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Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 19 2013 19:31 GMT
#28
/in
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 20 2013 16:21 GMT
#50
On June 20 2013 05:42 Ange777 wrote:
I played my first Newbie Game with FirmTofu :D

OH HEY! How's it going? I love you <3 Have you been playing regularly? I'm trying mafia again because it's summer now and I have bunches of time.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 22 2013 20:52 GMT
#99
ONE MORE! The anticipation is killing me...
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 23 2013 19:49 GMT
#111
On June 24 2013 04:44 geript wrote:
The game will be starting tonight in [unparsable timestamp format]

Could you update the op with the updated player list? Thanks!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 01:08 GMT
#122
I would like to establish my innocence at this point, so as to dispel any thoughts about my future alignment.

I have never killed or assisted in killing ANYONE in my entire life. Thus, it would be presumptuous to accuse me of being a murderer or an accomplice to murder.

Thank you for reading.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 02:15 GMT
#135
Scum Hunt Day 1:
On June 24 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:
hey guys

Analysis: Trying to appear friendly with an innocuous greeting. Seems to project an air of insecurity.
Preliminary Conclusion: Scum

On June 24 2013 11:01 StiMaDDict wrote:
so it begins..

Analysis: Neutral statement of fact.
Preliminary Conclusion: Need more information.

On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Analysis: Exudes power with strong capitalization techniques along with a greeting.
Preliminary Conclusion: A leader with a powerful role.

On June 24 2013 11:03 Xzavier wrote:
Spicy <3 hello again.

Analysis: Trying to establish a connection with a player that he has interacted with prior to this game. A metagaming, manipulative sort of move.
Preliminary Conclusion: Scummy

On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote:
Why so scummy, Spicy?

Analysis: First baseless accusation. As the old chinese proverb states, "He who smelt it, dealt it."
Preliminary Conclusion: Scum

Suggested Lynch: Chromatically
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 02:29 GMT
#143
On June 24 2013 11:21 Xzavier wrote:
jesus somebody went a long way to post alot of nothing xD

Lighten up bud, I was trying to make some conversation and get things started.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 02:58 GMT
#160
On June 24 2013 11:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town.


Whoa, whoa, slow down there bud, the Nosy Neighbor should NOT be claiming right now. Have a look at the rolecard again.

On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote:
Alpha 5 -- Nosy Neighbour
You visit a random person at night and do nothing, but can be tracked there and watched visiting. You are aware of this behaviour, but are not able to stop it or even control it.


See that? The part where it says RANDOM? The dude can't pick who he visits, so there's no point in revealing him. He might be visiting someone who isn't mafia-killed, sure, but he could just as easily be one of the mafia roles that doesn't kill. I appreciate the sentiment, but your plan is ill-advised and short-sighted.

You also are under the assumption that we have a tracker and that this tracker is going to reveal on day 2 to confirm the nosy neighbor as town. It's all very presumptuous and ill-conceived.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 03:01 GMT
#162
As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 03:09 GMT
#165
On June 24 2013 12:07 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 12:01 FirmTofu wrote:
As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.


But on day one, is that not all we have to go off of?

No, Hurricane Sponge kindly provided some objectionable material for us to look over. Take some to go over some of Spicy Dinosaur's posts as well.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 03:12 GMT
#168
On June 24 2013 12:10 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Alright, it appears that my plan has oversights that are unacceptable risks at this juncture. Thank you to the veteran players (or just simply better players) who found them so quickly. Personally, I'm more concerned about Chromatic's point (regarding letting mafia call their shot on blues) than the risk of a mafia-tracker claiming NN, but I will not protest if we continue the scum-hunt without regard for my posted plan.

To me, everyone who is posting one-liners looks spammy to me, but I think the 'everyone is scum until they convince me otherwise' mentality isn't the worst thing in the world. Spicy and Xzavier are on my radar for the fluff and nonsense at the beginning. Chromatically and FirmTofu seem the most town as they were very quick to point out what were (in their view) flaws in a plan to move forward that may have compromised the town.

For the time being, I am willing to forgive you for your plan because I honestly believe it was a newbie mistake. However, I reserve the right to change my opinion!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 03:28 GMT
#175
On June 24 2013 12:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
The Case on Xzavier being spammy:

None of this is useable for me. That could just be me sucking at reads (no, really. This is a possibility), but none of this material brings anything new to the table for me or encourages serious scum-hunting discussion.


Yeah, he's spammy, sure. Yeah, he hasn't contributed much, sure. Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who haven't contributed and spam is ok at this point because there isn't a whole lot to talk about. I don't this is sufficient evidence to justify a lynch.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 03:30 GMT
#179
Quoted Player List for reference:
On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote:
The Players

  1. Hurricane Sponge
  2. Onegu
  3. Chromatically
  4. Xzavier
  5. StiMaDDict
  6. FirmTofu
  7. fyfy
  8. hzflank
  9. Alakaslam
  10. Aquanim
  11. Spicydinosaur
  12. LoneMeow


We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 03:36 GMT
#183
I actually do believe Spicydinosaur is scummy, but not for the reasons that Hurricane Sponge states.

In all of his posts, he is extremely defensive. At the slightest mention of someone accusing him of anything, he flares up in his own defense. This could be due to his personality or it could be that he is extremely afraid of getting lynched. If it is indeed the latter, he is likely to be a powerful role, town or mafia. This is my preliminary assessment.

(It's funny that this real analysis is in agreement with my fluff analysis at the beginning of the game)
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 03:44 GMT
#190
On June 24 2013 12:39 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 12:36 FirmTofu wrote:
I actually do believe Spicydinosaur is scummy, but not for the reasons that Hurricane Sponge states.

In all of his posts, he is extremely defensive. At the slightest mention of someone accusing him of anything, he flares up in his own defense. This could be due to his personality or it could be that he is extremely afraid of getting lynched. If it is indeed the latter, he is likely to be a powerful role, town or mafia. This is my preliminary assessment.

(It's funny that this real analysis is in agreement with my fluff analysis at the beginning of the game)


I do this in all my games, check out Les Mafiafor a good example. Though i don't see how that is alignment indicative as no one wants to get lynched.

I won't bother looking at your past games, because I believe you should only be judged on your actions in this game. As I mentioned before, you could very well have a defensive personality, so I am not saying you are definitely scum or anything like that.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 04:27 GMT
#208
[QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:
Quoted Player List for reference:
[QUOTE]On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote:
The Players

  1. Hurricane Sponge
  2. Onegu
  3. Chromatically
  4. Xzavier
  5. StiMaDDict
  6. FirmTofu
  7. fyfy
  8. hzflank
  9. Alakaslam
  10. Aquanim
  11. Spicydinosaur
  12. LoneMeow

[/QUOTE]
Lurkers: fyfy, Aquanium, LoneMeow, StiMaDDict, Alakaslam (Sorry, I know you said you were eating, but for all intents and purposes, you haven't posted at all.)
Let's keep a close watch on these guys before we start voting.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 04:34 GMT
#212
On June 24 2013 13:22 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 13:00 Chromatically wrote:
hz, do you have any scumreads?


At the moment I am looking at FirmTofu. His chain of attack and defense looks like:

Attack Chromatically
Attack Xzavier
Attack Hurricane
Attack Spicy
Defend Hurricane
Defend Xzavier
Attack Spicy

For some reason the defenses seem a little out of place to me, especially the defense on Xzavier. On the other hand I believe Hurricane to be town as if he were scum then he is very brave to make the first post that he did.

I am also very aware that I made an slightly extended attack on Spicy, who now seems to be FirmTofu's main target. I am wondering if he thinks Spicy is a good lynch target because he can count on my vote.(1)

He has also said twice that we should only use information from this game and not previous games. I think town should have access to as much information as possible in order to lynch scum.

Therefore to me, FirmTofu is currently the scummiest player.(2)

You are taking an extremely simplified approach to analyze my actions. I am not "attacking" or "defending" anyone. I am stating my opinions on how various people are behaving. If you can't distinguish between the two, we have a serious problem here. You can't say that my "defenses" are out of place without even looking at the context of the situation. Read my quote, see if it makes sense to you, and form an opinion based on that.

Furthermore, this post is as scummy as scummy gets. You state that you can side with me as I pursue a lynch on Spicy(see 1), but you also consider me to be the scummiest player(see 2). How are these two chain of thoughts compatible?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 06:18 GMT
#238
Sorry guys, the bbcode did a number on me.

PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DON'T QUOTE MESSED UP BBCODE.

I have the bbcode fixed below, so if you want to quote the list, use this.
On June 24 2013 13:27 FirmTofu wrote:
Quoted Player List for reference:
Show nested quote +
On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote:
The Players

  1. Hurricane Sponge
  2. Onegu
  3. Chromatically
  4. Xzavier
  5. StiMaDDict
  6. FirmTofu
  7. fyfy
  8. hzflank
  9. Alakaslam
  10. Aquanim
  11. Spicydinosaur
  12. LoneMeow




I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 06:26 GMT
#240
On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote:
@FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically?

Give me a sec, I'm reading up the thread again.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 07:09 GMT
#244
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 07:48 GMT
#249
On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe.

Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on:
1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it.
2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody.
Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these.

The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot.

Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him.

I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly.

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote:
On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy.


The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though.

My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please.

Your condescending tone is strangely alluring. You are right that an NN claim is unlikely to be mafia, just because it is a quite a risky gambit. I knew that, but omitted it from my previous statement to strengthen my argument. I will agree to disagree about whether the fact that the gain in information to scum is significant, but overall, you make a solid case for an NN claim. I concede on the grounds that I am unfamiliar with how this sort of role interacts with others, and your argument seems sound.

As for Chromatically...
Your case is extremely weak.
On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
Regarding scum
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.

1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?

Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.

2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.

##Vote: Chromatically

Addressing your point 1), you are going off a bad feeling. Feelings don't cut it for me. I need evidence to make a move.
Addressing point 2), it seems quite town to me because it's forcing lurkers to talk. Talking is good for town, so I see this move as something a townie would do.

There are a few other things that make me think Chromatically is town. He was the first person to point out the foolish aspects of Hurricane's poorly thought-out claim. What incentive would mafia have to steer town in the right direction?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 07:53 GMT
#251
As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and

##Vote: fyfy

because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 17:27 GMT
#299
Hey guys, I just woke up but I've still got to read the thread. Be back soon.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 17:32 GMT
#300
##: unvote
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 17:38 GMT
#301
Wrong format sorry. ##unvote: fyfy
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 18:17 GMT
#306
Just finished reading the thread. Thank you, hzflank. You are my hero.
On June 25 2013 02:53 hzflank wrote:
I've been waiting for particular posts from Aquanim and Chromatically, which they have now made.

That's a pretty flimsy case that Chrom has made against me. There is no reason to think that I would make a casual opening post when by the time I joined the game there were already five other casual opening posts. I think the game strategy stuff (regarding NN) was as good a discussion as any as it is actually important to the game.

Up until this point I have in no way cared as to whether or not I look scummy, and since I got my scum read from Aquanim's first post it made sense for me to wait until there was a case made against someone before I posted this. It's about time that the scum try to get a wagon rolling and I am happy enough for that wagon to be on me, so I will even help scum Chromatically by ensuring that scum Aquanim also votes for me. Here is my take on the important parts of day 1 so far:

Hurricane is the first to discuss the NN claiming.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 11:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Ugh, let's avoid the 'should we lynch lurkers talk' shall we?

I'm gonna go ahead and post the play I had written earlier this week analyzing this game from a pro-town perspective. If any of my analysis is off-base, please jump in and steer me back on track.

Pre-written segment starts now:

Alright, chums. First let me state that in NO WAY is the following message a call for a mass claim. If you are the Parity Cop (assuming you even exist), DO NOT SAY SO. In fact, if you're our town's parity cop, it's probably better if you appear to ignore what I'm about to say completely. Same goes for Trackers and Watchers. DO NOT CLAIM. But read carefully, because you are a big part of whether we succeed or fail (whether we follow my plan or not).

Now everyone, pay attention: Looking over the roles, the extremely juicy pro-town potential jumped right off the page at me, as I hope it did to many of you. Trackers can tell us if a person visits someone. Pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Watcher, who can pick a person and sees all who visit them. Obviously, this means we can try to guess the guy who's going to be mafia-killed, and we have a couple shots at seeing if he either gets visited, or manage to Track the mafia member who happens to be tagged to do the deed. Not great odds on either, but still better than nothing.

My plan utilizes each role to their maximum potential. Because we are not guaranteed to have a Tracker, Watcher, or even a Parity Cop, it's important that for the roles we DO get, we use them efficiently. The Watcher needs to guess the target they think will be mafia-killed tonight. This is up to your judgement, but I'll make a recommendation later today.

The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town.

I can elaborate further, but I feel like you can all piece together whatever holes are out there without me holding your hand even further. This is an extremely pro-town set-up (assuming there aren't a bunch of red herrings in which case, Hi I'm sponge, and I just gave you all the book on me.) and I'd like to move fast before mafia can organize their thoughts in their private little forum. If we move fast, and force independent action, they lose one of their many advantages.


I wont go into my game theory here but can do in another post if people request, however I absolutely believe that the NN declaring is something that the scum would want. There were several people that disagreed with NN claiming, but importantly no one declared Hurricane to be especially scummy for making the post.

Aquanim then makes a first post that is clever scum. + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:
Quoted Player List for reference:
On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote:
The Players

  1. Hurricane Sponge
  2. Onegu
  3. Chromatically
  4. Xzavier
  5. StiMaDDict
  6. FirmTofu
  7. fyfy
  8. hzflank
  9. Alakaslam
  10. Aquanim
  11. Spicydinosaur
  12. LoneMeow


We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow.

You wound me.

Regarding claims
I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles.

The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum.

Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means.

No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.)

Regarding scum
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.

1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?

Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.

2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.

##Vote: Chromatically


Aquanim hopes that he can get a few town to agree that the NN should out themselves. Then his scumbuddies can also agree and the NN might claim, giving an advantage to the scum team. Since Hurricane did not get a hard time, Aquanim does not think that he will be lynched for being the first to make the suggestion. Aquanim is fairly sure that when the time comes he can rely on Hurricanes vote for NN to claim, so he really only needs two more town votes, which makes it worth a try.

Aqua's scumbuddy, Chromatically, has already said that the NN claiming is a bad idea. Aqua sees a chance to make a good play here and throws a weak vote on Chromatically. It is still early in the day and there is little chance of a wagon forming. Aqua never intends to leave his vote on Chromatically, but is just creating some distance from him so that it wont look suspicious if Chromatically should change his mind about the NN claim. Ofcourse there is the added bonus that if Chromatically should later flip scum then Aqua can refer to his very first post and claim to be confirmed town.

Next, FirmTofu defends my weak read on him. + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 13:34 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 13:22 hzflank wrote:
On June 24 2013 13:00 Chromatically wrote:
hz, do you have any scumreads?


At the moment I am looking at FirmTofu. His chain of attack and defense looks like:

Attack Chromatically
Attack Xzavier
Attack Hurricane
Attack Spicy
Defend Hurricane
Defend Xzavier
Attack Spicy

For some reason the defenses seem a little out of place to me, especially the defense on Xzavier. On the other hand I believe Hurricane to be town as if he were scum then he is very brave to make the first post that he did.

I am also very aware that I made an slightly extended attack on Spicy, who now seems to be FirmTofu's main target. I am wondering if he thinks Spicy is a good lynch target because he can count on my vote.(1)

He has also said twice that we should only use information from this game and not previous games. I think town should have access to as much information as possible in order to lynch scum.

Therefore to me, FirmTofu is currently the scummiest player.(2)

You are taking an extremely simplified approach to analyze my actions. I am not "attacking" or "defending" anyone. I am stating my opinions on how various people are behaving. If you can't distinguish between the two, we have a serious problem here. You can't say that my "defenses" are out of place without even looking at the context of the situation. Read my quote, see if it makes sense to you, and form an opinion based on that.

Furthermore, this post is as scummy as scummy gets. You state that you can side with me as I pursue a lynch on Spicy(see 1), but you also consider me to be the scummiest player(see 2). How are these two chain of thoughts compatible?
. The important part about his defence is where he misinterprets my badly written line regarding voting for Spicy. This is my fault as I should have been less ambiguous with my wording, but I hope most people can see what I actually meant. My mistake here makes me a prime target for the scum wagon as there is a reasonable chance that FirmTofu will get on board.

By this point I suspect that either Aqua or Chromatically might put their vote on me, but I cannot say so prematurely, especially since Aqua still has his vote on Chrom. After a little consideration I decide to lurk for a while, as I wanted Chrom to make a post of some sort before I made this claim.

Next we have:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote:
@FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically?


So right after Aqua realised my above mistake with Firm, he asks Firm for his read on Chrom (who aqua still has his vote on). He is either looking for Firm to give him a good reason to think Chrom is town, or he is looking for Firm to give a scum read on me, or both. Either way, Firm is the most likely town to get onto my wagon at this point, so it is good setup.

Here we have Aqua ask Firm again for their opinion on his case on Chromatically. + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe.

Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on:
1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it.
2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody.
Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these.

The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot.

Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him.

I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly.

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote:
On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy.


The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though.

My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please.


Remember that this was the case that Aqua put forth in his very first post of the game. It was not a strong case and he knew it would never stand, so it was a good way to both give people a town read on his scumbuddy and also create some distance within the scum team. Firm responds that he thinks Chrom is town, which is exactly what Aqua wanted and why he asked him twice. Aqua has now gotten Firm (the person he thinks he can get to vote for me) to say that the scumbuddy that Aqua has his vote on (Chrom) is town. Well played Aqua.

Shorlty after, Aqua posts this + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:48 FirmTofu wrote:
As for Chromatically...
Your case is extremely weak.
On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
Regarding scum
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.

1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.

On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?

Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.

2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.

##Vote: Chromatically

Addressing your point 1), you are going off a bad feeling. Feelings don't cut it for me. I need evidence to make a move.

I suppose that's a fair enough position to hold. I've personally found that my reads based on 'feelings' are often more accurate than those where I carefully assemble 'evidence'. This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII.
Show nested quote +

Addressing point 2), it seems quite town to me because it's forcing lurkers to talk. Talking is good for town, so I see this move as something a townie would do.

Asking questions is a town-y kind of thing to do, I agree. However, in my mind it is only significantly town-y when there is an actual plan behind those questions. By comparison, Chromatic was asking pretty generic questions without any real point or follow-up. Asking other people for their reads while having shared none of his own does not sit well with me.

Show nested quote +

There are a few other things that make me think Chromatically is town. He was the first person to point out the foolish aspects of Hurricane's poorly thought-out claim. What incentive would mafia have to steer town in the right direction?

Pointing out that some plan or another is stupid before anyone else does is a really cheap way of accumulating town-cred without committing to anything. Someone was going to shoot that plan down either way, so a scum player would have nothing to gain from not shooting it down.

All this being said, I think that what he's done so far could plausibly be explained by a town mentality as well as a scum one. If he comes back tomorrow and starts playing a good town-game I'll be looking to lynch somebody else. For the meantime, though, my vote and intention stays.


There he gets in that his read on Chrom is based on feelings rather than evidence. He is telling us that there is no good reason to suspect Chrom while he still has his vote on Chrom. He closed by saying that if Chrom starts to play a good town game then he will move his vote to someone else, which in this case will be the person that Chrom votes for because they are scumbuddies.

Here Aqua mocks Firm for voting due to inactivity because part of their plan was that Firm would vote for me, and he wants to make sure that Firm will move his vote. + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 19:35 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 18:55 fyfy wrote:
I don't know why I'm being voted day 1 when I haven't posted anything yet, I'm sure this kind of behaviour is exactly what the scum wants us to do. I'm sorry if there's no meta on me cause this is my first game and I would like to have my first game where I am not dead the first day. I can honestly assure everyone that I am town and killing me is a bad idea.


EDIT: I know I sound scummy but I guess that's what you're all going to have :/

You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious.

I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours.


Chromatically gets back online and makes this post: + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:
Quoted Player List for reference:
On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote:
The Players

  1. Hurricane Sponge
  2. Onegu
  3. Chromatically
  4. Xzavier
  5. StiMaDDict
  6. FirmTofu
  7. fyfy
  8. hzflank
  9. Alakaslam
  10. Aquanim
  11. Spicydinosaur
  12. LoneMeow


We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow.

You wound me.

Regarding claims
I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles.

The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum.

Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means.

No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.)

Regarding scum
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.

1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.

On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?

Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.

2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.

##Vote: Chromatically

Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells.

Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it.

If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them?

Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason?

You also said:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:

This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII.

Oh, this feels more like the scum Chromatic from XXXI?

I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and Nns.


I take that as: 'Okay Aqua, time to unvote me now because I am going to try to start a wagon on someone else and it would not look as good for you to move your vote directly from me to them'.

Surprise surprise, in the very next post Aqua unvotes Chrom, which we all knew would happen after reading Aqua's very first post in this game (where he voted for Chrom). The most important line in this post by Aqua is: 'Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you', because that is him paving the way for Chrom to begin the mis-lynch attempt.

And then finally Chrom makes a case against me and votes.

Now, it would be easier for me to vote if I had an individual scum read, but since I am fairly confident that both Aqua and Chrom are scum, I am going to vote for Chrom because I think doing so will force Aqua to take a very strong stance one way or the other. Chrom already has his vote on me, so if I vote Aqua then Chrom does not need to make a decision and can just leave his vote where it is.

##Vote: Chromatically

I almost agree with everything you said. The problem arises when you realize that the case you've made for aqua is a hell of a lot stronger than the case you've made for Chromatically. Is this something you have overlooked? Or are you deliberately weaving a story to pit town against one another? For the time being, it's hard to tell one way or the other, but I did enjoy reading.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 18:32 GMT
#307
My Defense from Spicy's Accusation

On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:
@Aquanim I dont like your case against chrom. Our exchange in the beginning was just to get the ball rolling which worked and started generating some content. Its still early D1 but right now im feeling chrom as town.

Looking at FirmTofu as possible scum target.

His first post is pure spam that does nothing to generate discussion

It wasn't pure spam, and I certainly hoped it would generate discussion. I knew I could not really say anything of substance at that point, so I decided to do something fun that would get people talking. I see absolutely nothing wrong with that. When you look at this post and contrast it to some first few posts, you can clearly see that singling me out as a target is rather silly.

On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:
I'm also not a huge fan of his stance on meta use. He claims that he doesn't want to use meta which would be fine on its own, but here he is using the argument to ignore evidence.

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 12:01 FirmTofu wrote:
As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.


He claims I'm scummy because i am defensive when accused of being scum.

I'm not sure this qualifies for an argument against me. My belief that the game should stay in the game is merely a philosophical one and has absolutely nothing to do with my alignment. You can use it against me to form your weak case for lynching me, but it isn't going to convince anyone.

On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 12:36 FirmTofu wrote:
I actually do believe Spicydinosaur is scummy, but not for the reasons that Hurricane Sponge states.

In all of his posts, he is extremely defensive. At the slightest mention of someone accusing him of anything, he flares up in his own defense. This could be due to his personality or it could be that he is extremely afraid of getting lynched. If it is indeed the latter, he is likely to be a powerful role, town or mafia. This is my preliminary assessment.

(It's funny that this real analysis is in agreement with my fluff analysis at the beginning of the game)


He acknowledges that it could just be my personality, yet when I link past games to show exactly that, he ignores it. At this point he just backs off his scum claim.

I wasn't ignoring it, I was reiterating my aforementioned stance on using prior games to influence future ones. You are also just listing my actions and not commenting on how they seem scummy to you. I'm not sure what is scummy here.

On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:

Next up is the lurker list post which doesnt tell us anything new and just clutters up the thread. We all know who has/hasnt been posting as the filter button is a click away.

Yes, the bbcode got messed up. However, I had quoted numerous things prior to that quote that didn't have the bbcode messed up. To read into an honest mistake like that as a deliberate ploy is rather silly. I wanted to draw attention to the players who had not yet spoken, that was all. I didn't ask anyone to quote my bad bbcode, did I? They could have just as easily fixed it themselves, instead of placing the blame on me. This is such a silly argument that holds no substance.

On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Lastly his vote on fyfy has been bugging me. It is clearly a pressure vote to get him active but why target fyfy over stim? Stim actually posted at the beginning of the day right after the day post, then dissipated. He was there reading the thread but not actively posting. This seems scummier than fyfy at the moment.


Just because Stim seems scummier than fyfy doesn't mean fyfy shouldn't be voted. I wanted fyfy to talk and I wanted to draw attention to him. That was the reason for my vote. Nothing more, nothing less. We can address Stim now that I am awake.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 19:01 GMT
#313
On June 25 2013 03:44 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 03:17 FirmTofu wrote:
Just finished reading the thread. Thank you, hzflank. You are my hero.
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 25 2013 02:53 hzflank wrote:
I've been waiting for particular posts from Aquanim and Chromatically, which they have now made.

That's a pretty flimsy case that Chrom has made against me. There is no reason to think that I would make a casual opening post when by the time I joined the game there were already five other casual opening posts. I think the game strategy stuff (regarding NN) was as good a discussion as any as it is actually important to the game.

Up until this point I have in no way cared as to whether or not I look scummy, and since I got my scum read from Aquanim's first post it made sense for me to wait until there was a case made against someone before I posted this. It's about time that the scum try to get a wagon rolling and I am happy enough for that wagon to be on me, so I will even help scum Chromatically by ensuring that scum Aquanim also votes for me. Here is my take on the important parts of day 1 so far:

Hurricane is the first to discuss the NN claiming.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 11:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Ugh, let's avoid the 'should we lynch lurkers talk' shall we?

I'm gonna go ahead and post the play I had written earlier this week analyzing this game from a pro-town perspective. If any of my analysis is off-base, please jump in and steer me back on track.

Pre-written segment starts now:

Alright, chums. First let me state that in NO WAY is the following message a call for a mass claim. If you are the Parity Cop (assuming you even exist), DO NOT SAY SO. In fact, if you're our town's parity cop, it's probably better if you appear to ignore what I'm about to say completely. Same goes for Trackers and Watchers. DO NOT CLAIM. But read carefully, because you are a big part of whether we succeed or fail (whether we follow my plan or not).

Now everyone, pay attention: Looking over the roles, the extremely juicy pro-town potential jumped right off the page at me, as I hope it did to many of you. Trackers can tell us if a person visits someone. Pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Watcher, who can pick a person and sees all who visit them. Obviously, this means we can try to guess the guy who's going to be mafia-killed, and we have a couple shots at seeing if he either gets visited, or manage to Track the mafia member who happens to be tagged to do the deed. Not great odds on either, but still better than nothing.

My plan utilizes each role to their maximum potential. Because we are not guaranteed to have a Tracker, Watcher, or even a Parity Cop, it's important that for the roles we DO get, we use them efficiently. The Watcher needs to guess the target they think will be mafia-killed tonight. This is up to your judgement, but I'll make a recommendation later today.

The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town.

I can elaborate further, but I feel like you can all piece together whatever holes are out there without me holding your hand even further. This is an extremely pro-town set-up (assuming there aren't a bunch of red herrings in which case, Hi I'm sponge, and I just gave you all the book on me.) and I'd like to move fast before mafia can organize their thoughts in their private little forum. If we move fast, and force independent action, they lose one of their many advantages.


I wont go into my game theory here but can do in another post if people request, however I absolutely believe that the NN declaring is something that the scum would want. There were several people that disagreed with NN claiming, but importantly no one declared Hurricane to be especially scummy for making the post.

Aquanim then makes a first post that is clever scum. + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:
Quoted Player List for reference:
On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote:
The Players

  1. Hurricane Sponge
  2. Onegu
  3. Chromatically
  4. Xzavier
  5. StiMaDDict
  6. FirmTofu
  7. fyfy
  8. hzflank
  9. Alakaslam
  10. Aquanim
  11. Spicydinosaur
  12. LoneMeow


We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow.

You wound me.

Regarding claims
I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles.

The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum.

Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means.

No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.)

Regarding scum
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.

1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?

Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.

2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.

##Vote: Chromatically


Aquanim hopes that he can get a few town to agree that the NN should out themselves. Then his scumbuddies can also agree and the NN might claim, giving an advantage to the scum team. Since Hurricane did not get a hard time, Aquanim does not think that he will be lynched for being the first to make the suggestion. Aquanim is fairly sure that when the time comes he can rely on Hurricanes vote for NN to claim, so he really only needs two more town votes, which makes it worth a try.

Aqua's scumbuddy, Chromatically, has already said that the NN claiming is a bad idea. Aqua sees a chance to make a good play here and throws a weak vote on Chromatically. It is still early in the day and there is little chance of a wagon forming. Aqua never intends to leave his vote on Chromatically, but is just creating some distance from him so that it wont look suspicious if Chromatically should change his mind about the NN claim. Ofcourse there is the added bonus that if Chromatically should later flip scum then Aqua can refer to his very first post and claim to be confirmed town.

Next, FirmTofu defends my weak read on him. + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 13:34 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 13:22 hzflank wrote:
On June 24 2013 13:00 Chromatically wrote:
hz, do you have any scumreads?


At the moment I am looking at FirmTofu. His chain of attack and defense looks like:

Attack Chromatically
Attack Xzavier
Attack Hurricane
Attack Spicy
Defend Hurricane
Defend Xzavier
Attack Spicy

For some reason the defenses seem a little out of place to me, especially the defense on Xzavier. On the other hand I believe Hurricane to be town as if he were scum then he is very brave to make the first post that he did.

I am also very aware that I made an slightly extended attack on Spicy, who now seems to be FirmTofu's main target. I am wondering if he thinks Spicy is a good lynch target because he can count on my vote.(1)

He has also said twice that we should only use information from this game and not previous games. I think town should have access to as much information as possible in order to lynch scum.

Therefore to me, FirmTofu is currently the scummiest player.(2)

You are taking an extremely simplified approach to analyze my actions. I am not "attacking" or "defending" anyone. I am stating my opinions on how various people are behaving. If you can't distinguish between the two, we have a serious problem here. You can't say that my "defenses" are out of place without even looking at the context of the situation. Read my quote, see if it makes sense to you, and form an opinion based on that.

Furthermore, this post is as scummy as scummy gets. You state that you can side with me as I pursue a lynch on Spicy(see 1), but you also consider me to be the scummiest player(see 2). How are these two chain of thoughts compatible?
. The important part about his defence is where he misinterprets my badly written line regarding voting for Spicy. This is my fault as I should have been less ambiguous with my wording, but I hope most people can see what I actually meant. My mistake here makes me a prime target for the scum wagon as there is a reasonable chance that FirmTofu will get on board.

By this point I suspect that either Aqua or Chromatically might put their vote on me, but I cannot say so prematurely, especially since Aqua still has his vote on Chrom. After a little consideration I decide to lurk for a while, as I wanted Chrom to make a post of some sort before I made this claim.

Next we have:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote:
@FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically?


So right after Aqua realised my above mistake with Firm, he asks Firm for his read on Chrom (who aqua still has his vote on). He is either looking for Firm to give him a good reason to think Chrom is town, or he is looking for Firm to give a scum read on me, or both. Either way, Firm is the most likely town to get onto my wagon at this point, so it is good setup.

Here we have Aqua ask Firm again for their opinion on his case on Chromatically. + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe.

Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on:
1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it.
2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody.
Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these.

The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot.

Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him.

I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly.

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote:
On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy.


The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though.

My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please.


Remember that this was the case that Aqua put forth in his very first post of the game. It was not a strong case and he knew it would never stand, so it was a good way to both give people a town read on his scumbuddy and also create some distance within the scum team. Firm responds that he thinks Chrom is town, which is exactly what Aqua wanted and why he asked him twice. Aqua has now gotten Firm (the person he thinks he can get to vote for me) to say that the scumbuddy that Aqua has his vote on (Chrom) is town. Well played Aqua.

Shorlty after, Aqua posts this + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:48 FirmTofu wrote:
As for Chromatically...
Your case is extremely weak.
On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
Regarding scum
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.

1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.

On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?

Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.

2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.

##Vote: Chromatically

Addressing your point 1), you are going off a bad feeling. Feelings don't cut it for me. I need evidence to make a move.

I suppose that's a fair enough position to hold. I've personally found that my reads based on 'feelings' are often more accurate than those where I carefully assemble 'evidence'. This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII.
Show nested quote +

Addressing point 2), it seems quite town to me because it's forcing lurkers to talk. Talking is good for town, so I see this move as something a townie would do.

Asking questions is a town-y kind of thing to do, I agree. However, in my mind it is only significantly town-y when there is an actual plan behind those questions. By comparison, Chromatic was asking pretty generic questions without any real point or follow-up. Asking other people for their reads while having shared none of his own does not sit well with me.

Show nested quote +

There are a few other things that make me think Chromatically is town. He was the first person to point out the foolish aspects of Hurricane's poorly thought-out claim. What incentive would mafia have to steer town in the right direction?

Pointing out that some plan or another is stupid before anyone else does is a really cheap way of accumulating town-cred without committing to anything. Someone was going to shoot that plan down either way, so a scum player would have nothing to gain from not shooting it down.

All this being said, I think that what he's done so far could plausibly be explained by a town mentality as well as a scum one. If he comes back tomorrow and starts playing a good town-game I'll be looking to lynch somebody else. For the meantime, though, my vote and intention stays.


There he gets in that his read on Chrom is based on feelings rather than evidence. He is telling us that there is no good reason to suspect Chrom while he still has his vote on Chrom. He closed by saying that if Chrom starts to play a good town game then he will move his vote to someone else, which in this case will be the person that Chrom votes for because they are scumbuddies.

