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Hydra Mini Mafia II - Extra Nuke Edition - Page 5

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:13 GMT
#868
Prome completely disappeared as mafia in LX
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:23 GMT
#877
So I mentioned earlier that I'm not 100% sold on my town read of syllo, when in reality it was actually kind of weak. After rereading FMB's filter and looking over Mock, I don't know how much I really want to lynch either of them today.

So in re-evaluating, Syllo looks a lot worse. Observe:

On April 13 2013 18:31 SamuelLJackson wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2013 18:12 ShotgunBiceps wrote:
On April 13 2013 18:03 SamuelLJackson wrote:
It feels like marv is genuinely incredulous at the fact hapa is making some of the accusations and both of them have posted some content. Nothing seems to stand out so far so I don't think they are a priority at all right now.

Who do you think is the priority right now?

Players who haven't by the time of lynch produced meaningful content despite being here and the game being a hydra game. In a hydra format players should be more confident in sharing their thoughts and lacking the need to comment on irrelevant things as they can discuss things with their partner. Meanwhile mafia still feels the pressure of posting.

WaveOfCheesecake's has a bunch of fluff, but also a few serious posts that don't give me the impression of a curious townie. His read on you somewhat point towards the other way though regardless of your alignment.

Perhaps this doesn't quite apply to Syllo himself since sandro is apparently AFK, but up to this point, syllo's contributions to the thread, while appearing reasonable, were fairly irrelevant.

For reference:

On April 13 2013 16:34 SamuelLJackson wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2013 08:58 John Matrix wrote:
ok I just got modconfirmed town so my work here is done. Syllo will explain why I'm confirmed tomorrow. If he doesn't he's scum.

See you, I'm gonna go watch the watchmen again.

Because most* hosts are terrible** and only make jokes and interact with players who are town. This literally happens every game.

*everyone except you
**no offense intended


This post has some clear reason to exist, as Palmar did request it specifically, so it's excusable.

On April 13 2013 16:51 SamuelLJackson wrote:
How about we have either have everyone nuke themselves? It's seems very likely that at least mafia has a nuke, and possibly both mafia and town. It's 8-3, but, without taking nukes into account, that doesn't impact the number of mislynches we have, and therefore I think it's very unlikely that mafia has no roles given how much everyone being a hydra favors town. With this assumption at worst we get a 1-1 trade and if there's an anti-nuker, we could even decide to save one.


By that logic, then, this is his first organic contribution to the thread. I'm leery of this, knowing how much I generally despise set-up talk, ESPECIALLY at that point in the game when there is plenty of information at hand to generate reads from.

On April 13 2013 17:15 SamuelLJackson wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2013 15:32 MockArmor wrote:
On April 13 2013 14:33 FiveTouch wrote:
Also is that the only question you have? I find it hard to believe that the entire body of your thoughts hinge on the answer to that question.

The disappointing aspect of the game is that we have a bunch of people waiting for better scumhunters to "carry" them. And yet, their lack of participation makes it that much harder to find scum (like half the people in the game, so they can't all be scum...).

At the time of this post the game had been going on for less than 8 hours; did you genuinely find the thread worse than usual and their posting indicative of them waiting for others to "carry" them? Can you make a list of players (should be easy since you suggested that there were many) who you thought were doing this? You named one, but that was just a person who prima facie left due to time zone constraints.


This post seems fairly pointless. He seems to be starting to suspect Mock, but he actually draws no conclusions about alignment with this post.

On April 13 2013 17:30 SamuelLJackson wrote:
Palmar any thoughts on WaveOfCheesecake?


At the time I called this a town tell, but a weak one. It's bascially the basis of my town read on him.

On April 13 2013 18:03 SamuelLJackson wrote:
It feels like marv is genuinely incredulous at the fact hapa is making some of the accusations and both of them have posted some content. Nothing seems to stand out so far so I don't think they are a priority at all right now.


This also contains little in the way of real conclusions about alignment. They are "not a priority" but does that make them town reads or just null reads? Thus, Hapa's question, and the post I began this case with where syllo gives his scumhunting metric this game:

On April 13 2013 18:31 SamuelLJackson wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2013 18:12 ShotgunBiceps wrote:
On April 13 2013 18:03 SamuelLJackson wrote:
It feels like marv is genuinely incredulous at the fact hapa is making some of the accusations and both of them have posted some content. Nothing seems to stand out so far so I don't think they are a priority at all right now.

Who do you think is the priority right now?

Players who haven't by the time of lynch produced meaningful content despite being here and the game being a hydra game. In a hydra format players should be more confident in sharing their thoughts and lacking the need to comment on irrelevant things as they can discuss things with their partner. Meanwhile mafia still feels the pressure of posting.

