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On February 26 2013 19:54 Oatsmaster wrote:
I want to know what you think.
Lol.
Someone getting feisty huh?
It's all there in the posts above. Why would I "forget" about the single-most salient thing the player has done all game?
Anyway, your stubborn lack of reading anything people say in the thread and then asking for the exact same thing moments afterwards is getting on my nerves. I will probably ignore most of your questions from now on. Start reading the fucking thread and posting contributions instead of stupid questions.
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@Keirathi: is GSL Open your only scum game ever?
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I'm reevaluating shit. What do you think? Is Adam scum? Is Keirathi scum? Both? Neither? How about some reads instead of your running commentary on the game?
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Okay, my meta-analysis of Adam is pretty much done and confirmed my earlier thoughts about him. He is not a Kush-esque player who is prone to doing crazy shit because he feels like it. Here is his self-analysis from WLIIA:
On November 01 2012 08:33 Adam4167 wrote:
Well this got interesting. Blazinghand, you are cherry picking my game history to support your meta case.
X marks the spot. You ignore more recent games such as Aperture Mafia and wiggles mini mafia II - where I did not launch into cases with my first post - both of which I was town.
You're taking a year old game, my FIRST game, and a post that I later admit to being drunk when writing and use that as evidence for aggression which you believe is lacking in this game.
Zebras. I handled you more carefully this game because I've seen your horrendous tunnel-vision in TL51 - something that was a large distraction to town.
Bolded for emphasis. Adam is not an aggressive jump-the-gun kinda guy as town. Now he claims this hasn't worked for him in Chrono Trigger, however I didn't see him change his style in LVIII or when he replaced into LIX. Why does he suddenly feel the need to change up his playstyle now?
Given that his playstyle is wildly different from any previous meta, we have to take it at face value. I have already stated why I think the gung-ho duel is scum motivated, but just to hammer in the point, here is bang bang mafia 2:
+ Show Spoiler [brief synopsis] +MZ seriously jumping the gun (first post of D3): On June 16 2012 17:27 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
After the game I'll tell you what you should have done differently supersoft.
##Shoot: Supersoft
Ya'll ready for a pro gf snipe? Of course SS flipped town. This then dominated the thread for the next day, until MZ was shot and flipped godfather.
The moral of the story: a town Adam would be more interested in the discussion. Shooting before town has had a real chance to consider and discuss is a scum move. It was so in the only other game with a similar mechanic and it is so here.
I browsed Keirathi's filter in what seems to be his only scumgame ever and I agree that he was active and manipulative there. However, he now has a ton of town games loading on pressure to perform as scum. I wouldn't put too much stock in Keirathi's scum meta. His play is still wildly different from his town meta, which is far more developed.
I still don't see enough in his play to consider him town.
For now, therefore:
##vote: Double Lynch
Lets just kill both of them. I think there's an excellent chance that one of them is scum and at the moment I cannot decide which one. I admit it seems highly unlikely they're both scum, but neither has given me a reason to think they're town. Seeing as we can kill both of them, I currently see no reason not to.
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On February 26 2013 20:59 Oatsmaster wrote:
Ok,
I agree that Adam's meta is different from his scum games, and that this was a really stupid, but exciting thing to do, but isnt exactly alignment indicative.
I also agree that him pointing out the meta differences HIMSELF and calling himself townie under not much pressure is scummy.
So Adam is null, leaning town cause I think that this was kinda too obvious to do it as scum, what was the point?
Keirathi.
I havent exactly been enthused about his activity so far, its not really alignment indicative though.
The few posts he has made make a lot of sense, and at this point I dont think he is scum. He pushed thrawn and adam, his comment about adam claiming that he was so townie makes sense and is a thing that I dont really think anyone else picked up on.
Yes I 180ed on Keirathi. Why you ask? Because after a little break, and rereading his filter without being irritated by his disappearance, I like what I see.
Great, you have a town read on both of the lynchable players. Who do you want to kill right now?
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No, I remember that. I called you useless for different reasons than Kush. Here is the follow-up:
On November 21 2012 11:56 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 11:51 Adam4167 wrote:On November 21 2012 11:03 Acrofales wrote:It's no more silly than a pressure vote off the bat in a normal setup  How do you know you don't gain anything from bringing vets. It's greymist and I am expecting minigames, unconfirmed masons and other shenanigans. Having a player like kush or adam there is NOT a good idea, even if they are town. You would paint me as useless before I even arrive to the thread? I'd like to hear your reasons, if you have them, or are you just discrediting people at random? I've played with you in 2 or 3 games (can't remember if you were in SSM atm) and you were completely inactive in all of them. So... yes, I have a reason: you sign up and then maybe, if we get lucky, get the 1 post a day that is the minimum requirement to play. Prove me wrong and I will be a happy man!
