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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 24 2013 22:42 s0Lstice wrote: Or 4-3-1 if DL doesn't shoot. Would he rather be @ 4-3-1 or 3-3-1?so lynching scum puts us at either 4-2-1 or 3-3-1 depending on if there are 3 or 4 scum | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:14 marvellosity wrote: Unless there's 4 scum in which case we lose the game.This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 25 2013 00:31 Promethelax wrote: Am I missing something marv? Mafia RBing JK wont hurt since DL would still get blocked correct?If both Roleblocker and Jailkeeper exist, No. However a Roleblocked Jail Keeper's Roleblock will still go through. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:29 marvellosity wrote: look at the numbers, i'm assuming dandel's shot doesn't go through every night. mafia still has a shot. So then what did you mean by this: On May 25 2013 01:22 marvellosity wrote: Did you miss the ruling? Because it really seems like you're saying whatever you can to have us take the one course of action that can immediatelty lose us the game.Anyway, just one more numbers ramble. Say we're on 5-4-1 right now, and we choose to lynch mafia, and say we have a jailkeeper. Jailkeeper autoroleblocks Dandel to save us from 1 kp per night lynch mafia -> 5-3-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 4-3-1 lynch mafia -> 4-2-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 3-2-1 lynch mafia -> 3-1-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 2-1-1 lynch mafia -> 2-0-1, roleblock SK, win! The problem with this scenario is that it magically assumes that mafia will manage not to hit OR roleblock the jailkeeper for 3 consecutive cycles. Now, if we lynch the SK at 5-4-1 lynch SK -> 5-4-0, jailkeeper has to get one hero roleblock/jail and destiny is back in town's hands. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:58 marvellosity wrote: You say "The problem with this scenario is that it magically assumes that mafia will manage not to hit OR roleblock the jailkeeper for 3 consecutive cycles."what am i missing? what are you not understanding??????? But according to the ruling above, mafia roleblocking the JK won't stop DL from getting blocked. Am I reading something wrong? | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
So we're pretty much just crossing our fingers that there's only 3 mafia. In which case, the smart play is killing DL cause he's gonna shoot @ town. ##vote: Dandel Ion | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 25 2013 13:39 WaveofShadow wrote: It's interesting you say that; is it marv's thing to have to carry the town? It's pretty evident town needs somebody to take the lead atm but I certainly don't trust my reads enough to do it (especially since scum always leave me alive towards LYLO and I lose the game then). If marv doesn't kick it into gear as you say, do you suspect him of being scum? I do know that a lot of my conversations with him haven't exactly been fruitful but I have no way of knowing if that's by design or the fact that we just don't have answers right now. I think that if there's 4 scum then Marv is most likely one of em. But it doesn't really matter because we lose. My top scum read is darthpunk and then I guess grush. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 25 2013 14:49 DarthPunk wrote: See stuff like this is why I think you're scum. This is the 2nd time you said untrue stuff to try and make me look bad. The first was when you talked about my meta. Please explain what you mean by "all he has done is sheep the popular lynches" because that's completely untrue. Pretty good. Day one I wanted to lynch him but was convinced by s0lstice that he should be given time to contribute. Then all he has done is sheep the popular lynches whilst making a weak as shit case/push on me who should be read as town even though i got lazy after the blazinghand lynch. Also can you tell me why you "should be read as town"? | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 25 2013 22:25 DarthPunk wrote: I didn't "go along" w/ the BH lynch. He was my top scumread up untill he was lynched. This has been discussed as I'm sure you know. Saying that I sheeped the BH lynch is a lie.Well is it untrue? you went along with the BH lynch even though it was being pushed HARD by your number one scum read. now you are going along with the DI lynch even though your number one scum read is pushing for a DI lynch. And despite talking about me being your number one scum read for a while you actually haven't pushed for my lynch at all. And I'm voting DL today simply because of the math as has also been discussed. It's not a sheep if it's basically the only choice there is. And when would I have pushed for your lynched? Like I sad, BH was my my top scumread and we have to lynch DL today. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
