claimed i did on someone else? The quote was talking about the same issue... ie NN. 2) As for fyfy...You claimed there was no difference in the lurkers, i pointed out that there WAS a difference now its a stupid reason? I didnt accuse u of scum off of one line, thats why it was included in a whole post of other reasons. 3) You voted for me when you thought i had voted you. you were wrong then. You cant go back and change your rational for voting me saying its now because i DIDNT vote you and the fact that i didnt vote you is somehow now irrelevent the bolded is contradictory and makes no sense. 4) The fact that you are not quoting 1/2 of my counterpoints from my original reply means you conceded them and it shows how weak your argument is on a whole. You are constantly changing what your argument is about me just to fit your narrative that you have in your head. 1) I think it's fairly obvious to a third party that you were referring to Aquanim's post when you quoted the quote and that you are trying to draw attention away from your response to Hurricane. 2) For fyfy, I still hold that there is no difference between the lurkers and you claimed that there is a difference. I think your reasons for claiming that there is a difference are stupid and make no sense because only one line separated one from the other. Why do you continue to defend fyfy? It's quite intriguing. 3) NO. I did not vote for you because I thought you voted for me. I voted you because you accused me. I was under the assumption that you had voted for me, but I have already acknowledged that that was a mistake. Remember this post, where you said, "Chrom did bring up some townie points on you and I dont have my vote on you because I wasn't convinced you were scum, otherwise it wouldn't be on it. " Then I said, "Okay sure, but this is still standard procedure for scum. Scum wouldn't want to be the driving force behind a lynch that they know to be town because they would have to deal with the consequences of the flip the following day." When I said that, I meant that it would still make sense for you to be scum when you have accused me but have not voted me because you want me dead, but don't want to be regarded as the cause of my death. Therefore, you being scum is perfectly compatible with you not voting for me. The fact that you have since backed off of your accusations against me is only furthering my suspicions that you are scum because you know that pursuing a lynch against me would lynch a townie and would ultimately end with your demise. In other words, all of your actions are still compatible with you being scum, so my vote remains. 4) What? I quoted everything and responded to everything you said. Now you are just plain lying to discredit me. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Voting rules:
If you do not think Chromatically is scum, then please vote either 1) No lynch or 2) Someone else. In the event of a tie, the person who gets voted up first, dies. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 07:57 Spicydinosaur wrote: 1. i stand by my response to hurricanes post, his was full of fluff and lacked content. what i said in reply to aqua applies to hurricane because he was the one who started talking about the whole NN issue. It's pretty clear. 2. you keep insisting that im defending fyfy when all i have ever said is that stim looked scummier. YOU are the one who keeps saying that im defending him. 3. This point has been done to death and you keep changing what you are saying about it. First im scum for voting you then im scum for not voting you then im scum and my vote on you never mattered. 4. In your original post where you voted me you had your case. I countered with my 7 points and then you only responded to a few and acknowledged you were wrong on at least one. The fact that you didnt talk about the others shows that you backed off them. As i said before, for someone who thinks im scum because you think i went personal on someone else, you are throwing insults around a lot. 1. I don't think it's clear at all. You can keep saying that, but it simply isn't true. 2. Of course I'm the one saying you are defending him. Who else would say it? By saying Stim looks scummier, you imply that fyfy doesn't look scummy. That's a way of defending him. 3. You continue to misinterpret my position. You are scum for accusing me on flimsy evidence. You are scum for withdrawing only when I accuse you back. You are scum for not withdrawing when Chromatically posted his views on my alignment. You are scum for plenty of things, but voting me isn't one of them. Your vote on me would have mattered if you had the opportunity to remove it, but it doesn't matter because you never actually voted me. 4. I responded to 6 of the 7 points, because the first one had already been discussed. Then, you responded to about 4 of my points. I responded to all of those, and we exchanged blows from there. I don't think you can rightfully say I am picking and choosing my arguments. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 07:59 cDgCorazon wrote: No need to condescend people, Tofu. Take that as a warning. Fair enough, I got a little frustrated with repeating the same points over and over again. Sorry. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 08:14 Spicydinosaur wrote: I've said everything i need to defend myself and anyone looking at it will see how weak your argument is. That just about sums up my position as well. I would like to hear other people's thoughts on the matter. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 11:09 Xzavier wrote: okay, i just want to say that half of you are fucking retarded, now, im watching day9. after him, im going to show you all how fucking retarded you are. How quaint. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 11:16 Chromatically wrote: Wow, you replied quickly for someone who has been mysteriously absent all day. Also very, very defensive. I got a warning for being moderately condescending in a heated debate and this guy gets off scot free for trashing half the town with vulgar language. Color me surprised. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I believe hzflank, Xzavier, and Onegu have all voted Aquanim and Chromatically and Aquanim have both voted Xzavier. It is funny that hzflank's theory could still be real. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 13:28 FirmTofu wrote: This is good. We are starting to see two groups of people voting for 2 distinctly different people. This will tell us quite a bit post-lynch about who is aligned with who, regardless of the flip. I will not proclaim my leanings yet as we still have to hear from quite a few people and we still have some time before the lynch. I believe hzflank, Xzavier, and Onegu have all voted Aquanim and Chromatically and Aquanim have both voted Xzavier. It is funny that hzflank's theory could still be real. EBWOP: Add Meow to the list of people voting for Xzavier. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 14:36 Xzavier wrote: Okay. heres something plane and simple. what scum in their right mind would call everybody fkn retarded? thats a death wish as scum. it brings so much attention to you. but it CAN be useful as town. How is calling everyone retarded useful as town? You are quite the character, sir. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 14:49 Xzavier wrote: It provokes reaction albiet im regretting that decision as i recieved a warning for it, rightfully so. However its useless and counterproductive for scum play. Well, your statement would be valid if you were referring to a singular person. By calling everyone all you do is piss everyone off and make yourself look like an asshole. Might want to keep that in mind for the future. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 15:29 Xzavier wrote: Honestly not today. he did a really good jpb as town last game and gave some good insights. After going threw his filter it seems like he was forced into a defensive posting pattern due to pressure. he hasnt said much recently. Honestly i wouldnt mind lynching alakazam day 1. But ill giv him a chance to respond. Im really not liking chrom or auqa for their tunnelling me while ignoring logic and basing everything off of the fact that i havnt caught scum yet or made a case. The fact that you are willing to change your vote to Alakazam but not Spicy is rather arbitrary. When facing death, a townie would be willing to change his vote to anyone to stay alive. You have sealed your fate in my eyes with this response and have furthered confirmed my suspicions of Spicy. As it seems very few people agree with my suspicions of Spicy, I will defer to a sub-optimal lynch of you. ##Unvote: SpicyDinosaur ##Vote: Xzavier | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 25 2013 16:45 Onegu wrote: Actually I have made a scum hunt albit small on alakaslam, I think he is noob scum which isnt as important as killing a scum who knows what they are doing. Jesus Christ bud, if you think he's scum, by all means vote him. It's not like you know of any scum who know what they're doing, so you not voting for Alakasam is extremely suspicious to me. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Scenario 1: Xzavier is town Mafia should be distancing themselves from the lynch and somewhat defending him. Scenario 2: Xzavier is mafia Mafia should be vehemently arguing in his defense while also trying to distance themselves from him. It's a balancing act that is hard to do. Keep an eye out for people who fall into the latter category for now. On another note, I agree with Hurricane that StiM is the best lynch for today. However, letting Aqua die is simply not an option. We only lynch StiM if we know we can get enough votes. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Chromatically (0): fyfy (0): hzflank (0): FirmTofu (0): Spicydinosaur (0): Xzavier (4): LoneMeow, Chromatically, Aquanim, FirmTofu Aquanim (4): Alakaslam (1): Onegu Hurricane Sponge (1): SpicyDinosaur StiMaDDict (1): Hurricane Sponge Not Voting: NO ONE Please correct if I made a mistake. Xzavier is set to be lynched because of the tiebreaker. Assuming Onegu goes to the Aquanim lynch again, we will need Hurricane's vote to guarantee that Xzavier dies today instead of Aquanim. Everything is riding on one vote. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows... Xzavier SpicyDinosaur Onegu They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case. Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote: To be honest I dont care who is killed if Xzavier flips town my vote will go on aquanim and if he flips scum I will vote Spicydinosaur. My current read on Xzavier is null with scum reads on alakaslam and aqua. With every post Alakaslam makes he looks more and more like noob scum to me. Sounds great! Could you consider looking through Xzavier's filter and reading Chromatically's case against Xzavier and consider voting for him? I would be willing to take you off my scum list if you would do that. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 02:22 Chromatically wrote: You don't care who is killed? Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh We are trying to convince him to vote Xzavier, not antagonize and interrogate him. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 02:45 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Reacting to what I just posted, the ideal mafia play if they were down a man and the Aqua bandwagon looked doomed to fail would be to switch to Stim. They'd figure I'd switch my vote, and I think FirmTofu mentioned he found Stim fishy as well. Of course, they wouldn't do this if Stim were mafia. We're about to see some interesting play, I think. Excellent points, Hurricane. I concur. We shall see if the votes switches hands soon enough. If StiM ends up getting a random bandwagon in the last few hours of the day, I would actually keep my vote on Xzavier, for these reasons. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 05:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote: If Xzavier flips town, I still probably won't be that convinced that Aqua is scum. These two events are independent of each other in my mind. It could be that both players are Town, and the mafia were simply supporting the bandwagon on the stronger pro-town player. Aqua hasn't posted in a while, but when he does, I like what I feel from him. Depending on Alakaslam's action, he may be a person of interest in questioning. This is key. Both Chromatically and Aqua are far too pro-town for me to even consider them as scum at this point, regardless of the flip. They are pursuing a lynch so vehemently that they cannot possibly be scum. Scum likes to hide. Scum likes to draw attention away from them. They aren't gonna take a huge risk and tunnel someone that they know isn't scum. It's simply illogical. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 05:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: He has an opinion. He thinks both of the current lynch candidates are scum. It's weird, but I see where he's coming from. My guess is that he's trying to establish a voting track record on who he believes is the most scummy person out there. Which happens to be neither of the current candidates. Even though he does believe they're both scum. Huh, yeah... I guess that is weird. Apathy is a sign of defeatist scum trying to win back the town's favor. Initially, he was very pro-lynching Aqua, now he is apathetic with a fairly low amount of developments? Scummy see, scummy do. Onegu might just be more scummy than Spicy at this point for me. That's quite a turnaround. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 06:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote: EBWOP: GOD DAMMIT my first broken BBCode. My bad. TL:DR Spicy is wasting his vote just like Onegu is. Why would Onegu be MORE scummy at this point? Because his apathy is a scumtell. I already explained that. He's going from tunneling someone to apathy over the course of a handful of posts. Spicy is wasting his vote, sure... but Onegu is doing that and more. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 08:17 hzflank wrote: I will try another angle: LoneMeow was the first to vote on Xzavier. I think that LoneMeow is town. He has never looked scummy to me and he thought that Xzavier was scum for the start. It makes sense that LoneMeow would be the first to vote on Xzavier. Next to add their vote was Chromatically. Despite my earlier attack, Chrom has been looking more and more town to me. The only reason that I can see a scum Chrom voting Xzavier when he did is if Aqua is also scum, and everyone thought that idea was ridiculous. Therefore, I expect most of you see Chrom as town and the first two people on the wagon as town. Aqua was the third to vote. Most of you think Aqua is town. That means most of you must think that the first 3 people on the wagon are town. Is that not odd to anyone? If three townies jump on a scum wagon then there should of been a counter play by the scum team by now. And yet I started the Aqua wagon and I am posting this. It does not make sense. There was a counter play! The scum saw that you had already started a vote on Aqua and used that as an opportunity to draw attention away from Xzavier. While I strongly believe you are town because you were the one to start the lynch with some pretty good analysis, I do not believe that the other people pursuing the Aqua wagon are free from blame. The fact that they jumped on Aqua right after Xzavier's bandwagon was gaining momentum is indicative of this fact. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum. How likely is this scenario? Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way. Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance. Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier. Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie? A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way. Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game. Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable. 1) hzflank 2) Onegu 3) Spicydinosaur 4) StiMaDDict 5) Alakaslam 6) Hurricane Sponge Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list. 1) Onegu 2) Spicydinosaur 3) StiMaDDict 4) Alakaslam Onegu: Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier! The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum[/red] and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day. I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:29 Alakaslam wrote: Spicy, work with sponge please. This will lead to town victory. You two (and Onegu) are the most clearheaded in the thread so far, and you've both been right in the face of bandwagon. Learning, learning.... Have you ever stopped to consider that the reason they appear the most "clear headed" is because they know that the flip will be town? You realize that if they know the flip is town, they are scum? I mean, this is common sense. The reason they look smart is because they know people's alignment and can act accordingly. Scum tell are when you find these leaps in logic that indicate that a logical step in their reasoning assumes certain alignments. You've got to keep looking for these things. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:36 Alakaslam wrote: Yeah, maybe, check my late filter. Depends on cases against him. I just gave my vote to a mislynch right after reading town off his filter. Do not expect voting confidence from me yet! Going to homework, I need it! :p. Potato may = paranoia. Possibly acute. Along with this homework, I am going to read the town section of the thread I linked again. If you make cases against me folks don't do it based on the "lurking" I'm about to do for obvious reasons. -_- Not only is the case laid out in plain sight for you to see, you are choosing, deliberately, to ignore our dire need to pursue this lynch. The case for Xzavier pales in comparison to the case we have on Onegu because we can work off the known fact that Xzavier flipped town. Honestly, a lynch on Onegu should be a no-brainer for town at this point. I can think of no situation where a town-aligned person would behave in the way that he did. