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Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 8

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 09:41 GMT
#1196
I only knew that you were Onegu's number one town read because I did not visit Alakaslam last night. No one else should of known for sure that you were his town read.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 09:45 GMT
#1200
I will let you get some sleep. This is going to get complicated. Lets do it when you wake up.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 10:25 GMT
#1204
Onegu, why did you make your blue claim when you did? I dont understand the timing.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 10:34 GMT
#1206
That information alone was useless. If Alakaslam had not counter-claimed we would not even be talking about what you claimed, only that you claimed blue.

Imagine there was no counter-claim:

We know that your number one town read visited Alakaslam.

That is not useful information. And you were still not in serious danger of being lynched. There was some moderate pressure being applied to you, but nowhere near enough to force a blue claim.

If you had saw someone visit Chromatically then it would be different. But quite frankly knowing someone visited Alakaslam did nothing to help us in the day 2 scum hunt.

I am still going over this. I have some good reasons as to why you are town, but also two good reasons as to why you are scum, which are:

It makes little sense for you to watch Alakaslam on night one
It makes little sense for you to claim that you did so when you claimed.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 10:35 GMT
#1207
If you are town then I am being critical of your play, I know. I am critical of my own also. Heck, in the last 2 pages I have made a horrendous blunder.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 11:07 GMT
#1208
I just want to put this out there for anyone who cares to answer:

What are the odds that there is a Mafia Tracker who tracked Hurricane?
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 11:17 GMT
#1209
This does not seem right. I will elaborate later, but for now...

##Unvote
##Vote: Alakaslam
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 11:25 GMT
#1211
So they happen to watch Hurricane, who happens to have a power role, who happens to use it on the same person that you pick to watch.

Specifically, we need to look at why the scum chose to track Hurricane. This is important.

Btw, it was no accident that our cop died on night 1. Look at Chromatically's filter, he was telegraphing cop. Unfortunately the town did not pick up on this a provide any cover (by acting like a cop). The scum picked up on it though and therefore they are obviously trying to work out who has roles.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 11:31 GMT
#1213
I do not like the fact that Hurricane's first reaction was: "The mafia tracked me and Onegu is scum".

If I were Hurricane, my first reaction would of been: "I can confirm Onegu's claim so Alakaslam is scum".

Btw, I have been through all the possible scenarios. I was weary of telling the scum who our blues are, but to be honest I already did that a couple of pages ago because I am a compete idiot. So, either...


Onegu is town
Alakaslam is scum
Hurricane is Mafia Framer


Onegu is town
Alakaslam is scum
Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN
Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane


Alakaslam is town
Onegu is scum
Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN
Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane


Either the scum tracked Hurricane, or Hurricane is the Mafia Framer.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 11:40 GMT
#1215
Because the mafia did not know who Onegu's number one town read was.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 11:43 GMT
#1217
That's a big gamble for them to take. They have no reason to take such a big risk when they are winning.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 11:55 GMT
#1219
On June 28 2013 20:49 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 20:42 Aquanim wrote:
On June 28 2013 20:40 hzflank wrote:
Because the mafia did not know who Onegu's number one town read was.

Why did they have to know? Alakaslam's claim that Onegu visited Hurricane (as opposed to visiting anyone else) could just be a coincidence.


Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 20:43 hzflank wrote:
That's a big gamble for them to take. They have no reason to take such a big risk when they are winning.


Let me rephrase this: Alakaslam could claim that Onegu had visited anyone other than him and it would have made Onegu just as guilty. The fact that Alakaslam happened to claim that Onegu had visited the person who Onegu in fact saw is irrelevant to the scum's plan if Alakaslam is scum.


You are correct. Thank you.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 11:56 GMT
#1220
Can you find fault with:

Onegu is town
Alakaslam is scum
Hurricane is Mafia Framer


Onegu is town
Alakaslam is scum
Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN


Alakaslam is town
Onegu is scum
Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN
Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 11:57 GMT
#1221
Simplified:

Onegu is town
Alakaslam is scum
Hurricane has a power role


Alakaslam is town
Onegu is scum
Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN
Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 12:01 GMT
#1222
I think I can make a case against Alakaslam in one sentence:

Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then either the Scum team quickly guessed that Hurricane was Onegu's town read, or the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 12:04 GMT
#1225
yes, power role includes those. Basically, not VT or Goon.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 12:26 GMT
#1228
On June 28 2013 21:06 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 21:01 hzflank wrote:
I think I can make a case against Alakaslam in one sentence:

Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then either the Scum team quickly guessed that Hurricane was Onegu's town read, or the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane.

If Alakaslam is town then Onegu is scum and so his "town read" is irrelevant.

I think this should read:

Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane.

which isn't totally implausible. Furthermore, if they hadn't Onegu could easily have just claimed that nobody visited whoever he targeted. (Like I said, though, this has the inherent risk that someone did - just like any fakeclaim of Watcher.

I agree that Alakaslam is by far the most likely of the two to be scum, but I don't think this reason quite holds water.


Your base is better than mine

However, Onegu said in his claim that someone visited his target. He could not then say that no one did without getting lynched. If Onegu is scum then the Mafia Tracker targeted Hurricane.

Furthermore, that means that if Onegu is scum then the scum team knew that Hurricane had a power role before Onegu's claim. They need a mislynch on the watcher today so that they can shoot out other confirmed power role on night 2.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 12:26 GMT
#1229
EBWOP, horrible login in my last paragraph, will redo
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 12:27 GMT
#1230
Furthermore, that means that if Onegu is scum then:

The scum team knew at the start of day 2 that Hurricane has a role. This does not go any further

I should think before posting.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 28 2013 13:06 GMT
#1233
On June 28 2013 21:48 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Just caught up on 10 pages of thread.

Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 20:25 hzflank wrote:
So they happen to watch Hurricane, who happens to have a power role, who happens to use it on the same person that you pick to watch.

Specifically, we need to look at why the scum chose to track Hurricane. This is important.

Btw, it was no accident that our cop died on night 1. Look at Chromatically's filter, he was telegraphing cop. Unfortunately the town did not pick up on this a provide any cover (by acting like a cop). The scum picked up on it though and therefore they are obviously trying to work out who has roles.


Thats a hell of a lot of coincidences. Also by reading thread has hurricane actually confirmed he visited alakaslam or are we just assuming it?



Hurricane confirmed it.

I did not like the way that he confirmed it, as you will read. However, Hurricane was my strongest town read and he was extremely tired at the time.
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