Carnival Cruise Mafia
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Kinda feeling better ... I'll stay /in. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 13 2013 05:00 DarthPunk wrote: I believe it was optimal for me to claim and prevent cops potentially wasting a check on me when I can just claim and then you all can discuss in the thread what to do. Information denial only assists mafia. What? How is this at all true? | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 13 2013 13:49 Oatsmaster wrote: That was the absolutely worst vig shot in the history of mafia On May 13 2013 13:49 Oatsmaster wrote: Or scum decided to kill a dude under pressure. How can it be both a bad vig shot and a bad scum shot? This makes no sense at all. In light of the DarthPunk flip I went back and reread people's stances on him. Because he had so much spotlight on him, scum would be compelled to make an opinion on him, or at least comment on him. What is important is to see how people justify their suspicions / read on him - town players have straightforward explanations while mafia try to make stuff up. Out of them, rayn sticks out the most: On May 13 2013 04:32 raynpelikoneet wrote: It's not optimal. It's stupid or mafia. This is a classic mafia tactic. Push and lynch people for being bad, not scum. On May 13 2013 04:36 raynpelikoneet wrote: I mean it's not optimal to claim miller if you don't know the exact number of delf-aware millers. What Hiro said, it only allows mafia to get away with claiming it right in the beginning. If you are town you should never be checked by a cop. Here rayn implicitly calls DarthPunk mafia without actually doing so. He is pushing the idea that because it is "not optimal" that he is scum upon a ridiculous premise. "If you are town you shouldn't be checked". Read that out loud to yourself. It's nonsense. If that was the case then cops would always land red checks. Rayn is justifying his vote with bad (read non existent) reasoning. On May 13 2013 05:39 raynpelikoneet wrote: I dunno what to make of it. Maybe he will explain it, maybe not, i'll judge later. I'm more interested in DP defending his claim as "what only townie would do" and then saying he is a good scum player and would never draw attention to himself like that as scum. If he thinks this is optimal town play, why so defensive? And calling people who think claiming miller is scummy stupid/scum is ridiculous. I would atm lynch him based purely on that. Avoiding giving opinions on kitaman(!!!) and draws attention back on DarthPunk. Then proceeds to ask a loaded question. On May 13 2013 05:48 raynpelikoneet wrote: How about you stop defending your sole action and start scumhunting instead? Another loaded question, pushing suspicion on him without any justification. ##Vote raynpelikoneet | ||
slOosh
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 14 2013 01:28 Promethelax wrote: because dumb. It would be bad scum play obviously but I have seen scum players do it in the past when trying to look as if they are contributing/paying attention. It is one of the things scum have the easiest time being involved in. Something else I noticed about Oats earlier but wasn't sure about so I haven't brought it up yet: he was the one with the plan to make someone fight for their lives day one (a plan I rather liked) and yet he didn't come out with an early vote day one. So a "scumslip" sort of? As for Oats, that was a plan I quite disliked and found him suspicious for. This game is instant majority lynch, whereas (recent) games tend to be deadline majority. By encouraging the idea of using votes to pressure, it urges people to be casual with their votes and allows for more scum manipulation. The vote-steal claim falls into this plan as (depending on how it works) would allow a quick hidden hammer without responsibility. | ||
slOosh
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slOosh
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slOosh
3291 Posts
We need to start consolidating our votes. 6 wagons with a handful of people who I can't recall posting is a recipe for disaster. I really would like more discussion on rayn than "he is good if not we can kill him later". 1) I have no idea how good he is, and even if he was good, there's no reason to give "good players" a "free multi day pass". 2) This doesn't actually work. In Liquid City Mafia, I was caught and exposed early by BloodyCobbler because of my weak scum play, yet no one actually lynched me. 3) Traditionally mafia KP is based upon mafia #. Lowering mafia # lowers mafia KP. His re-entry into the thread has 3 red flags: Flag 1: On May 14 2013 02:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: I agree with Prome on OO. I also do not like OO's analysis on my playstyle in this game. I can't read OO well and after Red Team Prize i have just mostly ignored him. Here i think he is a good lynch. There is 0 contribution in this post. He sheeps Prome, comments that he doesn't like OO's analysis on himself but neglects to give any concrete proof or explanation, pre-emptively shirks responsibility for making a correct lynch by saying that he cannot read him, admits to ignoring him, and still concludes that he is a good lynch. Flag 2: From memory or reread, look at the people who find rayn suspicious. Ok. Now look at the things / people he chooses to address. Ok. Notice the discrepancy? He totally fails to address me. The one who (arguably) made the most clear cut, straightforward case against him. On May 14 2013 00:55 slOosh wrote: In light of the DarthPunk flip I went back and reread people's stances on him. Because he had so much spotlight on him, scum would be compelled to make an opinion on him, or at least comment on him. What is important is to see how people justify their suspicions / read on him - town players have straightforward explanations while mafia try to make stuff up. Out of them, rayn sticks out the most: This is a classic mafia tactic. Push and lynch people for being bad, not scum. Here rayn implicitly calls DarthPunk mafia without actually doing so. He is pushing the idea that because it is "not optimal" that he is scum upon a ridiculous premise. "If you are town you shouldn't be checked". Read that out loud to yourself. It's nonsense. If that was the case then cops would always land red