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Chill, phagga. I was sleeping <.<
My case on phagga was a possibility that I saw, and felt like sharing because it answered all of my questions and also pretty much guarantees a win for the angels if it goes through. I don't want to lose to such a plan, if it exists, so I made it known. Since no one else (aside from possibly oats?) saw it as viable, then I might have let my imagination get away from me. I just want to make sure that everyone's taken it into consideration, because I've still seen nothing that invalidates it (aside from phagga playing a townier game than oats, which iirc doesn't seem like the hardest thing to do).
In response to deconduo, I wouldn't say that I think oats has played a townier game than phagga. I guess I'm always just expecting some kind of major, overarching game plan from scum, even though that goes against my experience with the game. Based entirely on their play this game, I'd say phagga is town, oats is scum (assuming you're telling the truth about both your power and last night's check). The problem is, I've felt that most of us (excluding oats) played a townier game than ghost did, and he flipped town. Somewhat same for ffreyllt, though with her it was more of a "deal with it now or deal with it later" kind of thing. Chains of mislynches like that make me think that we're looking in the wrong place, so I tried looking where no one else appeared to be. I've lost at least two games of mafia in which I've made it to the end because I've decided that "that person couldn't possibly be scum". I think it was marv in deathnote mafia (for which I feel really stupid XD), and darthpunk in acme. I just don't want that to happen again.
So, all of that being said, I will give in to the general consensus that I'm wrong (since you can't all be scum, right?).
##Vote: Oatsmaster
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On May 22 2013 11:26 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2013 10:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
Sentinel is second scum after deconduo.
Why? Cause he has been flipflopping around my 'scumslip' and now of course he doesnt think phagga is scum, and he cant find any stronger reasons for me to be scum. I never thought phagga was scum. I fell into the sheephole and when you presented your justification of "I wanted to move here" I realized you were in a similar position I fell into by defending feryl. That's when I realized the error of my ways. I pushed for Dec but that one was harder to prove at the moment so I went for ghost. Although ghost flipped town, I gathered more scum play from the dec camp. Why are you not scum? Because Dec is, and for either of you to bus each other at lylo would be so idiotic I would make it a duty to policy lynch both of you from now on. Mkfuba is scum because he fluffs like a mofo and cherrypicks evidence. He believes dec's claim wholeheartedly yet votes to lynch you due to a scumslip and questionable meta. That's playing blind to so many facets of what's transpiring here, its obvious he is trying to sheep you simply because the alternative would be to bus Dec. It is for this reason I will not strive to convince him for he cannot be convinced as scum, but phagga can.
See, that's my problem when I play mafia. I can't keep everything everyone's said in my head at all times. I can't go through everyone's filters nonstop because it takes me an eternity. It takes me hours to write almost any post because it's like I see literally every possibility, and can't finish a thought without another one second-guessing what I've already written. If I try to play like everyone else (as everyone else seems to play similarly, though with different attitudes and with different skill levels), I'm fluffy and wishy-washy.
So I try to focus on individual actions. It's why I wanted to vote for vivax earlier, and it's why I had more to say about oats's "scumslip". It's why I latched onto phagga's suggestion to check two people, when it gains us literally nothing other than the doubt I find myself in now. The fact that everyone else here (oats excluded, probably) seemed to have had very similar thoughts before the nightpost (oats likely scum, phagga likely town), makes me wonder why the hell no one sees exactly what I do. THERE WAS NO REASON TO CHECK PHAGGA! We all pretty much thought he was town! If I were in phagga's place, even if I considered that I could be checked at the same time, I'd leave it be because THERE WAS NO POINT. Add to that the fact that IF oats is town, and IF phagga is scum, this situation leads to an almost guaranteed win for scum, and the argument seems stronger. We already thought oats was scum. A green check (which decon would provide if it was an oats-only check) on oats would ruin that mislynch. What goes on to secure it? Adding a scum check that can either be attributed to oats or phagga, with obvious results. Keep in mind that this was before you mentioned your case against deconduo. At that moment, if it came simply down to oats vs phagga as scum, you know who you would choose, and I argue that that's what scum was counting on.
