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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On July 03 2013 04:12 austinmcc wrote:
It's not the proof I want it to be because I can't get an answer to the question "are all 3Ps necessarily town/anti-town."
But it's not PROOF that he's a survivor either, which is how he was trying to spin it earlier, and you seem to be taking it now.
But it does open up the POSSIBILITY that he's anti-town 3P.
On July 03 2013 02:45 austinmcc wrote:
You didn't shoot me on D3 because you can't win with town.
It's only a proof when it's most convenient to you.
By the way, do we have confirmation that austin can't use his role anymore? I forget who said they created it.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On July 03 2013 04:19 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 04:10 kitaman27 wrote:On July 03 2013 04:05 Crossfire99 wrote:On July 03 2013 03:50 gonzaw wrote:
The fact he shot solstice as soon as he claimed Doctor (or WOS claimed for him) which almost single-handily fucked scum, instead of like shooting me or BC or Acro, shows that he's not bullshitting with the TARDIS claim.
If he was traitor, fucking shoot me and let the lynch on solstice go through
If he was SK....then again shoot me or Acro, let town go crazy and shit, maybe misslynch more dudes, etc.
Instead he shot A GUY THAT WAS GETTING LYNCHED
That proves to me he is not SK.
Hell that could prove to me he's not traitor, since he wouldn't know the scumteam's plans by then (if he did he wouldn't have shot solstice to out the whole scumteam, scum would tell him "ehmm dude, why don't you shoot gonzaw or Acro or Xata and leave this D1 misslynch be, okay? Don't wanna get austin lynched".
I mean, unless the TARDIS is a super powerful shit that gives him 100 KP and makes him bulletproof or some shit I doubt kita would do that (if he DOESNT win with town). And if it does....then where is his 100 KP and bulletproof and shit? Gonzaw, I don't think he is a SK. I think he is an anti-town 3rd party. There is also something in role pm mentioning the TARDIS. I agree that's why he shot Solstice. But I disagree saying why would he do that if it hurt mafia. It is day 1, he doesn't know who scum were day 1. In fact he figured it out because of what he did with his shot. Look at what he did from Day 2 on and tell me how that comes from a neutral survivor and not scum-aligned survivor. An anti-town 3rd party that you are describing based on the win conditions listed in the OP has never existed in team liquid mafia history. It doesn't make sense from a game perspective and it doesn't make sense from a balance perspective. You're confusing what a neutral survivor actually means. A neutral survivor isn't neutral to both factions. He is going to pick one faction to win with and one faction to back stab. He win condition is surviving. I had an opportunity at 2v1v1 and I took it. It was an anti-town action to take a join mafia win, but a survivor is not an anti-town alignment and I can still win with town. I'm not saying neutral survivor doesnt choose a side. I'm saying he chooses the side he is most likely to win with. In this case it was town since bc shot scum day 2 and you could have too, but you decided to actively hinder town at every opportunity even though it made no sense to do so.
I got an offer to go into D4 at 2v1v1. That is an automatic victory for me (I didn't consider your vote steal).
Hindsight is 20/20. I did not know that the mafia team consisted of 3 members on day two. I had a strong suspicion that austin was mafia, but I also had a strong suspicion that Sk8r was mafia (we still have no idea what happened to BC's shot refunded shot). Eliminating a likely lynch candidate is a poor move for a survivor. If I was wrong about austin, then I'm in an even worse position than shooting dandel. Sure, if I could do things over that might have given me the greatest shot at winning, but at the time I thought I was doing what would be the best for me.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On July 03 2013 04:26 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 04:23 kitaman27 wrote:
(we still have no idea what happened to BC's shot refunded shot).
Show nested quote +
120
Geript
06-27-2013
07:18 PM ET (US)
yes and yes
119
austinmcc
06-27-2013
07:16 PM ET (US)
Did he kill solstice or rb BC D1? We still don't actually know what either of those things was.
There's a chance BC is actually some kind of 3P or...something. I dunno.
Dis game.
I asked geript about the RB on BC, and whether you were responsible. He said you were. Note that I posted these logs yesterday, when the rb on BC wasn't even mentioned. If I'm the one altering logs, then I had to realize YESTERDAY that the roleblock might come up, and alter logs before it was ever mentioned just to have them in the future.
You would know the roleblock might come up if you were the roleblocker. Is now a good time to point out that the mafia doesn't have a flipped roleblocker in a setup with all blues?
Furthermore, zeph confirmed my role does not have a roleblock. So if I didn't do it, town didn't do it, who did?
Furthermore, even if you didn't rb the bc shot, we have no proof that your role doesn't have any other abilities. It doesn't make sense for a role to just suddenly stop working after day two.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Also, does your 75% calculation take into account that mafia almost certainly have a bus driver or self protect in their pocket?
We've established that I'm not mafia. Therefore, mafia would have no idea what I did to the TARDIS. When I asked if the TARDIS was a worry with my day shot, they flat out replied no. You don't speak in certainty like that unless you know it's not an issue.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Additionally, a roleblock on a vig shot makes no sense for me. I want the game to end sooner, not extend things out. Also, I would have claimed the block for town cred long ago.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On July 03 2013 04:37 Crossfire99 wrote:
He knew who was scum pretty early in this game and he has quoted the numerous posts where he was suspicious of austin and geript. What doesn't make sense is this. Meapak dies and pretty much confirms austin as scum for kita.
If austin was confirmed scum to me, then why wasn't austin confirmed scum to town? I didn't have any additional information. austin was apparently helping out town by passing out vig shots and medics. I had a suspicion that austin could be mafia, but he almost certainly was not confirmed scum to me.
