|
your only reaction was this:
On May 17 2013 11:15 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Before anything interesting happens with Oats, I'd just like to add as a side-note that I'm not updating the spreadsheet until my next session of analysis. Just in case any of my reads change, it won't be reflected in the May 16 column.
Thank you and good night.
And then the vote. also, it was clear that several people were voting him because he used absolute movements instead of relative. However, you never mentioned that you used only absolute movements as well. Why not?
|
On May 21 2013 06:33 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2013 06:24 phagga wrote:your only reaction was this: On May 17 2013 11:15 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Before anything interesting happens with Oats, I'd just like to add as a side-note that I'm not updating the spreadsheet until my next session of analysis. Just in case any of my reads change, it won't be reflected in the May 16 column.
Thank you and good night. And then the vote. also, it was clear that several people were voting him because he used absolute movements instead of relative. However, you never mentioned that you used only absolute movements as well. Why not? I used relative as well. I turned left, then from that reference frame I moved two right and 1 up. Up being forward.
This does not make sense.
THIS DOES NOT MAKE SENSE
If left was relative, how do you know that moving right from your new view angle is not identical with going up? You can't, unless you already knew your position.
Example: you start looking up. Now you give in the new relative movement "face left", which makes you turn your view by 90 degree. This makes you face left on the board as well. From that reference model you say "move two right and 1 up". Problem: Moving right is now the same as moving up.
So either everything was absolute, or you had to have prior knowledge of your position.
|
ok wait, you DID move exactly the way I just described.
WTF?
|
like, I would never expect you to go forward for writing "up"?
|
Ok, now I feel like a complete moron.
##Unvote
|
On May 21 2013 06:25 mkfuba07 wrote:
Dear god, hope you're alright, sentinel! :o
Phagga, why vote sentinel over oats?
I basically wanted to check for reactions.
I'm confused right now, need to sleep over this.
for now (and until I've fully read and understood Sentinels case):
##Vote: Oatsmaster
|
Sentinel and Oats, if decon is scum and I am town, you guys are either suspecting each other for the last scum or mkfuba. Which is it and why?
mkfuba, what is your take on all of this?
|
On May 21 2013 10:05 Oatsmaster wrote:
##Vote: Deconduo
Im town, Phagga is town cause he doesnt fucking play like this as scum in the SLIGHTEST.
How do I play as scum?
|
On May 21 2013 15:09 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2013 14:56 phagga wrote:On May 21 2013 10:05 Oatsmaster wrote:
##Vote: Deconduo
Im town, Phagga is town cause he doesnt fucking play like this as scum in the SLIGHTEST.
How do I play as scum? AFAIK, you play way more passively and 'quiet' This feels like nomination, where you posted good shit that helped you to not get lynched? yeah. I think you didnt get lynched
Interesting.
I've never been scum. I rolled town in every game so far. So it's interesting that you can conclude that I'm town for meta reasons. And my normal town meta so far was "scummily lurk around the first few days without taking stances".
I'm still interested in who the second scum is in your opinion.
|
Getting me checked was an idea I had 5 minutes before lynch, as you can see in thread. I thought a lot about how to abuse the setup to towns favor yesterday, but did not come up with any good idea. Then suddenly I thought that deconduo might be able to check several people at once, and that we should use the opportunity. So I asked him in-thread if that was indeed true (I only saw later that he already wrote so in his initial claim). After he answered I told him where I move and hoped he had time to resend his movement. I did not think it through, I just thought that on the off-chance that Oats is town, we'd get 2 confirmed towns. When I told deconduo where I was moving, I did not even know if he would have the time to send the new movements to the host before deadline.
Now, what would have happened if he had not checked me, but only Oats and Oats is indeed town? Oats gets a green stamp. With Oats and decon seeing me as town, we would have lynched you or Sentinel. So what exactly would I have gained that I did not have before?
I was so obvious town in this game that if I would be indeed scum and Oats gets confirmed town, I probably could have gotten mkfubar or Sentinel misslynched.
Now you want to hinge this lynch on one single action around the deadline last night that could have come from a townie? I have not seen any mentioning of my name in your filter, nor any analysis of Oats, do you have any other reasons to believe I'm scum? Or what exactly in Oats play makes you think he is town while I am not?
