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Let's play a game... |
On May 31 2013 05:00 HartnellWill wrote:
##Vote DrTennant. Other than skimming the thread, Tennant's filter is surprisingly empty of anything that would contribute to town. Mostly asking others to do work for him while he sits and waits and gets his postcount up.
And while I'm reading PT2's case right now, it wouldn't be a surprise to see both of them role scum. DrT votes him without saying another word. Sheeping the wagon that isn't him because it isn't him that will get killed if it goes through.
I think this dude is suspicious and given his low activity I would prefer to have him shot unless we see enough of him tonight. We need this dude's reads on JP, Davison, Tom and trout.
Post above could well come from scum cause he keeps himself a backdoor open to switch to trout, and the last sentence he mentions isn't a relevant argument to DrT or PT or both being scum.
His other post is a reply to JDavison's post against Tom.
On June 01 2013 04:19 HartnellWill wrote:
Holy fuck, this game is hard to play without knowing who anybody is.
Wait why start a wagon in the middle of the day? Not even justifying that DrT is town, just saying that TomB4 also looks scummy so we should lynch him just for the fun of it? I don't like that direction at all.
It's easier to justify a lynch on JP than on this dude who keeps himself hard to read with his low activity, he's probably a better target for a bullet. He might just be an amazingly lazy townie, but then I don't see why he'd throw out a few own half-assed reasons instead of just sheeping the wagon.
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Tom so confusing, there exists an explanation where everything he has done makes perfect sense but that explanation is to convoluted and complex to even voice.
I don't think he would be a good shot tonight, and probably not a good lynch tomorrow.
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On June 01 2013 23:50 Baker1986 wrote:
Tom so confusing, there exists an explanation where everything he has done makes perfect sense but that explanation is to convoluted and complex to even voice.
I don't think he would be a good shot tonight, and probably not a good lynch tomorrow.
Something along the lines of "he offered scum straws to grasp onto"?
He came into the thread defending DrT as hard as he could and shouting for a policy lynch, he should not be shot, yeah, rather lynched at some point after JP.
I mean, sure, you could argue that Tom had made the Trout lynch so unattractive with his arguments that people preferred the DrT wagon, but arguing that he had intention to do that is stretched.
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Not really what I was thinking. I'm doing some minor private player profiling, trying to match players in the game to some general behavior patterns of certain styles I've seen commonly on TL Mafia. I'm not doing this publically because even if it isn't trying to guess the identity of players it's somewhat similar as I'm trying to use existing knowledge to predict a player's future actions. I think I may have indicated I'm thinking along these general profile lines when I scolded Hurn at some point.
The idea is that if I make one assumption Tom would fit a profile that would almost certainly explain all his actions from a town point of view, and it's not even a stretch to make this assumption.
I'm treading the waters of almost starting to guess player identities, so I don't want to discuss it much more, and I don't want to defend Tom on it. I don't trust my profiling enough to overrule objectively scummy behavior, so it's mostly irrelevant. I just wanted to point out there exists a possibility Tom is town, and it's not a huge stretch.
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I'll let JP speak for himself, but I find it more likely that MSmith and HW or PT are scum than him. In particular, look at MSmith's posts and try to find where he expressed suspicion of DrT before he voted him. If JP doesn't do anything of his own volition in the next cycle he should definitely be killed-in hindsight, his only posts piggybacked off mine. If he is scum it would certainly suggest that PT is not, but I'm wary about that-seems almost too easy,
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I also find it very unlikely that H3 is scum given how blatant he is with his vote swapping. It's extraordinarily rare that you find a scum who does not care where his vote appears or how many times he shifts it.
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although I may be looking into that too far-what he has posted is pretty bad.
(sorry for triple :p)
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@ Tom
You defended DrT against Smith back then and now you say that Smith might be scum, you were willing to defend Dr but you say you want to keep JP's defense to himself.
In theory there's nothing wrong in defending a guy if you think it's a mislynch, only when you're scared that it will make you look bad. If you think he's town then let us hear your arguments.
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Msmith, PT and H3 are likely not scum.
HW might be, but he should rather be shot.
Most likely it's Tom/JP.
Yes, I think that two scum could defend DrT so hard. In fact, they were like the only two guys in the thread doubting that he's scum IIRC. Everyone else realized that my case was 360 through the legs double backflip slamdunk except for JP and Tom.
/dunked
Disclaimer: I'm not trying to impersonate anyone in particular.
Other scum could be Davis, Eccleston. From most scummy to least scummy. If JP flips red Ecclestone is definitely town since JP attempted to divert my attention from DrT to him during early game.
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You're welcome to kill me, but I certainly won't flip scum.
You defended DrT against Smith back then and now you say that Smith might be scum, you were willing to defend Dr but you say you want to keep JP's defense to himself.
