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Alright so sno_man why are you so focused on whether or not WB claimed? while I agree that he could have soft claimed this seems like something you wouldnt want to draw attention too especially before n1. Which you did in at least 4 semi recent posts.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 13 2013 09:44 Sn0_Man wrote:
You aren't helping yourself glurio.
I think I may be willing to vote Sylencia, but my read on him is Blue or Scum, not green. I read somewhere that people who seem withdrawn and preoccupied with blue roles (like Syl was when we talked about WB's pseudo-blue claim) are often blue themselves. (Somewhere is in Ver's analysis of XXX). I really didn't want to lynch Syl because he might flip blue but his contributions haven't really been in line with what I would hope a town member would try to bring to the table.
So basically, I'm willing to consolidate on Syl but I want you guys to understand the risk that he flips blue is decently high IMO. On February 13 2013 06:54 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2013 14:01 warbaby wrote:
I won't claim my actual role right now (just that my alignment is not mafia rofl), but if we get to a point later (d2+) where others are considering claiming, I will not hesitate this time. Show nested quote +On February 11 2013 20:57 warbaby wrote:
I could give away more information (like a blue role) later on, but I haven't done that yet Between the two of these it looks like you are saying "I'm blue but I'm not gonna out and say it". VTs traditionally have no real problem mentioning that they are VT (afaik?). You are more like "I'm town, but I won't tell you what special kind of town". Which means you are a special kind. Which is a soft claim. Even if you didn't mean it that way, at least half the thread read it that way. On February 13 2013 04:41 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2013 04:34 Mandalor wrote:
Right now, I would vote Sylencia.
His response so far hasn't changed anything for me concerning his odd behavior with warbaby. WB never soft-claimed anything - yet Syl gives us this odd post saying he's most likely vig or scum. That is the opposite of helpful for town. I can't think of a use for this information at this point in the game. Elimination surely can't be it when we don't know any role yet.
That combined with his uncharacteristic (I think? at least have that in my mind) lurking (yeah yeah I know, but I have posted more here than I did in any game yet) makes him my top scum read for now.
If nothing big comes up that will be my vote for tonight (will probably have to vote in 4 or 5 hours and call it a day). There we go! See, I can think of an explanation for most of what Syl is doing, but I'm not going to call you out if you can't. I think WB soft-claimed, but I can definitely see how others think he didn't. I like you you picked a name, gave a real reason that was consistent with your earlier posts, and didn't even need to make it too long. Obviously this doesn't prove you are town but it certainly helps your chances of not being lynched today. For now, I won't ask more but keep in mind that we expect more of THIS POST as often as is reasonable for you to manage (I know its time consuming). On February 13 2013 06:56 Sn0_Man wrote:
To further explain WB, the fact that you even went so far as to mention roles and blue and whatever looks bad. "I'm Town" looks fine and doesn't claim VT or blue, but "I won't tell you my role (other than I'm town)" looks leading/breadcrumby/soft-claim.
Now I know this is kind of contradictory for me to post this night one but I was looking for someone to make a case on and tbh this is all I really noticed on you and figured I should share my thoughts before everyone assumed I had gone full on lurker when I'm really in the middle of my two busiest work days. so while you not super scummy to me I would like to know why you keep pointing this out. In my opinion you should have saved this for day2 discussion at the very least.
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On a slightly different topic:
On February 12 2013 15:23 Mocsta wrote:
You know what, *this* post made me realise where geript commentary came from, specifically claim town vs think town.
I would like to hear an explanation of this line Mocsta. I asked before but I don't remember much of an answer.
+ Show Spoiler [Full Post/Context] +On February 12 2013 15:23 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2013 15:03 Sn0_Man wrote:On February 12 2013 14:41 Mocsta wrote:
lastly. Sno. Can i pls have thoughts on geript and the chainsaw defense.