The only way in which I called your play similar to that of Kush is that I figured neither of you was useful to have around.
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I wouldn't classify shooting someone you have not even declared a decent scumread on as "cocky", I would classify it as disruptive. With cocky I meant play like this:
+ Show Spoiler +On November 22 2012 15:31 Adam4167 wrote:Kitaman, I liked what you were saying early yesterday but this post, I do not like: Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 21:42 kitaman27 wrote:
There are quite a few people who claim to be voting for sandroba on the basis that they claim to be able to easily differentiate his scum play from his town play. The only reason I see this as the case is that he commonly gets lazy and stops caring or posting as mafia. However, that's simply due to personal choice. How many people here other than maybe syllo are confidant they can identify a scum sandro when he remains active? Having played with him in pypi (an election game), I know he is quite capable of fooling most people when there is something he wants.
I'm quite puzzled by the fact that marv hasn't run for election. As being one of the most active players recently, I think he would be fairly confident at being able to gain support for himself. As town, I know I want to be the leader because that is the only way to directly increase our chances of success. marv however appears to want to avoid the spotlight and participate in an advising role or at least gauge the support he has. Could you explain this decision?
Work time. I'll try to start identifying some town players when I get back if I'm confident enough. Why are you trying to ward people away from voting for sandroba? You are fear mongering that he 'might' be turning over a new-leaf as scum and as such, shouldn't vote for him on that basis. So far, all that you've done to indicate that you think sandroba is scum is to colour his name in red (along with syllo and marv) with no other explanation. Care to go into detail about why you think he is scum? Calling out a veteran. On November 23 2012 00:44 Adam4167 wrote:
I like how syllogism is thinking.
##vote syllogism Justified sheeping. There's some more of this. In general, you are less inclined to blend and more inclined to speak your mind.
While going over your CT filter I found:
On November 25 2012 13:21 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 12:53 Hapahauli wrote:On November 25 2012 12:50 Adam4167 wrote:On November 25 2012 12:10 Dienosore wrote:
k, if I'm leader, I would take:
Oats
Clarity
Phagga
These might change after I do a bit more digging. So far, though, they are the only ones who my maps indicate as not connected with any suspected scum. That team is adequate. Dienosore and Oats were successful on the day 1 mission. Clarity, as I stated previously, was obviously scum when he rolled scum in Newbie Mini XXX. Looks much closer to his Mario Mini play style, where he was town. Add on top of that, he was sandrobas' attempted mislynch. Phagga looks just as townie as the last time I mentioned him. ##Vote: Dienosore I'm a bit skeptical about Phagga, and you haven't mentioned him much in your filter. I'm much more null on him than you are - can you give me the run-down about why he's so townie? I find him townie because of his attitude towards the game and its what was lacking in sandroba's play. He sees something he considers strange, so he questions the person on it to try and gauge what the persons motives are, and hopefully gain some insight into their alignment. Some examples: link1link2link3I find scum rarely do this, as they would rather just pounce on the person without actually giving them a chance to explain their behaviour, just in case the person has a reason for what they're doing, then the scum has to go find someone else to fabricate a case on. This is fake-able as scum, yes, but giving people a chance to explain themselves makes your job much harder.
Bolded part sounds exactly like what you just did to Keirathi, heh?
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Zare, do you conclude that Adam is scum? Or Keirathi is scum? Or both are scum? Or neither?
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On February 26 2013 23:01 iamperfection wrote:
adam is a retard but kier is more likely to be scum he should die.
Why does adam's action look like "retard town" and not like scum to you?
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@Iamp, Hapa, Alderan: explain to me why Adam's situation is different from Meapak's shot in Bang Bang Mafia 2.
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On February 27 2013 00:48 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 00:47 Acrofales wrote:
@Iamp, Hapa, Alderan: explain to me why Adam's situation is different from Meapak's shot in Bang Bang Mafia 2. Not familiar with it. Got a link?
you know that the TL search button works just as well for you as it does for me?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340480
Day 3 was the shot, and Ace actually updates the important posts links.
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@Adam: I have been giving you time to sort out your thoughts, yet you STILL haven't explained why you suddenly saw Keirathi as so deep red that you felt the need to duel him then and there. The closest you get is:
On February 26 2013 17:31 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2013 17:22 yamato77 wrote:
Despite my reads on the two of you before this, I will say that this was a truly horrid decision.
Going to have to sit on this for a while. How was this horrible? I think hes scum, he's suspicious of me (but not directly calling me scum). Half the town thinks hes scum, half the town has me null or worse. It should provide a wealth of information, if not a scum death.
Which is a 50% OMGUS and 50% sheep.