Solstice, are you trying to say that scum would actually prefer to get one of their own lynched instead of the SK? That's insane. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 26 2013 12:33 WaveofShadow wrote: Marv pointed out all the math. Like a bunch of us were discussing whether or not it would have been a better play to try and lynch scum instead of DL. Marv was the one who explained exactly why that was a worse play.Are you fucking kidding me right now JJD? He didn't have to do shit to keep DI in the noose. You think it was because of marv that the vote to lynch him was unanimous? | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
I still think grush is most likely scum. Check out this last post from him: On May 26 2013 03:57 grush57 wrote: @ the time it just seemed like he was just pretty much posting w/o actually reading the thread which I don't think surprised anyone, but look @ his previous post:Sigh I guess it's too late, I'm not totally sure Dandel is scum but whatever On May 24 2013 08:46 grush57 wrote: He obviously knew that DL had claimed SK. I think that last post was a slip.Dandel Ion is sk so we should lynch him over mafia right? | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 28 2013 10:01 s0Lstice wrote: I find it strange that you'd say this and then vote for me since I've been saying that I think GK is town all game. It can't be a coincidence that just about everyone in this game has wanted to kill GK at some point. This is just a guess, but my gut tells me that he is the SK, and the scum team pegged him early. The best way for them to deal with the SK is to lynch him, for obvious reasons....hence all the heat he has been getting from all sides. Like, this is cleary Soltice just putting his vote on the townie that is most likely to be mislynched. I'm gonna reread a bunch tomorrow but I don't really recall him saying I've been scummy @ all this game. Like, can anyone actually read soltices filter and figure out the reason he's voting for me? | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 28 2013 11:18 VayneAuthority wrote: the mafia is just being too obvious here, can it get more obvious that my team of WoS/s0lstice/GK is the remaining scum? Vayne, I doubt that all 3 scum would pile on the same target w/ nobody else voting for me. I think WoS legit believes that I'm scum, he's been on me all game. I'm pretty sure solstice is scum though and is just piling on me, this is who I'd prefer we lynch today. And as for GK, I think that if he's not town, he's SK. Obviously I'd rather he get lynched then myself but if we lynch the sk, there's a good chance we lose the game. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 28 2013 13:19 WaveofShadow wrote: Like, look at this shit. When did he EVER mention Solstice before this point? On May 28 2013 13:24 WaveofShadow wrote: Well, I'm not gonna flip red. I'm gonna flip green and the game will be over. Now obviously me telling you this isn't gonna make a difference to you. But think about it logically:Actually, that's pretty interesting. WARNING: PRE-FLIP ASSOCIATION Very easy upon his red flip to give Solstice easy towncred with the reverse suspicion. Completely distanced himself from Solstice all game and solstice himself flip-flops constantly throughout the game as to whether or not JJD is town or scum. Hmmmm. What you're saying makes sense. If soltice and I were both scum, him jumping on my wagon for seemingly no reason and then me subsequently calling him out about it would seem like a decent play for us to make if we thought there was a good chance I'd be lynched today. I understand why you'd make that association. But also my post makes sense. If I'm town and Soltice is scum, doesn't it look like he's just trying to wagon the mislynch? Like I said, s0lstice has given very little reason for voting me. In either scenario, there is just no way s0lstice is town. Lynch him today so we don't autolose. If you still think I'm his scumbuddy tomorrow then we'll talk about it then. But @ least the game wont be over. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