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote: @FirmTofu Does this exonerate Alakaslam in your mind? (Onegu seemed to have the idea of planting the seeds for a Day 2 Alakaslam lynch) Of course not. In my mind, Alakaslam is catapulting his way to the top of the scum ladder. Assuming Onegu is scum, we can see that he chose to push the early stages of an Aqua lynch and then, when Xzavier was guaranteed to be lynched, Onegu switched his vote to Alakaslam based upon a fairly pathetic case. My take? Onegu is trying to use the last few hours of the day to place himself at odds with Alakaslam because they are both scum! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:40 Chromatically wrote: Tofu, I'm glad that we are thinking the same thing on Onegu. I'm going to have another long look at Spicy and see if I can find some good reasons why he wasn't voting Xzav. It's possible that he might have been avoiding that for no reason to avoid suspicion. I'm off the mind that the Xzav lynch had good reasoning behind it. Knowing what we knew, I would lynch him again (and a lot of strong town agreed with the reasoning, it seems). I concur. The Xzavier lynch didn't actually have the highest chance of flipping scum for me; however, it definitely provided invaluable information that we can use throughout the game. I'm glad to see we agree. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote: Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav. I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim. I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point. P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink* | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote: [/red]Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon. You still aren't addressing your scum tell. Come back when you actually read my post please. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 13:21 Onegu wrote: [/red]My vote isnt a scum tell and neither is my apathy toward who get lynched, jeez think about it, me doing what I did is something only town would do, scum wouldnt do it because of all the backlash if scum really didnt care they would put thier vote on on of the two bandwagons and not say much as to why they voted(1). I gave you reasons for my vote and reasons why I was ok with both of them being lynched, none of that is a scumtell(2). The fact xzavier flipped town we should be looking at people who piled on to his bandwagon they would want to ensure the lynch of the person with the most votes so there isnt a last minute swich onto one of the scum. (1)Town wouldn't do it either because it is a scum-tell so the bolded point is invalid. (2) Your vote was contradictory to your statements. It was a scumtell, you can't deny that. You are simply saying "I'm right and you're wrong" and that really isn't much of a defense. You should be saying "I made a mistake and I meant to say..." You are digging yourself deeper into a hole that you won't be able to crawl out of at this point. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 14:10 Alakaslam wrote: Waitaminute I just sort I did this in reply to him. Pah! Make your cases for a minute I swear I don't know if Onegu is scum or not, FirmTofu (who I DO think is town, he granted my wish) says Onegu scum slipped but I think it relies on me being scum and I know better. But iPhone, that is why i didn't see the error in my own post. Tofu what page did you elaborate on? Medic, I really hope you exist. You should know who to protect right now. If you think I'm asking for guard you are daft, but I assume you know who needs it. It doesn't rely on you being scum at all. You flipping mafia is somewhat reliant on Onegu flipping mafia, however. I believe my case against Onegu is 2 pages ago. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 14:18 Alakaslam wrote: [/red]Nvm, page 32. Huh. But... Then is your read on me not 100% scum? Or do you mean that he would bus or just knew I would not be lynched? I SWORE I'd be lynched because I was a total fail, and I largely felt the case against Xzavier was a rust bucket until I read Aquanim's filter. Hindsight is perfect, how did Onegu know at that time I would not be lynched? He was the only vote on you. He was the first person to make a case against you. His case was pathetic. There were already 2 bandwagons going on against 2 people decision was which one of the two would be lynched. He definitely knew that you wouldn't get lynched... | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame. If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him. Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum. The ball is in your court. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 14:28 FirmTofu wrote: So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team. If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame. If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him. Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum. The ball is in your court. On that note, I believe it would be wise for the parity cop to check Onegu with someone else so that we can get some hard evidence to work with that confirms my theory. Use your best judgement to choose someone pro-town to use as the other pairing. All of this is, of course, assuming that a parity cop exists. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 15:45 Onegu wrote: You feel you need to bully the most inexperianced mafia player to vote for me? You have no case except a bogus scum tell so you have to bully someone to vote with you? Bullying? I don't see how this is bullying at all. I'm giving him a choice that he can choose to accept or not and I letting him know the consequences of his decision. At this point, Alakslam is looking for reasons to cast doubt on my case, which is just more fodder for the case against him. He will go down with the ship unless mafia cuts their losses and votes for you, Onegu. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 16:11 Hurricane Sponge wrote: (Quick note, Spicy definitely defended fyfy from Tofu for WAY longer than any sane person would have, much less a mafia. Based on that encounter, Spicy is supertown. I didn't manage to quote the entire exchange in the broken case post, but if you don't believe me, it's pretty easy to find. Just control-F 'Hitler' and work your way backwards.) I beg to differ. Spicy was defending against my accusation that fyfy and Spicy were both mafia. Thus, "defending" fyfy was just an issue of self-preservation. If people think fyfy is town, people think he is town, therefore his obvious self-preservationist instinct would lead him to defend fyfy. This is neither a scum-tell nor a town-tell. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 16:23 Alakaslam wrote: Because when he helped me he helped town. Let me tack on to that question: why do you scum read me if not for Onegu's "rust bucket" case on me? Gogogo! I knew it was strong! I agree you aren't bullying but nonetheless- explain why scum Onegu said "don't distract the thread" and "stop putting hypocritical posts and fluff". I'm not against voting Onegu except that I just can't see mafia doing that so early! They want townies to play bad! Otherwise, yeah I have a null read on him. But the stuff that is town is great town IMO! Also, read Hurricane's findings. Not that Onegu couldn't still be scum but if he is Kudos, he is a prophetic mastermind. The again, I hear ace is very dangerous. Basically Tofu, make your case a little stronger and I take notice, otherwise go tunnel me! MI NE FREGGO! Okay. Onegu is using an easy tactic I like to call, "Say FirmTofu is distracting the thread and posting hypocritical posts and hopefully no one will lynch me" Notice how he isn't actually making a case against me even though he's saying I'm doing scummy things. This is because he knows I am town, he knows he is scum, and he knows town will never bandwagon me. His best bet to stay alive is to discredit me and hope no one listens to me. Also, Onegu isn't being pro-town by calling me scummy. He's being anti-town. Almost all of town agrees that I have been one of the most pro-town players this entire game. Of course, all of what I just wrote is probably useless because if you are scum, as I suspect you are, you won't listen to anything I say. I hope you prove me wrong. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 16:34 Alakaslam wrote: You quoted me actually. Who called you scummy in here? Clarify? And I did not, I mean nobody did. Why are you defending against nothing? You said make my case for Onegu stronger and I did. Read the quotes in order again. I'm not defending, I'm explaining what Onegu did and why he is scum. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 16:36 Alakaslam wrote: EBW+P oh. No dude he was calling me out on actually doing those things bro. That's what I'm saying, by shitting on me he was helping town. I was so dumb (still am) that I was making things worse the harder I tried to help. First you say he was helping you and now you say he's shitting on you and that helped town. I'm really confused as to what you're getting at so do me a favor and quote what post you are referring to so I can provide you an adequate response. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 16:43 Alakaslam wrote: We both need to clarify. I am asking you to specifically state a reason why Onegu corrected my scumminess, until he decided I must be scum as I wasn't improving. Then I added, please make the case against me independent of what Onegu said. Do you think he was bussing earlier? He made his case for me before too but felt aqua was a better target. But it is really this simple: if scum would tell a townie who was aiding his cause through spam to stop, explain how this is so And why. Do that, and you basically have my vote. However, when we get paranoid we look scummy. I know by experience. Calm down. Okay, I think I'm beginning to see what you're saying. Let me explain what happened. Onegu "corrected" your "scumminess" because it's an easy way for him to appear as though he's pro-town. He takes the newb player(forgive me for calling you this) and tells you that you are doing something wrong to get free town points. It worked actually. I didn't really suspect Onegu as mafia until much later into the day. The next event, when he accuses you of being scum, is a completely independent event. He used you to make himself appear as town because he knew Xzavier would flip town. Before Xzavier's inevitable lynch, he didn't want to look like he supported that lynch because, naturally, people who lynch innocent people are usually scum, right? So he realized he could vote someone else to make himself look super pro-town. After all, he didn't push for the Xzavier lynch so he's not gonna be targeted on day 2! Fortunately, Chromatically and I didn't fall for his shenanigans. I'm hoping you don't either. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 16:49 Alakaslam wrote: Fair enough, I really should be sleeping right now for work tomorrow. Cy'all! Going to bed as well. As an aside, I would like to say that this game is shaping up to be one of my favorites on this site so far. I'm really enjoying the heated debates and I hope no one finds me annoying or miserable. It's not my real personality, I'm actually a pretty nice guy. I just get all passionate sometimes and my brain feels like insulting everyone. Let me know if I'm being condescending because sometimes I can't distinguish it from whatever isn't condescending. Thanks for making a great game guys(Remember: I don't actually hate you even if I sound like I do) | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 01:47 Chromatically wrote: Oh yeah, that's a good point that I missed. Just a few posts later he says: + Show Spoiler + On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote: Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes. As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows... Xzavier SpicyDinosaur Onegu They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case. Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2. Stim isn't even in his proposed scumteam. Tofu, can you clarify this situation? Ah, of course. What happened was that I wanted Hurricane to switch his vote from StiM to Xzavier so that Aqua(who i had a stong town read on) wouldn't die. I was also very wary of StiM regardless because he was lurking hardcore. To win Hurricane over to our side, I got on his level. Obviously, I wasn't bein completely honest when I said StiM was the best lynch, but I knew that Aqua couldn't be allowed to die and this was my tactic to save him. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 02:36 Spicydinosaur wrote: So you admit you are a liar. Scummy as hell. Lying is definitely not a scum tell. Read the mafia guide by Ver. On August 26 2010 13:08 Ver wrote: Also, this is a good point to address the misconception that 'lying=mafia,' which is clearly not the case. I lie all the time as town, and much more rarely as mafia. Some may condemn this as inferior play, but lying, among other 'anti-town plays,' lets you open new routes of play that are ordinarily inaccessible if you behave as a 'perfect townie.' Most of the time you have to take a risk if you want to win. Of course the execution is everything, as lying for no gain is just going to make it harder for the town to do anything. And of course, many town players will lie on accident, without reason, or for some bizarre reason or another that you have no way of knowing. A point that will be emphasized continuously is the necessity to differentiate between mafia and bad townie play. You can't just lynch people and when they pop green excuse yourself by saying 'oh they were anti-town anyways.' The goal is to kill mafia, period. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 03:03 hzflank wrote: Tofu was one of the people on the wagon. Go back and read how the votes went down. Look at exactly who voted when and the reasons given. If Tofu is town then at least one other person on that wagon is scum. Why is Tofu wasting so much time on people who were not on the wagon? He meant to say Aqua, not Xzavier. I already explained why I'm "wasting" time with people that weren't on the wagon. People on the wagon are more likely to be town than people not on the wagon. Remember that scum KNEW that Xzavier would not flip mafia. Why in the world would they get on a wagon that they knew would not flip mafia? Logic dictates that their best course of action would be to say they think Xzavier is town, but NOT ACTUALLY TRY TO PREVENT THE LYNCH. Who are the people who did that? Onegu SpicyDinosaur Alakaslam You This is why this group of people is high on my scum list. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 03:15 hzflank wrote: If you think I was not trying to prevent the lynch then you have not read the thread. I tried, and you stopped me. Yes, you did try. I wasn't being fair when I added you to the list. I don't think you are scum, but you supporting Onegu's weak case against me was making me reconsider. Anyway, you haven't addressed the core reasoning, so I take it that you agree? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 03:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote: No, I meant what I said. I was addressing Spicy. Spicy is under suspicion because apparently he didn't defend Xzavier hard enough when he was a town read and one of the leading wagons: From Chromatically: "What I don't like (and this is a general statement about Spicy, Stim, and Onegu) is that when your vote is not on a leading wagon, you should be doing your ABSOLUTE BEST to push your read. This is especially true if you have a town read on the leader. A townie would do everything that they can to prevent a mislynch. Spicy defends Xzav a little, but then drops it" Tofu defended Aqua using every weapon available because he thought Aqua was town. Ah yes, I read it wrong. I'm not sure what hzflank was getting at, that was truly quite odd. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 03:25 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Because if everyone on the Xzavier wagon was town, then the mafia team is Onegu, Spicy and Stim. Well, I don't think he was referring to the last few tag along votes. I think he means one of the first few votes must be scum. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 03:29 Onegu wrote: My claim against you isnt weak and you havent addressed any of my points. In addition to that you lied in this game and did not come forward with your plan until you were called out on it. Your lieing not only decieved someone you didnt tell them what happend after you got what you wanted until someone caught you in a lie. you are useing very scummy tactics in lieing and bullying and think that is a perfectly normal town thing to do, it isnt it is a scum tactic. I'm making a huge post, but I keep checking the thread to address any new developments. I will post my reaction to your accusations against me as soon as I am finished. You say my lying deceived someone, but I fail to see how this hurt town. All my lying did was keep Aqua from dying. If the person I deceived is clearly okay with the fact that I deceived him, I don't see how this is even an issue. You keep saying I am doing scummy things, but are not providing any evidence to support your claims. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 03:40 Spicydinosaur wrote: Its a scum tell in this situation. Why would you need to lie in order to secure their votes? there were already cases against xzavier that you decided not to push. Instead u had to make up lies to get people over. Why was is it so important to lie to lynch Xzavier if his lynch was such a sure thing? You pushed hard for his lynch in a very deceitful way. Also given the fact that you are refusing to look at people who actually voted to to kill xzavier means u dont want people to look at you. You talk so much now how it was obvious that xzavier was going to be lynched, yet there was a time the vote was 3-3, and then later 4-4. Not at all clear cut. But you keep deflecting away from yourself at every possible turn. You have yet to comment on how bad your logic was with xzavier and I being scum buddies and your overall play during the lynching period. I just explained why I lied. I lied to SAVE Aqua. I didn't really push the lynch, remember I stated it was sub-optimal? My main intent was to keep Aqua alive, not to push for Xzavier's lynch. I'm not refusing to look at people who voted Xzavier. I've looked at them, and I have strong town reads on all of them. I've already explained all of this. My logic wasn't bad when I said you and Xzavier were scumbuddies. Xzavier and you were both playing scummy, so I naturally read you both as such. Of course, Xzavier flipped town. That doesn't change the fact that he appeared scummy and my reasoning was sound. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
