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On July 02 2013 12:34 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 21:42 Spicydinosaur wrote:
@everyone, please look at the relationships between everyone, not just the individual filters.
Quick FYI: i will be traveling for the next couple of days so i will be posting from my phone. Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.
d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there. Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 01:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Also forgot to add something. He had a scum read on aqua d1...and then aqua has a huge post on slam is most likely scum which led to a misslynch... but he now only has a null read?? Doesnt make sense except that hes protecting him or at least not throwing him under the bus yet. Spicy, your entire read on me (and for that matter StiM) appears to be based on relationships (and mostly speculative between the two of us rather than to the confirmed scum Onegu), rather than individual filters. I appreciate that there isn't a whole lot in StiM's filter to go off, but FirmTofu had a strong town read on me based on my play viewed individually. If you think I'm scum, what in FirmTofu's analysis ( link) do you disagree with?
Tofu's post honestly doesnt say much other than you stuck to your guns on an unpopular topics and that you "pressured a scum," though at the time no one knew onegu was scum.
As for your relationship with onegu...
Onegu votes you against the xzavier wagon. Obviously he knows xzavier is town so he puts a vote on you for later town cred. Your wagon starts building and Onegu panics and removes his vote and puts it on slam. We can see onegu panicing the next day when he fake claims early to avoid a lynch. Aqua then comes to his rescue posting a case to save onegu.
Stim and Aqua
I believe stim's play has been deliberate in that he was meant to be isolated and not have "relationships" with other players. Barely posting makes it harder to read and thus easier to hide.
As stated before stim had a scum read on aqua d1 but that turned into a null read after d2 with aqua's vote on slam. Their other important interaction is on D1 with stim voting aqua. Stim threw his vote down very late d1 and it made the count 4-4 between xzavier and aqua. Obviously this was a risky play as only one more vote switch to aqua would seal his fate... so why did stim vote aqua?
possible reason #1: stim voting xzavier is a lot more dangerous as xzavier would flip town and everyone on the wagon is suspicious. Most people were already suspicious of stim for his late voting and if he just hoped on the xzavier bandwagon it would throw huge red flags up for everyone. Similarly, stim voting for a candidate outside the wagon would get a lot of attention as did everyone else who voted outside the wagon. Aqua on the other hand was not going to get lynched and serves the duel purpose of voting for a fellow scum and not drawing as much attention to himself. It was riskier because the vote was so close at that point, but even if the votes held, xzavier would be lynched due to tie breaker rules. Furthermore stim doesnt push his vote, just posts his case and leaves it at that.
Possible reason #2: stim thought that aqua was going to be lynched and intentionally bussed him. The vote was 3-4 and scum were panicing in qt about the momentum building on aqua and wanted to get in before the tide was overwhelming. Onegu couldnt switch his vote because it would look extremely scummy. This scenario is the far less likely as the focus was on xzavier mostly.
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On July 02 2013 22:03 hzflank wrote:
This makes no sense. A scum Stim would not want to bus a scum Aqua on day 1. Stim does not post much and therefore is not a hugely influential player. Aqua was getting stuck in on day 1 and was already putting himself in a position to influence the game. The non-influential scum would not bus the influential scum like that.
I do not understand why a town Spicy is focusing on Stim at this point, and not focusing on anyone else. Even if Stim is scum (and Spicy is town) then the town can only win by lynching him on day 5, because I will be around for the day 4 voting and I am highly unlikely to vote for Stim. The only possible day 4 lynch on Stim is a mis-lynch.
You are probably wondering why I have been defending Stim so much. We had bad luck with the day 1 modkill and then had a night 1 cop kill. We mislynched our tracker on day 2. We found ourselves in a 4-3 LYLO with no useful power roles. I want to win the game and based on the reads I have I need Stim to be town in order to win the game. Therefore, I have been trying to cultivate a town-town relationship with Stim to increase our chances of winning the game. I have not been hiding this, my thoughts about Stim have been out in the open for a long time now.