Here Aqua mocks Firm for voting due to inactivity because part of their plan was that Firm would vote for me, and he wants to make sure that Firm will move his vote. + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 19:35 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 18:55 fyfy wrote:
I don't know why I'm being voted day 1 when I haven't posted anything yet, I'm sure this kind of behaviour is exactly what the scum wants us to do. I'm sorry if there's no meta on me cause this is my first game and I would like to have my first game where I am not dead the first day. I can honestly assure everyone that I am town and killing me is a bad idea.


EDIT: I know I sound scummy but I guess that's what you're all going to have :/

You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious.

I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours.


Chromatically gets back online and makes this post: + Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:
Quoted Player List for reference:
On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote:
The Players

  1. Hurricane Sponge
  2. Onegu
  3. Chromatically
  4. Xzavier
  5. StiMaDDict
  6. FirmTofu
  7. fyfy
  8. hzflank
  9. Alakaslam
  10. Aquanim
  11. Spicydinosaur
  12. LoneMeow


We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow.

You wound me.

Regarding claims
I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles.

The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum.

Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means.

No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.)

Regarding scum
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.

1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.

On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?

Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.

2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.

##Vote: Chromatically

Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells.

Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it.

If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them?

Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason?

You also said:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:

This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII.

Oh, this feels more like the scum Chromatic from XXXI?

I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and Nns.


I take that as: 'Okay Aqua, time to unvote me now because I am going to try to start a wagon on someone else and it would not look as good for you to move your vote directly from me to them'.

Surprise surprise, in the very next post Aqua unvotes Chrom, which we all knew would happen after reading Aqua's very first post in this game (where he voted for Chrom). The most important line in this post by Aqua is: 'Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you', because that is him paving the way for Chrom to begin the mis-lynch attempt.

And then finally Chrom makes a case against me and votes.

Now, it would be easier for me to vote if I had an individual scum read, but since I am fairly confident that both Aqua and Chrom are scum, I am going to vote for Chrom because I think doing so will force Aqua to take a very strong stance one way or the other. Chrom already has his vote on me, so if I vote Aqua then Chrom does not need to make a decision and can just leave his vote where it is.

##Vote: Chromatically

I almost agree with everything you said. The problem arises when you realize that the case you've made for aqua is a hell of a lot stronger than the case you've made for Chromatically. Is this something you have overlooked? Or are you deliberately weaving a story to pit town against one another? For the time being, it's hard to tell one way or the other, but I did enjoy reading.


I realize that my post focused mostly on Aqua, but my case was that they were working as a team. Any case I have against Aqua alone would be so weak that even I would not vote based on it. If Aqua is scum and Chrom is town then Aqua is much more skilled at this that I am, as it would mean he made it look like he was working with Chrom without Chrom becoming aware of it, and that Chrom played right into his hands. I do not believe that, it makes my connections less likely, and going down that route is more likely to split the vote.

Regardless, I see your story as a plausible conspiracy theory, at best. Acting upon it without further evidence is dangerous. Most of your post relies on speculation about the player's true motives.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 19:06 GMT
#314
On June 25 2013 03:41 Chromatically wrote:
What's really bizarre is how quickly Tofu agreed with this case. You'd better explain yourself too.

I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 20:13 GMT
#322
Chromatically, if you are indeed town, what possible reason could hzflank have to tunnel you if he was scum?

1) It draws attention to himself.
2) You flip town, everyone automatically blames him

The only possible explanations are either that you are both town, or that Chromatically is scum and hzflank is town. In my opinion, hzflank would be taking an extremely risky move as scum that is far too risky to take. For that reason, he remains innocent in my eyes.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 20:15 GMT
#323
On June 25 2013 04:10 Chromatically wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 04:06 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 25 2013 03:41 Chromatically wrote:
What's really bizarre is how quickly Tofu agreed with this case. You'd better explain yourself too.

I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion.

Why do you think that he is town? Did you read my case?

Where's the town motivation in making up a story purely to hurt my credibility?

Your case was good. However, in light of recent developments, I consider hzflank to be solidly town. Read my previous post for an explanation.

A townie's motivation to hurt your credibility is to draw attention off of himself and onto his accuser. If he knows he is town, and some idiot is tunneling him, he is likely to see the idiot unfavorably, no?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 20:56 GMT
#327
I would like to switch gears into a more constructive discussion.

My Case Against SpicyDinosaur
Play-by-play:
Spicy starts off with an innocuous "Hey everyone", but is met with an immediate (harmless) accusation by Chromatically.
On June 24 2013 11:09 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote:
Why so scummy, Spicy?


Please point out and explain exactly what you think is scummy.

Here we can see him blowing it out of proportion. With this, we can deduce that he is probably a blue role, alignment unclear OR that he has a overly defensive personality. I have stated this sentiment earlier in the thread.

On June 24 2013 11:17 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?


Not taking it super seriously, just busting you back. I posted in the thread then went back to reddit. Checked the thread again after a few minutes. I'll be around tonight and early tomorrow morning.

And hey Xzavier.


Here we see Chromatically respond to Spicy's defensive post. Spicy downplays his actions as mere friendly banter and continues on his way. This is consistent with his previous post and is mostly harmless.

After a few hours, Hurricane shows up and posts his "Case for Spicy"
On June 24 2013 12:28 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
The Case for Spicy:

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone


Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:09 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote:
Why so scummy, Spicy?


Please point out and explain exactly what you think is scummy.


Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:17 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?


Not taking it super seriously, just busting you back. I posted in the thread then went back to reddit. Checked the thread again after a few minutes. I'll be around tonight and early tomorrow morning.

And hey Xzavier.


He later comes in with some actual(if not elegant) points on the game, but they're both just him defending his play in previous games:

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:42 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:36 Chromatically wrote:
Alright, I see. What do you think of Xzavier so far?


Spamming more than I like.


Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:53 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:43 hzflank wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:25 Chromatically wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 24 2013 11:17 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?


Not taking it super seriously, just busting you back. I posted in the thread then went back to reddit. Checked the thread again after a few minutes. I'll be around tonight and early tomorrow morning.

And hey Xzavier.

Hmm.

In both other newbie games, you started out with a policy post about lurkers. Any particular reason why you changed for this game?

I noticed that too.
This is Spicy's first post in his previous game, where he was town:
On June 06 2013 10:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone, I'll get the ball rolling. One of the most important things I've learned about day 1 is to make sure that town is active and posting USEFUL information and not just fluff. Lurkers do nothing to help town and are scummy. As such, I will and I encourage others, to pressure lurkers to post.

That is quite a lot more content than his first post in this thread:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone


Sheeping off of others opinions already?

Also heres the QT chat i was referring too. Though i dont know how to post to a specific QT box
Heres the QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/YXgCU77iVMsa
and its posts: 11, 16, 21.

Spicydinosaur
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18810769


Fluffity fluff fluff fluff, I will, Fluffity fluff.
vote spicy as not the towniest MOFU in thread.



umasi xzav and yvanna are town
random guy that thinks hes better than he is and fferyl are probably town but not that much

i'd lynch firere and spicy for now
not sure about the third




spicy should be killed with fire



Furthermore you should look back at my other 2 games if you want to see what my openings were. They too were different.


Not my favorite play in the world, but at least it's content.

Honestly, this isn't much of a case. What is interesting however, is Spicy's disproportionate response to it.

On June 24 2013 12:30 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 12:10 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Alright, it appears that my plan has oversights that are unacceptable risks at this juncture. Thank you to the veteran players (or just simply better players) who found them so quickly. Personally, I'm more concerned about Chromatic's point (regarding letting mafia call their shot on blues) than the risk of a mafia-tracker claiming NN, but I will not protest if we continue the scum-hunt without regard for my posted plan.

To me, everyone who is posting one-liners looks spammy to me, but I think the 'everyone is scum until they convince me otherwise' mentality isn't the worst thing in the world. Spicy and Xzavier are on my radar for the fluff and nonsense at the beginning. Chromatically and FirmTofu seem the most town as they were very quick to point out what were (in their view) flaws in a plan to move forward that may have compromised the town.


An intro post saying hi and then answering questions is now fluff?

If you want to talk about fluff then look to your first post.


Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Ugh, let's avoid the 'should we lynch lurkers talk' shall we?

I'm gonna go ahead and post the play I had written earlier this week analyzing this game from a pro-town perspective. If any of my analysis is off-base, please jump in and steer me back on track.

Pre-written segment starts now:

Alright, chums. First let me state that in NO WAY is the following message a call for a mass claim. If you are the Parity Cop (assuming you even exist), DO NOT SAY SO. In fact, if you're our town's parity cop, it's probably better if you appear to ignore what I'm about to say completely. Same goes for Trackers and Watchers. DO NOT CLAIM. But read carefully, because you are a big part of whether we succeed or fail (whether we follow my plan or not).


Nothing useful. All you say is dont claim or dont listen to you.

Show nested quote +

Now everyone, pay attention: Looking over the roles, the extremely juicy pro-town potential jumped right off the page at me, as I hope it did to many of you. Trackers can tell us if a person visits someone. Pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Watcher, who can pick a person and sees all who visit them. Obviously, this means we can try to guess the guy who's going to be mafia-killed, and we have a couple shots at seeing if he either gets visited, or manage to Track the mafia member who happens to be tagged to do the deed. Not great odds on either, but still better than nothing.

My plan utilizes each role to their maximum potential. Because we are not guaranteed to have a Tracker, Watcher, or even a Parity Cop, it's important that for the roles we DO get, we use them efficiently. The Watcher needs to guess the target they think will be mafia-killed tonight. This is up to your judgement, but I'll make a recommendation later today.



Just restating whats in the OP. spam

Show nested quote +

The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town.


Horrible idea for someone to claim at all this early.

Show nested quote +

I can elaborate further, but I feel like you can all piece together whatever holes are out there without me holding your hand even further. This is an extremely pro-town set-up (assuming there aren't a bunch of red herrings in which case, Hi I'm sponge, and I just gave you all the book on me.) and I'd like to move fast before mafia can organize their thoughts in their private little forum. If we move fast, and force independent action, they lose one of their many advantages.


More fluff with nothing of substance.

Scum Radar: BEEP BEEP BEEP BEEP
Holy bananas, did Spicy go full ad hominem today! Resorting to cheap personal attacks to discredit Hurricane's arguments(or lack thereof), further reinforces the fact that Spicy is extremely afraid of dying. A blue town member would try to dissect the argument and point out its flaws.Spicy makes no attempt to contribute to the discussion at all.

After posting a bit further and defending himself from some of my accusations, he takes an 8 hour hiatus; I would assume he slept.

He returns with his case against me. (Not going to quote it because it messes up my bbcode)

As I have already refuted all his points, I will not do so again. The important point to note is that he seems to be fishing for scum in me where there is none. This makes it seem as though he wants to discredit me so that others will stop listening to what I have to say.

Most of the issues he has with me are shared between various other people as well. It is truly odd that he chooses me as a target instead of the others. Am I dangerous to him in some way? If so, how?

Another issue that may be useful later is his subtle defense of fyfy that worked wonders to nail me as an idiot for having voted him. Everyone fell for it, but for the time being, I have linked Spicy and fyfy as possible teammates.

On June 25 2013 02:12 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 01:23 Chromatically wrote:
I've been feeling Tofu as town.

His opinion about meta is really wierd, but I think it's town-based. Would scum be willing to stand out and draw so much attention to themselves for no reason by espousing an unpopular opinion? I don't think so.

I don't like how conciliatory he is about his read on you ("I am not saying you are definitely scum or anything like that."), that feels like he's trying not to cause waves.

In general though, he seems comfortable in-thread and he's freely posting.
Also,
On June 24 2013 12:36 FirmTofu wrote:
I actually do believe Spicydinosaur is scummy, but not for the reasons that Hurricane Sponge states.

In all of his posts, he is extremely defensive. At the slightest mention of someone accusing him of anything, he flares up in his own defense. This could be due to his personality or it could be that he is extremely afraid of getting lynched. If it is indeed the latter, he is likely to be a powerful role, town or mafia. This is my preliminary assessment.

(It's funny that this real analysis is in agreement with my fluff analysis at the beginning of the game)

I think the first sentence shows a clear town urge to find scum. As scum, it would be easy to sheep Sponge's read on you. He feels that it's necessary to clarify his personal reasoning, though, which means that he's honestly thinking about who is scum.


The bolded part what bothers me. Trying not to make waves is a perfect way to go unnoticed in a game. Too much activity and everyones looking at you, too little and your a lurker who gets a big spotlight on you.

This is the nail in the coffin. Chromatically sums up succinctly why the town aspects of me outweigh the scum aspects, but Spicy deliberately highlights the scum aspects and emphasizes them to justify his reasoning. His silence on the town aspects of me indicates that he cannot refute those points, but he still refuses to take his vote off of me.

Whether it be arrogance or a scum-tell, Spicy is definitely a suspicious individual that needs to be looked into.

##Vote: SpicyDinosaur
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 21:37 GMT
#331
Yay! Chromatically, could you have a look at Spicy's filter for me and strongly consider voting him? Thanks!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 21:49 GMT
#334
@Spicy

2) You aren't deconstructing his argument paragraph by paragraph, you are just stating that he is full of shit without giving any explanation as to why. Where is the substance? Please point me to the post where you discredited his theory, because I think you might be making things up here.

3) You defended fyfy while accusing me of not voting for Stim instead of fyfy. There was no reason to say that when both were perfectly good lurker targets that were largely interchangeable.

4) Fair enough

5) Sometimes someone needs to point out the obvious when no one is actually discussing it. If anything, this is a town move, not a scum move.

6) My mistake. I mistakenly assumed you had voted me, so that point of mine is void. However, I will address some of your counter-arguments.

7) Okay sure, but this is still standard procedure for scum. Scum wouldn't want to be the driving force behind a lynch that they know to be town because they would have to deal with the consequences of the flip the following day.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 21:52 GMT
#335
On June 25 2013 06:42 Chromatically wrote:
I'll look at it when I get back, as well as finish another reread. I think that we're looking in the wrong place,

I'm looking more towards the Xzav/Alaka/Stim/Meow semi-/lurker area.

They are potential scum, sure, but it's always harder to convince people that semi-lurkers are scum because they don't post enough to allow us to get a good read off of them. Have a look at Spicy, let me know your thoughts on some other people, and we can agree to vote on someone.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 22:13 GMT
#338
On June 25 2013 06:58 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 06:49 FirmTofu wrote:
@Spicy

2) You aren't deconstructing his argument paragraph by paragraph, you are just stating that he is full of shit without giving any explanation as to why. Where is the substance? Please point me to the post where you discredited his theory, because I think you might be making things up here.


I failed quoted it in my post i dont see how you missed it. Additionally whats there to discuss when he was simply restating what the roles were and what they did.

Show nested quote +

3) You defended fyfy while accusing me of not voting for Stim instead of fyfy. There was no reason to say that when both were perfectly good lurker targets that were largely interchangeable.


I stated exactly why there was a reason. because stim posted right at the start of d1 then lurked. I felt the lurkers were not equal at the time (before fyfy started posting) so it was a curious choice.

Show nested quote +

5) Sometimes someone needs to point out the obvious when no one is actually discussing it. If anything, this is a town move, not a scum move.


In the games ive played its always seen as a scum move even if done by a townie.

Show nested quote +

7) Okay sure, but this is still standard procedure for scum. Scum wouldn't want to be the driving force behind a lynch that they know to be town because they would have to deal with the consequences of the flip the following day.


If i thought you were scum i would have no hesitation to vote you first. Like i said before i found your play scummyish and this vote felt very retaliatory which isn't a scum move.


2) That quote was referring to Aquanim's suggestion to get the NN to roleclaim, not Hurricanes'. Are you trying to deliberately mislead us?

3) My point is your reason is stupid. What difference does one line of posting make? Seriously? Accusing me of being scum based on one line that someone else wrote?

5) What...? Just...what? WHO CARES HOW IT'S ALWAYS SEEN!?!!? If a townie is known to do something like it, why in the world would you see it as a scum move??? If anything, you should see it as a neutral move because both scum and town are known to do it.

7) You aren't even responding to what I said. The fact that you didn't vote me is indicative of the fact that you are scum! To clarify, I'm not voting you because you accused me and didn't vote me. I'm voting you because of the reasons I have stated throughout this thread that suggest that you are scum. Whether you vote me or not is largely irrelevant, so trying to justify your actions isn't helping you at all.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 22:46 GMT
#340
On June 25 2013 07:28 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 07:13 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 25 2013 06:58 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 25 2013 06:49 FirmTofu wrote:
@Spicy

2) You aren't deconstructing his argument paragraph by paragraph, you are just stating that he is full of shit without giving any explanation as to why. Where is the substance? Please point me to the post where you discredited his theory, because I think you might be making things up here.


I failed quoted it in my post i dont see how you missed it. Additionally whats there to discuss when he was simply restating what the roles were and what they did.


3) You defended fyfy while accusing me of not voting for Stim instead of fyfy. There was no reason to say that when both were perfectly good lurker targets that were largely interchangeable.


I stated exactly why there was a reason. because stim posted right at the start of d1 then lurked. I felt the lurkers were not equal at the time (before fyfy started posting) so it was a curious choice.


5) Sometimes someone needs to point out the obvious when no one is actually discussing it. If anything, this is a town move, not a scum move.


In the games ive played its always seen as a scum move even if done by a townie.


7) Okay sure, but this is still standard procedure for scum. Scum wouldn't want to be the driving force behind a lynch that they know to be town because they would have to deal with the consequences of the flip the following day.


If i thought you were scum i would have no hesitation to vote you first. Like i said before i found your play scummyish and this vote felt very retaliatory which isn't a scum move.


2) That quote was referring to Aquanim's suggestion to get the NN to roleclaim, not Hurricanes'. Are you trying to deliberately mislead us?

3) My point is your reason is stupid. What difference does one line of posting make? Seriously? Accusing me of being scum based on one line that someone else wrote?

5) What...? Just...what? WHO CARES HOW IT'S ALWAYS SEEN!?!!? If a townie is known to do something like it, why in the world would you see it as a scum move??? If anything, you should see it as a neutral move because both scum and town are known to do it.

7) You aren't even responding to what I said. The fact that you didn't vote me is indicative of the fact that you are scum! To clarify, I'm not voting you because you accused me and didn't vote me. I'm voting you because of the reasons I have stated throughout this thread that suggest that you are scum. Whether you vote me or not is largely irrelevant, so trying to justify your actions isn't helping you at all.


1) Now you are going with personal insults that you claimed i did on someone else? The quote was talking about the same issue... ie NN.

2) As for fyfy...You claimed there was no difference in the lurkers, i pointed out that there WAS a difference now its a stupid reason? I didnt accuse u of scum off of one line, thats why it was included in a whole post of other reasons.

3) You voted for me when you thought i had voted you. you were wrong then. You cant go back and change your rational for voting me saying its now because i DIDNT vote you and the fact that i didnt vote you is somehow now irrelevent

Show nested quote +

The fact that you didn't vote me is indicative of the fact that you are scum! To clarify, I'm not voting you because you accused me and didn't vote me. I'm voting you because of the reasons I have stated throughout this thread that suggest that you are scum. Whether you vote me or not is largely irrelevant, so trying to justify your actions isn't helping you at all.


the bolded is contradictory and makes no sense.

4) The fact that you are not quoting 1/2 of my counterpoints from my original reply means you conceded them and it shows how weak your argument is on a whole. You are constantly changing what your argument is about me just to fit your narrative that you have in your head.

1) I think it's fairly obvious to a third party that you were referring to Aquanim's post when you quoted the quote and that you are trying to draw attention away from your response to Hurricane.

2) For fyfy, I still hold that there is no difference between the lurkers and you claimed that there is a difference. I think your reasons for claiming that there is a difference are stupid and make no sense because only one line separated one from the other. Why do you continue to defend fyfy? It's quite intriguing.

3) NO. I did not vote for you because I thought you voted for me. I voted you because you accused me. I was under the assumption that you had voted for me, but I have already acknowledged that that was a mistake.

Remember this post, where you said, "Chrom did bring up some townie points on you and I dont have my vote on you because I wasn't convinced you were scum, otherwise it wouldn't be on it. "

Then I said, "Okay sure, but this is still standard procedure for scum. Scum wouldn't want to be the driving force behind a lynch that they know to be town because they would have to deal with the consequences of the flip the following day."

When I said that, I meant that it would still make sense for you to be scum when you have accused me but have not voted me because you want me dead, but don't want to be regarded as the cause of my death. Therefore, you being scum is perfectly compatible with you not voting for me. The fact that you have since backed off of your accusations against me is only furthering my suspicions that you are scum because you know that pursuing a lynch against me would lynch a townie and would ultimately end with your demise.

In other words, all of your actions are still compatible with you being scum, so my vote remains.

4) What? I quoted everything and responded to everything you said. Now you are just plain lying to discredit me.


I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 22:57 GMT
#343
I would remind everyone of the voting rules.


Voting rules:

  1. Voting is done in this thread. You cannot PM me your vote.
  2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion may not be counted. Vote counts will be updated whenever intermittently.
  3. No conditional voting.
  4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game.
  5. In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).
  6. You may vote for a No Lynch in the format: ##Vote: No Lynch
  7. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.


If you do not think Chromatically is scum, then please vote either 1) No lynch or 2) Someone else.
In the event of a tie, the person who gets voted up first, dies.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 23:05 GMT
#345
On June 25 2013 07:57 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 07:46 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 25 2013 07:28 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 25 2013 07:13 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 25 2013 06:58 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 25 2013 06:49 FirmTofu wrote:
@Spicy

2) You aren't deconstructing his argument paragraph by paragraph, you are just stating that he is full of shit without giving any explanation as to why. Where is the substance? Please point me to the post where you discredited his theory, because I think you might be making things up here.


I failed quoted it in my post i dont see how you missed it. Additionally whats there to discuss when he was simply restating what the roles were and what they did.


3) You defended fyfy while accusing me of not voting for Stim instead of fyfy. There was no reason to say that when both were perfectly good lurker targets that were largely interchangeable.


I stated exactly why there was a reason. because stim posted right at the start of d1 then lurked. I felt the lurkers were not equal at the time (before fyfy started posting) so it was a curious choice.


5) Sometimes someone needs to point out the obvious when no one is actually discussing it. If anything, this is a town move, not a scum move.


In the games ive played its always seen as a scum move even if done by a townie.


7) Okay sure, but this is still standard procedure for scum. Scum wouldn't want to be the driving force behind a lynch that they know to be town because they would have to deal with the consequences of the flip the following day.


If i thought you were scum i would have no hesitation to vote you first. Like i said before i found your play scummyish and this vote felt very retaliatory which isn't a scum move.


2) That quote was referring to Aquanim's suggestion to get the NN to roleclaim, not Hurricanes'. Are you trying to deliberately mislead us?

3) My point is your reason is stupid. What difference does one line of posting make? Seriously? Accusing me of being scum based on one line that someone else wrote?

5) What...? Just...what? WHO CARES HOW IT'S ALWAYS SEEN!?!!? If a townie is known to do something like it, why in the world would you see it as a scum move??? If anything, you should see it as a neutral move because both scum and town are known to do it.

7) You aren't even responding to what I said. The fact that you didn't vote me is indicative of the fact that you are scum! To clarify, I'm not voting you because you accused me and didn't vote me. I'm voting you because of the reasons I have stated throughout this thread that suggest that you are scum. Whether you vote me or not is largely irrelevant, so trying to justify your actions isn't helping you at all.


1) Now you are going with personal insults that you claimed i did on someone else? The quote was talking about the same issue... ie NN.

2) As for fyfy...You claimed there was no difference in the lurkers, i pointed out that there WAS a difference now its a stupid reason? I didnt accuse u of scum off of one line, thats why it was included in a whole post of other reasons.

3) You voted for me when you thought i had voted you. you were wrong then. You cant go back and change your rational for voting me saying its now because i DIDNT vote you and the fact that i didnt vote you is somehow now irrelevent


The fact that you didn't vote me is indicative of the fact that you are scum! To clarify, I'm not voting you because you accused me and didn't vote me. I'm voting you because of the reasons I have stated throughout this thread that suggest that you are scum. Whether you vote me or not is largely irrelevant, so trying to justify your actions isn't helping you at all.


the bolded is contradictory and makes no sense.

4) The fact that you are not quoting 1/2 of my counterpoints from my original reply means you conceded them and it shows how weak your argument is on a whole. You are constantly changing what your argument is about me just to fit your narrative that you have in your head.

1) I think it's fairly obvious to a third party that you were referring to Aquanim's post when you quoted the quote and that you are trying to draw attention away from your response to Hurricane.

2) For fyfy, I still hold that there is no difference between the lurkers and you claimed that there is a difference. I think your reasons for claiming that there is a difference are stupid and make no sense because only one line separated one from the other. Why do you continue to defend fyfy? It's quite intriguing.

3) NO. I did not vote for you because I thought you voted for me. I voted you because you accused me. I was under the assumption that you had voted for me, but I have already acknowledged that that was a mistake.

Remember this post, where you said, "Chrom did bring up some townie points on you and I dont have my vote on you because I wasn't convinced you were scum, otherwise it wouldn't be on it. "

Then I said, "Okay sure, but this is still standard procedure for scum. Scum wouldn't want to be the driving force behind a lynch that they know to be town because they would have to deal with the consequences of the flip the following day."

When I said that, I meant that it would still make sense for you to be scum when you have accused me but have not voted me because you want me dead, but don't want to be regarded as the cause of my death. Therefore, you being scum is perfectly compatible with you not voting for me. The fact that you have since backed off of your accusations against me is only furthering my suspicions that you are scum because you know that pursuing a lynch against me would lynch a townie and would ultimately end with your demise.

In other words, all of your actions are still compatible with you being scum, so my vote remains.

4) What? I quoted everything and responded to everything you said. Now you are just plain lying to discredit me.



1. i stand by my response to hurricanes post, his was full of fluff and lacked content. what i said in reply to aqua applies to hurricane because he was the one who started talking about the whole NN issue. It's pretty clear.

2. you keep insisting that im defending fyfy when all i have ever said is that stim looked scummier. YOU are the one who keeps saying that im defending him.

3. This point has been done to death and you keep changing what you are saying about it. First im scum for voting you then im scum for not voting you then im scum and my vote on you never mattered.

4. In your original post where you voted me you had your case. I countered with my 7 points and then you only responded to a few and acknowledged you were wrong on at least one. The fact that you didnt talk about the others shows that you backed off them.

Show nested quote +

Now you are just plain lying to discredit me.


As i said before, for someone who thinks im scum because you think i went personal on someone else, you are throwing insults around a lot.


1. I don't think it's clear at all. You can keep saying that, but it simply isn't true.

2. Of course I'm the one saying you are defending him. Who else would say it? By saying Stim looks scummier, you imply that fyfy doesn't look scummy. That's a way of defending him.

3. You continue to misinterpret my position. You are scum for accusing me on flimsy evidence. You are scum for withdrawing only when I accuse you back. You are scum for not withdrawing when Chromatically posted his views on my alignment. You are scum for plenty of things, but voting me isn't one of them. Your vote on me would have mattered if you had the opportunity to remove it, but it doesn't matter because you never actually voted me.

4. I responded to 6 of the 7 points, because the first one had already been discussed. Then, you responded to about 4 of my points. I responded to all of those, and we exchanged blows from there. I don't think you can rightfully say I am picking and choosing my arguments.

I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 23:06 GMT
#346
On June 25 2013 07:59 cDgCorazon wrote:
No need to condescend people, Tofu. Take that as a warning.

Fair enough, I got a little frustrated with repeating the same points over and over again. Sorry.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 24 2013 23:17 GMT
#348
Not going to continue this pointless argument.
On June 25 2013 08:14 Spicydinosaur wrote:
I've said everything i need to defend myself and anyone looking at it will see how weak your argument is.

That just about sums up my position as well. I would like to hear other people's thoughts on the matter.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 02:15 GMT
#360
On June 25 2013 11:09 Xzavier wrote:
okay, i just want to say that half of you are fucking retarded,


now, im watching day9. after him, im going to show you all how fucking retarded you are.

How quaint.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 02:33 GMT
#362
On June 25 2013 11:16 Chromatically wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 11:09 Xzavier wrote:
okay, i just want to say that half of you are fucking retarded,


now, im watching day9. after him, im going to show you all how fucking retarded you are.

Wow, you replied quickly for someone who has been mysteriously absent all day.

Also very, very defensive.

I got a warning for being moderately condescending in a heated debate and this guy gets off scot free for trashing half the town with vulgar language. Color me surprised.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 04:28 GMT
#383
This is good. We are starting to see two groups of people voting for 2 distinctly different people. This will tell us quite a bit post-lynch about who is aligned with who, regardless of the flip. I will not proclaim my leanings yet as we still have to hear from quite a few people and we still have some time before the lynch.

I believe hzflank, Xzavier, and Onegu have all voted Aquanim and Chromatically and Aquanim have both voted Xzavier.

It is funny that hzflank's theory could still be real.

I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 04:31 GMT
#385
On June 25 2013 13:28 FirmTofu wrote:
This is good. We are starting to see two groups of people voting for 2 distinctly different people. This will tell us quite a bit post-lynch about who is aligned with who, regardless of the flip. I will not proclaim my leanings yet as we still have to hear from quite a few people and we still have some time before the lynch.

I believe hzflank, Xzavier, and Onegu have all voted Aquanim and Chromatically and Aquanim have both voted Xzavier.

It is funny that hzflank's theory could still be real.



EBWOP: Add Meow to the list of people voting for Xzavier.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 05:45 GMT
#404
On June 25 2013 14:36 Xzavier wrote:
Okay. heres something plane and simple. what scum in their right mind would call everybody fkn retarded? thats a death wish as scum. it brings so much attention to you. but it CAN be useful as town.

How is calling everyone retarded useful as town? You are quite the character, sir.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 05:55 GMT
#408
On June 25 2013 14:49 Xzavier wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 14:45 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 25 2013 14:36 Xzavier wrote:
Okay. heres something plane and simple. what scum in their right mind would call everybody fkn retarded? thats a death wish as scum. it brings so much attention to you. but it CAN be useful as town.

How is calling everyone retarded useful as town? You are quite the character, sir.



It provokes reaction albiet im regretting that decision as i recieved a warning for it, rightfully so.
However its useless and counterproductive for scum play.

Well, your statement would be valid if you were referring to a singular person. By calling everyone all you do is piss everyone off and make yourself look like an asshole. Might want to keep that in mind for the future.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 06:16 GMT
#416
Hey Xzavier, what do you think about Spicy? Would you be willing to switch your vote onto him?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 07:35 GMT
#430
On June 25 2013 15:29 Xzavier wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 15:16 FirmTofu wrote:
Hey Xzavier, what do you think about Spicy? Would you be willing to switch your vote onto him?


Honestly not today. he did a really good jpb as town last game and gave some good insights.

After going threw his filter it seems like he was forced into a defensive posting pattern due to pressure. he hasnt said much recently.

Honestly i wouldnt mind lynching alakazam day 1.

But ill giv him a chance to respond.

Im really not liking chrom or auqa for their tunnelling me while ignoring logic and basing everything off of the fact that i havnt caught scum yet or made a case.

The fact that you are willing to change your vote to Alakazam but not Spicy is rather arbitrary. When facing death, a townie would be willing to change his vote to anyone to stay alive. You have sealed your fate in my eyes with this response and have furthered confirmed my suspicions of Spicy.

As it seems very few people agree with my suspicions of Spicy, I will defer to a sub-optimal lynch of you.
##Unvote: SpicyDinosaur
##Vote: Xzavier
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 07:48 GMT
#433
On June 25 2013 16:45 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 16:33 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 16:01 Onegu wrote:
On June 25 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote:
I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum.

##Vote: Aquanim

Can you explain this some more? What exactly about my play do you think is scum-motivated?

Can you please post your case against me as the only thing you have said is I didnt respond when things were going on, well I was going to sleep when HZ posted his case, I responded to the NN thing and have scum hunted and tried to create a useful town atmosphere.

I have no idea what this request has to do with the post you quoted, but whatever...

The first page and a half or so of your filter is just talking about policy, power roles and random fluff without any particular intention of finding scum. This isn't damning in as of itself, early game does tend to be like that, but the entirety of your efforts in the direction of finding scum is an overwhelming tunnel of myself.

As far as I can tell, you haven't looked at anyone else at all, and endlessly tunneling a likely lynch target for the day while repeating the same old arguments (made by other people before you, mostly) over and over is a good way to look active while not actually bringing anything new to the table or having to pretend to do some original scumhunting. You haven't made any significant and new contributions to the thread, which is scum's natural state.

That being said, I think it's possible that you're town and that you think tunneling me like this is accomplishing something, which is why I'm voting Xzavier over you.

Actually I have made a scum hunt albit small on alakaslam, I think he is noob scum which isnt as important as killing a scum who knows what they are doing.

Jesus Christ bud, if you think he's scum, by all means vote him. It's not like you know of any scum who know what they're doing, so you not voting for Alakasam is extremely suspicious to me.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 08:01 GMT
#436
Going to bed, be back in about 9 hours!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 16:03 GMT
#486
I've skimmed through the thread to get a handle on where people are leaning.

Scenario 1: Xzavier is town
Mafia should be distancing themselves from the lynch and somewhat defending him.