You came up with a hilarious association based OMGUS accusation because everybody who questions you is clearly scum in your eyes? Okay thats a bit harsh. You've shown real difference (IMO) in your play this game compared to 35. Still, the fact that your defense against geript is "you are attacking me to clear warbaby" is a thinner defense than WoS's "I'm so sorry plz don't lynch me" Defense. That said, his case isn't exactly damning... I still don't see it as a "chainsaw defence of a scumbuddy". I mean seriously, thats a very heavy association to make day-1. All he is saying is that you like to shit up the thread, which is true (improvement is noted). If you think Warbaby and geript are scumteam, and you are highly suspicious of WoS as well, I can almost guarantee you are wrong somewhere. There is always a lurker scum. You know what, *this* post made me realise where geript commentary came from, specifically claim town vs think town. just keep in mind please; chainsaw defense doesnt apply to just defending scum buddy. its basically just attacking the someones attacker personally (instead of their argument). So can be applied to defending town. As I said before in that "Case": as town, would you defend someone Day1 with such a method? The only reason i can think of is if you were masoned with someone; hence KNEW they were town. There are simply better avenues to approach the situation. warbaby is a scum read of mine; yes so makes sense to say its association based. BUT, note, we can only vote one person. I think you will notice my vote is actually on geript because his actions have made him a stronger read. (its just I am continuing to pressure my other read warbaby)
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On February 14 2013 02:07 Sevryn wrote:Alright so sno_man why are you so focused on whether or not WB claimed? while I agree that he could have soft claimed this seems like something you wouldnt want to draw attention too especially before n1. Which you did in at least 4 semi recent posts. + Show Spoiler +On February 13 2013 09:44 Sn0_Man wrote:
You aren't helping yourself glurio.
I think I may be willing to vote Sylencia, but my read on him is Blue or Scum, not green. I read somewhere that people who seem withdrawn and preoccupied with blue roles (like Syl was when we talked about WB's pseudo-blue claim) are often blue themselves. (Somewhere is in Ver's analysis of XXX). I really didn't want to lynch Syl because he might flip blue but his contributions haven't really been in line with what I would hope a town member would try to bring to the table.
So basically, I'm willing to consolidate on Syl but I want you guys to understand the risk that he flips blue is decently high IMO. On February 13 2013 06:54 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2013 14:01 warbaby wrote:
I won't claim my actual role right now (just that my alignment is not mafia rofl), but if we get to a point later (d2+) where others are considering claiming, I will not hesitate this time. Show nested quote +On February 11 2013 20:57 warbaby wrote:
I could give away more information (like a blue role) later on, but I haven't done that yet Between the two of these it looks like you are saying "I'm blue but I'm not gonna out and say it". VTs traditionally have no real problem mentioning that they are VT (afaik?). You are more like "I'm town, but I won't tell you what special kind of town". Which means you are a special kind. Which is a soft claim. Even if you didn't mean it that way, at least half the thread read it that way. On February 13 2013 04:41 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2013 04:34 Mandalor wrote:
Right now, I would vote Sylencia.
His response so far hasn't changed anything for me concerning his odd behavior with warbaby. WB never soft-claimed anything - yet Syl gives us this odd post saying he's most likely vig or scum. That is the opposite of helpful for town. I can't think of a use for this information at this point in the game. Elimination surely can't be it when we don't know any role yet.
That combined with his uncharacteristic (I think? at least have that in my mind) lurking (yeah yeah I know, but I have posted more here than I did in any game yet) makes him my top scum read for now.
If nothing big comes up that will be my vote for tonight (will probably have to vote in 4 or 5 hours and call it a day). There we go! See, I can think of an explanation for most of what Syl is doing, but I'm not going to call you out if you can't. I think WB soft-claimed, but I can definitely see how others think he didn't. I like you you picked a name, gave a real reason that was consistent with your earlier posts, and didn't even need to make it too long. Obviously this doesn't prove you are town but it certainly helps your chances of not being lynched today. For now, I won't ask more but keep in mind that we expect more of THIS POST as often as is reasonable for you to manage (I know its time consuming). On February 13 2013 06:56 Sn0_Man wrote:
To further explain WB, the fact that you even went so far as to mention roles and blue and whatever looks bad. "I'm Town" looks fine and doesn't claim VT or blue, but "I won't tell you my role (other than I'm town)" looks leading/breadcrumby/soft-claim. Now I know this is kind of contradictory for me to post this night one but I was looking for someone to make a case on and tbh this is all I really noticed on you and figured I should share my thoughts before everyone assumed I had gone full on lurker when I'm really in the middle of my two busiest work days. so while you not super scummy to me I would like to know why you keep pointing this out. In my opinion you should have saved this for day2 discussion at the very least.