On May 21 2013 18:01 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +Next, given that I (pretty much) believe deconduo's claim, why in the hell is he alive? Sure, killing a confirmed townie in Zephirdd is good, but killing a DT that can still make checks seems better. So this leaves a few options: either deconduo is scum (which I doubt), scum were willing to throw away oats for almost nothing (also doubt - they had two entire nights to kill deconduo if they felt it necessary), or they gained something from this check. This brings me around to why phagga felt it would be better to get oats AND himself checked in the same night.
This actually makes a lotta sense. ##Unvote
##Vote: PhaggaI am possibly wrong about the meta thing considering that phagga has never played scum. What I was basing my read off of was the fact that he hasnt been lurky and shit and has been active, but all that stuff isnt really alignment indicative. Like confirmed townies are absolutely the worst thing for the scumteam near lylo, so why wouldnt they kill deconduo? So he can confirmed Phagga. ahhhh
You fail at logic. If they killed deconduo and left zephirdd alive, Zeph would have been confirmed town at lylo. If anything, killing Zeph makes a ton more sense because he was already confimred, while people where doubting deconduos claim. Also, Zeph called me town several times and wanted Oats dead, while decon never spoke as town of me before the deadline.. If I was scum and Oats town, would I not want someone at lylo that sees me as town and Oats as scum? Which is exactly what Zephirdd thought about us.
Actually, a lot of the recently killed thought like that. Let's have a look:
On May 19 2013 04:56 Blazinghand wrote:
if I die some last reads
oats scum regardless of ffyt flip
zeph still town
make people talk
I scuttle 5 feet left while looking straight
On May 21 2013 04:29 ghost_403 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Random thoughts:
I'm still not quite sure what to make of Dec's roleclaim. It does fit in well with the lore, but it seems surprisingly underpowered. Especially with the Doctor's ability to confirm people as town via his screwdriver. I have a lot of questions about this.
Zepph is town. If he's not, I'm giving him the game.
Sentinel has been playing badly all game thus far. He's been remarkably flip-floppy on nearly everything. Super unimpressed by his play.
fuba has completely blended into the background. I haven't made any notes on him since the beginning of the game. Rereading his filter, the only thing really of note is the fact that his flashlight went out. I have no idea what to make of that.
And I think Oats is scum.If dec isn't dead tonight, spend a lot of time looking at him tomorrow. There's something off there. Not gonna be back before the deadline. In the unlikely event that you guys change your minds, I'm moving 4 left tonight. {gg gl hf}
On May 19 2013 08:09 Zephirdd wrote:+ Show Spoiler +In case people didn't realize it, I am a vigilante and I just shot sharrant. I guess I was wrong -_- I'm River Song. Fluff says I met the doctor on the wrong order blablabla and I have a bullet, which I just spent. Breadcumbs on first post: I could have a gun and point my flashlight to an angel, but I would not know it unless I had knowledge of my own handle(the letter on the board). Also, A and B are town. Like, A and B are confirmed town. Which means we don't lynch oats nor deconduo. That's how I'm interpreting it at least; or does puppets show as green to lanterns? A = deconduo GREEN B = oats GREEN C = phagga F = Sentinel G = Zephirdd H = ghost I = mkfuba which leaves Sentinel, ghost and mkfuba.
On May 21 2013 03:43 Zephirdd wrote:
Mkfuba is probably town due to the flashlight thing. Many people called me town on day 1 and I was the first target for the blind thing, so it looks like a scum ability. Does not confirm him tho.
If I die, prime targets should be oats and in case ghost is town, sentinel. Oats has been really useless and sentinel is just elimination process imo. Phagga and deconduo are better nk's IMO but deconduo can be wifom'd(hint hint he is town trust him) and phagga has not confirmed himself like I did.
See you all in 4hrs or so if I survive.
All these people thought that Oats is scum, and some thought that I am town. All are dead. Now let's check deconduos post before deadline:
On May 21 2013 04:55 deconduo wrote:
I'm pretty much dead tonight, so I'll give a quick summary of my thoughts:
If ghost isn't scum I'll be pretty fucking surprised.