Scenario 2: Xzavier is mafia
Mafia should be vehemently arguing in his defense while also trying to distance themselves from him. It's a balancing act that is hard to do.

Keep an eye out for people who fall into the latter category for now.

On another note, I agree with Hurricane that StiM is the best lynch for today. However, letting Aqua die is simply not an option. We only lynch StiM if we know we can get enough votes.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 16:42 GMT
#496
Hey guys sorry to be that guy, but I made a preliminary vote count list and I figured I might as well show you until the mods show up.

Chromatically (0): Aquanim, hzflank
fyfy (0): FirmTofu
hzflank (0): Chromatically
FirmTofu (0): Alakaslam
Spicydinosaur (0): FirmTofu
Xzavier (4): LoneMeow, Chromatically, Aquanim, FirmTofu
Aquanim (4): Onegu, yfy, hzflank, Xzavier, Alakaslam, StiMaDDict
Alakaslam (1): Onegu
Hurricane Sponge (1): SpicyDinosaur
StiMaDDict (1): Hurricane Sponge

Not Voting:
NO ONE

Please correct if I made a mistake.

Xzavier is set to be lynched because of the tiebreaker. Assuming Onegu goes to the Aquanim lynch again, we will need Hurricane's vote to guarantee that Xzavier dies today instead of Aquanim. Everything is riding on one vote.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 16:45 GMT
#497
EBWOP: fyfy*
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 17:01 GMT
#499
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.

As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu

They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.

Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 17:06 GMT
#501
EBWOP: Add StiMaDDict to that list because we could have 4 mafia and no SK. Onegu/StiMaDDict is a coinflip for me.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 17:23 GMT
#507
On June 26 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.

As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu

They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.

Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.


To be honest I dont care who is killed if Xzavier flips town my vote will go on aquanim and if he flips scum I will vote Spicydinosaur. My current read on Xzavier is null with scum reads on alakaslam and aqua. With every post Alakaslam makes he looks more and more like noob scum to me.

Sounds great! Could you consider looking through Xzavier's filter and reading Chromatically's case against Xzavier and consider voting for him? I would be willing to take you off my scum list if you would do that.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 17:24 GMT
#509
On June 26 2013 02:22 Chromatically wrote:
You don't care who is killed?

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh
We are trying to convince him to vote Xzavier, not antagonize and interrogate him.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 17:25 GMT
#510
EBWOP: Change 'not' to 'don't'
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 17:51 GMT
#515
On June 26 2013 02:45 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Reacting to what I just posted, the ideal mafia play if they were down a man and the Aqua bandwagon looked doomed to fail would be to switch to Stim. They'd figure I'd switch my vote, and I think FirmTofu mentioned he found Stim fishy as well. Of course, they wouldn't do this if Stim were mafia.

We're about to see some interesting play, I think.

Excellent points, Hurricane. I concur. We shall see if the votes switches hands soon enough. If StiM ends up getting a random bandwagon in the last few hours of the day, I would actually keep my vote on Xzavier, for these reasons.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 20:31 GMT
#529
(tumbleweed) *cricket cricket* Does anyone want to discuss potential scenarios post lynch? We are wasting daylight, where town is strongest! Let's get to it.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 20:55 GMT
#535
On June 26 2013 05:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote:

If Xzavier flips town, I still probably won't be that convinced that Aqua is scum. These two events are independent of each other in my mind. It could be that both players are Town, and the mafia were simply supporting the bandwagon on the stronger pro-town player. Aqua hasn't posted in a while, but when he does, I like what I feel from him. Depending on Alakaslam's action, he may be a person of interest in questioning.


This is key. Both Chromatically and Aqua are far too pro-town for me to even consider them as scum at this point, regardless of the flip. They are pursuing a lynch so vehemently that they cannot possibly be scum.

Scum likes to hide. Scum likes to draw attention away from them. They aren't gonna take a huge risk and tunnel someone that they know isn't scum. It's simply illogical.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 21:00 GMT
#537
On June 26 2013 05:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 05:40 Chromatically wrote:
Onegu's apathy about this lynch is very bothersome to me, as town your vote is your strongest weapon and Onegu is just wasting his.

Not sure what it means until I see the flip, but not having an opinion on either of these candidates is weird.


He has an opinion. He thinks both of the current lynch candidates are scum. It's weird, but I see where he's coming from. My guess is that he's trying to establish a voting track record on who he believes is the most scummy person out there. Which happens to be neither of the current candidates. Even though he does believe they're both scum.

Huh, yeah... I guess that is weird.

Apathy is a sign of defeatist scum trying to win back the town's favor. Initially, he was very pro-lynching Aqua, now he is apathetic with a fairly low amount of developments?

Scummy see, scummy do.

Onegu might just be more scummy than Spicy at this point for me. That's quite a turnaround.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 21:07 GMT
#542
Does Day automatically end if we reach a majority on Xzavier?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 21:10 GMT
#545
On June 26 2013 06:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
EBWOP: GOD DAMMIT my first broken BBCode. My bad.

TL:DR Spicy is wasting his vote just like Onegu is. Why would Onegu be MORE scummy at this point?

Because his apathy is a scumtell. I already explained that. He's going from tunneling someone to apathy over the course of a handful of posts. Spicy is wasting his vote, sure... but Onegu is doing that and more.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 25 2013 23:26 GMT
#558
On June 26 2013 08:17 hzflank wrote:
I will try another angle:

LoneMeow was the first to vote on Xzavier. I think that LoneMeow is town. He has never looked scummy to me and he thought that Xzavier was scum for the start. It makes sense that LoneMeow would be the first to vote on Xzavier.

Next to add their vote was Chromatically. Despite my earlier attack, Chrom has been looking more and more town to me. The only reason that I can see a scum Chrom voting Xzavier when he did is if Aqua is also scum, and everyone thought that idea was ridiculous. Therefore, I expect most of you see Chrom as town and the first two people on the wagon as town.

Aqua was the third to vote. Most of you think Aqua is town. That means most of you must think that the first 3 people on the wagon are town.

Is that not odd to anyone? If three townies jump on a scum wagon then there should of been a counter play by the scum team by now. And yet I started the Aqua wagon and I am posting this. It does not make sense.

There was a counter play! The scum saw that you had already started a vote on Aqua and used that as an opportunity to draw attention away from Xzavier. While I strongly believe you are town because you were the one to start the lynch with some pretty good analysis, I do not believe that the other people pursuing the Aqua wagon are free from blame. The fact that they jumped on Aqua right after Xzavier's bandwagon was gaining momentum is indicative of this fact.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:11 GMT
#621
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.

Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.

How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.

Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.

Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.

Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.

Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.

1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge

Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.

1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam

Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!

The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum[/red] and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.

I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:15 GMT
#622
Okay, it seems that Chromatically and I already agree. (I didn't read his post before posting mine)
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:26 GMT
#625
Alakaslam, would you be willing to vote for Onegu on Day 2?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:34 GMT
#629
On June 26 2013 12:29 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 09:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 26 2013 09:27 Chromatically wrote:
Your case on Sponge? I have Sponge (and you) as strong town. I didn't much like Sponge's early game policy stuff either, but his recent posting is really townie. Look at page 2-3 of his filter particularly. He's freely offering opinions, posting a lot, interacting with others in a very townie way.

Your case only looks at his early posting, but look at his recent posting, because that's where the towniness is.

When I said "my case on Xzav", I meant this one:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692&currentpage=25#495
Has everyone read this?
I'm getting the feeling that it was missed.


I dont like the vote for the lurker as it seemed an easy cop out. Then his switch to xzavier doesnt help as i think xzavier isnt scum. He has picked up commenting about cases a lot more, but that's to be expected when accused. There was a huge shift in his play style before and after my vote on him. Perhaps he became more active to push the mislynch? I honestly dont know but looking at his filter it just feels scummy.

And your new case didnt really add anything new, just commented on xzaviers posts. At this point xzavier is going to be lynched barring some big last minute vote switches.

Spicy, work with sponge please. This will lead to town victory. You two (and Onegu) are the most clearheaded in the thread so far, and you've both been right in the face of bandwagon.

Learning, learning....

Have you ever stopped to consider that the reason they appear the most "clear headed" is because they know that the flip will be town? You realize that if they know the flip is town, they are scum? I mean, this is common sense. The reason they look smart is because they know people's alignment and can act accordingly.

Scum tell are when you find these leaps in logic that indicate that a logical step in their reasoning assumes certain alignments. You've got to keep looking for these things.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:37 GMT
#631
Town needs to get it through their head that Onegu has made a blatant scum tell and that he is the default lynch on day do barring an egregious error by one of the scum. This is of the utmost importance.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:38 GMT
#632
EBWOP: day two*
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:41 GMT
#636
On June 26 2013 12:36 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 12:26 FirmTofu wrote:
Alakaslam, would you be willing to vote for Onegu on Day 2?

Yeah, maybe, check my late filter. Depends on cases against him. I just gave my vote to a mislynch right after reading town off his filter. Do not expect voting confidence from me yet!

Going to homework, I need it! :p.

Potato may = paranoia. Possibly acute. Along with this homework, I am going to read the town section of the thread I linked again.

If you make cases against me folks don't do it based on the "lurking" I'm about to do for obvious reasons. -_-

Not only is the case laid out in plain sight for you to see, you are choosing, deliberately, to ignore our dire need to pursue this lynch. The case for Xzavier pales in comparison to the case we have on Onegu because we can work off the known fact that Xzavier flipped town.
Honestly, a lynch on Onegu should be a no-brainer for town at this point. I can think of no situation where a town-aligned person would behave in the way that he did.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:45 GMT
#639
On June 26 2013 12:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
@FirmTofu
Does this exonerate Alakaslam in your mind? (Onegu seemed to have the idea of planting the seeds for a Day 2 Alakaslam lynch)

Of course not. In my mind, Alakaslam is catapulting his way to the top of the scum ladder.

Assuming Onegu is scum, we can see that he chose to push the early stages of an Aqua lynch and then, when Xzavier was guaranteed to be lynched, Onegu switched his vote to Alakaslam based upon a fairly pathetic case.

My take?

Onegu is trying to use the last few hours of the day to place himself at odds with Alakaslam because they are both scum!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:48 GMT
#640
On June 26 2013 12:40 Chromatically wrote:
Tofu, I'm glad that we are thinking the same thing on Onegu.

I'm going to have another long look at Spicy and see if I can find some good reasons why he wasn't voting Xzav. It's possible that he might have been avoiding that for no reason to avoid suspicion.

I'm off the mind that the Xzav lynch had good reasoning behind it. Knowing what we knew, I would lynch him again (and a lot of strong town agreed with the reasoning, it seems).

I concur. The Xzavier lynch didn't actually have the highest chance of flipping scum for me; however, it definitely provided invaluable information that we can use throughout the game. I'm glad to see we agree.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:50 GMT
#641
On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote:
Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav.

I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim.

I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point.

P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink*
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 03:52 GMT
#643
On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 12:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.

Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.

How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.

Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.

Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.

Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.

Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.

1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge

Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.

1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam

Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!

The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.

I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.


Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon.
[/red]
You still aren't addressing your scum tell. Come back when you actually read my post please.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 05:10 GMT
#672
On June 26 2013 13:21 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 12:52 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote:
On June 26 2013 12:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.

Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.

How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.

Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.

Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.

Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.

Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.

1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge

Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.

1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam

Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!

The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.

I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.


Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon.

You still aren't addressing your scum tell. Come back when you actually read my post please.


My vote isnt a scum tell and neither is my apathy toward who get lynched, jeez think about it, me doing what I did is something only town would do, scum wouldnt do it because of all the backlash if scum really didnt care they would put thier vote on on of the two bandwagons and not say much as to why they voted(1). I gave you reasons for my vote and reasons why I was ok with both of them being lynched, none of that is a scumtell(2). The fact xzavier flipped town we should be looking at people who piled on to his bandwagon they would want to ensure the lynch of the person with the most votes so there isnt a last minute swich onto one of the scum.
[/red]

(1)Town wouldn't do it either because it is a scum-tell so the bolded point is invalid.
(2) Your vote was contradictory to your statements. It was a scumtell, you can't deny that.

You are simply saying "I'm right and you're wrong" and that really isn't much of a defense. You should be saying "I made a mistake and I meant to say..."

You are digging yourself deeper into a hole that you won't be able to crawl out of at this point.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 05:20 GMT
#676
On June 26 2013 14:10 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 12:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 26 2013 12:15 Alakaslam wrote:
On June 26 2013 11:51 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Both of the confirmed townies (see: dead) have stated support for Xzavier and suspicion of Aqua. Spicy also briefly mentioned that he was "not convinced on the aqua vote either and ill post my thoughts on that later", and was the most visible supporter of Xzavier. However, either I can't find those thoughts, or he never got the follow-up out because it was the opener to his Case against yours truly.

@Spicy

Do you feel like elaborating on your thoughts about Aqua now, or are they no longer relevant / valid?



O.O Can I do nothing right.


Now I see how scummy ^^ looks (I mean my post.)


Feh! What am I worried about. My Lynch would give town a lot of confusion though. Not good.

I get a strong feeling Mafia are actually pretty active this game, kind of puppetmastering and doing a good job of it. They've got me so far XD

No case for the above? Well, it's because of my general feeling based on the whole thread.

A lot of people accusing with weak cases or, like me, just avoiding accusing because they're worried their case will be weak (which is in itself scummy in a way- that worry).

You know? Really, I'm just very new and very wishy washy. Feel free to ask me stuff, I'll see it on my spare time and I'll try to answer. A lot of stuff I've done I have done to try to be a sideline resource to town. I haven't the best of skill at reading people anywhere, but one thing I can do is tell the truth and navigate TL. So ask me, try to entrap me and make me guilty worse than I am. I need some Town confirmation if I'm going to be useful, and that is the only way I can think of to confirm myself town. Otherwise, please just lynch me. + Show Spoiler +
"After all, you just lynched two townies with me. I'm CONFIRMED red, aren't I? So I'd be one less KP when gone"
If everyone thinks I'm scum, I'm just dead-weight because nobody believes me. So even scumreads from me become spam, and useless fluff.

Has anyone actually considered the motivation behind my filter?

I know why I look scummy, heck you guys convinced me (lol). So, I ask you. How do I fix that? What is at my disposal to help town? I thought towniness was any effort to aid town, not YOU MUST SCUMREAD THAT IS ONLY AID TO TOWN AND NO SHEEPING BRO, IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO USE YOUR VOTE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BECAUSE YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT + Show Spoiler +
what I just did with most of us. mind you, because trying to read scum less carefully...
. If that is actually true, then expect me to suck in the future. I will be a quick lynch.
+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=301748 I haven't followed this because I got nutzy after people said I was lurking. Like on page 11. "You don’t have to be a super-active poster to prove your innocence or be useful to the town." WELL AREN'T I A CLASS-A EXAMPLE OF THAT TRUTH. Rather, I have been disobeying "Don’t babble. If you speak without having a clear goal in mind, you impede the town and decrease everyone else’s productivity. This paralyzes town analysis and decision-making and allows mafia to hide in the chaos."



Not sure why you quoted me, but I just went through your whole filter. On a scale of Scum-to-Townie, I'd put you as a solid 'Potato'. I tried following your train of thought, and it damn near gave me a headache. If you can post thoughts in a much more concise manner from here on out, I'd consider it a personal favor.

You seem to be asking for homework, so I will give you some:

You associated yourself early with Onegu, even declaring that you would donate your vote to him to use as he pleased. What are your thoughts on him at this moment in light of his attitude toward how the the Day 1 lynch was shaping up late in the day? (Go read his filter. You do not have to respond in the next 10 seconds.)

Waitaminute I just sort I did this in reply to him.

Pah! Make your cases for a minute I swear I don't know if Onegu is scum or not, FirmTofu (who I DO think is town, he granted my wish) says Onegu scum slipped but I think it relies on me being scum and I know better. But iPhone, that is why i didn't see the error in my own post.

Tofu what page did you elaborate on?

Medic, I really hope you exist. You should know who to protect right now. If you think I'm asking for guard you are daft, but I assume you know who needs it.

It doesn't rely on you being scum at all. You flipping mafia is somewhat reliant on Onegu flipping mafia, however.
I believe my case against Onegu is 2 pages ago.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 05:23 GMT
#678
On June 26 2013 14:18 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 12:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.

Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.

How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.

Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.

Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.

Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.

Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.

1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge

Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.

1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam

Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!

The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.

I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.

Nvm, page 32. Huh. But... Then is your read on me not 100% scum?

Or do you mean that he would bus or just knew I would not be lynched? I SWORE I'd be lynched because I was a total fail, and I largely felt the case against Xzavier was a rust bucket until I read Aquanim's filter.

Hindsight is perfect, how did Onegu know at that time I would not be lynched?
[/red]
He was the only vote on you.
He was the first person to make a case against you.
His case was pathetic.
There were already 2 bandwagons going on against 2 people decision was which one of the two would be lynched.

He definitely knew that you wouldn't get lynched...
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 05:28 GMT
#682
So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team.

If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame.
If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him.

Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum.

The ball is in your court.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 05:32 GMT
#684
On June 26 2013 14:28 FirmTofu wrote:
So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team.

If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame.
If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him.

Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum.

The ball is in your court.

On that note, I believe it would be wise for the parity cop to check Onegu with someone else so that we can get some hard evidence to work with that confirms my theory. Use your best judgement to choose someone pro-town to use as the other pairing.

All of this is, of course, assuming that a parity cop exists.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 07:08 GMT
#718
Alakaslam, I don't know why Onegu helped you. Is it even relevant? It was before anything that was relevant to my case even occurred. It seems like you are just bringing that up as an excuse to avoid having to vote for Onegu.

On June 26 2013 15:45 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 14:28 FirmTofu wrote:
So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team.

If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame.
If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him.

Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum.

The ball is in your court.


You feel you need to bully the most inexperianced mafia player to vote for me? You have no case except a bogus scum tell so you have to bully someone to vote with you?

Bullying? I don't see how this is bullying at all. I'm giving him a choice that he can choose to accept or not and I letting him know the consequences of his decision.

At this point, Alakslam is looking for reasons to cast doubt on my case, which is just more fodder for the case against him. He will go down with the ship unless mafia cuts their losses and votes for you, Onegu.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 07:23 GMT
#723
On June 26 2013 16:11 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
(Quick note, Spicy definitely defended fyfy from Tofu for WAY longer than any sane person would have, much less a mafia. Based on that encounter, Spicy is supertown. I didn't manage to quote the entire exchange in the broken case post, but if you don't believe me, it's pretty easy to find. Just control-F 'Hitler' and work your way backwards.)

I beg to differ. Spicy was defending against my accusation that fyfy and Spicy were both mafia. Thus, "defending" fyfy was just an issue of self-preservation. If people think fyfy is town, people think he is town, therefore his obvious self-preservationist instinct would lead him to defend fyfy.

This is neither a scum-tell nor a town-tell.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 07:29 GMT
#726
On June 26 2013 16:23 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 16:08 FirmTofu wrote:
Alakaslam, I don't know why Onegu helped you. Is it even relevant? It was before anything that was relevant to my case even occurred. It seems like you are just bringing that up as an excuse to avoid having to vote for Onegu.

On June 26 2013 15:45 Onegu wrote:
On June 26 2013 14:28 FirmTofu wrote:
So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team.

If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame.
If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him.

Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum.

The ball is in your court.


You feel you need to bully the most inexperianced mafia player to vote for me? You have no case except a bogus scum tell so you have to bully someone to vote with you?

Bullying? I don't see how this is bullying at all. I'm giving him a choice that he can choose to accept or not and I letting him know the consequences of his decision.

At this point, Alakslam is looking for reasons to cast doubt on my case, which is just more fodder for the case against him. He will go down with the ship unless mafia cuts their losses and votes for you, Onegu.

Because when he helped me he helped town. Let me tack on to that question: why do you scum read me if not for Onegu's "rust bucket" case on me? Gogogo! I knew it was strong!

I agree you aren't bullying but nonetheless- explain why scum Onegu said "don't distract the thread" and "stop putting hypocritical posts and fluff".

I'm not against voting Onegu except that I just can't see mafia doing that so early! They want townies to play bad! Otherwise, yeah I have a null read on him. But the stuff that is town is great town IMO! Also, read Hurricane's findings. Not that Onegu couldn't still be scum but if he is Kudos, he is a prophetic mastermind.

The again, I hear ace is very dangerous.

Basically Tofu, make your case a little stronger and I take notice, otherwise go tunnel me! MI NE FREGGO!

Okay.

Onegu is using an easy tactic I like to call, "Say FirmTofu is distracting the thread and posting hypocritical posts and hopefully no one will lynch me" Notice how he isn't actually making a case against me even though he's saying I'm doing scummy things.

This is because he knows I am town, he knows he is scum, and he knows town will never bandwagon me. His best bet to stay alive is to discredit me and hope no one listens to me.

Also, Onegu isn't being pro-town by calling me scummy. He's being anti-town. Almost all of town agrees that I have been one of the most pro-town players this entire game.

Of course, all of what I just wrote is probably useless because if you are scum, as I suspect you are, you won't listen to anything I say. I hope you prove me wrong.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 07:35 GMT
#729
On June 26 2013 16:34 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 16:29 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 26 2013 16:23 Alakaslam wrote:
On June 26 2013 16:08 FirmTofu wrote:
Alakaslam, I don't know why Onegu helped you. Is it even relevant? It was before anything that was relevant to my case even occurred. It seems like you are just bringing that up as an excuse to avoid having to vote for Onegu.

On June 26 2013 15:45 Onegu wrote:
On June 26 2013 14:28 FirmTofu wrote:
So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team.

If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame.
If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him.

Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum.

The ball is in your court.


You feel you need to bully the most inexperianced mafia player to vote for me? You have no case except a bogus scum tell so you have to bully someone to vote with you?

Bullying? I don't see how this is bullying at all. I'm giving him a choice that he can choose to accept or not and I letting him know the consequences of his decision.

At this point, Alakslam is looking for reasons to cast doubt on my case, which is just more fodder for the case against him. He will go down with the ship unless mafia cuts their losses and votes for you, Onegu.

Because when he helped me he helped town. Let me tack on to that question: why do you scum read me if not for Onegu's "rust bucket" case on me? Gogogo! I knew it was strong!

I agree you aren't bullying but nonetheless- explain why scum Onegu said "don't distract the thread" and "stop putting hypocritical posts and fluff".

I'm not against voting Onegu except that I just can't see mafia doing that so early! They want townies to play bad! Otherwise, yeah I have a null read on him. But the stuff that is town is great town IMO! Also, read Hurricane's findings. Not that Onegu couldn't still be scum but if he is Kudos, he is a prophetic mastermind.

The again, I hear ace is very dangerous.

Basically Tofu, make your case a little stronger and I take notice, otherwise go tunnel me! MI NE FREGGO!

Okay.

Onegu is using an easy tactic I like to call, "Say FirmTofu is distracting the thread and posting hypocritical posts and hopefully no one will lynch me" Notice how he isn't actually making a case against me even though he's saying I'm doing scummy things.

This is because he knows I am town, he knows he is scum, and he knows town will never bandwagon me. His best bet to stay alive is to discredit me and hope no one listens to me.

Also, Onegu isn't being pro-town by calling me scummy. He's being anti-town. Almost all of town agrees that I have been one of the most pro-town players this entire game.

Of course, all of what I just wrote is probably useless because if you are scum, as I suspect you are, you won't listen to anything I say. I hope you prove me wrong.

You quoted me actually. Who called you scummy in here? Clarify? And I did not, I mean nobody did. Why are you defending against nothing?

You said make my case for Onegu stronger and I did. Read the quotes in order again. I'm not defending, I'm explaining what Onegu did and why he is scum.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 07:40 GMT
#731
On June 26 2013 16:36 Alakaslam wrote:
EBW+P oh. No dude he was calling me out on actually doing those things bro. That's what I'm saying, by shitting on me he was helping town. I was so dumb (still am) that I was making things worse the harder I tried to help.

First you say he was helping you and now you say he's shitting on you and that helped town. I'm really confused as to what you're getting at so do me a favor and quote what post you are referring to so I can provide you an adequate response.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 07:55 GMT
#737
On June 26 2013 16:43 Alakaslam wrote:
We both need to clarify. I am asking you to specifically state a reason why Onegu corrected my scumminess, until he decided I must be scum as I wasn't improving. Then I added, please make the case against me independent of what Onegu said. Do you think he was bussing earlier? He made his case for me before too but felt aqua was a better target.

But it is really this simple: if scum would tell a townie who was aiding his cause through spam to stop, explain how this is so And why. Do that, and you basically have my vote.

However, when we get paranoid we look scummy. I know by experience. Calm down.


Okay, I think I'm beginning to see what you're saying. Let me explain what happened.

Onegu "corrected" your "scumminess" because it's an easy way for him to appear as though he's pro-town.

He takes the newb player(forgive me for calling you this) and tells you that you are doing something wrong to get free town points.

It worked actually. I didn't really suspect Onegu as mafia until much later into the day.

The next event, when he accuses you of being scum, is a completely independent event. He used you to make himself appear as town because he knew Xzavier would flip town.

Before Xzavier's inevitable lynch, he didn't want to look like he supported that lynch because, naturally, people who lynch innocent people are usually scum, right?

So he realized he could vote someone else to make himself look super pro-town. After all, he didn't push for the Xzavier lynch so he's not gonna be targeted on day 2!

Fortunately, Chromatically and I didn't fall for his shenanigans. I'm hoping you don't either.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 08:01 GMT
#738
On June 26 2013 16:49 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 16:40 Aquanim wrote:
On June 26 2013 16:30 Alakaslam wrote:
On June 26 2013 16:25 Aquanim wrote:
On June 26 2013 16:11 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
(Quick note, Spicy definitely defended fyfy from Tofu for WAY longer than any sane person would have, much less a mafia. Based on that encounter, Spicy is supertown. I didn't manage to quote the entire exchange in the broken case post, but if you don't believe me, it's pretty easy to find. Just control-F 'Hitler' and work your way backwards.)

Could you explain to me how defending a townie is a "supertown" move? I see it as a pretty good way for a scum to be seen sincerely arguing something (because they know they're right about a townread), while not actually contributing to finding scum.
A quick glance over Spicy's posts indicates to me that all he's saying is "fyfy isn't the scummiest person in the thread" which is a long way from a committment to fyfy being town (which could be inconvenient for scum later).
Townies can defend other townies, but scum can do it too IMO.

Yeah, that was an ASSUMPTION alright. But what of this: as you are active, whose filter do you read at this time aqua?

I'm not reading filters at the moment, I'm living the rest of my life and occasionally checking the thread to see if anything interesting pops up.

Fair enough, I really should be sleeping right now for work tomorrow.

Cy'all!

Going to bed as well.

As an aside, I would like to say that this game is shaping up to be one of my favorites on this site so far. I'm really enjoying the heated debates and I hope no one finds me annoying or miserable. It's not my real personality, I'm actually a pretty nice guy. I just get all passionate sometimes and my brain feels like insulting everyone. Let me know if I'm being condescending because sometimes I can't distinguish it from whatever isn't condescending.

Thanks for making a great game guys(Remember: I don't actually hate you even if I sound like I do)
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 17:14 GMT
#780
On June 27 2013 01:47 Chromatically wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 01:31 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:23 Chromatically wrote:
Spicy, I think that Tofu's actions around the lynch were fine.

He thought that you were scummier, but after pushing you he saw that no one else was willing to vote you.

Instead of wasting his vote on someone who wouldn't be lynched (you), he moves to his second-best scumread (Xzav).


please look at what i wrote again. It is clear he said his second best read was stim

On June 26 2013 01:03 FirmTofu wrote:
I've skimmed through the thread to get a handle on where people are leaning.

Scenario 1: Xzavier is town
Mafia should be distancing themselves from the lynch and somewhat defending him.

Scenario 2: Xzavier is mafia
Mafia should be vehemently arguing in his defense while also trying to distance themselves from him. It's a balancing act that is hard to do.

Keep an eye out for people who fall into the latter category for now.

On another note, I agree with Hurricane that StiM is the best lynch for today. However, letting Aqua die is simply not an option. We only lynch StiM if we know we can get enough votes.


He then does nothing with trying to get stim lynched and just sheeps onto xzavier.


Oh yeah, that's a good point that I missed.

Just a few posts later he says:
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.

As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu

They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.

Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.


Stim isn't even in his proposed scumteam.

Tofu, can you clarify this situation?

Ah, of course. What happened was that I wanted Hurricane to switch his vote from StiM to Xzavier so that Aqua(who i had a stong town read on) wouldn't die. I was also very wary of StiM regardless because he was lurking hardcore. To win Hurricane over to our side, I got on his level. Obviously, I wasn't bein completely honest when I said StiM was the best lynch, but I knew that Aqua couldn't be allowed to die and this was my tactic to save him.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 17:21 GMT
#781
I've got to quote everything and respond to accusations so give me some time.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 17:54 GMT
#785
On June 27 2013 02:36 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 02:14 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:47 Chromatically wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:31 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:23 Chromatically wrote:
Spicy, I think that Tofu's actions around the lynch were fine.

He thought that you were scummier, but after pushing you he saw that no one else was willing to vote you.

Instead of wasting his vote on someone who wouldn't be lynched (you), he moves to his second-best scumread (Xzav).


please look at what i wrote again. It is clear he said his second best read was stim

On June 26 2013 01:03 FirmTofu wrote:
I've skimmed through the thread to get a handle on where people are leaning.

Scenario 1: Xzavier is town
Mafia should be distancing themselves from the lynch and somewhat defending him.

Scenario 2: Xzavier is mafia
Mafia should be vehemently arguing in his defense while also trying to distance themselves from him. It's a balancing act that is hard to do.

Keep an eye out for people who fall into the latter category for now.

On another note, I agree with Hurricane that StiM is the best lynch for today. However, letting Aqua die is simply not an option. We only lynch StiM if we know we can get enough votes.


He then does nothing with trying to get stim lynched and just sheeps onto xzavier.


Oh yeah, that's a good point that I missed.

Just a few posts later he says:
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.

As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu

They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.

Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.


Stim isn't even in his proposed scumteam.

Tofu, can you clarify this situation?

Ah, of course. What happened was that I wanted Hurricane to switch his vote from StiM to Xzavier so that Aqua(who i had a stong town read on) wouldn't die. I was also very wary of StiM regardless because he was lurking hardcore. To win Hurricane over to our side, I got on his level. Obviously, I wasn't bein completely honest when I said StiM was the best lynch, but I knew that Aqua couldn't be allowed to die and this was my tactic to save him.


So you admit you are a liar. Scummy as hell.

Lying is definitely not a scum tell. Read the mafia guide by Ver.
On August 26 2010 13:08 Ver wrote:
Also, this is a good point to address the misconception that 'lying=mafia,' which is clearly not the case. I lie all the time as town, and much more rarely as mafia. Some may condemn this as inferior play, but lying, among other 'anti-town plays,' lets you open new routes of play that are ordinarily inaccessible if you behave as a 'perfect townie.' Most of the time you have to take a risk if you want to win. Of course the execution is everything, as lying for no gain is just going to make it harder for the town to do anything. And of course, many town players will lie on accident, without reason, or for some bizarre reason or another that you have no way of knowing. A point that will be emphasized continuously is the necessity to differentiate between mafia and bad townie play. You can't just lynch people and when they pop green excuse yourself by saying 'oh they were anti-town anyways.' The goal is to kill mafia, period.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 18:10 GMT
#793
On June 27 2013 03:03 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 03:00 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 27 2013 02:36 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 27 2013 02:14 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:47 Chromatically wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:31 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:23 Chromatically wrote:
Spicy, I think that Tofu's actions around the lynch were fine.

He thought that you were scummier, but after pushing you he saw that no one else was willing to vote you.

Instead of wasting his vote on someone who wouldn't be lynched (you), he moves to his second-best scumread (Xzav).


please look at what i wrote again. It is clear he said his second best read was stim

On June 26 2013 01:03 FirmTofu wrote:
I've skimmed through the thread to get a handle on where people are leaning.

Scenario 1: Xzavier is town
Mafia should be distancing themselves from the lynch and somewhat defending him.

Scenario 2: Xzavier is mafia
Mafia should be vehemently arguing in his defense while also trying to distance themselves from him. It's a balancing act that is hard to do.

Keep an eye out for people who fall into the latter category for now.

On another note, I agree with Hurricane that StiM is the best lynch for today. However, letting Aqua die is simply not an option. We only lynch StiM if we know we can get enough votes.


He then does nothing with trying to get stim lynched and just sheeps onto xzavier.


Oh yeah, that's a good point that I missed.

Just a few posts later he says:
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.

As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu

They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.

Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.


Stim isn't even in his proposed scumteam.

Tofu, can you clarify this situation?

Ah, of course. What happened was that I wanted Hurricane to switch his vote from StiM to Xzavier so that Aqua(who i had a stong town read on) wouldn't die. I was also very wary of StiM regardless because he was lurking hardcore. To win Hurricane over to our side, I got on his level. Obviously, I wasn't bein completely honest when I said StiM was the best lynch, but I knew that Aqua couldn't be allowed to die and this was my tactic to save him.


So you admit you are a liar. Scummy as hell.


This can be explained as a difference of playstyle. You have been recently accused of not doing everything in your power to save Xzavier from lynch when you thought he was town. Tofu is demonstrating what he's willing to do to save someone he thinks is Town from a lynch.