Oh hadn't seen your post when I posted mine.
People kept misunderstanding what happened with Warbaby. He thought he didn't blue claim, everybody else thought he did. That misunderstanding was a large part of multiple arguments which I didn't agree with. Especially since people who were voting for Syl did so because of how he analyzed what happened there.
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so you were defending syl?
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On February 14 2013 02:16 Sevryn wrote:
so you were defending syl?
No, mostly I was trying to clear up what had happened. Two of the posts you quoted are me explaining to Warbaby how everybody else saw the posts he made, since there was a serious disconnect between us and him regarding what he had said. It is fairly obvious that town is divided and sees things different ways (as evidenced by the vote) and I've been trying to get us back on the same page.
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Alright Sev, since you are clearly here, Lets hear a run-down of your reads. Plenty of people would like to lynch you btw.
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Im aware of that and am currently trying to find any leads I have the problem is If I make any post about about lurkers it makes me seem kind of hypocritical. looking back my case on glurio while I would like to say I made a great case I really can't it wasnt that conclusive it was enough for me to think he was scum and vote for him but I didnt really excpect to lynch him the main reason I voted for him at first was to try and generate discussion and then when I got back there really hadn;t been anyone else brought up I was comfortable lynching so I would look at how we had a lynch with only three votes and why mocsta and cora decided that glurio was the best lynch. I think cora especially because he dropped the WB case for glurio saying he thought the case wouldnt go through when there were minimal votes on anyone.
On February 13 2013 08:57 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2013 08:53 WaveofShadow wrote:On February 13 2013 08:50 cDgCorazon wrote:On February 13 2013 08:47 geript wrote:
Point out what you'd like. I haven't made a case against many people; neither, iirc, have I weighed in on 0 post non-participant vs low count lurker. Those facts are hardly relevant.
I'd point out that no one has really made a case against you at all. As far as I see it, your agenda has been to make the town atmosphere negative. Yes, it takes two to get into a flame war and I'm not giving war baby any credit avoiding those spats either. In the least Mocsta has shown that he's willing to listen, even though I think his vote for me is weak at best. You on the other hand have tunnel visioned on your target of the moment at each point. Scum hunting is fine and being aggressive is fine. But the belligerent tone you've taken at many points, especially over exceptionally minor things, isn't beneficial to the town. Rather, it seems to me like you want everyone to spend their time scrutinizing your target so that they avoid you entirely. Your "We haven't gotten scum day 1 lynching lurkers, so lets try a new tack" comment from a while back (would quote but still on phone) keeps on sounding like "Let's lynch a loud voice" to me. In my experience the louder voices are almost always town; I even think one of the guides says something similar.
Now you're going to ask why I'm not voting for you (likely), but I still think that you're misguided right now and not an active dissident. So my vote remains in place for right now. Please explain to me why being aggressive is scummy. If we're going to keep thinking that all "loud voices" are town, at least one scum is going to slip by for a long time. Take a look at my scum play from NMM XXXIII. Why do you think I got away with being scum for so long? Because I was active and looking pro-town. If we take out a scum with a "loud voice" now, our chances of winning go way up. Speaking of loud voices, you were SO adamant for so long on WB lynch now that's it's close to lynch time you unvote? What is your rationale? Cause it's obvious no one is going to vote with me. Sometimes, one's agenda needs to be pushed back to benefit the group as a whole. I didn't back down before because I wasn't sure how the votes were going to be consolidated. Since it's obvious town does not want to try something different for D1, it looks like it's not going to be WB.
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also all the wasted votes are terrible.
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On February 14 2013 02:50 Sevryn wrote:
also all the wasted votes are terrible.
I really wanted to kill some people for their votes, but I can't exactly call half the thread scum for tossing away their votes so... asdl;fjkl;asdjkl;jkljs
This game sucks.
BTW that wasn't exactly a list of reads. A quick note on everybody is preferred. Doesn't even have to be more than like 3 words.