checks. Rayn is justifying his vote with bad (read non existent) reasoning. Avoiding giving opinions on kitaman(!!!) and draws attention back on DarthPunk. Then proceeds to ask a loaded question. Another loaded question, pushing suspicion on him without any justification. ##Vote raynpelikoneet Instead of addressing this primary suspicion on him, he chooses to instead address Vivax's fake - role name business, which wasn't even the primary source of suspicion on him. This is cherry picking; this is sidestepping. Flag 3: False "contribution". I don't remember who said this, but they said they liked rayn's most recent contributions. Well they should read again. Pick out just how many of his posts are questions. Those posts are not alignment telling - scum can do it no problem because it's so easy. In fact I resort to asking questions as scum because it's safe and I know I won't get flak for it, but it makes it look like I'm participating in discussion. You have to look into purpose and motivation behind the questions. The ultimate difference in scum and town is that town want scum dead while scum want to look like they want scum dead. Therefore, the ultimate heuristic in finding scum is to ask "are they actually trying to get scum lynched?" From his filter, rayn's only "meaningful" suspicion is on OO. You can see this because he tries to get people to focus on OO. However, they are in the form of "what do you think of OO? why not lynch him?", when he himself had given no proper reasoning to lynching him. There is no honest effort to make players understand his view of OO. It is uncertain if he actually wants OO (or anyone in particular) lynched or not. Makings of scum play - as long as it isn't scum, they don't care where the lynch lands. Everyone who hasn't, and everyone who has needs to give their updated views on rayn. If you want to push for someone else, you best have something more than a 1 liner saying "he looks bad". On May 14 2013 03:51 WaveofShadow wrote: You may, good sir. My opinion in general of Rayn is that he is a pretty tunnely guy...people call his play good but I honestly never quite see it. He tends to be pretty aggressive and when he's got someone in his sights as town he is very reluctant to let that read go and will post constantly attacking said person. I haven't seen much of that Rayn this game, though he may be starting to latch onto Vivax as we speak? Not sure. There are things about his play, however that make me think he's town that I am not allowed to mention yet again, sigh. I will go with town for now. Not to put you on the spot or anything, but this would be a good time to mention said unmentionables. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 14 2013 00:55 slOosh wrote: How can it be both a bad vig shot and a bad scum shot? This makes no sense at all. On May 14 2013 01:57 slOosh wrote: Oats do you think WoS is scum or not? Please don't ignore me. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 14 2013 10:50 WaveofShadow wrote: I'm not claiming shit. And Sloosh, I can't mention said unmentionables because ongoing game. Look at stuff Prom said about it; he's looked stuff up. Oh, sorry, I thought it was like, a secret town tell read that you weren't giving away. On May 14 2013 14:35 VisceraEyes wrote: What do you think about VayneAuthority? His vote on prplhz seems opportunistic and he basically parroted your reasoning for voting rayn as his reasoning for suspecting prplhz...at least that's what it looks like to me. Are you similarly suspicious of prplhz for his interaction (saying "hi") with Kita? Not sure what you mean by opportunistic here. I think the thing with kita is a big stretch, but I don't find the degree / context to which he uses it as that alarming. It could be a means of idle participation, but I'm not up to date yet (I'm addressing posts as I catch up on thread). post edit: this may be the case given that none of his posts really stuck out to me On May 14 2013 18:17 Vivax wrote: A scumWoS is compatible with the idea of a scumrayn and a scumprplhz, but not with a scumOats so that should answer s & b's question about what I think about Oats. One at a time Vivax, one at a time. I don't see the WoS lynch as strong as it is made out to be. This quote is quite true. On May 15 2013 04:02 WaveofShadow wrote: See this is exactly what I mean. WTF is this? Look at how many of my posts are about Oats. How can I take this fucking game seriously? I'll be looking over rayn's defense of me when I get a more substantial block of time. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
Could someone give a quick summary of the top wagons? I don't think I can properly evaluate rayn within whatever time we have left. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 15 2013 12:04 Ace wrote: HiroPro[L-8]: Anonymous Vote Did I miss something here? I thought we tested Oats vote as invalid? Looking at OO's filter right now. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote ObviousOne Oats, could you explain this from town perspective? On May 15 2013 07:02 ObviousOne wrote: Vayne is the wrong lynch today, VE. See his other ongoing newbie game that we can't talk about and you will see why. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 15 2013 12:49 Ace wrote: VayneAuthority[L-8]: ObviousOne He defends Vayne using unmentionable meta, presumably on writing style / attitude / activity since that is what meta tends to be. Yet when he flips and pushes a Vayne lynch less than an hour later On May 15 2013 08:09 ObviousOne wrote: I don't like it and I think I'll vote to lynch you now that I've reviewed your filter. Nothing in Prplhz filter says scum to me right now. Your point about Kita interaction means precisely nothing. Saying you suck to slOosh is null. Two null points do not a scum read make. This is a staggering fabrication while you yourself remain distanced and full of "logic" but your logic is faulty and a such you are either willfully pushing a bad lynch or you are simply not aware that most players here are friendly with each other and that basic interactions are useful not only to determine alignment but to greet each other when they haven't played together in some time. ##unvote Sinani ##vote VayneAuthority No mention at all about Vayne's meta. These are all points that existed before, and there isn't actually stuff in there that is used to prove he is scum as much as it is used to prove that he is a "bad player". Therefore the original meta use is total fluff. It's like me saying, OO is scum because meta. Vote OO. I can't explain why. But I reserve the right to shirk responsibility for this stance later. | ||