Tofu was one of the people on the wagon. Go back and read how the votes went down. Look at exactly who voted when and the reasons given. If Tofu is town then at least one other person on that wagon is scum. Why is Tofu wasting so much time on people who were not on the wagon?

He meant to say Aqua, not Xzavier. I already explained why I'm "wasting" time with people that weren't on the wagon.

People on the wagon are more likely to be town than people not on the wagon.

Remember that scum KNEW that Xzavier would not flip mafia. Why in the world would they get on a wagon that they knew would not flip mafia?

Logic dictates that their best course of action would be to say they think Xzavier is town, but NOT ACTUALLY TRY TO PREVENT THE LYNCH.

Who are the people who did that?
Onegu
SpicyDinosaur
Alakaslam
You

This is why this group of people is high on my scum list.

I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 18:18 GMT
#798
On June 27 2013 03:15 hzflank wrote:
If you think I was not trying to prevent the lynch then you have not read the thread. I tried, and you stopped me.

Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 08:26 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 26 2013 08:17 hzflank wrote:
I will try another angle:

LoneMeow was the first to vote on Xzavier. I think that LoneMeow is town. He has never looked scummy to me and he thought that Xzavier was scum for the start. It makes sense that LoneMeow would be the first to vote on Xzavier.

Next to add their vote was Chromatically. Despite my earlier attack, Chrom has been looking more and more town to me. The only reason that I can see a scum Chrom voting Xzavier when he did is if Aqua is also scum, and everyone thought that idea was ridiculous. Therefore, I expect most of you see Chrom as town and the first two people on the wagon as town.

Aqua was the third to vote. Most of you think Aqua is town. That means most of you must think that the first 3 people on the wagon are town.

Is that not odd to anyone? If three townies jump on a scum wagon then there should of been a counter play by the scum team by now. And yet I started the Aqua wagon and I am posting this. It does not make sense.

There was a counter play! The scum saw that you had already started a vote on Aqua and used that as an opportunity to draw attention away from Xzavier. While I strongly believe you are town because you were the one to start the lynch with some pretty good analysis, I do not believe that the other people pursuing the Aqua wagon are free from blame. The fact that they jumped on Aqua right after Xzavier's bandwagon was gaining momentum is indicative of this fact.


Yes, you did try. I wasn't being fair when I added you to the list. I don't think you are scum, but you supporting Onegu's weak case against me was making me reconsider.

Anyway, you haven't addressed the core reasoning, so I take it that you agree?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 18:19 GMT
#800
On June 27 2013 03:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 03:10 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 03:03 hzflank wrote:
On June 27 2013 03:00 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 27 2013 02:36 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 27 2013 02:14 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:47 Chromatically wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:31 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:23 Chromatically wrote:
Spicy, I think that Tofu's actions around the lynch were fine.

He thought that you were scummier, but after pushing you he saw that no one else was willing to vote you.

Instead of wasting his vote on someone who wouldn't be lynched (you), he moves to his second-best scumread (Xzav).


please look at what i wrote again. It is clear he said his second best read was stim

On June 26 2013 01:03 FirmTofu wrote:
I've skimmed through the thread to get a handle on where people are leaning.

Scenario 1: Xzavier is town
Mafia should be distancing themselves from the lynch and somewhat defending him.

Scenario 2: Xzavier is mafia
Mafia should be vehemently arguing in his defense while also trying to distance themselves from him. It's a balancing act that is hard to do.

Keep an eye out for people who fall into the latter category for now.

On another note, I agree with Hurricane that StiM is the best lynch for today. However, letting Aqua die is simply not an option. We only lynch StiM if we know we can get enough votes.


He then does nothing with trying to get stim lynched and just sheeps onto xzavier.


Oh yeah, that's a good point that I missed.

Just a few posts later he says:
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.

As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu

They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.

Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.


Stim isn't even in his proposed scumteam.

Tofu, can you clarify this situation?

Ah, of course. What happened was that I wanted Hurricane to switch his vote from StiM to Xzavier so that Aqua(who i had a stong town read on) wouldn't die. I was also very wary of StiM regardless because he was lurking hardcore. To win Hurricane over to our side, I got on his level. Obviously, I wasn't bein completely honest when I said StiM was the best lynch, but I knew that Aqua couldn't be allowed to die and this was my tactic to save him.


So you admit you are a liar. Scummy as hell.


This can be explained as a difference of playstyle. You have been recently accused of not doing everything in your power to save Xzavier from lynch when you thought he was town. Tofu is demonstrating what he's willing to do to save someone he thinks is Town from a lynch.


Tofu was one of the people on the wagon. Go back and read how the votes went down. Look at exactly who voted when and the reasons given. If Tofu is town then at least one other person on that wagon is scum. Why is Tofu wasting so much time on people who were not on the wagon?

He meant to say Aqua, not Xzavier. I already explained why I'm "wasting" time with people that weren't on the wagon.

People on the wagon are more likely to be town than people not on the wagon.

Remember that scum KNEW that Xzavier would not flip mafia. Why in the world would they get on a wagon that they knew would not flip mafia?

Logic dictates that their best course of action would be to say they think Xzavier is town, but NOT ACTUALLY TRY TO PREVENT THE LYNCH.

Who are the people who did that?
Onegu
SpicyDinosaur
Alakaslam
You

This is why this group of people is high on my scum list.



No, I meant what I said. I was addressing Spicy. Spicy is under suspicion because apparently he didn't defend Xzavier hard enough when he was a town read and one of the leading wagons:

From Chromatically: "What I don't like (and this is a general statement about Spicy, Stim, and Onegu) is that when your vote is not on a leading wagon, you should be doing your ABSOLUTE BEST to push your read. This is especially true if you have a town read on the leader. A townie would do everything that they can to prevent a mislynch.

Spicy defends Xzav a little, but then drops it"

Tofu defended Aqua using every weapon available because he thought Aqua was town.

Ah yes, I read it wrong. I'm not sure what hzflank was getting at, that was truly quite odd.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 18:24 GMT
#802
hzflank, you keep repeating that someone on the wagon must be scum. Why do you believe that is the case? Does it necessarily have to be true, or do you think you are assuming it should be true because Xzavier flipped town?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 18:27 GMT
#806
On June 27 2013 03:25 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 03:24 FirmTofu wrote:
hzflank, you keep repeating that someone on the wagon must be scum. Why do you believe that is the case? Does it necessarily have to be true, or do you think you are assuming it should be true because Xzavier flipped town?


Because if everyone on the Xzavier wagon was town, then the mafia team is Onegu, Spicy and Stim.

Well, I don't think he was referring to the last few tag along votes. I think he means one of the first few votes must be scum.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 18:40 GMT
#813
On June 27 2013 03:29 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 03:18 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 03:15 hzflank wrote:
If you think I was not trying to prevent the lynch then you have not read the thread. I tried, and you stopped me.

On June 26 2013 08:26 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 26 2013 08:17 hzflank wrote:
I will try another angle:

LoneMeow was the first to vote on Xzavier. I think that LoneMeow is town. He has never looked scummy to me and he thought that Xzavier was scum for the start. It makes sense that LoneMeow would be the first to vote on Xzavier.

Next to add their vote was Chromatically. Despite my earlier attack, Chrom has been looking more and more town to me. The only reason that I can see a scum Chrom voting Xzavier when he did is if Aqua is also scum, and everyone thought that idea was ridiculous. Therefore, I expect most of you see Chrom as town and the first two people on the wagon as town.

Aqua was the third to vote. Most of you think Aqua is town. That means most of you must think that the first 3 people on the wagon are town.

Is that not odd to anyone? If three townies jump on a scum wagon then there should of been a counter play by the scum team by now. And yet I started the Aqua wagon and I am posting this. It does not make sense.

There was a counter play! The scum saw that you had already started a vote on Aqua and used that as an opportunity to draw attention away from Xzavier. While I strongly believe you are town because you were the one to start the lynch with some pretty good analysis, I do not believe that the other people pursuing the Aqua wagon are free from blame. The fact that they jumped on Aqua right after Xzavier's bandwagon was gaining momentum is indicative of this fact.


Yes, you did try. I wasn't being fair when I added you to the list. I don't think you are scum, but you supporting Onegu's weak case against me was making me reconsider.

Anyway, you haven't addressed the core reasoning, so I take it that you agree?


My claim against you isnt weak and you havent addressed any of my points. In addition to that you lied in this game and did not come forward with your plan until you were called out on it. Your lieing not only decieved someone you didnt tell them what happend after you got what you wanted until someone caught you in a lie. you are useing very scummy tactics in lieing and bullying and think that is a perfectly normal town thing to do, it isnt it is a scum tactic.

I'm making a huge post, but I keep checking the thread to address any new developments. I will post my reaction to your accusations against me as soon as I am finished.

You say my lying deceived someone, but I fail to see how this hurt town. All my lying did was keep Aqua from dying. If the person I deceived is clearly okay with the fact that I deceived him, I don't see how this is even an issue. You keep saying I am doing scummy things, but are not providing any evidence to support your claims.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 18:46 GMT
#816
On June 27 2013 03:40 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 02:54 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 02:36 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 27 2013 02:14 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:47 Chromatically wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:31 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 27 2013 01:23 Chromatically wrote:
Spicy, I think that Tofu's actions around the lynch were fine.

He thought that you were scummier, but after pushing you he saw that no one else was willing to vote you.

Instead of wasting his vote on someone who wouldn't be lynched (you), he moves to his second-best scumread (Xzav).


please look at what i wrote again. It is clear he said his second best read was stim

On June 26 2013 01:03 FirmTofu wrote:
I've skimmed through the thread to get a handle on where people are leaning.

Scenario 1: Xzavier is town
Mafia should be distancing themselves from the lynch and somewhat defending him.

Scenario 2: Xzavier is mafia
Mafia should be vehemently arguing in his defense while also trying to distance themselves from him. It's a balancing act that is hard to do.

Keep an eye out for people who fall into the latter category for now.

On another note, I agree with Hurricane that StiM is the best lynch for today. However, letting Aqua die is simply not an option. We only lynch StiM if we know we can get enough votes.


He then does nothing with trying to get stim lynched and just sheeps onto xzavier.


Oh yeah, that's a good point that I missed.

Just a few posts later he says:
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.

As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu

They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.

Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.


Stim isn't even in his proposed scumteam.

Tofu, can you clarify this situation?

Ah, of course. What happened was that I wanted Hurricane to switch his vote from StiM to Xzavier so that Aqua(who i had a stong town read on) wouldn't die. I was also very wary of StiM regardless because he was lurking hardcore. To win Hurricane over to our side, I got on his level. Obviously, I wasn't bein completely honest when I said StiM was the best lynch, but I knew that Aqua couldn't be allowed to die and this was my tactic to save him.


So you admit you are a liar. Scummy as hell.

Lying is definitely not a scum tell. Read the mafia guide by Ver.
On August 26 2010 13:08 Ver wrote:
Also, this is a good point to address the misconception that 'lying=mafia,' which is clearly not the case. I lie all the time as town, and much more rarely as mafia. Some may condemn this as inferior play, but lying, among other 'anti-town plays,' lets you open new routes of play that are ordinarily inaccessible if you behave as a 'perfect townie.' Most of the time you have to take a risk if you want to win. Of course the execution is everything, as lying for no gain is just going to make it harder for the town to do anything. And of course, many town players will lie on accident, without reason, or for some bizarre reason or another that you have no way of knowing. A point that will be emphasized continuously is the necessity to differentiate between mafia and bad townie play. You can't just lynch people and when they pop green excuse yourself by saying 'oh they were anti-town anyways.' The goal is to kill mafia, period.


Its a scum tell in this situation. Why would you need to lie in order to secure their votes? there were already cases against xzavier that you decided not to push. Instead u had to make up lies to get people over. Why was is it so important to lie to lynch Xzavier if his lynch was such a sure thing? You pushed hard for his lynch in a very deceitful way.

Also given the fact that you are refusing to look at people who actually voted to to kill xzavier means u dont want people to look at you. You talk so much now how it was obvious that xzavier was going to be lynched, yet there was a time the vote was 3-3, and then later 4-4. Not at all clear cut. But you keep deflecting away from yourself at every possible turn.

You have yet to comment on how bad your logic was with xzavier and I being scum buddies and your overall play during the lynching period.

I just explained why I lied. I lied to SAVE Aqua. I didn't really push the lynch, remember I stated it was sub-optimal? My main intent was to keep Aqua alive, not to push for Xzavier's lynch.

I'm not refusing to look at people who voted Xzavier. I've looked at them, and I have strong town reads on all of them. I've already explained all of this.

My logic wasn't bad when I said you and Xzavier were scumbuddies. Xzavier and you were both playing scummy, so I naturally read you both as such. Of course, Xzavier flipped town. That doesn't change the fact that he appeared scummy and my reasoning was sound.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 18:53 GMT
#819
On June 27 2013 03:50 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 03:43 Chromatically wrote:
On June 27 2013 03:40 hzflank wrote:
My problem is that Chromatically, Tofu and Hurricane have not pressured each other since the flip. The flip made you all look guilty for different reasons. I expected you to defend yourselves by investigating each other. You are better placed to investigate each other than I am, because you know if you are town.

The best way for the town to get a correct read on which of you is scum (if any) is if you look for guilt in each other.

Why don't you explain how the flip made each of us look bad?


Why don't you do some scum hunting?

He is scumhunting. He thinks Onegu is scum, so he's pursuing that read. You on the other hand, are just asking others to do your scumhunting for you.

Please, tell me why any of us(Hurricane, Chroma, Aqua, LoneMeow, and me) have to be scum. I promise I will consider it and I might even change my reads.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 18:56 GMT
#822
On June 27 2013 03:53 hzflank wrote:
I wanted to give you a chance to look into it yourselves to earn some town cred, but everyone went straight for Onegu, then when that did not get enough support some of you also poked at Spicy.

I don't want to make any sort of case yet, because I want to be sure who the case will be against, if and when I make it. So i dont want to walk you through it.

I wont be on until the end of the night now.

I look forward to your case.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 19:03 GMT
#824
StiM and LoneMeow are going to decide which way the lynch goes because I believe that:

Spicy, Onegu, Alakaslam, and hzflank will vote together no matter what
AND
Chromatically, Hurricane, Aqua, and I will vote together no matter what.

We should work on convincing the two deciding votes at this point. I'm going back to making my defense against Onegu's accusations.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 19:12 GMT
#829
On June 27 2013 04:08 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 04:03 FirmTofu wrote:
StiM and LoneMeow are going to decide which way the lynch goes because I believe that:

Spicy, Onegu, Alakaslam, and hzflank will vote together no matter what
AND
Chromatically, Hurricane, Aqua, and I will vote together no matter what.

We should work on convincing the two deciding votes at this point. I'm going back to making my defense against Onegu's accusations.


This is an extremely stupid thing to say before the NK.

This should be obvious. I am trying to redirect town to focus on convincing people who's opinions can actually be changed.

I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 19:26 GMT
#832
On June 27 2013 04:20 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
I think you're wrong, but if you want to direct your posts at two people who have a combined 10 posts in 70+ hours of the game, you're wasting your time. You should be making arguments that make valid cases on legitimate scum reads, not trying to tailor evidence to secure specific votes.

Fair enough. I think I have already made a valid case on Onegu. I can perhaps look into his filter to see if I can catch anything I didn't see the first read through.

I'll save my vote targeting evidence for daytime. On a another note, I am glad that you have not declared you allegiance with our ragtag team of bandwagoners. We need doubt and constant questioning to keep us on our toes. You are the only one who is active and hasn't take. A specific side, and I admire that.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 19:31 GMT
#834
On June 27 2013 04:26 Chromatically wrote:
I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again.

There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake.

I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again.

Point taken. I won't be doing it again, that I can promise.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 19:48 GMT
#836
On June 27 2013 04:34 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 04:26 Chromatically wrote:
I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again.

There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake.

I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again.


I didn't think of this. I will be re-evaluating my thoughts on this matter in light of new information.

I think the distinguishing factor is intent. What intention would a scum Tofu have to save Aquanim?

The only possible scenario I see is if Aqua and I are both scum and I was desperately trying to get the vote off him by lying. If you adhere to that belief, you have a case against me. But otherwise, I don't think you can hold it against me.

In the context of my lie, aqua and I being different alignments is incompatible.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 19:53 GMT
#837
EBWOP: change intent to motivation. I think motivation is a more apt term for the meaning I am trying to get across.
P.S I think I just made a better case against myself than anyone has so far in this game. Not sure if this was a wise decision, but we shall see.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 20:23 GMT
#842
On June 27 2013 05:13 geript wrote:
Friendly neighbor hood reminder to send in your actions and such
Night 1 actions must be sent in by [unparsable timestamp format]
Night 1 ends in [unparsable timestamp format]

Can actions sent in be changed as long as they are resubmitted before the deadline?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 21:25 GMT
#845
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote:
Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also.


Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote:
Scum Hunt Day 1:
On June 24 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:
hey guys

Analysis: Trying to appear friendly with an innocuous greeting. Seems to project an air of insecurity.
Preliminary Conclusion: Scum

On June 24 2013 11:01 StiMaDDict wrote:
so it begins..

Analysis: Neutral statement of fact.
Preliminary Conclusion: Need more information.

On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Analysis: Exudes power with strong capitalization techniques along with a greeting.
Preliminary Conclusion: A leader with a powerful role.

On June 24 2013 11:03 Xzavier wrote:
Spicy <3 hello again.

Analysis: Trying to establish a connection with a player that he has interacted with prior to this game. A metagaming, manipulative sort of move.
Preliminary Conclusion: Scummy

On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote:
Why so scummy, Spicy?

Analysis: First baseless accusation. As the old chinese proverb states, "He who smelt it, dealt it."
Preliminary Conclusion: Scum

Suggested Lynch: Chromatically


His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS.

Show nested quote +
As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.


Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia.


As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim.

Show nested quote +
As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim.


Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment.

Show nested quote +
It wasn't pure spam, and I certainly hoped it would generate discussion. I knew I could not really say anything of substance at that point, so I decided to do something fun that would get people talking. I see absolutely nothing wrong with that. When you look at this post and contrast it to some first few posts, you can clearly see that singling me out as a target is rather silly.


But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam.

Show nested quote +
Just because Stim seems scummier than fyfy doesn't mean fyfy shouldn't be voted. I wanted fyfy to talk and I wanted to draw attention to him. That was the reason for my vote. Nothing more, nothing less. We can address Stim now that I am awake.


But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more...


Show nested quote +
I almost agree with everything you said. The problem arises when you realize that the case you've made for aqua is a hell of a lot stronger than the case you've made for Chromatically. Is this something you have overlooked? Or are you deliberately weaving a story to pit town against one another? For the time being, it's hard to tell one way or the other, but I did enjoy reading.


So you agree with almost everything?

Show nested quote +
Regardless, I see your story as a plausible conspiracy theory, at best. Acting upon it without further evidence is dangerous. Most of your post relies on speculation about the player's true motives.


Show nested quote +
I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion.


You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast?


Show nested quote +
3) You defended fyfy while accusing me of not voting for Stim instead of fyfy. There was no reason to say that when both were perfectly good lurker targets that were largely interchangeable.


But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had.

Show nested quote +
3) My point is your reason is stupid. What difference does one line of posting make? Seriously? Accusing me of being scum based on one line that someone else wrote?


It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not.

Show nested quote +
2) For fyfy, I still hold that there is no difference between the lurkers and you claimed that there is a difference. I think your reasons for claiming that there is a difference are stupid and make no sense because only one line separated one from the other. Why do you continue to defend fyfy? It's quite intriguing.


Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant.


Show nested quote +
I would remind everyone of the voting rules.Voting rules:Voting is done in this thread. You cannot PM me your vote.Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion may not be counted. Vote counts will be updated whenever intermittently.No conditional voting.You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game.In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).You may vote for a No Lynch in the format: ##Vote: No LynchVoting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.If you do not think Chromatically is scum, then please vote either 1) No lynch or 2) Someone else.In the event of a tie, the person who gets voted up first, dies.


Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space.

Show nested quote +
Sounds great! Could you consider looking through Xzavier's filter and reading Chromatically's case against Xzavier and consider voting for him? I would be willing to take you off my scum list if you would do that.


So you are happy at first with my statement what changed?

Show nested quote +
I concur. The Xzavier lynch didn't actually have the highest chance of flipping scum for me; however, it definitely provided invaluable information that we can use throughout the game. I'm glad to see we agree.


So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY?

Show nested quote +
I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point.P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink*


Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it.

Show nested quote +
So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team. If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame.If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him.Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum.The ball is in your court.


This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also.

Show nested quote +
Bullying? I don't see how this is bullying at all. I'm giving him a choice that he can choose to accept or not and I letting him know the consequences of his decision.


If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying.

Show nested quote +
Also, Onegu isn't being pro-town by calling me scummy. He's being anti-town. Almost all of town agrees that I have been one of the most pro-town players this entire game.


Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game.

You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum.


Here is the post accusing me of everything and anything Onegu could get his hands on. Although I have addressed nearly all of his points in various posts, I will condense it and address each one in detail here so that you only have at one place to read all of it.

Onegu and Spicy's Point 1: FirmTofu made a scummy first post that detracted from the quality of the thread.
My Defense: If anything, I made some good cases against people who had already talked based on what I knew at the time. Look at the other posts in the first few hours of day 1. Are any of those similarly fluffy? Is mine somehow more filled with fluff than any of those? Honestly, at that point, what do you expect me to say?

Onegu and Spicy's Point 2: FirmTofu doesn't want us to discuss metagaming and is therefore scummy.
My Defense: I don't want to discuss metagaming because I am philosophically against it. If you look at any of my other games, I have not once discussed previous games to influence the ongoing one(Oh, the irony is strong with me).

Onegu and Spicy's Point 3: FirmTofu voted fyfy instead of StiMaDDict who had posted once in the thread. Voting someone who hasn't talked(fyfy) when you see that there is someone who has talked(StiM but has lurked is scummy because StiM actually has a chance of responding.
My Defense: I voted fyfy because he hadn't posted. I wanted him to post. I also wanted StiM to post, in fact, I told everyone to keep an eye on him. The only reason I didn't vote StiM as well is because I can't actually vote twice. To say it is scummy to vote for one guy who I thought was scummy instead of the other guy I thought was scummy is ignorant. I would have voted for both if I could have.

Onegu and Spicy's Point 3: FirmTofu agreed with hzflank's theory that Aqua and Chromatically were secretly working together, but then quickly backpedaled and said he didn't think it was likely.
My Defense: I didn't backpedal. I articulated my thoughts on the matter through a series of posts. My statement was that hzflank's theory was plausible, but unlikely. I never deviated from that line of reasoning. My first post says that I almost agree with all of his reasoning because I knew it was a possible scenario. My later posts explain that even though it is possible, it's very unlikely to be true. Even hzflank admitted later that his theory wasn't likely to be true. Was he backpedaling too, why do you think he is free of blame?

Onegu and Spicy's Point 4: FirmTofu blasted Onegu about the fact that he didn't get on the Xzavier lynch and instead voted for Alakslam, but now FirmTofu is still accusing Onegu as scum when he didn't vote for town-flipped Xzavier.
My Defense: You are taking the situation out of context and making it sound like I had the same beliefs at both times. Pre-lynch, I was under the assumption that Xzavier would flip mafia, therefore I thought you were mafia for avoiding lynching him. It looked like you were trying to save your mafia buddy, so I called you out on that. Post-lynch, circumstances changed. As I have explained numerous times, your actions of voting Alakslam (to make yourself appear as though you are town by not voting Xzavier who you know is town) and your statement of apathy is what convinced me that you are scum.

Onegu and Spicy's Point 5: FirmTofu lied to Hurricane to get Hurricane to vote for Xzavier.
My Defense: I lied to ensure that Aquanim would not get lynched. If you recall correctly, my first choice lynch was actually Spicy and the only reason I ever switched to Xzavier was because no one was backing me up and my vote was essentially useless. I agreed many town members that Xzavier was scummy based on numerous points, so I decided he would be a decent person to lynch and get some information on. Remember, I had to defer to a sub-optimal lynch!

All the other points don't amount to much and just aim to hurt my town cred. If there is anything specific I haven't addressed, please let me know.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 21:26 GMT
#846
I will now formulate a few scumreads to get the party started. I want to move back on the offensive like Hurricane stated so that we can stop wasting time discussing why I am town.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 21:50 GMT
#847
Another point I'd like to make: Scum can change their actions even if they have already submitted them, BUT if either Onegu or hzflank are scum, they will be unable to change whatever actions they have set out for the night(because they have already gone to sleep).

I say we capitalize on this opportunity and throw out a bunch of scum reads so that, no matter who dies tonight, we will have a plethora of information at our disposal to work with on Day 2.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 22:39 GMT
#850
On June 27 2013 07:21 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 06:25 FirmTofu wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote:
Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also.


Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote:
Scum Hunt Day 1:
On June 24 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:
hey guys

Analysis: Trying to appear friendly with an innocuous greeting. Seems to project an air of insecurity.
Preliminary Conclusion: Scum

On June 24 2013 11:01 StiMaDDict wrote:
so it begins..

Analysis: Neutral statement of fact.
Preliminary Conclusion: Need more information.

On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Analysis: Exudes power with strong capitalization techniques along with a greeting.
Preliminary Conclusion: A leader with a powerful role.

On June 24 2013 11:03 Xzavier wrote:
Spicy <3 hello again.

Analysis: Trying to establish a connection with a player that he has interacted with prior to this game. A metagaming, manipulative sort of move.
Preliminary Conclusion: Scummy

On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote:
Why so scummy, Spicy?

Analysis: First baseless accusation. As the old chinese proverb states, "He who smelt it, dealt it."
Preliminary Conclusion: Scum

Suggested Lynch: Chromatically


His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS.

Show nested quote +
As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.


Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia.


As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim.

Show nested quote +
As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim.


Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment.

Show nested quote +
It wasn't pure spam, and I certainly hoped it would generate discussion. I knew I could not really say anything of substance at that point, so I decided to do something fun that would get people talking. I see absolutely nothing wrong with that. When you look at this post and contrast it to some first few posts, you can clearly see that singling me out as a target is rather silly.


But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam.

Show nested quote +
Just because Stim seems scummier than fyfy doesn't mean fyfy shouldn't be voted. I wanted fyfy to talk and I wanted to draw attention to him. That was the reason for my vote. Nothing more, nothing less. We can address Stim now that I am awake.


But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more...


Show nested quote +
I almost agree with everything you said. The problem arises when you realize that the case you've made for aqua is a hell of a lot stronger than the case you've made for Chromatically. Is this something you have overlooked? Or are you deliberately weaving a story to pit town against one another? For the time being, it's hard to tell one way or the other, but I did enjoy reading.


So you agree with almost everything?

Show nested quote +
Regardless, I see your story as a plausible conspiracy theory, at best. Acting upon it without further evidence is dangerous. Most of your post relies on speculation about the player's true motives.


Show nested quote +
I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion.


You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast?


Show nested quote +
3) You defended fyfy while accusing me of not voting for Stim instead of fyfy. There was no reason to say that when both were perfectly good lurker targets that were largely interchangeable.


But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had.

Show nested quote +
3) My point is your reason is stupid. What difference does one line of posting make? Seriously? Accusing me of being scum based on one line that someone else wrote?


It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not.

Show nested quote +
2) For fyfy, I still hold that there is no difference between the lurkers and you claimed that there is a difference. I think your reasons for claiming that there is a difference are stupid and make no sense because only one line separated one from the other. Why do you continue to defend fyfy? It's quite intriguing.


Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant.


Show nested quote +
I would remind everyone of the voting rules.Voting rules:Voting is done in this thread. You cannot PM me your vote.Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion may not be counted. Vote counts will be updated whenever intermittently.No conditional voting.You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game.In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).You may vote for a No Lynch in the format: ##Vote: No LynchVoting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.If you do not think Chromatically is scum, then please vote either 1) No lynch or 2) Someone else.In the event of a tie, the person who gets voted up first, dies.


Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space.

Show nested quote +
Sounds great! Could you consider looking through Xzavier's filter and reading Chromatically's case against Xzavier and consider voting for him? I would be willing to take you off my scum list if you would do that.


So you are happy at first with my statement what changed?

Show nested quote +
I concur. The Xzavier lynch didn't actually have the highest chance of flipping scum for me; however, it definitely provided invaluable information that we can use throughout the game. I'm glad to see we agree.


So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY?

Show nested quote +
I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point.P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink*


Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it.

Show nested quote +
So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team. If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame.If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him.Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum.The ball is in your court.


This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also.

Show nested quote +
Bullying? I don't see how this is bullying at all. I'm giving him a choice that he can choose to accept or not and I letting him know the consequences of his decision.


If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying.

Show nested quote +
Also, Onegu isn't being pro-town by calling me scummy. He's being anti-town. Almost all of town agrees that I have been one of the most pro-town players this entire game.


Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game.

You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum.


Here is the post accusing me of everything and anything Onegu could get his hands on. Although I have addressed nearly all of his points in various posts, I will condense it and address each one in detail here so that you only have at one place to read all of it.

Onegu and Spicy's Point 1: FirmTofu made a scummy first post that detracted from the quality of the thread.
My Defense: If anything, I made some good cases against people who had already talked based on what I knew at the time. Look at the other posts in the first few hours of day 1. Are any of those similarly fluffy? Is mine somehow more filled with fluff than any of those? Honestly, at that point, what do you expect me to say?

Onegu and Spicy's Point 2: FirmTofu doesn't want us to discuss metagaming and is therefore scummy.
My Defense: I don't want to discuss metagaming because I am philosophically against it. If you look at any of my other games, I have not once discussed previous games to influence the ongoing one(Oh, the irony is strong with me).

Onegu and Spicy's Point 3: FirmTofu voted fyfy instead of StiMaDDict who had posted once in the thread. Voting someone who hasn't talked(fyfy) when you see that there is someone who has talked(StiM but has lurked is scummy because StiM actually has a chance of responding.
My Defense: I voted fyfy because he hadn't posted. I wanted him to post. I also wanted StiM to post, in fact, I told everyone to keep an eye on him. The only reason I didn't vote StiM as well is because I can't actually vote twice. To say it is scummy to vote for one guy who I thought was scummy instead of the other guy I thought was scummy is ignorant. I would have voted for both if I could have.

Onegu and Spicy's Point 3: FirmTofu agreed with hzflank's theory that Aqua and Chromatically were secretly working together, but then quickly backpedaled and said he didn't think it was likely.
My Defense: I didn't backpedal. I articulated my thoughts on the matter through a series of posts. My statement was that hzflank's theory was plausible, but unlikely. I never deviated from that line of reasoning. My first post says that I almost agree with all of his reasoning because I knew it was a possible scenario. My later posts explain that even though it is possible, it's very unlikely to be true. Even hzflank admitted later that his theory wasn't likely to be true. Was he backpedaling too, why do you think he is free of blame?

Onegu and Spicy's Point 4: FirmTofu blasted Onegu about the fact that he didn't get on the Xzavier lynch and instead voted for Alakslam, but now FirmTofu is still accusing Onegu as scum when he didn't vote for town-flipped Xzavier.
My Defense: You are taking the situation out of context and making it sound like I had the same beliefs at both times. Pre-lynch, I was under the assumption that Xzavier would flip mafia, therefore I thought you were mafia for avoiding lynching him. It looked like you were trying to save your mafia buddy, so I called you out on that. Post-lynch, circumstances changed. As I have explained numerous times, your actions of voting Alakslam (to make yourself appear as though you are town by not voting Xzavier who you know is town) and your statement of apathy is what convinced me that you are scum.

Onegu and Spicy's Point 5: FirmTofu lied to Hurricane to get Hurricane to vote for Xzavier.
My Defense: I lied to ensure that Aquanim would not get lynched. If you recall correctly, my first choice lynch was actually Spicy and the only reason I ever switched to Xzavier was because no one was backing me up and my vote was essentially useless. I agreed many town members that Xzavier was scummy based on numerous points, so I decided he would be a decent person to lynch and get some information on. Remember, I had to defer to a sub-optimal lynch!

All the other points don't amount to much and just aim to hurt my town cred. If there is anything specific I haven't addressed, please let me know.


Why the hell are you saying onegu and me when i didnt even raise some of these points against you? I have never said anything on 3 and 4. Your constant manipulation to try to lump us together is absurd. As is the way you misconstrue or even ignore my other against you.

Here is where you tried to lump xzavier and i together because he wouldnt vote for me. Please respond to what i posted in reply that you completely ignored.

Show nested quote +

On June 25 2013 16:35 FirmTofu wrote:

The fact that you are willing to change your vote to Alakazam but not Spicy is rather arbitrary. When facing death, a townie would be willing to change his vote to anyone to stay alive. You have sealed your fate in my eyes with this response and have furthered confirmed my suspicions of Spicy.

As it seems very few people agree with my suspicions of Spicy, I will defer to a sub-optimal lynch of you.
##Unvote: SpicyDinosaur
##Vote: Xzavier



The two people who have the most votes are xzavier and aqua. If xzavier wanted to stay alive then he would keep his vote on aqua, otherwise his own chance of being lynched goes up if he takes it off. The fact that he's willing to take his vote OFF of the other major lynch candidate and onto another he thinks is scummy shows that he is scum hunting a little. Though were his vote ultimately ends up is the real indicator.

I also dont get how him not voting for me makes him scummier now. No one else in the thread bought your argument against me, yet Xzavier is the only one to receive your wrath for doing so? It looks like you are trying to make arbitrary reasonings to reinforce your vote like you did with me.