WaveOfCheesecake's has a bunch of fluff, but also a few serious posts that don't give me the impression of a curious townie. His read on you somewhat point towards the other way though regardless of your alignment.


What is is sole scumhunt tactic? If you read into it, it's actually fucking lurker lynching, and he's stuck with that all the ay up to his latest post:

On April 15 2013 00:19 SamuelLJackson wrote:
NeutralSrvivngBalrog and FondleMyButtocks you two have around 4 hours to make yourself useful.

WaveOfCheesecake: Mockarmor isn't happening today; who do you actually want to lynch. Essentially your whole filter relates to mockarmor directly or indirectly.


It seems like he's only interested in lynching between the two lurkiest candidates. Most of the rest of his filter is giving out town reads and throwing "general" suspicion at players like myself and WoC.

Has he voted yet? No. By his own metric, he is a good lynch, because the amount of "worthwhile content" he has produced is very low, and not at all what I would expect from a town Syllogism.
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:31 GMT
#886
On April 15 2013 03:25 FiveTouch wrote:
yamato, while some of your concerns about syllogism may be valid (VE and I are both uncomfortable at how little he's leading/pushing town), a lot of what you talk about is just how syllogism talks stylistically.

~marv

You don't find it concerning that he simply wants to lurker lynch Prom?

I looked through Prom's filter and I'm not as confident in the lynch anymore. While he is usually more active as town, I also know from experience in the last hydra that he can be gone for days at a time. I don't think inactivity is alignment indicative in this case.

What I do see in his posting isn't super encouraging, because having Vivax/Kush as your main scumread is kind of a cop out, but he also does seem rather suspicious of the Balrog hydra, which is reasonable.
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:39 GMT
#895
Fuck, Prom, why couldn't you have been more active? Ugh.

I fucking hate lurker lynching, but his posting is rather meek and constantly excuse-ridden.

Whatever, for consolidation I'll lynch Prom.

##Unvote
##Vote FondleMyButtocks
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:40 GMT
#897
For the record, I would rather flip Syllo today, but even Palmar doesn't want to do that and he's the only other one that seems to think Syllo could be mafia.
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:42 GMT
#900
Here's my problem with WoC.

1. Wave joked around exclusively even when shit got serious. This is not behavior that I remember much of from Wave in any game yet. When I went and looked at Ego Mini, The Game and LX, none of those had much joking at all. As a matter of fact he gets into the think of things in all of those games. In this game he's just seemed to take a complete wait and see approach. This looks like a mentality shift to me from being town to being new scum.
2. In looking at how Wave tends to post in Ego and The Game, you get almost a series of Short Post-Short Post-Long Post that repeats itself. It's almost like he does that sort of posting unconciously. It's something he does from almost the beginning of the game. Yet here, he doesn't look to actually ever 'catch' into that typical town rhetoric from him. This to me looks like he's trying to be careful and not posting naturally.
3. Wave made a meta case. Wave tries to avoid meta cases like the plague. What's the point in him making a meta case? Either as a newer player or as a player who has often expressed his feelings about meta cases, who is going to listen or pay attention to it? No one. This is an easily dismissable case in addition to it being out of character for Wave. + Show Spoiler +
On April 14 2013 14:14 WaveOfCheesecake wrote:
I don't have the time for this now; if I feel it's appropriate I will post the meta case I have on Mocsta tomorrow. I can't be drawin into a million-hour discussion with Mocsta atm; I have too much work to do. The whole point of CC's discussion with Mocsta (for me) was to keep him talking so I could find out more. I don't care what the rest of town thinks about that conversation; the two of us know what we're doing.

And where the fuck are you getting that I have to check everything through with CC? All I said was I don't know why he finds Rayn scummy because we never discussed it.



Actually fuck it, I'll post the short form without proof atm; that'll have to be enough for now. If my meta reads are still shit then they're shit but that's why I wanted to hear more from GK---I'm not 100% cemented on my scumread/meta read and I was hoping GK could confirm in for me one way or another, which it hasn't.


In short, two things. At the time of be making my meta case, Mocsta had already posted a ton without calling anyone scummy; just making careful posts and not giving a solid read on anyone. This is indicative of his early game scum play from both NMM 37 and Hydra I. As town he throws out reads left and right constantly and ACTUALLY MAKES CASES to follow up with his reads and endless lines of questioning, which he hasn't done here. He votes for us here without actually even calling us scum---obviously amounts to the same thing but rubs me the wrong way.


Another random interesting meta tidbit to mention is Mocsta often enters a thread with much fanfare and hysteria, regardless of alignment (though MORE likely to do so as town.)
Hydra mini I (scum) - was there when the game started, lots of trolling, lots of joking around.
The Game (town) - replaced sandro after a day or so, lots of joking, calling people scum, whatnot.
Nomination (town) - jovial lighthearted posting style, throwing votes and shit around at game entry.
NMM 37 (scum) - Enters the thread with lighthearted tone and RNG fluff.

