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On February 27 2013 07:42 thrawn2112 wrote:
so we have two people up for lynch. we have to lynch at least one of them.
1) both scum. this is dumb but if it's true then it's not a possibility worth worrying about. win-win
2) both town. if this is the case then we are fucked either way. lose-lose
3) one town, the other scum. win-lose
Option 3 is the only option worth worrying about. If 1 is true, it's a win-win and if 2 is true we're in a lose-lose. So there's not much use in considering either option as a real possibility. 1/2 might be true but in either case there's nothing we can do about it.
So now we are in a position where it makes sense that for the rest of the cycle, we might as well at least assume that only one of them is likely to be scum. Don't place your votes based on which option you think is the lesser of two evil, I want reasons for why the person you're voting for has a higher chance to flip scum than the other.
Which explanation makes more sense:
A townie haves an emotional omgus reaction and duels his accuser or a mafia player making a similar omgus styled play?
Then you have to look at each of their filters.
Even if you like keir's point about adam's possible self-promotion, you cannot ignore that it's all keir has talked about. He's said a few things about how I wasn't playing up to my town meta, and lately he's said that I've been hopping around on thread sentiment. These points are lazy and anyone could make them. And those 2 'reads' are keir's entire contribution to the game thus far. I am having a hard time believing that out of all the things that have happened in the thread, an early meta read on me and the tunneling of a single point about adam is all he would be able to come up and be suspicious of if he were town.
i change my mind about thrawn what a useless post.
your scum aren't you?
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I just don't like how everyone is avoiding talking about keir. There's a few pages of meta analysis on Adam and the implications of him calling out that duel have already been discussed to death. Yes, there are things about adam that are worthy of suspicion. But how is everyone willing to write off what keir's done? Nobody has tried to argue about why keir isn't scum. The ONLY way I'm willing to not vote for keir is if we're going to no lynch (thus double lynch)
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iamp what is useless about talking about why keir could be scum, which nobody seems to want to do?
imo keir is the only sensible lynch and i'm having a hard time understand all these arguments that say otherwise. (cept for double lynch, but really only as a backup plan in case nobody will only lynch keir. the arguments concerning double lynching don't really have much to do with whether keir or adam is more likely to be scum, just that statistically it might be a better move than one lynch)
there is only one thing that makes me concerned to lynch keir and that's how easily and peacefully hapa voted for keir. but we can deal with that later
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I dont know thrawn, your points seem to be meta related, but keir isnt lurky as scum either.
The point is that they are both not playing to their own metas, but scum Adam has so much more to gain from this duel.
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On February 27 2013 08:49 Oatsmaster wrote:
I dont know thrawn, your points seem to be meta related, but keir isnt lurky as scum either.
The point is that they are both not playing to their own metas, but scum Adam has so much more to gain from this duel.
it's not meta related if his play here doesn't match up with his town or scum play. I'm not making a meta case, I'm making a "what has keir done this game?" case. the issue is that what's he's brought forth in terms of scumhunting so far has been extremely lackluster. ffs, he's only mentioned 2 players this whole time.... look at his filter. He ONLY talks about adam/thrawn. For both reads, he's been repeating himself for awhile now. Look at times he talks to players that aren't thrawn/adam... does he look suspicious of them? Everything he says that doesn't relate to his thrawn/adam reads is said in the most neutral and non inflammatory manner possible. In fact even when he's talking to either thrawn/adam, I can barely detect suspicion in those posts.
he's not really scumhunting, he doesn't sound suspicious in general, and the two things he claims to be most suspicous of are either pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things (the single point about adam) or ridiculously easy statements to make (lurking thrawn meta read)
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Adam, where are you? Sleepy time is over in Australia.
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I take sleep where I can get it.
Reading what has transpired since last night now.
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On February 27 2013 05:55 Acrofales wrote:
Where did Sylencia disappear to... again?
To sleep? I went off at 12am... I don't really understand why there's such a need to announce everything you're doing. In any case, if you're asking that were you going to follow up with a question? It's not like I'm incapable of reading a question you post in advance...
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On February 27 2013 10:00 Sylencia wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 05:55 Acrofales wrote:
Where did Sylencia disappear to... again? To sleep? I went off at 12am... I don't really understand why there's such a need to announce everything you're doing. In any case, if you're asking that were you going to follow up with a question? It's not like I'm incapable of reading a question you post in advance...
syl can you answer my question from earlier:
On February 26 2013 19:00 thrawn2112 wrote:
syl why isn't keir scummy to you? what's so surprising about people wanting to lynch him?
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also zarepath get in here I wish to speak to you
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On February 27 2013 10:00 Sylencia wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 05:55 Acrofales wrote:
Where did Sylencia disappear to... again? To sleep? I went off at 12am... I don't really understand why there's such a need to announce everything you're doing. In any case, if you're asking that were you going to follow up with a question? It's not like I'm incapable of reading a question you post in advance...
I need to ask you questions in order to prod you into scumhunting now? What, I have to sing you lullabies too?
Your reads so far total:
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.
.
Yeah, that was about it. You're voting Adam, because he is "least useful to town", not because you think he's scum. You have not mentioned Keirathi at all and you have stated repeatedly your reads will come "tonight", whenever that is supposed to be.
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Also, lol at the timing on those Ozzie posts. Unless both of you live in Perth, the timing on those posts is uncanny... almost as if you weren't reading the thread and were chumming up in the scumQT until someone mentioned you need to stop lurking and haul ass into the thread.