The Dandel lynch - I remember thinking @ the time that there was no way solstice was scum since he was arguing on my side in that we should consider lynching for scum instead of the "SK". Obviously scum is not gonna argue against killing the SK. And S0lstice clearly knows that as he posted recently: On May 28 2013 10:01 s0Lstice wrote: So after DLs flip it seem, you would think that the people that were arguing for his lynch would look good, that's the main reason I backed off DP. But s0sltice goes off on marv and DP:WoS-- It can't be a coincidence that just about everyone in this game has wanted to kill GK at some point. This is just a guess, but my gut tells me that he is the SK, and the scum team pegged him early. The best way for them to deal with the SK is to lynch him, for obvious reasons....hence all the heat he has been getting from all sides. From this point onward, the moment scum can get the SK in the noose, they win. On May 26 2013 06:33 s0Lstice wrote: and he tries to somehow imply that scum would want to lynch scum for some reason.With that flip, I really think DP and Marv are scum. I've about had it with the 'I'm town because X said so' argument. Marv and DP have been guilty of this repeatedly. Think of it like this..what is the point of even saying that? We are at a point where everyone needs to be re-evaluating town reads, because nobody is having an easy time finding a place for the scum team to fit on their spreadsheets. Everyone who is town at this should no longer be satisfied with 'Marv is town because iamp and BH said so,' or Marv saying 'I'm town, it's so obvious.' It's not good enough....we are well past the time of free passes. If you want to convince somebody that somebody else, or you, is town, reasoning needs to be provided. These two don't seem to care to provide any. On May 26 2013 11:44 s0Lstice wrote: WoS did you read what I wrote? 431 is better for scum than a potential 5-4. Dandel claims sk thus forcing us to lynch scum when we should have lynched sk. On May 26 2013 12:52 s0Lstice wrote: He's since backed off this though since it was pointed out to him how backwards his logic is here and since he wasn't getting support for a Marv lynch, he decided to jump on me instead. So it makes sense that s0lstice would try and turn it around like that since he was one of the people looking to keep DL alive. And yes I realize that I was doing the same thing but there's a difference. First of all, I didn't try to imply that people pushing DLs lynch were scummy after the fact. ANd I think I was pretty clear w/ my motivations. I said that I thought was mistake to lynch the SK because of the fact that we could lose immediately. I was the first person to bring it up. And then when marv pointed out how we still lose even if we lynch scum, I conceded the point. Go back and see how s0lstice reacted through the whol DL thing. @ first he says we have to lynch him but he's immediately fishing to see if he can push for someone else...and he would have done the same thing as scum, because he knew Dandel was lying and it was a bad lynch for town. On May 24 2013 06:26 s0Lstice wrote: I think we have to lynch him. We have no assurance he won't hit town tomorrow and end the game for us, oddly enough. It's just like the BH day, where our target was there the entire day and killed all other discussion. On May 24 2013 06:35 s0Lstice wrote: Marv you know Dandel better than I do. I'm not certain he can be trusted to do the optimal thing an SK would do in any given situation. I mean if he goes full on troll...it may be better to remove him from the game ASAP. Gotta think on it. So after marv answers him: On May 24 2013 06:35 marvellosity wrote: [This is blatantly obvious. He shot town last night when he should have been shooting mafia. So he decides to not only vote him, but he gets into it w/ him: On May 24 2013 08:12 s0Lstice wrote: like wtf were you even doing this game dandel your lack of caring makes me sad ##vote dandel ion On May 24 2013 08:17 s0Lstice wrote: You created the situation where we would want to "comfortably lynch you" all by yourself. On May 24 2013 08:29 s0Lstice wrote: Yea, I don't like your style at all, and I'm happy that our best move from here on is to kill you first <3 thanks for asking On May 24 2013 08:34 s0Lstice wrote: also I'm kind of wondering if you killed Spicy, looking for the JK On May 24 2013 08:42 s0Lstice wrote: You can outright say whatever you want, it's not like anyone is going to contest you. So I then go ahead and make my post saying that I didn't think lynching the SK was a good idea. On May 24 2013 21:55 JarJarDrinks wrote: OK, I get that everyone respects and listens to marv, but I think he's wrong here. Lynching the SK is a bad play. If we lynch DL then we're crossing our fingers that there's only 3 scum. Otherwise we lose to the NK. Now marv already acknowledged that in his analysis. Now first off this math is wrong. After nightkills it doesn't go to 4-1-1 or 3-2-1. It goes to 4-2-1 or 3-3-1. But I don't even think that's what would happen, for 2 reasons: 1. I don't think DL can afford to shoot town and risk it going to 3-3-1. That gives way too much power to mafia and he almost surely can't win. I think he either has to shoot mafia or not shoot @ all 2. Wouldn't mafia shoot @ DL? They don't really differentiate between non-scum. Doesn't it make