This game he was not around when the game started, and you'll notice he did NOT joke around at all, rather he got supersrs right from the get-go. I believe this is because entering a game late as scum, he missed the 'permissible first few hours joking-around period' and doesn't want to start fooling around when people are actually having discussion for fear he will look scummy for trying to derail. NOTE: He had NO problem joking around in the middle of The Game when he entered because he was town and had no reason to be afraid or look guilty.


Make of this case what you will for now. I might be able to expand on it further with better proof (especially since people are unlikely to go sifting through his meta themselves). CC was asking me to post this much earlier when the discussion was happening but I didn't want to derail trying to learn what I could at the time. I figure it's better out than in right now especially given thread sentiment. I'm going to attempt to study then go to bed but I might be able to check back on the thread a couple more times.
The only viable point in the whole case is perhaps the Mocsta not giving reads freely; in my memory, Mocsta was very willing to give reads in NMM37 (as for Hydra mini I don't remember as I read that game but wasn't terribly invested in it). One of his major points is that Mocsta didn't instantly enter joking around but in 3/4ths of the games he posted Mocsta joked around heavily in. This is not and was not a case made to be appreciated or noticed. It was a case to be made just get pressure off of him and nothing else.

I don't see why more people can't hop on the Geript Wagon of Justice (TM). Wave isn't approaching things from a towny aspect and isn't showing himself to be consistent with his town meta (no scum meta yet available). He also isn't approaching things in any sort of natural towny mentality or mindset. He's totes scum brahs
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:42 GMT
#902
On April 15 2013 03:41 FiveTouch wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 15 2013 03:40 InsertSmurfHere wrote:
For the record, I would rather flip Syllo today, but even Palmar doesn't want to do that and he's the only other one that seems to think Syllo could be mafia.


I think he could be mafia (VE thought so way early in the day actually), but I don't think it's a very clever play to lynch him today.

~marv

Okay, Marv.

Let's lynch Prom and pray, rofl.
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:43 GMT
#904
Wait we're voting for FMB? Policy on lurker Yamato?
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:45 GMT
#906
I'm talking with geript and trying to figure out which of WoC/MA/RM is mafia, what do you think?

I mean, one of them is LIKELY to be mafia, no?
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:47 GMT
#909
On April 15 2013 03:33 FiveTouch wrote:
I mean, my vote is on FMB, he looks to be a decent lynch, the only thing that makes me think he's not a decent lynch is the fact that everyone thinks he's a decent lynch. If you get what I'm saying.

~marv

I agree with this sentiment entirely. I find it odd that at various points many people have been suspicious of WoC but no one has really made a solid push towards them other than me

<--not yamato
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:48 GMT
#910
On April 15 2013 03:47 FiveTouch wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 15 2013 03:45 InsertSmurfHere wrote:
I'm talking with geript and trying to figure out which of WoC/MA/RM is mafia, what do you think?

I mean, one of them is LIKELY to be mafia, no?


I found raynmaster somewhat townie, although VE disagrees. There's a post from me a couple of hours ago where I outline what I think about MA, he could be mafia, but he's a mindfuck. WoC I'm also completely on the fence. I've spent a tonne of time on this game today with really unsatisfactory conclusions.

~marv

Well, I guess you and I are literally at the exact same point in this game.

Fuck.
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 18:54 GMT
#915
The ones that spring to mind are in The Game:
On March 18 2013 01:29 WaveofShadow wrote:
Ohai guise.
Geript no offense, but your meta reads are shit. I'll agree with you that something appears...off about zare this game, but glurio does make a point and zare's activity does go way down on weekends. I'm willing to keep an eye on him for now but I don't think he'd be my D1 lynch candidate.
I have to look into this Vivax/TPS thing right now because so far it seems the most compelling thing to me.
I was going to comment on Coag's bullshit at some point but I figure I have to trust the vets on his meta once again since they ended up being right about Grush last game.....sigh.

The thing is throughout the game he never trusted anyone's meta reads. He never commented on DYH's meta case on Zarepath; he never really responded to Sciberbia IIRC or my +1 of DYH's read. IIRC he didn't ever really ask about vets meta reads though. This recent case on Mocsta is the first Meta case of his that I can remember which seems exceptionally odd and out of character to me. I think Wave is capable of solid trains of thought, but in my experience that case misrepresents the facts some (could just be different perceptions) but looks like it's intentionally designed to go nowhere.
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 19:56 GMT
#941
I'd be inclined to lynch WoC, and I think geript agrees.