slOosh
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 15 2013 16:08 ObviousOne wrote: Kind of an out-of-place (but relevant to conversation) defense of me before the bandwagon on me took off. It's curious. Making a note of it. Go to the filter. [re-read on hold to follow this train of thought] Later on, we get this: I fully explained it Apparently not good enough. What can I expect when he's under the gun to get it in just a few minutes before deadline? Why ask Oats, why not ask the horse itself? Because at the time I had previously established a soft town read on Vayne. Then I re-read him and understood exactly what was being discussed about Vayne and his case against Prp and I found his case contrary to his purported town mentality and modus operandum. His back and forth with Prom just sealed the deal to me. Have I made things clear yet? Are you reading my posts in context or are you just skimming through my filter? How does the first quote have any relevance to the rest of the response? I must have missed / disregarded your meta post. All you did was say "his town meta is this, his scum meta is this". So all I have is to take your word on it, given that you did not provide any evidence whatsoever. Even now I don't know how true this is, nor have you taken it upon yourself to convince anyone that this is the case. I agree that Vayne was pretty emotional with his back and forth with Prom, but that means nothing unless you can prove that this is something he doesn't do as town and he does do as scum. If you can't do that, you've taken a stance without justification. It slipped my mind Oats didn't have a vote. Obviously I'm going to try convincing people who might put their vote on you rather than you yourself. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 15 2013 16:25 Vivax wrote: You people are so abysmally bad. You should simply go read how WoS treats BH when he was pushing him, earlier in the day. If you can read. Then you will notice he shovels shit at him without ever making a case, but in the next moment he tries to tell him that he's (WoS) not scum in begging tone. He completely stopped pursuing his Oats scumread. Literally everything could do for him, late in the day. There is no target for WoS. Wake up baddies Vivax, what do you mean? If anything Oats was one of the more viable deflection targets should WoS be scum. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
And that's the general atmosphere of how I'm reading Day 1. Many people voicing suspicions and pointing fingers, but very few people actually pushing / consolidating / willing to get people lynched. That leads me to believe that we have a more lurky / timid type scum team that is joining on what is available rather than actively working to push lynches. The difficulty is that we have a bunch of lurky town who are doing the exact same thing and letting scum hide amongst them. My stance upon OO is dependent on if he can back his words with proof - if he can mount a meta case on Vayne and therefore justify his actions and stances, then he doesn't look that bad, given that I don't really find Prom's "scumslip" thing that big, as indicated by my earlier question to him. People I want to lynch will reveal themselves early tomorrow. If they don't / can't push the cases / suspicions that they voiced in day 1, then we know they were full of fluff and just pretending to look good. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 16 2013 03:31 ObviousOne wrote: You might be waiting a few games to get a full fledged meta case on Vayne. You know, considering this is game 2 for him on this forum here on this account as far as I am aware. If you call me saying him reacting emotionally to Prom when he said that's what he does as town in this very game (and a far as I'm aware that is where this concept originates, that he will get emotional as town when he is headed for a mislynch), why should I believe it? So I take his last game and his explanation from his play there and extend it to here and I'm left with conflicting ideas brought up by his own design that he essentially is authoring his own meta on a game by game basis. All I have to go on is his own word regarding this and that's why I don't trust it as it makes me wonder why it is that you DO. If I precluded my own play this game with "I only get demotivated about the game as town" and then did what I did, would you honestly take my word for it they I pre-emotes my actions with reasoning? Besides all that, meta is icing on the cake and not a sole basis for my case. His points regarding Prp were null, not scummy, and I wanted to hang him for lynching Prp for basically manufactured reasons. His emotional response at 3 votes is absolutely out of this world incongruent with the game state. I'm sorry, where do I do the bolded? I never claimed meta was a sole basis for your case. And I addressed the other points of your case: On May 15 2013 13:00 slOosh wrote: No mention at all about Vayne's meta. These are all points that existed before, and there isn't actually stuff in there that is used to prove he is scum as much as it is used to prove that he is a "bad player". Therefore the original meta use is total fluff. You are merely using points that VE (iirc) already brought up against Vayne, just with more flourish. Your case on Vayne boils down to him being a poor player rather than scum, and you still have failed to provide any meaningful meta on him, saying that it can't be done but still using it as justification for lynching him. So 0 contribution on that end. Your two previous votes are on yourself and on a total lurker, and this all when thread sentiment was focusing on you and a wagon was building on you: On May 15 2013 05:51 ObviousOne wrote: I changed my mind. Rayn is not smart. Other than that I really have nothing to add to the conversation. I got asked a question or three along the way but I CBF to answer them. I have zero passion for this game today. You can take that as you will. The fact that I was trying to get people to talk N0 and honey badgered my way up through the first flips apparently holds no weight with anyone and drained my motivation when I now see that people who were not or just barely participating are still not or just barely participating and I have no response to that except to help remove myself from this situation. ##vote ObviousOne On May 15 2013 06:47 ObviousOne wrote: Okay. That makes some sense. FWIW I don't think you are mafia and I do plan to re-read tonight despite my condition. So let's do this and vote Sinani. BM is easy enough to figure out when he posts. Let's vote Sinani off the ship. ##unvote ObviousOne ##vote Sinani Resistance will be met with aggression and hostility. If you are counting on a mod kill, shut your hole. If you think you can read into him with zero posts, you're deranged. Take out the trash. First lynch is a gift. And you say I'm farting into the wind? | ||
