|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 00:11 cDgCorazon wrote:
Hey guys, I know I haven't been active lately. I've been actively lurking for the past day because I've had nothing good to say, so I wasn't going to say anything at all. Here's what I'm thinking about for the end of D2:
My first vote is on Yamato. That won't change. He's given up anyways and if we don't lynch him today he's going to shit up the thread some more.
My second vote, while currently on Prp, could possibly change to either Sinani or Acro. Both Prp and Sinani played terrible D1's and continued to be useless and scummy on D2. I have a huge problem with that.
Acro just lied about VT, and I'm highly inclined to lynch all liars. Part of me wants to use the opportunity for a double lynch to check if Acro is really "unlynchable" or just lying scum.
I'll take a closer look at Acro after work, and get back to you guys before the day is over.
This is pretty much what I want to do.
I'm not going to be around for the lynch because I'll be out for dinner, so I'd like Hapa to organise it if he agrees. It very much depends on the mechanics of Acro's role. If it's like Personality, the 2nd place will get lynched so Sinani can be put in to 2nd place. It really feels like we should be able to get something down with Acro's unlynchable thing.
I spent some time in both rayn and Acro's filter this afternoon. The most notable thing about rayn's filter is the evolution of his Nisani/Smurf reads on Day 1. OO was his first scumread, then OO/Oats, then OO/Oats/Smurf. This remained somewhat consistent, until Nisani suddenly popped up, although I can't discern good reasons for Nisani popping up. At some point Nisani was clearly scummier than Smurf, it's all a bit of a mystery.
As for Acro's filter, what Kei picked up on is the weirdest thing about Acro. It's basically his entire attitude on me. I was clearly a mafia-read for Acro towards the end of Day 1. We have this post:
On March 27 2013 22:29 Acrofales wrote:
Oh, and I'm voting alongside Marv, which means I am either wrong about Marv or about Nisani, or Marv is playing tricksy scum.
Fuck this. Nisani is scum. We lynch him, then worry about other people.
He's apparently worried he's voting alongside me. Look at the wording - I am either wrong about marv or Nisani. The implication being that if Nisani is mafia I look much better, if Nisani is town, I look worse.
Come the town-flip of Nisani, I imagine I should be looking horrendous, but instead Acro decides to make a slam-dunk case on Smurf. So it looks, basically, that I am a scumread Day 1, I'll look worse if nisani flips town, Nisani flips town, but Acro backs off me.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 02:07 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 02:03 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 31 2013 02:00 strongandbig wrote:On March 31 2013 01:55 Oatsmaster wrote:
Thoughts on Rayn everybody?
Considering he flipped scum in Newbie XXXIX One scum game does not a meta make (have you read the postgame comments in The Game thread?) I don't think it should have much impact on how we evaluate his play this game, unless there are specific things people were seeing from him which they thought "this specific thing wouldn't come from a scummer," and he did those specific things in that other game. Not considering that he flipped scum in Newbie XXXIX. Are you deliberately ignoring the question? Lol no, I'm deliberately saying I don't think it's a good question. I think unless someone was predicting a town read on him on certain things that they thought were "town tells" but that he did as scum, then his alignment in that game shouldn't have a big effect on analysis of him in this one.
rayn was quite clearly the townleader in that game, with high activity and contributions. For a new player this is especially unusual, and so the lazy heuristic I was using here of active, paranoid townie is something that needs to be reconsidered in light of the fact he was far more capable as mafia than a newer player (or indeed, 95%+ of normal players) usually is.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 03:30 Keirathi wrote:@marv: Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 01:03 Keirathi wrote:Anyways I want to talk about this a bit more: On March 30 2013 20:06 marvellosity wrote:On March 30 2013 19:57 ObviousOne wrote:
I'm still around because I'm stupid and drank all of the coffee. It didn't make me smarter though so talk me through it when you get around to it. Just read what Kei wrote for a start. The thing to think about is when is someone "doomed". A mafia's objective changes markedly at this point, and goes into wifom-mode, rather than push-a-mislynch-mode.I can't remember Kei's reasons for thinking sinani and Acro couldn't be mafia together even though I only read them 20 minutes ago, but I do remember thinking that they weren't good reasons. lol. Obviously I am aware of that, since it is part of my case against Acro, even if it is just speculation. And part of why I don't think Acro and sinani are scum together. Go back and look through the night. There really was very little discussion about sinani. You mentioned him once "sinani looks worse by default" or something like that. OO posed those questions that kind of had a "sinani is scum" assumption behind them. But there really wasn't much actual talk about sinani. Almost all of the night phase revolved around you/Smurf/Me+cora/OO. So, at that point, I DO think Smurf was doomed. But I do NOT think sinani was doomed in any way. Therefore, since I think Acro is scum, I don't think there was any reason for scum Acro to bus two teammates so hard. **SNIPPED OUT OF MY FOLLOWUP POST*** EBWOP: I should also say that I don't think that it is impossible for Acro and sinani are scum together. I just don't find it very likely at all, especially if Smurf is mafia. And I'm kind of taking it for granted that Smurf is mafia since he gave up. Agree or disagree?