He is scumhunting. He thinks Onegu is scum, so he's pursuing that read. You on the other hand, are just asking others to do your scumhunting for you. Please, tell me why any of us(Hurricane, Chroma, Aqua, LoneMeow, and me) have to be scum. I promise I will consider it and I might even change my reads. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 03:53 hzflank wrote: I wanted to give you a chance to look into it yourselves to earn some town cred, but everyone went straight for Onegu, then when that did not get enough support some of you also poked at Spicy. I don't want to make any sort of case yet, because I want to be sure who the case will be against, if and when I make it. So i dont want to walk you through it. I wont be on until the end of the night now. I look forward to your case. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Spicy, Onegu, Alakaslam, and hzflank will vote together no matter what AND Chromatically, Hurricane, Aqua, and I will vote together no matter what. We should work on convincing the two deciding votes at this point. I'm going back to making my defense against Onegu's accusations. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 04:08 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This is an extremely stupid thing to say before the NK. This should be obvious. I am trying to redirect town to focus on convincing people who's opinions can actually be changed. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 04:20 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I think you're wrong, but if you want to direct your posts at two people who have a combined 10 posts in 70+ hours of the game, you're wasting your time. You should be making arguments that make valid cases on legitimate scum reads, not trying to tailor evidence to secure specific votes. Fair enough. I think I have already made a valid case on Onegu. I can perhaps look into his filter to see if I can catch anything I didn't see the first read through. I'll save my vote targeting evidence for daytime. On a another note, I am glad that you have not declared you allegiance with our ragtag team of bandwagoners. We need doubt and constant questioning to keep us on our toes. You are the only one who is active and hasn't take. A specific side, and I admire that. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 04:26 Chromatically wrote: I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again. There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake. I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again. Point taken. I won't be doing it again, that I can promise. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 04:34 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I didn't think of this. I will be re-evaluating my thoughts on this matter in light of new information. I think the distinguishing factor is intent. What intention would a scum Tofu have to save Aquanim? The only possible scenario I see is if Aqua and I are both scum and I was desperately trying to get the vote off him by lying. If you adhere to that belief, you have a case against me. But otherwise, I don't think you can hold it against me. In the context of my lie, aqua and I being different alignments is incompatible. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
P.S I think I just made a better case against myself than anyone has so far in this game. Not sure if this was a wise decision, but we shall see. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 05:13 geript wrote: Friendly neighbor hood reminder to send in your actions and such Night 1 actions must be sent in by [unparsable timestamp format] Night 1 ends in [unparsable timestamp format] Can actions sent in be changed as long as they are resubmitted before the deadline? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote: Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also. His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS. Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia. As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment. But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam. But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more... So you agree with almost everything? You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast? But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had. It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not. Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant. Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space. So you are happy at first with my statement what changed? So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY? Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it. This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also. If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying. Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game. You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum. Here is the post accusing me of everything and anything Onegu could get his hands on. Although I have addressed nearly all of his points in various posts, I will condense it and address each one in detail here so that you only have at one place to read all of it. Onegu and Spicy's Point 1: FirmTofu made a scummy first post that detracted from the quality of the thread. My Defense: If anything, I made some good cases against people who had already talked based on what I knew at the time. Look at the other posts in the first few hours of day 1. Are any of those similarly fluffy? Is mine somehow more filled with fluff than any of those? Honestly, at that point, what do you expect me to say? Onegu and Spicy's Point 2: FirmTofu doesn't want us to discuss metagaming and is therefore scummy. My Defense: I don't want to discuss metagaming because I am philosophically against it. If you look at any of my other games, I have not once discussed previous games to influence the ongoing one(Oh, the irony is strong with me). Onegu and Spicy's Point 3: FirmTofu voted fyfy instead of StiMaDDict who had posted once in the thread. Voting someone who hasn't talked(fyfy) when you see that there is someone who has talked(StiM but has lurked is scummy because StiM actually has a chance of responding. My Defense: I voted fyfy because he hadn't posted. I wanted him to post. I also wanted StiM to post, in fact, I told everyone to keep an eye on him. The only reason I didn't vote StiM as well is because I can't actually vote twice. To say it is scummy to vote for one guy who I thought was scummy instead of the other guy I thought was scummy is ignorant. I would have voted for both if I could have. Onegu and Spicy's Point 3: FirmTofu agreed with hzflank's theory that Aqua and Chromatically were secretly working together, but then quickly backpedaled and said he didn't think it was likely. My Defense: I didn't backpedal. I articulated my thoughts on the matter through a series of posts. My statement was that hzflank's theory was plausible, but unlikely. I never deviated from that line of reasoning. My first post says that I almost agree with all of his reasoning because I knew it was a possible scenario. My later posts explain that even though it is possible, it's very unlikely to be true. Even hzflank admitted later that his theory wasn't likely to be true. Was he backpedaling too, why do you think he is free of blame? Onegu and Spicy's Point 4: FirmTofu blasted Onegu about the fact that he didn't get on the Xzavier lynch and instead voted for Alakslam, but now FirmTofu is still accusing Onegu as scum when he didn't vote for town-flipped Xzavier. My Defense: You are taking the situation out of context and making it sound like I had the same beliefs at both times. Pre-lynch, I was under the assumption that Xzavier would flip mafia, therefore I thought you were mafia for avoiding lynching him. It looked like you were trying to save your mafia buddy, so I called you out on that. Post-lynch, circumstances changed. As I have explained numerous times, your actions of voting Alakslam (to make yourself appear as though you are town by not voting Xzavier who you know is town) and your statement of apathy is what convinced me that you are scum. Onegu and Spicy's Point 5: FirmTofu lied to Hurricane to get Hurricane to vote for Xzavier. My Defense: I lied to ensure that Aquanim would not get lynched. If you recall correctly, my first choice lynch was actually Spicy and the only reason I ever switched to Xzavier was because no one was backing me up and my vote was essentially useless. I agreed many town members that Xzavier was scummy based on numerous points, so I decided he would be a decent person to lynch and get some information on. Remember, I had to defer to a sub-optimal lynch! All the other points don't amount to much and just aim to hurt my town cred. If there is anything specific I haven't addressed, please let me know. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I say we capitalize on this opportunity and throw out a bunch of scum reads so that, no matter who dies tonight, we will have a plethora of information at our disposal to work with on Day 2. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 07:21 Spicydinosaur wrote: Why the hell are you saying onegu and me when i didnt even raise some of these points against you? I have never said anything on 3 and 4. Your constant manipulation to try to lump us together is absurd. As is the way you misconstrue or even ignore my other against you. Here is where you tried to lump xzavier and i together because he wouldnt vote for me. Please respond to what i posted in reply that you completely ignored. Pure manipulation at its finest. Here is what i wrote about his fyfy vote and i never claimed it was scummy, just bothering me. Also in regards to your point 2: Your refusal to look at meta narrows your evidence. That is a fact. You can argue how useful it could be. But when you say that im overly defensive and its scummy... but it could be explained by personality, and you wont look at meta, which would BACK UP the personality, you refuse. That is just unwillingness to look at evidence. Last question for you tofu... Why didnt you come forward to the town after your lie to explain what you did? why did u hide it if you are town? Sorry for lumping you together. I assumed that you both shared similar concerns and I wanted to address them all in one post. Apparently, I was wrong to think that. Please see bolded in quote. What exactly did I completely ignore? If you can quote it, I will respond to it. I don't think I missed anything. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 07:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I'm starting to think that you two don't like each other very much. It's really just him tunneling me because I tunneled him hard Day 1. Personally, I don't blame him. Anyway, he isn't even my strongest scum read at this point, so I'd rather not get on his bad side for now. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 07:42 Spicydinosaur wrote: For the 3rd time quoting... THIS. There is no way you didnt see that in the previous posting. _____________________________________________________________________ The two people who have the most votes are xzavier and aqua. If xzavier wanted to stay alive then he would keep his vote on aqua, otherwise his own chance of being lynched goes up if he takes it off. The fact that he's willing to take his vote OFF of the other major lynch candidate and onto another he thinks is scummy shows that he is scum hunting a little. Though were his vote ultimately ends up is the real indicator. I also dont get how him not voting for me makes him scummier now. No one else in the thread bought your argument against me, yet Xzavier is the only one to receive your wrath for doing so? It looks like you are trying to make arbitrary reasonings to reinforce your vote like you did with me. ________________________________________________________________________ That's because I've addressed this plenty of times. Xzavier was a sub-optimal lynch for me. That is, I was reading the thread and being convinced by various people that he was a good candidate to lynch. At the time, I thought you were scum, so I interpreted Xzavier's actions as a defense of you. Obviously, I was wrong; however, my reasoning was a perfectly plausible explanation. Xzavier could have been scum and chose not to vote you because he was your teammate. Even if my suspicions were wrong, I don't see how it makes me appear scummy. Town makes mistakes too, the key is to admit them and correct them. tl;dr: I was wrong, but I'm not scum. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I agree with Hurricane in that I would really like to see some of your other scumreads. I no longer have you pegged at the top of my scum list, so any input you give me will be taken into account. I would really appreciate if we could manage a civil discussion that doesn't constantly revolve around me. Notice how, I have been providing my inputs on numerous people but you have only really talked about me. We need to discuss more people to give town the biggest advantage it can get going into day 2. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Unfortunately, I couldn't finish my huge post on reads, so this will be an abbreviated version. My biggest scum read is Onegu because of his reaction to the lynch and and apathy bit. Coming in at number 2 is Alakaslam, who Onegu chose to vote randomly when it was obvious that Xzavier would be lynched. There are also a lot of conversations I've had with him that make me suspicious. Tied at 3rd are SpicyDinosaur and hzflank. SpicyDinosaur had peculiar behavior throughout day 1, causing me to make a case for him. He also used a similar tactic as Onegu to dissociate himself from the lynch. Hzflank was initially a town read for me, but jumped up the list because of how weak his reasoning was during this night. I feel like he is deliberately playing dumb to appear as though he can just ignore what everyone else is saying and avoid the Onegu lynch. LoneMeow and StiM are null reads because I have very little to go off and I am not willing to pass judgement upon them at this time. I'm not sure I should be posting town reads at this juncture but I think most of the rest of you know where I stand. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
With no sk, doesn't mafia get +1? I'm not sure how balancing works on these forums. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 11:06 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Spicy is town. This is a winnable game. It's super bad luck that our best role happened to be our most skilled player (easily drawing the mafia shot), but the game is close to being figured out. I guess I'll start the wagon, if no one objects. ##Vote: Onegu Agreed. Let's go. ##Vote: Onegu | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 11:10 Hurricane Sponge wrote: @FirmTofu Don't solicit votes this time. I want to see people's instincts. As do I. I'm waiting, just as you are. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