slOosh
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slOosh
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Ok one post at a time: On May 17 2013 00:36 Promethelax wrote: It's time for a new wagon, wake up town there is a vet looking at the noose: ##vote: VE Go read my mega post for why, but TL:DR his play regarding OO is all kinds of not VE, if he had a strong town read on one of his favourite players he'd fight against that lynch not limp dick his way onto the wagon citing me as the reason for his vote. I assume you are referring to the following quote here: On May 15 2013 10:12 VisceraEyes wrote: Let me put it out there that I'm willing to consolidate on OO if he's really lost the will to play. Prom is right, the fact that I have martyred as town doesn't make it a standard townie thing, and my read of OO might be biased because I like the guy. I will move to OO to secure a lynch when the time comes. Do you know of games where VE fights lynches even though it may threaten a no-lynch? It seems like he was willing to consolidate on a town read's scum read given that his wagon was [L-7], and a majority didn't look secured so close to deadline. I'm torn with VE because I know he is a confident scum player who doesn't fear the spotlight and generally does whatever the heck he wants. Day 1 was full of many suspicions and then concluded with a scramble to consolidate. During that time VE pushed the Vayne wagon. As scum, the only reason why you would bother adding another lynch suspect is to indirectly aid a scumbuddy in trouble, and that probably wasn't the case as votes came in very late and threats were difficult to detect. He backs off as the deadline approached to consolidate, which would be counter to achieving a no-lynch day, which is ideal for scum as it leaves people an extra cycle without information and fosters suspicions and doubts. I also agree with his lynch choice of HiroPro. He fits the Day 1 heuristic very tightly. The core of his day 1 play revolved around ObviousOne, but totally drops it with no explanation, and picks up the new thread sentiment of VE, and the rest of his posts seemed more concerned with mechanics explanations, but not with the intent of finding scum. On May 17 2013 03:03 HiroPro wrote: I'm not interested in killing ObviousOne right now. i'll decide who to lynch later when I have time to read. probably viscera, but we'll see. On May 17 2013 03:31 HiroPro wrote: there's nothing about the politician that says they have to be mafia. it's entirely possible that they're town - i can think of at least two games that I've played in with a town politician. second, the deadline is at such a unusual time that even if the politician was mafia and obviousone was town, they simply might not have been around to move it from me to obvious. then there are some people in this game who seem to believe that it's better to lynch someone that's town than to have a no-lynch on d1, a mafia politician like that might even think it's a good idea to leave a town player alive. Another player that fits the bill is Oatsmaster. His voting patterns always parrot someone else's and give off the impression that he just wants to see people flip rather than finding scum. The day 1 vote thing is a red flag as it 1) easily aids the goal of no-lynch, and more importantly 2) let's him escape the responsibility and stance taking that a vote forces. There is no reason to think that this was a town votestealer, since the only use would be to take a suspected scum's vote and make him vote himself. Rather the vote was tossed away. A scum votestealer in a day 1 environment would have used the role defensively, since there is no point in stealing a town vote (no fear in consolidation on scumbuddy) and there could be the potential backlash of making the target look more town for it. | ||
slOosh
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On May 17 2013 15:02 Oatsmaster wrote: You played with me in nomination. Did you get the same feel here as in there? Or since you think im scum, whats different? Also why steal my vote if Im scum? Im pretty sure I took plenty of obvious stands that wouldve been accompanied by a vote if I had one. Im pretty sure I did actually vote for people even if It didnt count. Can you quote the portions where you think I am more interested in the flip than scumhunting? Nomination was far from a normal game. All I remember from that game is that you couldn't trust me and toward the end I had to kill myself for you to trust me. None of my points are meta. I explain in the post you quote why there is ample reason for scum to steal their own vote. Your day 1 stances don't mean much since you move on to a totally new batch of new suspects day 2. As for the last point, I don't know how to quote attitude and tone. I think you are lackadaisical in your approach to lynches and NKs, which is at total odds with the current condition that we are in. So Oats, can you provide original content on any of your day 1 suspects, or even the current day 2 suspects? | ||
slOosh