Pure manipulation at its finest. Here is what i wrote about his fyfy vote and i never claimed it was scummy, just bothering me.

Show nested quote +

Lastly his vote on fyfy has been bugging me. It is clearly a pressure vote to get him active but why target fyfy over stim? Stim actually posted at the beginning of the day right after the day post, then dissipated. He was there reading the thread but not actively posting. This seems scummier than fyfy at the moment.



Also in regards to your point 2: Your refusal to look at meta narrows your evidence. That is a fact. You can argue how useful it could be. But when you say that im overly defensive and its scummy... but it could be explained by personality, and you wont look at meta, which would BACK UP the personality, you refuse. That is just unwillingness to look at evidence.


Last question for you tofu... Why didnt you come forward to the town after your lie to explain what you did? why did u hide it if you are town?

Sorry for lumping you together. I assumed that you both shared similar concerns and I wanted to address them all in one post. Apparently, I was wrong to think that.

Please see bolded in quote. What exactly did I completely ignore? If you can quote it, I will respond to it. I don't think I missed anything.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 22:42 GMT
#853
I didn't come forward after my lie because it would just detract from what we need to be doing, pursuing scum reads. Suppose I did tell everyone I lied. Then suddenly, all the attention shifts to me and I end up wasting time defending myself instead of looking at other reads. Because I know I am town, and I want town to win, I didn't tell everyone that I lied and hoped that it would go unnoticed. Unfortunately, that did not happen, and I did have to waste time defending myself.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 22:44 GMT
#855
On June 27 2013 07:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
I'm starting to think that you two don't like each other very much.

It's really just him tunneling me because I tunneled him hard Day 1. Personally, I don't blame him. Anyway, he isn't even my strongest scum read at this point, so I'd rather not get on his bad side for now.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 22:50 GMT
#857
On June 27 2013 07:42 Spicydinosaur wrote:
For the 3rd time quoting... THIS. There is no way you didnt see that in the previous posting.


_____________________________________________________________________

Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 16:35 FirmTofu wrote:

The fact that you are willing to change your vote to Alakazam but not Spicy is rather arbitrary. When facing death, a townie would be willing to change his vote to anyone to stay alive. You have sealed your fate in my eyes with this response and have furthered confirmed my suspicions of Spicy.

As it seems very few people agree with my suspicions of Spicy, I will defer to a sub-optimal lynch of you.
##Unvote: SpicyDinosaur
##Vote: Xzavier



The two people who have the most votes are xzavier and aqua. If xzavier wanted to stay alive then he would keep his vote on aqua, otherwise his own chance of being lynched goes up if he takes it off. The fact that he's willing to take his vote OFF of the other major lynch candidate and onto another he thinks is scummy shows that he is scum hunting a little. Though were his vote ultimately ends up is the real indicator.

I also dont get how him not voting for me makes him scummier now. No one else in the thread bought your argument against me, yet Xzavier is the only one to receive your wrath for doing so? It looks like you are trying to make arbitrary reasonings to reinforce your vote like you did with me.

________________________________________________________________________

That's because I've addressed this plenty of times. Xzavier was a sub-optimal lynch for me. That is, I was reading the thread and being convinced by various people that he was a good candidate to lynch.

At the time, I thought you were scum, so I interpreted Xzavier's actions as a defense of you. Obviously, I was wrong; however, my reasoning was a perfectly plausible explanation.

Xzavier could have been scum and chose not to vote you because he was your teammate. Even if my suspicions were wrong, I don't see how it makes me appear scummy. Town makes mistakes too, the key is to admit them and correct them.

tl;dr: I was wrong, but I'm not scum.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 26 2013 22:59 GMT
#859
@ Spicy
I agree with Hurricane in that I would really like to see some of your other scumreads. I no longer have you pegged at the top of my scum list, so any input you give me will be taken into account. I would really appreciate if we could manage a civil discussion that doesn't constantly revolve around me. Notice how, I have been providing my inputs on numerous people but you have only really talked about me.

We need to discuss more people to give town the biggest advantage it can get going into day 2.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 01:56 GMT
#881
I've run into a little problem with my Internet so I've got to post on my phone.
Unfortunately, I couldn't finish my huge post on reads, so this will be an abbreviated version.

My biggest scum read is Onegu because of his reaction to the lynch and and apathy bit.
Coming in at number 2 is Alakaslam, who Onegu chose to vote randomly when it was obvious that Xzavier would be lynched. There are also a lot of conversations I've had with him that make me suspicious.

Tied at 3rd are SpicyDinosaur and hzflank.
SpicyDinosaur had peculiar behavior throughout day 1, causing me to make a case for him. He also used a similar tactic as Onegu to dissociate himself from the lynch.

Hzflank was initially a town read for me, but jumped up the list because of how weak his reasoning was during this night. I feel like he is deliberately playing dumb to appear as though he can just ignore what everyone else is saying and avoid the Onegu lynch.

LoneMeow and StiM are null reads because I have very little to go off and I am not willing to pass judgement upon them at this time.

I'm not sure I should be posting town reads at this juncture but I think most of the rest of you know where I stand.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 02:01 GMT
#889
Fuck
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 02:02 GMT
#890
Okay we probably have a 4 mafia team, am I correct?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 02:05 GMT
#896
On June 27 2013 11:03 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 11:02 FirmTofu wrote:
Okay we probably have a 4 mafia team, am I correct?

No, there's almost certainly three.

With no sk, doesn't mafia get +1? I'm not sure how balancing works on these forums.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 02:08 GMT
#901
On June 27 2013 11:06 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Spicy is town. This is a winnable game. It's super bad luck that our best role happened to be our most skilled player (easily drawing the mafia shot), but the game is close to being figured out. I guess I'll start the wagon, if no one objects.

##Vote: Onegu

Agreed. Let's go.
##Vote: Onegu
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 02:11 GMT
#903
On June 27 2013 11:10 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
@FirmTofu
Don't solicit votes this time. I want to see people's instincts.

As do I. I'm waiting, just as you are.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 02:13 GMT
#906
I knew it was inevitable, but hell, I was REALLY hoping he would flip VT. This situation is problematic. We really needed a parity cop to guide us on our way to victory
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 02:15 GMT
#909
On June 27 2013 11:12 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 11:06 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Spicy is town. This is a winnable game. It's super bad luck that our best role happened to be our most skilled player (easily drawing the mafia shot), but the game is close to being figured out. I guess I'll start the wagon, if no one objects.

##Vote: Onegu

As far as I can tell, your entire town read on Spicy is based on Chromatically being the shot rather than you. As you said, he was in general the best shot. I don't see how this argument makes sense at all.

Show nested quote +

hz and onegu are my worst reads. You're on your own for them until I can collect my thoughts better. I haven't breadcrumbed some secret message about them, so if I'm about to go down, you all have to sort out that mess on your own.

I'm going to need an actual case from you on Onegu, including a reply to my comments about him here before I take your vote seriously. For that matter, I'd like to see your opinion on my comments on Spicy, too.

If we start a "wagon of justice" on Onegu, ride it all day, and he flips town, we're pretty screwed. I'd like to at least discuss other options.

Aqua, Chromatically and I have made the case for Onegu's lynch extremely clear. Please read our respective filters for more information. I wouldn't expect Hurricane to be the one to justify the wagon to you. You can just see that confirmed town flip Parity Cop Chromatically wanted him dead.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 02:21 GMT
#911
On June 27 2013 11:18 Aquanim wrote:
For the moment:

##Vote: StiMaDDict

This is no more nor less than a pressure vote, which is something I don't normally do, but we badly, badly need StiMaDDict to get in here and play the game seriously. If nothing else, I refuse to let him win by playing like this if he's scum.

I will continue to assess Onegu and Spicy (as well as other vague reads).

Disturbing thought: If we mislynch and StiMaDDict (or any other townie) is modkilled we lose the game. Immediately.
Don't edit any posts guys

A perfectly valid decision. Unlike Spicy and Onegu I will not accuse you of being scum because you voted StiM instead of LoneMeow. God, that argument was such a waste of time.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 02:28 GMT
#915
On June 27 2013 11:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Wow. Aqua might have been scum all along. This looks like a desperate vote to try to get ME SPECIFICALLY to pull off the onegu wagon.

Going to revisit all the Aqua heat. Anyone care to update their case on him?

I'd rather first make a convincing case for Onegu being mafia, and see his reponse. We can form a case on Aqua based on that.

@Aqua I will try and make the case that Onegu cannot be town to convince you. It'll take some time, so be patient.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 09:33 GMT
#944
On June 27 2013 18:25 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 18:19 Aquanim wrote:
@Onegu: The prevailing thread sentiment at the moment appears to be that you are a favoured lynch for today. I imagine you don't want that, so who do you think we should lynch instead? Your goal should be to persuade the thread that your scum read is more likely to flip scum than you are.


My strongest read to flip scum is firmtofu, he has lied and bullied to get his vote on someone he said wasnt likely to flip scum.

That has got to be the worst interpretation of my actions I have ever read.

My lie was told to Hurricane to save Aquanim from a lynch.
My "bullying"(I don't even agree with this term) was so Alakaslam would vote for you.

When did I say you were not likely to flip scum, exactly?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 11:43 GMT
#946
FirmTofu's Case Against Onegu

Point #1: Onegu seems to be looking for reasons to vote me that he doesn't necessarily even agree with.

Example: Onegu initially states that meta is bad and you should "stop trying to meta peoples play."
On June 24 2013 16:10 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 15:46 Alakaslam wrote:
On June 24 2013 15:35 Onegu wrote:
On June 24 2013 15:32 Alakaslam wrote:
I know I sai I'd go but this came up.

From the post for us newbs:

"Please do not talk about any ongoing games either in-game or pre-game. This can affect other games and is unacceptable. Please do not refer to outside-of- thread activity of players in this thread."

I have already messed up in this regard and I apologize. But note some folks have also talked about meta from previous newbie games and I don't think we are allowed to do that either. Will ask In green tomorrow when not trying to go to bed and when at computer. (iPhone)



We are ok since the games we are talking about have finished already.

Sweet! Thanks again Onegu.

I think I'll read those then- Tomorrow. Man this is worse than angry birds, I am thoroughly addicted.

For now here is a list, so ALL of town can meta :D

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=412757
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=407058
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=405359

Sorry that there is no meta on me, I'm that new.

Note that some players may not only have played newbie games. Search their names! How late you want me up, midnight? I get up at 5 tomorrow!

Also, check that you don't get into the above error first.



Ok guys meta on peoples play you shold have played with that person at least 5 times, as this is impossible please stop trying to meta peoples play. It is ok to infer somethings on game setup, but people are still learning thier playstyle in a newbie game so you cannot base a scum read on meta play in noob games...


Then, when he wants to make a case against me, he uses my failure to use meta as an excuse to call me scummy.

On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote:As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.


Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia.


It seems like Onegu has differing views on meta depending on when it is convenient for him to think one way or another.




Point #2: Onegu switched his vote from Aquanim to Alakaslam rather arbitrarily, suggesting that he knew Aquanim would flip town and everyone would blame him, so he moved to his "second best" scum read.

Example: Here we see Onegu buiding a case for Aquanim and establishing that he believes Alakaslam is "noob scum" and is a lower priority lynch to Aquanim. I have bolded all relevant areas.
On June 25 2013 16:58 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 16:48 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 25 2013 16:45 Onegu wrote:
On June 25 2013 16:33 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 16:01 Onegu wrote:
On June 25 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote:
I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum.

##Vote: Aquanim

Can you explain this some more? What exactly about my play do you think is scum-motivated?

Can you please post your case against me as the only thing you have said is I didnt respond when things were going on, well I was going to sleep when HZ posted his case, I responded to the NN thing and have scum hunted and tried to create a useful town atmosphere.

I have no idea what this request has to do with the post you quoted, but whatever...

The first page and a half or so of your filter is just talking about policy, power roles and random fluff without any particular intention of finding scum. This isn't damning in as of itself, early game does tend to be like that, but the entirety of your efforts in the direction of finding scum is an overwhelming tunnel of myself.

As far as I can tell, you haven't looked at anyone else at all, and endlessly tunneling a likely lynch target for the day while repeating the same old arguments (made by other people before you, mostly) over and over is a good way to look active while not actually bringing anything new to the table or having to pretend to do some original scumhunting. You haven't made any significant and new contributions to the thread, which is scum's natural state.

That being said, I think it's possible that you're town and that you think tunneling me like this is accomplishing something, which is why I'm voting Xzavier over you.

Actually I have made a scum hunt albit small on alakaslam, I think he is noob scum which isnt as important as killing a scum who knows what they are doing.

Jesus Christ bud, if you think he's scum, by all means vote him. It's not like you know of any scum who know what they're doing, so you not voting for Alakasam is extremely suspicious to me.

If I have 2 scum reads I am going to vote for the one that is the biggest threat to town. And the reason I think he is scum is he posts only fluff offers no posts to help town and offers no reads on anyone at all. The only thing he has said is spicy and onegu defend yourself. Then he dissapears, I feel this is super noob scum play but in no way is dangerous to town, on the other hand aqua has posted dangerous even harmful ideas toward town.


Then, as soon as he is pressured, he backs away from Aquanim. CONTEXT! At this point, removing his vote caused the tiebreak scenario between the lynch of Xzavier and the lynch of Aquanim to be lifted. In essence, this move sealed Xzavier's fate and saved Aquanim from being a probable lynch. This ensured that Onegu would not look suspicious post-lynch because he wouldn't be responsible for the death of a townie.

On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 17:35 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 17:27 hzflank wrote:
Xzavier, Onegu and I all seem to have similar opinions on scum voting, yet we all seem to have greatly differing personalities. This leads me to believe that Xzavier and Onegu are town, as I think they arrived at their opinions by looking at the situation from a town point of view.

The only slight worry I have on Xzavier is:

On June 25 2013 14:33 Xzavier wrote:
Whats the massive scum yell. cuz im not gonna lie. i skimmed threw all the noisy neighbor spam just to see who was asking for them to claim. no other part of it means anything to me xD


But that could just be a character trait or a lack of time. On the whole I am uncomfortable with the votes on Xzavier.

Is there anything about Xzavier and Onegu's play which makes you think they're town besides where their vote is? Personally, I can't see anything about their play which makes me think they're looking at this game with a town mentality and actually searching for scum, rather than just jumping on the only other wagon going.

I think they are likely scum but I have a much townier read on you because I can see you're thinking about the game and critically evaluating your reads. Their arguments, on the other hand, are mostly "herp derp he disagreed with us about nosy neighbours" and "look at this single post and how it agrees with something someone else said, that's so scummy!". I don't think either of them could sincerely believe I'm scum based on the arguments they've presented.

You said you had some questions for me, will they be forthcoming soon?


Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case.

##: UNVOTE

##: VOTE ALAKASLAM


But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2.



Point #3: Onegu was wanted to lynch Aquanim if Xzavier flipped town, but post-lynch, he didn't even pursue Aquanim at all.

(See last quoted post) The most critical part of this post lies in the last sentence. What changed? Why did he give up on Aquanim? Nearly all of Onegu's case for me relies on events that happened prior to this post. There is absolutely no reason for him to suddenly switch his vbest scum read from Aquanim to me. A townie in this position after Xzavier's flip as town would pursue Aquanim to no end. The only explanation here is that Onegu is scum, and he sees me as a greater threat to his mafia team than Aquanim.


Point #4: Onegu declared his apathy to both the Xzavier and Aquanim lynches shortly thereafter with no developments other than his case for Alakaslam.

On June 26 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.

As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu

They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.

Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.


To be honest I dont care who is killed if Xzavier flips town my vote will go on aquanim and if he flips scum I will vote Spicydinosaur. My current read on Xzavier is null with scum reads on alakaslam and aqua. With every post Alakaslam makes he looks more and more like noob scum to me.

Note: He reiterates that if Xzavier flips town, Onegu's vote will go to Aquanim. This is further evidence for Point #2 and is also indicative that Onegu still has not shifted his suspicions onto me.

He says he has scum reads on Alakaslam and Aqua, but doesn't vote for Aqua who was the only one likely to be lynched that day. The scum reasoning behind this is that he doesn't want to be suspected post lynch(Point #2). A townie would be willing to push their second best scum read(Aquanim) if he was the only scum read that was even on the table. Only scum would try and pretend as though Alakaslam was a viable option.

Elaboration on why apathy is a problem: Onegu's apathy towards the lynch on day 1 is a clear scum tell. An honest townie, in his position, would never have switched from voting Aquanim to voting Alakaslam. Even if the townie thought Aquanim was a sub-optimal lynch, he would have been willing to pursue it was the lynch that was even remotely likely to go through that he agreed with.

However, scum Onegu was obviously apathetic about the lynch because he knew that, no matter what, a townie would die. Therefore, to clear himself of blame, he quickly got off the wagon he was currently on and allowed the other wagon to take precedence. This way, no one could accuse him of being the reason for getting a townie killed. It was a brilliant move, until of course, he was honest about his true intentions.



Point #5: Onegu's entire case against me is a scummy OMGUS that only serves to maim my authority and credibility.

The only thing that happened right after post-lynch was that Chromatically and I drafted up separate cases against Onegu. Nothing else changed. There was absolutely no reason for Onegu to change his scum read of Aquanim to suddenly attack me.

Here is his case for reference.
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote:
Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also.


Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote:
Scum Hunt Day 1:
On June 24 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:
hey guys

Analysis: Trying to appear friendly with an innocuous greeting. Seems to project an air of insecurity.
Preliminary Conclusion: Scum

On June 24 2013 11:01 StiMaDDict wrote:
so it begins..

Analysis: Neutral statement of fact.
Preliminary Conclusion: Need more information.

On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Analysis: Exudes power with strong capitalization techniques along with a greeting.
Preliminary Conclusion: A leader with a powerful role.

On June 24 2013 11:03 Xzavier wrote:
Spicy <3 hello again.

Analysis: Trying to establish a connection with a player that he has interacted with prior to this game. A metagaming, manipulative sort of move.
Preliminary Conclusion: Scummy

On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote:
Why so scummy, Spicy?

Analysis: First baseless accusation. As the old chinese proverb states, "He who smelt it, dealt it."
Preliminary Conclusion: Scum

Suggested Lynch: Chromatically


His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS.

Show nested quote +
As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.


Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia.


As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim.

Show nested quote +
As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim.


Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment.

Show nested quote +
It wasn't pure spam, and I certainly hoped it would generate discussion. I knew I could not really say anything of substance at that point, so I decided to do something fun that would get people talking. I see absolutely nothing wrong with that. When you look at this post and contrast it to some first few posts, you can clearly see that singling me out as a target is rather silly.


But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam.

Show nested quote +
Just because Stim seems scummier than fyfy doesn't mean fyfy shouldn't be voted. I wanted fyfy to talk and I wanted to draw attention to him. That was the reason for my vote. Nothing more, nothing less. We can address Stim now that I am awake.


But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more...


Show nested quote +
I almost agree with everything you said. The problem arises when you realize that the case you've made for aqua is a hell of a lot stronger than the case you've made for Chromatically. Is this something you have overlooked? Or are you deliberately weaving a story to pit town against one another? For the time being, it's hard to tell one way or the other, but I did enjoy reading.


So you agree with almost everything?

Show nested quote +
Regardless, I see your story as a plausible conspiracy theory, at best. Acting upon it without further evidence is dangerous. Most of your post relies on speculation about the player's true motives.


Show nested quote +
I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion.


You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast?


Show nested quote +
3) You defended fyfy while accusing me of not voting for Stim instead of fyfy. There was no reason to say that when both were perfectly good lurker targets that were largely interchangeable.


But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had.

Show nested quote +
3) My point is your reason is stupid. What difference does one line of posting make? Seriously? Accusing me of being scum based on one line that someone else wrote?


It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not.

Show nested quote +
2) For fyfy, I still hold that there is no difference between the lurkers and you claimed that there is a difference. I think your reasons for claiming that there is a difference are stupid and make no sense because only one line separated one from the other. Why do you continue to defend fyfy? It's quite intriguing.


Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant.


Show nested quote +
I would remind everyone of the voting rules.Voting rules:Voting is done in this thread. You cannot PM me your vote.Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion may not be counted. Vote counts will be updated whenever intermittently.No conditional voting.You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game.In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).You may vote for a No Lynch in the format: ##Vote: No LynchVoting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.If you do not think Chromatically is scum, then please vote either 1) No lynch or 2) Someone else.In the event of a tie, the person who gets voted up first, dies.


Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space.

Show nested quote +
Sounds great! Could you consider looking through Xzavier's filter and reading Chromatically's case against Xzavier and consider voting for him? I would be willing to take you off my scum list if you would do that.


So you are happy at first with my statement what changed?

Show nested quote +
I concur. The Xzavier lynch didn't actually have the highest chance of flipping scum for me; however, it definitely provided invaluable information that we can use throughout the game. I'm glad to see we agree.


So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY?

Show nested quote +
I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point.P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink*


Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it.

Show nested quote +
So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team. If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame.If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him.Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum.The ball is in your court.


This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also.

Show nested quote +
Bullying? I don't see how this is bullying at all. I'm giving him a choice that he can choose to accept or not and I letting him know the consequences of his decision.


If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying.

Show nested quote +
Also, Onegu isn't being pro-town by calling me scummy. He's being anti-town. Almost all of town agrees that I have been one of the most pro-town players this entire game.


Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game.

You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum.

Nearly all of his points refer to supposed "scum-tells" that occurred pre-lynch. If he thought those were scum-tells, why didn't he bother to bring it up when it actually mattered? Why did he conveniently start to think I was scummy RIGHT AFTER I accused him?

The only explanation for this sort of behavior is that he doesn't actually think I am scummy, he is just looking for reasons to convince others to think I am scummy so no one will vote him.

TL;DR: Please, don't take shortcuts reading this if you are town. I took a great deal of time to compile this and it is the best possible case against Onegu I could ever make. Skimming is not going to cut it. If you actually read this entire thing and don't agree that Onegu is at least a little scummy,without giving any valid reasoning, I am just going to assume you are scum.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 12:33 GMT
#947
EBWOP:
On June 27 2013 20:43 FirmTofu wrote:
Elaboration on why apathy is a problem: Onegu's apathy towards the lynch on day 1 is a clear scum tell. An honest townie, in his position, would never have switched from voting Aquanim to voting Alakaslam. Even if the townie thought Aquanim was a sub-optimal lynch, he would have been willing to pursue because it was the only lynch that was even remotely likely to go through that he agreed with.


Bolded parts are added words.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 14:48 GMT
#952
@Spicy

After looking over my case on Onegu, what are your thoughts on him?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 14:52 GMT
#953
On June 27 2013 22:39 Aquanim wrote:
Still mulling over your case FirmTofu.

I would like to see Onegu's reply before making my comments.

A few things to be wary of:

Onegu is probably shitting his pants right now along with his scum team, who are currently trying to come up with the best plan that minimizes their losses.

You need to hold Onegu accountable not only for his response, but also the time he takes to formulate one. The longer he takes, the more indicative it is that he is scum.

I apologize for all the grammatical and spelling mistakes in my case against Onegu btw, I was really tired when I wrote that.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 15:05 GMT
#956
On June 27 2013 23:58 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 23:52 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 22:39 Aquanim wrote:
Still mulling over your case FirmTofu.

I would like to see Onegu's reply before making my comments.

A few things to be wary of:

Onegu is probably shitting his pants right now along with his scum team, who are currently trying to come up with the best plan that minimizes their losses.

You need to hold Onegu accountable not only for his response, but also the time he takes to formulate one. The longer he takes, the more indicative it is that he is scum.

I apologize for all the grammatical and spelling mistakes in my case against Onegu btw, I was really tired when I wrote that.

I don't think you should ever try to judge someone's alignment based on how slowly they reply to you (within reason, of course <stares at StiMaDDict again>). You never know whether real life interfered, or they just needed to think about it for a while, or anything else.

Just be aware that time is a constraint and you may not want to hold off on conveying your opinions about Onegu until the last minute just because he hasn't replied to defend himself.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 15:32 GMT
#959
On June 28 2013 00:11 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 23:48 FirmTofu wrote:
@Spicy

After looking over my case on Onegu, what are your thoughts on him?

Got a question on point 3: How do you pressure someone during a night cycle? Did you want him to make a new case on him? What were you expecting him to post? If he was sincere about his sentiment to vote aqua because of the way the lynch goes, then i would expect a case today or a damn good reason why he is backing off of that.

Town has to maximize the night cycle to throw out all of their best scumreads so that in the event that they die, town will have the maximum possible information to work with from a sincere individual.

If Onegu was town, he would have tunneled Aquanim instead of using an OMGUS tactic to discredit me. He, as town, should have already been convinced that Aqua was scum because of his statements the previous day that if Xzavier flipped town, Aqua was scum. Even though I accused him of being mafia, a town-focused Onegu would still consider Aquanim his best scumread instead of shifting attention onto me based on a flimsy case that relies on Day 1 reads that he could have just as easily made on Day 1 itself.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 16:08 GMT
#963
On June 28 2013 00:57 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 18:33 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 18:25 Onegu wrote:
On June 27 2013 18:19 Aquanim wrote:
@Onegu: The prevailing thread sentiment at the moment appears to be that you are a favoured lynch for today. I imagine you don't want that, so who do you think we should lynch instead? Your goal should be to persuade the thread that your scum read is more likely to flip scum than you are.


My strongest read to flip scum is firmtofu, he has lied and bullied to get his vote on someone he said wasnt likely to flip scum.

That has got to be the worst interpretation of my actions I have ever read.

My lie was told to Hurricane to save Aquanim from a lynch.
My "bullying"(I don't even agree with this term) was so Alakaslam would vote for you.

When did I say you were not likely to flip scum, exactly?

Not me you said Xzavier wasnt likely to flip scum.

And what you did is bullying, telling some one to do something and if they dont you will label them scum and get them lynched is bullying.

No I didn't. Please quote where I said Xzavier wasn't likely to flip scum.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 16:09 GMT
#965
On June 28 2013 01:08 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 00:57 Onegu wrote:
On June 27 2013 18:33 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 18:25 Onegu wrote:
On June 27 2013 18:19 Aquanim wrote:
@Onegu: The prevailing thread sentiment at the moment appears to be that you are a favoured lynch for today. I imagine you don't want that, so who do you think we should lynch instead? Your goal should be to persuade the thread that your scum read is more likely to flip scum than you are.


My strongest read to flip scum is firmtofu, he has lied and bullied to get his vote on someone he said wasnt likely to flip scum.

That has got to be the worst interpretation of my actions I have ever read.

My lie was told to Hurricane to save Aquanim from a lynch.
My "bullying"(I don't even agree with this term) was so Alakaslam would vote for you.

When did I say you were not likely to flip scum, exactly?

Not me you said Xzavier wasnt likely to flip scum.

And what you did is bullying, telling some one to do something and if they dont you will label them scum and get them lynched is bullying.

No I didn't. Please quote where I said Xzavier wasn't likely to flip scum.

I said Xzavier wasn't the MOST likely. I never said he wasn't likely.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 16:16 GMT
#969
On June 28 2013 01:15 Onegu wrote:
And youmsay you hoped they lie wouldnt be caught. You case on me is based only on my apathy and that isnt a scum tell, my case on you is legit.

I will leave it to town to decide which case is better. Townies, thoughts please?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 16:27 GMT
#972
On June 28 2013 01:21 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 23:52 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 27 2013 22:39 Aquanim wrote:
Still mulling over your case FirmTofu.

I would like to see Onegu's reply before making my comments.

A few things to be wary of:

Onegu is probably shitting his pants right now along with his scum team, who are currently trying to come up with the best plan that minimizes their losses.

You need to hold Onegu accountable not only for his response, but also the time he takes to formulate one. The longer he takes, the more indicative it is that he is scum.

I apologize for all the grammatical and spelling mistakes in my case against Onegu btw, I was really tired when I wrote that.



Wow very nice I was at the hospital, go read my blog I am disabled and my son is disabled so sometimes I have to take him or mymyself to the hospital, so the time it takes for me to respond is in no way a scum tell.

Really people have lives besides mafia so how long it takes for someone to respond is in no way a scum tell stop makeing up scum tells to push your lynches.

I didn't say it was a scum tell, I said it was indicative that you are more likely to be scum. You didn't tell us you were going to the hospital, so how am I supposed to know that. I hope your son is okay.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 16:28 GMT
#974
On June 28 2013 01:24 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 00:32 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 28 2013 00:11 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 27 2013 23:48 FirmTofu wrote:
@Spicy

After looking over my case on Onegu, what are your thoughts on him?

Got a question on point 3: How do you pressure someone during a night cycle? Did you want him to make a new case on him? What were you expecting him to post? If he was sincere about his sentiment to vote aqua because of the way the lynch goes, then i would expect a case today or a damn good reason why he is backing off of that.

Town has to maximize the night cycle to throw out all of their best scumreads so that in the event that they die, town will have the maximum possible information to work with from a sincere individual.

If Onegu was town, he would have tunneled Aquanim instead of using an OMGUS tactic to discredit me. He, as town, should have already been convinced that Aqua was scum because of his statements the previous day that if Xzavier flipped town, Aqua was scum. Even though I accused him of being mafia, a town-focused Onegu would still consider Aquanim his best scumread instead of shifting attention onto me based on a flimsy case that relies on Day 1 reads that he could have just as easily made on Day 1 itself.



I made a case on Aqua during the night, after I made it I went through your filter and made a case on you. I have in no way stopped on aqua, aqua even says during day 2 that I am tunneling him...

Tunneling entails pushing for the lynch, not just criticizing his activities. Regardless, I suspect that you would be apathetic to a lynch between me or Aquanim, am I right?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 18:57 GMT
#986
On June 28 2013 03:39 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 02:12 LoneMeow wrote:
SpicyDinosaur, I haven't seen any recent scum reads from you, who are you suspecting currently and why?


Really? You are probably the only person in the thread besides stim who hasn't seen tofu and i going at each other. As i said my my night post that you, stim, onegu, and alakaslam are who im looking at. I want to see more people posting today so i can narrow down a vote for tomorrow.

I would just like to say that I have moved you and Alakaslam onto my town list. I will expand on this during night. Right now, I want to focus on getting the lynch on Onegu through. I sincerely hope we can count on your vote.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 23:32 GMT
#1001
I believe his "strongest town read" is hzflank or Spicy
By the process of elimination, it cannot be Alakaslam, me, or Aquanim because he has stated his suspicions for all of us.
It cannot be LoneMeow or StiM because a lurker cannot be rational person's strongest town read.
It probably isn't Hurricane because Hurricane is currently pushing a strong case against him.
The only players left are Spicy and hzflank.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 23:44 GMT
#1004
He is claiming that either Spicy or hzflank is a blue town role that visited Alakaslam last right.

He refuses to say which of the two, but it is very easy to narrow down for any observer. What purpose did it serve to keep town in the dark?

Either hzflank or Spicy needs to confirm what Onegu is saying about them, otherwise an Onegu lynch remains inevitable.
Even if hzflank or Spicy confirm, we have to consider that they may be in a mafia team together. We will need to gather evidence for and against this and analyze it with the information we have at our disposal.

It could also be the case that Onegu is a mafia tracker who tracked a town hzflank or Spicy to Alakaslam's house. We would also have to find evidence to refute this possibility.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 23:47 GMT
#1005
On June 28 2013 08:40 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 08:32 FirmTofu wrote:
I believe his "strongest town read" is hzflank or Spicy
By the process of elimination, it cannot be Alakaslam, me, or Aquanim because he has stated his suspicions for all of us.
It cannot be LoneMeow or StiM because a lurker cannot be rational person's strongest town read.
It probably isn't Hurricane because Hurricane is currently pushing a strong case against him.
The only players left are Spicy and hzflank.

I'd really prefer not to speculate about it.

I'm only stating the obvious. Any mafia team could easily deduce the same conclusion. We shouldn't be silent just because you think a mafia team might use our reasoning against us.

We need to be talking and analyzing this claim. Lets go!!!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 27 2013 23:47 GMT
#1006
On June 28 2013 08:41 Aquanim wrote:
By the way, FirmTofu, my reply to your case is a little redundant now that Onegu has claimed - do you still want to see it?

Nothing is redundant. Please show it.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 00:01 GMT
#1012
On June 28 2013 08:51 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 08:44 FirmTofu wrote:
He is claiming that either Spicy or hzflank is a blue town role that visited Alakaslam last right.

He refuses to say which of the two, but it is very easy to narrow down for any observer. What purpose did it serve to keep town in the dark?

Either hzflank or Spicy needs to confirm what Onegu is saying about them, otherwise an Onegu lynch remains inevitable.
Even if hzflank or Spicy confirm, we have to consider that they may be in a mafia team together. We will need to gather evidence for and against this and analyze it with the information we have at our disposal.

It could also be the case that Onegu is a mafia tracker who tracked a town hzflank or Spicy to Alakaslam's house. We would also have to find evidence to refute this possibility.


Kinda hypocritical of you right there?

Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 03:57 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 28 2013 03:39 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 28 2013 02:12 LoneMeow wrote:
SpicyDinosaur, I haven't seen any recent scum reads from you, who are you suspecting currently and why?


Really? You are probably the only person in the thread besides stim who hasn't seen tofu and i going at each other. As i said my my night post that you, stim, onegu, and alakaslam are who im looking at. I want to see more people posting today so i can narrow down a vote for tomorrow.