![]() | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 11:12 Aquanim wrote: As far as I can tell, your entire town read on Spicy is based on Chromatically being the shot rather than you. As you said, he was in general the best shot. I don't see how this argument makes sense at all. I'm going to need an actual case from you on Onegu, including a reply to my comments about him here before I take your vote seriously. For that matter, I'd like to see your opinion on my comments on Spicy, too. If we start a "wagon of justice" on Onegu, ride it all day, and he flips town, we're pretty screwed. I'd like to at least discuss other options. Aqua, Chromatically and I have made the case for Onegu's lynch extremely clear. Please read our respective filters for more information. I wouldn't expect Hurricane to be the one to justify the wagon to you. You can just see that confirmed town flip Parity Cop Chromatically wanted him dead. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 11:18 Aquanim wrote: For the moment: ##Vote: StiMaDDict This is no more nor less than a pressure vote, which is something I don't normally do, but we badly, badly need StiMaDDict to get in here and play the game seriously. If nothing else, I refuse to let him win by playing like this if he's scum. I will continue to assess Onegu and Spicy (as well as other vague reads). Disturbing thought: If we mislynch and StiMaDDict (or any other townie) is modkilled we lose the game. Immediately. Don't edit any posts guys ![]() A perfectly valid decision. Unlike Spicy and Onegu I will not accuse you of being scum because you voted StiM instead of LoneMeow. God, that argument was such a waste of time. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 11:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Wow. Aqua might have been scum all along. This looks like a desperate vote to try to get ME SPECIFICALLY to pull off the onegu wagon. Going to revisit all the Aqua heat. Anyone care to update their case on him? I'd rather first make a convincing case for Onegu being mafia, and see his reponse. We can form a case on Aqua based on that. @Aqua I will try and make the case that Onegu cannot be town to convince you. It'll take some time, so be patient. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 18:25 Onegu wrote: My strongest read to flip scum is firmtofu, he has lied and bullied to get his vote on someone he said wasnt likely to flip scum. That has got to be the worst interpretation of my actions I have ever read. My lie was told to Hurricane to save Aquanim from a lynch. My "bullying"(I don't even agree with this term) was so Alakaslam would vote for you. When did I say you were not likely to flip scum, exactly? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Point #1: Onegu seems to be looking for reasons to vote me that he doesn't necessarily even agree with. Example: Onegu initially states that meta is bad and you should "stop trying to meta peoples play." On June 24 2013 16:10 Onegu wrote: Ok guys meta on peoples play you shold have played with that person at least 5 times, as this is impossible please stop trying to meta peoples play. It is ok to infer somethings on game setup, but people are still learning thier playstyle in a newbie game so you cannot base a scum read on meta play in noob games... Then, when he wants to make a case against me, he uses my failure to use meta as an excuse to call me scummy. On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote: Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia. It seems like Onegu has differing views on meta depending on when it is convenient for him to think one way or another. Point #2: Onegu switched his vote from Aquanim to Alakaslam rather arbitrarily, suggesting that he knew Aquanim would flip town and everyone would blame him, so he moved to his "second best" scum read. Example: Here we see Onegu buiding a case for Aquanim and establishing that he believes Alakaslam is "noob scum" and is a lower priority lynch to Aquanim. I have bolded all relevant areas. On June 25 2013 16:58 Onegu wrote: If I have 2 scum reads I am going to vote for the one that is the biggest threat to town. And the reason I think he is scum is he posts only fluff offers no posts to help town and offers no reads on anyone at all. The only thing he has said is spicy and onegu defend yourself. Then he dissapears, I feel this is super noob scum play but in no way is dangerous to town, on the other hand aqua has posted dangerous even harmful ideas toward town. Then, as soon as he is pressured, he backs away from Aquanim. CONTEXT! At this point, removing his vote caused the tiebreak scenario between the lynch of Xzavier and the lynch of Aquanim to be lifted. In essence, this move sealed Xzavier's fate and saved Aquanim from being a probable lynch. This ensured that Onegu would not look suspicious post-lynch because he wouldn't be responsible for the death of a townie. On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote: Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE ##: VOTE ALAKASLAM But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. Point #3: Onegu was wanted to lynch Aquanim if Xzavier flipped town, but post-lynch, he didn't even pursue Aquanim at all. (See last quoted post) The most critical part of this post lies in the last sentence. What changed? Why did he give up on Aquanim? Nearly all of Onegu's case for me relies on events that happened prior to this post. There is absolutely no reason for him to suddenly switch his vbest scum read from Aquanim to me. A townie in this position after Xzavier's flip as town would pursue Aquanim to no end. The only explanation here is that Onegu is scum, and he sees me as a greater threat to his mafia team than Aquanim. Point #4: Onegu declared his apathy to both the Xzavier and Aquanim lynches shortly thereafter with no developments other than his case for Alakaslam. On June 26 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote: To be honest I dont care who is killed if Xzavier flips town my vote will go on aquanim and if he flips scum I will vote Spicydinosaur. My current read on Xzavier is null with scum reads on alakaslam and aqua. With every post Alakaslam makes he looks more and more like noob scum to me. Note: He reiterates that if Xzavier flips town, Onegu's vote will go to Aquanim. This is further evidence for Point #2 and is also indicative that Onegu still has not shifted his suspicions onto me. He says he has scum reads on Alakaslam and Aqua, but doesn't vote for Aqua who was the only one likely to be lynched that day. The scum reasoning behind this is that he doesn't want to be suspected post lynch(Point #2). A townie would be willing to push their second best scum read(Aquanim) if he was the only scum read that was even on the table. Only scum would try and pretend as though Alakaslam was a viable option. Elaboration on why apathy is a problem: Onegu's apathy towards the lynch on day 1 is a clear scum tell. An honest townie, in his position, would never have switched from voting Aquanim to voting Alakaslam. Even if the townie thought Aquanim was a sub-optimal lynch, he would have been willing to pursue it was the lynch that was even remotely likely to go through that he agreed with. However, scum Onegu was obviously apathetic about the lynch because he knew that, no matter what, a townie would die. Therefore, to clear himself of blame, he quickly got off the wagon he was currently on and allowed the other wagon to take precedence. This way, no one could accuse him of being the reason for getting a townie killed. It was a brilliant move, until of course, he was honest about his true intentions. Point #5: Onegu's entire case against me is a scummy OMGUS that only serves to maim my authority and credibility. The only thing that happened right after post-lynch was that Chromatically and I drafted up separate cases against Onegu. Nothing else changed. There was absolutely no reason for Onegu to change his scum read of Aquanim to suddenly attack me. Here is his case for reference. + Show Spoiler + On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote: Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also. His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS. Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia. As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment. But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam. But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more... So you agree with almost everything? You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast? But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had. It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not. Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant. Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space. So you are happy at first with my statement what changed? So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY? Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it. This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also. If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying. Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game. You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum. Nearly all of his points refer to supposed "scum-tells" that occurred pre-lynch. If he thought those were scum-tells, why didn't he bother to bring it up when it actually mattered? Why did he conveniently start to think I was scummy RIGHT AFTER I accused him? The only explanation for this sort of behavior is that he doesn't actually think I am scummy, he is just looking for reasons to convince others to think I am scummy so no one will vote him. TL;DR: Please, don't take shortcuts reading this if you are town. I took a great deal of time to compile this and it is the best possible case against Onegu I could ever make. Skimming is not going to cut it. If you actually read this entire thing and don't agree that Onegu is at least a little scummy,without giving any valid reasoning, I am just going to assume you are scum. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 20:43 FirmTofu wrote: Elaboration on why apathy is a problem: Onegu's apathy towards the lynch on day 1 is a clear scum tell. An honest townie, in his position, would never have switched from voting Aquanim to voting Alakaslam. Even if the townie thought Aquanim was a sub-optimal lynch, he would have been willing to pursue because it was the only lynch that was even remotely likely to go through that he agreed with. Bolded parts are added words. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
After looking over my case on Onegu, what are your thoughts on him? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 22:39 Aquanim wrote: Still mulling over your case FirmTofu. I would like to see Onegu's reply before making my comments. A few things to be wary of: Onegu is probably shitting his pants right now along with his scum team, who are currently trying to come up with the best plan that minimizes their losses. You need to hold Onegu accountable not only for his response, but also the time he takes to formulate one. The longer he takes, the more indicative it is that he is scum. I apologize for all the grammatical and spelling mistakes in my case against Onegu btw, I was really tired when I wrote that. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 27 2013 23:58 Aquanim wrote: I don't think you should ever try to judge someone's alignment based on how slowly they reply to you (within reason, of course <stares at StiMaDDict again>). You never know whether real life interfered, or they just needed to think about it for a while, or anything else. Just be aware that time is a constraint and you may not want to hold off on conveying your opinions about Onegu until the last minute just because he hasn't replied to defend himself. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 00:11 Spicydinosaur wrote: Got a question on point 3: How do you pressure someone during a night cycle? Did you want him to make a new case on him? What were you expecting him to post? If he was sincere about his sentiment to vote aqua because of the way the lynch goes, then i would expect a case today or a damn good reason why he is backing off of that. Town has to maximize the night cycle to throw out all of their best scumreads so that in the event that they die, town will have the maximum possible information to work with from a sincere individual. If Onegu was town, he would have tunneled Aquanim instead of using an OMGUS tactic to discredit me. He, as town, should have already been convinced that Aqua was scum because of his statements the previous day that if Xzavier flipped town, Aqua was scum. Even though I accused him of being mafia, a town-focused Onegu would still consider Aquanim his best scumread instead of shifting attention onto me based on a flimsy case that relies on Day 1 reads that he could have just as easily made on Day 1 itself. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 00:57 Onegu wrote: Not me you said Xzavier wasnt likely to flip scum. And what you did is bullying, telling some one to do something and if they dont you will label them scum and get them lynched is bullying. No I didn't. Please quote where I said Xzavier wasn't likely to flip scum. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 01:08 FirmTofu wrote: No I didn't. Please quote where I said Xzavier wasn't likely to flip scum. I said Xzavier wasn't the MOST likely. I never said he wasn't likely. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 01:15 Onegu wrote: And youmsay you hoped they lie wouldnt be caught. You case on me is based only on my apathy and that isnt a scum tell, my case on you is legit. I will leave it to town to decide which case is better. Townies, thoughts please? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 01:21 Onegu wrote: Wow very nice I was at the hospital, go read my blog I am disabled and my son is disabled so sometimes I have to take him or mymyself to the hospital, so the time it takes for me to respond is in no way a scum tell. Really people have lives besides mafia so how long it takes for someone to respond is in no way a scum tell stop makeing up scum tells to push your lynches. I didn't say it was a scum tell, I said it was indicative that you are more likely to be scum. You didn't tell us you were going to the hospital, so how am I supposed to know that. I hope your son is okay. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 01:24 Onegu wrote: I made a case on Aqua during the night, after I made it I went through your filter and made a case on you. I have in no way stopped on aqua, aqua even says during day 2 that I am tunneling him... Tunneling entails pushing for the lynch, not just criticizing his activities. Regardless, I suspect that you would be apathetic to a lynch between me or Aquanim, am I right? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 03:39 Spicydinosaur wrote: Really? You are probably the only person in the thread besides stim who hasn't seen tofu and i going at each other. As i said my my night post that you, stim, onegu, and alakaslam are who im looking at. I want to see more people posting today so i can narrow down a vote for tomorrow. I would just like to say that I have moved you and Alakaslam onto my town list. I will expand on this during night. Right now, I want to focus on getting the lynch on Onegu through. I sincerely hope we can count on your vote. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
By the process of elimination, it cannot be Alakaslam, me, or Aquanim because he has stated his suspicions for all of us. It cannot be LoneMeow or StiM because a lurker cannot be rational person's strongest town read. It probably isn't Hurricane because Hurricane is currently pushing a strong case against him. The only players left are Spicy and hzflank. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
He refuses to say which of the two, but it is very easy to narrow down for any observer. What purpose did it serve to keep town in the dark? Either hzflank or Spicy needs to confirm what Onegu is saying about them, otherwise an Onegu lynch remains inevitable. Even if hzflank or Spicy confirm, we have to consider that they may be in a mafia team together. We will need to gather evidence for and against this and analyze it with the information we have at our disposal. It could also be the case that Onegu is a mafia tracker who tracked a town hzflank or Spicy to Alakaslam's house. We would also have to find evidence to refute this possibility. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I'm only stating the obvious. Any mafia team could easily deduce the same conclusion. We shouldn't be silent just because you think a mafia team might use our reasoning against us. We need to be talking and analyzing this claim. Lets go!!! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:41 Aquanim wrote: By the way, FirmTofu, my reply to your case is a little redundant now that Onegu has claimed - do you still want to see it? Nothing is redundant. Please show it. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:51 Spicydinosaur wrote: Kinda hypocritical of you right there? More information is better for town. No, not hypocritical. Telling you why you are a town read for me serves to purpose except to derail the thread into a tangent about you. I had one purpose back when I said that, and that was to push my biggest scum read (Onegu). On the other hand, when Onegu keeps is in the dark here, scum is the only party that gains an advantage. He can't just claim, run off to bed without clarifying his night actions, and expect to get off scot-free. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:57 Aquanim wrote: Here it is. + Show Spoiler + I'll go through FirmTofu's case point by point. + Show Spoiler + On June 27 2013 20:43 FirmTofu wrote: FirmTofu's Case Against Onegu Point #1: Onegu seems to be looking for reasons to vote me that he doesn't necessarily even agree with. Example: Onegu initially states that meta is bad and you should "stop trying to meta peoples play." Then, when he wants to make a case against me, he uses my failure to use meta as an excuse to call me scummy. It seems like Onegu has differing views on meta depending on when it is convenient for him to think one way or another. Inconsistency can be a sign that a player is not seriously analysing the thread, which reflects a scum-mentality. However, I don't think Onegu is being inconsistent with his views on meta here. The first of Onegu's posts quoted here is saying that Onegu thinks that we should not use meta. This post isn't particularly useful but not all posts are. The second of Onegu's posts is observing that FirmTofu's post (which also states that we shouldn't use meta) does not contain a particularly good reason for not using meta. And to be honest, I partially agree with him. While it's a legitimate view for FirmTofu to hold, just because something is "boring" doesn't mean it's a bad idea. Onegu's post does NOT say that he disagrees with FirmTofu about whether meta should be used, only with the argument which FirmTofu used. Summary: I see no contradiction here. In fact, observing that someone whose opinion you agree with has nevertheless justified that opinion poorly indicates a reasonable level of analysis to me. + Show Spoiler + Point #2: Onegu switched his vote from Aquanim to Alakaslam rather arbitrarily, suggesting that he knew Aquanim would flip town and everyone would blame him, so he moved to his "second best" scum read. Example: Here we see Onegu buiding a case for Aquanim and establishing that he believes Alakaslam is "noob scum" and is a lower priority lynch to Aquanim. I have bolded all relevant areas. Then, as soon as he is pressured, he backs away from Aquanim. CONTEXT! At this point, removing his vote caused the tiebreak scenario between the lynch of Xzavier and the lynch of Aquanim to be lifted. In essence, this move sealed Xzavier's fate and saved Aquanim from being a probable lynch. This ensured that Onegu would not look suspicious post-lynch because he wouldn't be responsible for the death of a townie. The explanation that Onegu jumped from voting me to Alakaslam because he didn't want to take responsibility for my lynch is plausible. However, I also think it's plausible that Onegu, as town, reassessed his case on me and found that it was weaker than his case on Alakaslam, which is indeed how he justified it: On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote: ... Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE ##: VOTE ALAKASLAM ... But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. I think this is an entirely reasonable town reaction. He realises that the case he's not voting is the stronger one for as long as he doesn't know Xzavier's alignment, and so he switches to it. Obviously, knowing the alignment of Xzavier could change his reads - a lot of the play in day 1 centred around Xzavier, knowing his alignment is obviously going to give you a lot of context for your reads. Making decisions conditional on which way somebody flips isn't something which I think would come naturally to scum. + Show Spoiler + Point #3: Onegu was wanted to lynch Aquanim if Xzavier flipped town, but post-lynch, he didn't even pursue Aquanim at all. (See last quoted post) The most critical part of this post lies in the last sentence. What changed? Why did he give up on Aquanim? Nearly all of Onegu's case for me relies on events that happened prior to this post. There is absolutely no reason for him to suddenly switch his vbest scum read from Aquanim to me. A townie in this position after Xzavier's flip as town would pursue Aquanim to no end. The only explanation here is that Onegu is scum, and he sees me as a greater threat to his mafia team than Aquanim. I distinctly recall him making a case on me after the lynch. He chose to pursue you as his primary target, but he still has me on his scum list. I don't see how partially changing his mind makes Onegu scum. In fact, flexibility in changing one's reads as you get more information about your targets is a clear town sign. + Show Spoiler + Point #4: Onegu declared his apathy to both the Xzavier and Aquanim lynches shortly thereafter with no developments other than his case for Alakaslam. Note: He reiterates that if Xzavier flips town, Onegu's vote will go to Aquanim. This is further evidence for Point #2 and is also indicative that Onegu still has not shifted his suspicions onto me. He says he has scum reads on Alakaslam and Aqua, but doesn't vote for Aqua who was the only one likely to be lynched that day. The scum reasoning behind this is that he doesn't want to be suspected post lynch(Point #2). A townie would be willing to push their second best scum read(Aquanim) if he was the only scum read that was even on the table. Only scum would try and pretend as though Alakaslam was a viable option. Elaboration on why apathy is a problem: Onegu's apathy towards the lynch on day 1 is a clear scum tell. An honest townie, in his position, would never have switched from voting Aquanim to voting Alakaslam. Even if the townie thought Aquanim was a sub-optimal lynch, he would have been willing to pursue it was the lynch that was even remotely likely to go through that he agreed with. However, scum Onegu was obviously apathetic about the lynch because he knew that, no matter what, a townie would die. Therefore, to clear himself of blame, he quickly got off the wagon he was currently on and allowed the other wagon to take precedence. This way, no one could accuse him of being the reason for getting a townie killed. It was a brilliant move, until of course, he was honest about his true intentions. This is a plausible reason why a scum Onegu would do this. However, there is a reasonable town explanation, and it's quite simple. Onegu thought that Alakaslam was more likely to flip scum than either myself or Xzavier. I admit that Onegu did not raise hell to convince other players to switch to Alakaslam. However, he did in fact make a case on Alakaslam, so it's not like he didn't apply any effort at all to convincing us. This raises the question of "Could Onegu have reasonably believed that Alakaslam was more likely to be scum?". I believe the answer to this question is yes. His case on Alakaslam is basically "Alakaslam has posted nothing of worth when there was plenty of worth that could have been said", which is pretty much all you can actually say about Alakaslam. This is a pretty decent reason for thinking Alakaslam was scum, as opposed to his case on me (which never made any sense). Actually saying that "I don't care who is killed" is a pretty impressive slip of the tongue. However, I don't think it's entirely implausible that a town Onegu could be largely apathetic as to which of his null-to-scum reads is lynched, given that he doesn't think his main read Alakaslam is going to get lynched. He tried to convince the thread to lynch his main suspect, Alakaslam - when that failed, he was justifiably not hugely invested in the lynch. Towards the end of the day, the Xzavier wagon was clearly leading. (In fact, the only two votes on me at the end IIRC were Xzavier himself and StiMaDDict.) Jumping on my wagon again would have been absolutely futile, and since he didn't think that Xzavier was scum obviously he wouldn't jump on that one either. Staying on Alakaslam was a REASONABLE thing for a townie to do in Onegu's position. Sure, it would have been better to argue even more for an Alakaslam lynch, but not everybody has the backbone to stare down the rest of the thread over a read nobody else shares. + Show Spoiler + Point #5: Onegu's entire case against me is a scummy OMGUS that only serves to maim my authority and credibility. The only thing that happened right after post-lynch was that Chromatically and I drafted up separate cases against Onegu. Nothing else changed. There was absolutely no reason for Onegu to change his scum read of Aquanim to suddenly attack me. Here is his case for reference. + Show Spoiler + On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote: Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also. His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS. Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia. As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment. But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam. But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more... So you agree with almost everything? You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast? But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had. It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not. Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant. Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space. So you are happy at first with my statement what changed? So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY? Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it. This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also. If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying. Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game. You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum. Nearly all of his points refer to supposed "scum-tells" that occurred pre-lynch. If he thought those were scum-tells, why didn't he bother to bring it up when it actually mattered? Why did he conveniently start to think I was scummy RIGHT AFTER I accused him? The only explanation for this sort of behavior is that he doesn't actually think I am scummy, he is just looking for reasons to convince others to think I am scummy so no one will vote him. Are you seriously trying to tell me that there is something scummy about rereading day 1, with the retrospective knowledge of who got lynched, and drawing new conclusions based on that? I guess that makes me scum then... and you... and everybody else in this game (with the possible exception of StiMaDDict). I'd also like to tell a little story here. Imagine you are a townie named Q, making scumreads and generally playing the game. Suddenly one of your scumreads says to someone else: "Vote Q or I'll assume that you're both scum and lynch you!". What is your reaction to that going to be? While I personally don't think that that statement makes FirmTofu scum (if only because it would be way, way too stupid) I'm not even suprised that Onegu went apeshit over it. I probably would have, in his position. Summary: It's a nice little case FirmTofu has built up here, I believe that he believes it, and I think he's townier as a result... but he's wrong. None of this makes Onegu scum, and a fair bit of it in fact makes me think that Onegu is town. Why Onegu is town He's looking for scum. No, really... In this game, Onegu is suspicious of a lot of people, I might even say paranoid. Most of his posts are talking directly about why another player is scum. Staying on-point with this approach to the game strongly indicates to me that his goal in the game is in fact to find scum. + Show Spoiler [meta] + In the last game, where he was scum, Onegu was MUCH less direct about his suspicions and his posts generally contained a lot more fluff. In my view his suspicions this game have been both consistent and flexible, both marks of a town-y thought process directing them. Consistent in that he hasn't suddenly changed his mind about anything without justifying it, and Flexible in that he has in fact changed his mind when new evidence presents itself. Looking at a player's overall attitude to the game is in my mind a far more reliable approach than focusing on individual scummy things they did. (Learned through painful past experience of mislynching townies who made dire mistakes.) I don't really agree with you on a lot of points, but I can't see you deriving this up as scum. Thanks for all the input. The problem remains that no matter what, Onegu still has the best case against him by any player. Unless you have a stronger scum read and you can make a case for his lynch, you may have to lynch sub optimally. Consider the situation where you are wrong about Onegu. Scum will likely bandwagon whoever you choose to lynch as long as it isn't one of their teammates because they want to save Onegu. Be watchful of any bandwagons that form conveniently quickly on your scum reads. Also, I hope you have drafted a potential mafia team of 3 people . If Onegu isn't mafia, which 3 people are most likely to be on a team together? Are their voting patterns today indicative of their partnership? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Are you not even willing to consider that Onegu may have lied about his claim? Are we just going to throw away all of the scum reads that we have built up over the course of the thread because of one claim that hasn't even been verified? I still don't see how this claim exonerates Onegu from a lynch when any scum could have easily pulled it off. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 10:09 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I seem to be the only one defending Alakaslam. At this point, I'm willing to consider that my read is wrong. Reading through his filter, I just seem to get the over-eager vibe from a guy who's really new to (and maybe not suited for) this game. I'm not in the business of defending people when they should be defending themselves, but I honestly don't think he has the ability to capably defend himself. His first reaction when pressured was to throw in the towel and martyr'd hard: Alakaslam, can you clear up this post for me? The bolded phrase in particular. Just wanted to pop in to say I agree with your sentiments on Alakaslam, especially if Onegu is sincere town. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
We have 9 players alive. I know I am town. I am convinced Hurricane and Aquanim are town and am assuming that Onegu is town. That leaves 5 players with 2 scum roles between them. hzflank Alakaslam LoneMeow StiMaDDict SpicyDinosaur For me, hzflank leans town. He has been making waves in Day 1 by posting an epic conspiracy theory accusing 2 of the most active players of being mafia. He was willing to back down in the face of reason, which is another town-tell. Alakaslam also leans town for me. Under the assumption that Onegu is town, I see no reason to believe that he is scum at all. Yeah, he posts a lot of fluff, but most of it is just easy town cred that both town and scum would want to do. He also repeatedly asks to be lynched if people are thinking he looks scummy to them. I don't see this as scum playto be at all. LoneMeow and StiMaDDict are null reads. I have to have a look through each of their respective filters to get an idea, but if Onegu is sincere town, then I would have to subscribe to the belief that at least one of these have to be scum. By the process of elimination, I do think that Spicy will have to be scum if Onegu is sincere town. Now, I don't want him to go batshit insane because I said this. Like I said before, I still think Onegu is lying about his claim, and if that is true, I don't think Spicy is at the top of my scum list at all. If anyone wants to know why I think Spicy comes off the worst if Onegu flips town, I may try to form a case around him once again. However, I am reluctant to do so because my read on him is reliant on the belief that Onegu is sincere town. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 11:08 FirmTofu wrote: Assuming Onegu is sincere town and my confirmed town reads are correct, I will employ the process of elimination to guess who the scum team might be. We have 9 players alive. I know I am town. I am convinced Hurricane and Aquanim are town and am assuming that Onegu is town. That leaves 5 players with 2 scum roles between them. hzflank Alakaslam LoneMeow StiMaDDict SpicyDinosaur For me, hzflank leans town. He has been making waves in Day 1 by posting an epic conspiracy theory accusing 2 of the most active players of being mafia. He was willing to back down in the face of reason, which is another town-tell. Alakaslam also leans town for me. Under the assumption that Onegu is town, I see no reason to believe that he is scum at all. Yeah, he posts a lot of fluff, but most of it is just easy town cred that both town and scum would want to do. He also repeatedly asks to be lynched if people are thinking he looks scummy to them. I don't see this as scum playto be at all. LoneMeow and StiMaDDict are null reads. I have to have a look through each of their respective filters to get an idea, but if Onegu is sincere town, then I would have to subscribe to the belief that at least one of these have to be scum. By the process of elimination, I do think that Spicy will have to be scum if Onegu is sincere town. Now, I don't want him to go batshit insane because I said this. Like I said before, I still think Onegu is lying about his claim, and if that is true, I don't think Spicy is at the top of my scum list at all. If anyone wants to know why I think Spicy comes off the worst if Onegu flips town, I may try to form a case around him once again. However, I am reluctant to do so because my read on him is reliant on the belief that Onegu is sincere town. Sorry, I meant to say "3 scum roles between them". The only one of the 5 that I will not vote for is hzflank, unless someone makes a really good case around him. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
