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I have looked over Cora's filter and am reassured in my earlier read of him. While it is possible he is mafia, he is playing an exceedingly good game.
Why Cora is scum:
1. Wanted Adam dead, but hammered Keirathi.
2. Wanted a double-lynch on Dieno/Syl.
However, his explanation for both these things is what makes me think these are townie things:
1. He just wanted to end it all and get on with the game. This does not sound like scum trying to take credit for a bus. He doesn't make up bullshit about how he suddenly saw that Adam was townie and Keir wasn't. No, he hadn't bothered doing much analysis on either (during the lynch he is still tunneling Syl, and to a lesser extent Oats). He doesn't want a double-lynch and the deadlocked situation was cruising for that, so he just hammered Keir to get it over with. He states this bluntly when questioned about it. It sounds honest.
2. He is completely tunneled on Syl being scum and keeps advancing ridiculous proposals about how Syl's lynch gives more information. If we had lynched Syl and he had flipped town, Cora would have looked terrible. Scum doesn't associate themselves with either/or situations: 1-1 trades are terrible. Even if we assume for a second Syl is scum, then he was pushing for a double-lynch of 2 of his scumbuddies. This is insane.
And then there are the other reasons in his filter:
1. I have said this before, but it is worth repeating: Yamato vs. Cora sounded like the stereotypical fight that two aggressive townies get into. Scum tends to back down and not argue over stupid crap.
2. Generally interested in the game and figuring it out. Particularly in the Yamato/Hapa lynch I got the feeling that he was reading and analysing filters and other people's arguments. He was an early adopter of the Hapa lynch, while a scum could, at this point, easily have hung back on the Yamato is scum and probably saved his scumbuddy.
Finally, Hapa's filter also gives some weak evidence for Cora being town.
Hapa has a scumread on Cora when it looks like there's a chance of pitting a Syl vs. Cora lynch. When Cora keeps tunneling Syl through the entire lynch and people start giving Cora townreads, Hapa agrees and Cora is town. His reads on Cora follow the general thread consensus, which means Hapa didn't really care about Cora and cared more about his own image with regards to Cora. This is more likely if Cora is town.
In closing, Cora was the last outsider that I felt I should analyse before really nailing down the Zapa vs. Alderan lynch. My conclusions are the same as they were before: Cora is town.
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Okay, it's almost time for the NK and if it is not Adam or me I will be very surprised. Just remember:
Adam is town because he wanted Dieno dead, dueled Keirathi and Hapa was being all weird about the whole thing.
Yamato is town because his behaviour is townie and he dueled Hapa when he had plenty of other options that left Hapa the scummer out of danger.
Sylencia is town because he dueled Dieno when he could have dueled Cora, and because Hapa really wanted a double-lynch.
Snarfs is town because his behaviour is townie and Hapa wanted him dead until the thread didn't agree with him anymore.
Oats is town because his behaviour, and both Dieno and Hapa were trying to heap some cheap suspicion onto him.
Cora is town because his behaviour.
That leaves Zapa and Alderan. Make them duel each other. If Zapa duels someone else, insta-lynch him. If Zapa disappears and looks like he won't duel, lynch him. If he does lynch Alderan, play it like any other lynch. Give them time to make cases, defend themselves, etc. Don't just instalynch, or default to double-lynch. Keep thinking!
Alternative scenarios: I still have a slight worry about weirdness in the setup, due to the scum wincon being redacted. If scum gets lynched and it is not yet GG, then there may be an anti-town 3P. Adam is still my main candidate for 3P with some wonky wincon. 5 scum seems pretty damned imbalanced in a 15-player setup with a night start (basically, that means 2 mislynches is scum victory), so I would not worry too much about that.
If there is a NK, it is always a possibility that Alderan is not actually AFK, but just acting like he is, while he still sends in the NK. Don't take the presence of a NK as clear evidence that Alderan is not scum. If there is no NK, then I will still be alive and I'll do lynch-math after the daypost.
