EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 15
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
My two mafia reads are LoneMeow and Spicy. Obviously StiM needs to be vetted thoroughly, but that requires the luxury of time which I do not have. My read based on his reactions and the conclusions he is haphazardly drawing leads me to believe he is town. Spicy's night 2 - day 3 - night 3 posting has done nothing to change my opinion of him. You'll note that I went hard after Aqua during night 2, and not Spicy. (In fact, I even offered up some bogus logic that Spicy would magically be confirmed Town in my eyes if I survived the Night.) This was done as a tandem effort with FirmTofu. Tofu had established himself as the most likely candidate to put pressure on Spicy, and I would be the public face of pressure on Aqua. Whoever died, it gives the town information. I lived, which helps exonerate Aqua. I'd recommend for the remaining townie (probably StiM, but there's a slight chance it could be Spicy or LoneMeow) to follow the lead of Aqua and HZ. If the town splits votes, we lose. There will be plenty of time to diagnose sinister Day 4 mafia tactics later. For now, you three are a unit, and it is up to you to either prove me right, or solve this game. Barring StiM really stepping in it later today, I expect to see a LoneMeow or Spicy lynch. I'll leave the decision as to whether you want to lynch the riskier pick so we can get this game over with, or draw it out for more information up to you. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
Right, sorry. LoneMeow suspects hz. I have NO idea where that would come from if you were playing this game from a Town perspective. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
(Fun game, guys. Very entertaining for the obs as well, I hear.) | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
Spicy: "hz should probably die, but tofu is a very loud and active townie. Him dying would push votes to me. We need to focus on getting an aqua mislynch and to a lesser extent, a stim. Hurricane is throwing a lot of shit at aqua so we may want to keep him around. And the more i think of it i think tofu may be a better nk as i can just claim scum killed him to throw more suspicion on me. " Onegu: "We have to keep stim alive no matter what, aqua should be kept alive also as he is a possible suspect , hurricane Hz and Firm are our best possible targets, Of those i think hz os pur best target killing firm points to one of us and hurricane is makeing a case on aqua, so i think hz is our best option " Love it when a plan comes together. Played like a fiddle, fellows. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On July 06 2013 05:47 Spicydinosaur wrote: Disagree on orchestrating the entire game. Ace was great when we hit a wall and were all "i dont know what to do here" and gave us good advice and help. Yeah, if he was coaching me, I'd defend him too. Felt like playing vs. 4 mafia, reading all the unsolicited advice and strategy he was giving you guys... | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On July 06 2013 05:58 VisceraEyes wrote: Don't hate just because you didn't make full use of your coaches. Scum coaches are different from town coaches in that they have all the information just like the scumteam does - so coaching scum is less about trying to help newbies without slipping information about others and more about general strategy/advice. Having read most of the ScumQT I don't think anything Ace did was out of line. He was certainly more active as a coach than I usually am, but I don't think he "orchestrated the game" by any stretch. I specifically asked for Onegu's reason for Watching a scum read several times, and he was struggling to come up with the only town-side reason for doing so: On June 28 2013 09:52 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I want Onegu's REASONS for deciding to Watch alakaslam last night as well. Friendly reminder so no one speculates on this topic publicly. On June 28 2013 17:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This is not the reasoning I was looking for from Onegu to 'Watch' Alakaslam. I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that generally, most good Watchers would try to Watch a likely mafiakill target, to try to catch the person delivering KP. By stating he thought Alakaslam was scum, that obviously wasn't his intention. There is one good reason for a Town Watcher Onegu to target Alakaslam (if anyone knows it, do not say it. It is meaningless unless it comes from him), but if Onegu can't come up with it by the deadline, he's likely either a Mafia Tracker or Mafia Framer. I'm still working on scenarios for our current dilemma, but my Town/Town scenario relies on some outstanding questions I've issued to the moderators. On June 28 2013 18:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote: As it's important to say everything right now, I figured I'll throw these key points out there: IN GENERAL: Tracking Scum makes sense (track the guy you think may take the shot) Watching Townies (NK targets) makes sense (watch the victim and you get the killer's name) Tracking Townies doesn't make sense (as a townie. It obviously makes sense as scum) Watching scum makes sense IN ONE VERY SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCE If our Watcher cannot give us this reason, he obviously did not do it for that reason. And thus, in this instance, his Watch target did not make sense. Alakaslam is claiming to be a Town Tracker. He 'tracked' a scum read. According to the above, this makes sense. Onegu is claiming to be a Town Watcher. He 'watched' a scum read. According to the above, this does not make sense. Even if the two claims weren't incompatible, the play motivation must be considered like this. Regarding the