Kind of agree in an uncomfortable not-sure-if-I-agree way.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Perma masons AND a mason circle?
Fuck me.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 03:55 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 03:55 marvellosity wrote:
Perma masons AND a mason circle?
Fuck me. It says that there is a mason circle in the OP. Not reading? 
Yes, I thought that would be you and Corazon, and someone would be randomly given access to your QT but told not to post. Specifically Grack in fact was my thoughts, given his role description.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Okay, that makes sense. I really wish I had time to think about all these masons and roleclaims and Acro but I'm going out to dinner in 15 minutes. I will probably sheep Hapa in whatever decision he makes, vote-wise (unless it's me, naturally).
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 04:05 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 04:04 Hapahauli wrote:On March 31 2013 04:00 marvellosity wrote:
Okay, that makes sense. I really wish I had time to think about all these masons and roleclaims and Acro but I'm going out to dinner in 15 minutes. I will probably sheep Hapa in whatever decision he makes, vote-wise (unless it's me, naturally). I'm not sure yet. I want to hear from Acro about this "you can't lynch me" stuff before I committ. rayn said he claimed vote rigger. Unlynchable townie vote rigger? That seems hard to believe.
I agree with this. It seems a lot on one role too.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Also, in the vote thread:
On March 31 2013 04:01 InsertSmurfHere wrote:
##vote insertsmurfhere
##vote acrofales
lol. I'm going to switch my sinani vote to Acrofales. I will be able to check in on my phone before deadline to change my vote if there's important developments / depending on what Hapa (and kei to an extent) think.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
One other thing - it's my impression from Kurumi's last mod-note that you can't be lynched without a majority. So I guess Acro either gets lynched or no-one, unless his power is completely OP.
Anyway, catch you all later.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
... the vote-rigger can a) make a double lynch and b) completely change the results of a double lynch?
what is this bullshit?
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
I'm sorry, but completely changing the result of TWO lynches is fucking ridiculous.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
That is a little better. And I'm probably going to get shot which is shit (see this mafia? leave me alone).
Is it worth the shooter claiming tomorrow or should we protect their identity?
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
If sinani isn't mafia then Oats or prplhz are mafia and I don't get that very much. There's one thing I have to look into with Oats tomorrow to check how I'm feeling.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 07:28 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 07:27 marvellosity wrote:
If sinani isn't mafia then Oats or prplhz are mafia and I don't get that very much. There's one thing I have to look into with Oats tomorrow to check how I'm feeling. I'm thinking Smurf + prplhz + rayn tbh.
You really think Smurf hard-defended a mafia prplhz on meta?
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 07:30 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 07:28 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:28 Keirathi wrote:On March 31 2013 07:27 marvellosity wrote:
If sinani isn't mafia then Oats or prplhz are mafia and I don't get that very much. There's one thing I have to look into with Oats tomorrow to check how I'm feeling. I'm thinking Smurf + prplhz + rayn tbh. You really think Smurf hard-defended a mafia prplhz on meta? Yes. 1) It's yamato (supposedly). And 2) Look, you're calling him town now. It obviously served his purpose. You think its more likely that scum Acro called out his scum buddy for no reason? :o
yes, I do think that's more likely.
It's so far out of my zone that I would ever falsely hard-defend someone, with passion like that. Calling out a mafia team-mate is fucking easy by comparison, imo.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 07:33 Hapahauli wrote:
prplhz - He's more active than normal, but also feels so goddamn detached. I can't put my finger on it, but it's off. He's coming in the thread and pretty much openly sheeping people. The suspicions that he's pursued on D2 (corazon... what?) are weird as hell.
Yamato hard-defending prplhz is weeeeeird, but there's usually something I could point to in prplhz's filter that's townie when he's town, and I've gotten none of that this game.