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On May 17 2013 16:40 VisceraEyes wrote: Shiro is literally just following along with town sentiment. He hasn't done ANYTHING today - literally nothing but vote. But something about it. Like look at this post: Would scum SAY THIS? Like, let's remove all variables from the equation - don't factor in that he has a team - don't factor in that he's a "newbie" - just think of this from a scum-aligned standpoint. Can you think of a reason to EVER just come out and say "I just like to agree with the towniest guy there is." UGH but his filter is SOOOOO BAD. ##Summon: Promethelax ##Summon: Blazinghand ##Summon: slOosh You three. You three will immediately give me your opinion of shirokami. You will do this thing or you will NEVER regain your honor! Based on the observation I just made, I think town. I think new town in over his head. But I want backup on this one. His whole filter supports his playstyle mentality -> consistency. | ||
slOosh
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On May 18 2013 04:50 VisceraEyes wrote: That's not an opinion. That's an observation. WHAT DOES IT MEEEEEEEAN?!?!? Scum are more likely to flip-flop and take disparate / contradictory stances over time as they have a personal interest in not bringing unwanted suspicion / attention on teammates. For him to be consistent and scum means that town is so lost that he can freely give his votes away without fear of it hitting a teammate from the start of the game - which I find to be on par with the "bus all my teammates, ride town cred into victory" strategy. | ||
slOosh
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On May 18 2013 05:09 VisceraEyes wrote: Okay - and again, we haven't flipped a scum yet. You just made more observations without giving a conclusion in the slightest. Do you think he's town based on his consistency? Or do you think he's scum based on the apparent direction town is heading? That I've had to ask you this three times now....well it'd be an understatement to say that it surprises me. I think he is town and if he is scum he is playing for town. Is that clear enough? | ||
slOosh
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slOosh
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On May 18 2013 08:55 HiroPro wrote: ahhhh, w/e. I don't even care, I haven't slept in ages and I don't even know what i'm doing anymore at this point honestly. kill him ##Unvote ##Vote Promethelax The guy doesn't do anything for the whole game, makes a case when he is pressured and on the end of a noose, and then immediately drops the case when something with more prospects comes up, and you all decide to sheep someone even though he gave no reasoning and isn't going to be here to figure out the lynch? Utter bull. We stay the course - there's an abnormal amount of backlash to this lynch compared to Day 1. It probably means we are right and scum are flailing about because they are trying for perfect game. ##Vote: HiroPro | ||
slOosh
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slOosh
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On May 18 2013 08:55 Blazinghand wrote: I'm currently being flood-controlled but here are my thoughts: if Prom is really doing this and bailing without backup, no case, just a vote, and saying he's gone till deadline, that's a clear scum move. I suggest we vote him. His play this game has been bullshit. ##unvote ##vote promethelax On May 18 2013 08:55 HiroPro wrote: ahhhh, w/e. I don't even care, I haven't slept in ages and I don't even know what i'm doing anymore at this point honestly. kill him ##Unvote ##Vote Promethelax | ||
slOosh
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Whoever is sheeping whatever, go and reread how the focus was all set on HiroPro, and suddenly a giant mess came out of no where and the wagons was split and diverted, and Hiro went back to lurking again now the pressure is off. If you still think lynching BH is the best move, then we've lost this anyways. Going to sleep now, please don't mess this up - all we need is one good lynch to unravel scum. | ||
slOosh
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slOosh
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slOosh
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On May 18 2013 19:52 Promethelax wrote: Sloosh is scum, hasn't cared about a lynch before but now we're in what scum probably thought was mylo he chainsaw defends BH and pushes through hiro lynch. Sorry I wasn't here to make this lynch land on scum. Assuming the game doesn't end tonight lynch into bh/sloosh tomorrow. If I'm alive I'll lead you on this road. Hey Prom, sick pre-flip association reads. You go AWOL last night, blame BH that he calls you out on it but then proceed to blame me for being late for day 1 lynch? You call me desperate scum that went for a gambit on mylo, even though as scum I would know the KP formula and be able to do basic math? You say I chainsaw defend BH even though the person pushing BH was VE and I didn't attack him, nor you in any way whatsoever? Q: If HiroPro was the wrong lynch, why didn't Prome say anything about it? A: He is scum that parked his vote somewhere else to avoid any responsibility, and now is trying to pin the blame of the flip based on the result, not on the analysis / justifications / reasoning. GG. Your desire for a perfect game was your downfall. | ||
slOosh
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This is an Ace game. He knows the game of mafia very well. He designs great setups that reward good play and punishes bad play. The games are balanced, and mechanics can be used, nay, should be used as a component of analysis. Let's consider last night - BH flipped scum. Good. But the greater observation to be made is that there was only one flip. Observe: On May 13 2013 13:44 Ace wrote: Night 0 kitaman27, the Ship Warden (Jailkeeper) has been thrown overboard! DarthPunk, The Wall Street Investor (Vanilla Town/Self Aware Miller) has been found hung from the gallows! On May 16 2013 14:05 Ace wrote: Night 1 VayneAuthority, The Virgin Cruiser (Vanilla Town) has been killed raynpelikoneet, Internet Contest Winner (Vanilla Town) has been killed Vivax, The Crew Barber (Vigilante) has been killed On May 19 2013 13:07 Ace wrote: Night 2 BlazingHand, Thomas Jefferson (Framer) has been killed What's going on here? We have 2 kills night 0, 3 kills night 1, 1 scum kill night 2. Think critically. Last night scum KP had no effect, and scum was shot. So we have missing KP, and unaccounted for KP. What traditionally explains missing KP? Medics / jailors / veterans and ....? What traditionally explains non-scum KP? Vigs and ...? That's right. 