I would just like to say that I have moved you and Alakaslam onto my town list. I will expand on this during night. Right now, I want to focus on getting the lynch on Onegu through. I sincerely hope we can count on your vote.



More information is better for town.

No, not hypocritical. Telling you why you are a town read for me serves to purpose except to derail the thread into a tangent about you. I had one purpose back when I said that, and that was to push my biggest scum read (Onegu).

On the other hand, when Onegu keeps is in the dark here, scum is the only party that gains an advantage. He can't just claim, run off to bed without clarifying his night actions, and expect to get off scot-free.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 00:11 GMT
#1016
On June 28 2013 08:57 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 08:47 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 28 2013 08:41 Aquanim wrote:
By the way, FirmTofu, my reply to your case is a little redundant now that Onegu has claimed - do you still want to see it?

Nothing is redundant. Please show it.

Here it is.

+ Show Spoiler +

I'll go through FirmTofu's case point by point.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 27 2013 20:43 FirmTofu wrote:
FirmTofu's Case Against Onegu

Point #1: Onegu seems to be looking for reasons to vote me that he doesn't necessarily even agree with.

Example: Onegu initially states that meta is bad and you should "stop trying to meta peoples play."
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:10 Onegu wrote:
On June 24 2013 15:46 Alakaslam wrote:
On June 24 2013 15:35 Onegu wrote:
On June 24 2013 15:32 Alakaslam wrote:
I know I sai I'd go but this came up.

From the post for us newbs:

"Please do not talk about any ongoing games either in-game or pre-game. This can affect other games and is unacceptable. Please do not refer to outside-of- thread activity of players in this thread."

I have already messed up in this regard and I apologize. But note some folks have also talked about meta from previous newbie games and I don't think we are allowed to do that either. Will ask In green tomorrow when not trying to go to bed and when at computer. (iPhone)



We are ok since the games we are talking about have finished already.

Sweet! Thanks again Onegu.

I think I'll read those then- Tomorrow. Man this is worse than angry birds, I am thoroughly addicted.

For now here is a list, so ALL of town can meta :D

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=412757
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=407058
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=405359

Sorry that there is no meta on me, I'm that new.

Note that some players may not only have played newbie games. Search their names! How late you want me up, midnight? I get up at 5 tomorrow!

Also, check that you don't get into the above error first.



Ok guys meta on peoples play you shold have played with that person at least 5 times, as this is impossible please stop trying to meta peoples play. It is ok to infer somethings on game setup, but people are still learning thier playstyle in a newbie game so you cannot base a scum read on meta play in noob games...


Then, when he wants to make a case against me, he uses my failure to use meta as an excuse to call me scummy.

Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote:As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.


Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia.


It seems like Onegu has differing views on meta depending on when it is convenient for him to think one way or another.

Inconsistency can be a sign that a player is not seriously analysing the thread, which reflects a scum-mentality.
However, I don't think Onegu is being inconsistent with his views on meta here.
The first of Onegu's posts quoted here is saying that Onegu thinks that we should not use meta. This post isn't particularly useful but not all posts are.
The second of Onegu's posts is observing that FirmTofu's post (which also states that we shouldn't use meta) does not contain a particularly good reason for not using meta. And to be honest, I partially agree with him. While it's a legitimate view for FirmTofu to hold, just because something is "boring" doesn't mean it's a bad idea.
Onegu's post does NOT say that he disagrees with FirmTofu about whether meta should be used, only with the argument which FirmTofu used.

Summary: I see no contradiction here. In fact, observing that someone whose opinion you agree with has nevertheless justified that opinion poorly indicates a reasonable level of analysis to me.

+ Show Spoiler +




Point #2: Onegu switched his vote from Aquanim to Alakaslam rather arbitrarily, suggesting that he knew Aquanim would flip town and everyone would blame him, so he moved to his "second best" scum read.

Example: Here we see Onegu buiding a case for Aquanim and establishing that he believes Alakaslam is "noob scum" and is a lower priority lynch to Aquanim. I have bolded all relevant areas.
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 16:58 Onegu wrote:
On June 25 2013 16:48 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 25 2013 16:45 Onegu wrote:
On June 25 2013 16:33 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 16:01 Onegu wrote:
On June 25 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote:
I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum.

##Vote: Aquanim

Can you explain this some more? What exactly about my play do you think is scum-motivated?

Can you please post your case against me as the only thing you have said is I didnt respond when things were going on, well I was going to sleep when HZ posted his case, I responded to the NN thing and have scum hunted and tried to create a useful town atmosphere.

I have no idea what this request has to do with the post you quoted, but whatever...

The first page and a half or so of your filter is just talking about policy, power roles and random fluff without any particular intention of finding scum. This isn't damning in as of itself, early game does tend to be like that, but the entirety of your efforts in the direction of finding scum is an overwhelming tunnel of myself.

As far as I can tell, you haven't looked at anyone else at all, and endlessly tunneling a likely lynch target for the day while repeating the same old arguments (made by other people before you, mostly) over and over is a good way to look active while not actually bringing anything new to the table or having to pretend to do some original scumhunting. You haven't made any significant and new contributions to the thread, which is scum's natural state.

That being said, I think it's possible that you're town and that you think tunneling me like this is accomplishing something, which is why I'm voting Xzavier over you.

Actually I have made a scum hunt albit small on alakaslam, I think he is noob scum which isnt as important as killing a scum who knows what they are doing.

Jesus Christ bud, if you think he's scum, by all means vote him. It's not like you know of any scum who know what they're doing, so you not voting for Alakasam is extremely suspicious to me.

If I have 2 scum reads I am going to vote for the one that is the biggest threat to town. And the reason I think he is scum is he posts only fluff offers no posts to help town and offers no reads on anyone at all. The only thing he has said is spicy and onegu defend yourself. Then he dissapears, I feel this is super noob scum play but in no way is dangerous to town, on the other hand aqua has posted dangerous even harmful ideas toward town.


Then, as soon as he is pressured, he backs away from Aquanim. CONTEXT! At this point, removing his vote caused the tiebreak scenario between the lynch of Xzavier and the lynch of Aquanim to be lifted. In essence, this move sealed Xzavier's fate and saved Aquanim from being a probable lynch. This ensured that Onegu would not look suspicious post-lynch because he wouldn't be responsible for the death of a townie.

Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote:
On June 25 2013 17:35 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 17:27 hzflank wrote:
Xzavier, Onegu and I all seem to have similar opinions on scum voting, yet we all seem to have greatly differing personalities. This leads me to believe that Xzavier and Onegu are town, as I think they arrived at their opinions by looking at the situation from a town point of view.

The only slight worry I have on Xzavier is:

On June 25 2013 14:33 Xzavier wrote:
Whats the massive scum yell. cuz im not gonna lie. i skimmed threw all the noisy neighbor spam just to see who was asking for them to claim. no other part of it means anything to me xD


But that could just be a character trait or a lack of time. On the whole I am uncomfortable with the votes on Xzavier.

Is there anything about Xzavier and Onegu's play which makes you think they're town besides where their vote is? Personally, I can't see anything about their play which makes me think they're looking at this game with a town mentality and actually searching for scum, rather than just jumping on the only other wagon going.

I think they are likely scum but I have a much townier read on you because I can see you're thinking about the game and critically evaluating your reads. Their arguments, on the other hand, are mostly "herp derp he disagreed with us about nosy neighbours" and "look at this single post and how it agrees with something someone else said, that's so scummy!". I don't think either of them could sincerely believe I'm scum based on the arguments they've presented.

You said you had some questions for me, will they be forthcoming soon?


Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case.

##: UNVOTE

##: VOTE ALAKASLAM


But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2.




The explanation that Onegu jumped from voting me to Alakaslam because he didn't want to take responsibility for my lynch is plausible.
However, I also think it's plausible that Onegu, as town, reassessed his case on me and found that it was weaker than his case on Alakaslam, which is indeed how he justified it:
On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote:
...
Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case.

##: UNVOTE

##: VOTE ALAKASLAM

...
But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2.

I think this is an entirely reasonable town reaction. He realises that the case he's not voting is the stronger one for as long as he doesn't know Xzavier's alignment, and so he switches to it.
Obviously, knowing the alignment of Xzavier could change his reads - a lot of the play in day 1 centred around Xzavier, knowing his alignment is obviously going to give you a lot of context for your reads.
Making decisions conditional on which way somebody flips isn't something which I think would come naturally to scum.

+ Show Spoiler +

Point #3: Onegu was wanted to lynch Aquanim if Xzavier flipped town, but post-lynch, he didn't even pursue Aquanim at all.

(See last quoted post) The most critical part of this post lies in the last sentence. What changed? Why did he give up on Aquanim? Nearly all of Onegu's case for me relies on events that happened prior to this post. There is absolutely no reason for him to suddenly switch his vbest scum read from Aquanim to me. A townie in this position after Xzavier's flip as town would pursue Aquanim to no end. The only explanation here is that Onegu is scum, and he sees me as a greater threat to his mafia team than Aquanim.



I distinctly recall him making a case on me after the lynch. He chose to pursue you as his primary target, but he still has me on his scum list. I don't see how partially changing his mind makes Onegu scum. In fact, flexibility in changing one's reads as you get more information about your targets is a clear town sign.

+ Show Spoiler +

Point #4: Onegu declared his apathy to both the Xzavier and Aquanim lynches shortly thereafter with no developments other than his case for Alakaslam.

Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote:
On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.

As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu

They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.

Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.


To be honest I dont care who is killed if Xzavier flips town my vote will go on aquanim and if he flips scum I will vote Spicydinosaur. My current read on Xzavier is null with scum reads on alakaslam and aqua. With every post Alakaslam makes he looks more and more like noob scum to me.

Note: He reiterates that if Xzavier flips town, Onegu's vote will go to Aquanim. This is further evidence for Point #2 and is also indicative that Onegu still has not shifted his suspicions onto me.

He says he has scum reads on Alakaslam and Aqua, but doesn't vote for Aqua who was the only one likely to be lynched that day. The scum reasoning behind this is that he doesn't want to be suspected post lynch(Point #2). A townie would be willing to push their second best scum read(Aquanim) if he was the only scum read that was even on the table. Only scum would try and pretend as though Alakaslam was a viable option.

Elaboration on why apathy is a problem: Onegu's apathy towards the lynch on day 1 is a clear scum tell. An honest townie, in his position, would never have switched from voting Aquanim to voting Alakaslam. Even if the townie thought Aquanim was a sub-optimal lynch, he would have been willing to pursue it was the lynch that was even remotely likely to go through that he agreed with.

However, scum Onegu was obviously apathetic about the lynch because he knew that, no matter what, a townie would die. Therefore, to clear himself of blame, he quickly got off the wagon he was currently on and allowed the other wagon to take precedence. This way, no one could accuse him of being the reason for getting a townie killed. It was a brilliant move, until of course, he was honest about his true intentions.

This is a plausible reason why a scum Onegu would do this. However, there is a reasonable town explanation, and it's quite simple. Onegu thought that Alakaslam was more likely to flip scum than either myself or Xzavier. I admit that Onegu did not raise hell to convince other players to switch to Alakaslam. However, he did in fact make a case on Alakaslam, so it's not like he didn't apply any effort at all to convincing us.

This raises the question of "Could Onegu have reasonably believed that Alakaslam was more likely to be scum?". I believe the answer to this question is yes. His case on Alakaslam is basically "Alakaslam has posted nothing of worth when there was plenty of worth that could have been said", which is pretty much all you can actually say about Alakaslam. This is a pretty decent reason for thinking Alakaslam was scum, as opposed to his case on me (which never made any sense).

Actually saying that "I don't care who is killed" is a pretty impressive slip of the tongue. However, I don't think it's entirely implausible that a town Onegu could be largely apathetic as to which of his null-to-scum reads is lynched, given that he doesn't think his main read Alakaslam is going to get lynched. He tried to convince the thread to lynch his main suspect, Alakaslam - when that failed, he was justifiably not hugely invested in the lynch.

Towards the end of the day, the Xzavier wagon was clearly leading. (In fact, the only two votes on me at the end IIRC were Xzavier himself and StiMaDDict.) Jumping on my wagon again would have been absolutely futile, and since he didn't think that Xzavier was scum obviously he wouldn't jump on that one either. Staying on Alakaslam was a REASONABLE thing for a townie to do in Onegu's position. Sure, it would have been better to argue even more for an Alakaslam lynch, but not everybody has the backbone to stare down the rest of the thread over a read nobody else shares.

+ Show Spoiler +



Point #5: Onegu's entire case against me is a scummy OMGUS that only serves to maim my authority and credibility.

The only thing that happened right after post-lynch was that Chromatically and I drafted up separate cases against Onegu. Nothing else changed. There was absolutely no reason for Onegu to change his scum read of Aquanim to suddenly attack me.

Here is his case for reference.
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote:
Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also.


Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote:
Scum Hunt Day 1:
On June 24 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:
hey guys

Analysis: Trying to appear friendly with an innocuous greeting. Seems to project an air of insecurity.
Preliminary Conclusion: Scum

On June 24 2013 11:01 StiMaDDict wrote:
so it begins..

Analysis: Neutral statement of fact.
Preliminary Conclusion: Need more information.

On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Analysis: Exudes power with strong capitalization techniques along with a greeting.
Preliminary Conclusion: A leader with a powerful role.

On June 24 2013 11:03 Xzavier wrote:
Spicy <3 hello again.

Analysis: Trying to establish a connection with a player that he has interacted with prior to this game. A metagaming, manipulative sort of move.
Preliminary Conclusion: Scummy

On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote:
Why so scummy, Spicy?

Analysis: First baseless accusation. As the old chinese proverb states, "He who smelt it, dealt it."
Preliminary Conclusion: Scum

Suggested Lynch: Chromatically


His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS.

Show nested quote +
As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.


Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia.


As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim.

Show nested quote +
As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim.


Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment.

Show nested quote +
It wasn't pure spam, and I certainly hoped it would generate discussion. I knew I could not really say anything of substance at that point, so I decided to do something fun that would get people talking. I see absolutely nothing wrong with that. When you look at this post and contrast it to some first few posts, you can clearly see that singling me out as a target is rather silly.


But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam.

Show nested quote +
Just because Stim seems scummier than fyfy doesn't mean fyfy shouldn't be voted. I wanted fyfy to talk and I wanted to draw attention to him. That was the reason for my vote. Nothing more, nothing less. We can address Stim now that I am awake.


But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more...


Show nested quote +
I almost agree with everything you said. The problem arises when you realize that the case you've made for aqua is a hell of a lot stronger than the case you've made for Chromatically. Is this something you have overlooked? Or are you deliberately weaving a story to pit town against one another? For the time being, it's hard to tell one way or the other, but I did enjoy reading.


So you agree with almost everything?

Show nested quote +
Regardless, I see your story as a plausible conspiracy theory, at best. Acting upon it without further evidence is dangerous. Most of your post relies on speculation about the player's true motives.


Show nested quote +
I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion.


You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast?


Show nested quote +
3) You defended fyfy while accusing me of not voting for Stim instead of fyfy. There was no reason to say that when both were perfectly good lurker targets that were largely interchangeable.


But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had.

Show nested quote +
3) My point is your reason is stupid. What difference does one line of posting make? Seriously? Accusing me of being scum based on one line that someone else wrote?


It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not.

Show nested quote +
2) For fyfy, I still hold that there is no difference between the lurkers and you claimed that there is a difference. I think your reasons for claiming that there is a difference are stupid and make no sense because only one line separated one from the other. Why do you continue to defend fyfy? It's quite intriguing.


Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant.


Show nested quote +
I would remind everyone of the voting rules.Voting rules:Voting is done in this thread. You cannot PM me your vote.Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion may not be counted. Vote counts will be updated whenever intermittently.No conditional voting.You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game.In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).You may vote for a No Lynch in the format: ##Vote: No LynchVoting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.If you do not think Chromatically is scum, then please vote either 1) No lynch or 2) Someone else.In the event of a tie, the person who gets voted up first, dies.


Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space.

Show nested quote +
Sounds great! Could you consider looking through Xzavier's filter and reading Chromatically's case against Xzavier and consider voting for him? I would be willing to take you off my scum list if you would do that.


So you are happy at first with my statement what changed?

Show nested quote +
I concur. The Xzavier lynch didn't actually have the highest chance of flipping scum for me; however, it definitely provided invaluable information that we can use throughout the game. I'm glad to see we agree.


So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY?

Show nested quote +
I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point.P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink*


Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it.

Show nested quote +
So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team. If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame.If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him.Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum.The ball is in your court.


This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also.

Show nested quote +
Bullying? I don't see how this is bullying at all. I'm giving him a choice that he can choose to accept or not and I letting him know the consequences of his decision.


If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying.

Show nested quote +
Also, Onegu isn't being pro-town by calling me scummy. He's being anti-town. Almost all of town agrees that I have been one of the most pro-town players this entire game.


Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game.

You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum.

Nearly all of his points refer to supposed "scum-tells" that occurred pre-lynch. If he thought those were scum-tells, why didn't he bother to bring it up when it actually mattered? Why did he conveniently start to think I was scummy RIGHT AFTER I accused him?

The only explanation for this sort of behavior is that he doesn't actually think I am scummy, he is just looking for reasons to convince others to think I am scummy so no one will vote him.

Are you seriously trying to tell me that there is something scummy about rereading day 1, with the retrospective knowledge of who got lynched, and drawing new conclusions based on that? I guess that makes me scum then... and you... and everybody else in this game (with the possible exception of StiMaDDict).

I'd also like to tell a little story here. Imagine you are a townie named Q, making scumreads and generally playing the game. Suddenly one of your scumreads says to someone else: "Vote Q or I'll assume that you're both scum and lynch you!". What is your reaction to that going to be?
While I personally don't think that that statement makes FirmTofu scum (if only because it would be way, way too stupid) I'm not even suprised that Onegu went apeshit over it. I probably would have, in his position.

Summary: It's a nice little case FirmTofu has built up here, I believe that he believes it, and I think he's townier as a result... but he's wrong. None of this makes Onegu scum, and a fair bit of it in fact makes me think that Onegu is town.



Why Onegu is town

He's looking for scum. No, really...

In this game, Onegu is suspicious of a lot of people, I might even say paranoid. Most of his posts are talking directly about why another player is scum. Staying on-point with this approach to the game strongly indicates to me that his goal in the game is in fact to find scum.

+ Show Spoiler [meta] +

In the last game, where he was scum, Onegu was MUCH less direct about his suspicions and his posts generally contained a lot more fluff.


In my view his suspicions this game have been both consistent and flexible, both marks of a town-y thought process directing them. Consistent in that he hasn't suddenly changed his mind about anything without justifying it, and Flexible in that he has in fact changed his mind when new evidence presents itself.

Looking at a player's overall attitude to the game is in my mind a far more reliable approach than focusing on individual scummy things they did. (Learned through painful past experience of mislynching townies who made dire mistakes.)

I don't really agree with you on a lot of points, but I can't see you deriving this up as scum. Thanks for all the input.
The problem remains that no matter what, Onegu still has the best case against him by any player. Unless you have a stronger scum read and you can make a case for his lynch, you may have to lynch sub optimally.

Consider the situation where you are wrong about Onegu. Scum will likely bandwagon whoever you choose to lynch as long as it isn't one of their teammates because they want to save Onegu. Be watchful of any bandwagons that form conveniently quickly on your scum reads. Also, I hope you have drafted a potential mafia team of 3 people . If Onegu isn't mafia, which 3 people are most likely to be on a team together? Are their voting patterns today indicative of their partnership?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 00:17 GMT
#1019
@Hurricane

Are you not even willing to consider that Onegu may have lied about his claim? Are we just going to throw away all of the scum reads that we have built up over the course of the thread because of one claim that hasn't even been verified?

I still don't see how this claim exonerates Onegu from a lynch when any scum could have easily pulled it off.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 00:31 GMT
#1025
I will provide my scum reads under the assumption that Onegu is sincere town shortly.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 01:18 GMT
#1034
On June 28 2013 10:09 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 10:01 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 28 2013 09:57 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Until Alakaslam enters the thread, our time would be better spent discussing other scumreads (if for nothing else, than to get our heads a little cooler on the claim issue).

LoneMeow has put a vote on Alakaslam, and has been pretty stingy with his reads. Chromatically raised an excellent point in his pre-NK post that LM has been very clever about following thread sentiment without raising any attention.

1. Doesn't want to make waves
2. Lurks hardcore
3. Accuses others of not contributing

The next original thought I hear out of LoneMeow will be the first. Put your cards on the table, LM. What are your scum reads?


He has been flying under the radar. Though the alakslam vote seems different, wouldn't it be easier to just sheep onto the onegu vote?

Either way, needs more posting than 1 person per round.


I seem to be the only one defending Alakaslam. At this point, I'm willing to consider that my read is wrong. Reading through his filter, I just seem to get the over-eager vibe from a guy who's really new to (and maybe not suited for) this game. I'm not in the business of defending people when they should be defending themselves, but I honestly don't think he has the ability to capably defend himself. His first reaction when pressured was to throw in the towel and martyr'd hard:

Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 21:49 Alakaslam wrote:
On June 25 2013 18:48 Onegu wrote:
I believe this is his first game of mafia ever irl or forum and he got scum read over some old games and didnt really know what to do so he tried to look active by posting but didnt actually post anything useful. I think he is scum but to be honest doesnt he doesnt know what he is doing.


This is half true.

I was terrified of being lynched, scum fall prey to that but there are other roles that have this affect on newbs.

There is nothing I can do and I saw this coming soon a my quote included "make it clean like this guys" and it was the absolute worst looking post in the thread after having posted just to show that I was no lurker.

I also played selfishly (as you'll see on flip) rather than from a town mindset. I started to seek survival and that is scummy and I know it too, is the sad thing. Just didn't put 2 &2 together, did not expect to wind up feeling like I was all survivalist as town :p

I'm really sorry I couldn't put anything useful down before my likely exit, but this is my last ditch effort:

Allow me to last the night. I still can't do much but I am a broken sheep, so looks like I'll go independent.


Scum reads? Finally got one: Aquanim. Haven't read filters, haven't got a case, just want to contribute a skimmer's gut feeling before possible drasticness. Take it or leave it, especially as I must sleep as checkout is 1 pm and I checked In at a defeated 4:30. Fail at job, fail here but there is always another game and the farm will irrigate again in a week or less.

Ps: actually I have done table mafia but that is very different, I suck at that because I have AS. I thought I'd have a chance here, and still think so- just decided to go nuts in terror despite some awesome coaching to the contrary :D :S

Great learning experience! The greats do what they do with skill. A silver leaguer trying to sentry expand may often find it countered by mass hydra (olllld WoL meta)- must start with Probes and Pylons, Probes and Pylons.

Btw have a surprise final post if I get lynched/ killed XD

See y'all around, when I was looking scummy to myself I knew OMGIS, it wassa comin!


Good luck my friends, you will need it. DON'T not lynch me just because I had a hard day, if I really look scummy Lynch me dammit! Towns must know how to COMMIT! >: )

##Vote: Aquanim


Alakaslam, can you clear up this post for me? The bolded phrase in particular.

Just wanted to pop in to say I agree with your sentiments on Alakaslam, especially if Onegu is sincere town.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 02:08 GMT
#1038
Assuming Onegu is sincere town and my confirmed town reads are correct, I will employ the process of elimination to guess who the scum team might be.

We have 9 players alive. I know I am town. I am convinced Hurricane and Aquanim are town and am assuming that Onegu is town.

That leaves 5 players with 2 scum roles between them.

hzflank
Alakaslam
LoneMeow
StiMaDDict
SpicyDinosaur

For me, hzflank leans town. He has been making waves in Day 1 by posting an epic conspiracy theory accusing 2 of the most active players of being mafia. He was willing to back down in the face of reason, which is another town-tell.

Alakaslam also leans town for me. Under the assumption that Onegu is town, I see no reason to believe that he is scum at all. Yeah, he posts a lot of fluff, but most of it is just easy town cred that both town and scum would want to do. He also repeatedly asks to be lynched if people are thinking he looks scummy to them. I don't see this as scum playto be at all.

LoneMeow and StiMaDDict are null reads. I have to have a look through each of their respective filters to get an idea, but if Onegu is sincere town, then I would have to subscribe to the belief that at least one of these have to be scum.

By the process of elimination, I do think that Spicy will have to be scum if Onegu is sincere town. Now, I don't want him to go batshit insane because I said this. Like I said before, I still think Onegu is lying about his claim, and if that is true, I don't think Spicy is at the top of my scum list at all. If anyone wants to know why I think Spicy comes off the worst if Onegu flips town, I may try to form a case around him once again. However, I am reluctant to do so because my read on him is reliant on the belief that Onegu is sincere town.



I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 02:11 GMT
#1039
On June 28 2013 11:08 FirmTofu wrote:
Assuming Onegu is sincere town and my confirmed town reads are correct, I will employ the process of elimination to guess who the scum team might be.

We have 9 players alive. I know I am town. I am convinced Hurricane and Aquanim are town and am assuming that Onegu is town.

That leaves 5 players with 2 scum roles between them.

hzflank
Alakaslam
LoneMeow
StiMaDDict
SpicyDinosaur

For me, hzflank leans town. He has been making waves in Day 1 by posting an epic conspiracy theory accusing 2 of the most active players of being mafia. He was willing to back down in the face of reason, which is another town-tell.

Alakaslam also leans town for me. Under the assumption that Onegu is town, I see no reason to believe that he is scum at all. Yeah, he posts a lot of fluff, but most of it is just easy town cred that both town and scum would want to do. He also repeatedly asks to be lynched if people are thinking he looks scummy to them. I don't see this as scum playto be at all.

LoneMeow and StiMaDDict are null reads. I have to have a look through each of their respective filters to get an idea, but if Onegu is sincere town, then I would have to subscribe to the belief that at least one of these have to be scum.

By the process of elimination, I do think that Spicy will have to be scum if Onegu is sincere town. Now, I don't want him to go batshit insane because I said this. Like I said before, I still think Onegu is lying about his claim, and if that is true, I don't think Spicy is at the top of my scum list at all. If anyone wants to know why I think Spicy comes off the worst if Onegu flips town, I may try to form a case around him once again. However, I am reluctant to do so because my read on him is reliant on the belief that Onegu is sincere town.




Sorry, I meant to say "3 scum roles between them". The only one of the 5 that I will not vote for is hzflank, unless someone makes a really good case around him.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 03:45 GMT
#1040
Just to get an idea of where I stand,

My most optimal lynch would be Onegu. However, if town comes to a near unanimous conclusion that Onegu is sincere town, I will defer to a lynch of Spicy.

If Spicy does not gain traction, I may be willing to support a lynch of StiM or LoneMeow. I have just read both of their filters and I think LoneMeow is slightly more likely to flip scum, but honestly it's a coin flip.

Finally, if the people I think of as confirmed town want to lynch Alakaslam, I may consider it. I really would prefer not to vote him at this juncture.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 05:19 GMT
#1045
On June 28 2013 14:06 Onegu wrote:
Ok sorry I am here, the reason I posted it before I slept last night is I wanted to get the information out there. After thinking about it I knew I wouldnt have much time today to post so I thought that was the best time because right after I sleep the thread starts to get active. I womt post why I chose to target alakaslam until he responds or until I get back later tonight as I would like to give him sometime. Also no matter what happens I will not tell you who visited him because I am 95% sure he is town.

Onegu, you have to tell us why you targeted Alakaslam. It's critical to verifying your claim. I may consider you confirmed town if you give the right answer, so it's your best bet at not being lynched today.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 05:52 GMT
#1056
@hzflank
Your points that my case is bad are perfectly valid and you are appearing more and more town to me. Thank you for that.

@Alakaslam
What exactly are you claiming? Be clear with us. Did you just claim a blue role?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 05:54 GMT
#1058
Alakaslam. Please calm down. All you need to tell us is if you were in fact visited by someone last night. Nothing more, nothing less.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:00 GMT
#1065
On June 28 2013 14:58 Alakaslam wrote:
I have no idea if I was visited but Onegu visited Hurricane.

Okay. We have a claim of tracker from Alakaslam.

Onegu and Alakaslam cannot be on the same team because their claims contradict one another.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:00 GMT
#1067
On June 28 2013 14:59 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 14:58 Alakaslam wrote:
I have no idea if I was visited but Onegu visited Hurricane.


You are claiming tracker?

Ah yes, he can still be claiming watcher and could have watched Hurricane. Good point.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:01 GMT
#1068
EBWOP: Ignore my last post
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:04 GMT
#1074
Alakaslam claims Onegu visited Hurricane.
Onegu claims his "strongest town read" visited Alakaslam.

These actions are incompatible. Onegu claims he visited Alakaslam and Alakaslam claims Onegu visited Hurricane.

We can deduce that Alakaslam and Onegu are NOT of the same alignment.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:06 GMT
#1076
I believe Onegu has still not justified his reasons for watching Alakaslam. I think Onegu is scum and has made a critical blunder. Unless some massive new developments shine through, I will be voting Onegu today.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:13 GMT
#1083
On June 28 2013 15:09 hzflank wrote:
Firm, slow down and lets think it through. My first point:

If Onegu is town then his strongest town read can vouch for him. However, that means we reveal a blue role.

The problem with this logic is that you are assuming his strongest town read is town. What if his strongest town read is mafia?

In fact, wouldn't it be more likely that his strongest town read was mafia if he himself was mafia? His thought process would be, "I'll claim watcher and my mafia scumbuddy can vouch for me so I don't get lynched today."

It all comes down to who you believe. I trust Alakaslam a lot more than I do Onegu. You are welcome to decide for yourself, but I don't think I can be convinced to change my vote at this point.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:17 GMT
#1089
On June 28 2013 15:15 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 15:13 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 28 2013 15:09 hzflank wrote:
Firm, slow down and lets think it through. My first point:

If Onegu is town then his strongest town read can vouch for him. However, that means we reveal a blue role.

The problem with this logic is that you are assuming his strongest town read is town. What if his strongest town read is mafia?

In fact, wouldn't it be more likely that his strongest town read was mafia if he himself was mafia? His thought process would be, "I'll claim watcher and my mafia scumbuddy can vouch for me so I don't get lynched today."

It all comes down to who you believe. I trust Alakaslam a lot more than I do Onegu. You are welcome to decide for yourself, but I don't think I can be convinced to change my vote at this point.


If his strongest read is scum and we mislynch Alakaslam, then we have 2 100% confirmed scum reads.

Are you suggesting we risk a mislynch to confirm 2 mafia? I'm not entirely sure if you're being serious.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:19 GMT
#1092
On June 28 2013 15:18 Onegu wrote:
I agree read shouldnt reveal as we dont want them to know all of our blue roles.

##VOTE:ALAKASLAM

Just a heads up, but I think you have to unvote me in order to vote again. I'm not entirely sure though.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:27 GMT
#1098
On June 28 2013 15:22 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 15:17 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 28 2013 15:15 hzflank wrote:
On June 28 2013 15:13 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 28 2013 15:09 hzflank wrote:
Firm, slow down and lets think it through. My first point:

If Onegu is town then his strongest town read can vouch for him. However, that means we reveal a blue role.

The problem with this logic is that you are assuming his strongest town read is town. What if his strongest town read is mafia?

In fact, wouldn't it be more likely that his strongest town read was mafia if he himself was mafia? His thought process would be, "I'll claim watcher and my mafia scumbuddy can vouch for me so I don't get lynched today."

It all comes down to who you believe. I trust Alakaslam a lot more than I do Onegu. You are welcome to decide for yourself, but I don't think I can be convinced to change my vote at this point.


If his strongest read is scum and we mislynch Alakaslam, then we have 2 100% confirmed scum reads.

Are you suggesting we risk a mislynch to confirm 2 mafia? I'm not entirely sure if you're being serious.


Not risk. If someone claims to have visited Alakaslam last night then either the claimer + Onegu are scum or Alaka is scum.

It would be stupid for a scum to make this claim. That would mean we mislych today but then get back to back scum lynches, leaving the town in a very very strong position.

It is worth sacrificing 1 town to get 2 scum, if it comes to it.

Yeah, but we don't have to sacrifice the townie at all.

Lynching Onegu gives us more information than lynching Alakaslam.
If Onegu flips town, we lynch Alakaslam.
If Onegu flips scum, we lynch his "best town read"
If Alakaslam flips town, we lynch Onegu.
If Alakaslam flips scum, we are back to square 1.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:30 GMT
#1101
On June 28 2013 15:28 Alakaslam wrote:
Hz, which town do you want to info lynch, assuming the impossible that we both are? If you do not answer people will know you are scum.

Hzflank has not said anything that implicates him as scum. Please do not antagonize him further because it will only hurt your case on Onegu.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:38 GMT
#1111
I would like to elaborate on this.

Lynching Onegu gives us more information than lynching Alakaslam.
If Onegu flips town, we lynch Alakaslam.
If Onegu flips scum, we lynch his "best town read"
If Alakaslam flips town, we lynch Onegu.
If Alakaslam flips scum, we are back to square 1.

Assuming each event has equal probability, we can rank these outcomes from most preferable to least preferable.

(1) Onegu Flips Scum -> We get a strong lead to work with for a lynch on Day 3.
By the end of Day 3 we will have 2 scum dead.
(2) Alakaslam Flips Scum -> We are back to square one.
By the end of Day 2 we will have 1 scum dead
(3) Alakaslam Flips Town -> We get confirmed scum Onegu lynched on Day 3.
By the end of Day 4 we will have 2 scum dead, but will have lost one town member.
(4) Onegu Flips Town -> We get confirmed scum Alakaslam lynched on Day 3.
By the end of Day 3, we will have 1 scum dead but will have lost one town member.