##Unvote
Anyway, all of that being said, maybe I was taking deconduo's claim for granted. Do you not feel like fakeclaiming like that would be dangerous as scum at that point in time? Is it not risky to fakeclaim when there's the possibility of you being lynched, when being caught in a fakeclaim will guarantee it? Would you fakeclaim the DT role even though the Doctor would seem like a pretty good DT candidate himself (and you can't use his name, because there's definitely a Doctor out there)? These are some thoughts that keep me believing deconduo, so if you want me to vote for him, convince me I'm wrong.
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On May 22 2013 13:49 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Dec had nothing to lose. Sure enough, he could've passed himself as the third blue and pretended to be a DT. Zeph was one who would've pointed out that he too was a blue and there were an awful lot of blues in the game. But otherwise it would've been insanely hard to bust Dec or anyone on a simple claim. Imagine you were the real detective and someone else claimed - both of you haven't been able to secure a position next to someone to check , whether on purpose or accident. With your word against his, it would be impossible to root him out as scum. The rest of the players would suspect one of you is blue and the other red, but nothing more.
I'd argue that in a counter-claim situation, it would be ridiculous for the person countering the claim to be scum, since that person would have intentionally outed himself as scum by counter-claiming a legit DT claim. i.e. if deconduo claimed DT, and you then claimed to be DT, it would be really ridiculous for you to be scum because you (as scum) would know that deconduo was telling the truth, and despite that you fakeclaimed, knowing full well that deconduo, at least, will know you're lying (and if we ended up lynching deconduo in that situation, we'd all know you lied when he flipped).
Similarly in this case it is my word against dec's. I have attempted to lay out points that strengthen the notion that he is scum, and he has done the same to defend himself. I'm just claiming that my points make more sense in context than him.
That might be true, but the convenience of this situation (at least in my case) is that his alignment can be narrowed down to a single criteria: whether or not he fakeclaimed. If he fakeclaimed, he's scum. Otherwise, he's town (or a 3rd party, but at the very least not scum). Some may call it cherrypicking, some may call it lazy, but I see it as a valid way of looking at the situation, narrowing it down in a way I can handle.
TL;DR Fakeclaiming isn't as dangerous as you think it is.
Still feels pretty dangerous, tbh. I still don't see it as likely that he fakeclaimed, given the guaranteed lynch if he did get counter-claimed. I'll take another look at what was going on around the time of his claim, but at the moment I'm not convinced.
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On May 22 2013 15:07 Oatsmaster wrote:
This is really hard for me, for 1 thing,
phagga is playing like town, IE he looks like town for me ,
The other thing, how this copcheck thing went down, it makes a lotta sense for phagga to be scum.
How about, since there must be 2 scum, we discuss a lynch between mkfuba and Sent and figure out the cop check thing later, IE if dec stays alive, he is totally scum.
Whenever you say something like "if he's still alive at this point, then he's scum", it gets really hard to take you seriously... Like, all scum has to do at that point to get dec lynched is not kill him...
On May 22 2013 15:13 Oatsmaster wrote:
For me,
I think its mkfuba. I agree that some of his stuff has looked good as I said, but scum have an easy time speculating on stuff so that isnt all alignment indicative I realize. Considering that I have a scumread on Dec, and that he switched between both of them day 1, whoever got lynched would look good for him.
Further more, it seems like he has been following the boat and not rocking it, like all of his reads are in line with town sentiment, and his one outlier, read on phagga, he dropped after it wasnt supported by anyone other than be briefly. Other than that, all ive seen was a few long posts and no bursts of sustained activity I feel.
##Unvote
Vote: mkfuba
I've picked up my case on phagga again. As evidenced by the fact that I unvoted you and reiterated my entire case against him. I'm also opposing the two of you recently voting for deconduo (which since you think I'm scum is simply more "proof" for you, but if you consider me as town becomes more "boat rocking"). It's new for me. I've never "rocked the boat" before, aside from some kinda ridiculous cases in previous games, so I'm not sure why you would expect it from me in the first place.
And long posts are what you get when I sleep for unnaturally large amounts of time. I'm also bad at putting my thoughts into words, so that's probably some more of it.
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On May 22 2013 15:31 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2013 13:28 mkfuba07 wrote:On May 22 2013 11:26 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On May 22 2013 10:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
Sentinel is second scum after deconduo.