You stated the reason for dueling was because you trust your own scumreads, yet that is not what it looks like at the moment. Explain clearly why you suddenly saw red on Keirathi.
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On February 27 2013 00:56 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 00:47 Acrofales wrote:
@Iamp, Hapa, Alderan: explain to me why Adam's situation is different from Meapak's shot in Bang Bang Mafia 2. Didn't see the spoiler in your post. It went about as well as I thought it would. He shot someone, and was then shot and flipped GF. Thats exactly why I would assume scum wouldn't do it. Pretty far from optimal play imo....
Okay, what's the reason town would do it?
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On February 27 2013 01:06 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2013 10:06 Adam4167 wrote:
This started 30 minutes after i went to bed, bleh =(
I agree with Yamato, If i see scum, i'll make my case and duel them.
This was literally his first post. Terrible play, and really set town back because I think we were making some headway, but he did exactly what he said he was going to.
So lets go from a townie viewpoint:
1. Make post saying you'll duel whoever you want whenever you want.
2. Get told it's dumb and back down from that point (at least the whenever part).
3. Do it anyway, with no justification.
How does this thought process make sense? Also, if you think Adam is a terrible town player go read his other games: he's not. As town, he is outspoken and cocky, but meticulous about his reads and careful about his actions. Why is he suddenly throwing caution to the wind to duel someone he has an unexplained scumread on?
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On February 27 2013 01:09 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 01:06 iamperfection wrote:On February 27 2013 00:59 Alderan wrote:On February 27 2013 00:56 iamperfection wrote:
if he here one more thing about oh we need information or crap like that i swear to god im going to jump off a bridge.
We need to lynch scum and for those saying killing both isnt taking a stance it is. It means i can see arguments for either one being scum. Taking a stance?... wat.... Hey town, how about we not take a stance on things like double lynching townies. can kill adam for being stupid
can kill kier for being useless Neither of those are good enough reasons to lynch. So again, let's NOT "take a stand". you know something i dont? I know that one being stupid and one being useless is not reason enough to lynch both. If I see some significant scum evidence on BOTH then I would advocate a double lynch, but because it's fairly certain they are not both scum then what you are proposing is essentially a random lynch.
So lets say we lynch Keirathi. Atm I'd say there's a fair chance he flips scum, but I am nowhere near sure enough to bet the game on it. That means Adam gets off free.
If Keirathi flips scum, that is awesome. If he flips town, then we are virtually forced to lynch Adam tomorrow. Possibly resulting in another mislynch, because it turns out he really was just a stupid townie and not scum.
If we lynch Adam and he flips "stupid townie", then Keirathi might still be scum. So far Keirathi has made absolutely no move toward scumhunting (past his case on Adam, which in hindsight isn't nearly as bad as it looked when he made it, but is still not stellar).
So at the moment, a double lynch looks like by far the best option. It also leaves us with the maximum time (48 hours) and if either Adam or Keirathi start to look way more townie than they do now, we can always just lynch one of them.
If we were to lynch one of them right now, my first choice would absolutely be Adam, but I still like the Keirathi lynch too. Chance of both being scum is tiny, but given that I estimate the chance of Adam being scum at 75% and Keirathi being scum at 60%, that means my estimate of at least one being scum is 90%. A 1 for 1 trade seems good to me at the moment and a 90% chance at a 1 for 1 trade feels better than a 75% chance at lynching a scum.
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On February 27 2013 01:24 zarepath wrote:
Looking through Keirathi's filter, I don't have a full town read on him, but he doesn't look nearly as scummy as Sylencia or Thrawn, and not as suspicious as Dienosore, and certainly not as counterproductive to town goals as Adam.
The problem is that only Keirathi and Adam are up for lynch, and while I think three other people are more likely to be scum than either of these two, the question now is: Who is scummier? And while most of Adam's scummy traits can also be attributed to the Insane Town persona that is chasing him, he still has far more scummy traits than Keirathi does.
If there weren't nightly scum kills, I would want to no-lynch. This is a bad pairing; the only people who wanted Keirathi in a duel were Adam and Thrawn, and the only people who wanted Adam in a duel were Adam -- and if Adam is town, then scum.
I think we can safely conclude there are nightly scum kills, because Marv died and I don't think we have an insane vigilante running around. An SK with KP when scum doesn't have any would be extremely imbalanced. It's possible they have limited KP, but unless they have serious power roles, I don't see much balance reason to assume they don't just have a standard 1 KP (maybe even with a vig power or so, because 1 KP seems low for a 15-player game).
Talking about night actions, there have been no hit or roleblock claims. I just assumed everybody knows how to react, but just in case: if you were hit or roleblocked and know about it, claim that shit.
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On February 27 2013 01:29 zarepath wrote:
Why would scum suddenly throw caution to the wind to duel someone they have an unexplained read on? That's what I can't figure out.