See my above. Also i am not just focusing on stim, i am focusing on stims/aqau/onegu's relationships.
Ill be posting relationships between lone/stim/onegu in a little bit.
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On July 02 2013 22:12 hzflank wrote:
I will pre-empt whoever will show up to say that Stim and I could both be scum.
If we were both scum then I would not need to defend Stim at all. I could make a case on either LoneMeow or Spicy and have a pretty good chance of getting Aqua to vote with me. Then Stim shows up with the usual late vote on my target and the scum team (Stim and I) win the game.
It would be bad scum play for me to defend Stim if we were both scum.
at this point in the game i wouldnt be suprised if there was a busing or cross claims of being scum. Only 1 mislynch is needed so there could be a busing d4 for town cred to get a mislynch the following day.
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Onegu and lone relationship: virtually no interaction except for lones vote on confirmed scum onegu. Onegu did say early d1 that he put his scum team as aqua, firm and one of (lone, alakaslam). If lone is scum, then they kept themselves separate all game.
Lone and aqua:
D1, lone throws his vote down for xzavier and would be open to voting stim, but NOT aqua. Then day 2 lone states that he cant ignore aqua's logic and votes for slam, basically sheeping aqua. Throughout their relationship, lone never though aqua as scum.
Aqua states early on d1 that he doesnt want to lynch lone because lone says pregame that he is on vacation. This doesnt really tell us much as pregame is before alignment is sent out. Aqua later states that lone's 2 day 1 posts are more constructive than xzavier's entire filter. Aqua further says in his nighttime post that if he should die, lone should be given space to play and he liked his posts. Aqua later clarifies that his read on lone is null. During the d2 votes, aqua now starts to put lone in a possible scum team if onegu flips red. And now finally aqua wants to vote lone over stim because lone's play feels more careful.
Just from reading the above i dont see a lone/aqua team. Aqua seems to give lone a lot of room to post and then when lone doesnt pick it up, aqau starts suspecting he's scum. Possible scum criticism in the thread but just doesnt feel it. A stim/lone team can easily be made since they are both lurkers and dont have really any interactions together.
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On July 02 2013 23:06 hzflank wrote:This paragraph deserves to be quoted again. Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote:
The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though. How can Lone's case on me possibly be a town move? Even if he actually thinks I am scum then he should of planned to lynch me on day 5. If I am scum, how does a town Lone expect to lynch me day 4? I do not think that a town Lone could possibly of made that move. Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 22:46 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Just from reading the above i dont see a lone/aqua team
Maybe I am tunnelling too much, but I know Hurricane (confirmed town) thinks that the scum team is Aqua/Lone. I am confident that Firm (confirmed town) thinks that Spicy/Lone is the scum team. I think that either Aqua/Lone or Spicy/Lone is the scum team, and I have made this clear enough recently (even before Lone's case). I am genuinely surprised that Spicy does not think that Aqua/Lone is the scum team.
Its the voting on d2 that doesnt make me think aqua/lone team. Lone completely sheeps aqua on the slam vote and once slam flipped, both would look extremely bad. The more likely scenario is one of them was scum and other is town that just piggybacked. I really liked the aqua/stim team over the weekend, but lone's case makes 0 sense to me as it feels like he is just posted on a townie so he doesnt have to make a case on his scum buddy. Im still liking stim as a lynch because of his late d2 posts but lone is seriously making me wonder what he is doing.