If Zeph isn't town I'll be pretty fucking surprised. Listen to him if you are going to listen to anyone.
I thought oats was scum initially after his scumslip, but why would he be so willing to be checked if he was? Maybe the hosts really did just allow the move for whatever reason. If I die tonight before I get to check him, keep a damn close eye on him. If he moves at all tonight, lynch him tomorrow.
Between phagga, mkfuba and sent, I'm pretty null on all of them. The flashlight thing could be a 3rd party skill (we're still blind as to any 3rd party involvement as of yet) or it could be scum WIFOM.
He is null on me and unsure about Oats, hoping for the check. If I was scum would I not prefer leaving Zephirdd alive over decon?
|
On May 21 2013 20:44 Oatsmaster wrote:
who is the second scum phagga?
Sentinel. What's your take?
|
|
|
Oatsmaster, who is the second scum and why?
Sentinel, any news on your second scum read?
mkfuba, where are you? I asked you about reads regarding Oats and me, please answer.
Deconduo, what is your opinion on mkfubas post and vote on me?
|
Deconduo, another question: Why did you claim D2, but not D1? you had more votes D1 (4 for a few hours, 6 shortly before the deadline), but decided not to claim. On D2 you had 3 votes about 7 hours before deadline and claimed. Can you please walk me through your thought process?
|
I also got some stuff on oats, but I'm too tired now. Will post more in about 10 hours, Oats should be around by then. I really hope there is some more content tomorrow, this game is not over yet.
|
On May 22 2013 13:28 mkfuba07 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2013 11:26 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On May 22 2013 10:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
Sentinel is second scum after deconduo.
Why? Cause he has been flipflopping around my 'scumslip' and now of course he doesnt think phagga is scum, and he cant find any stronger reasons for me to be scum. I never thought phagga was scum. I fell into the sheephole and when you presented your justification of "I wanted to move here" I realized you were in a similar position I fell into by defending feryl. That's when I realized the error of my ways. I pushed for Dec but that one was harder to prove at the moment so I went for ghost. Although ghost flipped town, I gathered more scum play from the dec camp. Why are you not scum? Because Dec is, and for either of you to bus each other at lylo would be so idiotic I would make it a duty to policy lynch both of you from now on. Mkfuba is scum because he fluffs like a mofo and cherrypicks evidence. He believes dec's claim wholeheartedly yet votes to lynch you due to a scumslip and questionable meta. That's playing blind to so many facets of what's transpiring here, its obvious he is trying to sheep you simply because the alternative would be to bus Dec. It is for this reason I will not strive to convince him for he cannot be convinced as scum, but phagga can. See, that's my problem when I play mafia. I can't keep everything everyone's said in my head at all times. I can't go through everyone's filters nonstop because it takes me an eternity. It takes me hours to write almost any post because it's like I see literally every possibility, and can't finish a thought without another one second-guessing what I've already written. If I try to play like everyone else (as everyone else seems to play similarly, though with different attitudes and with different skill levels), I'm fluffy and wishy-washy. So I try to focus on individual actions. It's why I wanted to vote for vivax earlier, and it's why I had more to say about oats's "scumslip". It's why I latched onto phagga's suggestion to check two people, when it gains us literally nothing other than the doubt I find myself in now. The fact that everyone else here (oats excluded, probably) seemed to have had very similar thoughts before the nightpost (oats likely scum, phagga likely town), makes me wonder why the hell no one sees exactly what I do. THERE WAS NO REASON TO CHECK PHAGGA! We all pretty much thought he was town! If I were in phagga's place, even if I considered that I could be checked at the same time, I'd leave it be because THERE WAS NO POINT. Add to that the fact that IF oats is town, and IF phagga is scum, this situation leads to an almost guaranteed win for scum, and the argument seems stronger. We already thought oats was scum. A green check (which decon would provide if it was an oats-only check) on oats would ruin that mislynch. What goes on to secure it? Adding a scum check that can either be attributed to oats or phagga, with obvious results. Keep in mind that this was before you mentioned your case against deconduo. At that moment, if it came simply down to oats vs phagga as scum, you know who you would choose, and I argue that that's what scum was counting on. ##UnvoteAnyway, all of that being said, maybe I was taking deconduo's claim for granted. Do you not feel like fakeclaiming like that would be dangerous as scum at that point in time? Is it not risky to fakeclaim when there's the possibility of you being lynched, when being caught in a fakeclaim will guarantee it? Would you fakeclaim the DT role even though the Doctor would seem like a pretty good DT candidate himself (and you can't use his name, because there's definitely a Doctor out there)? These are some thoughts that keep me believing deconduo, so if you want me to vote for him, convince me I'm wrong.