Why? Cause he has been flipflopping around my 'scumslip' and now of course he doesnt think phagga is scum, and he cant find any stronger reasons for me to be scum. I never thought phagga was scum. I fell into the sheephole and when you presented your justification of "I wanted to move here" I realized you were in a similar position I fell into by defending feryl. That's when I realized the error of my ways. I pushed for Dec but that one was harder to prove at the moment so I went for ghost. Although ghost flipped town, I gathered more scum play from the dec camp. Why are you not scum? Because Dec is, and for either of you to bus each other at lylo would be so idiotic I would make it a duty to policy lynch both of you from now on. Mkfuba is scum because he fluffs like a mofo and cherrypicks evidence. He believes dec's claim wholeheartedly yet votes to lynch you due to a scumslip and questionable meta. That's playing blind to so many facets of what's transpiring here, its obvious he is trying to sheep you simply because the alternative would be to bus Dec. It is for this reason I will not strive to convince him for he cannot be convinced as scum, but phagga can. See, that's my problem when I play mafia. I can't keep everything everyone's said in my head at all times. I can't go through everyone's filters nonstop because it takes me an eternity. It takes me hours to write almost any post because it's like I see literally every possibility, and can't finish a thought without another one second-guessing what I've already written. If I try to play like everyone else (as everyone else seems to play similarly, though with different attitudes and with different skill levels), I'm fluffy and wishy-washy. So I try to focus on individual actions. It's why I wanted to vote for vivax earlier, and it's why I had more to say about oats's "scumslip". It's why I latched onto phagga's suggestion to check two people, when it gains us literally nothing other than the doubt I find myself in now. The fact that everyone else here (oats excluded, probably) seemed to have had very similar thoughts before the nightpost (oats likely scum, phagga likely town), makes me wonder why the hell no one sees exactly what I do. THERE WAS NO REASON TO CHECK PHAGGA! We all pretty much thought he was town! If I were in phagga's place, even if I considered that I could be checked at the same time, I'd leave it be because THERE WAS NO POINT. Add to that the fact that IF oats is town, and IF phagga is scum, this situation leads to an almost guaranteed win for scum, and the argument seems stronger. We already thought oats was scum. A green check (which decon would provide if it was an oats-only check) on oats would ruin that mislynch. What goes on to secure it? Adding a scum check that can either be attributed to oats or phagga, with obvious results. Keep in mind that this was before you mentioned your case against deconduo. At that moment, if it came simply down to oats vs phagga as scum, you know who you would choose, and I argue that that's what scum was counting on. ##UnvoteAnyway, all of that being said, maybe I was taking deconduo's claim for granted. Do you not feel like fakeclaiming like that would be dangerous as scum at that point in time? Is it not risky to fakeclaim when there's the possibility of you being lynched, when being caught in a fakeclaim will guarantee it? Would you fakeclaim the DT role even though the Doctor would seem like a pretty good DT candidate himself (and you can't use his name, because there's definitely a Doctor out there)? These are some thoughts that keep me believing deconduo, so if you want me to vote for him, convince me I'm wrong. Look, I'm not even debating that in hindsight it was useless to let decon check me as well, it was just something that came into my mind 5 minutes before deadline and then there was no time left to discuss it. Yes, I agree it could have been a plan by scum, but the point is that in both cases it did not make much sense to let that check happen. Also, as I said earlier, if I was so inclined on getting Oats misslynched, why would I kill all the people that support an Oats lynch? (mainly Zeph). Would it not be much easier to kill deconduo instead and then push an Oats lynch with Zeph? The plan you are implying is so highly convoluted that it would get a small chance of success for scum. If I was indeed scum, I would have had so many easier ways to push a misslynch than what you are proposing. Look, let's line this out: For your theorie to work, you have to make these assumptions: - Phagga is scum
- Deconduo is town
- Oats is town
- Scum decides to kill the guy that supports a town-phagga/scum-Oats theory (Zeph)
- Scum on purpose let town deconduo check town oats
- Scum on purpose come up with a last minute plan before deadline
- Scum on purpose demands of deconduo that he changes his movement 1 minute before deadline
- Scum than uses the new information of deconduo to push an Oats lynch
For my explanation to work, you need to make these assumptions: - Phagga is town
- Phagga had a bad plan 5 minutes before deadline
If you look at it like this, it should be obvious that while your theory is not impossible, it is very improbable. If I was indeed scum, why would I come up with such a complicated and risky-to-execute plan when I could have had it so much easier with the same chance of success?