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WaveofShadow seems to be tunneling me because he was convinced one of me or glurio is scum
Sn0_Man- null reads after you explained your reasoning behind those posts I posted earlier
ObviousOne -cant really say yet
warbaby -leaning scum but nothing convincing tbh
geript- null read
zarepath - leaning town for me but that might just be because he was pointing out how WoS case didnt make a ton of sense
Mocsta - talks a lot but not really sure about him
cDgCorazon -would like him to explain his vote
Mandalor - seems like he doesnt say much even when he posts
Sylencia - null
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On February 14 2013 01:44 warbaby wrote:
I sort of agree, but I also think Cora's play is less aggressive than last game. I'm going to look at all of his past games, and see if there is any pattern to the meta that's relevant here. Geript's case on Cora does strike me as a little bit odd, the way it relies on comments by WoS, Mocsta, and Sn0, and not just Corazon's actions and posts on their own.
If by WoS you mean Sylencia, then I guess? But the Mocsta and Syl quotes are only to prove that there was enough of a desire to lynch warbaby. My points can be summed as:
1. Cora showed interest in lynching active-blendy > LAL or scum read > lurker (dependent on how you look at it)
2. Cora 'wanted' to vote for warbaby (or secondarily myself)
3. Cora by his own admission has Glurio's flip either make or break the case vs warbaby
4. There clearly was enough votes willing to put a lead on either warbaby or myself.
Synthesis: Cora's actions are not in consistent with either his policy preference or his "take your vote seriously" ideas. His unwillingness to vote warbaby means something which IMO is that he doesn't want to get blamed for a bad case and town/flip.
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Zarepath's Reads
by Zarepath
9-Bit
+ Show Spoiler +
Nothing to see. Looking forward to a modkill or replacement.
Sevryn
+ Show Spoiler +
I had a null read on him at the lynch -- he jumped on my fake case, added a little to it, tunneled glurio. But post-flip, he went very proactively defensive for it, saying that everybody was too focused on glurio/himself as the dichotomy. But HE was focused on glurio. Now that glurio's flipped, I want to see what his reads are on EVERYONE. If he was so certain about glurio, who does he think is scum now?
Slight scum read on Sevryn.
WaveofShadow
+ Show Spoiler +
I see him as being mostly proactive with a variety of reads. I don't understand what his big controversial post quoting Mocsta and Sn0_Man was about, other than the fact they wanted to go after lurkers and their plan failed. I read him as genuinely trying to help town.
Sn0_Man
+ Show Spoiler +
His filter's filled with a lot of theory, policy, and meta talk. He interacts directly with a lot of other posters, and is very active. But towards the end of Day 1, he was practically begging other people to make cases he could bandwagon onto, finally settling on Sevryn. He is active enough that I don't consider him scummy, but trudging through his filter doesn't make me think he's absolutely pro-town. Leaning town, but not as sure as I used to be.
ObviousOne
+ Show Spoiler +
His assessment of Day 1 was pretty useful. I agree with Mocsta that we need to see his reads. Null, slightly to town based on his opening, but only slightly.
Warbaby
+ Show Spoiler +
Starts with general policy talk, his third post is a list, needlessly antagonistic to WoS, bunch of meta, insults everybody's mafia skills, tells people to mislynch him, prefers voting lurkers over scum, constantly asserts that he has no idea who the scum are, his final top 3 are sylencia, sevryn, then glurio. Is now focused on sevryn. I don't think he's as scummy as I've thought of him now that I've read thorugh the whole filter; I have a null read on him now, depending on how his case on Sevryn develops.
geript
+ Show Spoiler +
Geript was one of the only ones who really dug into my fake WoS case. He bought it, but only after he went through it and actually criticized a few of the points. He now has a case on Corazon that is at least original, and it's labeled Case 1, suggesting he has another case coming. I read him as leaning town.
Mocsta
+ Show Spoiler +
Super active first half of Day 1, went to "actively lurking" since after pouting about knowing when he's not wanted, and has done a lot of things that I see as pro-town -- encouraging two names so we can have clear bandwagons, picking apart bad logic, etc. I read him as town. The only other thing I'll note is that it's odd how little he's contributed (although he still has tons of filter). I think he's legit going for a different strat, but will keep an eye on him, obviously.