In theory there's nothing wrong in defending a guy if you think it's a mislynch, only when you're scared that it will make you look bad. If you think he's town then let us hear your arguments.
Actually I wasn't really that willing to defend DrT, I only did it because I was annoyed at how bad the arguments were against him. They're still bad, regardless of the result being correct. The only real reason we got that lynch through was because the scum (whoever they are) were incapable of deflecting those arguments. If I were in the shoes of DrT I know for a fact I would put up a much better fight than that. I even said a very similar thing regarding DrT:
On May 30 2013 23:33 TomB4 wrote:
I'm not oblivious, I don't actually think he is scum.
In fact, there are plenty of things he has said that I think make him look quite townish, but I'll let him defend himself.
Also, look at Smith's posts if you don't understand where I'm coming from. You don't find it odd that he literally does not mention DrT until there is already a strong indication that he will be taking a lot of votes?
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and you also have to realize that despite his early posting seeming fine to me, he progressively became worse in my eyes because of his lack of participation and the contradiction between what he said about being in the spotlight and not being around.
If he had actually done something I wouldn't have become so disinterested in his defense halfway through the day. Why do you think I simply stopped pushing the issue after a while? I realized that I wasn't getting anywhere, I was the only one with that opinion, and even the guy I was defending had given up.
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On June 01 2013 19:23 SMcCoy wrote:@ TomI need your exact reasoning for giving JP a townread. He's the next guy I would lynch. All the noise he has been making was always an attempt to shift the lynch away from DrT, I will show it in more detail. @ TheDavisonI want to know why you're not considering JP, and I would like you to comment on the points written in favor of H3 so far. Multiple players have given him townreads, myself included.______________________________________________________________________________________________________ Then, I don't like how this guy joined the wagon, he has basically no other posts of value, and keeps himself the option open to switch to trout should the counterwagon gain steam: Show nested quote +On May 31 2013 05:00 HartnellWill wrote:
##Vote DrTennant. Other than skimming the thread, Tennant's filter is surprisingly empty of anything that would contribute to town. Mostly asking others to do work for him while he sits and waits and gets his postcount up.
And while I'm reading PT2's case right now, it wouldn't be a surprise to see both of them role scum. DrT votes him without saying another word. Sheeping the wagon that isn't him because it isn't him that will get killed if it goes through. Vigi should probably shoot Trout for uselessness, although I would speculate that he's town based on current information. Nonetheless it's better if we take him out of the equation. Hartnelwill might be another viable option cause he's a lurker.
I'm not not considering JP, I need to reread to see what I think of him though. Update on that in a few minutes after I see whats what.
My post ten hours ago was unclear on that point because I am bad at writing things. What it was supposed to suggest was that we should look into the players actively pushing other wagons who ended up on the DrT wagon, those players were H3 and TB4 between those two I wanted to look into TB4 and not H3.
As for H3, I already commented that I think he is town in an earlier post and would be unhappy with lynching him. You may remember that as the post where I tried to start a counter wagon on TB4. And yes, what I did was 100% an attempt to create a counter wagon, I wanted DrT to have reason to post and his probable scum buddies a belief that they could defend him. I don't like easy day one wagons not, like most players, because I think that means the wagon is on scum but because I think we are more likely to learn more by having a contested lynch and an easy one, even on scum, doesn't help as much as a tight run lynch.
I'm reading filters now and will update with reads and reasons when I have them.
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On June 02 2013 04:25 TheDavison wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2013 19:23 SMcCoy wrote:@ TomI need your exact reasoning for giving JP a townread. He's the next guy I would lynch. All the noise he has been making was always an attempt to shift the lynch away from DrT, I will show it in more detail. @ TheDavisonI want to know why you're not considering JP, and I would like you to comment on the points written in favor of H3 so far. Multiple players have given him townreads, myself included.______________________________________________________________________________________________________ Then, I don't like how this guy joined the wagon, he has basically no other posts of value, and keeps himself the option open to switch to trout should the counterwagon gain steam: On May 31 2013 05:00 HartnellWill wrote:
##Vote DrTennant. Other than skimming the thread, Tennant's filter is surprisingly empty of anything that would contribute to town. Mostly asking others to do work for him while he sits and waits and gets his postcount up.