Our choices are to either choose the set (1,4) or to choose the set (2,3)
As mentioned before, the set (1,4) gives us more information in the long run, so would be a more optimal decision.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:40 GMT
#1115
On June 28 2013 15:36 jrkirby wrote:


God this game is getting so interesting!

I envy you and all the observers ><
ESPECIALLY CHROMATICALLY!!!!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:43 GMT
#1119
@hzflank

Your argument seems to be that a blue claim may come out to save Onegu from a lynch today.

I respectfully disagree. Based on current information, a scumbuddy of Onegu's would never come out and guarantee his own demise the following 2 days(along with Onegu's). It is completely irrational.

Scum should cut their losses at Onegu and force us to scumhunt to find the last few of them.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:45 GMT
#1123
On June 28 2013 15:43 FirmTofu wrote:
@hzflank

Your argument seems to be that a blue claim may come out to save Onegu from a lynch today.

I respectfully disagree. Based on current information, a scumbuddy of Onegu's would never come out and guarantee his own demise the following 2 days(along with Onegu's). It is completely irrational.

Scum should cut their losses at Onegu and force us to scumhunt to find the last few of them.

In the event that a blue claim actually occurs to save Onegu, I will consider it an actual blue and will switch my vote to Alakaslam. Barring that, my vote stays on Onegu.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:46 GMT
#1124
On June 28 2013 15:45 hzflank wrote:
Exactly, therefore the blue claim is more likely to be scum than town. Your above scenarios are correct if it is 50/50. If there is a blue claim I see it as >50% town.

Agreed.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:48 GMT
#1127
On June 28 2013 15:47 hzflank wrote:
And if there is no blue claim then Onegu is 100% scum, agreed?

I would deem it necessary, yes. Unless the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:53 GMT
#1132
On June 28 2013 15:51 Alakaslam wrote:
Town, this is really important.

Listen to tofu and hz. Onegu lynch will (somehow, you still haven't answered how we know who his strongest town read is so that we lynch him when Onegu flips red) lead to info anyway, and stun and meow have lurked so much that surviving a Lylo looks too hard for me to be willing to see town risk it. Man I wish I could put some strength behind my word! Look, if I explained (again- rolleyes) how I broke down into a small little fluffy man, would that help anyone?

I believe his "strongest town read" is SpicyDinosaur due to the process of elimination I mentioned before. I will quote it for you if you would like.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:54 GMT
#1133
On June 28 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote:
Parity Cop - is already dead, there won't be more than one

Not true. The host has stated that there can be more than one of the same blue role.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 06:59 GMT
#1141
We are going to have to wait until all the East Coast Americans wake up in order to continue. In the meantime, hopefully LoneMeow and StiM will show up with their thoughts on the matter.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 07:01 GMT
#1143
On June 28 2013 15:56 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 15:54 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 28 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote:
Parity Cop - is already dead, there won't be more than one

Not true. The host has stated that there can be more than one of the same blue role.

Yes, the hosts do state that. There never is in a normal mini. EVER. Trust me on this.

Even if there is, I think that a parity cop check on Alakaslam is conceivably worth the claim at this point.

I agree that the claim is worth it, but the fact remains that you are deliberately lying. If I recall correctly, I was crucified for this a few pages back. Just saying.

(I don't actually think it's bad to lie as town)
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 07:09 GMT
#1148
On June 28 2013 16:05 hzflank wrote:
It's obvious so I will put this out there. If Onegu is town then I am confident of who his number 1 town read is. I want to see that player posting before any blue claims are made.

Ignore this statement if it is irrelevant to yours. Remember that Hurricane pushed for Onegu's lynch.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 07:11 GMT
#1150
On June 28 2013 16:06 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 16:01 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 28 2013 15:56 Aquanim wrote:
On June 28 2013 15:54 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 28 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote:
Parity Cop - is already dead, there won't be more than one

Not true. The host has stated that there can be more than one of the same blue role.

Yes, the hosts do state that. There never is in a normal mini. EVER. Trust me on this.

Even if there is, I think that a parity cop check on Alakaslam is conceivably worth the claim at this point.

I agree that the claim is worth it, but the fact remains that you are deliberately lying. If I recall correctly, I was crucified for this a few pages back. Just saying.

(I don't actually think it's bad to lie as town)

I am not lying. I have never seen a doubled power-role in a normal mini game, I think that they are a fundamentally bad idea, the play of experienced players in every normal mini I have ever seen implicitly assumes there is only one, I have seen a host laughed at in the Obs QT for saying to the newbies that there might be more than one of a role...

I can tell you for a fact that there is at most one of any power role in this game.

The past does not necessarily dictate the future. Who knows, geript may be the first revolutionary host who changes the norm so that newbies actually have to be afraid of this possibility in the future. Regardless, this is a rather pointless debate and I am going to drop it starting exactly now. Please do not reply to this post.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 07:22 GMT
#1152
On June 28 2013 16:21 Alakaslam wrote:
And I am out. It's 12:20, and I am driving a bunch of high schoolers to MLG tomorrow.
I have to drop a dude off on LA, and then go down from Anaheim from there. This just went from a comfy phone check during a bath to a full blown phone in bed scenario. I don't want to die irl falling asleep at the wheel and get modkilled now do I?

Remember irl everyone but stim, meow, what's the deal. Goodnight.

Good night! Have fun at MLG!!!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 07:26 GMT
#1154
Aquanim, can you please unvote? At least temporarily?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 07:40 GMT
#1156
On June 28 2013 16:32 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 16:26 FirmTofu wrote:
Aquanim, can you please unvote? At least temporarily?

No, for the same reason I can't imagine you'll unvote Onegu: because we're lynching one or the other and I think I'm voting for scum.

Ok, fair enough.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:01 GMT
#1240
Hey guys. I think I know exactly what happened and I will make a post explaining it.
It seems I am going to have to convince hzflank because Aquanim doesn't look convincable at this point.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:16 GMT
#1246
Last night, the mafia tracker Onegu visited Hurricane.
Onegu learned that Hurricane visited Alakaslam.

This scenario is compatible with Alakaslam's claim that he tracked Onegu who visited Hurricane.

Today, Onegu was being pressured hard and wanted to get the pressure off of himself. He decided that the best way would be to claim watcher and say he watched Alakaslam and have his "strongest town read" confirm him.

The problem was that Hurricane is the Nosy Neighbor and didn't actually know where he went. That's why Hurricane came into the thread accusing Onegu, not Alakaslam.

This establishes that 1) Onegu did not make a bad move as scum. Risky? Sure. Bad? No.
2) Hurricane is innocent.

For all those who vote Alakaslam, you must ask yourselves who the other two mafias are. StiM and LoneMeow is a cop out answer.

Look at how fast the Alakaslam wagon is rising. I guaruntee that all or most of scum are already on it.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:23 GMT
#1254
Who do you think Alakaslam's teammates are if he is scum?
Who do you think Onegu's teammates are if he is scum?

Look at the bandwagons because scum will likely pick the same wagon.

This question is directed to all town, but I would like hzflank to answer specifically.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:26 GMT
#1259
On June 29 2013 01:20 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 01:16 FirmTofu wrote:
Last night, the mafia tracker Onegu visited Hurricane.
Onegu learned that Hurricane visited Alakaslam.

This scenario is compatible with Alakaslam's claim that he tracked Onegu who visited Hurricane.

Today, Onegu was being pressured hard and wanted to get the pressure off of himself. He decided that the best way would be to claim watcher and say he watched Alakaslam and have his "strongest town read" confirm him.

The problem was that Hurricane is the Nosy Neighbor and didn't actually know where he went. That's why Hurricane came into the thread accusing Onegu, not Alakaslam.

This establishes that 1) Onegu did not make a bad move as scum. Risky? Sure. Bad? No.
2) Hurricane is innocent.

For all those who vote Alakaslam, you must ask yourselves who the other two mafias are. StiM and LoneMeow is a cop out answer.

Look at how fast the Alakaslam wagon is rising. I guaruntee that all or most of scum are already on it.


Stop avoiding me and answer my question about why you changed your mind about me.

I'm not avoiding you. Answering you is useless because I have changed my mind once again an I think you are scum. I don't new to tell you why I thought you were town at one point because I no longer think that is the case.

I might tell someone who I think is town, but I'm certainly not was in my time answering your questions when we need to be focusing on this lynch.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:28 GMT
#1262
Does the nosy neighbor know who he visits at night?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:33 GMT
#1271
We need hurricane to get on and confirm my theory. Hzflank, I would advise you to unvote at look at where the votes stand. Which wagon has people on it that you would consider to be on your scum list?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:36 GMT
#1275
On June 29 2013 01:33 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 01:28 FirmTofu wrote:
Does the nosy neighbor know who he visits at night?

I have to confirm but as far as I know he does NOT know who he visits at night. 'Aware of this behaviour' means simply that he knows he is a nosy neighbour.

Just as I suspected. Your thoughts, hzflank?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:39 GMT
#1276
On June 29 2013 01:33 Alakaslam wrote:
I will be lynched. Oh and how did I know? GG, I have bamcis goodbye post comin

If Hurricane votes Onegu again or if hzflank switches his vote back to Onegu, you won't be lynched. Calm down and try to make a case for yourself. Panicking isn't going to help you.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:44 GMT
#1277
On June 29 2013 01:39 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 01:33 Alakaslam wrote:
I will be lynched. Oh and how did I know? GG, I have bamcis goodbye post comin

If Hurricane votes Onegu again or if hzflank switches his vote back to Onegu, you won't be lynched. Calm down and try to make a case for yourself. Panicking isn't going to help you.

Actually Hurricane is already on it, so we are gonna need to convince hzflank, StiM, or LoneMeow

Unfortunately, between StiM and LoneMeow, there is probably 1 scum and I don't know which so we should work on convincing hzflank who I am almost certain is town.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:51 GMT
#1280
On June 29 2013 01:46 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 01:36 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:33 WaveofShadow wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:28 FirmTofu wrote:
Does the nosy neighbor know who he visits at night?

I have to confirm but as far as I know he does NOT know who he visits at night. 'Aware of this behaviour' means simply that he knows he is a nosy neighbour.

Just as I suspected. Your thoughts, hzflank?


This doesnt change much, if he is NN it still means he was the only one who could have visited him. But we need to hear fromHurricane first.

It explains Hurricane's behavior and why he couldn't trust you. It establishes Hurricane as town and not the mafia framer, which hzflank was worried about.

If Hurricane isn't mafia, then there are very few people left that could possibly be on a potential Alakaslam's scum team.

1) Obviously, someone on Alakaslam's scum team wouldn't be voting for Alakaslam at this point, so we can eliminate anyone doing that.

Remaining Options:
FirmTofu
StiMaDDict
LoneMeow

I know I am town and I think hzflank agrees, so hzflank would have to say that both StiM and LoneMeow are scum in this scenario. This doesn't seem very likely from my point of view.

I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:52 GMT
#1282
On June 29 2013 01:51 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 01:46 Onegu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:36 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:33 WaveofShadow wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:28 FirmTofu wrote:
Does the nosy neighbor know who he visits at night?

I have to confirm but as far as I know he does NOT know who he visits at night. 'Aware of this behaviour' means simply that he knows he is a nosy neighbour.

Just as I suspected. Your thoughts, hzflank?


This doesnt change much, if he is NN it still means he was the only one who could have visited him. But we need to hear fromHurricane first.

It explains Hurricane's behavior and why he couldn't trust you. It establishes Hurricane as town and not the mafia framer, which hzflank was worried about.

If Hurricane isn't mafia, then there are very few people left that could possibly be on a potential Alakaslam's scum team.

1) Obviously, someone on Alakaslam's scum team wouldn't be voting for Alakaslam at this point, so we can eliminate anyone doing that.

Remaining Options:
FirmTofu
StiMaDDict
LoneMeow

I know I am town and I think hzflank agrees, so hzflank would have to say that both StiM and LoneMeow are scum in this scenario. This doesn't seem very likely from my point of view.


EBWOP: If you subscribe to the belief that Hurricane AND FirmTofu are town but Alakaslam is mafia, then you must believe that StiM and LoneMeow are scum as well.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:53 GMT
#1283
On June 29 2013 01:51 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 01:44 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:39 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:33 Alakaslam wrote:
I will be lynched. Oh and how did I know? GG, I have bamcis goodbye post comin

If Hurricane votes Onegu again or if hzflank switches his vote back to Onegu, you won't be lynched. Calm down and try to make a case for yourself. Panicking isn't going to help you.

Actually Hurricane is already on it, so we are gonna need to convince hzflank, StiM, or LoneMeow

Unfortunately, between StiM and LoneMeow, there is probably 1 scum and I don't know which so we should work on convincing hzflank who I am almost certain is town.


You think that I have the deciding vote? Fair enough.

##Unvote

Scum, get on board and defend your team mate, because I am not placing my vote until the last second.

Thank you. I think you have made the right decision.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 16:59 GMT
#1286
On June 29 2013 01:58 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 01:53 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:51 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:44 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:39 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:33 Alakaslam wrote:
I will be lynched. Oh and how did I know? GG, I have bamcis goodbye post comin

If Hurricane votes Onegu again or if hzflank switches his vote back to Onegu, you won't be lynched. Calm down and try to make a case for yourself. Panicking isn't going to help you.

Actually Hurricane is already on it, so we are gonna need to convince hzflank, StiM, or LoneMeow

Unfortunately, between StiM and LoneMeow, there is probably 1 scum and I don't know which so we should work on convincing hzflank who I am almost certain is town.


You think that I have the deciding vote? Fair enough.

##Unvote

Scum, get on board and defend your team mate, because I am not placing my vote until the last second.

Thank you. I think you have made the right decision.


I have not yet made a decision. I have made what I believe is the best play at this time. I cannot make a decision until we hear from Hurricane, Lone and Stim. I do not want my vote to influence their play.

I will make my decision once they have made theirs.

No, I meant that the decision to unvote and only vote at the last minute was the right decision.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 17:22 GMT
#1290
On June 29 2013 02:16 Alakaslam wrote:
What case do I make?

I call again to my initial reaction. Does that seem like a fabricated scenario? I was totally thinking I was agreeing with Onegu, not contradicting him. I was even laughing about green not keeping his eyes off pink!


And then what. My slow realization that I was starting a much bigger event...

Please explain how my reaction looks calculated at all.

Because its not, and it's OMGiS again. At least it may turn out well.

Yeah, your reaction SCREAMS town to me. I cannot imagine that a mafia team planned to make you counterclaim and wanted you to deliberately appear flustered.

Scum team would want you to appear confident so people would believe you, if anything.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 17:25 GMT
#1292
On June 29 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 01:16 FirmTofu wrote:
Last night, the mafia tracker Onegu visited Hurricane.
Onegu learned that Hurricane visited Alakaslam.

This scenario is compatible with Alakaslam's claim that he tracked Onegu who visited Hurricane.

Today, Onegu was being pressured hard and wanted to get the pressure off of himself. He decided that the best way would be to claim watcher and say he watched Alakaslam and have his "strongest town read" confirm him.

The problem was that Hurricane is the Nosy Neighbor and didn't actually know where he went. That's why Hurricane came into the thread accusing Onegu, not Alakaslam.

This establishes that 1) Onegu did not make a bad move as scum. Risky? Sure. Bad? No.
2) Hurricane is innocent.

For all those who vote Alakaslam, you must ask yourselves who the other two mafias are. StiM and LoneMeow is a cop out answer.

Look at how fast the Alakaslam wagon is rising. I guaruntee that all or most of scum are already on it.


Then with this why didnt I claim tracker? Why watcher? With your theory If I claim I tracked hurricane to Alakaslam wouldnt that be the best course of action with no risk?

Because claiming tracker would get people to immediately consider the possibility that you are the mafia tracker not the town's tracker.

Both claims have equal risk until you realize that claiming watcher is smarter because no one can say that you are actually a mafia watcher.

I don't know why I'm telling you this because you have already thought all of this through.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 17:33 GMT
#1296
On June 29 2013 02:31 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:16 FirmTofu wrote:
Last night, the mafia tracker Onegu visited Hurricane.
Onegu learned that Hurricane visited Alakaslam.

This scenario is compatible with Alakaslam's claim that he tracked Onegu who visited Hurricane.

Today, Onegu was being pressured hard and wanted to get the pressure off of himself. He decided that the best way would be to claim watcher and say he watched Alakaslam and have his "strongest town read" confirm him.

The problem was that Hurricane is the Nosy Neighbor and didn't actually know where he went. That's why Hurricane came into the thread accusing Onegu, not Alakaslam.

This establishes that 1) Onegu did not make a bad move as scum. Risky? Sure. Bad? No.
2) Hurricane is innocent.

For all those who vote Alakaslam, you must ask yourselves who the other two mafias are. StiM and LoneMeow is a cop out answer.

Look at how fast the Alakaslam wagon is rising. I guaruntee that all or most of scum are already on it.


Then with this why didnt I claim tracker? Why watcher? With your theory If I claim I tracked hurricane to Alakaslam wouldnt that be the best course of action with no risk?


Also with your case for what reason would scum track hurricane?

To see if he was blue. To try and decide whether he would be a good target for the following night.
I mean, you are scum, so you tell me.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 17:36 GMT
#1298
On June 29 2013 02:31 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:16 FirmTofu wrote:
Last night, the mafia tracker Onegu visited Hurricane.
Onegu learned that Hurricane visited Alakaslam.

This scenario is compatible with Alakaslam's claim that he tracked Onegu who visited Hurricane.

Today, Onegu was being pressured hard and wanted to get the pressure off of himself. He decided that the best way would be to claim watcher and say he watched Alakaslam and have his "strongest town read" confirm him.

The problem was that Hurricane is the Nosy Neighbor and didn't actually know where he went. That's why Hurricane came into the thread accusing Onegu, not Alakaslam.

This establishes that 1) Onegu did not make a bad move as scum. Risky? Sure. Bad? No.
2) Hurricane is innocent.

For all those who vote Alakaslam, you must ask yourselves who the other two mafias are. StiM and LoneMeow is a cop out answer.

Look at how fast the Alakaslam wagon is rising. I guaruntee that all or most of scum are already on it.


Then with this why didnt I claim tracker? Why watcher? With your theory If I claim I tracked hurricane to Alakaslam wouldnt that be the best course of action with no risk?


Also with your case for what reason would scum track hurricane?

Scum would track hurricane to check whether he was a blue role or not. Perhaps they want to know if he would be a good target for the following night. You are scum, so you tell me.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 17:36 GMT
#1299
Oh, my first post went through. Ignore that last one.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 17:37 GMT
#1301
On June 29 2013 02:34 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 02:33 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 02:31 Onegu wrote:
On June 29 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:16 FirmTofu wrote:
Last night, the mafia tracker Onegu visited Hurricane.
Onegu learned that Hurricane visited Alakaslam.

This scenario is compatible with Alakaslam's claim that he tracked Onegu who visited Hurricane.

Today, Onegu was being pressured hard and wanted to get the pressure off of himself. He decided that the best way would be to claim watcher and say he watched Alakaslam and have his "strongest town read" confirm him.

The problem was that Hurricane is the Nosy Neighbor and didn't actually know where he went. That's why Hurricane came into the thread accusing Onegu, not Alakaslam.

This establishes that 1) Onegu did not make a bad move as scum. Risky? Sure. Bad? No.
2) Hurricane is innocent.

For all those who vote Alakaslam, you must ask yourselves who the other two mafias are. StiM and LoneMeow is a cop out answer.

Look at how fast the Alakaslam wagon is rising. I guaruntee that all or most of scum are already on it.


Then with this why didnt I claim tracker? Why watcher? With your theory If I claim I tracked hurricane to Alakaslam wouldnt that be the best course of action with no risk?


Also with your case for what reason would scum track hurricane?

To see if he was blue. To try and decide whether he would be a good target for the following night.
I mean, you are scum, so you tell me.


I am not scum and you brought up the point in your theory, so it was a fair question.

Yeah, it's fair. I wasn't denying that.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 17:54 GMT
#1307
We don't need Hurricane to confirm unless it is critical to convincing hzflank/StiM/LoneMeow to vote for Onegu.
First one of those 3 people has to state that Hurricane's role will decide their vote, and then Hurricane can decide whether it is worth it to claim.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 18:22 GMT
#1314
I really wish StiM and LoneMeow would be more active. Whichever one of them is town may singlehandedly lose the game for town.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 18:33 GMT
#1322
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.

Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.

Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 18:38 GMT
#1326
On June 29 2013 03:36 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.

Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.

Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia.


I have, haven't you? If we get a alakaslam mislynch, do you not see two immediate Mafia lynches lined up?

I do.

I am asking what you think the mafia team is if Alakaslam is mafia.

Do you think I am mafia if Alakaslam is mafia? If not, who is?
I am assuming StiM, but who else?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 18:43 GMT
#1328
On June 29 2013 03:41 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Ironically, Alakaslam flipping as Mafia gives me the LEAST amount of information regarding endgame scenarios. As far as shaping reads, we'd get the most info from a successful Onegu scum lynch, then roughly equivalent useful information from an Onegu mislynch or a 'Slam mislynch. Lastly, we'd get the least information (but still some) from a successful 'Slam scum lynch.

This is exactly my point. If this is your position, then why is your vote currently on Alakaslam? Your actions aren't matching up with your words.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 18:44 GMT
#1329
You just stated that this is the order of most information to least information gained:

Onegu Scum Lynch
Onegu Mislynch=Alakaslam Mislynch
Alakaslam Scum Lynch

Clearly lynching Onegu gives us more information than Alakaslam, therefore it is the optimal decision.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 18:51 GMT
#1334
On June 29 2013 03:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
2. The information we'd gain from an Onegu mislynch is inconsistent with the rest of the game.

If you truly believe 2. is true, wouldn't you also have to agree that the Onegu mislynch is unlikely BECAUSE it is inconsistent with the rest of the game?

I think the problem is that we see the same issue with the Onegu mislynch, but I attribute it to the fact the Onegu is scum and you are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is town because of it.

Of course, you can see it both ways, but I would say that these two scenarios are equally likely and thus should cancel out. You cannot say this inconsistency makes Onegu more likely to be town.

I ask you again. If Alakaslam is mafia, who constitutes the rest of his team? What are your reads?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:01 GMT
#1340
On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.

Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.

Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia.


Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past.


I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia.

This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days.

If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day.
If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day.

Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effectno matter which one flips mafia.

Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim.

Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach).
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:05 GMT
#1344
@Hurricane
Could you maybe take a look at Alakaslam's initial claim and analyze whether his motives are coming from a town's perspective or not?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:08 GMT
#1347
On June 29 2013 04:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.

Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.

Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia.


Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past.


I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia.

This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days.

If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day.
If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day.

Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effectno matter which one flips mafia.

Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim.

Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach).


I figured it out. You want to buy a lottery ticket. I want to buy house insurance.

I just don't think the likelihood of a fire is very high, and the odds of winning the lottery are 50/50.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:09 GMT
#1349
On June 29 2013 04:08 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim.

Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach).


Your assuming he did this with the other's consent. As you pointed out right after, he acts independently.

Why would he act independently if he had a mafia team, though?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:17 GMT
#1354
On June 29 2013 04:14 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 04:08 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:
On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.

Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.

Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia.


Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past.


I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia.

This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days.

If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day.
If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day.

Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effectno matter which one flips mafia.

Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim.

Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach).


I figured it out. You want to buy a lottery ticket. I want to buy house insurance.

I just don't think the likelihood of a fire is very high, and the odds of winning the lottery are 50/50.


But if your lottery ticket is a bust, we're left with nothing. At least with insurance, we can throw a bitchin' fireworks party.

Let's just avoid cooking in the damn house, GOD DAMN IT!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:22 GMT
#1360
I believe the lynch on Alakaslam already has majority. I am helpless. I have tried to convince everyone that we are making a mistake, but no one seems to agree.

Hurricane makes some good points, but they are dependent on the belief that Alakaslam has no obvious scumbuddies. I completely disagree, so I do not share Hurricane's view.

Aquanim seems like he is just choosing to lynch Alakaslam because he has a strong town read on Onegu. We will see if this read is justified soon enough.

Everyone else on the Alakaslam wagon screams scum to me for numerous reasons I have pointed out before.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:25 GMT
#1363
Moving forward, I would like to chart the course for town following an Alakaslam mislynch. Shall we get started?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:27 GMT
#1366
On June 29 2013 04:25 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 04:22 FirmTofu wrote:
I believe the lynch on Alakaslam already has majority. I am helpless. I have tried to convince everyone that we are making a mistake, but no one seems to agree.

Hurricane makes some good points, but they are dependent on the belief that Alakaslam has no obvious scumbuddies. I completely disagree, so I do not share Hurricane's view.


Aquanim seems like he is just choosing to lynch Alakaslam because he has a strong town read on Onegu. We will see if this read is justified soon enough.

Everyone else on the Alakaslam wagon screams scum to me for numerous reasons I have pointed out before.


Are you saying that you do see obvious scumbuddies for Alakaslam?

If so, doesn't this make you more comfortable with a 'Slam lynch?

I could ask you the same of an Onegu lynch.

I see obvious scumbuddies for BOTH lynches. I believe that Onegu is more likely to flip scum based upon Alakaslam's initial claim and various scummy characteristics of Onegu.

Thus, I believe Onegu is the better lynch for today.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:28 GMT
#1367
On June 29 2013 04:26 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 04:25 FirmTofu wrote:
Moving forward, I would like to chart the course for town following an Alakaslam mislynch. Shall we get started?


Soon, but not now. I want to see the mafia do the Scum Vote Shuffle for a bit. Our night time is long, and our actions simple. It will not take much time to plot our course forward.

Okay, I see your point. I will hold off on that for now.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:30 GMT
#1368
On June 29 2013 04:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 04:22 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:21 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
EBWOP: Not the jokes. The jokes are good, I laughed hz/tofu. The debate over who is more guilty (slam / onegu) seems dumb. I can't imagine that anyone has some crucial point they've yet to contribute to this issue, so theoretically everyone has formed an opinion at this time. Now is the time to plan for our future as a Town.


There is still the Stim Factor.


Would you call me crazy if I had a keen eye on a StiM modkill tonight?

Wouldn't we be in a LYLO situation if StiM and Alakaslam both flipped town?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:30 GMT
#1370
On June 29 2013 04:30 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 04:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:22 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:21 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
EBWOP: Not the jokes. The jokes are good, I laughed hz/tofu. The debate over who is more guilty (slam / onegu) seems dumb. I can't imagine that anyone has some crucial point they've yet to contribute to this issue, so theoretically everyone has formed an opinion at this time. Now is the time to plan for our future as a Town.


There is still the Stim Factor.


Would you call me crazy if I had a keen eye on a StiM modkill tonight?

Wouldn't we be in a LYLO situation if StiM and Alakaslam both flipped town?

Actually we would lose because Mafia would kill a town member.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:31 GMT
#1372
That's quite a depressing thought.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:35 GMT
#1375
On June 29 2013 04:32 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 04:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:22 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:21 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
EBWOP: Not the jokes. The jokes are good, I laughed hz/tofu. The debate over who is more guilty (slam / onegu) seems dumb. I can't imagine that anyone has some crucial point they've yet to contribute to this issue, so theoretically everyone has formed an opinion at this time. Now is the time to plan for our future as a Town.


There is still the Stim Factor.


Would you call me crazy if I had a keen eye on a StiM modkill tonight?


Do you think I should base my play around that?

Even though I think basing your play around that would benefit my case, I do NOT think you should base your play around it.

Modkills should not be an active component of the game and we shouldn't change our play in anticipation of one, IMHO.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:42 GMT
#1377
On June 29 2013 04:38 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 04:35 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:32 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:22 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 04:21 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
EBWOP: Not the jokes. The jokes are good, I laughed hz/tofu. The debate over who is more guilty (slam / onegu) seems dumb. I can't imagine that anyone has some crucial point they've yet to contribute to this issue, so theoretically everyone has formed an opinion at this time. Now is the time to plan for our future as a Town.


There is still the Stim Factor.


Would you call me crazy if I had a keen eye on a StiM modkill tonight?


Do you think I should base my play around that?

Even though I think basing your play around that would benefit my case, I do NOT think you should base your play around it.

Modkills should not be an active component of the game and we shouldn't change our play in anticipation of one, IMHO.


This. The spirit of the game is to assume active participation. StiM's M.O. is to swoop in at the last second anyway. I only mentioned the modkill as a possibility to mentally prepare people, not to seriously gameplan around it. I think he will post, he will vote, and he will continue to be less than helpful.

His vote will also tell us little about his alignment if Alakaslam flips scum now that we have majority and his vote doesn't really matter.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:43 GMT
#1378
Now I have to cross my fingers and hope every read I have ever made this entire game is wrong.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 19:53 GMT
#1382
On June 29 2013 04:49 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Public Service Announcement:

Reminder to all Town: a mislynch is not the end of the world here. It's important that we to follow through on this plan and not fall into despair or go rage afk. A mislynch is a real possibility, but if 'Slam does flip town, we have a lot of clear evidence (and the names of two mafia members) to actually help us make up ground. Lynching those two will get us to the endgame with a nice 2-on-1 shot of winning this thing.

Don't tell me who your reads are, but if Alakaslam flips town, do you have 2 or 3 reads that you are nearly certain will flip scum?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 28 2013 20:04 GMT
#1386
I would also like to say that all town members should bounce their actions and reads off a town coach. I've found it pretty helpful personally and I think many of you could benefit as well.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:25 GMT
#1413
Hey guys, made it back before the lynch. Let me know if you need anything from me.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:35 GMT
#1421
StiM, you have to vote in 25 minutes or I think you get modkilled.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:39 GMT
#1427
On June 29 2013 10:37 StiMaDDict wrote:
Then I don't see why Onegu would claim..
I know you had a scum read on me and if I remember correctly FirmTofu was on Onegu..

This is actually a really important question to answer. His claim makes no sense from a town perspective at all, but he could potentially have made a mistake as scum because he was afraid of getting lynched and he thought Hurricane could vouch for him.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:39 GMT
#1430
On June 29 2013 10:38 hzflank wrote:
Correct me if I am wrong here:

Alakaslam flips red then:

Onegu is town
LoneMeow is town
Aquanim is town
Spicy is town
Hurricane is town

This is presumed, but not 100% yes.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:42 GMT
#1436
On June 29 2013 10:39 StiMaDDict wrote:
FirmTofu, what do you make of Alak? I know that you believed Onegu was a scum since the end of Day1.

Alak is a 75% town read right now for me. My reasoning is that

1) I had a pre-flip scum read on Onegu (See my case)
2) Alakaslam and Onegu CANNOT be the same alignment.
3) Alakaslam seems to be acting independently of any potential mafia team, which is odd.
4) Alakaslam's claim would be extremely silly to make if he was scum. It unnecessarily places him directly in the spotlight and increases his chances of being lynched to 50% automatically.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:44 GMT
#1442
hzflank, are you going to switch your vote or keep it on yourself?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:47 GMT
#1448
If Hurricane switches his vote, Onegu is lynched. Hurricane is the deciding vote.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:48 GMT
#1451
On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu

Wrong format, hzflank. Host will probably still accept it, but just saying.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:50 GMT
#1456
I disagree with your Alakaslam mislynch prediction. I think it would be
SpicyDinosaur
LoneMeow
Onegu
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:53 GMT
#1462
It's funny that Hurricane considers Aqua scum in 3 of the 4 scenarios.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:54 GMT
#1464
On June 29 2013 10:54 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 10:53 FirmTofu wrote:
It's funny that Hurricane considers Aqua scum in 3 of the 4 scenarios.


I think Hurricane is wrong in at least one of those 3.

Agreed.

@Hurricane
You have 6 minutes to change your vote, if you are considering it.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:00 GMT
#1471
On June 29 2013 11:00 jrkirby wrote:

Shut up I don't like you.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:01 GMT
#1473
Is it the town green ranger or the Mafia green ranger?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:02 GMT
#1477
Well, I don't want to say I told you so, but I told you so.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:03 GMT
#1480
On June 29 2013 11:01 jrkirby wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 11:00 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 11:00 jrkirby wrote:

Shut up I don't like you.

You know what I'm having with my popcorn? That's right, firm tofu. Delicious.

You get to watch us fight each other while we have to do all the dirty work.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:04 GMT
#1482
No matter what, tomorrow we lynch Onegu. The question is, who do we lynch the following day?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:05 GMT
#1487
On June 29 2013 11:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Well played, Aqua. Too bad you and Onegu had to die now for that.

A mislynch always sucks, but Slam was radio silent this whole time. He mentioned himself he was mentally checked out of this game, so as long as the rest of town stays motivated going forward, we'll win this.

No. I am not going to vote Aquanim unless you make an extraordinary case against him. Spicy is my top read for too many reasons to count. We should be lynching him after Onegu.

