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I will try another angle:
LoneMeow was the first to vote on Xzavier. I think that LoneMeow is town. He has never looked scummy to me and he thought that Xzavier was scum for the start. It makes sense that LoneMeow would be the first to vote on Xzavier.
Next to add their vote was Chromatically. Despite my earlier attack, Chrom has been looking more and more town to me. The only reason that I can see a scum Chrom voting Xzavier when he did is if Aqua is also scum, and everyone thought that idea was ridiculous. Therefore, I expect most of you see Chrom as town and the first two people on the wagon as town.
Aqua was the third to vote. Most of you think Aqua is town. That means most of you must think that the first 3 people on the wagon are town.
Is that not odd to anyone? If three townies jump on a scum wagon then there should of been a counter play by the scum team by now. And yet I started the Aqua wagon and I am posting this. It does not make sense.
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Okay, well I am going to stop defending Xzavier now. One he flips I will be able to draw some better conclusions.
We will also get Fyfy's flip, which is a bonus.
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@Alakaslam, what do you think of Xzavier? I should warn you that if he flips red then your filter looks just as bad as mine, possibly worse!
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You flipping green is what I am worried about. You flipping green would spread some scumminess around but not really implicate a single person.
On the other hand you flipping red would be fantastic, as it eliminates one scum and makes 3 people almost certainly town.
There's such a big gap between you flipping red and green.
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On June 26 2013 09:08 Aquanim wrote:Hiya all. My opinion on the StiMaDDict wagon: His play hasn't helped town at all so far, but the sheer volume (or lack of it) of his filter makes it difficult to establish a solid read on him. He could be scum, but he could also just be lazy/busy/trolly town, it's too early to tell. In any case, it is possible to establish a much better read on Xzavier. I'm far more confident on my scumread of him than on StiMaDDict. In addition, knowing Xzavier's alignment for certain tells us a LOT about what's happened today. Knowing StiMaDDict's alignment would tell us next to nothing. + Show Spoiler [An aside] +On June 25 2013 15:29 Xzavier wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 15:16 FirmTofu wrote:
Hey Xzavier, what do you think about Spicy? Would you be willing to switch your vote onto him? Honestly not today. he did a really good jpb as town last game and gave some good insights. After going threw his filter it seems like he was forced into a defensive posting pattern due to pressure. he hasnt said much recently. Honestly i wouldnt mind lynching alakazam day 1. But ill giv him a chance to respond. Im really not liking chrom or auqa for their tunnelling me while ignoring logic and basing everything off of the fact that i havnt caught scum yet or made a case. On June 26 2013 03:50 Xzavier wrote:
I dont get why aqua and chrome are voting somebody they know can be a good town.
I havnt made huge cases yet, i havnt had time to. ill be active during night one if im still aliv. I would prefer to delay my lynch until day2. today id like a lynch on alakazam or aqua. idc which. ill probably choose between the two on my break fepending on the situation.
IF I DO GET LYNCHED: everybody take a long hard look at aqua and chrom.
and look at alakazam now
he lurks and one of his few posts was saying im sheeping and doing no scumhunting this game until the guy im sheeping looks scummy. the godfather last game i was in said something almost identical to that. its a pretty big noob scum tell imo. alone it judt warrents serious investifagation. There's a pattern here of wanting not to lynch people based on their strong play in previous games... which has absolutely no relevance to this game. Could be a side-effect of him not having time to read this thread properly, but not wanting to commit to anything relevant to this game is characteristic of scum.
Actually I agree. I have been doing some more thinking.
If Stim flips green: Nothing
If Stim flips red: Aqua is town
If Xzavier flips green: Lots of little bits, but nothing concrete
If Xzavier Flips red: Chrom, LoneMeow and Hurricane are town. Tofu is very likely town.
Additionally, if Xzavier flips red it might be possible to use town roles to just straight up win the game by day 3 or 4. You only need to look at 4 people: if role x exists use on person A, lynch person C, etc.
Therefore, there is more to gain by lynching Xzavier than Stim.
On June 26 2013 08:57 Xzavier wrote:
Relax ill flip green. i think the reason there wasnt a scum counterplay id
s because scum took iniative. Hen town hopped on boaredm since it looks like im pretty dead. Can somebody explain to me why im scum! Lol.