3rd party SK. "Oh slOosh what are you stupid? Why would you come to that conclusion?" Because look at it from a balance perspective. We had on our side a Jailkeeper, a 1 shot copy cat and an infinite shot vigi. Scum had 1 gimped framer, which suggests the presence of a cop-type role, and some sort of gimped vote-steal power, which wasn't even used the second day. For us to have another vig and a protective role doesn't make any sense. Furthermore, for 2KP to be removed, it means we have multiple protective roles, that failed all prior nights but simultaneously managed to block separate KP last night. Ace is all about KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid. There is a 3rd party SK. This is the only scenario that fits and is able to explain all three nights. Ok - all this is nice, but for it to reach fruition requires more. That's where mechanics analysis meshes with behavioral analysis. Now that we know an SK exists, we find who matches the profile of the SK: And it's pretty easy since I sniffed him out as scum already: Promethelax is 3rd party Serial Killer You can check my latest post for reasons why. His attitude and demeanor show that he doesn't truly care about town's interests. He comes in pointing fingers and blaming everyone even though he did nothing at all to help us hit the right lynch. The only reason people are wary of lynching him is that he initially voted BH (without any reasoning and justification), and BH happened to flip scum. There may not be that strong scum motivation for doing that, but there is strong 3rd party motivation. If you are right you look good, and if you are wrong you don't care. On May 19 2013 09:18 slOosh wrote: Hey Prom, sick pre-flip association reads. You go AWOL last night, blame BH that he calls you out on it but then proceed to blame me for being late for day 1 lynch? You call me desperate scum that went for a gambit on mylo, even though as scum I would know the KP formula and be able to do basic math? You say I chainsaw defend BH even though the person pushing BH was VE and I didn't attack him, nor you in any way whatsoever? Q: If HiroPro was the wrong lynch, why didn't Prome say anything about it? A: He is scum that parked his vote somewhere else to avoid any responsibility, and now is trying to pin the blame of the flip based on the result, not on the analysis / justifications / reasoning. GG. Your desire for a perfect game was your downfall. ObviousOne also brings up a good point on meta: he isn't acting like townProm. It looks similar but there are some disparities. What fits the bill? 3rd party - play as if for town (why not?) but your true motives and intentions peek out. On May 19 2013 18:43 ObviousOne wrote: Yeah, okay, let's look at it this way: Prom has 2 scum games listed in his profile, one was a newbie game from ages ago and then there was LX which was random as fuck obviscummy. Take a gander at British Empire Mini II. He was town there, his early game features tons of short posts, very few large posts/mega-cases. Lots of willingness to discuss things. I don't get that bossy tone that we're seeing here in his posts from British; he's very handily demonstrating inquisitive/paranoid tendencies in British. Here he's assuming a commanding presence, but the counter-point to that is that his expected activity would not really support that playstyle for this particular game. I need to read his filter through-and-through here but that's one major difference I'm noticing that really can't be explained unless he's intentionally trying to be tough guy here and what's the town motivation for sounding like a bully? Here his posts feel less like a discussion and more like a dictatorship. He's driving but he's AFK. GHOST-RIDE THE WHIP! Does that jive with what you're feeling? Can't really do a meta analysis of his mafia play when he has two games ever and they are so far apart / different in nature. I can just point out what I see as not really feeling like his town play and guess as to whether or not that makes him scummy. Last thought for the moment, need to look at how he voted for BH, like that entire conversation in context of the thread, that's where the Swedish Fish are likely hiding. Lastly, consider that Prom has a 3rd party mentality, look into his filter and observe how he talks about NKs. On May 13 2013 16:35 Promethelax wrote: goddamn it. OO is scum. None of us had a reasonable explanation for a nk on DP. I've been trying to think about who has a high opinion of DP's town play in this game and the ones I know of are me and scum team from The Game (bh/kita/bugs/geript) so I was looking at bh but rather liked his posting so far. Somehow OO has an explanation for the nk that makes perfect sense if he were scum. ##Vote: ObviousOne If you recall, Prom tried pushing a poor case on OO and used this as one of the supporting reasons. It's complete nonsense. It actually makes 0 sense as people later point out, that mafia wouldn't shoot 3P. Yet Prom doesn't actually think this one through - instead he jumps on and screams scumslip. I question him later about this poor point: On May 14 2013 01:28 Promethelax wrote: because dumb. It would be bad scum play obviously but I have seen scum players do it in the past when trying to look as if they are contributing/paying attention. It is one of the things scum have the easiest time being involved in. Ridiculous. "Hey Prom, why wouldn't scum use their 2KP last night to shoot BH?" "because dumb" See how ridiculous the reasoning is? He calls out OO for a scumslip, and justifies his read when called out by me by saying that scum is dumb to resolve the logical fallacy. This is backwards thinking. Pick a stance on someone, then try to find evidence to push said stance. Furthermore, there is a good chance that Prom freaked out when OO pointed out the existance of 3rd party and wanted all such discussion snuffed out. On May 17 2013 00:36 Promethelax wrote: Oh lol, of course Rayn and Viv get hit.I wanted to talk to them about things. Bastards. 