Corazon
+ Show Spoiler +
His Day 1 seemed pretty typical of his town meta, but he really pushed on his WB vote but didn't actively try to persuade anyone else; he just kept re-quoting his case, and then when the lynch was getting confusing, instead of asking for consolidation onto his TOP READ that he's had all day, instead he bandwagons onto Glurio. It's hard to judge any voting motivations from the Day 1 lynch, but this is suspicious to me. He gave a pretty town response to my WoS case, though. Null, leaning town.
Mandalor
+ Show Spoiler +
Mandalor's filter looks very scummy. Every other post is a list, the main thrust of his case on Sylencia has to do with blue talk, and the case for his final vote is not compelling at all. He just drops a random vote and checks out, doesn't even wish town luck. (To be fair, I did something similar because of time and RL constraints.) People's reactions to my vote on Mandalor were that they had town reads on him, but I'd like to ask you all what specifically makes him look town to you, because I don't see much. Reads SCUM
Sylencia
+ Show Spoiler +Pretty vocal opponent of RNG there at the beginning, then his activity fades from there. He speculates HARD on warbaby's possible blue roles, not necessarily a very pro-town thing to do in public on Day 1, and that is the biggest contribution he made at all. He said he hadn't read very many filters, admitted to tunneling warbaby, then voted for him. In the end, he posted this gem: On February 13 2013 09:54 Sylencia wrote:
.. What lol, I gave my reasons before and I'm voting for him to consolidate my thoughts on him. I will have to change my vote to glurio if required to stay alive though. Town don't change their votes in order to stay alive; town believe in their scum reads or are willing to work with other people's scum reads. THey certianly don't do so just to stay alive; lynching scum is more important than a town's individual life. This quote makes it sound as though his number one concern is not being lynched. It's worth going through all the filters, apparently, because this was the last post in the final filter, and I think it's the biggest, latest scum tell.
In conclusion, people I think are suspicious and would like other's thoughts on:
Sevryn
Warbaby
Mandalor
Sylencia
Obv and 9-Bit's replacement also deserve scrutiny.
But right now my two biggest reads are Sylencia and Mandalor. I think people should look at my brief reads on them, read their filters, and I want to hear your own conclusions.
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On February 14 2013 04:09 geript wrote: His unwillingness to vote warbaby means something which IMO is that he doesn't want to get blamed for a bad case and town/flip.
But then why would he ensure a different town flip? He looks equally as bad, possibly even moreso for skipping out on his "top read" in order to mislynch a townie.
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If there are 2 clear wagons, one on confirmed town and one on a null read, you get on the null read one to save the confirmed town.
That is why Syl would change his vote to save himself.
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@Zare Because his vote movement at least superficially seems defensible. I think he was expecting a greater shift of votes in a few directions and it just didn't go down how he expected.
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On February 14 2013 04:16 Sn0_Man wrote:
If there are 2 clear wagons, one on confirmed town and one on a null read, you get on the null read one to save the confirmed town.
That is why Syl would change his vote to save himself.
And you think that those circumstances applied at all? The wagon on confirmed town would have to be on HIM, and there was no such wagon.
YOu can sya he was proactively saying it in case the situation arose, but why bring it up in the first place? I'm saying that it shows that saving himself was at the forefront of his mind, and he was willing to not lynch scum to do so.
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I'm working my way through the game backwards and I'm just going to ask questions and make observations as I have them.
On February 13 2013 15:17 Mocsta wrote:
P.S.
Your last game was like 6-8months ago according to profile; since it only shows town games: how would you describe your town play; as in, aside from being active what do you think we can expect from your play?
Who better to judge this than you all? I wouldn't say I'm stellar at mafia in general. That comes with time!