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I will consolidate why I find keriathi scummy, as some people seem to be missing it in my filter.
His play is lacking conviction and curiosity. I use this to catch many scum players because it is extremely hard to fake. It is what made my vote on Sandroba so easy in ChronoTrigger mafia, when some of the town seemed undecided.
On February 26 2013 11:01 Keirathi wrote:No solid reads yet. I'm interested in thrawn, obviously. The town thrawn I know is logical and takes his time to look at all sides of the situation, and I just haven't seen that from him this game. He's just been flying by the seat of his pants (iamp scum, no town, no scum again! Hapa should be a dueler tomorrow!) with little to no reasoning for his "reads".
He claims to have no reads, and in the same post, posts about thrawn not playing in line with what he expects from 'town thrawn' - so a read. He doesn't pursue this read with any form of questioning, just leaves it hanging.
Then his case on me, and it is a case, he even bolded my name at the top, suggested that I could be acting and how my actions were nefarious. We go back and forth and he ends up arguing that, among other things, I may never have to back up my desire to duel, which is somehow scummy.
When this case gets shot down, he starts to back out in a "I never called him scum, don't put words in my mouth" kind of way, which is exactly what I tried in Hero mafia as scum.
Since he's gone back to doing nothing. He's produced two reads for the game, neither of which he considers reads, neither of which he calls scum.
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lol adam I thought you were town when you called for the duel but each thing you've posted since then is scummier than what came before it
why did you shoot keir right then and therre? why not dino? any scum reads you have outside of those too would also help.
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On February 27 2013 10:58 thrawn2112 wrote:
lol adam I thought you were town when you called for the duel but each thing you've posted since then is scummier than what came before it
why did you shoot keir right then and therre? why not dino? any scum reads you have outside of those too would also help.
How is that post scummy? I specifically outline my thoughts and why I am thinking the way I am.
I did it because you looked like you were backing out and I believe its the right move.
Why not deino? because he hasn't even returned to the thread. Twice now we've got "be back soon" and then nothing. I wanted to converse with Deino more before I called a duel with him, I still think hes stalling scum, I still want to duel him too.
Ill go over my reads in the next half hour as I write them up.
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btw thread: dudes who don't vote or don't state intentions to vote soon are gonna start getting all sorts of nasty looks. there's a very small portion of the thread who has actually bothered to discuss which of adam/keir is more scummy in a serious and helpful way.
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Ok thrawn here with a baby on my lap. what do you want
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Brunei Darussalam622 Posts
Late day at the office. Got back about an hour ago and caught up on the thread. I promised an investigation into the duelers, so here it is.
Adam4167
+ Show Spoiler +
Timeline:
- immediately busts into the thread with a vigilante disposition and challenges me to a duel.
- begins to argue with marv
- cuts me down
- prods Corazon a few times, calls him uninteresting, then drops him
- tells Zarepath he's given out reads on several players, when actually he has done very little other than accuse me of scum and clear Corazon.
- clears Oats
- supports Thrawn/Keir duel.
- threatens Keir with a duel
- clears Thrawn
- defends his stance a bit more, then snaps a duel on Keir
- general posturing, says his mafia meta is lurky and passive, calls Yamato delusional
- reinforces that his play isnt mafia motivated a few times.
- outright claims town
Summary:
I have to admit that I am a bit biased due to our previous interactions, but I can't shake the feeling that this guy is scum. He seems to be trying to cause as much chaos as possible, then once all the shit has been slung, reinforces over and over again that he is town. He also seems to be exclusively picking on the weaker less experienced players in the game. I don't think I've seen him outright challenge any of the vets, other than town marv (and keir now, of course). It's true that he has been more active this game, which directly goes against my previous lurker meta reads on him, but this is also something he has self-identified and harped on in the thread a few times... It's like he is almost begging us to believe that his activity is a clear indicator of his township.
Keirathi
+ Show Spoiler +
Timeline:
- disagrees with Thrawn's stance to just 'let things happen as they will'
- says Thrawn is currently his biggest scumread
- puts suspicion on Adam due to his rogue bravado
- tries to advance our dueling policy
- says he is willing to duel Thrawn
- argues a bit more with Adam about dueling policy
- gets called out by Adam
- general defending
Summary:
As I said earlier, I was completely surprised by Adam snapping on Keir. I've gone through Keir's filter a few times since the duel was called, but I still can't find anything that sticks out as obviously scum motivated. Other than a bit of back and forth banter mostly discussing dueling policy, he has kept a relatively low profile. The only real aggression shown has been directed towards a scummy looking Thrawn. It's true his activity has been a little slow, but not so much that I'd see any reason to raise any alarms. Overall, I'd say he has been playing it overly safe, if anything.
So with that, I feel compelled to cast my vote now. Considering how the game started, I don't think it's going to surprise anyone.
##Vote: Adam4167
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On February 27 2013 11:23 zarepath wrote:
Ok thrawn here with a baby on my lap. what do you want
i wanna know why it's so hard to tell what you really think about the upcoming lynch. you said a bunch of stuff about how you hate the duel, how neither adam or keir are suspicious enough to be lynched on their own... but you also made a big case against adam and called him "really scummy." yet you aren't voting for him? wtf are your actual motivations?
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EPT