His "consolidation" post on Prom is hilariously weak.
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 19:56 GMT
#943
He also disagrees with the Prom lynch, so it would make me feel better if we lynched someone else.
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 20:00 GMT
#947
On April 15 2013 04:57 ShotgunBiceps wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 15 2013 04:56 InsertSmurfHere wrote:
I'd be inclined to lynch WoC, and I think geript agrees.

His "consolidation" post on Prom is hilariously weak.


I'd expect scum to add more window-dressing to a consolidation post than "eh sorry not active I'll just sheep thread sentiment"

I'd expect town to give more of a fuck about who they were lynching.
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 20:12 GMT
#953
On April 15 2013 05:03 ShotgunBiceps wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 15 2013 05:00 InsertSmurfHere wrote:
On April 15 2013 04:57 ShotgunBiceps wrote:
On April 15 2013 04:56 InsertSmurfHere wrote:
I'd be inclined to lynch WoC, and I think geript agrees.

His "consolidation" post on Prom is hilariously weak.


I'd expect scum to add more window-dressing to a consolidation post than "eh sorry not active I'll just sheep thread sentiment"

I'd expect town to give more of a fuck about who they were lynching.


That post seems written by a busy townie than a lazy scum.

Though by your heuristic (not giving a fuck about who dies), I'd prefer to lynch Vivax/Kush or Rayn. Both of them are exhibiting the same behavior.

Of those two, I'd prefer to lynch Vivax of those two. Rayn annoying regardless (having watched him in NMM30???) imo. I think him bouncing around is just how he operates not that it's terribly important right now. Vivax is vivax and I also dislike how he hasn't really tried to make himself known the way he has previously. Really though, WoC is a much better lynch imo; there are things that are distinctly off with him.
<--not yamato
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 20:12 GMT
#954
So I have this idea that I've used for a while when wanting to skim through filters quickly and learn about stances that people have taken. Usually I do this later in the game when looking for voting patterns or scum motivation, etc, but it can apply in singular cases, like I use it here.

I look at votes and the posts supporting the vote. Why? It usually gives me a good idea of the STRONG stances people are taking about scum reads in the game. If you make a case, doesn't a vote usually come along with it? If you lynch someone, don't you usually have a reason? In short, vote posts are good milemarkers of content WORTH reading in someone's filter.

So on WaveOfCheesecake, who are they voting and why?

On April 13 2013 07:51 WaveOfCheesecake wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2013 07:47 FondleMyButtocks wrote:
so many towns in this game, I wonder where scum is?

Right

##Vote: MockArmor

^^^
There.


Joke vote, aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand

On April 15 2013 03:51 WaveOfCheesecake wrote:
Hey guys. I'm attempting to catch up with the thread here but I'm casting in 10 minutes so I may not make it back in time for deadline if it goes 3 games.

For now, going to follow thread sentiment and vote FMB. I'm sorry I can't give much more than this atm, hopefully he flips red.
At the very least CC and I at least discussed him a little;' I know I personally thought his argument about how MA wasn't pushing a scum agenda was kinda stupid (it's somewhere back in my filter I think). If I get back with enough time before deadline I'll read into it more critically but this is it for now.

##Vote: FondleMyButtocks


This fucking post.

In 4 pages of filter, they have managed to bullshit around and shit up the thread without ever backing up their stances with votes. What midnset does this show? It's not one of scumhunting, because if you look at their filter, MOST of it is pointless arguing with Mock. I don't find that they are taking many strong stances, and this voting analysis PROVES it.

Why, in 4 pages of filter, have they not managed to scumhunt more than this? Their decision on who to lynch after being in the thread for that amount of time is SOLELY based on thread sentiment? What are they doing in all those other posts, then? Fucking spamming away pages, appearing active, and shitting up the thread with endless arguments.

Fuck lynching a lurker. Lynch WaveOfCheesecake.

##Unvote
##Vote: WaveOfCheesecake
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 20:12 GMT
#955
Specifically, why do people have a town read on WoC?
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 20:16 GMT
#958
On April 15 2013 05:14 SamuelLJackson wrote:
ISH, I looked at that post you quoted and found it the towniest thing of his filter.

I disagree.

If that's your stance, I'm a bit disappointed.
InsertSmurfHere
Profile Joined March 2013
288 Posts
April 14 2013 20:19 GMT
#961
On April 15 2013 05:17 ShotgunBiceps wrote:
Your WoC suspicions are more that he's playing bad rather than scummy. I'm not pleased with his play either, but I think it's townie. Again, his vote post on FMB is very genuine.

No. I clearly showed how he's acting differently and posting differently from his normal town self. On top of that, he's not following any normal town thought processes (think scum -> pressure -> vote). Instead it's (think scum -> mindlessly argue -> flail).
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