What scum gains from this wouldn't be that simple, and what I need to assume for this plan to work is far, far more than scum would have to. In my scenario, scum don't simply gain a mislynch on oats. They kill a confirmed, experienced townie (zeph), avoid allowing deconduo to make oats a confirmed townie, almost guarantee a mislynch on oats, and in turn win the game because it's lylo. Those are a LOT of gains when the alternative is letting deconduo confirm the most lynchable townie. And as for the assumptions scum would have to make in that scenario, they know everyone's alignment already, they didn't need to come up with a last minute plan, just unveil it at the last minute, and the rest of those assumptions are just implicitly part of the plan that they would have formed.
Your list of town phagga assumptions is right though... And I just now understood what you really said about my assumptions. I'm wondering if I've been Sherlocking it (that's what I've decided to call it when I find a scum plan that I think fits so perfectly that I can't believe it's not the truth). The ease with which I feel a scum phagga could have developed this plan is at odds with how I would otherwise feel about your alignment. I'll have to think on it a bit more, possibly set myself straight. In any case, I do still believe deconduo, which means that either you or oats is scum (but not both). That leaves only Sentinel as the last scum.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
Oh, and as for oats's plan... I'm kind of against it.
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I thought your plan was to lynch me... I'm opposed to it.
If the plan was simply to choose between sent and I, I guess I'm for it? I mean, you know my decision in that case XD
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I think I responded to you in this post. It'll pretty much stuff that everyone calls fluff, so I'm not sure if you'll be satisfied with it or not, but it's the best I can do. If that's not the post you wanted me to respond to, let me know.
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On May 22 2013 21:57 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2013 16:13 mkfuba07 wrote:On May 22 2013 15:31 phagga wrote:On May 22 2013 13:28 mkfuba07 wrote:On May 22 2013 11:26 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On May 22 2013 10:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
Sentinel is second scum after deconduo.
Why? Cause he has been flipflopping around my 'scumslip' and now of course he doesnt think phagga is scum, and he cant find any stronger reasons for me to be scum. I never thought phagga was scum. I fell into the sheephole and when you presented your justification of "I wanted to move here" I realized you were in a similar position I fell into by defending feryl. That's when I realized the error of my ways. I pushed for Dec but that one was harder to prove at the moment so I went for ghost. Although ghost flipped town, I gathered more scum play from the dec camp. Why are you not scum? Because Dec is, and for either of you to bus each other at lylo would be so idiotic I would make it a duty to policy lynch both of you from now on. Mkfuba is scum because he fluffs like a mofo and cherrypicks evidence. He believes dec's claim wholeheartedly yet votes to lynch you due to a scumslip and questionable meta. That's playing blind to so many facets of what's transpiring here, its obvious he is trying to sheep you simply because the alternative would be to bus Dec. It is for this reason I will not strive to convince him for he cannot be convinced as scum, but phagga can. See, that's my problem when I play mafia. I can't keep everything everyone's said in my head at all times. I can't go through everyone's filters nonstop because it takes me an eternity. It takes me hours to write almost any post because it's like I see literally every possibility, and can't finish a thought without another one second-guessing what I've already written. If I try to play like everyone else (as everyone else seems to play similarly, though with different attitudes and with different skill levels), I'm fluffy and wishy-washy. So I try to focus on individual actions. It's why I wanted to vote for vivax earlier, and it's why I had more to say about oats's "scumslip". It's why I latched onto phagga's suggestion to check two people, when it gains us literally nothing other than the doubt I find myself in now. The fact that everyone else here (oats excluded, probably) seemed to have had very similar thoughts before the nightpost (oats likely scum, phagga likely town), makes me wonder why the hell no one sees exactly what I do. THERE WAS NO REASON TO CHECK PHAGGA! We all pretty much thought he was town! If I were in phagga's place, even if I considered that I could be checked at the same time, I'd leave it be because THERE WAS NO POINT. Add to that the fact that IF oats is town, and IF phagga is scum, this situation leads to an almost guaranteed win for scum, and the argument seems stronger. We already thought oats was scum. A green check (which decon would provide if it was an oats-only check) on oats would ruin that mislynch. What goes on to secure it? Adding a scum check that can either be attributed to oats or phagga, with obvious results. Keep in mind that this was before you mentioned your case against deconduo. At that moment, if it