On February 13 2013 10:35 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2013 10:21 warbaby wrote:On February 13 2013 10:18 Mocsta wrote:On February 13 2013 10:14 warbaby wrote:On February 13 2013 10:09 Mocsta wrote:On February 13 2013 10:07 warbaby wrote:On February 13 2013 10:03 Mocsta wrote:
Look, we need a game plan moving forward; this obviously wasnt ideal
can i suggest we stop talking about blues
(im looking at you sn0)... with NK this cycle; lets not help out the scum pls
warbaby
you were the only person dead set against glurio (that commented)
Can you please give more reason than meta to why you thought he was town; you said my reasoning was sound, yet you refused to jump on... I want to know why. I never said I thought he was town, I said I didn't think he was scum. My read wasn't any better than null, in the post I linked earlier. You insinuating I called him town is putting WIFOM into my mouth, which is not what I said. One of the people that lynched glurio is scum. I refuse to believe 3 towns lynched him. We need to focus on: Sevryn Mocsta cdgCorazon And perhaps we can find a scum. It's fine if you guys still want to make cases on me, but I didn't just lynch a townie. Sevryn seems the most questionable. He really needs to post a lot more to show he's not a lurky scum. True, i just read the post again; sorry for the misrepresentation. That you stood up for me, made me think you thought he was town. Not sure why you would step in to defend a "null' read; even now with hindsight, thats an odd move to make. Because why would I lynch, or agree to the lynch of, someone I have a null read on, when there are lurkers like sylencia (at the time) and sevryn still in the game? I tried to debunk the wack "glurio is a blendy scum like last game" wagon, and failed. It's not that I thought he was town, it was that I thought he was going to be lynched for incorrect reasons, compared to the other candidates. Right, so if I read right; it wasnt that you was sticking up for Glurio, it was that you wanted your wagon to take off (i.e Sylencia/Sevryn) If so, I can accept that. if you were sticking up for Glurio because he was null; thats really an odd thing to do (even with your explanation) I would have been happy with a wagon on sylencia or sevryn, or possibly zarepath and mandalor. I thought they were all potentially lurking harder/playing outside their normal town meta, moreso than glurio. Sorry bud, you're the one on the wagon that just lynched a town, not me. I don't need to explain my D1 votes any more (I explained them when I made them, so just check my filter). You need to explain your vote. You just lynched an active town player because you thought he was playing lurky scum like last game, no? But how can he be lurkier than players with 50% less posts? warbaby, I think you need to get your facts straight before you start shooting your gun #1 I actually pressured Glurio. Ohh btw I even pressured your "apparent top" scum read Sylencia #2 My reasoning for Glurio were sound enough for you to even suggested you agreed I dont even understand your comment in bold; are you talking about past games, because it is referenced as if you are discussing Glurio. My point stands; you were the only person that contested my reasoning; but then state you thought he was "null" FACT: Nobody sticks up for nulls reads without a hidden agenda. (e.g. promote your bandwagon or scum creating confusion) Null reads are the ones you watch the most carefully, to see how they react to pressure. Your post above, indicates you were not fussed about a wagon on a variety of people. Hence, there is absolutely NO REASON to contest the lynch if Glurio was "null" the way you did. Your Day1 behaviour from start to finish have been suspect as.
If I make an clear assumption you are scum: Its easy to see you tried to derail Glurio back to Sylencia, because you thought sylencia may have been more 'valuable' to town. Obviously this relies on a flip, so I wont jump to conclusions; but fuck me your actions are fishy warbaby.
@Mocsta do you yourself think Sylencia was more valuable to town than Glurio? Consider this given any hindsight based on anything Sylencia may have posted thus far N1. What does Sylencia offer to town that Glurio lacked?
Also, do you think WaveofShadow is trying to bait you into making association cases based on a town flip so you can look more scummy down the line if you're ever on another town lynch vote list?
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On February 14 2013 04:16 Sn0_Man wrote:
If there are 2 clear wagons, one on confirmed town and one on a null read, you get on the null read one to save the confirmed town.
That is why Syl would change his vote to save himself.
@Sn0_man I would have to go back through filters (currently re-reading the game backwards as I believe I just mentioned before) to check this. It's hard to judge whether or not "saving yourself" is scummy, but the best indicator to me is: did Syl have a read on Glurio before Syl was on deck to be lynched? Was there any mention of Glurio's alignment from Syl at any time? If it was town, I'll be very concerned.
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EPT