My most optimal lynch would be Onegu. However, if town comes to a near unanimous conclusion that Onegu is sincere town, I will defer to a lynch of Spicy. If Spicy does not gain traction, I may be willing to support a lynch of StiM or LoneMeow. I have just read both of their filters and I think LoneMeow is slightly more likely to flip scum, but honestly it's a coin flip. Finally, if the people I think of as confirmed town want to lynch Alakaslam, I may consider it. I really would prefer not to vote him at this juncture. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 14:06 Onegu wrote: Ok sorry I am here, the reason I posted it before I slept last night is I wanted to get the information out there. After thinking about it I knew I wouldnt have much time today to post so I thought that was the best time because right after I sleep the thread starts to get active. I womt post why I chose to target alakaslam until he responds or until I get back later tonight as I would like to give him sometime. Also no matter what happens I will not tell you who visited him because I am 95% sure he is town. Onegu, you have to tell us why you targeted Alakaslam. It's critical to verifying your claim. I may consider you confirmed town if you give the right answer, so it's your best bet at not being lynched today. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Your points that my case is bad are perfectly valid and you are appearing more and more town to me. Thank you for that. @Alakaslam What exactly are you claiming? Be clear with us. Did you just claim a blue role? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 14:58 Alakaslam wrote: I have no idea if I was visited but Onegu visited Hurricane. Okay. We have a claim of tracker from Alakaslam. Onegu and Alakaslam cannot be on the same team because their claims contradict one another. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Ah yes, he can still be claiming watcher and could have watched Hurricane. Good point. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Onegu claims his "strongest town read" visited Alakaslam. These actions are incompatible. Onegu claims he visited Alakaslam and Alakaslam claims Onegu visited Hurricane. We can deduce that Alakaslam and Onegu are NOT of the same alignment. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:09 hzflank wrote: Firm, slow down and lets think it through. My first point: If Onegu is town then his strongest town read can vouch for him. However, that means we reveal a blue role. The problem with this logic is that you are assuming his strongest town read is town. What if his strongest town read is mafia? In fact, wouldn't it be more likely that his strongest town read was mafia if he himself was mafia? His thought process would be, "I'll claim watcher and my mafia scumbuddy can vouch for me so I don't get lynched today." It all comes down to who you believe. I trust Alakaslam a lot more than I do Onegu. You are welcome to decide for yourself, but I don't think I can be convinced to change my vote at this point. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:15 hzflank wrote: If his strongest read is scum and we mislynch Alakaslam, then we have 2 100% confirmed scum reads. Are you suggesting we risk a mislynch to confirm 2 mafia? I'm not entirely sure if you're being serious. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:18 Onegu wrote: I agree read shouldnt reveal as we dont want them to know all of our blue roles. ##VOTE:ALAKASLAM Just a heads up, but I think you have to unvote me in order to vote again. I'm not entirely sure though. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:22 hzflank wrote: Not risk. If someone claims to have visited Alakaslam last night then either the claimer + Onegu are scum or Alaka is scum. It would be stupid for a scum to make this claim. That would mean we mislych today but then get back to back scum lynches, leaving the town in a very very strong position. It is worth sacrificing 1 town to get 2 scum, if it comes to it. Yeah, but we don't have to sacrifice the townie at all. Lynching Onegu gives us more information than lynching Alakaslam. If Onegu flips town, we lynch Alakaslam. If Onegu flips scum, we lynch his "best town read" If Alakaslam flips town, we lynch Onegu. If Alakaslam flips scum, we are back to square 1. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:28 Alakaslam wrote: Hz, which town do you want to info lynch, assuming the impossible that we both are? If you do not answer people will know you are scum. Hzflank has not said anything that implicates him as scum. Please do not antagonize him further because it will only hurt your case on Onegu. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Lynching Onegu gives us more information than lynching Alakaslam. If Onegu flips town, we lynch Alakaslam. If Onegu flips scum, we lynch his "best town read" If Alakaslam flips town, we lynch Onegu. If Alakaslam flips scum, we are back to square 1. Assuming each event has equal probability, we can rank these outcomes from most preferable to least preferable. (1) Onegu Flips Scum -> We get a strong lead to work with for a lynch on Day 3. By the end of Day 3 we will have 2 scum dead. (2) Alakaslam Flips Scum -> We are back to square one. By the end of Day 2 we will have 1 scum dead (3) Alakaslam Flips Town -> We get confirmed scum Onegu lynched on Day 3. By the end of Day 4 we will have 2 scum dead, but will have lost one town member. (4) Onegu Flips Town -> We get confirmed scum Alakaslam lynched on Day 3. By the end of Day 3, we will have 1 scum dead but will have lost one town member. Our choices are to either choose the set (1,4) or to choose the set (2,3) As mentioned before, the set (1,4) gives us more information in the long run, so would be a more optimal decision. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:36 jrkirby wrote: ![]() God this game is getting so interesting! I envy you and all the observers >< ESPECIALLY CHROMATICALLY!!!! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Your argument seems to be that a blue claim may come out to save Onegu from a lynch today. I respectfully disagree. Based on current information, a scumbuddy of Onegu's would never come out and guarantee his own demise the following 2 days(along with Onegu's). It is completely irrational. Scum should cut their losses at Onegu and force us to scumhunt to find the last few of them. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:43 FirmTofu wrote: @hzflank Your argument seems to be that a blue claim may come out to save Onegu from a lynch today. I respectfully disagree. Based on current information, a scumbuddy of Onegu's would never come out and guarantee his own demise the following 2 days(along with Onegu's). It is completely irrational. Scum should cut their losses at Onegu and force us to scumhunt to find the last few of them. In the event that a blue claim actually occurs to save Onegu, I will consider it an actual blue and will switch my vote to Alakaslam. Barring that, my vote stays on Onegu. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:45 hzflank wrote: Exactly, therefore the blue claim is more likely to be scum than town. Your above scenarios are correct if it is 50/50. If there is a blue claim I see it as >50% town. Agreed. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:47 hzflank wrote: And if there is no blue claim then Onegu is 100% scum, agreed? I would deem it necessary, yes. Unless the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:51 Alakaslam wrote: Town, this is really important. Listen to tofu and hz. Onegu lynch will (somehow, you still haven't answered how we know who his strongest town read is so that we lynch him when Onegu flips red) lead to info anyway, and stun and meow have lurked so much that surviving a Lylo looks too hard for me to be willing to see town risk it. Man I wish I could put some strength behind my word! Look, if I explained (again- rolleyes) how I broke down into a small little fluffy man, would that help anyone? I believe his "strongest town read" is SpicyDinosaur due to the process of elimination I mentioned before. I will quote it for you if you would like. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote: Parity Cop - is already dead, there won't be more than one Not true. The host has stated that there can be more than one of the same blue role. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:56 Aquanim wrote: Yes, the hosts do state that. There never is in a normal mini. EVER. Trust me on this. Even if there is, I think that a parity cop check on Alakaslam is conceivably worth the claim at this point. I agree that the claim is worth it, but the fact remains that you are deliberately lying. If I recall correctly, I was crucified for this a few pages back. Just saying. (I don't actually think it's bad to lie as town) | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:05 hzflank wrote: It's obvious so I will put this out there. If Onegu is town then I am confident of who his number 1 town read is. I want to see that player posting before any blue claims are made. Ignore this statement if it is irrelevant to yours. Remember that Hurricane pushed for Onegu's lynch. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:06 Aquanim wrote: I am not lying. I have never seen a doubled power-role in a normal mini game, I think that they are a fundamentally bad idea, the play of experienced players in every normal mini I have ever seen implicitly assumes there is only one, I have seen a host laughed at in the Obs QT for saying to the newbies that there might be more than one of a role... I can tell you for a fact that there is at most one of any power role in this game. The past does not necessarily dictate the future. Who knows, geript may be the first revolutionary host who changes the norm so that newbies actually have to be afraid of this possibility in the future. Regardless, this is a rather pointless debate and I am going to drop it starting exactly now. Please do not reply to this post. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:21 Alakaslam wrote: And I am out. It's 12:20, and I am driving a bunch of high schoolers to MLG tomorrow. I have to drop a dude off on LA, and then go down from Anaheim from there. This just went from a comfy phone check during a bath to a full blown phone in bed scenario. I don't want to die irl falling asleep at the wheel and get modkilled now do I? Remember irl everyone but stim, meow, what's the deal. Goodnight. Good night! Have fun at MLG!!! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:32 Aquanim wrote: No, for the same reason I can't imagine you'll unvote Onegu: because we're lynching one or the other and I think I'm voting for scum. Ok, fair enough. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
It seems I am going to have to convince hzflank because Aquanim doesn't look convincable at this point. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Onegu learned that Hurricane visited Alakaslam. This scenario is compatible with Alakaslam's claim that he tracked Onegu who visited Hurricane. Today, Onegu was being pressured hard and wanted to get the pressure off of himself. He decided that the best way would be to claim watcher and say he watched Alakaslam and have his "strongest town read" confirm him. The problem was that Hurricane is the Nosy Neighbor and didn't actually know where he went. That's why Hurricane came into the thread accusing Onegu, not Alakaslam. This establishes that 1) Onegu did not make a bad move as scum. Risky? Sure. Bad? No. 2) Hurricane is innocent. For all those who vote Alakaslam, you must ask yourselves who the other two mafias are. StiM and LoneMeow is a cop out answer. Look at how fast the Alakaslam wagon is rising. I guaruntee that all or most of scum are already on it. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Who do you think Onegu's teammates are if he is scum? Look at the bandwagons because scum will likely pick the same wagon. This question is directed to all town, but I would like hzflank to answer specifically. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 01:20 Spicydinosaur wrote: Stop avoiding me and answer my question about why you changed your mind about me. I'm not avoiding you. Answering you is useless because I have changed my mind once again an I think you are scum. I don't new to tell you why I thought you were town at one point because I no longer think that is the case. I might tell someone who I think is town, but I'm certainly not was in my time answering your questions when we need to be focusing on this lynch. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 01:33 WaveofShadow wrote: I have to confirm but as far as I know he does NOT know who he visits at night. 'Aware of this behaviour' means simply that he knows he is a nosy neighbour. Just as I suspected. Your thoughts, hzflank? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 01:33 Alakaslam wrote: I will be lynched. Oh and how did I know? GG, I have bamcis goodbye post comin If Hurricane votes Onegu again or if hzflank switches his vote back to Onegu, you won't be lynched. Calm down and try to make a case for yourself. Panicking isn't going to help you. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 01:39 FirmTofu wrote: If Hurricane votes Onegu again or if hzflank switches his vote back to Onegu, you won't be lynched. Calm down and try to make a case for yourself. Panicking isn't going to help you. Actually Hurricane is already on it, so we are gonna need to convince hzflank, StiM, or LoneMeow Unfortunately, between StiM and LoneMeow, there is probably 1 scum and I don't know which so we should work on convincing hzflank who I am almost certain is town. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 01:46 Onegu wrote: This doesnt change much, if he is NN it still means he was the only one who could have visited him. But we need to hear fromHurricane first. It explains Hurricane's behavior and why he couldn't trust you. It establishes Hurricane as town and not the mafia framer, which hzflank was worried about. If Hurricane isn't mafia, then there are very few people left that could possibly be on a potential Alakaslam's scum team. 1) Obviously, someone on Alakaslam's scum team wouldn't be voting for Alakaslam at this point, so we can eliminate anyone doing that. Remaining Options: FirmTofu StiMaDDict LoneMeow I know I am town and I think hzflank agrees, so hzflank would have to say that both StiM and LoneMeow are scum in this scenario. This doesn't seem very likely from my point of view. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 01:51 FirmTofu wrote: It explains Hurricane's behavior and why he couldn't trust you. It establishes Hurricane as town and not the mafia framer, which hzflank was worried about. If Hurricane isn't mafia, then there are very few people left that could possibly be on a potential Alakaslam's scum team. 1) Obviously, someone on Alakaslam's scum team wouldn't be voting for Alakaslam at this point, so we can eliminate anyone doing that. Remaining Options: FirmTofu StiMaDDict LoneMeow I know I am town and I think hzflank agrees, so hzflank would have to say that both StiM and LoneMeow are scum in this scenario. This doesn't seem very likely from my point of view. EBWOP: If you subscribe to the belief that Hurricane AND FirmTofu are town but Alakaslam is mafia, then you must believe that StiM and LoneMeow are scum as well. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 01:51 hzflank wrote: You think that I have the deciding vote? Fair enough. ##Unvote Scum, get on board and defend your team mate, because I am not placing my vote until the last second. Thank you. I think you have made the right decision. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 01:58 hzflank wrote: I have not yet made a decision. I have made what I believe is the best play at this time. I cannot make a decision until we hear from Hurricane, Lone and Stim. I do not want my vote to influence their play. I will make my decision once they have made theirs. No, I meant that the decision to unvote and only vote at the last minute was the right decision. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 02:16 Alakaslam wrote: What case do I make? I call again to my initial reaction. Does that seem like a fabricated scenario? I was totally thinking I was agreeing with Onegu, not contradicting him. I was even laughing about green not keeping his eyes off pink! And then what. My slow realization that I was starting a much bigger event... Please explain how my reaction looks calculated at all. Because its not, and it's OMGiS again. At least it may turn out well. Yeah, your reaction SCREAMS town to me. I cannot imagine that a mafia team planned to make you counterclaim and wanted you to deliberately appear flustered. Scum team would want you to appear confident so people would believe you, if anything. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote: Then with this why didnt I claim tracker? Why watcher? With your theory If I claim I tracked hurricane to Alakaslam wouldnt that be the best course of action with no risk? Because claiming tracker would get people to immediately consider the possibility that you are the mafia tracker not the town's tracker. Both claims have equal risk until you realize that claiming watcher is smarter because no one can say that you are actually a mafia watcher. I don't know why I'm telling you this because you have already thought all of this through. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 02:31 Onegu wrote: Also with your case for what reason would scum track hurricane? To see if he was blue. To try and decide whether he would be a good target for the following night. I mean, you are scum, so you tell me. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 02:31 Onegu wrote: Also with your case for what reason would scum track hurricane? Scum would track hurricane to check whether he was a blue role or not. Perhaps they want to know if he would be a good target for the following night. You are scum, so you tell me. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 02:34 Onegu wrote: I am not scum and you brought up the point in your theory, so it was a fair question. Yeah, it's fair. I wasn't denying that. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