came simply down to oats vs phagga as scum, you know who you would choose, and I argue that that's what scum was counting on. ##UnvoteAnyway, all of that being said, maybe I was taking deconduo's claim for granted. Do you not feel like fakeclaiming like that would be dangerous as scum at that point in time? Is it not risky to fakeclaim when there's the possibility of you being lynched, when being caught in a fakeclaim will guarantee it? Would you fakeclaim the DT role even though the Doctor would seem like a pretty good DT candidate himself (and you can't use his name, because there's definitely a Doctor out there)? These are some thoughts that keep me believing deconduo, so if you want me to vote for him, convince me I'm wrong. Look, I'm not even debating that in hindsight it was useless to let decon check me as well, it was just something that came into my mind 5 minutes before deadline and then there was no time left to discuss it. Yes, I agree it could have been a plan by scum, but the point is that in both cases it did not make much sense to let that check happen. Also, as I said earlier, if I was so inclined on getting Oats misslynched, why would I kill all the people that support an Oats lynch? (mainly Zeph). Would it not be much easier to kill deconduo instead and then push an Oats lynch with Zeph? The plan you are implying is so highly convoluted that it would get a small chance of success for scum. If I was indeed scum, I would have had so many easier ways to push a misslynch than what you are proposing. Look, let's line this out: For your theorie to work, you have to make these assumptions: - Phagga is scum
- Deconduo is town
- Oats is town
- Scum decides to kill the guy that supports a town-phagga/scum-Oats theory (Zeph)
- Scum on purpose let town deconduo check town oats
- Scum on purpose come up with a last minute plan before deadline
- Scum on purpose demands of deconduo that he changes his movement 1 minute before deadline
- Scum than uses the new information of deconduo to push an Oats lynch
For my explanation to work, you need to make these assumptions: - Phagga is town
- Phagga had a bad plan 5 minutes before deadline
If you look at it like this, it should be obvious that while your theory is not impossible, it is very improbable. If I was indeed scum, why would I come up with such a complicated and risky-to-execute plan when I could have had it so much easier with the same chance of success? What scum gains from this wouldn't be that simple, and what I need to assume for this plan to work is far, far more than scum would have to. In my scenario, scum don't simply gain a mislynch on oats. They kill a confirmed, experienced townie (zeph), avoid allowing deconduo to make oats a confirmed townie, almost guarantee a mislynch on oats, and in turn win the game because it's lylo. Those are a LOT of gains when the alternative is letting deconduo confirm the most lynchable townie. And as for the assumptions scum would have to make in that scenario, they know everyone's alignment already, they didn't need to come up with a last minute plan, just unveil it at the last minute, and the rest of those assumptions are just implicitly part of the plan that they would have formed. Your list of town phagga assumptions is right though... And I just now understood what you really said about my assumptions. I'm wondering if I've been Sherlocking it (that's what I've decided to call it when I find a scum plan that I think fits so perfectly that I can't believe it's not the truth). The ease with which I feel a scum phagga could have developed this plan is at odds with how I would otherwise feel about your alignment. I'll have to think on it a bit more, possibly set myself straight. In any case, I do still believe deconduo, which means that either you or oats is scum (but not both). That leaves only Sentinel as the last scum. ##Vote: [UoN]SentinelOh, and as for oats's plan... I'm kind of against it. HOLD THE FUCK UP You're telling me that you don't know whether phagga or Oats is town because Oats refuted your plan, so by that logic I'm the scum?
No. I'm saying that given that I still believe deconduo isn't fakeclaiming, that means one of oats/phagga is scum, leaving one scum left between me and you. Since I know I'm not scum, that only leaves you. It's not the best argument for convincing others, but it's logic that I am comfortable with. (I also don't remember oats refuting my plan... but that's neither here nor there)
phagga, will you absolutely not vote for sent today? You've said already that you think he's the final scum (unless you've changed your mind after the filter dives). Is the problem that oats is also voting for him?
In any case, I'll be here until the deadline. I know it's lylo, and I will avoid a no-lynch no matter what. You know where my vote will go if it comes down to it.
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Doesn't it also seem strange that deconduo would fakeclaim just to implicate his scumbuddy? I feel like oats and sent bussing each other is more likely than oats + decon, in any case.
Hmm... actually, maybe not... I could just be sherlocking again, but something's occurred to me that I hadn't considered before, for some reason. Not enough time to look into it/explain it now, but I'm willing to vote for oats. Hopefully I haven't just talked myself into a mislynch, but I'm feeling pretty good about it.