3 NK though. I will look back at Vivax re: shooting. If he did shoot oats is townier if he didn't I'm confused, unless chooser was hit n1? He claimed RB and Kita was JK. Or regular medic saves/vets. Why does he even say this? He waffles around feigning confusion about what happened last night even though it was pretty clear what happened night 1. We were all operating under the assumption that scum had 2KP, they shot rayn and vivax and vivax shot vayne. We were keeping it simple. Prom can't, because he knows that one of the shots was his. He feels the need to mention NK even though it is straightforward. He doesn't come to a conclusion, but wants to let everyone know that he is confused - implicitly suggesting that he doesn't know anything about KP. Well, he went overboard - he clearly knew everything, and underestimated what town knew. Look at his gameplay this current cycle. Look how many people he calls scum. Look how he sets others up for future lynches if the current ones don't work out. He isn't figuring stuff out, he is trying to get everyone lynched. tl;dr (but if you skipped down to this without properly reading this, you probably don't care about town, i.e. you are Prom or scum) Mechanics analysis shows we have a 3rd party on board. Behavioral analysis shows that Prom is that 3rd party. Logical deduction dictates that we should kill him. K-I-S-S. ##Vote Promethelax | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
Scum KP is probably fixed at 1. There are 4 scum left so even if we kill one we won't drop their KP. Killing Prom today ensures that we drop anti-town KP by 1. It doesn't even matter if we lynch scum today, it isn't as good as lynching Prom. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 20 2013 14:42 Oatsmaster wrote: I dont understand how you got to a conclusion of 3P from 2 NKs night 0. 3 NKs night 1. 1 NKs night 2. Please elaborate. Also about the caring about nk's, he called me confirmed town off of my thinking that the DP shot was a vig shot. Which was weird. ##Unvote ##Vote Prome It is unlikely that Vivax was so compulsive to shoot night 0. So he shot night 1. Looking at his filter, it is most likely that he shot vayne. He died that night so he did not contribute to night 2 KP. Night 2 had a BH scumflip. That means that there is non-scum KP still. This can either be from a town vig or 3P. Night 2 only had a BH flip. That means that scum KP was stopped. This can either be a protective roll or 3P. So you have 2 scenarios: There is no 3p: 2 scum NK night 0 -> normal 2 scum NK, 1 town NK night 1 -> normal 0 scum NK, 1 town NK night 2 -> we have 2 protective roles that managed to block separate KP and we have another vig that saved their shot until now and then shot scum. There is 3p: 1 scum NK, 1 3p NK -> normal 1 scum NK, 1 3p NK, 1 town NK -> normal 0 scum NK, 1 3p NK -> normal. KISS. It is much much much much more likely that there is a 3p then we have 2 protective roles that both succeeded, independently and completely, and a vig saved their shot until now. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 20 2013 14:47 Oatsmaster wrote: so this is the Ace rule of always lynching 3P no matter what? Not sure what Ace rule you are referring to, but I'm almost positive he would agree with me. We lynch scum -> good. But scum still have 1KP (since OP suggests scum KP cannot be lowered). We lynch Prom -> great. Anti-town KP drops by 1. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
Only reason we shouldn't lynch Prom is if you think someone else has a higher chance of being 3p, and can prove it. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 20 2013 15:01 kushm4sta wrote: @sloosh I don't disagree with you. There is probably a 3rd party. And yes I think there is a good chance it's prome. It may also be prpl but I think he is more likely scum. BUT here is the real question.. why are you making a huge case on SK and voting SK instead of giving any effort towards finding scum? On May 20 2013 14:50 slOosh wrote: Not sure what Ace rule you are referring to, but I'm almost positive he would agree with me. We lynch scum -> good. But scum still have 1KP (since OP suggests scum KP cannot be lowered). We lynch Prom -> great. Anti-town KP drops by 1. If I had more time I would discuss the wagons etc, but I don't. I'm taking out what I perceive as the greatest threat. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 20 2013 15:16 kushm4sta wrote: @sloosh So you have no scumreads? if so who are they. not asking for cases From a general reread I'm leaning prplhz and after that Oats. | ||
slOosh
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slOosh
3291 Posts
The reason why I was able to figure out the NK resolution while everyone else couldn't is that I am a parity cop. I probably won't be around near deadline though and I'm scared you guys are gonna quick hammer me before I can post my checks so I'm gonna out them now. At least that way, scum have to really consider shooting me instead of trying to quick hammer me tomorrow. To help this, you guys should hold off discussion on my claim until night is over. That way, it makes the decision more difficult for scum to make - discussion about it now is playing to scum agenda. Night 0: I checked DarthPunk because of his miller claim, and likelyhood to die. No result obviously. Night 1: I checked ObviousOne because of his bad D1 play. It returned same, which is why I dropped my focus on him. Night 2: I checked Promethelax because On May 19 2013 09:18 slOosh wrote: Hey Prom, sick pre-flip association reads. You go AWOL last night, blame BH that he calls you out on it but then proceed to blame me for being late for day 1 lynch? You call me desperate scum that went for a gambit on mylo, even though as scum I would know the KP formula and be able to do basic math? You say I chainsaw defend BH even though the person pushing BH was VE and I didn't attack him, nor you in any way whatsoever? Q: If HiroPro was the wrong lynch, why didn't Prome say anything about it? A: He is scum that parked his vote somewhere else to avoid any responsibility, and now is trying to pin the blame of the flip based on the result, not on the analysis / justifications / reasoning. GG. Your desire for a perfect game was your downfall. It returned opposite. So ObviousOne was the same as DarthPunk, who is town, and Promethelax was opposite. No reason to doubt the checks, Prom's behavior matched up with the check, gotta lynch him. But wait, BH flipped scum - what's going on? KISS. Prom is scummy but not on scum team. Something funky happened with night 2 actions. => Prom is 3rd