sense that they shoot @ the guy who has KP and will almost surely not get protection? And then like marv said, if it's 6-3-1 then we're fine either way. The only issue is that we have to be pretty positive that we're lynching scum today. That's the only way we guarantee that we don't lose the game on this lynch. Like I said, I know this doesn't look good for me in hindsight but what I posted made sense @ the time. I just hadn't thought the situation all the way through plus I didn't realize the whole bulletproof thing. But @ the very least, I was consistant. S0lstice had made a ton of posts "arguing" w/ DL and said a few times how lynching him was our best move. But as soon as I made my post, he immediately jumped on the chance to get him out of the noose: On May 24 2013 22:42 s0Lstice wrote: so lynching scum puts us at either 4-2-1 or 3-3-1 depending on if there are 3 or 4 scum lynching SK puts us at at either 5-3 or 4-4(game over) that first line seems better. we are fine at 4-2-1, and 3-3-1 sucks but at least the game isn't over. On May 25 2013 01:37 s0Lstice wrote: And that last line there make's it even worse that he went and accused marv and DP after the flip.At least for this lynch, it will break down like this as I see it. We can be reasonably sure on the JK, dunno about the RB right now I guess. With the mod answer though, it doesn't look like the JK's prot for tonight can be blocked anyway. for 6-3-1: -lynch scum-->6-2-1-->scum and SK must kill town-->JK blocks SK-->5-2-1 -lynch SK--> 6-3 --> 5-3 after the NK -mislynch town --> 5-3-1 --> scum kills town, SK must kill town to avoid 4-2-1 --> 4-3-1 if JK alive, 3-3-1 if not for 5-4-1: -lynch scum --> 5-3-1 --> scum kills town, SK must kill town to avoid 4-2-1 --> 4-3-1 with JK block on SK -lynch SK --> 5-4 --> 4-4 after NK and game is over -mislynch town --> we are fucked so lynching scum today gives us either 5-2-1 or 4-3-1 for tomorrow. 4-3-1 is a loss for town I think...it would lead to 4-2-1 after the lynch, and then either a 3-2-1 or a 2-2-1 depending on if the JK is still alive. Neither of these can result in a town win. 5-2-1 is a winnable situation for town...we get a free SK lynch, and a 4-2 after the following NK. lynching SK gives us a flat out 5-3, or a loss. If there are 4 mafia, they are going to be all about lynching the SK right now. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
##Vote: Goodkarma I don't really want to vote him. I agree that he's most likely SK. But I do know that if I get lynched it's definately game. gonna respond to stuff soon. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 29 2013 03:52 WaveofShadow wrote: Okay, marv already touched on this but I'll add: are you kidding me? Please answer marvs question: should I have just left my vote on BH?Here's one right off the bat. Read this and then this. He's SO SURE about BH forever and wants to make his read look genuine in spite of the claim. Only when he feels thread sentiment is changing does he get worried and feel that he has to remove his vote. No explanation besides 'welp no one else is voting BH so i'd better not either!' Here's another: Well it's dumb of me to defend my read of spicy @ this point but you're writing off the CnP thing as no big deal when several people agreed w/ me about it. And I still to this point don't understand how people are ok w/ grush.I commented at the time on how horrible this post is. One out of the three is someone he hasn't even mentioned yet. DP - dumb but whatever, he explained it. The Spicy push makes no sense here to me at all based on the simple reasoning of his copy and paste mistake. Furthermore he only really explains himself ONCE AGAIN when asked. Looks here like a weak attempt to provide random reads to get town off his back, which it didn't. As for you and Marv having a feeling about me: well, there's not much I can say to that. I get that my reads have not been good this game, but bad reads <> scum. | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 29 2013 06:18 marvellosity wrote: Lol, you were voting for a townie as well. Don't lump me in with the people voting GK. I said several times I didn't think he was a good lynch. I had no choice since I obviously wasn't gonna vote for myself.now we (i say we, you other people) lynched a townie, the SK literally must hit mafia or he just loses as well I think you've had me fooled this whole game marv. I gave you alot of credit for the DL thing, but you're supposed to have a good repuation @ finding scum. I find it hard to believe that on day 4, you managed to lead the town behind 2 townie wagons. And yes, despite where your vote landed, you were a big part of getting GK lynched. @SK, if you shoot me like marv wants, mafia wins the game. | ||
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