And while I'm reading PT2's case right now, it wouldn't be a surprise to see both of them role scum. DrT votes him without saying another word. Sheeping the wagon that isn't him because it isn't him that will get killed if it goes through. Vigi should probably shoot Trout for uselessness, although I would speculate that he's town based on current information. Nonetheless it's better if we take him out of the equation. Hartnelwill might be another viable option cause he's a lurker. I'm not not considering JP, I need to reread to see what I think of him though. Update on that in a few minutes after I see whats what. My post ten hours ago was unclear on that point because I am bad at writing things. What it was supposed to suggest was that we should look into the players actively pushing other wagons who ended up on the DrT wagon, those players were H3 and TB4 between those two I wanted to look into TB4 and not H3. As for H3, I already commented that I think he is town in an earlier post and would be unhappy with lynching him. You may remember that as the post where I tried to start a counter wagon on TB4. And yes, what I did was 100% an attempt to create a counter wagon, I wanted DrT to have reason to post and his probable scum buddies a belief that they could defend him. I don't like easy day one wagons not, like most players, because I think that means the wagon is on scum but because I think we are more likely to learn more by having a contested lynch and an easy one, even on scum, doesn't help as much as a tight run lynch. I'm reading filters now and will update with reads and reasons when I have them.
I agree with this a lot.
It's particularly a problem that the players who are most likely to be scum are going to be overlooked until either I die or the shift in attention moves away from me (and JP too if he is also town). If scum were incapable of defending their own on day 1 they almost certainly have not done much so far.
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PT is still a nothing, I think its unlikely he is scum with his play so far simply because there was a scum up for lynch and he did a whole lot of nothing to prevent that. His entire play has been a small bit of roleplay and a vote on H3 in the space fo four minutes. I disagree with the idea of vigging him because, well, because I think it likely he is town. I need more content from him in the next cycle but he is both a bad vig shot and a bad lynch.
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Msmith looks townie as well, his push on DrT feels right. In fact the only thing I don't like about Smith, and the reason I just read his filter, is his screaming for the flip in the twilight zone. That is an easy scum tactic to make people think that you are excited and scared for the flip as a good townie should be. On rereading him though I think he was just excited and scared for the flip like a good townie.
Next up: Hwill
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Actually this is interesting, there was a time on page 7-8 where Trout was leading in votes four to three by my count. It was at that time when HWill came in and voted DrT bringing him to four as well. While I was feeling bad on the Hwill voting I really like his timing. I think a scum coming into the thread at that time would try to push the trout lynch and, with a few reasoned arguments could probably actually sway people.
Feeling better about Hwill after that read. I'd suggest everyone go look at page 7 and 8 actually.
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They're still bad, regardless of the result being correct.
Funny logic
If scum were incapable of defending their own on day 1 they almost certainly have not done much so far.
The only wagons available were H3, but most read him as town, even DrT IIRC.
Davison tried to start a wagon on you (and you just praised him for it).
And the last wagon was on Trout.
The only wagon scum hoped or attempted to push was the wagon on Trout. Every other wagon they can't have paid attention to. All of the resistance against the DrT lynch came from the trout wagon, from you and JP. There's also the guy I'm asking to be shot who kept himself a backdoor open to vote for trout.
That wagon was the last resort for scum to save their scumbuddy, and thus every guy who tried to push it or announced he would jump on it if possible while DrT was under pressure should be a prime suspect. And the scummiest pusher of that wagon is JP so far, and you the close second, although I must admit that you exudate confidence from every pore, props to your play if you are scum but your choices speak another language.
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lol why are people still bitching about an easy d1wagon if we caught scum?
I think tom is really town. He has written so much and gone really in depth about his thought process.
Scum is between pt, pf, ec, td.
Don't shoot pt (thats the rper right?) cause he prob gonna get modkilled.
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Anyway, I don't want to be exceedingly tunnelly towards you, Tom. I'll have a closer look at smith, my priority remains to lynch JP though. I feel my two case posts raise good points against him.
His defense of DrT wasn't consistent with his intentions, and what he mentions there is that mistake that should not have happened if he looked at DrT's posts with the intention to find scummy posts, not posts to defend him.
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On June 02 2013 04:59 Hurndall3 wrote:
lol why are people still bitching about an easy d1wagon if we caught scum?
I think tom is really town. He has written so much and gone really in depth about his thought process.
Scum is between pt, pf, ec, td.
Don't shoot pt (thats the rper right?) cause he prob gonna get modkilled.
Who's pf?
What do you think about JP and Hartnell? Yesterday you gave JP a 53 % chance of him being scum, it should now be around 99 %.
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On June 02 2013 05:10 SMcCoy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2013 04:59 Hurndall3 wrote:
lol why are people still bitching about an easy d1wagon if we caught scum?
I think tom is really town. He has written so much and gone really in depth about his thought process.
Scum is between pt, pf, ec, td.
Don't shoot pt (thats the rper right?) cause he prob gonna get modkilled. Who's pf? What do you think about JP and Hartnell? Yesterday you gave JP a 53 % chance of him being scum, it should now be around 99 %.
by pf i meant JP LOL. Add hartnell to the list of possible scum also. I forgot about him.
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EPT