This is not a defense. If you think that LoneMeow's vote on you makes him scum then you have not been following the game closely enough. I did my best to give you a chance to defend yourself, but you just haven't produced anything, and your attackers are making good points.
Sorry for moving me vote 4 times :/
##Unvote: StimAddict
##Vote: Xzavier
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On June 26 2013 09:11 Chromatically wrote:
Spicy and hz, did you read my case? It didn't convince you at all?
And if you put your vote on someone random, and then don't push their lynch at all, you are wasting your vote.
I read it and it did not convince me. I will respect your time and go back to read it again though. Currently I have read some parts of the thread many times but other parts only once or twice.
I put my vote on someone who I thought more scummy than Xzavier. I still think that, but you can see above what my reasons for now voting Xzavier are.
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I'm actually in quite a good position. If Xzavier flips town then I don't look scummy. If Xsavier flips red then a day 2 case against me is beneficial anyway, since there are only 3 other likely scum targets and I can just aim at one of them for my defense. Even if I get lynched day 2, as long as the power roles are being used on the 4 main scum targets then you are likely to get a scum lynch on day 3.
In short: a super late day 1 wagon on me would be a terrible idea for the town. (Not that it was suggested).
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On June 26 2013 10:12 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 10:10 hzflank wrote:
I'm actually in quite a good position. If Xzavier flips town then I don't look scummy. If Xsavier flips red then a day 2 case against me is beneficial anyway, since there are only 3 other likely scum targets and I can just aim at one of them for my defense. Even if I get lynched day 2, as long as the power roles are being used on the 4 main scum targets then you are likely to get a scum lynch on day 3.
In short: a super late day 1 wagon on me would be a terrible idea for the town. (Not that it was suggested). ..what? Why are you thinking about what makes you look scummy? Why aren't you lynching based on who you actually think is scum?
Because it is not a one day game. I am lynching based on which lynch I think is most beneficial to the town, as I said when I voted.
In fact, at this point I think it would be bad for the town for me to try to get people to vote for the people who I think have the most chance of flipping red.
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On June 26 2013 10:16 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 15:27 hzflank wrote:On June 25 2013 15:11 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 14:51 hzflank wrote:In my opinion, Alakaslam has posted the single most scummy sentence in this thread. On the whole I do not think Alakaslam is scummy, but I do think the following post aimed at Onegu should be taken notice of. On June 25 2013 00:46 Alakaslam wrote:
If it helps, you guide my vote until you look scummy.
Alakaslam, at the time that you posted that, what gave you such a strong town read on Onegu? If Alakaslam isn't your scumread, who is? Do you still think I am scum after my replies to the cases against me? In either case, who are your other scumreads? You are, but I admit that this as much to do with process than anything else. Sorry for the hold up, I am trying to make a case against you starting as neutral as I can. I am also trying to ignore anything about NN in my case. I am finding it hard to do because being neutral is harder than it sounds, but I will get there. I am not going to name any other names until I am done with you one way or the other, as I have a habit of splitting attention. In my first read I did not find your replies to the cases against you to be good enough, but if that remains the case after my next reads I will explain why. Currently I think you are more scummy than anyone else, but with 10 people to choose from (Stim does not count), the most scummy is not as much as I would like. Okay, my next post will be a case, but it may take up to 30 minutes. Hey hz. If you still are wondering what I was thinking about Onegu, he really cleaned up after some questionable (but well intentioned!!) posting (linking old games to "give town meta" {read: distract town, Onegu alerted me}, trying to make a bit of a scumread on Tofu and defend myself at the same time, while not checking what I was doing, general hypocrisy etc.) As you can see, I've been reading your filter. I am wondering, Whence does the scumread on Aqua come from? Does it still stand?
I am not convinced that Aqua is scum. It's still conditional on Chromatically also being scum. Going from a statistical point of view that is a bad way for me to look at it for the time being.
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Imagine that I think that player A has a 25% chance of being Scum, and player B has a 30% chance of being scum. At first glance it appears that I should vote for player B.
However, if voting for player B is guaranteed to produce no other information, then voting for player B only has a 30% chance of moving the town closer to the win.
If voting for player A has a 25% chance to produce information that will all but confirm multiple players as town, then voting for player A has a >30% chance of moving the town closer to the win.