First one of those 3 people has to state that Hurricane's role will decide their vote, and then Hurricane can decide whether it is worth it to claim. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Q: Why would scum vote out their own man? A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town. Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 03:36 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I have, haven't you? If we get a alakaslam mislynch, do you not see two immediate Mafia lynches lined up? I do. I am asking what you think the mafia team is if Alakaslam is mafia. Do you think I am mafia if Alakaslam is mafia? If not, who is? I am assuming StiM, but who else? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 03:41 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Ironically, Alakaslam flipping as Mafia gives me the LEAST amount of information regarding endgame scenarios. As far as shaping reads, we'd get the most info from a successful Onegu scum lynch, then roughly equivalent useful information from an Onegu mislynch or a 'Slam mislynch. Lastly, we'd get the least information (but still some) from a successful 'Slam scum lynch. This is exactly my point. If this is your position, then why is your vote currently on Alakaslam? Your actions aren't matching up with your words. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Onegu Scum Lynch Onegu Mislynch=Alakaslam Mislynch Alakaslam Scum Lynch Clearly lynching Onegu gives us more information than Alakaslam, therefore it is the optimal decision. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 03:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: 2. The information we'd gain from an Onegu mislynch is inconsistent with the rest of the game. If you truly believe 2. is true, wouldn't you also have to agree that the Onegu mislynch is unlikely BECAUSE it is inconsistent with the rest of the game? I think the problem is that we see the same issue with the Onegu mislynch, but I attribute it to the fact the Onegu is scum and you are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is town because of it. Of course, you can see it both ways, but I would say that these two scenarios are equally likely and thus should cancel out. You cannot say this inconsistency makes Onegu more likely to be town. I ask you again. If Alakaslam is mafia, who constitutes the rest of his team? What are your reads? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote: Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past. I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia. This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days. If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day. If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day. Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effectno matter which one flips mafia. Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim. Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach). | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Could you maybe take a look at Alakaslam's initial claim and analyze whether his motives are coming from a town's perspective or not? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I figured it out. You want to buy a lottery ticket. I want to buy house insurance. I just don't think the likelihood of a fire is very high, and the odds of winning the lottery are 50/50. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:08 Spicydinosaur wrote: Your assuming he did this with the other's consent. As you pointed out right after, he acts independently. Why would he act independently if he had a mafia team, though? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:14 Hurricane Sponge wrote: But if your lottery ticket is a bust, we're left with nothing. At least with insurance, we can throw a bitchin' fireworks party. Let's just avoid cooking in the damn house, GOD DAMN IT! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Hurricane makes some good points, but they are dependent on the belief that Alakaslam has no obvious scumbuddies. I completely disagree, so I do not share Hurricane's view. Aquanim seems like he is just choosing to lynch Alakaslam because he has a strong town read on Onegu. We will see if this read is justified soon enough. Everyone else on the Alakaslam wagon screams scum to me for numerous reasons I have pointed out before. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:25 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Are you saying that you do see obvious scumbuddies for Alakaslam? If so, doesn't this make you more comfortable with a 'Slam lynch? I could ask you the same of an Onegu lynch. I see obvious scumbuddies for BOTH lynches. I believe that Onegu is more likely to flip scum based upon Alakaslam's initial claim and various scummy characteristics of Onegu. Thus, I believe Onegu is the better lynch for today. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:26 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Soon, but not now. I want to see the mafia do the Scum Vote Shuffle for a bit. Our night time is long, and our actions simple. It will not take much time to plot our course forward. Okay, I see your point. I will hold off on that for now. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Would you call me crazy if I had a keen eye on a StiM modkill tonight? Wouldn't we be in a LYLO situation if StiM and Alakaslam both flipped town? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:30 FirmTofu wrote: Wouldn't we be in a LYLO situation if StiM and Alakaslam both flipped town? Actually we would lose because Mafia would kill a town member. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:32 hzflank wrote: Do you think I should base my play around that? Even though I think basing your play around that would benefit my case, I do NOT think you should base your play around it. Modkills should not be an active component of the game and we shouldn't change our play in anticipation of one, IMHO. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:38 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This. The spirit of the game is to assume active participation. StiM's M.O. is to swoop in at the last second anyway. I only mentioned the modkill as a possibility to mentally prepare people, not to seriously gameplan around it. I think he will post, he will vote, and he will continue to be less than helpful. His vote will also tell us little about his alignment if Alakaslam flips scum now that we have majority and his vote doesn't really matter. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
![]() | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:49 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Public Service Announcement: Reminder to all Town: a mislynch is not the end of the world here. It's important that we to follow through on this plan and not fall into despair or go rage afk. A mislynch is a real possibility, but if 'Slam does flip town, we have a lot of clear evidence (and the names of two mafia members) to actually help us make up ground. Lynching those two will get us to the endgame with a nice 2-on-1 shot of winning this thing. Don't tell me who your reads are, but if Alakaslam flips town, do you have 2 or 3 reads that you are nearly certain will flip scum? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 10:37 StiMaDDict wrote: Then I don't see why Onegu would claim.. I know you had a scum read on me and if I remember correctly FirmTofu was on Onegu.. This is actually a really important question to answer. His claim makes no sense from a town perspective at all, but he could potentially have made a mistake as scum because he was afraid of getting lynched and he thought Hurricane could vouch for him. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 10:38 hzflank wrote: Correct me if I am wrong here: Alakaslam flips red then: Onegu is town LoneMeow is town Aquanim is town Spicy is town Hurricane is town This is presumed, but not 100% yes. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 10:39 StiMaDDict wrote: FirmTofu, what do you make of Alak? I know that you believed Onegu was a scum since the end of Day1. Alak is a 75% town read right now for me. My reasoning is that 1) I had a pre-flip scum read on Onegu (See my case) 2) Alakaslam and Onegu CANNOT be the same alignment. 3) Alakaslam seems to be acting independently of any potential mafia team, which is odd. 4) Alakaslam's claim would be extremely silly to make if he was scum. It unnecessarily places him directly in the spotlight and increases his chances of being lynched to 50% automatically. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote: Vote:##Onegu Wrong format, hzflank. Host will probably still accept it, but just saying. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
SpicyDinosaur LoneMeow Onegu | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 10:54 hzflank wrote: I think Hurricane is wrong in at least one of those 3. Agreed. @Hurricane You have 6 minutes to change your vote, if you are considering it. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:00 jrkirby wrote: ![]() Shut up I don't like you. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:01 jrkirby wrote: You know what I'm having with my popcorn? That's right, firm tofu. Delicious. ![]() | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Well played, Aqua. Too bad you and Onegu had to die now for that. A mislynch always sucks, but Slam was radio silent this whole time. He mentioned himself he was mentally checked out of this game, so as long as the rest of town stays motivated going forward, we'll win this. No. I am not going to vote Aquanim unless you make an extraordinary case against him. Spicy is my top read for too many reasons to count. We should be lynching him after Onegu. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I want your new reads. Please explain why as well. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:00 geript wrote: Busy Votecount (without the picture) Onegu (2): StiMaDDict (0): FirmTofu (0): Alakaslam (5): hzflank (1): Not Voting: StiMaDDict [b][blue] Alakaslam the Green Ranger -- Tracker has been lynched Action Deadline for Night 2 is in [unparsable timestamp format] [blue]Night 2 ends in [unparsable timestamp format] My dear illustrious host, Onegu's vote count should have me, Alakaslam, hzflank, and StiM. That's 4 people. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:14 Hurricane Sponge wrote: If town doesn't vote unanimously, mafia get to choose the lynch target. Then let's get everyone's reads now and narrow down the list of possible candidates. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:15 StiMaDDict wrote: I guess I'm going to be lazy again now.. No. You don't get to be lazy. You are going to help us find out who the mafia is. If you are town, you need to stop playing terribly. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote: StiM cast a crucial vote against Onegu. If you're still suspecting him, you're obviously not analyzing from a pro-town perspective. That's not true at all, Hurricane. StiM vote was far from crucial. Everyone on the Alakaslam wagon already had their mind set on the mislynch, there was no way anyone was going to switch. StiM's vote changed nothing. If anything hzflank was the crucial vote because he brought it to 5-4 where if you voted Onegu, the flip would have changed hands. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:17 hzflank wrote: Exactly. When I dropped that 4th vote on Onegu I was half-expecting Aqua or Hurricane to drop the hammer. Stim could not of know that they would not do this. Stim is likely town. I think that is extremely presumptuous. Read my previous post. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:18 Aquanim wrote: When StiM voted Onegu, he was still two voteswitches away from being lynched, which at that time looked pretty unlikely. It's a point in StiM's favour but not a conclusive one. This is the correct takeaway from StiM's behavior. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:19 Hurricane Sponge wrote: If the remaining townies don't see that Aqua is scum, we deserve to lose. (Not that we already don't deserve to lose with the quality posting content of StiM, Xzavier and Alakaslam on our side...) The mafia play here is to kill me tonight (since I'm probably the only one who can convince Tofu of anything at this point), resulting in a split vote on Day 4 and a mafia win. You need to explain to me why you think Aqua is more likely to be scum than Spicy. Spicy has been the most obvious scumbuddy of Onegu all game long. They have not butted heads once and even formed a case against me together. I am as certain Spicy is scum as I was that Onegu was mafia an hour ago. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 11:28 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Every time mafia need a whipping boy, they pull out StiM. Onegu did it early, Aqua did it late. It doesn't matter, I'm never going to win a tunnel battle with you, Tofu. You are the tunnel king and I'm ready to just start throwing haymakers. I feel like I've said everything there is to say, the game is solved, and I'm probably going to die tonight anyway, so I don't have a vote left in this game. The scum team is Onegu, Aqua and LoneMeow (or Spicy, I haven't looked that far ahead yet). I haven't said it yet because I didn't want to get into an argument, but I would like to say this now. I have not tunneled anyone without considering the cases for other people and weighing them against my own. I would like to think I am a rational person and am always willing to change my vote when presented with superior evidence. What is happening now is you are tunneling Aqua based on little evidence. If you expect me to agree with you, you not only have to make a better case for him, you also need to explain why the case against Spicy isn't a better one. I am always willing to change my vote. I trust you as town more than anyone in this game, so trust me when I say this. I take your input into great consideration, I just strongly believe you are behaving irrationally. I think your ego may have taken a hit at this flip, and is causing you to behave this way. Please clear your mind, present a case if you have to, and stop using this defeatist attitude of, "FirmTofu will never change his mind so we lose." I urge you to first look at the situation from an unbiased point of view. Instead of looking for reasons why Aquanim is scum, try looking for reasons why everyone could be scum. Then, analyze each person's collective list of scummy behaviors and make a list of those you believe to be most scummy. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Again, I request you consolidate your posts. I agree with many of your points. At this moment, I am willing to vote LoneMeow 2 days from now, but I am still not convinced about Aquanim over Spicy. Explain to me Onegu's day 1 behavior voting for Aquanim. That is what is most striking to me and is a big part of why I think Aquanim is town. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 12:13 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow. The pieces are all there. Does someone want to clue me in as to why Spicy is a suspect? Instead of me making a case for Spicy, I want you to make one first. This will greatly help us as a team because I trust you and you trust me as sincere town. We can bounce ideas off of each other without having to suspect one another's motives. I want you to find everything that you think makes Spicy scummy and anything that makes you think Spicy is town. Please don't look at this exercise through "I've got to convince everyone that Aquanim is mafia" glasses. I want you to analyze Spicy from an unbiased point of view and give me your thoughts about him, good or bad. Try not to convince me one way or the other, just try to present each individual point and explain why you feel a certain way about it. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 12:20 FirmTofu wrote: Instead of me making a case for Spicy, I want you to make one first. This will greatly help us as a team because I trust you and you trust me as sincere town. We can bounce ideas off of each other without having to suspect one another's motives. I want you to find everything that you think makes Spicy scummy and anything that makes you think Spicy is town. Please don't look at this exercise through "I've got to convince everyone that Aquanim is mafia" glasses. I want you to analyze Spicy from an unbiased point of view and give me your thoughts about him, good or bad. Try not to convince me one way or the other, just try to present each individual point and explain why you feel a certain way about it. That said, I will work on a case on Spicy concurrently and we can see if our reads on him match in any way. I will also go through Aquanim's filter and revisit all your points regarding him. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Can you go through Aquanim's and Spicy's filter as well and give me your thoughts on both of them? @Everyone else Please state your top three scum reads at this juncture. *hint hint* Onegu should be on that list. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 12:23 hzflank wrote: Firm, please tell me what you think of my above point on Aqua. I honestly think that is the first good scum read I have made all day. it is not fluffy. I think he made a mistake when he posted that because a town Aqua would not of thought like that. I'm having trouble understanding it as well. I am going to go through Aqua's filter and search for some context. Don't bother to try and explain it to me. I want to draw my own conclusions and then see what other people think. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 12:37 hzflank wrote: If you actually believed what (you claim is) is the scum team's motivation for a fake-counter-claim is, and you had played out end game scenarios (which you obviously had in that very post) then your vote would of voted for Onegu. This is because by playing out your end game scenarios you would know that if we mislynch Alakaslam while you are on the wrong wagon, then we end up in the exact same end game scenario that you claim we must avoid. Therefore, you did not believe in the reason that you gave for the motivation behind the scum's fake claim. Are you talking to Aquanim in this post? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Pick your strongest scum read(other than Onegu) and make the best possible case you can for their lynch instead of yours. If you do this, I will definitely be able to ascertain your alignment. If you refuse to do this, I will peg you as mafia and you will likely be lynched after Onegu. I have thought about this a lot and this is the best possible play I could come up with. I will post my case on various people after you follow through. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 17:40 Aquanim wrote: Okay, I can do that. If you want my best possible case, it will take some time though. I intend to post it at the start of the one-hour night action resolution phase, unless you have some objection. Not that late. We'll need some time to discuss it before I die tonight. I'll ask Hurricane and the others when they're available and we can set a deadline for you. You should probably get started ASAP and have it ready to post at any time 5 hours before night ends. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 00:25 Aquanim wrote: @LoneMeow and StiMaDDict: I think it would be a good idea for both of you to tell us who your main suspect is as well. This is what we need to see next. @LoneMeow and StiM You both need to make a case for ONE top scum read and convince us that he is mafia. You may give us what you think the rest of the mafia team is, but the necessary input is a good case on one read. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 00:42 Spicydinosaur wrote: You are already convinced im scum so theres no way im convincing u. My biggest scum read is on stim. Ilk post why in a separate post since Im posting from my phone. That's not true. You can convince me of anything, trust me. I look forward to your case on StiM. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote: Case on stim. d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there. Okay, thanks! Hopefully, LoneMeow and StiM can pop in and give us their top scum reads as well. This is going well. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Please do not analyze the respective players who have posted their cases yet. We have still yet to hear from StiM and Meow; I would like to give them some time to respond. In the meantime, look through Spicy's and Aqua's posts and give me your thoughts about them like you said you would. It would also be very useful to consider Onegu's behaviors. Try to deduce who he is protecting and who is protecting him. When you are finished compiling the posts about Aqua and Spicy respectively, tell me but do not post. We need to time everything perfectly. So far, I think we are doing well. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 02:25 FirmTofu wrote: @Hurricane Please do not analyze the respective players who have posted their cases yet. We have still yet to hear from StiM and Meow; I would like to give them some time to respond. In the meantime, look through Spicy's and Aqua's posts and give me your thoughts about them like you said you would. It would also be very useful to consider Onegu's behaviors. Try to deduce who he is protecting and who is protecting him. When you are finished compiling the posts about Aqua and Spicy respectively, tell me but do not post. We need to time everything perfectly. So far, I think we are doing well. EBWOP: To clarify, I want you to analyze them but not post it publically as soon as you are finished. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
@StiM and LoneMeow Please post your case ASAP or we will be forced to lynch you. If you are running short on time, you can post an abbreviated version. @Spicy I am warming up to you a little bit. If you had to pick a mafia between LoneMeow and Aquanim, which one would be more likely to you? | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 08:40 hzflank wrote: If Onegu was a Framer, then Onegu would not know that Hurricane visited Alakaslam. The only way that Onegu could of known is if Onegu Framed Hurricane at the same time as another scum Tracked Hurricane. How likely is that? The only other way for Onegu to know is if Hurricane is scum. Hurricane backed up Onegu's claim by saying that he did indeed visit Alakaslam. But he did it in a non-committal way which could be seen as an attempt to leave himself an out. It's very unlikely that mafia have that many blues. If they do, we should expect to have a blue hiding within our ranks as well. At this point, if Hurricane is mafia, we have already lost. Luckily, I think the chance of that is extremely slim. I think the non-committal way that Hurricane backed up Onegu's claim tells us exactly what Hurricane really is. I won't spell it out for you because it is irrelevant to what we need to focus on at this juncture. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 09:48 hzflank wrote: Sorry for spamming, I'm running a single monitor and watching MLG. This thread is good for inflating my post counter though ![]() I am too! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 09:59 hzflank wrote: Deadline has passed? Yes. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 09:55 hzflank wrote: No point in looking too much into a link between Aqua and Lone until we know one of their alignments. it is not needed. This is the right answer. First we lynch Onegu. Then, we deduce possible alignments. Until then, we can only speculate. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:05 hzflank wrote: Don't worry Onegu's gone day 3, 8-1 vote count. Oh btw, Hurricane wont die. If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight. Hurricane is either lynched Day 4, or killed Night 4, and in a few minutes I will tell you why... (I love me some conspiracy, it seems) Don't tease me you bastard! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 13:36 Onegu wrote: As I have said before he provides a buffer to protect other blues, if there is a tracker for scum and it is likely and they know who nn is they can look to find other blue roles. Who cares if scum claim NN later we kill them anyway. If something wierd happens and the only explanation someone can give is I am NN we lynch them. All NN reveal does now is take away what little protection blues have. The request to ask Nosy Neighbor to claim screams town to me. Mafia isn't going to want to make a first post that is begging for attention. I would like to point out the immediate disconnect between Aquanim and Onegu right off the bat. Why would scum Onegu discredit their teammate immediately? It is important to note the distinction between discrediting someone and accusing someone. Discrediting your teammate decreases the weight of their opinion to town. This would be detrimental to the scum team in the long-run and I can see no good reason as to why they would want to do this. Although Onegu does accuse Aquanim somewhat down the line, his act of discrediting him initially makes me believe that Onegu and Aquanim do not share the same alignment. We see Onegu trying to discredit him again here, seemingly to establish town cred. On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote: I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy. This theory is further reinforced by the fact that Aquanim continues to push his belief that the NN should claim whenever someone disagrees with him about it. A scum Aquanim would likely back off to avoid attracting attention, but in this case, we see that he is adamant that the NN should claim no matter what. On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote: First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. Here we see Aquanim reinforcing his fundamental beliefs with a very passive-aggressive response to my criticism to his suggestion to have the NN claim. This response was my first reason for pegging Aquanim as town. Scum would not expose themselves to this kind of risk. Scum at this point should not be trying to cause waves like this. They would be trying to develop friendships and alliances with town members. On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote: @FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically? On June 24 2013 18:15 Aquanim wrote: Also, @Hurricane, what is your best guess as to who's scum? We all know that Chromatically liked to do a lot of these and he ended up flipping town. When I see Aquanim doing this, I get the feeling that he is town as well. More information about people's reads = More material to work with to make a case against people. It's very pro-town. On June 24 2013 19:35 Aquanim wrote: You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious. I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours. Again, we see Aqua's condescending tone shine through. Scum would not want to provoke people at this time, but town would want to provoke people they suspect of being mafia to make a mistake. On June 24 2013 21:08 Aquanim wrote: Oh, I don't have a problem with you starting the discussion - but the way in which you chose to do it made me feel uneasy. Calling somebody out for leaving for five minutes? Really? A very slight gut read was really all that ever boiled down to. Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you. No, it didn't feel like either of them, but I don't expect your scumgame to be the same as XXXI - you have learned a lot since then, I think. I kept getting asked about and called scum over the NN stuff, I would really have preferred for that not to drag out the way it did. tl;dr I had uneasy feelings about you but I feel a lot better after reading this post. My vote was fundamentally to draw reactions from you (to clarify my read) and other people, and to start some meaningful discussion (I don't think anything is accomplished in a thread until somebody's thrown down a vote). Go find some scum. ##Unvote Here we see Aquanim reasoning with himself and backing off from his accusation on Chromatically after Chromatically and I called him out on it. The important part about this post is that it seems like Aquanim is developing his thoughts about Chromatically as he writes about him. I take this to be evidence of a "stream of consciousness" type of thought process indicative of a town perspective. Town Aqua is unsure of Chromatically's alignment so when faced with an strong response, he backs off from his accusation that was initially based on a "gut feel". It got people talking and was overall very beneficial for town. I personally was able to establish both Chromatically and Aquanim as town from this argument. (see bold) We can clearly see that this is a town-motivated poke. As I mentioned before, scum would not want to do these kinds of things and risk the wrath of a strong town member. Chromatically was arguably one of the most authoritative town members at the time and pushing his lynch would be irrational from a scum perspective. On June 25 2013 13:43 Aquanim wrote: Meta in newbies is of limited usefulness, particularly for assessing scuminess directly - people's scumgames could change dramatically. However, if someone has demonstrated a capability for making cases/scumhunting/not being utterly useless/etc. there is no reason why that capability should disappear. I won't magically choose to start playing worse just for the sake of changing my playstyle. I am making the point that I can and will make cases to justify my vote when necessary, which I can prove by citing previous games. As far as I can tell, I've refuted both of the points which make up your case on me. Is there any reason your vote is still on me? If so, please share it. (see bolded) This kind of smart-ass, "I'm way better than you so you're wrong" kind of talk further reinforces my town read on Aquanim. Why would he speak in this manner to his scumbuddy? They would need to have a healthy relationship in the scum QT and lots of communication to pull something like this off. I am skeptical that they would be able to do this. Aquanim has already proved he talks like this to town (to me especially). If he talks the same way to scum, I can only imagine that he is not on the scum team. On June 25 2013 16:48 Aquanim wrote: You mentioned that he might be scum, but I haven't seen any attempt from you to pressure him, to solidify your read on him, or to suggest him as a lynch for today - that is, you haven't committed much to your read. What about his play is scummy to you? More pressure on known scum. Why would scum do this to themselves? On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote: Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE ##: VOTE ALAKASLAM But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. This is the thread where Onegu changes his vote from Aqua to Alakaslam. It looks like Onegu is afraid. Afraid of what will happen if and when Aqua flips town and also afraid of what will happen if he makes an enemy in Aquanim for the long-run. He cares about what Aquanim thinks. If they were both scum, he would already know what Aquanim thinks. This is a distinct difference here. I've only gone through half of Aqua's filter, but this should be sufficient evidence to convince you of his alignment. His supposed "connections" with LoneMeow are perfectly valid sentiments that can come from a town perspective. As that relationship is the crux of Hurricane's argument, I cannot rationally agree that the evidence I have presented is outweighed by that argument. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I never intended to vote StiMaDDict even though I told Spicy that I would. I actually have StiM on my town list. Not confirmed town, but town nonetheless. I told Spicy I trust him in order to manipulate the NK. If Spicy is scum, he would push for killing me in his mafia QT. By saying I trust him, he may decide not to kill me and because I am the most confirmed town thus far, this would be beneficial to us. Unfortunately, I think Spicy is still traveling so my play didn't amount to much. My scum team list is as follows: Onegu SpicyDinosaur LoneMeow I have very little doubt that Aquanim is town. The only possibility, in my eyes, is that StiM may flip mafia instead of LoneMeow. I don't think this is particularly likely. LoneMeow is significantly more scummy than StiM at this point. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Aquanim accusing Spicy Aquanim accusing LoneMeow Spicy accusing Stim This makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, LoneMeow, and Spicy likely. It also makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow unlikely. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Spicy has never accused LoneMeow or Onegu of anything. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:27 hzflank wrote: But Firm dismissed my theory so easily ![]() I didn't dismiss your theory at all. I just don't think you should see a conspiracy theory as the most likely course of action for the scum team and act according to the assumption that it occurred. Occam's razor! | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:30 hzflank wrote: That is not relevant. Ignore who Aqua is accusing. If he were scum then he would also be accusing them. I disagree. The issue of self-preservation is only relevant if you give credit to WIFOM. If you give credence to WIFOM, then you must admit that it is impossible to predict anything off of accusations. I disagree. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
We should take the reads of whoever dies tonight into special consideration. The mafia actively chose to kill someone because they knew that that person would probably push for a lynch against one of their teammates. For example, if I die, you need to strongly consider lynching Spicy. If Hurricane dies, we should revisit Aquanim's case and consider lynching him. etc. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:46 hzflank wrote: Give them more credit. They managed to hit the cop day 1. They are thinking about their shots. Chromatically was the obvious choice. I'm pretty sure anyone in the same situation would have picked him or me. Consider all the scum slips that Onegu had. IT's not like mafia had a flawless game or anything. I don't think it's even justifiable to assume that a veteran is more likely to be in the game anyway. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:51 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This is actually why I was so clear about my 3-man team. I wanted to make it obvious. If I live, I can only explain it as me being off course. My most likely mis-read? Aquanim. Tonight was all about pressure, and taking the bullet for information. If Aquanim is scum, he is by far the best player on his team. Hopefully, my pressure overrode his objectivity and led to a shot of self-preservation. Honestly, I haven't even read what Aqua has posted in response to my rather ham-fisted burial attempt earlier. Night 2 was all about setting a tone, and I wanted my specific tone to be 'Lynch Scum Aqua'. Whatever information we can glean from that is up for debate, but it was worth a shot. (Puns are a personal weakness, forgive me.) *brofist* I actually was wishing that hzflank would switch his read to Spicy so I could pretend to switch my read to StiM. The NK would give us sooooo much information if we were to coordinate that. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:55 hzflank wrote: Also, Firm, you should have countered ![]() why did I use that phrase? ![]() | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
*cough cough* "..............bought the lotto ticket." FirmTofu let out a final sigh and passed into the nether world, his soul still searching for an answer to all of life's questions. | ||
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
P.S. HAHAHAHA I told y'all that Spicy and Onegu were mafia!!! ![]() | ||
| ||