EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 14
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 04:53 Hurricane Sponge wrote: @hzflank I just went through your filter. You're the only vote on Aqua that I can't explain. You mention yourself in the case you make on him that it's pretty weak, and you were more posting it for his benefit to refute it than as a serious post. To be clear: No one suspects you. Now, everyone is getting his bandwagon ready. I'm wondering if you are still experiencing the lack of conviction on your pick, or if having people jump on board has convinced you? What is your play here? | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 30 2013 09:37 Aquanim wrote: Alakaslam saw Onegu visit you, didn't he? You're not dead, so Onegu wasn't carrying scum KP. Therefore, Onegu has a scum PR. Oh right. You're right. In my head, visiting someone doesn't equal Power Role (but in reality, this only applies to myself). | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
If I die, you can always dive my filter. Nothing has really changed for me except that I don't think StiM is super duper scum. But my main message is for Town to trust their reads. I think everyone here has great reasons for their reads and needs to follow them. Compromise when you think it is appropriate, but I have faith that the current townie skill level exceeds that of the mafia team. If I die, vet your feelings for Aqua carefully. If you come to the conclusion that he is town, move on to the next guy. I think there's a very odd link between Aqua and LoneMeow that deserves looking into. You guys have done your homework on Spicy, so you probably don't need my thoughts on him, but explore relationships there too. Go back and read my posts on Xzavier and fyfy (post-mortem). Read Chromatically's last thoughts. The dead are keys to Town victory. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
To paraphrase an earlier metaphor, I'm with Tofu now. It's time to buy lotto tickets. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:05 hzflank wrote: Don't worry Onegu's gone day 3, 8-1 vote count. Oh btw, Hurricane wont die. If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight. Hurricane is either lynched Day 4, or killed Night 4, and in a few minutes I will tell you why... (I love me some conspiracy, it seems) You OFFICIALLY have my attention. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:11 hzflank wrote: Conspiracy theory time. Why yes, yes I think that it is. It makes for a great set play. If there is an NN then the scum team can potentially convince the town to mislynch their Tracker/Watcher in exchange for the Mafia Framer. Then, when he (Onegu) flips Framer, the scum team will claim that Hurricane must be scum. It is in fact likely that a Framer and Tracker both targeted Hurricane. If you had to pick a target for this play then Hurricane would have been perfect, as his very early post was about NN policy. It would be better for the scum if they knew exactly who the NN was when making this play. Remind me who it was that made a case on day 1 that the NN should claim? Once the scum team got the results of their night actions, they knew that Hurricane was was either NN, JK or tracker. Their next play would depends on whether Hurricane was NN or a good role, so they wanted to uncover this. Remind me who it was that was so eager to know if anyone was roleblocked (inc Jailed)? Onegu claim's but does not name Hurricane. They are still fishing for Hurricane's role. Alakaslam claims Tracker. Hurricane passively claims NN. I wont go into detail, but it's obvious what their next move is if Hurricane was JK. Not relevant though. Since Hurricane is NN, the scum try to secure their day 2 mis-lynch, and they succeed. The town should all be thinking that they will night kill Hurricane Night 2, because he is confirmed town. But they will not nightkill Hurricane, they will try to nightkill me. Town lynches Onegu on day 3. Onegu flips Framer. The scum make a case against Hurricane based on the fact that Onegu flipped Framer. Afterall, what are the chances that on Night one both the Framer and the tracker targetted Hurricane? If they get the day 4 mislynch on Hurricane then they win. If mafia is sophisticated, this is a great play. I'm guessing they're not this good at the game and that I am not long for this world. But even if I'm the shot instead of someone else, I like this theory. Along these lines (of me not thinking the mafia are this good), I think it may be a crap shoot on who takes the shot tonight, not necessarily hz. If neither me nor hz take the shot tonight, this theory still holds some water. Their plan may just not be as elaborate as hz gives them credit. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:29 hzflank wrote: Hurricane: If you do not die, why are they risky targeting a Vet over a known NN? Honestly, I don't think they gave disproportionate consideration to there being a Vet. I know I didn't. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:46 FirmTofu wrote: As a final disclaimer: We should take the reads of whoever dies tonight into special consideration. The mafia actively chose to kill someone because they knew that that person would probably push for a lynch against one of their teammates. For example, if I die, you need to strongly consider lynching Spicy. If Hurricane dies, we should revisit Aquanim's case and consider lynching him. etc. This is actually why I was so clear about my 3-man team. I wanted to make it obvious. If I live, I can only explain it as me being off course. My most likely mis-read? Aquanim. Tonight was all about pressure, and taking the bullet for information. If Aquanim is scum, he is by far the best player on his team. Hopefully, my pressure overrode his objectivity and led to a shot of self-preservation. Honestly, I haven't even read what Aqua has posted in response to my rather ham-fisted burial attempt earlier. Night 2 was all about setting a tone, and I wanted my specific tone to be 'Lynch Scum Aqua'. Whatever information we can glean from that is up for debate, but it was worth a shot. (Puns are a personal weakness, forgive me.) | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 30 2013 11:19 hzflank wrote: Does anyone else think that a shorter day 3 would be better, if the mods allow it? It sets a bad precedent. I know I wouldn't appreciate it if I were scum. They're going to want (and deserve) a fair shot at trying to turn this game around. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 30 2013 11:27 hzflank wrote: I agree that it was a bad idea. But..turn this game around? We have lost 2 green and 2 blues, we have 1 confirmed red but they get another chance for NK after we lynch him. The scum are winning by a very large margin. We have the reads we need to win this thing. Even if we assume they flawlessly NK, it will take a town mis-play for them to win this game. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 30 2013 11:59 Onegu wrote: Just a thought you guys are in lylo now anyway so what does killing me acomplish today other than giving another NK out? Just stop. We're not letting you linger around for a million reasons, not the least of which is getting you out of mafia chat. Please stop insulting our intelligence. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On July 01 2013 00:48 hzflank wrote: Thanks. We have plenty of time We have over 48 hours until I need to get my final thoughts in, so there is no rush. I really wish everyone would take a hard look at how people voted day 2 The important thing is the timing of votes in relation to other people's votes. I see it, too. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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