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To put it another way:
I think that Stim and Alakaslam are both more likely to be scum than to be scum than Xzavier is. However, if Stim or Alakaslam were to flip red right now I would still not be confident as to who the other scum are. If Xzavier were to flip red right now then I think that the town would have a very good chance of finding the other scum quickly.
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It's not like Xzav is a hundred time less likely to be scum than others. Additionally, I did not want to put a lot of effort into creating the late counter-wagon because I was hoping that some other people would get moving with it. I tried to stimulate that conversation a few hours ago but no one moved on it.
The reason that I should not of been the one to start the other wagon is that even if I did and Xzav flips red, or the other wagon flips green, that gives me no information as to who the scumbuddies are and no be honest I don't think it would of given the town enough info either. If someone else had been more proactive in starting the counter wagon then it would of given better scum reading material.
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On June 26 2013 10:46 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 10:44 hzflank wrote:
It's not like Xzav is a hundred time less likely to be scum than others. Additionally, I did not want to put a lot of effort into creating the late counter-wagon because I was hoping that some other people would get moving with it. I tried to stimulate that conversation a few hours ago but no one moved on it.
The reason that I should not of been the one to start the other wagon is that even if I did and Xzav flips red, or the other wagon flips green, that gives me no information as to who the scumbuddies are and no be honest I don't think it would of given the town enough info either. If someone else had been more proactive in starting the counter wagon then it would of given better scum reading material. Don't you have a townread on Xzav? You were defending him not too long ago.
It's gradually deteriorated. His latest posts did nothing to help him, and in fact he made one really scummy post recently.
On June 26 2013 08:57 Xzavier wrote:
Relax ill flip green. i think the reason there wasnt a scum counterplay id
s because scum took iniative. Hen town hopped on boaredm since it looks like im pretty dead. Can somebody explain to me why im scum! Lol.
Either he is scum or he is not even trying to win.
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There will be a one our gap between night actions being closed and the night ending. Are we allowed to post during that time?
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I don't agree with this:
On June 26 2013 13:37 Aquanim wrote:
I played a large role in lynching a townie Day 1 and I acnowledge that some of you probably suspect me because of this. I believed he was the most likely player in the game to flip red, and I explained clearly why I believed that. If you suspect that I am scum, I suggest you read my filter and ask yourself two questions:
Your vote on Xz is a complete null read. A town Aqua would have been correct to vote on the other wagon when you did (on day one where you could not possibly of had a night-action read on anyone).
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@Hurricane:
If you were a Vig, and the game rules were that you must take your shot on night 1, who would you shoot?
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EBWOP:
@Hurricane
Correction to that question:
If you had to Vig kill someone tonight, but all players looked equally scummy, who would you shoot?
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On June 26 2013 14:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 14:19 hzflank wrote:
EBWOP:
@Hurricane
Correction to that question:
If you had to Vig kill someone tonight, but all players looked equally scummy, who would you shoot? This is WIFOM hell. If I pick a target, say 'StiM' and that target is actually town, the mafia will let me shoot away and bury my team. If I pick a target, say 'hzflank' and that target is mafia, the mafia can roleblock me tonight and send a Goon to kill me. I refuse to answer this question on the grounds that you look SUPER DUPER like scum right now, unless you're actually the Vig.
I don't even know if there is a Vig in the game. We have not seen a night play out so we have no idea what roles are present. If there is a Vig, then as Aqua said, they need to be damn sure that their target is scum if they are going to shoot before we get a successful lynch.
My point was: Aqua is bulletproof tonight (from the scum NK). Even if they are both town and the scum want Onegu lynched day 2, they still will not NK Aqua tonight.
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EBWOP
To clarify: I am NOT saying that a Vig should shoot aqua. A mis-kill would be disastrous, and I am not claiming him to be scum.
I was just thinking 'if this guy flipped now, what would it tell us'. And I realized that the town stands more to gain from an Aqua flip than anyone else. Aqua had the second wagon in day 1, and there is now a wagon forming on Onegu, who claims he will make his case on Aqua.
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People are talking about posting their cases before the night actions occur. The scum will therefore have a reasonable indication of how the day 2 voting might go before they even have to get their night actions in.
I disagreed on Hurricane's policy, so I wanted to push him on it. Maybe he knew someone that I did not?
Regardless, I would be very careful of letting the scum know who the wagons will be on before they have to pick their night kill.
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EPT