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On July 02 2013 23:27 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 23:24 Spicydinosaur wrote:On July 02 2013 23:06 hzflank wrote:This paragraph deserves to be quoted again. On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote:
The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though. How can Lone's case on me possibly be a town move? Even if he actually thinks I am scum then he should of planned to lynch me on day 5. If I am scum, how does a town Lone expect to lynch me day 4? I do not think that a town Lone could possibly of made that move. On July 02 2013 22:46 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Just from reading the above i dont see a lone/aqua team
Maybe I am tunnelling too much, but I know Hurricane (confirmed town) thinks that the scum team is Aqua/Lone. I am confident that Firm (confirmed town) thinks that Spicy/Lone is the scum team. I think that either Aqua/Lone or Spicy/Lone is the scum team, and I have made this clear enough recently (even before Lone's case). I am genuinely surprised that Spicy does not think that Aqua/Lone is the scum team. Its the voting on d2 that doesnt make me think aqua/lone team. Lone completely sheeps aqua on the slam vote and once slam flipped, both would look extremely bad. The more likely scenario is one of them was scum and other is town that just piggybacked. I really liked the aqua/stim team over the weekend, but lone's case makes 0 sense to me as it feels like he is just posted on a townie so he doesnt have to make a case on his scum buddy. Im still liking stim as a lynch because of his late d2 posts but lone is seriously making me wonder what he is doing. Do you realize that to beat a Lone/Stim we have to lynch Stim on day 4? If we lynch Lone then day 5 is Aqua, Spicy and Stim. Do you think Stim will get lynched in that scenario?
Just reading from thread sentiment that there seems to be enough people to vote lone right now so atm it doesnt. But we still have hours left in the night cycle and then a whole day so im not worried about "having the votes" right now. Theres plenty of time to actually talk about it before then.
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Hz, look at stim's posts on d2 when he joins the discussion on onegu/slam. To me they dont feel genuine and just act like he's asking obvious questions to look confused on the issue and thus now active in the discussion. Then with the way the votes go, a mislynch is inevitable, so he votes against it for town cred. Do you feel his conversation there was genuine or am i just being extremely paranoid?
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On July 02 2013 23:41 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 23:35 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hz, look at stim's posts on d2 when he joins the discussion on onegu/slam. To me they dont feel genuine and just act like he's asking obvious questions to look confused on the issue and thus now active in the discussion. Then with the way the votes go, a mislynch is inevitable, so he votes against it for town cred. Do you feel his conversation there was genuine or am i just being extremely paranoid? I feel that it was genuine. I do not think Stim spends a lot of time reading the game. His MO seems to be to just pop in every 3 days, read for 30 minutes and make a vote. I think he was confused, and if he had access to scum QT he would not of been confused.
Im saying the confusion was faked, and he knew what was going on, either through actually reading the thread or scum qt. He acted confused to look like hes active in the discussion and then parked his vote against the wagon.
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On July 03 2013 00:06 hzflank wrote:
My opinions may be coloured by...
If Stim is scum then screw it. This forum mafia game is stupid if scum can so easily win just by lurking. However, if Aqua/Spicy is scum then they are legitimately beating me.
lurkers are usually punished eventually in games with either votes/vig shots/ or they actually start posting more. It just so happens that in our game with the way things have been going that lurkers havent been the focus.
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On July 03 2013 01:10 hzflank wrote:
I have nothing more to say about Stim. I have tried to improve my read on him but I cannot at the moment, so still town.
I feel like all of the Stim talk had just distracted me. Lone posted something meaty to dig into. Alternatively, I have been spamming up the thread if you want to go that route. Focusing on Stim is not going to achieve anything more.
Lets talk lone then.
In sum, his case against you just makes him look more scummy to me. I've had you pegged as townie since n1, which is one of the reasons you werent included in my night post about possible scum targets. According to him you and I are most likely scum buddies but he doesnt show our connection. Just feels like an extremely weak case to me.
I was happy with my scum team of aqua/stim up until his case on you. Now im not as confident. If lone is scum then one of my reads is wrong.
Id like lone to show what associations between you and i make us scum team. And also what connections u and stim (his second pick after me) have to be scum.
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On July 03 2013 01:56 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 01:37 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Id like lone to show what associations between you and i make us scum team. And also what connections u and stim (his second pick after me) have to be scum. Exactly. He deliberately avoided implicating his partner. I am a bit biased here so, Can you see why a town Lone would of done what he did?