One might say this is more likely to be a paranoid townie, than a mafia who patently knows he's being ridiculous.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 07:36 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 07:31 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:30 Keirathi wrote:On March 31 2013 07:28 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:28 Keirathi wrote:On March 31 2013 07:27 marvellosity wrote:
If sinani isn't mafia then Oats or prplhz are mafia and I don't get that very much. There's one thing I have to look into with Oats tomorrow to check how I'm feeling. I'm thinking Smurf + prplhz + rayn tbh. You really think Smurf hard-defended a mafia prplhz on meta? Yes. 1) It's yamato (supposedly). And 2) Look, you're calling him town now. It obviously served his purpose. You think its more likely that scum Acro called out his scum buddy for no reason? :o yes, I do think that's more likely. It's so far out of my zone that I would ever falsely hard-defend someone, with passion like that. Calling out a mafia team-mate is fucking easy by comparison, imo. I disagree, but whatever. It may not even be important. d1 12/4 (Lynch town) n1 11/4 (scum shoot town, KP blocked) d2 10/4 (lynch 2 townies) n2 8/4 (town vig shoots scum, scum shoots 2 townies) d3 6/3 (lynch scum) n3 6/2 (scum shoots 1 townie) d4 5/2 At which point we have a mislynch to give. Can lynch all 3 of them, (Disclaimer: this is assuming 4 scum and KP = #mafia/2 rounded up)
Have you ever hard-defended a team-mate over the course of literally 15 posts? On meta? Can you even envisage it? I'm seriously struggling to.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 07:38 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 07:36 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:33 Hapahauli wrote:
prplhz - He's more active than normal, but also feels so goddamn detached. I can't put my finger on it, but it's off. He's coming in the thread and pretty much openly sheeping people. The suspicions that he's pursued on D2 (corazon... what?) are weird as hell.
Yamato hard-defending prplhz is weeeeeird, but there's usually something I could point to in prplhz's filter that's townie when he's town, and I've gotten none of that this game.
One might say this is more likely to be a paranoid townie, than a mafia who patently knows he's being ridiculous. Well he pushed Cora more because he "didn't like a post of his" rather than because Cora was scum. Anyway, I do want comments on Oats. Because I think I'm on to something.
With what? His claim reaction? Why? I spilled the beans in a single explicit sentence and there was literally nothing else to say about it, it's an open and shut case.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 07:43 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 07:39 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:38 Hapahauli wrote:On March 31 2013 07:36 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:33 Hapahauli wrote:
prplhz - He's more active than normal, but also feels so goddamn detached. I can't put my finger on it, but it's off. He's coming in the thread and pretty much openly sheeping people. The suspicions that he's pursued on D2 (corazon... what?) are weird as hell.
Yamato hard-defending prplhz is weeeeeird, but there's usually something I could point to in prplhz's filter that's townie when he's town, and I've gotten none of that this game.
One might say this is more likely to be a paranoid townie, than a mafia who patently knows he's being ridiculous. Well he pushed Cora more because he "didn't like a post of his" rather than because Cora was scum. Anyway, I do want comments on Oats. Because I think I'm on to something. With what? His claim reaction? Why? I spilled the beans in a single explicit sentence and there was literally nothing else to say about it, it's an open and shut case. The fuck are you talking about?
you're saying he never mentioned the s&b claim again. I said to you/the thread that s&b was practically confirmed town because any counterclaim would mean he died immediately. There's literally nothing else to be said in the thread about the claim after that point.
|
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 07:46 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 07:38 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:36 Keirathi wrote:On March 31 2013 07:31 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:30 Keirathi wrote:On March 31 2013 07:28 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:28 Keirathi wrote:On March 31 2013 07:27 marvellosity wrote:
If sinani isn't mafia then Oats or prplhz are mafia and I don't get that very much. There's one thing I have to look into with Oats tomorrow to check how I'm feeling. I'm thinking Smurf + prplhz + rayn tbh. You really think Smurf hard-defended a mafia prplhz on meta? Yes. 1) It's yamato (supposedly). And 2) Look, you're calling him town now. It obviously served his purpose. You think its more likely that scum Acro called out his scum buddy for no reason? :o yes, I do think that's more likely. It's so far out of my zone that I would ever falsely hard-defend someone, with passion like that. Calling out a mafia team-mate is fucking easy by comparison, imo. I disagree, but whatever. It may not even be important. d1 12/4 (Lynch town) n1 11/4 (scum shoot town, KP blocked) d2 10/4 (lynch 2 townies) n2 8/4 (town vig shoots scum, scum shoots 2 townies) d3 6/3 (lynch scum) n3 6/2 (scum shoots 1 townie) d4 5/2 At which point we have a mislynch to give. Can lynch all 3 of them, (Disclaimer: this is assuming 4 scum and KP = #mafia/2 rounded up) Have you ever hard-defended a team-mate over the course of literally 15 posts? On meta? Can you even envisage it? I'm seriously struggling to. Obviously you know that I haven't since I've only played scum twice and you were in both of those games My problem with his hard defense was just that he was almost solely nitpicking at Hapa and I about wording and specifics. And some of his points were just so blatantly wrong. Blehhhh, I'll think about it some more.
Just go read Smurf's filter from like the beginning of page 2 onwards. Look at all the examples he brought up, how firmly he believed in what he was saying. I find it so hard to wrap my head around that he was performing that defence on someone he knew was mafia.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