If there is a NK, assume it is 7-1. If you double-lynch Zapa and Alderan (not saying you should, play it one step at a time, but IF you do), the worst-case scenario is that everything I said above is wrong, and it's 4-1 at the next lynch. At this point re-evaluate EVERYBODY, as it means that scum has been playing a very very clever game throwing blame around indiscriminately at each other. You then have 2 single lynches to find the last scum.
Most important advice: do not get complacent and lazy. That's how towns lose a game which is all but won.
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Lol. In fact, I remembered it wrong and am a full half an hour late with my will. Lucky me.
Anyway:
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Lolololol. Single-lynch Alderan.
Worst-case scenario: he's town and we've been duped by scum. That means tomorrow it's 6-1. We only lost our double-lynch, but gained an information advantage over a blind double-lynch.
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Fuck it, I want to do this.
##duel Alderan
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And yes, I did think this through. The most likely scenario is that the guy who has been AFK for 4 days was not around to send in the KP. We just kill him.
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On March 07 2013 00:21 Oatsmaster wrote:
Ok what do you think about this.
Acro conveniently mentions that there may be no nightkill, there is no nightkill.
Then instead of waiting for zarepath to duel, duels Alderan himself.
So therefore Alderan is basically dead. So if Alderan flips town we lynch zare and Acro.
I am completely okay with you and your conspiracy theories.
But for now just KISS. The possibility of no NK entered my mind this morning when I realized there really was a decent possibility that Alderan was scum. He HAS been AFK, and it was entirely possible that if he is scum, doesn't send in the NK. So yes, I mentioned that possibility, mainly because I didn't want people thinking that the presence of a NK somehow exculpated him.
However, the absence of a NK definitely implicates him. By this point, a medic save seems unlikely, and there haven't been any RB claims either. That indicates that the only reason there was no NK is because scum didn't send it in. Alderan being the last scum is by far the most likely reason for that.
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No medic, because Marv is dead, despite being the completely, blatantly obvious medic target on N1. Additionally some balance speculation: in a 15-player game in which scum only has 1 KP, a flexible protective role is a bit too powerful imho.
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Didn't ask before dueling Alderan, because thread consensus before the lack of NK was pretty damned obvious: Zapa or Alderan is scum. Adam leaned towards Alderan even without the lack of a NK.
No notifications at all means there might be a town RBer who stopped the scum KP. I guess I should have waited for that. But I still like Ockham's Razor on that.
If the medic wasn't paying attention N0 he should STILL have defaulted to protecting Marv, simply by glancing over the playlist and picking the highest-profile-player.
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Okay, that screws shit up. Well, double-lynch if you have to, but when I flip town, remember to lynch Zapa afterwards.
Cora, you need to explain ALL your night actions and why.
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On March 07 2013 00:43 zarepath wrote:
Acro, why do you feel that Syl can't be scum? He's made fewer reads than anyone else and has hardly posted at all.
Sylencia is town because he dueled Dieno when he could have dueled Cora, and because Hapa really wanted a double-lynch.
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Errr, of course that is not right. Dieno could have dueled someone else, instead of Syl.
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That still leaves Hapa wanting to double-lynch Dieno and Syl.
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Dafuq?!
Snarfs: explain your night actions :O
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Looked over your filter. That is actually believable.
A credible medic counterclaim. It's possible there are two medic roles, but it seems VERY unlikely. So... Cora was setting that up for when Alderan flips town?
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Oh, never mind, lol. Well played, Snarfs.
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Yeah, that claim would never have worked. It would have delayed town and maybe gotten Cora lynched. But when Cora flips blue, that is byebye Snarfs. Still, a decent counter-claim.
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Traitor makes perfect sense. Scum didn't know who he was, which is why Hapa's reads on him are all over the place.
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Anyway, this was a true town effort. No townie stood alone and everybody contributed. GG everybody on a flawless victory (although it may have gotten messy if Snarfs hadn't conceded).
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EPT