I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:06 GMT
#1489
@Aquanim

I want your new reads. Please explain why as well.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:08 GMT
#1491
On June 29 2013 11:00 geript wrote:
Busy Votecount (without the picture)
[image loading]

Onegu (2): Hurricane Sponge, FirmTofu, Alakaslam, Hurricane Sponge, hzflank, hzflank
StiMaDDict (0): Aquanim, hzflank,
FirmTofu (0): Onegu
Alakaslam (5): LoneMeow, Aquanim, Onegu, hzflank,Spicydinosaur, Hurricane Sponge, LoneMeow
hzflank (1): hzflank
Not Voting:
StiMaDDict


[b][blue] Alakaslam the Green Ranger -- Tracker has been lynched
Action Deadline for Night 2 is in [unparsable timestamp format]
[blue]Night 2 ends in [unparsable timestamp format]

My dear illustrious host, Onegu's vote count should have me, Alakaslam, hzflank, and StiM. That's 4 people.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:15 GMT
#1496
On June 29 2013 11:14 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 11:05 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 11:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Well played, Aqua. Too bad you and Onegu had to die now for that.

A mislynch always sucks, but Slam was radio silent this whole time. He mentioned himself he was mentally checked out of this game, so as long as the rest of town stays motivated going forward, we'll win this.

No. I am not going to vote Aquanim unless you make an extraordinary case against him. Spicy is my top read for too many reasons to count. We should be lynching him after Onegu.



If town doesn't vote unanimously, mafia get to choose the lynch target.

Then let's get everyone's reads now and narrow down the list of possible candidates.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:16 GMT
#1498
On June 29 2013 11:15 StiMaDDict wrote:
I guess I'm going to be lazy again now..

No. You don't get to be lazy. You are going to help us find out who the mafia is. If you are town, you need to stop playing terribly.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:18 GMT
#1500
On June 29 2013 11:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 11:10 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 11:06 FirmTofu wrote:
@Aquanim

I want your new reads. Please explain why as well.

I'll have to think about association with Onegu and that might take a while, but for now this is where I'm at:

Spicy: didn't commit hard to either lynch today. Still got no reasons to think he's town. Nothing much has really changed about Spicy since my read at the end of Night 1.

StiMaDDict: still hasn't done jack

LoneMeow: hasn't done much of anything, and vote for Alakaslam now doesn't look real good.

Still pretty sure everyone else (besides Onegu, obviously) is town but I suppose I'd better take another look at everyone to be sure.


StiM cast a crucial vote against Onegu.

If you're still suspecting him, you're obviously not analyzing from a pro-town perspective.

That's not true at all, Hurricane. StiM vote was far from crucial. Everyone on the Alakaslam wagon already had their mind set on the mislynch, there was no way anyone was going to switch. StiM's vote changed nothing. If anything hzflank was the crucial vote because he brought it to 5-4 where if you voted Onegu, the flip would have changed hands.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:19 GMT
#1502
On June 29 2013 11:17 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 11:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 29 2013 11:10 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 11:06 FirmTofu wrote:
@Aquanim

I want your new reads. Please explain why as well.

I'll have to think about association with Onegu and that might take a while, but for now this is where I'm at:

Spicy: didn't commit hard to either lynch today. Still got no reasons to think he's town. Nothing much has really changed about Spicy since my read at the end of Night 1.

StiMaDDict: still hasn't done jack

LoneMeow: hasn't done much of anything, and vote for Alakaslam now doesn't look real good.

Still pretty sure everyone else (besides Onegu, obviously) is town but I suppose I'd better take another look at everyone to be sure.


StiM cast a crucial vote against Onegu.

If you're still suspecting him, you're obviously not analyzing from a pro-town perspective.


Exactly. When I dropped that 4th vote on Onegu I was half-expecting Aqua or Hurricane to drop the hammer. Stim could not of know that they would not do this. Stim is likely town.

I think that is extremely presumptuous. Read my previous post.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:20 GMT
#1504
On June 29 2013 11:18 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 11:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 29 2013 11:10 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 11:06 FirmTofu wrote:
@Aquanim

I want your new reads. Please explain why as well.

I'll have to think about association with Onegu and that might take a while, but for now this is where I'm at:

Spicy: didn't commit hard to either lynch today. Still got no reasons to think he's town. Nothing much has really changed about Spicy since my read at the end of Night 1.

StiMaDDict: still hasn't done jack

LoneMeow: hasn't done much of anything, and vote for Alakaslam now doesn't look real good.

Still pretty sure everyone else (besides Onegu, obviously) is town but I suppose I'd better take another look at everyone to be sure.


StiM cast a crucial vote against Onegu.

If you're still suspecting him, you're obviously not analyzing from a pro-town perspective.

When StiM voted Onegu, he was still two voteswitches away from being lynched, which at that time looked pretty unlikely.

It's a point in StiM's favour but not a conclusive one.

This is the correct takeaway from StiM's behavior.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:22 GMT
#1507
On June 29 2013 11:19 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
If the remaining townies don't see that Aqua is scum, we deserve to lose. (Not that we already don't deserve to lose with the quality posting content of StiM, Xzavier and Alakaslam on our side...)

The mafia play here is to kill me tonight (since I'm probably the only one who can convince Tofu of anything at this point), resulting in a split vote on Day 4 and a mafia win.

You need to explain to me why you think Aqua is more likely to be scum than Spicy. Spicy has been the most obvious scumbuddy of Onegu all game long. They have not butted heads once and even formed a case against me together.

I am as certain Spicy is scum as I was that Onegu was mafia an hour ago.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:47 GMT
#1531
On June 29 2013 11:28 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Every time mafia need a whipping boy, they pull out StiM. Onegu did it early, Aqua did it late.

It doesn't matter, I'm never going to win a tunnel battle with you, Tofu. You are the tunnel king and I'm ready to just start throwing haymakers. I feel like I've said everything there is to say, the game is solved, and I'm probably going to die tonight anyway, so I don't have a vote left in this game.

The scum team is Onegu, Aqua and LoneMeow (or Spicy, I haven't looked that far ahead yet).

I haven't said it yet because I didn't want to get into an argument, but I would like to say this now.

I have not tunneled anyone without considering the cases for other people and weighing them against my own.
I would like to think I am a rational person and am always willing to change my vote when presented with superior evidence. What is happening now is you are tunneling Aqua based on little evidence. If you expect me to agree with you, you not only have to make a better case for him, you also need to explain why the case against Spicy isn't a better one.

I am always willing to change my vote. I trust you as town more than anyone in this game, so trust me when I say this. I take your input into great consideration, I just strongly believe you are behaving irrationally. I think your ego may have taken a hit at this flip, and is causing you to behave this way.

Please clear your mind, present a case if you have to, and stop using this defeatist attitude of, "FirmTofu will never change his mind so we lose."

I urge you to first look at the situation from an unbiased point of view. Instead of looking for reasons why Aquanim is scum, try looking for reasons why everyone could be scum. Then, analyze each person's collective list of scummy behaviors and make a list of those you believe to be most scummy.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 02:56 GMT
#1540
Hurricane. Please consolidate your posts. It is extremely hard to read everything seperately and it would be nice to be able to refer to all your points on Aquanim at one post. This is extremely inconvenient.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 03:13 GMT
#1548
@Hurricane
Again, I request you consolidate your posts. I agree with many of your points. At this moment, I am willing to vote LoneMeow 2 days from now, but I am still not convinced about Aquanim over Spicy.

Explain to me Onegu's day 1 behavior voting for Aquanim. That is what is most striking to me and is a big part of why I think Aquanim is town.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 03:20 GMT
#1553
On June 29 2013 12:13 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow. The pieces are all there.

Does someone want to clue me in as to why Spicy is a suspect?

Instead of me making a case for Spicy, I want you to make one first. This will greatly help us as a team because I trust you and you trust me as sincere town. We can bounce ideas off of each other without having to suspect one another's motives.

I want you to find everything that you think makes Spicy scummy and anything that makes you think Spicy is town. Please don't look at this exercise through "I've got to convince everyone that Aquanim is mafia" glasses. I want you to analyze Spicy from an unbiased point of view and give me your thoughts about him, good or bad.

Try not to convince me one way or the other, just try to present each individual point and explain why you feel a certain way about it.

I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 03:22 GMT
#1554
On June 29 2013 12:20 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 12:13 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow. The pieces are all there.

Does someone want to clue me in as to why Spicy is a suspect?

Instead of me making a case for Spicy, I want you to make one first. This will greatly help us as a team because I trust you and you trust me as sincere town. We can bounce ideas off of each other without having to suspect one another's motives.

I want you to find everything that you think makes Spicy scummy and anything that makes you think Spicy is town. Please don't look at this exercise through "I've got to convince everyone that Aquanim is mafia" glasses. I want you to analyze Spicy from an unbiased point of view and give me your thoughts about him, good or bad.

Try not to convince me one way or the other, just try to present each individual point and explain why you feel a certain way about it.


That said, I will work on a case on Spicy concurrently and we can see if our reads on him match in any way. I will also go through Aquanim's filter and revisit all your points regarding him.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 03:23 GMT
#1556
@hzflank
Can you go through Aquanim's and Spicy's filter as well and give me your thoughts on both of them?

@Everyone else
Please state your top three scum reads at this juncture.
*hint hint* Onegu should be on that list.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 03:32 GMT
#1561
On June 29 2013 12:23 hzflank wrote:
Firm, please tell me what you think of my above point on Aqua.

I honestly think that is the first good scum read I have made all day. it is not fluffy. I think he made a mistake when he posted that because a town Aqua would not of thought like that.

I'm having trouble understanding it as well. I am going to go through Aqua's filter and search for some context. Don't bother to try and explain it to me. I want to draw my own conclusions and then see what other people think.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 03:40 GMT
#1564
On June 29 2013 12:37 hzflank wrote:
If you actually believed what (you claim is) is the scum team's motivation for a fake-counter-claim is, and you had played out end game scenarios (which you obviously had in that very post) then your vote would of voted for Onegu.

This is because by playing out your end game scenarios you would know that if we mislynch Alakaslam while you are on the wrong wagon, then we end up in the exact same end game scenario that you claim we must avoid.

Therefore, you did not believe in the reason that you gave for the motivation behind the scum's fake claim.

Are you talking to Aquanim in this post?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 07:41 GMT
#1580
Aquanim. Read carefully. I think I have figured out the best way to exonerate yourself.

Pick your strongest scum read(other than Onegu) and make the best possible case you can for their lynch instead of yours.
If you do this, I will definitely be able to ascertain your alignment. If you refuse to do this, I will peg you as mafia and you will likely be lynched after Onegu.


I have thought about this a lot and this is the best possible play I could come up with. I will post my case on various people after you follow through.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 09:06 GMT
#1582
On June 29 2013 17:40 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 16:41 FirmTofu wrote:
Aquanim. Read carefully. I think I have figured out the best way to exonerate yourself.

Pick your strongest scum read(other than Onegu) and make the best possible case you can for their lynch instead of yours.
If you do this, I will definitely be able to ascertain your alignment. If you refuse to do this, I will peg you as mafia and you will likely be lynched after Onegu.


I have thought about this a lot and this is the best possible play I could come up with. I will post my case on various people after you follow through.

Okay, I can do that. If you want my best possible case, it will take some time though. I intend to post it at the start of the one-hour night action resolution phase, unless you have some objection.

Not that late. We'll need some time to discuss it before I die tonight. I'll ask Hurricane and the others when they're available and we can set a deadline for you. You should probably get started ASAP and have it ready to post at any time 5 hours before night ends.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 09:09 GMT
#1583
Spicy, I would like to extend the same courtesy to you. Please make a strong case on your best scum read so that we may ascertain your alignment. Tell us why we should vote for him instead of you. If you do not do this, you will be the default lynch after Onegu dies.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 15:26 GMT
#1592
Spicy, I asked for something very specific. I wanted your case on ONE player. Please do this. Explain why that one player is scum. Convince me of it.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 15:33 GMT
#1594
On June 30 2013 00:25 Aquanim wrote:
@LoneMeow and StiMaDDict: I think it would be a good idea for both of you to tell us who your main suspect is as well.

This is what we need to see next.
@LoneMeow and StiM
You both need to make a case for ONE top scum read and convince us that he is mafia. You may give us what you think the rest of the mafia team is, but the necessary input is a good case on one read.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 15:49 GMT
#1596
On June 30 2013 00:42 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 00:26 FirmTofu wrote:
Spicy, I asked for something very specific. I wanted your case on ONE player. Please do this. Explain why that one player is scum. Convince me of it.


You are already convinced im scum so theres no way im convincing u. My biggest scum read is on stim. Ilk post why in a separate post since Im posting from my phone.

That's not true. You can convince me of anything, trust me. I look forward to your case on StiM.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 15:59 GMT
#1598
On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.

d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.

Okay, thanks!

Hopefully, LoneMeow and StiM can pop in and give us their top scum reads as well. This is going well.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 17:25 GMT
#1613
@Hurricane
Please do not analyze the respective players who have posted their cases yet. We have still yet to hear from StiM and Meow; I would like to give them some time to respond.

In the meantime, look through Spicy's and Aqua's posts and give me your thoughts about them like you said you would.

It would also be very useful to consider Onegu's behaviors. Try to deduce who he is protecting and who is protecting him.

When you are finished compiling the posts about Aqua and Spicy respectively, tell me but do not post. We need to time everything perfectly. So far, I think we are doing well.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 17:28 GMT
#1614
On June 30 2013 02:25 FirmTofu wrote:
@Hurricane
Please do not analyze the respective players who have posted their cases yet. We have still yet to hear from StiM and Meow; I would like to give them some time to respond.

In the meantime, look through Spicy's and Aqua's posts and give me your thoughts about them like you said you would.

It would also be very useful to consider Onegu's behaviors. Try to deduce who he is protecting and who is protecting him.

When you are finished compiling the posts about Aqua and Spicy respectively, tell me but do not post. We need to time everything perfectly. So far, I think we are doing well.

EBWOP:
To clarify, I want you to analyze them but not post it publically as soon as you are finished.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 21:32 GMT
#1615
I am changing a lot of my opinions while reading the thread thoroughly. I currently believe that StiM will be the most optimal lynch after we lynch Onegu. I will provide my reasoning for why after scum submit their night actions. Please be patient.

@StiM and LoneMeow
Please post your case ASAP or we will be forced to lynch you. If you are running short on time, you can post an abbreviated version.

@Spicy
I am warming up to you a little bit. If you had to pick a mafia between LoneMeow and Aquanim, which one would be more likely to you?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 00:05 GMT
#1623
On June 30 2013 08:40 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 18:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote:

No one is disputing that Onegu acquired knowledge last night. By some means, he deduced something that likely happened. However, it is not just a Watcher that could have figured that out. Indeed, it is actually MORE LIKELY in this scenario for a Mafia Tracker or a Mafia Framer to figure it out!

A mafia Tracker could choose to 'track' a high-profile townie for various reasons
A mafia Framer would CERTAINLY choose to follow THE MOST HIGH PROFILE TOWNIE NOT BEING SHOT THAT NIGHT. (If you don't know why, we need to get you back to Mafia School. At the time actions were declared, the Parity Cop was alive. Mafia know that the Cop will check his scummiest read vs. his towniest read. The framer's play is to figure out who is most everyone's towniest read, barring the person who is getting shot that night, and pay them a visit, essentially flipping their alignment and throwing the Parity Cop off course.)

Both of these situations could explain how Onegu acquired the knowledge he did, and neither situation conflicts with Alakaslam's story.


If Onegu was a Framer, then Onegu would not know that Hurricane visited Alakaslam. The only way that Onegu could of known is if Onegu Framed Hurricane at the same time as another scum Tracked Hurricane. How likely is that?

The only other way for Onegu to know is if Hurricane is scum. Hurricane backed up Onegu's claim by saying that he did indeed visit Alakaslam. But he did it in a non-committal way which could be seen as an attempt to leave himself an out.

It's very unlikely that mafia have that many blues. If they do, we should expect to have a blue hiding within our ranks as well. At this point, if Hurricane is mafia, we have already lost. Luckily, I think the chance of that is extremely slim.

I think the non-committal way that Hurricane backed up Onegu's claim tells us exactly what Hurricane really is. I won't spell it out for you because it is irrelevant to what we need to focus on at this juncture.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 00:44 GMT
#1637
Hurricane, did you assemble a post of your thoughts on Spicy and Aquanim?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 00:52 GMT
#1640
On June 30 2013 09:48 hzflank wrote:
Sorry for spamming, I'm running a single monitor and watching MLG. This thread is good for inflating my post counter though

I am too!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:00 GMT
#1646
On June 30 2013 09:59 hzflank wrote:
Deadline has passed?

Yes.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:02 GMT
#1647
On June 30 2013 09:55 hzflank wrote:
No point in looking too much into a link between Aqua and Lone until we know one of their alignments. it is not needed.

This is the right answer. First we lynch Onegu. Then, we deduce possible alignments. Until then, we can only speculate.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:02 GMT
#1648
hzflank, I would like to see whatever you said you wanted to say.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:07 GMT
#1652
On June 30 2013 10:05 hzflank wrote:
Don't worry Onegu's gone day 3, 8-1 vote count.

Oh btw, Hurricane wont die.

If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight.

Hurricane is either lynched Day 4, or killed Night 4, and in a few minutes I will tell you why...

(I love me some conspiracy, it seems)

Don't tease me you bastard!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:08 GMT
#1654
We have less than an hour and I have important information to reveal as well. I would prefer if you would be expedient about telling us what exactly you mean, hzflank.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:17 GMT
#1659
lol hzflank you got my hopes up and now I'm sad. Mega post incoming.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:17 GMT
#1660
Why I think Aquanim is town

On June 24 2013 13:36 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:
Quoted Player List for reference:
On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote:
The Players

  1. Hurricane Sponge
  2. Onegu
  3. Chromatically
  4. Xzavier
  5. StiMaDDict
  6. FirmTofu
  7. fyfy
  8. hzflank
  9. Alakaslam
  10. Aquanim
  11. Spicydinosaur
  12. LoneMeow


We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow.

You wound me.

Regarding claims
I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles.

The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum.

Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means.

No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.)

Regarding scum
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.

1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.

On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?

Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.

2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.

##Vote: Chromatically


As I have said before he provides a buffer to protect other blues, if there is a tracker for scum and it is likely and they know who nn is they can look to find other blue roles. Who cares if scum claim NN later we kill them anyway. If something wierd happens and the only explanation someone can give is I am NN we lynch them. All NN reveal does now is take away what little protection blues have.

The request to ask Nosy Neighbor to claim screams town to me. Mafia isn't going to want to make a first post that is begging for attention.
I would like to point out the immediate disconnect between Aquanim and Onegu right off the bat. Why would scum Onegu discredit their teammate immediately? It is important to note the distinction between discrediting someone and accusing someone. Discrediting your teammate decreases the weight of their opinion to town. This would be detrimental to the scum team in the long-run and I can see no good reason as to why they would want to do this.
Although Onegu does accuse Aquanim somewhat down the line, his act of discrediting him initially makes me believe that Onegu and Aquanim do not share the same alignment.
We see Onegu trying to discredit him again here, seemingly to establish town cred.
On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy.

This theory is further reinforced by the fact that Aquanim continues to push his belief that the NN should claim whenever someone disagrees with him about it. A scum Aquanim would likely back off to avoid attracting attention, but in this case, we see that he is adamant that the NN should claim no matter what.
On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe.

Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on:
1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it.
2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody.
Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these.

The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot.

Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him.

I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly.

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote:
On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy.


The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though.

My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please.


Here we see Aquanim reinforcing his fundamental beliefs with a very passive-aggressive response to my criticism to his suggestion to have the NN claim. This response was my first reason for pegging Aquanim as town. Scum would not expose themselves to this kind of risk. Scum at this point should not be trying to cause waves like this. They would be trying to develop friendships and alliances with town members.

On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote:
@FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically?

On June 24 2013 18:15 Aquanim wrote:
Also, @Hurricane, what is your best guess as to who's scum?


We all know that Chromatically liked to do a lot of these and he ended up flipping town. When I see Aquanim doing this, I get the feeling that he is town as well. More information about people's reads = More material to work with to make a case against people. It's very pro-town.

On June 24 2013 19:35 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 18:55 fyfy wrote:
I don't know why I'm being voted day 1 when I haven't posted anything yet, I'm sure this kind of behaviour is exactly what the scum wants us to do. I'm sorry if there's no meta on me cause this is my first game and I would like to have my first game where I am not dead the first day. I can honestly assure everyone that I am town and killing me is a bad idea.


EDIT: I know I sound scummy but I guess that's what you're all going to have :/

You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious.

I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours.

Again, we see Aqua's condescending tone shine through. Scum would not want to provoke people at this time, but town would want to provoke people they suspect of being mafia to make a mistake.

On June 24 2013 21:08 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:
Quoted Player List for reference:
On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote:
The Players

  1. Hurricane Sponge
  2. Onegu
  3. Chromatically
  4. Xzavier
  5. StiMaDDict
  6. FirmTofu
  7. fyfy
  8. hzflank
  9. Alakaslam
  10. Aquanim
  11. Spicydinosaur
  12. LoneMeow


We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow.

You wound me.

Regarding claims
I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles.

The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum.

Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means.

No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.)

Regarding scum
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.

1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.

On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:
On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone

Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.

What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?

Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.

2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.

##Vote: Chromatically

Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells.

Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it.

Oh, I don't have a problem with you starting the discussion - but the way in which you chose to do it made me feel uneasy. Calling somebody out for leaving for five minutes? Really? A very slight gut read was really all that ever boiled down to.

Show nested quote +

If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them?

Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason?

Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you.

Show nested quote +

You also said:
On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:

This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII.

Oh, this feels more like the scum Chromatic from XXXI?

No, it didn't feel like either of them, but I don't expect your scumgame to be the same as XXXI - you have learned a lot since then, I think.

Show nested quote +

I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and NNs.

I kept getting asked about and called scum over the NN stuff, I would really have preferred for that not to drag out the way it did.

tl;dr I had uneasy feelings about you but I feel a lot better after reading this post. My vote was fundamentally to draw reactions from you (to clarify my read) and other people, and to start some meaningful discussion (I don't think anything is accomplished in a thread until somebody's thrown down a vote).

Go find some scum.
##Unvote

Here we see Aquanim reasoning with himself and backing off from his accusation on Chromatically after Chromatically and I called him out on it. The important part about this post is that it seems like Aquanim is developing his thoughts about Chromatically as he writes about him. I take this to be evidence of a "stream of consciousness" type of thought process indicative of a town perspective. Town Aqua is unsure of Chromatically's alignment so when faced with an strong response, he backs off from his accusation that was initially based on a "gut feel". It got people talking and was overall very beneficial for town. I personally was able to establish both Chromatically and Aquanim as town from this argument.

(see bold) We can clearly see that this is a town-motivated poke. As I mentioned before, scum would not want to do these kinds of things and risk the wrath of a strong town member. Chromatically was arguably one of the most authoritative town members at the time and pushing his lynch would be irrational from a scum perspective.

On June 25 2013 13:43 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 13:36 Onegu wrote:
On June 25 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:

Him saying the bolded part really bothers me, it is a failsafe for him to later say his gut lead him to make votes without having to make cases behind it

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381931&currentpage=18#344
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911&currentpage=53#1045
Mate, are you in any way familiar with my meta? If I lead a wagon with serious intent to lynch somebody there WILL be a case.


The other big thing about him is he kept the NN thing going way to long almost half his posts deal with the NN, when it is a bad idea, what if the NN claims day one but scum counterclaims day 4 we still dont know who is who it only give scum an advantage and for him to harp on it over and over is scummy to me.

STILL this?
1) A difference of opinions on policy is not scum-indicative
2) If I knew that the NN claiming was obviously scum-favoured and that I had no chance to make it happen, why would I suggest it as town or scum? It would make me look bad either way.

Your reasons for voting me are all 12 hours old. It seems a very convenient time for you to bring those up now that there are a couple of other votes on me.

On June 25 2013 13:13 Xzavier wrote:
OMGUS more

Still pathetic. Make a real case or eat rope.

As I have said meta is useless in a noobie game as people are still figureing out thier playstyle and as I was about to sleep 12 hours ago and I just woke up I dont see how the timeing is wierd...

Meta in newbies is of limited usefulness, particularly for assessing scuminess directly - people's scumgames could change dramatically. However, if someone has demonstrated a capability for making cases/scumhunting/not being utterly useless/etc. there is no reason why that capability should disappear. I won't magically choose to start playing worse just for the sake of changing my playstyle.

I am making the point that I can and will make cases to justify my vote when necessary, which I can prove by citing previous games.

As far as I can tell, I've refuted both of the points which make up your case on me. Is there any reason your vote is still on me? If so, please share it.

(see bolded) This kind of smart-ass, "I'm way better than you so you're wrong" kind of talk further reinforces my town read on Aquanim. Why would he speak in this manner to his scumbuddy? They would need to have a healthy relationship in the scum QT and lots of communication to pull something like this off. I am skeptical that they would be able to do this.

Aquanim has already proved he talks like this to town (to me especially). If he talks the same way to scum, I can only imagine that he is not on the scum team.

On June 25 2013 16:48 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 16:45 Onegu wrote:
On June 25 2013 16:33 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 16:01 Onegu wrote:
On June 25 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote:
I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum.

##Vote: Aquanim

Can you explain this some more? What exactly about my play do you think is scum-motivated?

Can you please post your case against me as the only thing you have said is I didnt respond when things were going on, well I was going to sleep when HZ posted his case, I responded to the NN thing and have scum hunted and tried to create a useful town atmosphere.

I have no idea what this request has to do with the post you quoted, but whatever...

The first page and a half or so of your filter is just talking about policy, power roles and random fluff without any particular intention of finding scum. This isn't damning in as of itself, early game does tend to be like that, but the entirety of your efforts in the direction of finding scum is an overwhelming tunnel of myself.

As far as I can tell, you haven't looked at anyone else at all, and endlessly tunneling a likely lynch target for the day while repeating the same old arguments (made by other people before you, mostly) over and over is a good way to look active while not actually bringing anything new to the table or having to pretend to do some original scumhunting. You haven't made any significant and new contributions to the thread, which is scum's natural state.

That being said, I think it's possible that you're town and that you think tunneling me like this is accomplishing something, which is why I'm voting Xzavier over you.

Actually I have made a scum hunt albit small on alakaslam, I think he is noob scum which isnt as important as killing a scum who knows what they are doing.

You mentioned that he might be scum, but I haven't seen any attempt from you to pressure him, to solidify your read on him, or to suggest him as a lynch for today - that is, you haven't committed much to your read. What about his play is scummy to you?


More pressure on known scum. Why would scum do this to themselves?

On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 17:35 Aquanim wrote:
On June 25 2013 17:27 hzflank wrote:
Xzavier, Onegu and I all seem to have similar opinions on scum voting, yet we all seem to have greatly differing personalities. This leads me to believe that Xzavier and Onegu are town, as I think they arrived at their opinions by looking at the situation from a town point of view.

The only slight worry I have on Xzavier is:

On June 25 2013 14:33 Xzavier wrote:
Whats the massive scum yell. cuz im not gonna lie. i skimmed threw all the noisy neighbor spam just to see who was asking for them to claim. no other part of it means anything to me xD


But that could just be a character trait or a lack of time. On the whole I am uncomfortable with the votes on Xzavier.

Is there anything about Xzavier and Onegu's play which makes you think they're town besides where their vote is? Personally, I can't see anything about their play which makes me think they're looking at this game with a town mentality and actually searching for scum, rather than just jumping on the only other wagon going.

I think they are likely scum but I have a much townier read on you because I can see you're thinking about the game and critically evaluating your reads. Their arguments, on the other hand, are mostly "herp derp he disagreed with us about nosy neighbours" and "look at this single post and how it agrees with something someone else said, that's so scummy!". I don't think either of them could sincerely believe I'm scum based on the arguments they've presented.

You said you had some questions for me, will they be forthcoming soon?


Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case.

##: UNVOTE

##: VOTE ALAKASLAM


But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2.


This is the thread where Onegu changes his vote from Aqua to Alakaslam. It looks like Onegu is afraid. Afraid of what will happen if and when Aqua flips town and also afraid of what will happen if he makes an enemy in Aquanim for the long-run.
He cares about what Aquanim thinks. If they were both scum, he would already know what Aquanim thinks. This is a distinct difference here.


I've only gone through half of Aqua's filter, but this should be sufficient evidence to convince you of his alignment. His supposed "connections" with LoneMeow are perfectly valid sentiments that can come from a town perspective. As that relationship is the crux of Hurricane's argument, I cannot rationally agree that the evidence I have presented is outweighed by that argument.

I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:24 GMT
#1662
Forgive me, late Chromatically, I have lied once again as town.

I never intended to vote StiMaDDict even though I told Spicy that I would. I actually have StiM on my town list. Not confirmed town, but town nonetheless. I told Spicy I trust him in order to manipulate the NK. If Spicy is scum, he would push for killing me in his mafia QT. By saying I trust him, he may decide not to kill me and because I am the most confirmed town thus far, this would be beneficial to us. Unfortunately, I think Spicy is still traveling so my play didn't amount to much.

My scum team list is as follows:
Onegu
SpicyDinosaur
LoneMeow

I have very little doubt that Aquanim is town. The only possibility, in my eyes, is that StiM may flip mafia instead of LoneMeow. I don't think this is particularly likely. LoneMeow is significantly more scummy than StiM at this point.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:29 GMT
#1666
Remember that currently we have:

Aquanim accusing Spicy
Aquanim accusing LoneMeow
Spicy accusing Stim

This makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, LoneMeow, and Spicy likely.
It also makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow unlikely.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Spicy has never accused LoneMeow or Onegu of anything.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:30 GMT
#1668
On June 30 2013 10:27 hzflank wrote:
But Firm dismissed my theory so easily Firm and I are like polar opposites.

I didn't dismiss your theory at all. I just don't think you should see a conspiracy theory as the most likely course of action for the scum team and act according to the assumption that it occurred. Occam's razor!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:39 GMT
#1673
On June 30 2013 10:30 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 10:29 FirmTofu wrote:
Remember that currently we have:

Aquanim accusing Spicy
Aquanim accusing LoneMeow
Spicy accusing Stim

This makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, LoneMeow, and Spicy likely.
It also makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow unlikely.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Spicy has never accused LoneMeow or Onegu of anything.


That is not relevant. Ignore who Aqua is accusing. If he were scum then he would also be accusing them.

I disagree. The issue of self-preservation is only relevant if you give credit to WIFOM. If you give credence to WIFOM, then you must admit that it is impossible to predict anything off of accusations. I disagree.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:43 GMT
#1676
Do the days get shorter as the amount of players in the game decreases?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:46 GMT
#1678
As a final disclaimer:
We should take the reads of whoever dies tonight into special consideration. The mafia actively chose to kill someone because they knew that that person would probably push for a lynch against one of their teammates.

For example, if I die, you need to strongly consider lynching Spicy.
If Hurricane dies, we should revisit Aquanim's case and consider lynching him.
etc.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:49 GMT
#1680
On June 30 2013 10:46 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 10:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 30 2013 10:29 hzflank wrote:
Hurricane: If you do not die, why are they risky targeting a Vet over a known NN?


Honestly, I don't think they gave disproportionate consideration to there being a Vet. I know I didn't.



Give them more credit. They managed to hit the cop day 1. They are thinking about their shots.

Chromatically was the obvious choice. I'm pretty sure anyone in the same situation would have picked him or me.
Consider all the scum slips that Onegu had. IT's not like mafia had a flawless game or anything. I don't think it's even justifiable to assume that a veteran is more likely to be in the game anyway.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:54 GMT
#1684
On June 30 2013 10:51 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 10:46 FirmTofu wrote:
As a final disclaimer:
We should take the reads of whoever dies tonight into special consideration. The mafia actively chose to kill someone because they knew that that person would probably push for a lynch against one of their teammates.

For example, if I die, you need to strongly consider lynching Spicy.
If Hurricane dies, we should revisit Aquanim's case and consider lynching him.
etc.


This is actually why I was so clear about my 3-man team. I wanted to make it obvious. If I live, I can only explain it as me being off course. My most likely mis-read?

Aquanim.

Tonight was all about pressure, and taking the bullet for information. If Aquanim is scum, he is by far the best player on his team. Hopefully, my pressure overrode his objectivity and led to a shot of self-preservation. Honestly, I haven't even read what Aqua has posted in response to my rather ham-fisted burial attempt earlier. Night 2 was all about setting a tone, and I wanted my specific tone to be 'Lynch Scum Aqua'.

Whatever information we can glean from that is up for debate, but it was worth a shot. (Puns are a personal weakness, forgive me.)

*brofist*
I actually was wishing that hzflank would switch his read to Spicy so I could pretend to switch my read to StiM. The NK would give us sooooo much information if we were to coordinate that.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:57 GMT
#1687
On June 30 2013 10:55 hzflank wrote:
Also, Firm, you should have countered

Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 09:48 hzflank wrote:
Sorry for spamming, I'm running a single monitor and watching MLG. This thread is good for inflating my post counter though


why did I use that phrase?

I don't take orders from conspiracy theorists!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 01:58 GMT
#1688
I am beyond tired reading everything. I'm kind of hoping I die tonight.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 30 2013 02:07 GMT
#1694
"I told you... that we...should've...", FirmTofu paused as wiped the blood from coming out his mouth.
*cough cough*
"..............bought the lotto ticket."

FirmTofu let out a final sigh and passed into the nether world, his soul still searching for an answer to all of life's questions.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
July 05 2013 23:03 GMT
#1928
Still on my phone, so I can't type much. Just wanted to congratulate town on some excellent teamwork and coordination. This was an extremely rewarding game for me and I learned quite a bit. I sincerely hope manny of you will continue to play games on these forums.

P.S. HAHAHAHA I told y'all that Spicy and Onegu were mafia!!!
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
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