Well he has a habit of dropping a case and then leaving. The only explanation i think is that he doesnt have an idea who the second scum partner could be and is waiting to see. Honestly its hard to gauge him because he has so little posts. I almost want a anti-read on why aqua, me, and stim ARENT his top read.
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On July 03 2013 04:04 hzflank wrote:More from Onegu... Saying that Stim is the best lurker to vote for on day 1? Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 16:59 Onegu wrote:On June 24 2013 16:53 FirmTofu wrote:
As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and
##Vote: fyfy
because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. It is better to vote for lurkers who have posted one time and stopped then to vote for someone who hasnt posted anything because they will most likely get replaced or modkilled. Don't analyse Spicy's meta? Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 01:05 Onegu wrote:
It is bad to connect meta on noobs because depending on what worked one game and what didnt work they will change how they play Trying to move the conversation away from Spicy being scum? Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 12:14 Onegu wrote:
Just want to put this out there, if you think spicy is scum fine, but please dont blue hunt, and if you do blue hunt dont post who you think is blue all that does is help scum not town.
Just wanted to comment on these. Not sure why onegu tried to defend my meta when i was clearly referencing it and thus was ok with people looking at it, in fact encouraging.
As for the second quote it looks like he was saying "if you think someone could be a blue, dont say so," not looking like hes moving the convo from me at all.
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On July 03 2013 05:49 StiMaDDict wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 05:44 hzflank wrote:
@Stim
There are 2 scum. Your options are: hzflank, Aquanim, SpicyDinosaur and LoneMeow. Who are your picks? LoneMeow and SpicyDinosaur. btw, if Lone flips town, I'm going to super fucking pissed.
Please explain why your read on aqua changed from scum n1 to null n2.
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On July 03 2013 10:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Spicy's night 2 - day 3 - night 3 posting has done nothing to change my opinion of him. You'll note that I went hard after Aqua during night 2, and not Spicy. (In fact, I even offered up some bogus logic that Spicy would magically be confirmed Town in my eyes if I survived the Night.) This was done as a tandem effort with FirmTofu. Tofu had established himself as the most likely candidate to put pressure on Spicy, and I would be the public face of pressure on Aqua. Whoever died, it gives the town information. I lived, which helps exonerate Aqua.
This makes little sense and does no way help to exonerate aqua. Tofu could have been killed for the purpose of making me look worse, as it evidently worked on you. We don't know why scum killed tofu the other night other than speculation. If i were scum why would i kill off tofu when it would make me look so much worse.
On July 03 2013 19:43 hzflank wrote:
I cannot get into the head of a town-Spicy at all. I feel like I spent a long time screaming at Spicy to look at the Aqua-Lone scenario, but he refused to do so. He was focussed on the highly unlikely Aqua-Stim.
Aqua did what you could call defending Lone in the early game. At the very least Aqua left connections between himself and Lone before Lone looked overly scummy. Spicy did not say a great deal about the non-scummy Lone, but once Lone was in a scum position Spicy refused to talk about the possibility of Lone being scum. If I were town in Spicy's position then I would have been attacking Aqua hard, and I would not brought Stim into it at all.
I believe that Spicy was given every chance to solve the game in the case of an Aqua-Lone scum team, but he could not see it because Spicy is not looking at the game from a town point of view. From a scum point of view, Spicy did not see the need to bus Lone until it was too late.
I realise that there are other possibilities such as Spicy-Aqua or the mysterious Stim. However, I really have spent far too much time on this game already. We cannot be 100% certain that I am correct, in fact we cannot even get close to certainty, but at some point we have to go for it and try to win.
How did i refuse to look at an aqua-lone scenario? i looked it up, saw there was a little bit of connection in their interaction but still believed a stim-aqua team was more likely? Lone didnt move up on my scum radar till he posted the case on you which i immediately stated i didnt like. He never followed up on my questions so why would i change my thought just based off of a case he made on you? If i were scum i would have jumped on lone as everyone else did. But i didnt, i stuck to my read on aqua-stim where i have shown a strong connection.