On July 03 2013 04:37 Crossfire99 wrote:
Kita claims survivor because he got too trolly and obvious. Important note here is that he is spamming up the thread with nonsense and playing antitown even though he now knows who scum are and has KP that can deal with them. He know geript and austin are scum.
I do not know geript is scum. I accuse him of being scum for mortal combating me, but that is more an omgus than anything. You're making a huge leap in logic by saying I know the identities of two mafia. I don't have any more information than town has.
On July 03 2013 04:37 Crossfire99 wrote:
Geript challenges him to mortal combat but kita has the TARDIS and can do whatever he wants with it. He could have used the TARDIS to hit austin because he knows geript's ability only protects at night. This would prove that he's 3rd party working with town by killing scum. Instead of this, he kills Dandel and tries to lynch sk8r instead of austin. (Even if he thinks sk8r is scum, he is more sure of austin at this point and has been pushing him previously.)
I thought sk8r was scum just as much as austin. In fact, probably more. Remember that sk8r was my day one lynch and that I banked on the TARDIS confirming my alignment when I passed it to kurumi using the anti-mafia clause. Like I said earlier, shooting austin would have worked out better for me, but hindsight is 20/20. Why didn't you lynch the obvious scum in austin? That doesn't make you some weird anti-town survivor role.
On July 03 2013 04:37 Crossfire99 wrote:
Kita then skates along and never will get nk or lynched because it isn't in scum or town's best interest to do either.
Yes?
On July 03 2013 04:37 Crossfire99 wrote:
But no, Kita shoots Dandel again because Dandel wants Kita dead and has been pushing it relentlessly.
Exactly. Survivor mentality.
Crossfire, a scum aligned 3rd party does not exist. It has never existed. It isn't balanced. It doesn't make sense.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Look at the size of this post.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=390080#2
It contains thousands and thousands of roles.
The simple fact is that an anti-town third party player that can only win with mafia has never existed. It does not exist. It will never exist. The role would be broken. A game is balanced around the assumption that every player has an equal chance of winning. A non-mafia survivor and a survivor mafia have far different win percentages. That is the simple fact.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
gonzaw, give me a percentage of likelihood that you think I've a survivor vs the chances that I'm a third party survivor that can only win with mafia and has to obtain the TARDIS all at once.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
There is a 100% chance that austin in scum.
There is a 100% chance that I win with chance.
gonzaw thinks there is an 85% chance that I'm survivor.
Let's assume there are 5,000 roles in existence (I'm taking a guess but it is in the thousands.)
That means 1/5000 roles are this weird anti-town mafia winning only survivor third party role which comes out to 0.0002 percent.
You never address my point that the role you are suggesting that I am has a different win percentage than other roles by definition. That is not a balanced role and doesn't make sense.
In response to your most recent post, yes I said I wouldn't play anti-town, but of course I want town to see me in good light. It's not like I'm going to open up the game telling town that I'm going to push mislynch after mislynch. In the end, I was doing what I thought was best for myself by eliminating dandel. I have a history with dandel. Check themed game, the game, bastard mafia. He joins games to get me lynched and I join games to roll mafia or third party -_-
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On July 03 2013 05:11 kitaman27 wrote:
There is a 100% chance that austin in scum.
There is a 100% chance that I win with town.
gonzaw thinks there is an 85% chance that I'm survivor.
Let's assume there are 5,000 roles in existence (I'm taking a guess but it is in the thousands.)
That means 1/5000 roles are this weird anti-town mafia winning only survivor third party role which comes out to 0.0002 percent.
You never address my point that the role you are suggesting that I am has a different win percentage than other roles by definition. That is not a balanced role and doesn't make sense.
In response to your most recent post, yes I said I wouldn't play anti-town, but of course I want town to see me in good light. It's not like I'm going to open up the game telling town that I'm going to push mislynch after mislynch. In the end, I was doing what I thought was best for myself by eliminating dandel. I have a history with dandel. Check themed game, the game, bastard mafia. He joins games to get me lynched and I join games to roll mafia or third party -_-
EBWOP
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Keep in mind that coming up with a night action win percentage is impossible because you don't actually know austin's role.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Well I know a way to improve those odds -_-
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I'm not perfect, maybe it was a mistake to not go after mafia targets with my kp earlier and hope for the best. In the end, I am a survivor/TARDIS feeder, and I did what I thought was the most likely way for me to make it to endgame.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
NRA member -> austin shoots gonzaw, or shoots xfire with TARDIS protection
Vet -> austin shoots gonzaw
medic -> austin shoots nonprotected player, or busses the protection and shoots the player
busdriver -> austin shoots the nonbussed player
I must be missing something. Go with the sure thing.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
So what are the odds that the mafia factional kp is 1kp and 1 poisoner per night. One of you two are going to die to the delayed kp and this game is already over :p
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
You still have a chance at 40 filter pages gonzaw. I believe in you.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
This discussion of how the game could have already been won is nice and all, but I'd kinda really like to share town's victory -_-
On July 03 2013 05:10 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 05:04 gonzaw wrote:
I think the fact I don't want this game to go for 72 more hours may have a slight (slight mind you) influence in me wanting to lynch austin I mean if you really want to lynch austin. Sure. I honestly don't understand the way kita has been playing at all if he was just a survivor. But if you seem convinced that he is just a regular old survivor, we can lynch austin.
You seem pretty convinced, right gonzaw? XD
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Err can we maybe speed this process along? 5-6 minutes.
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