I can think of some serious association reasons, which I don't want to get into until we actually flip some of these people.
An advantage, that is free from unflipped association, is obviously stopping what was clearly a good, productive discussion in town, with both Thrawn and Keirathi, the major scumspects, participating. If Marv and I are on the right track with our town reads, then scum is already in trouble. Shutting down productive discussion is important. Look at what happened? The conversation veered radically off-track and is now a minefield of futility discussing Adam's meta, instead of focusing on scumhunting in the game.
If you think you can argue yourself out of getting lynched, with the "that shit is too crazy for scum to pull"-defense, you might even underestimate the risk.
The alternative to killing Adam is killing Keirathi. I currently don't feel too happy about killing him without also killing Adam.
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On February 27 2013 01:44 Oatsmaster wrote:
Wait what?
How did you get those numbers, looks way too random.
I do not think that double lynching is the answer, because there is one less nightkill/lynch scum need to do to win.
There arent 25 players in this game, there are 15 so we cannot be casual about lynches and killing someone to be 'safe'
How do you figure that? How do you even know how many scum and how many town there are? How do you know how much KP there is?
If I make some basic assumptions, then all mislynching 2 townies on one day does is change the last day from mylo to lylo. However, if we mislynch Adam and Keirathi on consecutive days, then we have wasted an entire cycle and moved us a day closer to mylo.
I'm not saying I will hold to the double lynch regardless of what happens, but I honestly don't see how we can let Adam run loose, given the risk of a mislynch on Keirathi.
For me the following stands fairly clearly in my brain:
- Lynching Keirathi means we have to lynch Adam, because if Keirathi is town, then we are virtually forced to lynch Adam tomorrow anyway, so getting it over with now gives us better chances.
- Lynching Adam means Keirathi might be allowed to go, depending on his play. At the moment I feel Keirathi has a real chance of flipping scum, so I prefer a double lynch.
The only situation this doesn't hold is if Adam suddenly becomes the most townie town anybody has ever seen or Keirathi claims scum.
If we lynch both and get a 1-1 trade, then using the same basic assumptions above, we remain at exactly the same number of mislynches until town loss.
The assumptions are: 4 scum, no SK, 1 KP per night. This makes it a 3-mislynch=town loss game (given the night start), which is a reasonable assumption from a balance pov.
Regarding my percentages: they're gut feeling, they are somewhat arbitrary, because quantifying what my gut is telling me about how likely someone is to flip scum is hard to quantify. However, the general principle holds. If you feel there is a decent chance that both will flip scum, then lynching both to ensure a 1-1 trade is not a bad idea at all.
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On February 27 2013 02:17 yamato77 wrote:
I am not as interested in seeing Keirathi die now, regardless of Adam's flip. I disagree with Acro there completely. The correct conclusion to come to here is that Adam is the better lynch of the two, as I outlined. No matter what Adam flips, Keir was legitimately hunting him as mafia, I believe.
That you disagree with me is because you haven't properly read my posts. I am also less interested in a Keir flip than an Adam flip at this point. However, I am not UNinterested in a Keir flip.
That is what is troubling me at the moment. If we kill Adam and he flips town, we will have wasted a day and Keir will still be a useless lurker with a good chance of flipping scum.
I agree with the plan that they have to scumhunt their asses off.
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On February 27 2013 02:42 Hapahauli wrote:Oh damnit sniped by Oats. Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 02:37 Oatsmaster wrote:On February 27 2013 02:18 Hapahauli wrote:
Thing is, Kei has done nothing to show me that he's town, and having played a couple of games with Adam, I find it really doubtful that he'd pull something like this as scum. Wait what? How many games have you played with Kei? You are calling Keirathi scummy for not playing to his town meta or his scum meta, but Adam is not scum because he isnt playing to his scum meta, or his town meta as Acro showed. How did you get this reasoning? I've played a couple of games with Kei, and heavily obs'd some more games that he was in. And you're completely twisting my argument. Yes Kei is playing differently than I've seen him play as both alignments in the past. However, I'm voting Kei right now because Adam's actions make very little sense from a scum-Adam perspective (given meta, demeanor, bravery, etc), and Kei has given me no reason to think he's town.
If you take Adam's meta, demeanor and bravery into account, how can you ignore his town meta? He has never done anything remotely like pulling a stunt like this. Not in CT, not in WLIIA and not in LIX. The other games I recall from him are Hero where he was scum and a couple of games where he was modkilled for inactivity.
Please explain how meticulous Adam, who writes cautious cases deliberating different angles, suddenly throws caution to the wind and says "FUCK YOU, I'M PALMAR BITCHES". What part of Adam's town meta am I missing?
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EPT