I also dont see how night kills exonerates aqua in any way what so ever. Killing tofu just put more pressure on me which is exactly what scum wanted.
We have a whole day and everyone is just playing into aqua's hands. Please dont let the night kill order be so persuasive that it clouds aqua's scummy filter.
As most others think stim is town im voting for my second scum pick of aqua.
##vote Aquanim
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On July 04 2013 00:33 hzflank wrote:Spicy, I don't believe that I mentioned night-kills in my case. I never took them into consideration because it gets too WIFOM.. Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 23:53 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Lone didnt move up on my scum radar till he posted the case on you which i immediately stated i didnt like. This is the problem. We were down to 5 players for the last 72 hours (Onegu and Hurricane did not count). Apart from yourself that is only 4 other players. If you were town then all 4 of them would have been on your scum radar. But you did not pro-actively scum hunt. You have played reactive to everything. Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 23:53 Spicydinosaur wrote:
As most others think stim is town im voting for my second scum pick of aqua. Regardless of whether you are town or scum that statement should not be true. You should be voting for Aqua because that was your only realistic chance of winning the game. It does not matter whether he is your first, second or seventy-seventh scum pick.
You didnt mention nks, hurricane did. How can you say i didnt hunt when i went through stim and aqua's filters to show their connection and continued to press on that. It almost seemed like you were the one fixated on lone and just shrugged off my connection as unlikely. I followed up with a post on a lone-aqua connection explaining why i didnt think it was likely and the stim-aqua was more likely. I didnt post a case on on you because i believed you were town. How is that not scum hunting compared to stim or lone?
As for my "reactive posts"... ive been on the defensive ALL GAME from my initial posts. I make a ball busting joke back to chrom, its taken out of context and people claim im over defensive, then i defend xzavier because scum wouldnt act like that, he flips town and im the scummy one, i post a legitimate case on hurricane but im scum because AFTERWARDS he improves his game. ect ect ect.
Aqua gets the mvp at this point for his scum play. I dont know how else to convince people to look at aqua.
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GG everyone! Hope to see you guys in future games.
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Great game to learn how to play scum on and improve.
Remember contrary to what BH says...scum slips DO exist!
On June 24 2013 12:52 Onegu wrote:
You have to remember scum have a tracker also so if they track the NN to someone they get a stronger read he is blue than just NN, if it is revealed then scum tracker doesnt have to worry about that possibility and just blue hunt. .
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On July 06 2013 05:37 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Wow, that mafia coach in the QT was practically orchestrating this entire game for them. WAY more active than I thought a coach would be in these games. Onegu would have died Day 2 if the coach hadn't explicitly given him the only excuse for a Watcher to target a scum-read (post #184 in mafia chat) that I requested from Onegu.
Disagree on orchestrating the entire game. Ace was great when we hit a wall and were all "i dont know what to do here" and gave us good advice and help.
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On July 06 2013 05:57 LoneMeow wrote:
My 3 major lessons from this game were:
1) I utterly suck as scum, far more than I do as town
2) Don't bother playing if you can't play full on from the start, playing from behind the whole game is not fun
3) Playing scum is not as much fun, and generates a whole lot of stress
Probably the only thing I managed to get right was latching on to Xzavier on day 1. After that it was just downhill all the way.
Going to take at least one game break for now I think - this game quite literally made me lose sleep and appetite from the stress, so I think I need some time to recover.
Thanks to all the hosts and players and sorry to my teammates whom I let down.
Im with you on the stress. So much easier playing town and scum hunting. I'm sure itll get easier with future games but damn.
You didnt let us down lone, all 3 of us made mistakes at some point. I was just glad we didnt get lynched 1,2,3 from the start.
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Wanted to have a separate post to thank ace for his scum coaching. What he did that really helped me was to basically calm me down. There were a few times were i was getting heat and he said "itll pass dont panic." For my first scum game, i learned a ton, so thank you.
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EPT