##Unvote
##Vote: Oatsmaster
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Wait phagga, I just want to make sure. Did you move where you intended to, and did you get any PMs?
And I'm glad you guys persuaded me XD
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No PMs to you either deconduo? Didn't see anything last night, etc?
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Hmmm...
Looks like today is gonna be another low-talk kinda day. I don't see dec bussing oats as very likely, so I feel the same way sentinel does, but reversed. Everything's in deconduo and phagga's hands, I guess.
##Vote: Sentinel
In response to phagga's post above:
I'm not really sure how much we can infer from what's gone on with kills, angel sightings, etc. It might be reasonable to assume that the angels (assuming they all have similar role PMs) have used all their "stalks" (again, assuming they can only use the power once, each). That would explain why none of them apparently ended up next to a townie last night. Or, I should say, the one remaining angel didn't. I mean, on top of that, we don't really know when all of the actions are resolved. Maybe oats was lynched before he was going to feed. Maybe, as I said earlier, no angels ended their turns next to townies. Maybe they decided not to feed last night for some reason (I can't really imagine why... but it's one of the possibilities). There's also little we can infer about the final angel's current position. Yes, sentinel says he saw something last night, but without knowing the lynch/move order we don't know which angel (the one near you guys, or the one near me) died. But, again, we can't really say. Some of these questions have a more likely answer (I'd imagine lynches occur before movement/feeding/killing), but idk, it's a lot of unknowns to get lost in.
I've got time to talk today if anyone's here. Not sure how much there is to talk about, but I'm available XD
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So, I was hoping to encourage my actual last scumread into action by voting, but I guess he really has been busy all day (or is waiting for phagga to vote so he can piggyback and secure a mislynch). In any case, I'd like everyone to look at deconduo. I spent a lot of time deciding whether or not I felt he would have fakeclaimed, and that drew my attention away from the points raised against him by others. I still think my method is valid, as only scum dec would fakeclaim, and only town dec would actually be DT, but the circumstances under which I was determining that likelihood have changed.
Anyway, all of that being said, maybe I was taking deconduo's claim for granted. Do you not feel like fakeclaiming like that would be dangerous as scum at that point in time? Is it not risky to fakeclaim when there's the possibility of you being lynched, when being caught in a fakeclaim will guarantee it? Would you fakeclaim the DT role even though the Doctor would seem like a pretty good DT candidate himself (and you can't use his name, because there's definitely a Doctor out there)? These are some thoughts that keep me believing deconduo, so if you want me to vote for him, convince me I'm wrong.
These are the reasons I gave for believing decon didn't fakeclaim. What has changed for me is my understanding of the events around the time of his claim. I'm crap at organizing my cases into easy-to-follow paragraphs and steps, so I'll just lay out everything that's led to this change of heart.
D1, the two most likely lynch candidates were vivax and deconduo. Also note that oats+vivax weren't holding back against each other starting almost instantly D1 (a willingness to bus early and pretty hard). At the time of deconduo's claim, the top candidates were oats, deconduo, and sharrant. Given that oats WAS scum, we know that his movement claim WAS a scumslip. Scum knew that *at the time*. So, at this point, they've lost one angel already, one made a pretty significant scumslip that half the players jumped on the wagon for(and that the angels KNOW was a scumslip), and the last (assuming I am correct) was the runner up for the previous day's lynch as well as the current player whose wagon is gaining momentum. THIS is a situation in which almost all of the points I raised in my D4 post are invalidated. There was MUCH more pressure on scum than I previously understood. D2, with two scum on the chopping block the day before, with the last two on the block today. At that point, how he came up with an unused name for an unused role is somewhat less important (though it's just occurred to me that Amelia Pond wasn't actually IN the episode that contained Billy Shipton, the companion at that time was Martha [the implication from this being that it was unlikely to find both Billy and Amy in the same episode, so it was probably not a name already in use]; also as someone pointed out previously, scum has all the information it needs to act as a DT).