Watcher target: This in a vacuum could be explained by Bad Play, but in conjunction with reports from a Tracker claiming otherwise, it paints a significantly more sinister picture. No one is disputing that Onegu acquired knowledge last night. By some means, he deduced something that likely happened. However, it is not just a Watcher that could have figured that out. Indeed, it is actually MORE LIKELY in this scenario for a Mafia Tracker or a Mafia Framer to figure it out! A mafia Tracker could choose to 'track' a high-profile townie for various reasons A mafia Framer would CERTAINLY choose to follow THE MOST HIGH PROFILE TOWNIE NOT BEING SHOT THAT NIGHT. (If you don't know why, we need to get you back to Mafia School. At the time actions were declared, the Parity Cop was alive. Mafia know that the Cop will check his scummiest read vs. his towniest read. The framer's play is to figure out who is most everyone's towniest read, barring the person who is getting shot that night, and pay them a visit, essentially flipping their alignment and throwing the Parity Cop off course.) Both of these situations could explain how Onegu acquired the knowledge he did, and neither situation conflicts with Alakaslam's story. From the flipside, to claim that 'Slam is lying and scum, while Onegu is Town and a Watcher: Our town Watcher picked scum to watch for the night (sub-optimal use of the power, when there was a very clear target on the board) The Scum Tracker ('slam) tracked a townie who was under significant pressure and likely to be next-day lynched (Onegu) I know assuming optimal play is folly in a newbie game, but I'd like to assume my teammates and opponents aren't this terrible at this. Unless Onegu is a second Town Tracker and randomly lied by saying he's a Watcher, or came up with the luckiest guess in the history of lucky guesses to start today, there is no situation I can think of currently that Onegu is not scum. ------------- IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE TO CORRECT ME IF ANY OF THE ABOVE LOGIC IS WRONG. THESE ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS MY DECISIONS ARE BASED ON, AND IF I AM TO RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW INFORMATION IT WILL TAKE TIME He would have been lynched that day if not for their coach posting this in their QT to bail them out: Sigma Devil: "reveal that in the thread you watched Alakaslam and he was visited by Hurricane then when you have time. Read everything before you respond. If you need help ask your team before you take action. ETA: actually the claim on its own is bad. Hurricane's post sums it up: Watchers want to target their Town reads, Trackers Scum reads. If you had Ala as a Scum read you dont have many logical reasons for Watching him. I thought you claimed to Track him but that was my mistake for speed reading. I'll try to think about a reason you would need to watch Alakaslam as a Town read, and the best I can come up with is you thought he would be framed by his Scum team thinking he would be an investigation target based on Day 1 (Parity Cop). Either way this is a great learning experience as you can now figure out how to argue from bad position. Go for it  ETA: I'll be around for the next hour or so on and off. Ask me anything you need clarification for before posting." Then Onegu parroted the answer to the live thread: On June 28 2013 19:07 Onegu wrote: Sorry I am back, the reason I watched alakaslam was because I had a scum read on him and thought I could confirm it and catch another scum player by who visited him as they would most likely be there to frame him. I tried to think of who would be killed but when I couldnt come up with someone before I slept I went with my next best course of action wich was to try and catch two scum. Also did you confirm you visited alakaslam Hurricane? I am reading amd it looks like you did confirm. I watched Alakaslam and he was visited by my biggest town read in Hurricane. Sorry if I sound bitter. Just pointing out the direct and tangible impact the mafia coach had on the Day 2 lynch. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On July 06 2013 06:03 Xzavier wrote: I learned that i need to work on analyzing alot better. all of my scumhunting is basically OMGUS and make a case on him T.T still pretty fun. been carried twice :D Your analysis and META META META were invaluable to me this game. You solidified Tofu as Town after your death because your town reads are awesome, and since you suck at scumhunting, I got to cross a bunch of people that you thought were Mafia off my list! (Just kidding, love you Xzavier. <3) | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On July 06 2013 06:37 Spicydinosaur wrote: I wouldnt think so. If you are active and scum hunting (or good at faking it) then you'll look town. What would someone say.... that your meta is you're a lurker in 2 newbie games... not a lynchable argument. I wouldnt worry too much unless you think you wont be active because of RL. Then just tell everyone pre-game before alignment goes out so it wont be an issue. That would be the greatest scumplay in the history of mankind. "He's too pro-town to be town. Lynch him." | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On July 06 2013 12:22 Aquanim wrote: Now if only either of us had retained those reads at the end of Night 1... My early poke was on Spicy (and Xzavier) too. I remember we pondered the fact that he was so crazy defensive early. @StiM: I took the leap of faith on you being town when you said this: On June 29 2013 11:09 StiMaDDict wrote: And btw.. God damn it. Onegu was mafia last game. This ain't fair  I know it's not much, but for some reason, I just felt like someone who was in scum chat all game wouldn't say something like this. | ||
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