Look, I'm not even debating that in hindsight it was useless to let decon check me as well, it was just something that came into my mind 5 minutes before deadline and then there was no time left to discuss it. Yes, I agree it could have been a plan by scum, but the point is that in both cases it did not make much sense to let that check happen. Also, as I said earlier, if I was so inclined on getting Oats misslynched, why would I kill all the people that support an Oats lynch? (mainly Zeph). Would it not be much easier to kill deconduo instead and then push an Oats lynch with Zeph?
The plan you are implying is so highly convoluted that it would get a small chance of success for scum. If I was indeed scum, I would have had so many easier ways to push a misslynch than what you are proposing.
Look, let's line this out: For your theorie to work, you have to make these assumptions:
- Phagga is scum
- Deconduo is town
- Oats is town
- Scum decides to kill the guy that supports a town-phagga/scum-Oats theory (Zeph)
- Scum on purpose let town deconduo check town oats
- Scum on purpose come up with a last minute plan before deadline
- Scum on purpose demands of deconduo that he changes his movement 1 minute before deadline
- Scum than uses the new information of deconduo to push an Oats lynch
For my explanation to work, you need to make these assumptions:
- Phagga is town
- Phagga had a bad plan 5 minutes before deadline
If you look at it like this, it should be obvious that while your theory is not impossible, it is very improbable. If I was indeed scum, why would I come up with such a complicated and risky-to-execute plan when I could have had it so much easier with the same chance of success?
|
On May 22 2013 15:13 Oatsmaster wrote:
For me,
I think its mkfuba. I agree that some of his stuff has looked good as I said, but scum have an easy time speculating on stuff so that isnt all alignment indicative I realize. Considering that I have a scumread on Dec, and that he switched between both of them day 1, whoever got lynched would look good for him.
Further more, it seems like he has been following the boat and not rocking it, like all of his reads are in line with town sentiment, and his one outlier, read on phagga, he dropped after it wasnt supported by anyone other than be briefly. Other than that, all ive seen was a few long posts and no bursts of sustained activity I feel.
##Unvote
Vote: mkfuba
wait what? deconduo has a red check, you claim to be town, I claim to be town, someone is lying. How do you not try lynch the guy that is lying?
|
On May 22 2013 15:33 Oatsmaster wrote:
phagga, thoughts on plan above and about sent and mkfuba?
I still think mkfuba is town and sent is scum.
|
On May 22 2013 15:54 Oatsmaster wrote:
OTHER DUDES THOUGHTS PLEASE ABOUT MY PLAN!!!..
Why phagga?
trying to read filters, I'm at work currently. I'll try to post more later, how long are you around today? (for how many more hours). You probably won't be here at deadline, right?
|
I've been chasing filters like mad. Oats has 2 relevant scum games (Ego Mini, LIX), and I followed them up, but somehow his play is so inconsistent that I can't get him on meta really. There is some stuff I like in his filter (not switching to decon when he could D1, interaction with ghost before he got lynched), others is just bad. His fails in logic several times in the game are really ugly. (Zeph-Nightkill, talking about my scum meta, saying neither me nor deconduo is lynchworthy when one of us three is clearly scum).
Decon. Well. He has barely any analysis in his filter. He is talking setup/movement alot. I actually like Sentinels case by now. However, Oats is the worse offender, so my vote stays.
I want the deconduo/Oats situation solved. I'm not gonna vote for anyone else than one of those two.
mkfuba, make your decision, vote either decon or Oats. No other lynch is gonna happen today.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