So, given that I believe it's completely viable for deconduo to have fakeclaimed in that situation, and given that vivax and oats were so ready to bus each other, I don't see it as unreasonable for deconduo and oats to do so, in turn. So what makes him scum? Most of the stuff that Sentinel previously mentioned. What is most convincing for me is that many of his comments are either asking questions (many of which have already been answered/I somehow knew the answer already so I didn't see why it needed to be asked) or observations that are also readily apparent. When I think of his contributions this game, aside from his supposed role his questions are in the forefront. In addition, there are two people who I felt would be pretty concerned about today's lynch: deconduo and phagga. For Sentinel and I, we only had one real option. Phagga has shown some concern and effort, and I expect we would have seen more if anyone else in the game showed interest in discussion. But the only other person who really needs to figure things out is deconduo, and we've heard nothing from him but an assurance to find set up a computer soon. Even if he couldn't see the board, he could have read the thread (it's grown by like, 6 posts or something since the day started) and posted more. And now that I think of it, he could have tried to set up a check on sentinel last night, and he would have supposedly known who the final scum was. He didn't do that either. He's basically showing a complete lack of interest in the outcome of today, when I'd expect him to be one of the most concerned. Also note that we know that he's at least seen both phagga and sentinel saying that he's town, and wouldn't have bussed oats. If that doesn't lull a fakeclaiming scum into a sense of security, I don't know what would.
##Unvote
##Vote: deconduo
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Sorry for how long that post was... I've been thinking about it a lot.
And since the deadline is in 10.5 hours, I'm gonna try to get some sleep. I'll set my alarm for... I'll say 4 hours before the lynch. I'll probably hit snooze for at least an hour, though.
Guys, make the right decision. Look at how the claim and the promise of a check has helped them (two mislynches between oats's scumslip and his actual lynch). Try to see the situation from scum's point of view at the moment of deconduo's claim. It's completely reasonable for deconduo to "bus" oats because it wasn't even really a bus. It was damage control.
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On May 24 2013 21:37 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
I'm convinced mk is town but I haven't the foggiest who the last scum is.
Mk could you justify why dec and oats would bus each other? assuming they are both scum
First, the scumteam that has been revealed so far shows no signs of being afraid to bus each other. That's not all of it, but it certainly helps the thought process along. Then, there's the fact that with one scum dead N1, another one made a convincing scumslip that half the players in the game jumped on him for. Note that as opposed to the rest of town, they KNEW it was a scumslip. I imagine it's far more convincing for them than it was for us, given that they KNEW he was scum. Then, the remaining scum was the next in line to be lynched D1, as well as the "current" (at the time) lynch candidate after his own scumpartner, and tied with Sharrant. At that point, I would either be really scared, really desperate, or just generally not care all that much (would have given up) if I were scum. Any and all of these could provide motivation to fakeclaim and bus. And as I said, it was barely even bussing. It was pointing out that someone who not only slipped hard, but was also called scum by almost every dead townie in the game, was in fact scum. It was more like damage control.
There are other reasons that I believe get more into sherlocking. Such as their "oops, we both tried to occupy the same space! Guess we'll have to wait another turn to check oats!" *ohyou.jpg* Considering that we "couldn't" lynch oats until the check on him was complete, and we "couldn't" lynch deconduo because he was a claimed DT, it would have been literally impossible to lynch scum if these two were scum together. If they considered this, and deconduo understood the rules better than he appears to in the thread (which I imagine he does) then even that could have been planned. But this entire second paragraph is unnecessary. It felt very speculative, so I left it out in my first post.
Also, he still hasn't posted anything else in the thread. Maybe he just really wants to wait until he can see the board for some reason. Maybe because he can't formulate a fake PM from the hosts saying that phagga is town without knowing that he is, in fact, actually next to phagga, and only phagga. Maybe my questions earlier in this day have actually come to some use after all. But, again, really speculative. It does explain why he doesn't post only because he can't see the board, though.
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Phagga's post made me worried that I was right about him yesterday, and that he was preemptively GG'ing as a joke.
Then I remembered that that would mean deconduo was lying, too.
I'm so paranoid around lynch time...
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Please teach me the art of chill. I could really use it, haha.
GG, either way.
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YESSS!!
I really didn't want this to be a repeat of Deathnote mafia, and it wasn't! (by that, I mean I get myself all worked up over an idea and end up being completely wrong)
I liked the flavor, liked the concept, had fun thinking about the board. I can't really comment on balance all that much though, so I'll leave that up to people who know more of such things XD
GG everyone!
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And don't be sad, sent. I feel like your review is what made me decide dec instead of you. That and the fact that you ended up having the same process of elimination vote as me at the end. Once I realized that deconduo could totally have been fakeclaiming, it felt clear to me that it was him instead of you (at least, it was as clear as anything ever is to me when playing mafia).
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EPT