party SK. Wasn't too hard with the check to back me up. Now here's the problem. Somalian War Pirate (Serial Killer) - Now you appear as a passenger (Town) to everyone Town. Prom shows up as town. ObviousOne was checked as opposite with Prom. Framer died night 2 so there is little chance that someone framed Prom. It could be that scum have two framers because the one that flipped was a gimped version, but I doubt they would have framed Prom since it seemed like no one was backing me up. So the only explanation is that ObviousOne is scum that was framed to look town when I checked, which would make him same as DarthPunk, but come up opposite as Prom. Possible, since he escaped the noose barely day 1, and no doubt cops would want to look into him. I haven't been able to reread his filter though, so I'm not sure how much stock I would put in mechanics without behavioral backup. There is also a possibility of some type of busdriver role (probably scum because of balance), that maybe has relation with the votesteal that happened day 1. It might be that stealing the vote lets you bus with the player, but busdriver is pretty hard to use and that might be why we haven't seen a votesteal since that time (since if it was a straightforward votesteal, scum could have easily done so much more damage with it). That brings Oats to the table as suspect. Most of you guys don't trust me, so I'll refer you to Prom's last posts. He was SK, and he was trying to keep the numbers balanced. He was going after scum, and it was clear he was gunning for Oats. You can read his posts for analysis. So yea. Like I said before, please don't talk about this. Because if you do, scum will know if they have to shoot me because I won't be lynched, or keep me alive for the quick win. Also, they fear me getting another check off, so they will want to shoot me - if everyone comes in and says "yea we are lynching slOosh tomorrow" then scum will just shoot another townie and quick lynch me for the win. As for tonight's check, that will be hidden for obvious reasons. I'll post it up tomorrow if I'm still alive. Please don't quick hammer me before I can, in case there's some weird mechanics that will allow us to keep playing after I die. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Why is watcher a town role? If you can't watch for scum KP, then what else are you watching for other than blue roles? How does town watcher make more sense than scum watcher? Where is his other checks? Why bother checking DP, if not to bluesnipe? So dumb. You guys call me try hard and scum for it even though many of you acknowledge that my scum meta is lurky / quiet (lol at the fail pushes from Prom and OO on this point). Whatever. If trying hard makes you guys want to lynch me, I'll just shut up and hope someone can take a step back and think for themselves. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 22 2013 12:39 ObviousOne wrote: Because I wanted to check if he was shot protected or copped? Parity cop is the only cop check that makes sense on a claimed miller but no detective actions were taken. None. You lied despite your lie being half believable. Except for the part where Prome shows up town to a parity cop. And that all your checks were amazing despite your lack of attention to the game. You would have received Same Same of I was mafia. You claim Same Different. So you didn't consider maybe because I'm a parity cop that my first check doesn't count? You don't consider the possibility of a framer, given that we definitely flipped one in BH? And what's the point of checking for protect / cop other than to bluehunt? It's clear ObviousOne hasn't evaluated my claim thoroughly, which a blue role in this point of the game would absolutely do. And you guys are all too lazy and sheep him without thinking for yourselves. If you want to lynch me for being right, then whatever, I can't argue against that. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
I'm still confused about a couple of things. Was going after Prom the wrong move? I thought I was in danger given that I BH flipped, showing that I was pushing a town Hiro lynch over scum BH. Did I panic here? I knew when I pushed the Hiro lynch the reasoning was sound. Was I in a good position to defend any attacks against me? So I thought I was screwed, and given that SK shot BH, I thought SK would thus continue to keep shooting scum. So I saw it as a "I'm done anyway, might as well do a 1 for 1 trade", which is what happened. Was SK not that big a threat to scum team? | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
Now, does that mean the goal was good but the process was poorly executed? Or was the goal of eliminating SK not the best thing to do? If if was a matter of execution, would something like this be better? "hey these NKs are weird what is going on?" "maybe there could be SK?" "Prom is suspicious because [quote my post right before the mega case], right guys?" "SKs tend to look like [insert whatever heuristics I want to conjure up], and Prom and [add another players name] look like this" .... So as I write this ... it's hard to think, why I as town, would push SK over scum. Would this be where I make bs and try to pass it off? I don't know how to do point 2) without bringing up this point. | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
.... ohhh okok, so you have to lay down the premise of an SK first right, and establish that they are trying to balance numbers. So how do you push an SK lynch over a scum one? Or was this theoretically possible only because of town's poor condition, and wouldn't fly if they were a in better state? | ||
slOosh
3291 Posts
So a couple concerns. How can you selectively point out Prom as the pusher of the BH wagon? I thought he dropped a vote on him, and VE decided to push him hard (I could very well be wrong, I only skimmed the WoS / BH mess). On May 26 2013 09:06 Ace wrote: "SK was trying to balance numbers because he knows the Scum team was going to runaway with the victory. Look how hard Prom was pushing to get BH lynched." I'm not sure how I would argue this. Also, how does Prom being 100% sure BH is scum be indicative of him being SK? It makes him suspect, but if anything it would point him to be more likely scum than SK no? | ||
slOosh
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