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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 06:28 raynpelikoneet wrote: i can tell you if prplhz is giving a gun to me i won't be shotting him. Why not? If he is a secret mason and you both die, even better. You save us a bunch of time. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 06:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: 6-2. Mafia kills 2 ppl. 4-2 You lynch one. 3-1 Mafia kills 2 ppl GG Your math is bad. 6-2 mafia kills 2 ppl. 4-2 You lynch one 4-1 mafia kills 2 people 2-1 gg. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 06:31 Hapahauli wrote: No. We shouldn't have rayn shoot prplhz or vice versa or whatever the crap. We should arrange it so that Sinani gets shot. That way we don't waste a day, and in the mind-boggling event that Sinani flips town, we have 48 hours to work through things. We have no way to guarantee that sinani dies. He would *PROBABLY* die if prplhz targetted him, just because if he is scum, then the setup seems a bit weak with 2 scum goons. But we don't actually know that he has a power, and there haven't been any unaccounted for night actions (that I know of). | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 06:36 marvellosity wrote: Not sure it does seem that weak with 2 goons, remember Acro's role wasn't just a 2 scum -> 2 townie swing, the time it takes to lynch those mafia we would have lynched allows nightkills too. It's actually 2 scum 1 townie dead night 2 exchanged for potentially 3 dead townies through NKs, and 2 dead townies through lynch :/ I'm going to go out on a limb and say Kurumi didn't think through those implications when he gave the double lynch power and vote-rigger to separate people. But I do see your point. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 06:40 Hapahauli wrote: Kei, just to confirm - it says explicitly in your role PM somewhere that Cora is a town mason right? Yes. 100%. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
IF prplhz is scum, AND he's telling the truth about how his role works, BUT he lied about his target from last night and gave a gun to sinani instead of Smurf, then scum could possibly kill 3 people tonight. But if they do, then that means we lynch prplhz tomorrow instead of sinani (so that prplhz doesn't get ANOTHER blue snipe shot off), because we know that sinani is in fact a vanilla scum. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Follow my plan. It is our only chance of winning. rayn: you HAVE to pick one of sinani/prplhz and hope against all hope that one of them is an eavesdropper mason. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 07:07 strongandbig wrote: you forgot and if scum have two "vanilla" in a game with this many town PRs That was implied with my later sentence  | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
It's really odd to me how you bitched about prplhz giving a gun to Smurf instead of sinani: But the point is if sinani flipped blue by now you would know who the rest of the scumteam is!! But you're so staunchly opposing any plan that results in you dying, even though that directly tells the [b]WHOLE THREAD[/b[ who the rest of the scumteam is. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Which is why, if you are town, you need to be hitting one of prplhz/sinani and praying. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 07:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: The only way i see mafia having 3 KP is if you tell prplhz to kill me, which ends up in losing a townie.. :E You're missing the point. If prplhz is scum and has been telling the truth about his role, he's probably going to use it tonight regardless. We have me+cora+hapa+you with "blue" claims. It really doesn't matter if he kills one of us, or you. But telling him who to kill means he has something to be accountable for. Killing anyone besides you proves that he's mafia, and killing you but you flip town ALSO proves that he's mafia. (*  isclaimer: at least within a relative certainty. I still don't think any of Hapa/S&B/marv are scum).Literally the only scenario that prplhz isn't proven to be mafia is if he shoots you and you flip scum. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 07:53 raynpelikoneet wrote: i will shoot marv if prplhz kills me. If you're town, then this is the fucking dumbest thing you've said all game. If you waste your shot on marv and we end up losing because of it, I will rage at you so fucking hard when the game is over. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 08:00 raynpelikoneet wrote: What if prplhz has a gun right now and it's in fact sinani who is giving out guns, and he gives prpl the gun again? How exactly did sinani give prplhz a gun when he was roleblocked last night? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
It's not about marv dying, its about shooting one of prplhz/sinani and hoping THEY are lying and are in the mason QT. There is literally a 0.0000001% chance that marv is scum. The chance that one of prplhz/sinani is lying is much higher than that. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 08:07 raynpelikoneet wrote: Blarf.. Srsly, look at my actions and my claim and see if they match. Then go on and tell me how there is a 0,0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance i am scum.. Really.. :/ Who cares? Its like baseball. You're pitching in the bottom of the 9th, up by 4 runs. The other team has the bases loaded, and the player at bad is on a hot streak with homeruns. You can either pitch to him, and possibly give up the game tyign homerun, or you can walk him which gives them an extra run, but brings up the next guy in the lineup who has never hit a homerun in his life. TL;DR - your role is the biggest threat to town. If you are scum, you could conceivably be killing 2 people BY YOURSELF tonight (or tomorrow night, or whenever you need to to ensure that the game ends), not counting any scum KP or abilities from your teammates. I might think that you are town, but 1) I am paranoid, and 2) i am not so much of an idiot to think that I have perfect reads. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Do you have any penalty for using you insta-kill shot on someone who isn't in your QT? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 09:07 raynpelikoneet wrote: I think i can't do it, because it's only possible if they have claimed their identity. So even if i go: "Shoot Keir/Cora/prplhz/sinani/marv/s&b" it won't help anyways because even if they were in our mason QT they had not revealed their identity. Okay that's what I was asking. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 08:08 raynpelikoneet wrote: You basically want to kill a townie instead of having someone prove they are mafia/town.. I can't believe you. Fine, lets talk about this point (for the sake of argument, we're going to assume that Lets say we tell prplhz to give a gun to marv. If he's scum (which if you are town, you should know that he's scum), he just uses the scum factional KP on marv. Marv never gets the gun, marv dies. How does this prove that prplhz is scum or town? You, prplhz, and sinani would all still be alive tomorrow. Or lets say he is town. He gives the gun to marv, and the scum *STILL* shoot marv. How do we know if prplhz is town or scum? So that idea doesn't work. Lets say we tell prplhz to give the gun to sinani: First off, there are 3 possible scum teams here: 1) sinani + prplhz 2) sinani + you 3) you + prplhz Now, in team 1, you have 3 possibilities: First possibility is that sinani is a vanilla goon, and prplhz does give him a gun. In whcih case, nothing happens, and all 3 of you are still alive tomorrow. How do we know if prplhz is scum or town? In this case, we would lynch sinani tomorrow to get rid of the gun, which leaves you and prplhz still alive, but only 1 lynch left How does the town know which of you is scum? LYLO with rayn and prplhz still alive. Second possibility is that sinani is a power role, so prplhz doesn't give him a gun. Prplhz holds his power but says he gave a gun to sinani, and all 3 of you are still alive tomorrow. We lynch sinani and he flips a power role, so we know that prplhz is lying. Third possibility is that sinani is a power role and prplz still gives him a gun. Sinani flips scum, and you and prplhz are still alive. We can't know which one of you us scum, but we can lynch both of you so it doesn't matter. Team 2) 2 possibilities. Lets say sinani is a vanilla goon, and prplhz gives him a gun. All 3 of you are alive tomorrow, and we lynch sinani. He flips goon. We don't know which one of the two of you are scum. In the meantime, you have 2 nights to go using all of your KP powers on town. Second possibility is that sinani is a power role. He flips power role tomorrow. Same situation as possibility 3 earlier, except you're scum this time, so you either have tonight to kill off all the masons, or you talk prplhz into getting lynched before you, then you kill off all the masons tomorrow night and win because of all your KP. Team 3) There's really only 1 possibility here. You insta-kill Hapa, You shoot one of me/Cora. Prplhz shoots the other, and you use faction KP to kill one of the remaining townies. 4 people dead, Game over. So out of 6 scenarios, 1 of them proves that prplhz is scum, 1 of them lets us kill all 3 of you, and 3 of them mean town loses. The last one comes down to LYLO with 2 un-confirmeds. ~40% chance for town to win. Now, for a little extra fun, lets say we tell prplhz to give the gun to you, and you die: Team 1) Confirms them both as scum. We hope there isn't a fuckton of KP, and lynch both of them to win. Team 2) Confirms sinani as mafia. Team 3) You and him would just go on a rampage. Exact same as the team 3 scenario up top. So in one scenario, town loses. In one of them, scum is confirmed, but the game comes down to night actions. In one of them town wins 100%. I would say...~60% chance for town to win, here. And lastly, lets say we tell prplhz to give the gun to you, and he doesn't: Team 1) This is the confirmed scumteam Team 2) Makes no sense for a town prplhz to not give you the gun if we tell him to. Discard. Team 3) Same as all the other Team 3 scenarios. So what do we learn from this little experiment? Well, first off, if the scum team is prplhz + rayn, the game is already over. But that would put the scum team with a multi-shot mason vig, a blue sniper, and a vote rigger. Insanely OP, and hardly logical. So the only real possibilities (that matter in any way) are the Team 1 and Team 2 scenarios. 2 of the 3 possible Team2 scenarios, town just flat out loses. The only possible way for town to win with Team2 is for prplhz to kill rayn tonight. Team1 scenarios get a little trickier. If we tell prplhz to shoot rayn, we 100% confirm prplhz's alignment based on what happens (if he kills rayn and rayn flips town, then prplhz has to be scum. If he refuses to shoot rayn, then prplhz has to be scum. If he kills rayn and rayn flips scum, then prplhz is town [because otherwise it would be a Team3 scenario, and he wouldn't have shot rayn and instead just won the game]). TL;DR - Directing prplhz's shot can't guarantee us the win, no matter who the shot goes to. But town's chance of winning (if we can't all decide with 100% certainty which of prplhz or rayn is scum), improves drastically by having prplhz shoot rayn instead of sinani. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 03 2013 10:24 prplhz wrote: i just don't want it to backfire so i'm hitting sinani. if you're scum then the game is for town anwyay, doesn't even matter if i'm lynched first. What? If he is scum and you are town, then scum wins 99.99999%. He can insta-kill Hapa. Kill me/cora. Factional KP. And you're giving sinani a gun so we HAVE to lynch him tomorrow. You don't even make sense. | ||
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