WoS

I'm on my phone right now. I'm going to be totally free tomorrow evening and I'm gonna put in some work on the filters. I want to win this game.

I feel good that you are town, at the very least. Am I town to you?

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 13:42 GMT

#2391

so lynching scum puts us at either 4-2-1 or 3-3-1 depending on if there are 3 or 4 scum

lynching SK puts us at at either 5-3 or 4-4(game over)

that first line seems better. we are fine at 4-2-1, and 3-3-1 sucks but at least the game isn't over.

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 13:52 GMT

#2396

How much of a chance does an SK have in a 3-3-1 marv?

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 14:35 GMT

#2401

yea the JK or RB camping dandel is pretty important to factor in to the equation

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 14:36 GMT

#2402

It technically shouldn't matter WoS, until the JK and RB are gone, they are respectively going to block his KP when the situation warrants him shooting the corresponding side

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 15:08 GMT

#2407

If the scum KP is on the JK, does his protect still go through for the night?

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 15:27 GMT

#2409

presuming the existence of a roleblocker and a jailkeeper, will a roleblocked jailkeeper's protection still go through

seems like there isn't a consensus, but up to the host no?

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 16:37 GMT

#2440

At least for this lynch, it will break down like this as I see it. We can be reasonably sure on the JK, dunno about the RB right now I guess. With the mod answer though, it doesn't look like the JK's prot for tonight can be blocked anyway.

for 6-3-1:
-lynch scum-->6-2-1-->scum and SK must kill town-->JK blocks SK-->5-2-1
-lynch SK--> 6-3 --> 5-3 after the NK
-mislynch town --> 5-3-1 --> scum kills town, SK must kill town to avoid 4-2-1 --> 4-3-1 if JK alive, 3-3-1 if not

for 5-4-1:
-lynch scum --> 5-3-1 --> scum kills town, SK must kill town to avoid 4-2-1 --> 4-3-1 with JK block on SK
-lynch SK --> 5-4 --> 4-4 after NK and game is over
-mislynch town --> we are fucked

so lynching scum today gives us either 5-2-1 or 4-3-1 for tomorrow. 4-3-1 is a loss for town I think...it would lead to 4-2-1 after the lynch, and then either a 3-2-1 or a 2-2-1 depending on if the JK is still alive. Neither of these can result in a town win. 5-2-1 is a winnable situation for town...we get a free SK lynch, and a 4-2 after the following NK.

lynching SK gives us a flat out 5-3, or a loss. If there are 4 mafia, they are going to be all about lynching the SK right now.

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 16:38 GMT

#2441

if its 5-4-1 I think we are fucked regardless.

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 16:41 GMT

#2445

oh right I forgot the JK can block mafia KP

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 16:57 GMT

#2451

Marv you seemed pretty convinced there are 4. Why?

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 18:03 GMT

#2468

is the scum KP factional? or is it assigned to one member of the scum team to carry out? if the latter, can a presumed jailkeeper stop the kill by jailing the member of the scum team performing the kill?

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 18:22 GMT

#2470

when you say rayn, i assume you are talking about vayne...yes DP?

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 20:01 GMT

#2474

If we lynch scum today and not Dandel, he has to shoot town so as to avoid a 4-2-1 situation where he gets lynched for free. With the JK blocking him, it doesn't matter anyway, and we are at 4-3-1...and then we continue down the tree Marv wrote out earlier...and then probably lose

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 24 2013 20:42 GMT

#2480

Vayne, he was a parity cop. He died too early to get us any information whatsoever.

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 25 2013 21:01 GMT

#2554

in the middle of a longer post now, but I have to comment....holy shit/wtf

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 25 2013 21:03 GMT

#2556

Sooo he knew he was on top of the chopping block to be lynched...and claimed SK to buy himself another/many days if we could be sold on keeping the SK alive.

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 25 2013 21:10 GMT

#2558

Or rather, claiming SK ensured that we would be lynching scum when we should have been lynching SK. Instead of having a chance at 5-4 tonight, we are now looking at 4-3-1 with a successful JK save.

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 25 2013 21:33 GMT

#2560

Here now, caught up.

I did put in work on the filters like I promised, but all I came out of it with was town reads that I felt good about. I wasn't sure that was even worth sharing, given our situation. It's been pretty difficult to get motivated knowing that our chances for winning are on a wing and a prayer with the lucky JK save. I've looked some more though, and I do have something.

I feel good about WoS and Stutters being town. These two have shown consistent interest in still trying to solve the game, even with our chances being bleak.

With that flip, I really think DP and Marv are scum. I've about had it with the 'I'm town because X said so' argument. Marv and DP have been guilty of this repeatedly. Think of it like this..what is the point of even saying that? We are at a point where everyone needs to be re-evaluating town reads, because nobody is having an easy time finding a place for the scum team to fit on their spreadsheets. Everyone who is town at this should no longer be satisfied with 'Marv is town because iamp and BH said so,' or Marv saying 'I'm town, it's so obvious.' It's not good enough....we are well past the time of free passes. If you want to convince somebody that somebody else, or you, is town, reasoning needs to be provided. These two don't seem to care to provide any.

I think GK is scum, or potentially the SK. He started the game with cases on grush and stutters (lurkers at that point), a terrible meta case on JJ, and most of the stuff he has taken a stance on (especially the most recent stuff) he has folded on like origami. He's pushed nothing, and really comes off like even he doesn't believe what he is saying.

s0Lstice

United States1832 Posts

May 26 2013 02:14 GMT

#2562

WoS you around?

I think I had it earlier when I said that scum sacrificed one of their own to put us at 3-3-1 going in to tomorrow. It's 4-3-1 with a JK save, but either way we are pretty much fucked. 4-3-1 is basically unwinnable too.

SO much weird shit in this game. Not exactly a good welcome back game for me lol.